Coronavirus Discussion Thread

[aintforever]

Are they saying the heard immunity that the government was slated for was actually the right thing to do?

 

No. From what I’ve read herd immunity will work in the long term but as a policy to start with it, when the government talked about it, would have been suicidal, purely because the NHS doesn’t have capacity.

[Window Cleaner]

No. From what I’ve read herd immunity will work in the long term but as a policy to start with it, when the government talked about it, would have been suicidal, purely because the NHS doesn’t have capacity.

 

And even then there's no guarantee that there will be herd immunity for this virus. There isn't for the common cold and the flu is there. The latest observations are casting doubt on any long terms immunity whatsoever, then again it's the WHO. Most of Sweden's cases are in the big cities, Stockholm, Malmo etc. I think they make up about half of Swden's population so 18000 odd cases and 2150 deaths aren't a great advert for 5 million or so people. Translate that to the UK's 68 million or so and you'd have 27000 or so deaths and about 250000 cases. Death rate is still the same over 10% of diagnosed cases.

Edited 25 April, 2020 by Window Cleaner

[CB Fry]

Locked down.

So a meaningless phrase, then. Thanks.

[shurlock]

I read an article yesterday that said that we fear a second wave in December which would be much worse and that the lockdown has actually been too successful- it's stopped the virus affecting the vulnerable without infecting enough healthy people that the vast majority are still susceptible. Not sure that a harder or longer lockdown wouldn't have made things worse for any second wave. That will all change if they find some effective drugs or vaccine before then of course.

 

Quite possibly and it may coincide with the flu season. But the hope is that the transmission rate is now at low enough levels to contain with contact tracing, testing, quarantines and social distancing (including masks). We may have another outbreak but the hope is that it will be local and contained quickly. People slate the government for not introducing a lockdown early enough (which has an element of truth) but it also misses a great deal.

 

The bigger failing is that we lost control of containment early on which required more extreme measures as a corrective further down the line. Places like Taiwan have avoided a lockdown altogether because they invested heavily in containment. Recall Taiwan -population ~24million- was predicted to be the second worst affected country after China; yet has experienced only 6 deaths to date.

 

Needless to say, it will be a holding pattern until an effective antiviral or vaccine is found but policy can be done more or less smartly in the meantime (hence the different stats around the world after controlling for population, demographics etc) without succumbing to the fatalism that we should just let the virus rip.

Edited 25 April, 2020 by shurlock

[Window Cleaner]

Quite possibly and it may coincide with the flu season. But the hope is that the transmission rate is now at low enough levels to contain with contact tracing, testing, quarantines and social distancing (including masks). We may have another outbreak but the hope is that it will be local and contained quickly. People slate the government for not introducing a lockdown early enough (which has an element of truth) but it also misses a great deal. The bigger failing is that we lost control of containment early on which required more extreme measures as a corrective further down the line. Places like Taiwan have avoided a lockdown altogether because they invested heavily in containment. Recall Taiwan -population ~24million- was predicted to be the second worst affected country after China; yet has experienced only 6 deaths to date. Needless to say, it will be a holding pattern until an effective antiviral or vaccine is found but policy can be done more or less smartly in the meantime (hence the different stats around the world after controlling for population, demographics etc) without succumbing to the fatalism that we should just let the virus rip.

 

Didn't Taiwan shut themselves off completely very early on? Plus they'd learnt something from the SARS outbreak in 2002/3.

Britain and the rest of the world might have fared better if the borders had been closed completely early on, it's just a hypothesis though.

[shurlock]

Didn't Taiwan shut themselves off completely very early on? Plus they'd learnt something from the SARS outbreak in 2002/3.

Britain and the rest of the world might have fared better if the borders had been closed completely early on, it's just a hypothesis though.

 

I don’t think they banned all foreign travellers coming to Taiwan (bar certain categories) till March 19, though they adopted other travel measures (re. travel to China and HK) before then. Yes they definitely learnt something from SARS and were naturally sceptical of the horse**** coming out of China. They were the first to warn the WHO about the possibility of human-to-human transmission.

