Coronavirus Discussion Thread

[Jimmy_D]

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/laninf/PIIS1473-3099(20)30114-6.pdf

 

https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiaa077/5739751

 

https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMc2001468

 

Either way it’s moot - the lag between doing research and it being published is significant, so findings would have been circulating among policymakers well they were available to the public. Even the article you cite was received on March 2.

 

So you think the government should make a habit of basing policy on unverified scientific evidence?

[shurlock]

So you think the government should make a habit of basing policy on unverified scientific evidence?

 

No not on a systematic basis but when papers are being submitted to high-impact, peer-reviewed journals, I know from my own experience much of the heavylifting has been done. Either way Ive cited peer-reviewed research showing asymptomatic infection was a risk and it was publicly available before the lockdown.

Edited 8 May, 2020 by shurlock

[Jimmy_D]

No not on a systematic basis but Ive cited peer-reviewed research showing asymptomatic infection was a risk and it was publicly available before the lockdown.

 

You have, thank you for that.

 

Unfortunately it looks like they were small scale occurrences which could have been anecdotal. Obviously they’ve come to prominence now but at the time I’d guess they’d have been overlooked in the tidal wave of research about a novel coronavirus. As well as the lag between research being carried out and it being published, you get a lag between it being published and acted upon. That was a missed opportunity.

[Lord Duckhunter]

 

Clearly the government was hoping to get away with a softer approach, a bit like Sweden and only toughened up when it became apparent that it wasn't going to work.

 

 

It wasn’t apparent at all.

 

It’s only apparent if you believe Ferguson’s model. Let’s see how Sweden get on & see whether this time Ferguson’s got it right.

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Lord Duckhunter]

However let me ask again. If we are all allowed to return to normal without ending the pandemic and you catch covid 19 who will you blame.

 

China

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Greenridge]

It wasn’t apparent at all.

 

It’s only apparent if you believe Ferguson’s model. Let’s see how Sweden get on & see whether this time Ferguson’s got it right.

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

Proportionally Sweden is struggling massively with deaths more than 3x that of the combined deaths of Denmark, Finland and Norway. And let’s not pretend they are carrying on as normal. I spend a third of my working life in Scandinavia and two thirds of that in Sweden. Many of the ‘rules’ may only be guidelines but they are followed as if they were law. Most companies have employees working from home, they are practicing social distancing, travel within the country is down 90%, universities are closed. The list goes on.

[HarvSFC]

They're hosting street parties in Portsmouth (Cosham) where social distancing doesn't appear to be a thing. Those guys...

[Dark Munster]

Belarus don't really seem bothered. They even started their football season during the middle of a worldwide pandemic.

 

Brazil's president seems like a bit of a lunatic so it's no surprise they're coming out of it quite badly.

 

What annoys me about our approach is the missed opportunities. Depleted stockpiles of PPE, the half baked message to stop going out, allowing a weekend of huge events to happen, not gearing up to carry out a lot more tests earlier. We knew what was coming but sat on our hands for too long.

 

Even now we hear today that they never meant for fast food places to close. Well if that was the case then why not tell them earlier?

 

Stay at home, save lives (but only if you can work from home, and if you do stay open you can circumnavigate social distancing rules under the guidance anyway so it doesn't matter)

 

We've had a lockdown that wasn't really a proper lockdown with vague instructions. None of this has been implemented in a strong, concise way. The Government has completely failed us, preferring to brief the press on their intentions rather than just come out and tell the public.

Oi, I'll have you know we in the USA are number one in that regard, thank you very much.

[alehouseboys]

They're hosting street parties in Portsmouth (Cosham) where social distancing doesn't appear to be a thing. Those guys...

 

Doesn't count, one big happy family all living together.

[SaintMB]

403,000 people died of malaria in Africa in 2017 , that’s a treatable preventable disease. 1.5 million people died of TB in 2018. Up to 143,000 die of cholera each year. All round the world nations are expected to live with these diseases, the west won’t spend billions eradicating them, yet as soon as soon as something threatens a few thousand of our citizens, we hide away indoors. I’m pretty sure if Africa, India, & other countries can live with far deadlier diseases, then we can live with Covid without trashing the economy & piling up eye watering amounts of debt for future generations to deal with.

