egg Posted 6 May, 2020 Share Posted 6 May, 2020 I'm assuming from your comment that financial devastation won't affect you then? I'm assuming from your comment that you are looking just at the impact of this pandemic on you. For me, my income has halved, my firm may or may not survive this, but this isn't just about me. Staying on your original point, there's no chance of the old normal coming back anytime soon, if at all. The harsh reality is that the world's a different place and we have to adapt to it alongside this virus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davefoggy Posted 6 May, 2020 Share Posted 6 May, 2020 I'm assuming from your comment that you are looking just at the impact of this pandemic on you. For me, my income has halved, my firm may or may not survive this, but this isn't just about me. Staying on your original point, there's no chance of the old normal coming back anytime soon, if at all. The harsh reality is that the world's a different place and we have to adapt to it alongside this virus. well it would be appear we are in a similar situation then. Was it really worth wrecking the economy? My own personal opinion is that is has been an over reaction, and more and more people are starting to say the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beatlesaint Posted 6 May, 2020 Share Posted 6 May, 2020 well it would be appear we are in a similar situation then. Was it really worth wrecking the economy? My own personal opinion is that is has been an over reaction, and more and more people are starting to say the same thing An over reaction from the whole world virtually not just the U.K.? Thats one hell of an act of pulling wool over people’s eyes isn’t it? .....in your opinion of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
egg Posted 6 May, 2020 Share Posted 6 May, 2020 well it would be appear we are in a similar situation then. Was it really worth wrecking the economy? My own personal opinion is that is has been an over reaction, and more and more people are starting to say the same thing I think lives comes before money, and I'd rather we locked down harder and earlier. Germany are planning a way out of this, but given how widespread we have it I just don't see a safe way out of it. Our economy will be hit very hard for a long time sadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy_D Posted 6 May, 2020 Share Posted 6 May, 2020 well it would be appear we are in a similar situation then. Was it really worth wrecking the economy? My own personal opinion is that is has been an over reaction, and more and more people are starting to say the same thing Even with all the measures put in place we're likely to see this kill as many people here as the Blitz did. I've only heard people pointing out that the measures probably didn't go far enough. The 500,000 figure is real. It's what would likely have happened without those measures. Yes, they're wrecking the economy, but every country in the world has decided it's worth it to put measures like that in place. If you're facing possibly losing your income due to this, then I'm sorry, it's a horrible thing to happen, and I hope it turns out ok for you. The best advice I can give you is to make sure you're aware of what you'd need to do to claim financial support, just in case you need it, and find out whether there's anything you can do to mitigate or delay outgoings if you need to. I've already been doing this myself. Unfortunately, hoping that everything can somehow suddenly all go back to normal isn't likely to help you much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Kent Saint Posted 6 May, 2020 Share Posted 6 May, 2020 (edited) from the government is this statement Strand two is distribution: getting PPE supplies to where they’re needed.We’ve brought together the NHS, industry and the armed forces to create a giant PPE distribution network almost from scratch. This is working to deliver critical PPE supplies to those who need it. We’ve arranged a priority drop of millions of items of PPE to local resilience forums (LRFs). These are local partnerships that bring together the NHS, councils and the police to co-ordinate the emergency response locally and plug local gaps. The LRFs are prioritising delivery to key frontline workers according to local need. In the coming weeks we will be scaling up our PPE delivery system even further, with a new website allowing the health and care system to order from a central inventory. For me it makes sense to have one central site buying and distributing ppe equipment instead of several trying to buy the same things. Unless you prefer to sell to the highest bidder of course. The whole point is that since the Thatcher years with Kenneth Clarke ( of all people) the NHS has been slowly split up in competing sections just so private companies can get a slice of taxpayers money by offering services to the NHS (Cherry picking of course) . The total irony is just what you are quoting !! It started in the Thatcher years where there was central purchasing , by the NHS itself , for the very reasons you have quoted !! It is going nearly full circle except Deloittes will be running it not the NHS . They will now be creaming off profits , bonus payments etc at the expence of us taxpayers . As foggy says "you couldn't make it up" ( It's just the rest of what Foggy says that is wrong) Of course what the Govt are