Edited 25 April, 2020 by shurlock

[Window Cleaner]

I don’t think they banned all foreign travellers coming to Taiwan (bar certain categories) till March 19, though they adopted other travel measures (e.g. banning tours to China and entry of cruise ships) before then.

 

Right, somehow they managed to have very few cases, didn't make 100 until about mid-march. Perhaps the strain that they had/have is less contagious. Is it hot and humid in Taiwan ?

[Noodles34]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-52425825

 

update

 

The WHO have not covered themselves in glory. Failed to recognise the seriousness of it and failed to 'out' China for its lies.

[Noodles34]

Right, somehow they managed to have very few cases, didn't make 100 until about mid-march. Perhaps the strain that they had/have is less contagious. Is it hot and humid in Taiwan ?

 

There was an advert for 'visiting Taiwan' on the TV the other day. maybe thats the place to be.

[benjii]

Are they saying the heard immunity that the government was slated for was actually the right thing to do?

 

No one can say that because there isn't evidence that immunity is developed.

[Noodles34]

No one can say that because there isn't evidence that immunity is developed.

 

i think the evidence that for a 'period of time' or 'against this strain' is pretty undeniable, I had it a month ago, since being going to shops and work,etc, no gloves, no mask, trying to remember to wash my hands afterwards, and I have not got it again. Luck maybe, yeah, but where are all these people in the last 5 months that have contracted it multiple times?

[Matthew Le God]

i think the evidence that for a 'period of time' or 'against this strain' is pretty undeniable, I had it a month ago, since being going to shops and work,etc, no gloves, no mask, trying to remember to wash my hands afterwards, and I have not got it again.

 

A dataset of one person isn't great. Especially as you and others who have had it have hopefully been socially distancing since recovering.

[Noodles34]

A dataset of one person isn't great. Especially as you and others who have had it have hopefully been socially distancing since recovering.

 

It is not one person, i am an example but as i keep saying, the news is not saying about any reinfections.

Yes, even though i think i am infallible now, i am still keeping to the rules.

[Matthew Le God]

It is not one person, i am an example but as i keep saying, the news is not saying about any reinfections.

Yes, even though i think i am infallible now, i am still keeping to the rules.

 

WHO said there was "no evidence" that people who had developed antibodies after recovering from the virus were protected against a second infection.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-52425825

[Noodles34]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-52425825

 

except no one has come forward (I think there have been two examples, unproven) saying they have had it twice. Clearly testing would help but it appears pretty unofficially conclusive to me.

[hypochondriac]

Quite possibly and it may coincide with the flu season. But the hope is that the transmission rate is now at low enough levels to contain with contact tracing, testing, quarantines and social distancing (including masks). We may have another outbreak but the hope is that it will be local and contained quickly. People slate the government for not introducing a lockdown early enough (which has an element of truth) but it also misses a great deal.

 

The bigger failing is that we lost control of containment early on which required more extreme measures as a corrective further down the line. Places like Taiwan have avoided a lockdown altogether because they invested heavily in containment. Recall Taiwan -population ~24million- was predicted to be the second worst affected country after China; yet has experienced only 6 deaths to date.

 

Needless to say, it will be a holding pattern until an effective antiviral or vaccine is found but policy can be done more or less smartly in the meantime (hence the different stats around the world after controlling for population, demographics etc) without succumbing to the fatalism that we should just let the virus rip.

 

Agree with all of that. Hopefully the government have realised the importance of being ready for the next phase that will inevitably come after a loosening of restrictions.

[benjii]

except no one has come forward (I think there have been two examples, unproven) saying they have had it twice. Clearly testing would help but it appears pretty unofficially conclusive to me.

 

Maybe lots of people have had it twice without being tested.

 

The point is, we don't know, so "herd immunity" ast a strategy is a gamble.