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

Africa is not a country.

[aintforever]

You have, thank you for that.

 

Unfortunately it looks like they were small scale occurrences which could have been anecdotal. Obviously they’ve come to prominence now but at the time I’d guess they’d have been overlooked in the tidal wave of research about a novel coronavirus. As well as the lag between research being carried out and it being published, you get a lag between it being published and acted upon. That was a missed opportunity.

 

We had the same information as other governments that were shutting down. I’m no expert on viruses so was happy to take the government’s advice at the time but the New Zealand PM said it was obvious early on what needed to be done, the virus is so infectious and when the infection rate grows exponentially time is absolutely critical. Literally every day counts.

 

When you see the effect lockdown had on the curve it is obvious it should have happened sooner. The government should be applauded for getting the required ICU beds sorted but their slow start and lack of planning has cost lives.

[Greenridge]

 

When you see the effect lockdown had on the curve it is obvious it should have happened sooner. The government should be applauded for getting the required ICU beds sorted but their slow start and lack of planning has cost lives.

 

The benefit of hindsight. And the same people have been quoting Sweden as a reference for a relaxed approach (which is not a great example based on latest statistics) and would have whined about an earlier lockdown impacting their civil liberties or some other left wing cr@p. Oh and they couldn’t have lived without being able to go to MacDonalds. Let’s face it. WHO didn’t know how to address it and there’s been a multitude of different approaches from different countries. They’ve all taken a punt on what they think the right approach would be. Some have worked better than others. Some placed their money on red some on black.

Edited 9 May, 2020 by Greenridge

[Window Cleaner]

I see that at least one German region has had to backpedal a bit on their deconfinement. A lot of new cases in a meat packing factory apparently.

[East Kent Saint]

It would take alot of time and effort to untangle the Coronavirus figures given by each country and then you would have to investigate the validity of the original information before coming to a conclusion that was accurate. Currently there is still a debate about how the Black Death was spread around the world . The common understanding was that it was spread by fleas hosted by rats but that is now disputed .Common remedies at the time were for example in Frankfurt was to kill all the Jews as they spread the disease !

Our Govt responce has been hampered by 10 years of under investment in the NHS , using private companies to do testing , not utilising local council and NHS facilities for testing and tracking , being more concerned with praising their own efforts than telling us the truth , over promising and under achieving on a grand scale . They have also made bad decisions such as clearing out hospital wards of elderly patients to care homes , not realising the severity of the problem so dragging their heels on lockdown and failing to test and track and failing to close our borders.

We have seen diversionary tactics , yesterdays briefing included a long VE day mention ending with a promise that the NHS would look after the vets ?? I thought they did that anyway ? the environment minister did sound lost at this stage . The briefings are poor surely they have some presentation experts they could use ?

The Govt are putting out mixed messages , some via the freindly bits of the press and ministers who have to backtrack the next day. I wonder what the press reaction would have been if they wern't supports of the Tories/Boris ? I hope they get some kind of grip and tell us how it is and what they are going to do in a clear way so we can do what is required !!!!

[Window Cleaner]

There's an interesting piece in the Figaro today which tries to explain why some central european countries have been far less affected than others. Consensus seems to be that the quicker you hermetically closed your borders the better you've come out of it..for the moment. Most of them have governments whch lean far to the right.

[benjii]

https://quillette.com/2020/05/08/enough-with-the-phoney-lockdown-debate/

 

Worth a read. Limited data points cited but essentially makes the point that lock-down has been a public response to the virus and not influenced hugely by government policy decisions or actions.

 

Obviously test and trace needs competent government intervention though so you'd think the countries that do best with this over the long-term will be those with sensible, well-educated populations and organised well-led governments. No surprise we're doing badly, then.

[Window Cleaner]

https://quillette.com/2020/05/08/enough-with-the-phoney-lockdown-debate/

 

Worth a read. Limited data points cited but essentially makes the point that lock-down has been a public response to the virus and not influenced hugely by government policy decisions or actions.

 

Obviously test and trace needs competent government intervention though so you'd think the countries that do best with this over the long-term will be those with sensible, well-educated populations and organised well-led governments. No surprise we're doing badly, then.