putting out sounds reasonable but like everything else they have done since this crisis started they are not actually delivering what they say they are . https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52553430 for example. Edited 6 May, 2020 by East Kent Saint Extra info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Kent Saint Posted 6 May, 2020 Share Posted 6 May, 2020 The fraud that is Prof Neil Ferguson, has had to resign after ignoring his own advice on staying home, you couldn't make this up. We should all throw open our doors now and get the f*ck back to normal. Not a new normal, just NORMAL. If this goes on any longer there will be no jobs left for any of us. Mark my words, mass unemployment, and mass house repossessions are on the horizon as a direct result of this house arrest. Jennick also ignored the stay home advice but he didn't resign ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lighthouse Posted 6 May, 2020 Share Posted 6 May, 2020 Do you honestly believe that 500,000 people are going to die? Really? That’s less than 1% of the UK population and has been widely suggested as a possible death toll if the UK took no precautions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Give it to Ron Posted 6 May, 2020 Share Posted 6 May, 2020 well it would be appear we are in a similar situation then. Was it really worth wrecking the economy? My own personal opinion is that is has been an over reaction, and more and more people are starting to say the same thing Yeah that 30k families that lost someone are all having a larf it’s all a joke the 200k being treated it was just a sniffle. The ONS say real figure is nearer 52k but they were all malingerers and joking because you had to stay sat on your arse Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davefoggy Posted 6 May, 2020 Share Posted 6 May, 2020 Yeah that 30k families that lost someone are all having a larf it’s all a joke the 200k being treated it was just a sniffle. The ONS say real figure is nearer 52k but they were all malingerers and joking because you had to stay sat on your arse Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk who's laughing? not me that's for sure. And I haven't been sat on my arse actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brmbrm Posted 7 May, 2020 Share Posted 7 May, 2020 What are the sources of your research? I guess half an hour on the internet is what he calls "research" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brmbrm Posted 7 May, 2020 Share Posted 7 May, 2020 The fraud that is Prof Neil Ferguson, has had to resign after ignoring his own advice on staying home, you couldn't make this up. We should all throw open our doors now and get the f*ck back to normal. Not a new normal, just NORMAL. If this goes on any longer there will be no jobs left for any of us. Mark my words, mass unemployment, and mass house repossessions are on the horizon as a direct result of this house arrest. In what possible way can you describe him as a "fraud"? He is not a politician. He is an academic. He is not a decision maker. He is an advisor. His expertise is hard-earned over the decades by proper, peer-reviewed research. He is an exopert in this area. Sure he was more than stupid to break flimsy "lockdown" rules. And hyporcritical. But in what way a "fraud"? Fraud and hypocrisy, I would think, by the right wing press running him and his affair as the headline, instead of UK now being the European leader in the covid death count. Much more of a concern than an academic having an affair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davefoggy Posted 7 May, 2020 Share Posted 7 May, 2020 In what possible way can you describe him as a "fraud"? He is not a politician. He is an academic. He is not a decision maker. He is an advisor. His expertise is hard-earned over the decades by proper, peer-reviewed research. He is an exopert in this area. Sure he was more than stupid to break flimsy "lockdown" rules. And hyporcritical. But in what way a "fraud"? Fraud and hypocrisy, I would think, by the right wing press running him and his affair as the headline, instead of UK now being the European leader in the covid death count. Much more of a concern than an academic having an affair Why don't you ask some British cattle farmers what they think of expert Prof Neil Ferguson? He single handedly ruined many farming lives, by ordering the slaughter of over 6 million perfectly healthy cattle during the foot & mouth outbreak, only to admit a few years later that he was wrong and it was an 'over reaction' Look at his track record. None of his outrageous predictions have come close to being accurate. And yes, I agree he's not a decision maker, more fool the government for taking his advice without also taking the advice of an economist to look at what effect this lockdown would have. And for the record, I don't give a toss who he's ****ging, good luck to the man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Window Cleaner Posted 7 May, 2020 Share Posted 7 May, 2020 Even with all the measures put in place we're likely to see this kill as many people here as the Blitz did. I've only heard people pointing out that the measures probably didn't go far enough. Didn't we already pass that milestone a week or so back ? Perhaps it was just in London and not the whole of the UK. I know that the Americans surpassed their Vietnam death total about 10 days back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Le God Posted 7 May, 2020 Share Posted 7 May, 2020 well it would be appear we are in a similar situation then. Was it really worth wrecking the economy? My own personal opinion is that is has been an over reaction, and more and more people are starting to say the same thing Why do you value the economy over the lives of humans? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davefoggy Posted 7 May, 2020 Share Posted 7 May, 2020 Why do you value the economy over the lives of humans? The devastating effect that this recession will have will be far worse then corona virus and last a lot longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davefoggy Posted 7 May, 2020 Share Posted 7 May, 2020 I guess half an hour on the internet is what he calls "research" and what research have you been doing? Watching the news doesn't count Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Le God Posted 7 May, 2020 Share Posted 7 May, 2020 The devastating effect that this recession will have will be far worse then corona virus and last a lot longer How is a poor economic situation worse than tens of thousands of deaths? Would you rather be poor... or dead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Le God Posted 7 May, 2020 Share Posted 7 May, 2020 The devastating effect that this recession will have will be far worse then corona virus and last a lot longer Death lasts forever, economies recover! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davefoggy Posted 7 May, 2020 Share Posted 7 May, 2020 How is a poor economic situation worse than tens of thousands of deaths? Would you rather be poor... or dead? why don't you compare the figures. look at total deaths in England & Wales Jan-Apr 2019 compared to 2020, the difference is just over 10,000. Compare to 2015 and the difference is 7000. Over a 5 or 10 year average graph, 2020 will hardly register a blip. We need to get back to normal and stop being so scared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Le God Posted 7 May, 2020 Share Posted 7 May, 2020 why don't you compare the figures. look at total deaths in England & Wales Jan-Apr 2019 compared to 2020, the difference is just over 10,000. Compare to 2015 and the difference is 7000. Over a 5 or 10 year average graph, 2020 will hardly register a blip. We need to get back to normal and stop being so scared Why do you think thousands of deaths don't matter? 'Back to normal' would see tens of thousands more people die. People don't want to die or see their relatives die, which is why your suggestion of going 'back to normal' is nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davefoggy Posted 7 May, 2020 Share Posted 7 May, 2020 Why do you think thousands of deaths don't matter? 'Back to normal' would see tens of thousands more people die. People don't want to die or see their relatives die, which is why your suggestion of going 'back to normal' is nuts. when did I say people dying didn't matter?? I'm asking you to check the figures, the official figures on the ONS. https://www.ons.gov.uk Makes for interesting reading. You will realise that looking over time, this years death figures won't be the massive spike that you imagine. In fact, there have been worse years on record. Go check for yourself. How do you know that 'back to normal would see tens of thousands of deaths' how do you know? Because they told you on the News?? Or because of what Prof Neil Ferguson said? (who has never got one single prediction correct in his whole career) The overwhelming vast majority that get tested positive for covid-19 have mild symptoms, some get sick and get better. Sadly some pass away, which is obviously devastating for families. But again, check the stats, over 95% of those who pass away with cover-19 mentioned on their death certificate, are elderly with an average of 3 underlying health conditions. I'm not making this up, and I'm not looking for an argument with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy_D Posted 7 May, 2020 Share Posted 7 May, 2020 why don't you compare the figures. look at total deaths in England & Wales Jan-Apr 2019 compared to 2020, the difference is just over 10,000. Compare to 2015 and the difference is 7000. Over a 5 or 10 year average graph, 2020 will hardly register a blip. We need to get back to normal and stop being so scared We're currently effectively in a total war situation. All the resources we have can possibly muster are being thrown at healthcare at the moment. Social distancing and lockdown measures are in place, which is not only vastly reducing the effect of COVID-19, but is vastly reducing the risk of other causes of death as a side effect. Despite this, deaths are still vastly higher than they were over the same period last year. You're not comparing like with like when looking at those figures, and it's giving you a false picture that COVID-19 isn't as bad as it is. Going back to normal would be false economy anyway, the effect of COVID-19 unchecked would wipe out any benefit from restarting the economy and then some. It's not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted 7 May, 2020 Share Posted 7 May, 2020 Why do you value the economy over the lives of humans? What is 'the economy' if it is not the lives of humans? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Le God Posted 7 May, 2020 Share Posted 7 May, 2020 What is 'the economy' if it is not the lives of humans? I think you will struggle to find any dictionary that defines the economy as the lives of humans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SFC Forever Posted 7 May, 2020 Share Posted 7 May, 2020 (edited) Do you honestly believe that 500,000 people are going to die? Really? If we are dumb enough to follow your lead that could be a possibility. And when we start getting more and more covid deaths after releasing the country from their severe restrictions, and you have caught the virus what will you say then? Edited 7 May, 2020 by SFC Forever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted 7 May, 2020 Share Posted 7 May, 2020 We're currently effectively in a total war situation. All the resources we have can possibly muster are being thrown at healthcare at the moment. Social distancing and lockdown measures are in place, which is not only vastly reducing the effect of COVID-19, but is vastly reducing the risk of other causes of death as a side effect. Despite this, deaths are still vastly higher than they were over the same period last year. You're not comparing like with like when looking at those figures, and it's giving you a false picture that COVID-19 isn't as bad as it is. Going back to normal would be false economy anyway, the effect of COVID-19 unchecked would wipe out any benefit from restarting the economy and then some. It's not going to happen. Actually it's the converse. Cancer sufferers are not being treated and the same applies to the victimes of heart attacks and trokes. The reservoirs of infection at the moment are hospitals and care homes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy_D Posted 7 May, 2020 Share Posted 7 May, 2020 Actually it's the converse. Cancer sufferers are not being treated and the same applies to the victimes of heart attacks and trokes. The reservoirs of infection at the moment are hospitals and care homes. True, not everyone is benefiting from that effect, I can't imagine what it must be like to be in that situation. Overall though, road traffic accidents are down, according to fitbit, people's resting heart rate is reduced, air pollution is down, A&E departments are facing a vastly reduced demand... etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shurlock Posted 7 May, 2020 Share Posted 7 May, 2020 (edited) well it would be appear we are in a similar situation then. Was it really worth wrecking the economy? My own personal opinion is that is has been an over reaction, and more and more people are starting to say the same thing You do realise you’re in a minority pal - that polling shows the UK public is now among the least likely to believe the country should be opened up if the pandemic is not fully contained, behind the US, France, Germany, Austria, Italy, Japan etc. https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/britons-least-likely-believe-economy-and-businesses-should-open-if-coronavirus-not-fully-contained Edited 7 May, 2020 by shurlock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wild-saint Posted 7 May, 2020 Share Posted 7 May, 2020 You do realise you’re in a minority pal - that polling shows the UK public is now among the least likely to believe the country should be opened up if the pandemic is not fully contained, behind the US, France, Germany, Austria, Italy, Japan etc. https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/britons-least-likely-believe-economy-and-businesses-should-open-if-coronavirus-not-fully-contained Probably because half the country are sat on their fat arses being paid 80% of their wages. Come June when it starts getting reduced they will be less likely to want to sit at home. Interesting that most people seem to think that they will go back to work after furlough when in reality lots of businesses will start looking to shed workers through redundancy once the furlough payments dry up. Watch unemployment start to significant rise over the next 12 months and we will see if people agree with the lockdown once they lose their homes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derry Posted 7 May, 2020 Share Posted 7 May, 2020 (edited) Professor Neil Ferguson. Historically how accurate during various scenarios. 2001 As stated in a previous post 6.5m cattle slaughtered. Years later admitted he was wrong but that's not all. Scientists at the University of Edinburgh called Ferguson's models not fit for purpose. 2002 claimed that vCJD the human form of mad cow disease could kill between 50 and 50000, useless for policy makers. Additionally if it spread to sheep the death toll could rise to 150000. the total death toll to date from vJCD is just 178 2005 warning of bird flu - around 40m people died in 1918 Spanish flu outbreak. there are six times more people on the planet so you could scale it up to around 200m probably. To date WHO H5N1 avian flu has killed just 455 people. 