Coronavirus Discussion Thread

[Doctoroncall]

Well I saw that the WHO are suggesting that the current safety rules can be bent to allow the deliberate exposure of volunteers during challenge trials without there being any backup drug treatment in cases where the trial vaccine doesn't work. We're entering a bit of an ethical minefield where the ends maybe be used to justify the means.

 

The WHO are not regulators - fortunately if that is their view, although I’m not sure of what safety rules you are referring to. Besides, what backup drug treatment had you in mind?

[Greenridge]

Ferguson's model forecast 40000 deaths in Sweden BY May 1st in fact less than 3000 at the end of the first week in May. Patently the modelling was faulty there. The next check point is 96000 by the end of June.

 

Probably allowing 18m people into the UK by air in the first three months of the year, with a high proportion coming from countries hit by the virus had a major effect and with no health checks or quarantine had a major impact on the spreading.

 

As for the testing, Public Health England trying to maintain exclusive testing in their own laboratories, without calling in outside help and insisting on using one type of machine caused the low numbers tested. It was only when outside Laboratories were brought in that the testing improved. The Germans used outside testing from day one.

 

There are so many holes in your argument it’s hardly worth warranting a response. You are including the month of January in your flight statistics, yes? The month when even China had not even stopped Wuhan flights till 24th January. In March Heathrow had seen a drop of passenger numbers by more than 50%.

 

I’d stick to telling us what a poor player Lallana was and how he was never going to make it.

 

If you’re going to put forward an argument at least have some semblance of balance and fact about it.

[Trout-Tickler]

My point is more about whether regulators will approve the use of challenge trials which would involve deliberately infecting volunteers with Covid19. Needless to say that raises all kinds of thorny ethical questions. As things stand, the Oxford team is dependent on trial participants having a chance encounter with the virus in the wild in order to demonstrate how effective the vaccine is. And that could take a long time given efforts to bring down the transmission rate in the UK.

 

Your right, it does. In theory when you reach the double blind stage of the trials both the volunteers who've received the vaccine candidate along with the placebo group should be allowed back into the general population in which the virus is circulating. However, it's possible that by the time we reach that stage the occurrence of the virus in the population may be too low to effectively evaluate the candidate. In that scenario you potentially have to deliberately expose both the placebo and vaccine candidate groups to the virus knowing that your exposing people to a potentially deadly virus with no backup drug treatment.

[Lord Duckhunter]

But I think the point the "lift the lock-down" folk need to understand is that demand for services and for certain types of experience will remain low for some time. Ultimately, the economic damage has been done by the virus, not by governments taking precautions. The idea that everything would have been fine if we'd kept calm and carried on is a nonsense.

 

 

Who on earth thinks if we’d carried on everything would be alright. That’s a straw man if ever I saw one. Even Peter Hitchens one of the most vocal lockdown critic accepts there needed to be measures and these measures would affect the economic output. The issue is whether the extreme measures put in place were an over reaction, and whether that over reaction will eventually cost us more jobs and years of extra misery than was required, without saving any extra lives. It’s a perfectly legitimate question to ask, and a perfectly valid opinion to have.

 

 

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[Window Cleaner]

Who on earth thinks if we’d carried on everything would be alright. That’s a straw man if ever I saw one. Even Peter Hitchens one of the most vocal lockdown critic accepts there needed to be measures and these measures would affect the economic output. The issue is whether the extreme measures put in place were an over reaction, and whether that over reaction will eventually cost us more jobs and years of extra misery than was required, without saving any extra lives. It’s a perfectly legitimate question to ask, and a perfectly valid opinion to have.

 

 

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What extreme measures? You have had it easy in the UK. My neighbours got fined 270 euro for going to the shop together. It's one person per car here and 1 person per family in the shops. I know of others who've been fined for passing a shop on the way to the shop. We've been allowed one hour outside once a day and not more than 1 km from home. Your measures are lightweight and that's why you're not controlling the disease.

[derry]

There are so many holes in your argument it’s hardly worth warranting a response. You are including the month of January in your flight statistics, yes? The month when even China had not even stopped Wuhan flights till 24th January. In March Heathrow had seen a drop of passenger numbers by more than 50%.

 

I’d stick to telling us what a poor player Lallana was and how he was never going to make it.

 

If you’re going to put forward an argument at least have some semblance of balance and fact about it.

