Over 70's Isolation

[sadoldgit]

If we believe half of what the Daily Mail is saying (ie Coronavirus will run through to Spring 2021 and 80% of us will be affected with millions dying) then the affect on our society will be similar to a major war.

The virus is escalating in other European countries and will undoubtedly spread across the US and rest of the world.

By common consent the worst is yet to come

This puts our obsession with football into sharp contrast.

 

As each day passes and more information comes to light, the plight of Liverpool, Leeds and WBA becomes less of an issue. Hopefully the Mail are talking their usual ********, but it isn’t looking good.

[egg]

If we believe half of what the Daily Mail is saying (ie Coronavirus will run through to Spring 2021 and 80% of us will be affected with millions dying) then the affect on our society will be similar to a major war.

The virus is escalating in other European countries and will undoubtedly spread across the US and rest of the world.

By common consent the worst is yet to come

This puts our obsession with football into sharp contrast.

Yep, football is irrelevant for now.

 

If 60% infection rate is to be expected, and say 3% overall death rate, that's a lot of bodies. The only way to get the body count down is to keep infection rate down you would think.

[wadesmith]

I think a bit empathy could be used here. If you're 70 & a bloke statistically you've got about 12 years ahead of you. If the government then say you've got to self isolate for a lengthy I can understand why people over 70 may react in the negative. It's a worrying time for people, emotions are running high. Without getting too 'Spirit of Woodstock 69' here, this probably isn't the time to start turning on each other, it would be nice if people supported each other..or at the very least remained civil.

[austsaint]

As each day passes and more information comes to light, the plight of Liverpool, Leeds and WBA becomes less of an issue. Hopefully the Mail are talking their usual ********, but it isn’t looking good.

 

Sorry to derail a serious discussion, where quite rightly our Football deprivation is secondary - what is likely to happen if there isn't another ball kicked this season? Do Leeds and WBA spend another year in the Championship?

[sadoldgit]

I think a bit empathy could be used here. If you're 70 & a bloke statistically you've got about 12 years ahead of you. If the government then say you've got to self isolate for a lengthy I can understand why people over 70 may react in the negative. It's a worrying time for people, emotions are running high. Without getting too 'Spirit of Woodstock 69' here, this probably isn't the time to start turning on each other, it would be nice if people supported each other..or at the very least remained civil.

 

Instead of turning on the 70+ who don’t like the idea of shutting themselves away for months we should be asking why we aren’t adopting the advice of and working closely with the WHO in order to deal with this crisis.

[hypochondriac]

Instead of turning on the 70+ who don’t like the idea of shutting themselves away for months we should be asking why we aren’t adopting the advice of and working closely with the WHO in order to deal with this crisis.

We should be knocking them tories and that Mr Johnson. Amirite???

[wadesmith]

Instead of turning on the 70+ who don’t like the idea of shutting themselves away for months we should be asking why we aren’t adopting the advice of and working closely with the WHO in order to deal with this crisis.

 

Yeah, maybye, like everyone else I haven't got a clue my friend. I don't know how it's going to pan out, I don't know if either of us will ever see Saints win at home again (hopefully it's over by 2024) I haven't got a clue....but I do know that this probably isn't thread to be calling people 'f*cking thick'. Just my thoughts.

[Batman]

Yep, football is irrelevant for now.

 

If 60% infection rate is to be expected, and say 3% overall death rate, that's a lot of bodies. The only way to get the body count down is to keep infection rate down you would think.

 

around 1.2m in the UK alone and around 126m globally....

 

really?

[sadoldgit]

Yeah, maybye, like everyone else I haven't got a clue my friend. I don't know how it's going to pan out, I don't know if either of us will ever see Saints win at home again (hopefully it's over by 2024) I haven't got a clue....but I do know that this probably isn't thread to be calling people 'f*cking thick'. Just my thoughts.

 

I totally agree.

[whelk]

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/15/police-arrest-coronavirus-patients-ignoring-quarantine-12400302/

 

All they need to do is check when peoples MOT tests are due and lay in wait....

 

V good

[whelk]

Just the 8m. NHS sure to cope. Where’s the story about Diana, arthritis cure or artic freeze?

[spyinthesky]

One of the Sundays led with a front Page about Diana (something about the French not releasing details of her death for 75 years)

[Saint_clark]

As you say, a niche scenario. Completely different to what those on here are saying.

 

Perhaps offer yourself to get his essentials, money etc? Take him out for a drive yourself?