2009 Ferguson claimed that the mortality rate from swine flu was in the range 0.3 per cent to 1.5 per cent but was most likely to be 0.4 per cent. Based on this the Government's reasonable worst case scenario suggested that Britain would suffer 65000 deaths. By the end of the year the mortality rate had been just 0.026 per cent. The UK death toll at the time was 283. In early April Swedish scientists ran Ferguson's model to try and calculate the death toll if the government avoided a lock down. By May 1st the model forecast 40000 Swedes would die. Rising to 96000 by the end of June. Sweden ignored them. Up to yesterday, no lockdown 2941 deaths. Ferguson's prediction on March 16th for UK this year 500000 would die if nothing done to curb it. About 250000 would die if the government maintained it's social distancing without a lockdown.That day Boris told us to keep out of pubs etc and other crowded places and a week later ordered the lockdown. How on earth with his record of predicting could the government even contemplate using Ferguson never mind doing what he advised. Edited 7 May, 2020 by derry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davefoggy Posted 7 May, 2020 Share Posted 7 May, 2020 If we are dumb enough to follow your lead that could be a possibility. And when we start getting more and more covid deaths after releasing the country from their severe restrictions, and you have caught the virus what will you say then? There isn't a country on this planet that will see 500k deaths. or 250k. Lets just stay at home forever shall we? Too risky to leave our own front door? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davefoggy Posted 7 May, 2020 Share Posted 7 May, 2020 Professor Neil Ferguson. Historically how accurate during various scenarios. 2001 As stated in a previous post 6.5m cattle slaughtered. Years later admitted he was wrong but that's not all. Scientists at the University of Edinburgh called Ferguson's models not fit for purpose. 2002 claimed that vCJD the human form of mad cow disease could kill between 50 and 50000 useless for policy makers. Additionally if it spread to sheepthe death toll could rise to 150000. the total death toll to date from vJCD is just 178 2005 warning of bird flu - around 40m people died in 1918 Spanish flu outbreak. there are six times more people on the planet so you could scale it up to around 200m probably. To date WHO H5N1 avian flu has killed just 455 people. 2009 Ferguson claimed that the mortality rate from swine flu was in the range 0.3 per cent to 1.5 per cent but was most likely to be 0.4 per cent. Based on this the Government's reasonable worst case scenario suggested that Britain would suffer 65000 deaths. By the end of the yearthe mortality rate had been just 0.026 per cent. The UK death toll at the time was 283. In early April Swedish scientists ran Ferguson's model to try and calculate the death toll if the government avoided a lock down. By May 1st the model forecast 40000 Swedes would die. Rising to 96000 by the end of June. Sweden ignored them. Up to yesterday, no lockdown 2941 deaths. Ferguson's prediction on March 16th for UK this year 500000 would die if nothing done to curb it. About 250000 would die if the government maintained it's social distancing without a lockdown.That day Boris us to keep out of pubs etc and other crowded places and a week later ordered the lockdown. How on earth with his record of predicting could the government even contemplate using Ferguson never mind doing what he advised. Thank you, thank you. At last, someone with some sense has spoken. Let's see what the response is to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shurlock Posted 7 May, 2020 Share Posted 7 May, 2020 (edited) Professor Neil Ferguson. Historically how accurate during various scenarios. 2001 As stated in a previous post 6.5m cattle slaughtered. Years later admitted he was wrong but that's not all. Scientists at the University of Edinburgh called Ferguson's models not fit for purpose. 2002 claimed that vCJD the human form of mad cow disease could kill between 50 and 50000, useless for policy makers. Additionally if it spread to sheep the death toll could rise to 150000. the total death toll to date from vJCD is just 178 2005 warning of bird flu - around 40m people died in 1918 Spanish flu outbreak. there are six times more people on the planet so you could scale it up to around 200m probably. To date WHO H5N1 avian flu has killed just 455 people. 2009 Ferguson claimed that the mortality rate from swine flu was in the range 0.3 per cent to 1.5 per cent but was most likely to be 0.4 per cent. Based on this the Government's reasonable worst case scenario suggested that Britain would suffer 65000 deaths. By the end of the yearthe mortality rate had been just 0.026 per cent. The UK death toll at the time was 283. In early April Swedish scientists ran Ferguson's model to try and calculate the death toll if the government avoided a lock down. By May 1st the model forecast 40000 Swedes would die. Rising to 96000 by the end of June. Sweden ignored them. Up to yesterday, no lockdown 2941 deaths. Ferguson's prediction on March 16th for UK this year 500000 would die if nothing done to curb it. About 250000 would die if the government maintained it's social distancing without a lockdown.That day Boris us to keep out of pubs etc and other crowded places and a week later ordered the lockdown. How on earth with his record of predicting could the government even contemplate using Ferguson never mind doing what he advised. How's his current prediction for the UK faring? Note he would claim that you've misrepresented the countermeasures the Swedish government has taken and more importantly the voluntary behavioral changes made by the public and hence the number of deaths his team was predicting. Sweden never pursued a simple