 

No doubt sensible and well educated populations are somewhat better prepared but the death rates in the UK, Belgium Spain, Italy and France are quite frankly alarming. Why are these populations so fragile that about 30% or so of the more serious cases don't make it.

Edited 9 May, 2020 by Window Cleaner

[shurlock]

https://quillette.com/2020/05/08/enough-with-the-phoney-lockdown-debate/

 

Worth a read. Limited data points cited but essentially makes the point that lock-down has been a public response to the virus and not influenced hugely by government policy decisions or actions.

 

Obviously test and trace needs competent government intervention though so you'd think the countries that do best with this over the long-term will be those with sensible, well-educated populations and organised well-led governments. No surprise we're doing badly, then.

 

I agree that some organisations, regions and countries took measures into their own hands well before they were required by law (just look at the reaction of the Premier League). In that respect, the distinction between voluntary restrictions on behaviour (say like what is happening in Sweden) and legal requirements (like what is happening in the UK and most of the rest of the world) can be artificial since if both are reducing non-essential interpersonal contact to a similar degree, they should have pretty similar health and economic impacts. How that reduction is achieved is secondary.

 

At the same time, there is a cuddly libertarian belief that we could have relied on the voluntarism and good judgement of the public. That might work in some contexts but it is bloody hard to pull off and requires deep reserves of social capital and trust. Could it have worked in the UK? Maybe but equally there are grounds for scepticism: you just have to look the crowds, confusion and in places indiscipline on the weekend (March 21-22) before the lockdown was properly introduced to see that more direct intervention (even then it’s been pretty light-touch) was arguably warranted, especially as government didn’t have the luxury to wait for the public to learn and adapt to these new norms.

Edited 9 May, 2020 by shurlock

[benjii]

I agree that some organisations, regions and countries took measures into their own hands well before they were required by law (just look at the reaction of the Premier League). In that respect, the distinction between voluntary restrictions on behaviour (say like what is happening in Sweden) and legal requirements (like what is happening in the UK and most of the rest of the world) can be artificial since if both are reducing non-essential interpersonal contact to a similar degree, they should have pretty similar health and economic impacts. How that reduction is achieved is secondary.

 

At the same time, there is a cuddly libertarian belief that we could have relied on the voluntarism and good judgement of the public. That might work in some contexts but it is bloody hard to pull off and requires deep reserves of social capital and trust. Could it have worked in the UK? Maybe but equally there are grounds for scepticism: you just have to look the crowds, confusion and in places indiscipline on the weekend (March 21-22) before the lockdown was properly introduced to see that more direct intervention (even then it’s been pretty light-touch) was arguably warranted, especially as government didn’t have the luxury to wait for the public to learn and adapt to these new norms.

 

I totally agree it wouldn't have worked overly well in the UK

as a whole compared to, say, Hong Kong, Singapore or South Korea.

 

But I think the point the "lift the lock-down" folk need to understand is that demand for services and for certain types of experience will remain low for some time. Ultimately, the economic damage has been done by the virus, not by governments taking precautions. The idea that everything would have been fine if we'd kept calm and carried on is a nonsense.

 

That's not to say governments aren't important. Clearly they have a role in managing the disease, in providing safety nets and stimulus measures and providing calm and clear leadership (maybe we could, errr, inject disinfectant?).

[waylander]

It would take alot of time and effort to untangle the Coronavirus figures given by each country and then you would have to investigate the validity of the original information before coming to a conclusion that was accurate. Currently there is still a debate about how the Black Death was spread around the world . The common understanding was that it was spread by fleas hosted by rats but that is now disputed .Common remedies at the time were for example in Frankfurt was to kill all the Jews as they spread the disease !

Our Govt responce has been hampered by 10 years of under investment in the NHS , using private companies to do testing , not utilising local council and NHS facilities for testing and tracking , being more concerned with praising their own efforts than telling us the truth , over promising and under achieving on a grand scale . They have also made bad decisions such as clearing out hospital wards of elderly patients to care homes , not realising the severity of the problem so dragging their heels on lockdown and failing to test and track and failing to close our borders.