 

Which facts don't you like, 18.1m passengers between Jan 1st and Mar 23rd. Of those only 273 were quarantined. From Wuhan rescue flights, Jan 31st 83, Feb 2nd 11, Feb 9th 147, a further 32 came in from Tokyo.

 

The Swedish modeling was widely reported. 40000 by May 1st in fact 2941 by May 6th, with 100000 by June. The next model was median mortality 96000 ie between 52000 and 183000 by the end of June, We'll see what the result is then.

 

The testing only increased significantly after PHE built additional labs, brought in private and university testing facilities and employed the army manning mobile and fixed testing.

 

As for Lallana he addressed all the criticisms I was making starting with for the first time good tracking back against Norwich that season. He then improved immensely after that.

His talent was obvious but his application and work ethic was lacking in defensive duties previously. He turned into a fine player.

Edited 9 May, 2020 by derry

[Lord Duckhunter]

What extreme measures? You have had it easy in the UK. My neighbours got fined 270 euro for going to the shop together. It's one person per car here and 1 person per family in the shops. I know of others who've been fined for passing a shop on the way to the shop. We've been allowed one hour outside once a day and not more than 1 km from home. Your measures are lightweight and that's why you're not controlling the disease.

 

Just because something is even more extreme, it doesn’t make something else less extreme.

 

We have extreme measures, putting nearly the whole economy into hibernation, is extreme. Making people too scared to go and get medical advice, is extreme. You have even more extreme measures.

 

 

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Edited 9 May, 2020 by Lord Duckhunter

[egg]

What extreme measures? You have had it easy in the UK. My neighbours got fined 270 euro for going to the shop together. It's one person per car here and 1 person per family in the shops. I know of others who've been fined for passing a shop on the way to the shop. We've been allowed one hour outside once a day and not more than 1 km from home. Your measures are lightweight and that's why you're not controlling the disease.

Absolutely. I've called it lockdown lite because that is exactly what it is. The once a day excersize only didn't even make it into the law (save for Wales). It's been a complete joke and should have been a la France, with the Army to enforce alongside the police.

[Lord Duckhunter]

Absolutely. I've called it lockdown lite because that is exactly what it is. The once a day excersize only didn't even make it into the law (save for Wales). It's been a complete joke and should have been a la France, with the Army to enforce alongside the police.

 

Dear God

 

 

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[egg]

Dear God

 

 

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You're full of insightful comments tonight Duck man. Any actual words to add?

[wadesmith]

Obviously while people are dying I have complete sympathy and understanding with anyone who says isolation should continue until a vaccine is sought, or until the death rate is nearly zero, or completely manageable. I do think the acid test will be when the furlough money runs out, isolation is still imposed & you've got a family with two kids and a decent car on the drive, and the main wage earner isn't being told 'I'm sorry, you're redundant' I do wonder if the public mood may change at that point?. I don't know the answer to that by the way. Will there be a point when practicalities rule peoples heads?

[Whitey Grandad]

Absolutely. I've called it lockdown lite because that is exactly what it is. The once a day excersize only didn't even make it into the law (save for Wales). It's been a complete joke and should have been a la France, with the Army to enforce alongside the police.

It would not have add a lot of difference, not whilst we were concentrating infectees in hospitals and then releasing them early into care homes. Plus letting over 10 million enter the country from abroad without restrictions.

[East Kent Saint]

Why can't the Govt even organise our own testing ? 50 000 tests being sent to USA for analysis ! It will be intersting to see what is really happening , that's if the the information ever comes out/trickles down to our level .

[derry]

Why can't the Govt even organise our own testing ? 50 000 tests being sent to USA for analysis ! It will be intersting to see what is really happening , that's if the the information ever comes out/trickles down to our level .

 

Jenrick on Marr's show, a problem in it looks like PHE labs.

[derry]

Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, Cambridge University statistician, mentioned some interesting statistics this morning. Of 10m under 15s only 2 have died of Covid 19. Of 17m under 25s 26 have died of Covid 19. Elsewhere I see that for under 40s less than 1 per cent of the total registered deaths from Covid 19. That really loads the death total onto the retired population especially with one or more additional underlying ilnesses and the BAME population due to unknown at the moment reasons for their vulnerability.

 

The above with social distancing and a common sense approach from everybody regarding symptoms would seem a good reason to get the country back to work as soon as possible. Obviously more and better testing is essential together with being able to track and trace any hot spots and close them down quickly in isolation rather than one size fits all England lock down.