 

Appreciate you’re still at risk of catching it, but better than leaving him to his own accord

I'm registered as his carer and have moved back in with him, so I'm already taking care of him in a lot of ways he just likes to keep his independence and go out every now and then. As I said in the first post I have explained it all to him and offered to get anything he needs from anywhere myself, but he's refusing. I cant exactly lock him in the house.

 

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

[egg]

around 1.2m in the UK alone and around 126m globally....

 

really?

 

Not my numbers mate. Merkel suggested 80% infection rate in Germany. We've not been given any predictions here and in truth nobody knows. 60% has been mentioned as the figure needed for the herd immunity model. We're told 1 in 5 will need hospital care. There is no predicted death rate but its 7.3% in Italy, although that's based on confirmed cases and doubtless there's masses of unreported cases which would dilute the body count.

 

Countries are being closed down for good reason. This ain't the cold many still think it is.

[sadoldgit]

I don’t know how many beds the NHS have currently before all of the new hospitals are going to be built, but would imagine that it is a lot less than 8m. Not sure where all of these people are going to end up although there had been a suggestion that hotels be used. Then there is the problem of staff and equipment. Then a again, this is the Daily Express.

[egg]

I don’t know how many beds the NHS have currently before all of the new hospitals are going to be built, but would imagine that it is a lot less than 8m. Not sure where all of these people are going to end up although there had been a suggestion that hotels be used. Then there is the problem of staff and equipment. Then a again, this is the Daily Express.

 

It's also in the guardian, but it's simple maths based on Merkel predicted 80% infection rates, and the 60% for the herd immunity figure.

 

Obviously we'll have nowhere near the beds we need. Hence the imminent requirement for the over 70's to hide away and not get ill, thus not need a non existent bed.

[alehouseboys]

This is an interesting read...

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/epidemiologist-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19

[SKD]

As you say SKD, at the moment. What happens when they can’t, as in Italy?

 

Just before this point the country goes on lockdown. That point will be some way in the future if everyone follows the advice given.

 

Get symptoms, self isolate for a week. Over 70 isolate yourself as much as possible etc...

[benjii]

You really don’t get it either, do you? What threat is anybody over 70 to you?

 

Why are they more of a threat than a thirty year old? Answer - they aren’t.

 

Smokers are also more at risk. Should we tell every smoker to stay at home?

 

It's the old people, by and large, who will overwhelm the NHS. That's why one would try to protect them, as a category of people and it's why they are a threat to the country.

 

Personally, I don't see the real merit in isolating one age group though: seems to me that we should be doing a lot more at this stage. But that's the thinking.

[benjii]

Because it’s my NHS too.

 

Don’t you realise that the NHS is not going to cope at all. It is going to be overwhelmed by a factor of ten or twenty. Whatever older people do is going to make no difference. Tens of millions of people isolating themselves from society is not going to make a blind bit of difference. It won’t ‘give the NHS a fighting chance’.

 

Simple modelling suggests that genuine isolation makes a significant difference: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

[hypochondriac]

“It’s about being sensible” says Transport Secretary Grant Shapps on plans to ask elderly to self-isolate

 

Suggests activities like taking the dog out for a walk will be ok

 

Advice likely to last for months

 

 

Phew. Whitey can get his MOT after all.

[sadoldgit]

It's the old people, by and large, who will overwhelm the NHS. That's why one would try to protect them, as a category of people and it's why they are a threat to the country.

 

Personally, I don't see the real merit in isolating one age group though: seems to me that we should be doing a lot more at this stage. But that's the thinking.

 

Your last sentence is spot on. Children might not get sick but can still pass on the virus. So shut down schools. Older people are liable to pick it up now, not just next week. If it is imperative for them to self isolate, do it now. Everyday we prevaricate is another day when there could be potentially thousands more infected. This is not about point scoring, it about expecting the best possible advice from our leaders. At the moment it seems to make more sense to listen to leaders if other countries (apart from Trump of course). That article from The Guardian mentioned above struck the right tone for me. Hopefully the Government will pick up on it and stop their current nonsense.

[derry]

It's all very well coming up with specific advice that most other countries aren't doing or even agreeing with, we can't even agree what is best in this country, Wales and Scotland are advising social distancing, as is the Republic, I haven't seen anything about NI. In the end I suspect it will be a request for social distancing alternatively a total hotspot lockdown leading to a total UK lockdown.

 

I'm over 70, non smoker, as far as I know extremely healthy, virtually non drinker and have believed all my life that rules are for the guidance of wise men and the obedience of fools. I will take necessary precautions, social distancing, etc. One of the issues is to do whatever is required to keep one's immune system as strong as possible, guess what? exercise is important, brisk walks etc. Sitting in a chair watching tv, doing nothing else is doing harm not good, Personally I think in the end it will be recommended guidelines for over 70s not isolation.

