Coronavirus Discussion Thread

[benjii]

Www.gov.uk/government/statistics/annual-flu-reports

 

So there are literally a few hundred severe acute respiratory admissions each year due to flu and vaccination uptake in the over 65s is around 70%.

 

So in the UK, hardly anyone is admitted to hospital or killed by flu. Funnily enough, that might have something to do with flu having been around for thousands of years and a vaccine being available.

 

Anyone who compares this to flu, henceforth, should be given a kicking.

[benjii]

The WHO estimates that between 290,000 and 650,000 respiratory deaths globally each year are associated with seasonal influenza.

 

Of which hardly any are in the UK so what relevance does this have to the UK? You might as well post how many people die of malaria or rabies, mush.

[Matthew Le God]

The WHO estimates that between 290,000 and 650,000 respiratory deaths globally each year are associated with seasonal influenza.

 

If we did nothing the Government believe 500,000 would die in the UK. If every country did that we'd have millions of deaths.

 

The 1918 pandemic infected 500 million of a 1.8 billion global population and killed 50 to 100 million.

[davefoggy]

Well I'm confused now, around 3000 deaths in China and it's almost under control there now. So where does this figure of 250,000 come from as an estimate of UK deaths? Someone please explain as I don't get it

[hypochondriac]

Well I'm confused now, around 3000 deaths in China and it's almost under control there now. So where does this figure of 250,000 come from as an estimate of UK deaths? Someone please explain as I don't get it

Define almost under control? Also it's widely believed that those figures are wrong and that the disease will rear its head again once China returns to normal.

[norwaysaint]

The WHO estimates that between 290,000 and 650,000 respiratory deaths globally each year are associated with seasonal influenza.

 

Are there really still people setting themselves up as the real experts here and feeling they know better than the combined experts of just about every nation on Earth? I find it incredible. Are you also one of those who think it's a conspiracy? That world leaders have got together in a bizzare bid to tank their own economies and preside over a situation they cannot win?

 

The general population has a resistance to the worst effects of flu, either due to vaccination or resistance developed over generations of immunity and natural selection. This is a disease that we have ot developed any resistance to and that leaves huge amounts of people very vulnerable. This isn't a new thing, we destroyed indigenous populations across the world by introducing simple things like influenza to them, when history hadn't given them any level of resistance. Spanish flu did it to us a hundred years ago.

 

But sure, you're the expert here and everyone else is talking nonsense. I'm just glad I read this forum, so that I can find the real truth the "experts" are all missing...

[Matthew Le God]

Well I'm confused now, around 3000 deaths in China and it's almost under control there now. So where does this figure of 250,000 come from as an estimate of UK deaths? Someone please explain as I don't get it

 

It is 500,000 for doing nothing, 250,000 for mitigation and trying to keep it under 20,000 for suppress. Measures to keep it under 20k are now the aim it seems.

 

Do you not think it is ok for the whole population to be restricted to try and keep deaths under 20,000? If they didn't then we'd be back to the 250k or 500k figure.

 

None of these measures are used for seasonal flu because you don't get 500k deaths in the UK, that is why they are needed for this!

[davefoggy]

Are there really still people setting themselves up as the real experts here and feeling they know better than the combined experts of just about every nation on Earth? I find it incredible. Are you also one of those who think it's a conspiracy? That world leaders have got together in a bizzare bid to tank their own economies and preside over a situation they cannot win?

 

The general population has a resistance to the worst effects of flu, either due to vaccination or resistance developed over generations of immunity and natural selection. This is a disease that we have ot developed any resistance to and that leaves huge amounts of people very vulnerable. This isn't a new thing, we destroyed indigenous populations across the world by introducing simple things like influenza to them, when history hadn't given them any level of resistance. Spanish flu did it to us a hundred years ago.

 

But sure, you're the expert here and everyone else is talking nonsense. I'm just glad I read this forum, so that I can find the real truth the "experts" are all missing...

 

I'm far from being an expert, and I have never claimed to be. Just trying to get my head around the numbers and the situation that's all. Apart from the health aspect, the economic fall out is going to be horrific, I don't know how I'm paying my bills for the next few months, it's scary

[norwaysaint]

I'm far from being an expert, and I have never claimed to be. Just trying to get my head around the numbers and the situation that's all. Apart from the health aspect, the economic fall out is going to be horrific, I don't know how I'm paying my bills for the next few months, it's scary

 

It is. It's going to be very strenuous on a huge amount of people and the recovery will take time. We make this choice because for most people, financial hardship is preferable to losing loved ones when we could have avoided it. I'll tighten my belt for a couple of years rather than put my family in danger just because my comfy life will be compromised.