mitigation strategy which the estimates you've presented here imply. Edited 7 May, 2020 by shurlock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derry Posted 7 May, 2020 Share Posted 7 May, 2020 How's his current prediction for the UK faring? Note he would claim that you've misrepresented the countermeasures the Swedish government has taken and more importantly the behavioral changes made by the public and hence the number of deaths his team was predicting. The Swedish scientist adviser rubbished the UK response. Apparently the Swedish character has helped with social distancing without trashing the economy. As we didn't continue the social distancing we'll never know but I feel it wouldn't be much different if the social distancing was strictly enforced. Londoners filling pubs that weekend didn't help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lighthouse Posted 7 May, 2020 Share Posted 7 May, 2020 There isn't a country on this planet that will see 500k deaths. or 250k. Lets just stay at home forever shall we? Too risky to leave our own front door? China has most likely seen many times that number already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shurlock Posted 7 May, 2020 Share Posted 7 May, 2020 The Swedish scientist adviser rubbished the UK response. Apparently the Swedish character has helped with social distancing without trashing the economy. As we didn't continue the social distancing we'll never know but I feel it wouldn't be much different if the social distancing was strictly enforced. Londoners filling pubs that weekend didn't help. In his own words: https://unherd.com/thepost/imperials-prof-neil-ferguson-responds-to-the-swedish-critique/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davefoggy Posted 7 May, 2020 Share Posted 7 May, 2020 China has most likely seen many times that number already. Evidence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Give it to Ron Posted 7 May, 2020 Share Posted 7 May, 2020 Evidence? How about 1 million devices disappearing from the network totally in the Wuhan region? No mobile data used since first identified source fellow IT Telecom person from that area! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Give it to Ron Posted 7 May, 2020 Share Posted 7 May, 2020 The Swedish scientist adviser rubbished the UK response. Apparently the Swedish character has helped with social distancing without trashing the economy. As we didn't continue the social distancing we'll never know but I feel it wouldn't be much different if the social distancing was strictly enforced. Londoners filling pubs that weekend didn't help. Sweden banned any gathering over 50 people. We allowed Cheltenham, Liverpool v Athletico Madrid game, packed Tubes. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derry Posted 7 May, 2020 Share Posted 7 May, 2020 Plus 18m coming through the airports Jan to Mar. Bloody mad. At the most it should have only been returning UK citizens not 120000 Chinese students etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted 7 May, 2020 Share Posted 7 May, 2020 (edited) Professor Neil Ferguson. Historically how accurate during various scenarios. 2001 As stated in a previous post 6.5m cattle slaughtered. Years later admitted he was wrong but that's not all. Scientists at the University of Edinburgh called Ferguson's models not fit for purpose. 2002 claimed that vCJD the human form of mad cow disease could kill between 50 and 50000, useless for policy makers. Additionally if it spread to sheep the death toll could rise to 150000. the total death toll to date from vJCD is just 178 2005 warning of bird flu - around 40m people died in 1918 Spanish flu outbreak. there are six times more people on the planet so you could scale it up to around 200m probably. To date WHO H5N1 avian flu has killed just 455 people. 2009 Ferguson claimed that the mortality rate from swine flu was in the range 0.3 per cent to 1.5 per cent but was most likely to be 0.4 per cent. Based on this the Government's reasonable worst case scenario suggested that Britain would suffer 65000 deaths. By the end of the year the mortality rate had been just 0.026 per cent. The UK death toll at the time was 283. In early April Swedish scientists ran Ferguson's model to try and calculate the death toll if the government avoided a lock down. By May 1st the model forecast 40000 Swedes would die. Rising to 96000 by the end of June. Sweden ignored them. Up to yesterday, no lockdown 2941 deaths. Ferguson's prediction on March 16th for UK this year 500000 would die if nothing done to curb it. About 250000 would die if the government maintained it's social distancing without a lockdown.That day Boris told us to keep out of pubs etc and other crowded places and a week later ordered the lockdown. How on earth with his record of predicting could the government even contemplate using Ferguson never mind doing what he advised. The code for his model has been released. There’s a scathing review of it here: https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-review-of-fergusons-model/ “Due to bugs, the code can produce very different results given identical inputs. They routinely act as if this is unimportant.“ Instead, the Government is dominated by academics who apparently felt unable to question anything done by a fellow professor. Meanwhile, average citizens like myself are told we should never question “expertise”. Edited 7 May, 2020 by Whitey Grandad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