[Baird of the land]

This attempt by the govt to change the messaging to the meaningless 'stay alert' doesn't seem to be going down well.

[Jimmy_D]

Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, Cambridge University statistician, mentioned some interesting statistics this morning. Of 10m under 15s only 2 have died of Covid 19. Of 17m under 25s 26 have died of Covid 19. Elsewhere I see that for under 40s less than 1 per cent of the total registered deaths from Covid 19. That really loads the death total onto the retired population especially with one or more additional underlying ilnesses and the BAME population due to unknown at the moment reasons for their vulnerability.

 

The above with social distancing and a common sense approach from everybody regarding symptoms would seem a good reason to get the country back to work as soon as possible. Obviously more and better testing is essential together with being able to track and trace any hot spots and close them down quickly in isolation rather than one size fits all England lock down.

 

The main problem with that is asymptomatic transmission. Younger people might not be at a big risk of dying from it, but they can spread it around to people that are, possibly without even knowing they ever had it.

[Wade Garrett]

This attempt by the govt to change the messaging to the meaningless 'stay alert' doesn't seem to be going down well.

 

Not with the opposition or Andrew Marr. No surprise there then.

[Whitey Grandad]

Jenrick on Marr's show, a problem in it looks like PHE labs.

 

The UK government won’t use private labs.

[shurlock]

The UK government won’t use private labs.

 

The private sector has been heavily involved in recent efforts to scale up capacity, particularly the lighthouse labs.

Edited 10 May, 2020 by shurlock

[waylander]

The UK government won’t use private labs.

 

That was the problem initially but is no longer so

[Greenridge]

The main problem with that is asymptomatic transmission. Younger people might not be at a big risk of dying from it, but they can spread it around to people that are, possibly without even knowing they ever had it.

 

It’s quite incredible that 3+ months down the line that some people are still struggling with the most basic elements of the virus and need it explaining for the thousandth time.

Edited 10 May, 2020 by Greenridge

[Jimmy_D]

Unfortunately it looks like the easing of the lockdown in Germany is failing.

 

Looks like it’s being passed on to more than one person on average by each infected person again. They’re going to have to tighten it up again.

[Window Cleaner]

Unfortunately it looks like the easing of the lockdown in Germany is failing.

 

Looks like it’s being passed on to more than one person on average by each infected person again. They’re going to have to tighten it up again.

 

Probably but as they seem far more resistant than the British perhaps measures will be localised.

[egg]

Danny Rose talking sense for once.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52630497

[Turkish]

It’s quite incredible that 3+ months down the line that some people are still struggling with the most basic elements of the virus and need it explaining for the thousandth time.

 

When you have a nation that a large part is screaming (led by idiots like Piers Morgan) because they haven't had a clear directive from the Prime Minister if they are allowed to talk to their dad if he happens to walk past a park bench whilst they are sitting next to their mum it really isn't a surprise.

[Noodles34]

When you have a nation that a large part is screaming (led by idiots like Piers Morgan) because they haven't had a clear directive from the Prime Minister if they are allowed to talk to their dad if he happens to walk past a park bench whilst they are sitting next to their mum it really isn't a surprise.

 

sorry mate, whats not clear?

 

Don't go out, but go to work... If you can go to work but can work from home, don't go to work at work but work at home, but if you work at home then try not use public transport. If you do have to use public transport to go home then stay at home... wear a face mask but make one yourself by ripping up a tee shirt. If you are in the leisure industry then get a new job because that industry wont be around much longer. You can see one member of your family, but only in a park and only when it is dark, and if you bring another member of your household, ask them to bring a friend. Employers can start paying towards the furlough scheme, because clearly it is their responsibility to pay for this mess. Don't make workers redundant, keep paying them to stay at home

Above all, this is the most important bit.... Make sure you queue properly at supermarkets but once you are inside the rules do not really apply.

[simo]

Danny Rose talking sense for once.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52630497

 

See how much "sense" he talks if he was put on furlough and given 2.5k a month !

[Turkish]

sorry mate, whats not clear?

 

Don't go out, but go to work... If you can go to work but can work from home, don't go to work at work but work at home, but if you work at home then try not use public transport. If you do have to use public transport to go home then stay at home... wear a face mask but make one yourself by ripping up a tee shirt. If you are in the leisure industry then get a new job because that industry wont be around much longer. You can see one member of your family, but only in a park and only when it is dark, and if you bring another member of your household, ask them to bring a friend. Employers can start paying towards the furlough scheme, because clearly it is their responsibility to pay for this mess. Don't make workers redundant, keep paying them to stay at home

Above all, this is the most important bit.... Make sure you queue properly at supermarkets but once you are inside the rules do not really apply.