We have seen diversionary tactics , yesterdays briefing included a long VE day mention ending with a promise that the NHS would look after the vets ?? I thought they did that anyway ? the environment minister did sound lost at this stage . The briefings are poor surely they have some presentation experts they could use ?

The Govt are putting out mixed messages , some via the freindly bits of the press and ministers who have to backtrack the next day. I wonder what the press reaction would have been if they wern't supports of the Tories/Boris ? I hope they get some kind of grip and tell us how it is and what they are going to do in a clear way so we can do what is required !!!!

 

Using private companies to do testing was precisely how Germany managed to test so many more people than we did.

[waylander]

I agree that some organisations, regions and countries took measures into their own hands well before they were required by law (just look at the reaction of the Premier League). In that respect, the distinction between voluntary restrictions on behaviour (say like what is happening in Sweden) and legal requirements (like what is happening in the UK and most of the rest of the world) can be artificial since if both are reducing non-essential interpersonal contact to a similar degree, they should have pretty similar health and economic impacts. How that reduction is achieved is secondary.

 

At the same time, there is a cuddly libertarian belief that we could have relied on the voluntarism and good judgement of the public. That might work in some contexts but it is bloody hard to pull off and requires deep reserves of social capital and trust. Could it have worked in the UK? Maybe but equally there are grounds for scepticism: you just have to look the crowds, confusion and in places indiscipline on the weekend (March 21-22) before the lockdown was properly introduced to see that more direct intervention (even then it’s been pretty light-touch) was arguably warranted, especially as government didn’t have the luxury to wait for the public to learn and adapt to these new norms.

 

I invite you to speculate on the public response if the Cheltenham Festival and the Liverpool-Athletico cup tie had been banned.

[Delmary]

No doubt sensible and well educated populations are somewhat better prepared but the death rates in the UK, Belgium Spain, Italy and France are quite frankly alarming. Why are these populations so fragile that about 30% or so of the more serious cases don't make it.

 

http://

This is quite shocking.

[shurlock]

http://

This is quite shocking.

 

UK data runs only to April 24th, so doesn’t reflect the recent revision and inclusion of care home deaths into official statistics.

 

But even with that revision, it remains that UK official deaths as a share of excess deaths are still low relative to peers. By extension, it sits uneasily with the claim that the UK’s record is so unflattering only because it’s too honest or zealous in counting Covid-19 related deaths compared to other countries.

 

On a side note, the figures for Germany are odd but the main economist article attribute this to the fact that they are not recent enough and may have been exaggerated by exceptionally low flu-related deaths earlier in the year.

Edited 9 May, 2020 by shurlock

[shurlock]

I totally agree it wouldn't have worked overly well in the UK

as a whole compared to, say, Hong Kong, Singapore or South Korea.

 

But I think the point the "lift the lock-down" folk need to understand is that demand for services and for certain types of experience will remain low for some time. Ultimately, the economic damage has been done by the virus, not by governments taking precautions. The idea that everything would have been fine if we'd kept calm and carried on is a nonsense.

 

That's not to say governments aren't important. Clearly they have a role in managing the disease, in providing safety nets and stimulus measures and providing calm and clear leadership (maybe we could, errr, inject disinfectant?).

 

Completely agree.

[derry]

Ferguson's model forecast 40000 deaths in Sweden BY May 1st in fact less than 3000 at the end of the first week in May. Patently the modelling was faulty there. The next check point is 96000 by the end of June.

 

Probably allowing 18m people into the UK by air in the first three months of the year, with a high proportion coming from countries hit by the virus had a major effect and with no health checks or quarantine had a major impact on the spreading.

 

As for the testing, Public Health England trying to maintain exclusive testing in their own laboratories, without calling in outside help and insisting on using one type of machine caused the low numbers tested. It was only when outside Laboratories were brought in that the testing improved. The Germans used outside testing from day one.

[Whitey Grandad]

This article is easy to read and seems plausible. It concerns the mechanisms by which you catch the disease.

 

 

https://erinbromage.wixsite.com/covid19/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them?fbclid=IwAR3Z_mKJoV9JxQK4SzUWNTB-IIEvtxu9bcOmmsm4g0ClaBEOFw92yGGCej4

[Delmary]

This article is rather sobering. Life won’t return to normal until we have a vaccine.