 

I feel for those that are vulnerable with underlying illnesses and for those that have to help them. Up to now in this country all the deaths have occurred to people with serious underlying health problems. Everybody has to make their own decisions based on their circumstances what they do. And politicians have to get it right, having different solutions in our regions sends the wrong message and means draconian advice could well be ignored. The over 75 free TV licence issue is about to boil up again, it'll be interesting how the BBC/government deal with the fall out.

[Matthew Le God]

It's all very well coming up with specific advice that most other countries aren't doing or even agreeing with, we can't even agree what is best in this country, Wales and Scotland are advising social distancing, as is the Republic, I haven't seen anything about NI.

 

The Republic of Ireland is a foreign country to the UK. The clue being it is a republic.

[norwaysaint]

It's all very well coming up with specific advice that most other countries aren't doing or even agreeing with, we can't even agree what is best in this country, Wales and Scotland are advising social distancing, as is the Republic, I haven't seen anything about NI. In the end I suspect it will be a request for social distancing alternatively a total hotspot lockdown leading to a total UK lockdown.

 

I'm over 70, non smoker, as far as I know extremely healthy, virtually non drinker and have believed all my life that rules are for the guidance of wise men and the obedience of fools. I will take necessary precautions, social distancing, etc. One of the issues is to do whatever is required to keep one's immune system as strong as possible, guess what? exercise is important, brisk walks etc. Sitting in a chair watching tv, doing nothing else is doing harm not good, Personally I think in the end it will be recommended guidelines for over 70s not isolation.

 

I feel for those that are vulnerable with underlying illnesses and for those that have to help them. Up to now in this country all the deaths have occurred to people with serious underlying health problems. Everybody has to make their own decisions based on their circumstances what they do. And politicians have to get it right, having different solutions in our regions sends the wrong message and means draconian advice could well be ignored. The over 75 free TV licence issue is about to boil up again, it'll be interesting how the BBC/government deal with the fall out.

 

I think getting out into the great outdoors is advisable for both mental and physical wellbeing. We're keeping distances, but I was in the mountains at the weekend and there were probably about a hundred others on the same mountain, but there was never any need to come close to anyone else. I think some people are just shutting themselves in their homes for two weeks, which I don't think is necessary. It doesn't take much common sense to get out, but still hold a distance. There is a pretty vast world out there.

[derry]

The Republic of Ireland is a foreign country to the UK. The clue being it is a republic.

 

If you had half a brain you'd be dangerous. The clue is in the mention of NI as there is no border also in my user name. It is likely there will be similar guidance for both the Republic and NI. If you got out more you might have understood that that is the way it is called in NI aka the six counties or even over the border.

[wild-saint]

Sometimes you can be a complete pr!ck.

 

What is the NHS for if it’s not for sick people? Or do you just want it reserved for yourself?

 

Everybody has a right to life and liberty. Not house arrest.

 

On this occasion I agree with batman. The large proportion of the critical /seriously ill will be either over 70s or those with underlying health issues. Goes without saying that if the number can be reduced at any one time then more can be saved.

[derry]

As I thought, Isolation for 12 weeks for those with serious underlying illnesses. Still to be listed. Social distancing for everybody. Over 70s take additional care.

[Kingsland Codger]

I am in my mid-60s but had some heart problems a few years ago. I am therefore in the ‘underlying health issue’ group. It looks like I have 12 weeks of self-isolation ahead of me.

 

For several decades I have skilfully avoided doing any gardening. Some of my excuses have been thin, some rock-solid but with months of free-time to look forward to I fear this Coronavirus leaves me well-and-truly scuppered.

 

Further, all those DIY jobs around the house that have been long-delayed (barely-started) are now winking at me saucily for attention.

 

Ah well ... best make a start and get down to the weeding and the painting - there are only so many box-sets one can view and jigsaw puzzles one can complete.

[norwaysaint]

Most people showing symptoms can't get anywhere near a test at the moment, so god knows how they can give an accurate mortality rate.

[derry]

Most people showing symptoms can't get anywhere near a test at the moment, so god knows how they can give an accurate mortality rate.

 

Everybody self isolating because of symptoms should be tested otherwise the figures are meaningless. Vallance saying over 50000 cases currently in his opinion but not checked.

Edited 17 March, 2020 by derry

[norwaysaint]

Everybody self isolating because of symptoms should be tested otherwise the figures are meaningless. Vallance saying over 50000 cases currently in his opinion but not checked.

 

That's pretty much the whole country here. The health service is just way too busy to test every person showing symptoms, especially when there are still so many suffering from the flu season.