 

If a hod carrier is carrying a pile of bricks on some scaffolding and the bricklayer needs a slash and needs to get past him at exactly the same as someone in the building leans out of the window is the hod carrier better off throwing himself off the scaffolding or should the bricklayer stop and take a p*ss where he is standing? Why didn't Johnson cover this scenerio off in his 10 minute speech. IT IS NOT CLEAR WHAT A SHAMBLES

[Greenridge]

If a hod carrier is carrying a pile of bricks on some scaffolding and the bricklayer needs a slash and needs to get past him at exactly the same as someone in the building leans out of the window is the hod carrier better off throwing himself off the scaffolding or should the bricklayer stop and take a p*ss where he is standing? Why didn't Johnson cover this scenerio off in his 10 minute speech. IT IS NOT CLEAR WHAT A SHAMBLES

 

Exactly!

 

Plumber Ryan Price is pretty famous on Twitter today. We need more Ryan's.

 

Edited 12 May, 2020 by Greenridge

[Turkish]

Exactly!

 

Plumber Ryan Price is pretty famous on Twitter today. We need more Ryan's.

 

 

There seem to be an awful lot of toddlers in this country who need their hand holding. Since the 23rd March they seem to be unable to make decisions for themselves or what every single possible scenario spelt out to them. Funnily enough a lot of them, at least the ones on twitter were political and health masterminds before the 23rd March.

[Lighthouse]

Christ, I agree with Turkish, I’m gong to go and have a lie down. The number of idiots I’ve seen slagging off the government because Boris didn’t make one simple, all-encompassing statement which perfectly explains every scenario 67 million people might find themselves in...

 

"Oh we’ve been told to go to work but we shouldn’t go to work, what should I do?" Have you tried asking your boss, numb nuts?

[Greenridge]

There seem to be an awful lot of toddlers in this country who need their hand holding. Since the 23rd March they seem to be unable to make decisions for themselves or what every single possible scenario spelt out to them. Funnily enough a lot of them, at least the ones on twitter were political and health masterminds before the 23rd March.

 

Amen.

 

I don’t know why Bojo just didn’t go to Twitter, Facebook and Saintsweb for his research and answers. Would have saved him a lot of grief.

[aintforever]

Exactly!

 

Plumber Ryan Price is pretty famous on Twitter today. We need more Ryan's.

 

 

Yeah he sounds like a right lad. Probably has the same attitude as the tosser who brushed past me coughing at Tescos earlier today though.

[Greenridge]

Yeah he sounds like a right lad. Probably has the same attitude as the tosser who brushed past me coughing at Tescos earlier today though.

 

You clearly didn’t listen to a word he said then.

[the saint in winchester]

There seem to be an awful lot of toddlers in this country who need their hand holding. Since the 23rd March they seem to be unable to make decisions for themselves or what every single possible scenario spelt out to them. Funnily enough a lot of them, at least the ones on twitter were political and health masterminds before the 23rd March.

 

Christ, I agree with Turkish, I’m gong to go and have a lie down. The number of idiots I’ve seen slagging off the government because Boris didn’t make one simple, all-encompassing statement which perfectly explains every scenario 67 million people might find themselves in...

 

"Oh we’ve been told to go to work but we shouldn’t go to work, what should I do?" Have you tried asking your boss, numb nuts?

 

Yes, I agree with your approach. I am certainly not a Boris fan, but I did find myself admiring his calm yesterday when opposition MP's and random Joe Public's were zoom-questioning him with bizarre scenarios like you quote and then accusing him of not covering that specific scenario in his speech and a lack of clarity. I was watching in shock, mouthing "use common sense, dipstick". Some people seem to need rules rather than apply principles.

[aintforever]

You clearly didn’t listen to a word he said then.

 

No heard it. Leaving it up to us to use common sense is fine if everyone has it, as we all know some people don’t have an ounce.

[saintquin]

Yes, I agree with your approach. I am certainly not a Boris fan, but I did find myself admiring his calm yesterday when opposition MP's and random Joe Public's were zoom-questioning him with bizarre scenarios like you quote and then accusing him of not covering that specific scenario in his speech and a lack of clarity. I was watching in shock, mouthing "use common sense, dipstick". Some people seem to need rules rather than apply principles.