 

http:// https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/finally-virus-got-me-scientist-who-fought-ebola-and-hiv-reflects-facing-death-covid-19.

[Window Cleaner]

I see that the idiots are out and about for the BH week-end in the UK. That's not the government's fault, although if they have slapped on a big,big fine for those who get caught some might have used a bit more savvy. £60 reduced to £30 if you pay up on time was never enough; Should be somewhere around £150 with no reduction to be taken seriously.

[shurlock]

This article is easy to read and seems plausible. It concerns the mechanisms by which you catch the disease.

 

 

https://erinbromage.wixsite.com/covid19/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them?fbclid=IwAR3Z_mKJoV9JxQK4SzUWNTB-IIEvtxu9bcOmmsm4g0ClaBEOFw92yGGCej4

 

Interesting thanks.

[shurlock]

This article is rather sobering. Life won’t return to normal until we have a vaccine.

 

http:// https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/finally-virus-got-me-scientist-who-fought-ebola-and-hiv-reflects-facing-death-covid-19.

 

Also very interesting. The long-term health consequences -heart, neural and kidney- get lost in the mix and the focus on mortality rates. Even now our understanding of these effects is still patchy. Faced with uncertainty and such asymmetric payoffs, Im a big believer in the precautionary principle. While the aim is to avoid both extremes, its nonetheless preferable to overshoot than undershoot.

Edited 9 May, 2020 by shurlock

[Trout-Tickler]

This article is rather sobering. Life won’t return to normal until we have a vaccine.

 

http:// https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/finally-virus-got-me-scientist-who-fought-ebola-and-hiv-reflects-facing-death-covid-19.

 

Unfortunately there may never be a vaccine and even if it is possible to develop one it could take years. As somebody who works in the drug development sector I'd be surprised if a vaccine was available anytime before 2022, especially if the current safety regulations are adhered and no short cuts are taken. We're going to have to live with SARS-CoV-2 for months if not years, some pre-lockdown activities will be adaptable to physical distancing restrictions whilst others won't. We're just going to have to learn to adapt.

[Window Cleaner]

Unfortunately there may never be a vaccine and even if it is possible to develop one it could take years. As somebody who works in the drug development sector I'd be surprised if a vaccine was available anytime before 2022, especially if the current safety regulations are adhered and no short cuts are taken. We're going to have to live with SARS-CoV-2 for months if not years, some pre-lockdown activities will be adaptable to physical distancing restrictions whilst others won't. We're just going to have to learn to adapt.

 

Not too confident about the Oxford vaccine then ?

[CB Fry]

Unfortunately there may never be a vaccine and even if it is possible to develop one it could take years. As somebody who works in the drug development sector I'd be surprised if a vaccine was available anytime before 2022, especially if the current safety regulations are adhered and no short cuts are taken. We're going to have to live with SARS-CoV-2 for months if not years, some pre-lockdown activities will be adaptable to physical distancing restrictions whilst others won't. We're just going to have to learn to adapt.

 

I think it is reasonable to assume that some shortcuts will be taken.

[Matthew Le God]

Unfortunately there may never be a vaccine and even if it is possible to develop one it could take years. As somebody who works in the drug development sector I'd be surprised if a vaccine was available anytime before 2022, especially if the current safety regulations are adhered and no short cuts are taken. We're going to have to live with SARS-CoV-2 for months if not years, some pre-lockdown activities will be adaptable to physical distancing restrictions whilst others won't. We're just going to have to learn to adapt.

 

They have already made them and they are in clinical trials.

[Trout-Tickler]

Not too confident about the Oxford vaccine then ?

 

It's simply to early to tell. There's months if not years of trials ahead looking at doses, efficacy, and toxicity (amongst other things) before we know if it's a safe and effective treatment. Even if you do find one, scaling up the manufacture to allow the immunisation of billions is not a trivial matter. The beginning of trials by Oxford (and others) is very welcome news but it's only the first step of a marathon.