[ooh it's a corner]

The problem with comparing numbers from our country to another is that you cannot guarantee everyone is testing the same, or behaving the same.

 

For example, if someone dies in a German hopsital because they broke their leg and then got sick, got pneumonia and died, they will not be recorded as a Corona death. In Belgium they almost certainly would, in the UK they might.

 

South Korea (lauded as a complete success) has government documentation that sets their peak at the end of Feb and has been reporting new cases in their teens each day but in 1 week in March, in 1 hospital, they had 457 pneumonia cases, 24 deaths on ZERO corona.

 

The numbers are simply not the same from one place to the next

[AshValeSaint]

The problem with comparing numbers from our country to another is that you cannot guarantee everyone is testing the same, or behaving the same.

 

For example, if someone dies in a German hopsital because they broke their leg and then got sick, got pneumonia and died, they will not be recorded as a Corona death. In Belgium they almost certainly would, in the UK they might.

 

South Korea (lauded as a complete success) has government documentation that sets their peak at the end of Feb and has been reporting new cases in their teens each day but in 1 week in March, in 1 hospital, they had 457 pneumonia cases, 24 deaths on ZERO corona.

 

The numbers are simply not the same from one place to the next

 

Also many other factors such as population density, and general health of the population. The average age in Germany might be lower as might the percentage of obese people etc. I read somewhere that London has one of the highest population densities in Europe which explains why it was hit so badly.

[East Kent Saint]

Different approach to these scroungers !!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cumbria-52420392?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business&link_location=live-reporting-story

[Kingsland Codger]

except no one has come forward (I think there have been two examples, unproven) saying they have had it twice. Clearly testing would help but it appears pretty unofficially conclusive to me.

 

There are some reports in South Korea of re-infection. The first link below is from 2 weeks ago (12 April) ...

 

http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2020/04/119_287752.html

 

'Jung Eun-kyeong, director of Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC), said on Sunday (12 April) the organization was exploring possible causes of reinfection.

 

"For now it is uncertain what led to reinfection ― revived virus that survived treatment or fresh exposure to the virus after recovery," Jung said'.

 

and the second link is from today (26 April).

 

http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20200426000109

 

"The number of those discharged from care after recovering rose by 82 to 8,717. Testing negative in two tests performed at 24-hour intervals qualifies as recovery.

 

But Korea Center for Disease Control Deputy Director Kwon Jun-wook said at least 250 of the recovered patients have tested positive for the virus again.

 

Kwon said the patients who are showing positive RT-PCR results post-recovery do not appear to be highly infectious, but investigation was still underway for the suspected relapse cases."

 

I haven't seen any follow-up reports as to why or how re-infection is happening.

[Noodles34]

There are some reports in South Korea of re-infection. The first link below is from 2 weeks ago (12 April) ...

 

http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2020/04/119_287752.html

 

'Jung Eun-kyeong, director of Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC), said on Sunday (12 April) the organization was exploring possible causes of reinfection.

 

"For now it is uncertain what led to reinfection ― revived virus that survived treatment or fresh exposure to the virus after recovery," Jung said'.

 

and the second link is from today (26 April).

 

http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20200426000109

 

"The number of those discharged from care after recovering rose by 82 to 8,717. Testing negative in two tests performed at 24-hour intervals qualifies as recovery.

 

But Korea Center for Disease Control Deputy Director Kwon Jun-wook said at least 250 of the recovered patients have tested positive for the virus again.

 

Kwon said the patients who are showing positive RT-PCR results post-recovery do not appear to be highly infectious, but investigation was still underway for the suspected relapse cases."

 

I haven't seen any follow-up reports as to why or how re-infection is happening.

 

thanks for that, interesting reading but suggests that it may not be reinfection but a resurgent initial infection.

Thiugh I never said it was impossible to get it again, and clearly I am no scientist, just think if it was that straight forward we’d have seen so many more examples of what you have linked.

[SaintsLoyal]

Just wanted to highlight the passing of a Saints fan yesterday and bring the realism, that he was all ok just ten days ago and on Saturday he felt he was recovering only to die in he early hours of yesterday.