 

Part of the problem in today's world is it's always someone else's fault and no one takes responsible for their own actions!

[Nordic Saint]

There seem to be an awful lot of toddlers in this country who need their hand holding. Since the 23rd March they seem to be unable to make decisions for themselves or what every single possible scenario spelt out to them. Funnily enough a lot of them, at least the ones on twitter were political and health masterminds before the 23rd March.

 

Yes, you are right. I like Boris. He has great charm and he is clearly intelligent but he seems totally lacking in common sense and, at times, is incredibly immature and childlike. His inability to learn how wash his hands properly, or use condoms, or even know what day of the week it is, comes from having led a very sheltered, privileged life. But, clowning around in front of the cameras, displaying his boyish charm, has got him where he is today.

 

]

[Noodles34]

Yes, you are right. I like Boris. He has great charm and he is clearly intelligent but he seems totally lacking in common sense and, at times, is incredibly immature and childlike. His inability to learn how wash his hands properly, or use condoms, or even know what day of the week it is, comes from having led a very sheltered, privileged life. But, clowning around in front of the cameras, displaying his boyish charm, has got him where he is today.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJs-eyXFrCg]

 

The bloke is a buffoon, our version of Trump, he is an embarrassment to this country. Nothing to do with politics, just an opinion on how he conducts himself. I mean. he nearly died because he was insistent on shaking peoples hands when advised not to, how stupid can you get and what sort of example does it set?

[Lord Duckhunter]

The bloke is a buffoon, our version of Trump, he is an embarrassment to this country. Nothing to do with politics, just an opinion on how he conducts himself. I mean. he nearly died because he was insistent on shaking peoples hands when advised not to, how stupid can you get and what sort of example does it set?

 

Nothing to do with politics LOL, of course it’s not

 

 

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[Noodles34]

Nothing to do with politics LOL, of course it’s not

 

 

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it's not, i am a Labour supporter but in the end, Corbyn was a liability, embarrassing and a joke, so...

[Turkish]

it's not, i am a Labour supporter but in the end, Corbyn was a liability, embarrassing and a joke, so...

 

I do wonder how labour would have handled this. The media should be absolutely ashamed of themselves they way they've carried on.

[Whitey Grandad]

I do wonder how labour would have handled this. The media should be absolutely ashamed of themselves they way they've carried on.

 

That’s irrelevant. They aren’t in power so anything else is speculation.

[East Kent Saint]

If labour were in Govt I imagine the initial response would be similar perhaps with slightly more humility . However the Tory supporting press would be hammering them daily !

[Turkish]

Well it looks like they are spelling out for everyone who was incapable of either acting on their own common sense or reading the document themselves.

[SKD]

I do wonder how labour would have handled this. The media should be absolutely ashamed of themselves they way they've carried on.

 

They call for lockdown supported and paid for by the public purse now and will call for the end of austerity in 4 years time.

 

Out of interest, is the a table anywhere which shows deaths against landmass and population? I.e a nation of our population with landmass of our size is a recipe for disaster when it comes to spreading.

 

I think the tories probably could and should have handled this better, the whole herd immunity thing was a disaster from the start and the go government were let down by the medical professionals, imo.

 

Would labour have done anything different? They’d have been provided with the same Information, so probably not.

[SKD]

Credit where it is due however, the NHS has coped pretty well.

[Whitey Grandad]

They call for lockdown supported and paid for by the public purse now and will call for the end of austerity in 4 years time.

 

Out of interest, is the a table anywhere which shows deaths against landmass and population? I.e a nation of our population with landmass of our size is a recipe for disaster when it comes to spreading.

 

I think the tories probably could and should have handled this better, the whole herd immunity thing was a disaster from the start and the go government were let down by the medical professionals, imo.

 

Would labour have done anything different? They’d have been provided with the same Information, so probably not.

 

But without Dominic Cummings.

[East Kent Saint]

Hancock , when caught out , first denies he said it (even though they play it back ) then says it’s taken out of context or just answers a different question plus praising the Government’s performance.

It’s all going at a pace these days plus we are getting info overload or they just stop showing the deaths by country graph as we were top in Europe !!

We know they were slow to react (not alone in that) , cov 19 infected people were transferred from hospitals to care homes , PPE was/is lacking esp in care homes. The Govt. communication should be better with all these expert advisors they employ , it’s poor to announce changes before issuing the 50 pages of detail .