[Matthew Le God]

BBC have cancelled filming Casualty, Doctors and Holby City, I guess that makes sense as it’ll free up some doctors and nurses.

[Matthew Le God]

We're in fcking weird times now MLG is making jokes.

 

I make lots of attempts at jokes. Not just during pandemics!

 

https://twitter.com/MatthewLeGod

[warsash saint]

Do you mean you actually believe the most skewed bias unreliable, anti government, anti Uk news outlet on this planet?

Their news last night on this was scarrily laughable and people are buying into them, it’s scandalous.

 

With Laura Kuenssburg on the Tory payroll, I don't think you can claim the BBC are anti Government!!

[Shroppie]

I'm actually quite grateful there aren't more of these idiots on here. Well done everyone else.

 

After the last year or two, thinking our media is anti government...I mean, christ. What the hell would they have had to do to get chris on side I wonder? Shoot every government critic I guess. Give Farage an extra 400 hours a month.

This.

 

Seriously, it's getting scary how this government is brainwashing large parts of the population into thinking any balanced reporting or expression of varying views is anti government, biased and has to be suppressed. This government wants absolute power with all opposition removed.

 

There is plenty of historical evidence as to where that leads.

 

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[hypochondriac]

And so the coronavirus thread devolves into some silly partisan political thread where no one wins.

[doddisalegend]

Well it's not all bad I've received a ( temporary) promotion at work. I'd like to think it's becuase I'm reliable and good at my job. Sadly I think it's becuase there are now only two people left standing in my department and the other guy is a grade A tosser that no one likes.

 

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[Shroppie]

Meanwhile, back to football.

 

I've seen rumours (no idea how valid) that Premier League are going to try to play all remaining games at neutral venues behind closed doors, all on TV.

 

I have doubts but if it does happen, no more home games for Saints, which has to be a result. [emoji23]

 

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[davefoggy]

Well it's not all bad I've received a ( temporary) promotion at work. I'd like to think it's becuase I'm reliable and good at my job. Sadly I think it's becuase there are now only two people left standing in my department and the other guy is a grade A tosser that no one likes.

 

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Cheers for that, reminds me of The Office when David Brent announces redundancies followed by his own promotion, classic

[norwaysaint]

Meanwhile, back to football.

 

I've seen rumours (no idea how valid) that Premier League are going to try to play all remaining games at neutral venues behind closed doors, all on TV.

 

I have doubts but if it does happen, no more home games for Saints, which has to be a result. [emoji23]

 

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During this period? I doubt many players would be too happy about being exposed to proximity and contact like that.

[Shroppie]

During this period? I doubt many players would be too happy about being exposed to proximity and contact like that.

I tend to agree with you. I think there are some desperate suggestions being made.

 

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[ashnats]

They could play in red and white hazmat suits...

[Alanh]

Just been to Tesco which was fairly empty of produce but pretty full with customers given it was late morning on a Wednesday. Quite a few over 70's in there who seemed unconcerned with the advice regarding self isolation. It won't be long before we are in the same situation as other European countries where we are forced to be isolated and the police / army have powers to stop people in the streets.

[SFC Forever]

Some people always look for the worst case scenario first, and then look again in case a worse one has appeared.

[Manuel]

Just been to Tesco which was fairly empty of produce but pretty full with customers given it was late morning on a Wednesday. Quite a few over 70's in there who seemed unconcerned with the advice regarding self isolation. It won't be long before we are in the same situation as other European countries where we are forced to be isolated and the police / army have powers to stop people in the streets.

I'm not surprised about the lack of food. I was in my Tesco today and I couldn't see any obvious panic buying or unnecessary stocking up. I think, like me, people are thinking they and their family are likely to be spending a lot more time indoors and are getting extra food in. Definitely 2 out of 4 of our family will now be off work and subsequently eating at home. 3rd is a student so she won't be far behind.

 

Shelves are shockingly empty though. Guessing the lack of food goes right up to manufacture level. Perhaps we will be looking at a food crisis before long...