[Saints foreva]

Just wanted to highlight the passing of a Saints fan yesterday and bring the realism, that he was all ok just ten days ago and on Saturday he felt he was recovering only to die in he early hours of yesterday.

 

Just seen that on twitter. Very sad news and my thoughts are with his family. RIP.

[Shroppie]

Just seen FIFA are suggesting five subs for the rest of this season to help players cope with the number and frequency of games.

 

Seems to me that's yet another move to benefit the rich teams who have an overload of quality players that they'll now be able to utilise.

 

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[Matthew Le God]

Just seen FIFA are suggesting five subs for the rest of this season to help players cope with the number and frequency of games.

 

Seems to me that's yet another move to benefit the rich teams who have an overload of quality players that they'll now be able to utilise.

 

It also benefits those with less depth in their squads as well... because the best players in those squads won't have to play every minute when the season restarts and the games come thick and fast.

[Shroppie]

It also benefits those with less depth in their squads as well... because the best players in those squads won't have to play every minute when the season restarts and the games come thick and fast.

Except that the weaker teams tend to need their best players on the pitch mist of the time. They haven't got equally good replacements on the bench.

 

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[SW5 SAINT]

I hope if they do try and get the season played to it’s conclusion, they don’t just focus on the the EPL. Televise the matches in Leagues 1 and 2 and spread the cash. After all it’s those clubs who will be hit hardest by no income from crowds......

[Matthew Le God]

I hope if they do try and get the season played to it’s conclusion, they don’t just focus on the the EPL. Televise the matches in Leagues 1 and 2 and spread the cash. After all it’s those clubs who will be hit hardest by no income from crowds......

 

10 days ago they said...

 

The English Football League is planning to stream every remaining game live once the season restarts, chairman Rick Parry has said in a letter to fans.

 

[h=1]https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52317944[/h]

[derry]

I hope if they do try and get the season played to it’s conclusion, they don’t just focus on the the EPL. Televise the matches in Leagues 1 and 2 and spread the cash. After all it’s those clubs who will be hit hardest by no income from crowds......

 

Just for information. All 92 clubs in all four leagues were already being televised by PL and EFL. I was able to watch any of them I fancied on Saintsplayer. Which with it's associated apps is now a really high class site. It does everything from trials, 24 hours to a year for £70 which includes thousands of films and TV series on demand. It has it's own VPN. Have a look on www.saintsplayer.com

[bangkoksaint]

Football will not re-start in the near future. When social distancing will still be in the work places and other venues for many months to come it’s impossible for contact sport to start up again just like that. Schools are talking about reduced class sizes for the foreseeable future so the thought of players jostling at corners and having full contact just isn’t going to happen!! I listened to Simon Jordan on TalkSPORT this morning.........whatever you think of him or that channel have a listen and then make up your mind whether you think it’ll start up again.

[Whitey Grandad]

If the government introduce their suggested 14-day quarantine for new arrivals then several Premier League managers and player would be affected. Ralph is in Germany at the moment.

 

 

"Norwich City manager Daniel Farke is in Germany along with at least two members of the playing squad, as is Southampton manager Ralph Hasenhüttl. One Southampton player is out of the country, while a handful of Brighton and Hove Albion players are also in their hometowns abroad.

 

Some clubs have been cautious about revealing the identity of these players for security reasons, but their absence is likely to raise issues for ‘Project Restart’, the Premier League’s plan to resume the season behind closed doors."

 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/sport/four-top-flight-managers-and-a-dozen-player-abroad-could-face-14-day-quarantine-7crv9xgdj (paywall)

[Greenridge]

Football will not re-start in the near future. When social distancing will still be in the work places and other venues for many months to come it’s impossible for contact sport to start up again just like that. Schools are talking about reduced class sizes for the foreseeable future so the thought of players jostling at corners and having full contact just isn’t going to happen!! I listened to Simon Jordan on TalkSPORT this morning.........whatever you think of him or that channel have a listen and then make up your mind whether you think it’ll start up again.