[Matthew Le God]

It's simply to early to tell. There's months if not years of trials ahead looking at doses, efficacy, and toxicity (amongst other things) before we know if it's a safe and effective treatment. Even if you do find one, scaling up the manufacture to allow the immunisation of billions is not a trivial matter. The beginning of trials by Oxford (and others) is very welcome news but it's only the first step of a marathon.

 

It doesn't require the whole world to be immunised for the UK to return to 'normal'.

[Window Cleaner]

It's simply to early to tell. There's months if not years of trials ahead looking at doses, efficacy, and toxicity (amongst other things) before we know if it's a safe and effective treatment. Even if you do find one, scaling up the manufacture to allow the immunisation of billions is not a trivial matter. The beginning of trials by Oxford (and others) is very welcome news but it's only the first step of a marathon.

 

Perhaps you don't need billions of doses, some people seem to be by far less affected than others. The next step is probably understanding why that is so. Starting with why the UK population is so fragile.

[Trout-Tickler]

I think it is reasonable to assume that some shortcuts will be taken.

 

Well I saw that the WHO are suggesting that the current safety rules can be bent to allow the deliberate exposure of volunteers during challenge trials without there being any backup drug treatment in cases where the trial vaccine doesn't work. We're entering a bit of an ethical minefield where the ends maybe be used to justify the means.

[Trout-Tickler]

It doesn't require the whole world to be immunised for the UK to return to 'normal'.

 

Do you only care about the UK?

[Ted Bates Statue]

They have already made them and they are in clinical trials.

 

And how long do clinical trials usually carry on for...? Usually several years, as Trout-Tickler said.

[Matthew Le God]

Do you only care about the UK?

 

No, but it is hardly unreasonable to be more concerned about the health of the society you live in than one you don't.

[Window Cleaner]

Well I saw that the WHO are suggesting that the current safety rules can be bent to allow the deliberate exposure of volunteers during challenge trials without there being any backup drug treatment in cases where the trial vaccine doesn't work. We're entering a bit of an ethical minefield where the ends maybe be used to justify the means.

 

There are some treatments that seem to reduce the impact of the disease if they're given early enough. Apparently the same sort of tritherapy that's used for Aids has shown some good results in a limited study somewhere or other. Then again so have Chlorpromazine, Ivermectine and Tocilizumab but the studies are limited and will probably be disproved for general use.

[Matthew Le God]

And how long do clinical trials usually carry on for...? Usually several years, as Trout-Tickler said.

 

The process has been sped up for this, with timeframes given of 12-18 from the start of the event.

[Greenridge]

And how long do clinical trials usually carry on for...? Usually several years, as Trout-Tickler said.

 

This is not a ‘usual’ situation. It will be accelerated.

[Window Cleaner]

I see that most (or all ) of the bars and clubs in S.Korea have been shut down again because there were some new cases. Don't take any risks those people.

[shurlock]

To speed things along, I’m sure davefoggy and ilk would happily volunteer to participate in challenge trials if regulators gave them the green light.

[Window Cleaner]

To speed things along, I’m sure davefoggy would happily volunteer to participate in challenge trials if regulators give them the green light.

 

I think they had far more volunteers than places on the Oxford programme anyway. Might be still able to sign up at Imperial although they're a bit picky.

[Trout-Tickler]

To speed things along, I’m sure davefoggy and ilk would happily volunteer to participate in challenge trials if regulators gave them the green light.

 

Oxford doesn't need any more volunteers at present but you can still donate money to help their research! https://www.ovg.ox.ac.uk/news/covid-19-vaccine-development

[shurlock]

Oxford doesn't need any more volunteers at present but you can still donate money to help their research! https://www.ovg.ox.ac.uk/news/covid-19-vaccine-development

 

My point is more about whether regulators will approve the use of challenge trials which would involve deliberately infecting volunteers with Covid19. Needless to say that raises all kinds of thorny ethical questions. As things stand, the Oxford team is dependent on trial participants having a chance encounter with the virus in the wild in order to demonstrate how effective and safe the vaccine is. And that could take a long time given efforts to bring down the transmission rate in the UK.

Edited 9 May, 2020 by shurlock

[Trout-Tickler]

A good overview of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine prospects for anyone who fancies a read. https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/04/15/coronavirus-vaccine-prospects