[Matthew Le God]

Most people showing symptoms can't get anywhere near a test at the moment, so god knows how they can give an accurate mortality rate.

 

Those two things aren't connected.

[norwaysaint]

Those two things aren't connected.

 

Really? How can they say what percentage of the infected are dying if they don't know how many are infected? Surely they would just end up with a percentage of those cases severe enough to be reported?

[Matthew Le God]

Really? How can they say what percentage of the infected are dying if they don't know how many are infected? Surely they would just end up with a percentage of those cases severe enough to be reported?

 

Because when they are in intensive care or die they will test to see if it is the virus or not. That is separate from if they were tested earlier in the illness.

[norwaysaint]

Because when they are in intensive care or die they will test to see if it is the virus or not. That is separate from if they were tested earlier in the illness.

 

But that won't give you the mortality rate of the disease.

 

If 1000 people in a town are infected, 100 are tested and found positive and 2 die, you have a 2% mortality rate of the infected as far as you know. However, due to the unknown actual total, the real mortality rate was 0.2%.

[hypochondriac]

But that won't give you the mortality rate of the disease.

 

If 1000 people in a town are infected, 100 are tested and found positive and 2 die, you have a 2% mortality rate of the infected as far as you know. However, due to the unknown actual total, the real mortality rate was 0.2%.

Figuring out the real mortality rate isn't particularly important at the moment, it certainly shouldn't be the priority. Until we know the percentage of people who are asymptomatic it's also impossible.

[norwaysaint]

Figuring out the real mortality rate isn't particularly important at the moment, it certainly shouldn't be the priority. Until we know the percentage of people who are asymptomatic it's also impossible.

 

I don't think anyone said is of great importance. I simply commented that they can't be doing it effectively if they aren't testing large proportions of the people with symptoms, not even including those who don't show symptoms. The point is the mortality rates we hear are likely to be utterly inaccurate.

[hypochondriac]

I don't think anyone said is of great importance. I simply commented that they can't be doing it effectively if they aren't testing large proportions of the people with symptoms, not even including those who don't show symptoms. The point is the mortality rates we hear are likely to be utterly inaccurate.

Yes I think that's clear. They can make approximate guesses but that's all.

[ooh it's a corner]

For a good while, I was definitely in the, "what's the big deal, more people will be killed in car accidents today...." (or any other common form of checking-out)

 

But, the thing that has brought this home to me, is the statistical chances of checking out, with this "winter-flu" versus your risk group.

 

If you are in the group of people that are invited, nay advised, to have a winter flu jab, you are in that group.

 

And the thing that brings the message home to roost is how many people I know in that group. I am a bloke in my mid-forties and every single family member north of me, is in that group. Hell, I should be in that group.

 

This isn't about our safety, it is about everyone's. Particularly those who are more vulnerable.

 

My 76 year old Dad is clearly vulnerable, but is fit enough to have been planning a 500 mile walk along the Camino in France and Spain in the summer. He isn't superman, but he is at risk. If the fit and healthy among us do as we please, we will wipe out the generation above us.

 

Let's not do that.

[SKD]

Figuring out the real mortality rate isn't particularly important at the moment, it certainly shouldn't be the priority. Until we know the percentage of people who are asymptomatic it's also impossible.

 

I actually think it is. If the true mortality rate is that of the common seasonal flu (I’m not saying it is btw), then isn’t all of this, which is going to cause global economy distribution, OTT?

 

Surely knowing the true mortality rate will give a clear indication on estimated casualties..?

[verlaine1979]

I actually think it is. If the true mortality rate is that of the common seasonal flu (I’m not saying it is btw), then isn’t all of this, which is going to cause global economy distribution, OTT?

 

Surely knowing the true mortality rate will give a clear indication on estimated casualties..?

 

The seasonal flu has a vaccine. This does not. For that reason alone, even if the viruses were equally likely to result in respiratory issues, then you'd expect the mortality rate of novel coronavirus to be many times higher.

[Dark Munster]

I actually think it is. If the true mortality rate is that of the common seasonal flu (I’m not saying it is btw), then isn’t all of this, which is going to cause global economy distribution, OTT?

 

Surely knowing the true mortality rate will give a clear indication on estimated casualties..?

The mortality rate for the flu is about 0.1%. Covid-19 is about 20 times that according to estimates.

 

But the BIG difference is that only about 1% of flu patients need hospitalisation, whereas about 20% of Covid-19 patients do. Which means left unchecked this will bring health care to its knees (and mortality rates will then skyrocket with no beds or ventilators for most of the severe cases). Hence the desperate need to "flatten the curve" which we've all heard about.