verlaine1979 Posted 7 May, 2020 Share Posted 7 May, 2020 why don't you compare the figures. look at total deaths in England & Wales Jan-Apr 2019 compared to 2020, the difference is just over 10,000. Compare to 2015 and the difference is 7000. Over a 5 or 10 year average graph, 2020 will hardly register a blip. We need to get back to normal and stop being so scared The numbers you're blithely throwing about represent an approximate doubling of the average number of deaths nationally. So no, they won't just 'hardly register as a blip', they'll stand out like the absolute human tragedy that they are. Moreover, why is it that cretins like you can't grasp the simple point that THE ONLY REASON THE NUMBER OF DEATHS IS SO LOW IS BECAUSE WE HAVE IMPOSED THE LARGEST RESTRICTIONS ON THE ECONOMY AND INDIVIDUAL FREEDOM OF MOVEMENT IN ALMOST A CENTURY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted 7 May, 2020 Share Posted 7 May, 2020 The numbers you're blithely throwing about represent an approximate doubling of the average number of deaths nationally. So no, they won't just 'hardly register as a blip', they'll stand out like the absolute human tragedy that they are. Moreover, why is it that cretins like you can't grasp the simple point that THE ONLY REASON THE NUMBER OF DEATHS IS SO LOW IS BECAUSE WE HAVE IMPOSED THE LARGEST RESTRICTIONS ON THE ECONOMY AND INDIVIDUAL FREEDOM OF MOVEMENT IN ALMOST A CENTURY. Or maybe they would have been lower without the lockdown which is concentrating the virus into hotspots such as hospitals and care homes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shurlock Posted 7 May, 2020 Share Posted 7 May, 2020 (edited) The code for his model has been released. There’s a scathing review of it here: https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-review-of-fergusons-model/ “Due to bugs, the code can produce very different results given identical inputs. They routinely act as if this is unimportant.“ Not read the piece; but there is nothing odd about identical inputs producing different results if you're using a stochastic model which is the default technique for modelling complex, chaotic systems. Models are then run many, many thousands of times and the mean and variance of the outputs are presented. Who'd a thought the world is complex. Edited 7 May, 2020 by shurlock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
egg Posted 7 May, 2020 Share Posted 7 May, 2020 Or maybe they would have been lower without the lockdown which is concentrating the virus into hotspots such as hospitals and care homes? Are you seriously suggesting that our death count would have been lower with no lockdown?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lighthouse Posted 7 May, 2020 Share Posted 7 May, 2020 How about 1 million devices disappearing from the network totally in the Wuhan region? No mobile data used since first identified source fellow IT Telecom person from that area! That's only in Wuhan, I've seen a number of 21 million posted a lot. There's no way to verify it but the official figure of 4,000 is laughable. There is absolutely no way the worlds largest population, with some of the densest conurbations in the world, a heavy skew towards the elderly, appalling air quality run by a totalitarian government which attempted to silence doctors and journalists for months, could possibly have anything remotely close to 4,000 deaths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shurlock Posted 7 May, 2020 Share Posted 7 May, 2020 That's only in Wuhan, I've seen a number of 21 million posted a lot. There's no way to verify it but the official figure of 4,000 is laughable. There is absolutely no way the worlds largest population, with some of the densest conurbations in the world, a heavy skew towards the elderly, appalling air quality run by a totalitarian government which attempted to silence doctors and journalists for months, could possibly have anything remotely close to 4,000 deaths. Their estimates are laughable -even the CCP seems embarrassed by them -hence the crafty revision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted 7 May, 2020 Share Posted 7 May, 2020 Not read the piece; but there is nothing odd about identical inputs producing different results if you're using a stochastic model which is the default technique for modelling complex, chaotic systems. Models are then run many, many thousands of times and the mean and variance of the outputs are presented. Who'd a thought the world is complex. This is the kind of thinking that led to this flawed model. The results were widely different when other institutions tried to replicate the outcomes of the model. They were even different with different sized data arrays and between single and multi threads. This indicates buggy software and should at least have raised some warning flags both figuratively and literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted 7 May, 2020 Share Posted 7 May, 2020 Are you seriously suggesting that our death count would have been lower with no lockdown?! I’m saying that it can’t be proved because we cannot try the alternative approach. As things stand we are higher than other countries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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