 

I'm assuming one of the criteria to be met is that all players and coaching staff will be tested beforehand and regularly thereafter.

[aintforever]

If the government introduce their suggested 14-day quarantine for new arrivals then several Premier League managers and player would be affected. Ralph is in Germany at the moment.

 

 

"Norwich City manager Daniel Farke is in Germany along with at least two members of the playing squad, as is Southampton manager Ralph Hasenhüttl. One Southampton player is out of the country, while a handful of Brighton and Hove Albion players are also in their hometowns abroad.

 

Some clubs have been cautious about revealing the identity of these players for security reasons, but their absence is likely to raise issues for ‘Project Restart’, the Premier League’s plan to resume the season behind closed doors."

 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/sport/four-top-flight-managers-and-a-dozen-player-abroad-could-face-14-day-quarantine-7crv9xgdj (paywall)

 

Why would self isolating for two weeks be a problem?

[Minsk]

I'm assuming one of the criteria to be met is that all players and coaching staff will be tested beforehand and regularly thereafter.

 

Not aimed solely at you but......

 

So, test everybody required for a match day behind closed doors - before and after every match. How many people is that? Random guess 150 -200? Then you need to take into account that these tests are not 100% accurate, so would really need to test everyone twice? Would the pre-match tests be done in the stadium? Maybe too late if yes. So, before they set off for the stadium? How would this be done for stadium staff, officials, etc? Maybe the away team could be tested at their hotels? But then wouldn't you also have to test everyone who was working in the hotel also? And all this testing, training (or are they going to test all players/coaches every day before and after training as well?), briefings, etc conducted with social distancing?

 

So how many tests would have to be conducted to just hold one match? 500? 800? Multiplied by how many remaining throughout all of the 4 professional divisions? Who is going to pay for these tests? Who is going to analyse them? Wouldn't those tests be put to better use on doctor's, nurses, etc?

[Greenridge]

Not aimed solely at you but......

 

So, test everybody required for a match day behind closed doors - before and after every match. How many people is that? Random guess 150 -200? Then you need to take into account that these tests are not 100% accurate, so would really need to test everyone twice? Would the pre-match tests be done in the stadium? Maybe too late if yes. So, before they set off for the stadium? How would this be done for stadium staff, officials, etc? Maybe the away team could be tested at their hotels? But then wouldn't you also have to test everyone who was working in the hotel also? And all this testing, training (or are they going to test all players/coaches every day before and after training as well?), briefings, etc conducted with social distancing?

 

So how many tests would have to be conducted to just hold one match? 500? 800? Multiplied by how many remaining throughout all of the 4 professional divisions? Who is going to pay for these tests? Who is going to analyse them? Wouldn't those tests be put to better use on doctor's, nurses, etc?

 

I was rather addressing Bangkok's point about player contact. And yes you are of course right. There's a lot to work out but you know that football is a multi-billion pound game so I actually don't think the costs of testing will be an issue in monetary terms but the opportunity cost ie ensuring that frontline / key etc workers not being compromised on their testing etc maybe more of an issue.

[Whitey Grandad]

Why would self isolating for two weeks be a problem?

It would mean that Ralph could have no contact with the team during those two weeks. This would delay the restart of matches.

[John D]

Will depend on the number and type of tests available. IF the Govt gets to the 100000 tests a day capacity and the season runs for 10 weeks that would be around 7m tests available. There are 90 odd games to be played, if each game requires 500 people to be tested 5 times that is around 200k tests so not a huge % of availability and one that Govt may be happy to accept if it helps the wider population

 

*All numbers are guesses and probably widely inaccurate*

[John D]

Meanwhile it looks like ligue 1 is about to be abandoned as French Govt is set to ban all sport til the end of July

[Shroppie]

Meanwhile it looks like ligue 1 is about to be abandoned as French Govt is set to ban all sport til the end of July

Until September, actually. And FIFA medical chief recommends no football at all until September.