 

To make things worse, Covid-19 appears to be 2 to 4 time more infectious as the flu.

 

Nothing OTT about it. Ask Italy.

[hasper57saint]

My wife and myself are both in our 80s and have taken the advice seriously by imposing self isolation. Fortunately we live in a bungalow next to our son D.I.L.and two grandsons so we are as one house.We can find plenty to do outside once this bloody rain stops. Being a Saint since January 1957 I don't just live on memories of how things used to be.I have recorded quite a few Saints games and last night had the pleasure of watching us stuff the Skates 4-0 at Notarf... The snarling retards made complete idiots of themselves whenever we had a throw in and the venom they were spitting clearly demonstrated why that victory was such a pleasure to watch.Next up will be the Wigan cup match then selective matches from MOTD with the after match comments deleted. Its not the end of the world and I would like to wish you all the very best at this critical time for all of us.Keep the spirits up (literally) and I'm sure we will all come through this together.We are after all,the Saints.

[Charlie Wayman]

My wife and myself are both in our 80s and have taken the advice seriously by imposing self isolation. Fortunately we live in a bungalow next to our son D.I.L.and two grandsons so we are as one house.We can find plenty to do outside once this bloody rain stops. Being a Saint since January 1957 I don't just live on memories of how things used to be.I have recorded quite a few Saints games and last night had the pleasure of watching us stuff the Skates 4-0 at Notarf... The snarling retards made complete idiots of themselves whenever we had a throw in and the venom they were spitting clearly demonstrated why that victory was such a pleasure to watch.Next up will be the Wigan cup match then selective matches from MOTD with the after match comments deleted. Its not the end of the world and I would like to wish you all the very best at this critical time for all of us.Keep the spirits up (literally) and I'm sure we will all come through this together.We are after all,the Saints.

 

I guess you are in reality socially distancing, the other term seems to be applied more to people who are actually infected. What do you guys do about shopping now that all the delivery slots have been gobble up by greedy sods who've never shopped on line before? Best of luck to you and try to avoid the endless torrent of doom and gloom news about the virus. We know it's bad for goodness sake. Nice to have your memories of past Saints glories on film.

[eurosaint]

I am now 'self isolating' as we have just returned from Sth Africa on a 12 hour flight with about 450 others (God knows if anyone on board was infected and strangely none of the BA cabin crew wore gloves or masks!).

It is clearly the responsible thing to do although I will no doubt be bored sh!tless very soon (I only ever used to watch sport on the telly and that's all gone...) !

I have a big garden which I can tend although it's not my passion and as I live right by the sea I can do power walks along the front as long as I dodge the old biddies/farts with their dogs on the way !

Good luck to you all !

Happy days, eh......

[spyinthesky]

Did anyone see the pictures in today's Echo of the long line of older and 'at risk' people who were queuing (some of them apparently from just after 6am) to get priority at the Lordshill Sainsbury's?

I think this queuing may have been repeated throughout the country.

Seems odd that these 'at risk' group would want to be in close proximity with others from their peer group, in the cold, waiting for food they could probably have picked up later in the day, no problem!!

[verlaine1979]

Did anyone see the pictures in today's Echo of the long line of older and 'at risk' people who were queuing (some of them apparently from just after 6am) to get priority at the Lordshill Sainsbury's?

I think this queuing may have been repeated throughout the country.

Seems odd that these 'at risk' group would want to be in close proximity with others from their peer group, in the cold, waiting for food they could probably have picked up later in the day, no problem!!

 

Why would Supermarkets be offering 6am priority entry if it was easy to turn up later in the day? There's a clue buried in there somewhere.

[wadesmith]

Did anyone see the pictures in today's Echo of the long line of older and 'at risk' people who were queuing (some of them apparently from just after 6am) to get priority at the Lordshill Sainsbury's?

I think this queuing may have been repeated throughout the country.

Seems odd that these 'at risk' group would want to be in close proximity with others from their peer group, in the cold, waiting for food they could probably have picked up later in the day, no problem!!

 

Shelves t in Shirley (Sainsbury's, Lidl's,) Iceland pretty much stripped by Midday. I couldn't by any bread or meat. I don't even bother looker for toilet rolls,hand wash etc.

[whelk]

Shelves t in Shirley (Sainsbury's, Lidl's,) Iceland pretty much stripped by Midday. I couldn't by any bread or meat. I don't even bother looker for toilet rolls,hand wash etc.

 

Costco is not too bad but have to be a member. They list at entrance what they have and haven’t got of the scarce items.

Edited 20 March, 2020 by whelk