Edited 18 March, 2020 by Manuel

[buctootim]

I'm not surprised about the lack of food. I was in my Tesco today and I couldn't see any obvious panic buying or unnecessary stocking up. I think, like me, people are thinking they and their family are likely to be spending a lot more time indoors and are getting extra food in. Definitely 2 out of 4 of our family will now be off work and subsequently eating at home. 3rd is a student so she won't be far behind.

 

Shelves are shockingly empty though. Guessing the lack of food goes right up to manufacture level. Perhaps we will be looking at a food crisis before long...

 

Roughly the same amount of food is being consumed - but its being bought in different places. Supermarkets are up and restaurants, sandwich shops and work / school canteens are down.

 

How much of it is supply chain issues and how much simply supermarkets being caught out by demand and not adjusting their orders quick enough, who knows?

[buctootim]

That's based on a total lockdown of certain provinces. It will spread the moment lockdown is lifted. They're delaying the spread it's not defeating the virus and situation over. Far from it.

 

Guardian science weekly podcast has some decent updates and interviews on it with scientists and latest evidence, data etc. It's a tricky one with so much misinformation but all the data being released has a huge number of assumptions behind it. Basically no one has this under control until there's widespread vaccination. And that is unlikely to be for a year or more. Until then it's limiting damage, getting health services, prepared, identifying cases by testing as many as possible, and social distancing, isolation periods and lockdown.

 

Death rate estimates range from just under 1% to over 5% in various models depending on how successful countries are at these methods and when a vaccine comes in. So in the UK we are talking 500,000 to 3-4 million. It really depends if there's hospital capacity and at the moment we're way, way off on that.

 

It's a delicate balance between explaining the current data and trends in the media and not scaremongering. Because the reality of it is extremely scary.

 

Meh. In the end total deaths will be roughly the same as a bad flu year. Reckon c20,000

[Manuel]

I guess, looking to the future, food manufactures may be treated much the same as healthcare workers and instructed to continue to work until they have symptoms. Of course we buy much of our food from Europe which will be a factor.

 

I imagine if the UK suddenly had to look after itself regarding food manufacture and supply it would starve (not saying that scenario is imminent or even likely).

[OttawaSaint]

They could play in red and white hazmat suits...

 

Oh come on ref, that hit him on the respirator tube, no way that’s a peno, are you blind?

[OttawaSaint]

Meh. In the end total deaths will be roughly the same as a bad flu year. Reckon c20,000

 

If that turns out true it will be BECAUSE of the isolation measures that have been undertaken. Carrying on regardless (as we would do in flu season) would result in much higher death tolls.

[suewhistle]

I've been reading the Italian newspapers online plus have friends over there which gives a good forewarning of where we're heading. I saw one report of a place called Castiglione d'Adda, on the northern plain, who have had 53 deaths. I'd vaguely heard of the name before but had no idea how big it was so looked up the population: less than 5000 people.. Now it may be a hot spot, which was why it featured in an article a few days ago, but those of you comparing it to flu might like to ponder a bit more and take steps that you're not also in a hot spot.

[suewhistle]

Similarly an Iranian university has modelled potential deaths there (where news on numbers looks like it has been surpressed). If government guidelines are actively ignored (and crowds have been trying to storm into closed mosques) they reckon deaths could reach 3 million..

[Toadhall Saint]

I've been reading the Italian newspapers online plus have friends over there which gives a good forewarning of where we're heading. I saw one report of a place called Castiglione d'Adda, on the northern plain, who have had 53 deaths. I'd vaguely heard of the name before but had no idea how big it was so looked up the population: less than 5000 people.. Now it may be a hot spot, which was why it featured in an article a few days ago, but those of you comparing it to flu might like to ponder a bit more and take steps that you're not also in a hot spot.

 

This is something that should be made more visible from a Uk perspective - the current hot spots that is. If they were then the people in those areas are at least more informed. On the downside tho it could mean people not living in a hot spot might not take it so seriously.

[saintoli]

I see the club has put the Everton tickets up for sale? Seems a strange thing to do in the current situation.

[East Kent Saint]

Why do they put up Boris everyday ? No sensible person would believe anything he says even (by chance) it was true . Reference ; leave campaign and the last get it done election campaign.