 

PL will soon get desperate, but the reality is the prospects of this season being finished are receding fast.

 

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[RedWillie]

Its official now...French season is officially cancelled

 

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-boris-johnson-to-lead-nation-in-minutes-silence-in-tribute-to-key-workers-11979780

[Jimmy_D]

Until September, actually. And FIFA medical chief recommends no football at all until September.

 

PL will soon get desperate, but the reality is the prospects of this season being finished are receding fast.

 

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I don't think 'project restart' is about actually restarting the league personally. Anyone can see that's extremely unlikely.

 

I think it's more about liability, the Premier League being able to say they did everything they could to restart and it was taken out of their hands eventually.

[Shroppie]

I don't think 'project restart' is about actually restarting the league personally. Anyone can see that's extremely unlikely.

 

I think it's more about liability, the Premier League being able to say they did everything they could to restart and it was taken out of their hands eventually.

You could well be right. Trying to limit to TV companies being able to claim back. Force majeur would probably work as an argument if they're stopped by the government, but I wonder if the government's links with Sky prompted their statement yesterday that they want it restarted.

 

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[Matthew Le God]

Its official now...French season is officially cancelled

 

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-boris-johnson-to-lead-nation-in-minutes-silence-in-tribute-to-key-workers-11979780

 

[video=youtube;yZUKEVU-TwM]

[Whitey Grandad]

I don't think 'project restart' is about actually restarting the league personally. Anyone can see that's extremely unlikely.

 

I think it's more about liability, the Premier League being able to say they did everything they could to restart and it was taken out of their hands eventually.

A fair point.

 

It was a bit like that just before the lockdown started where some businesses could not invoke their business interruption insurance until it was a government decision that closed them.

 

Personally I think this last season is null and void. Anything that was concocted would not be football as we know it.

[davefoggy]

Well, with British Airways making 12,000 redundancies and John Lewis talking of permanent store closures, and many hundreds of smaller businesses set to make employees redundant, they might as well play behind closed doors from now on as no one will be able to afford to go anymore, me included.

 

I just hope this crashing of our economy doesn't turn out to be a complete over reaction as it'll be too late to recover by then.

Last April (2019) over 44,000 people died in England and Wales, by the way, and no mention of it in the media anywhere

[bangkoksaint]

BA is just the start. The economy is in free fall and football will be a long way down the pecking order. The FA and PL need to wake up and smell the coffee

[Greenridge]

I just hope this crashing of our economy doesn't turn out to be a complete over reaction as it'll be too late to recover by then.

Last April (2019) over 44,000 people died in England and Wales, by the way, and no mention of it in the media anywhere

 

And the same period of 2020 will see the death rate around 50% higher than the normal rate at this time of the year and who knows what that figure would have been without the controls put in place.

[davefoggy]

And the same period of 2020 will see the death rate around 50% higher than the normal rate at this time of the year and who knows what that figure would have been without the controls put in place.

 

so what about Winter 2014/15, when the death rate was 35% higher than the 5 year average? No mention in media. The first part of January 2015 (5-11 Jan) saw weekly deaths at 15,000. Way more than the 2,000 weekly deaths we are currently seeing. Again, no mention in media.

 

Start asking questions people, don't believe the hype, and get this country back open for business before it's too late.

[Lighthouse]

so what about Winter 2014/15, when the death rate was 35% higher than the 5 year average? No mention in media. The first part of January 2015 (5-11 Jan) saw weekly deaths at 15,000. Way more than the 2,000 weekly deaths we are currently seeing. Again, no mention in media.

 

Start asking questions people, don't believe the hype, and get this country back open for business before it's too late.

 

We are and anyone with any sense can see that these restrictions are necessary to prevent a massive pile up of bodies. You're trying to compare a spike of a couple of weeks winter flu with a worldwide pandemic and that's after all the countermeasures we've taken.