The BBC is just about a worldwide respected provider of News despite the World Service funding being transfered from the Foreign Office and now the over 75 s concession being transfered from the Social Services budget also to the BBC.Around the world the BBC is respected but all independant news services are being undermined by dictators and elected dictatorships .

Well thats got that off my chest !!!!!!!

[Batman]

Why do they put up Boris everyday ? No sensible person would believe anything he says even (by chance) it was true . Reference ; leave campaign and the last get it done election campaign.

The BBC is just about a worldwide respected provider of News despite the World Service funding being transfered from the Foreign Office and now the over 75 s concession being transfered from the Social Services budget also to the BBC.Around the world the BBC is respected but all independant news services are being undermined by dictators and elected dictatorships .

Well thats got that off my chest !!!!!!!

 

jesus

[Toadhall Saint]

jesus

 

He’d be no good either [emoji6]

[Lord Duckhunter]

Meh. In the end total deaths will be roughly the same as a bad flu year. Reckon c20,000

 

What an ignorant statement.

 

1. Draconian measures will limit the numbers, if the elderly and ill were in lockdown every winter, flu would kill less.

2. Cancer patients, transplant patients, people with all sorts of illness’ survive bad flu years, they won’t survive this.

3. So many people will be hospitalised that preventable deaths will happen. People who suffer heart attacks or strokes won’t get the same level of treatment they’d get in bad flu years, and minor operations being put off, will undoubtably lead to serious conditions that’ll eventually kill people.

 

 

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[whelk]

What an ignorant statement.

 

1. Draconian measures will limit the numbers, if the elderly and ill were in lockdown every winter, flu would kill less.

2. Cancer patients, transplant patients, people with all sorts of illness’ survive bad flu years, they won’t survive this.

3. So many people will be hospitalised that preventable deaths will happen. People who suffer heart attacks or strokes won’t get the same level of treatment they’d get in bad flu years, and minor operations being put off, will undoubtably lead to serious conditions that’ll eventually kill people.

 

 

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Sounds like that came from your soft arsed snapdragon

 

Thought you’d be more survival of the fittest sort. Most of who you listed would’ve thought you viewed as a tax burden

[Bananaman]

On a seperate note. Some of these footballers need a ****ing reality check. People losing their jobs and businesses, concerned for elderly or sick people's well-being and generally concerned about their long-term futures and these fools posting pictures and videos dancing and ****ing about whist 'in isolation'.. that's some bull****.

[Patrick Bateman]

On a seperate note. Some of these footballers need a ****ing reality check. People losing their jobs and businesses, concerned for elderly or sick people's well-being and generally concerned about their long-term futures and these fools posting pictures and videos dancing and ****ing about whist 'in isolation'.. that's some bull****.

 

This.

 

Sick of videos of them dancing around in massive houses. Have some f**king respect, applies to the thicko footballers and the media - there are plenty of self employed who are struggling and plenty of supermarket and NHS staff who are working extra hard.

 

Just makes these c*nts even less likeable if that were possible. I haven't missed football either, just shows I'm done with it and the stupid money these thickos earn.

[buctootim]

What an ignorant statement.

 

1. Draconian measures will limit the numbers, if the elderly and ill were in lockdown every winter, flu would kill less.

2. Cancer patients, transplant patients, people with all sorts of illness’ survive bad flu years, they won’t survive this.

3. So many people will be hospitalised that preventable deaths will happen. People who suffer heart attacks or strokes won’t get the same level of treatment they’d get in bad flu years, and minor operations being put off, will undoubtably lead to serious conditions that’ll eventually kill people.

 

Think about it. All isolation does is stop you catching it or passing it on whilst you're isolated. But this virus is highly infectious, an average on 6-7 new infections per contact. You'd need to reduce that number to below one per contact to control the spread. Once people come out of isolation the numbers of new infections will likely rebound. That is exactly what is predicted for China and Korea. All it takes is one person arriving on a plane. The virus isnt going away unless the whole world eradicates it - and that took 40 years for smallpox

 

The Imperial College epidemiology report, which informed UK policy talks about needing restricted movements for up to 18 months, a massive hit to the economy and no certainty of it being effective. Personally if I was organising the response I'd organise massive free street parties where all the healthy youngish people could get deliberately infected whilst the old and sick are kept at home for a couple of weeks. It would be over in a month.

 

Current policy will crash the economy, load up a massive amount of new debt and the numbers over the long term will likely end up about the same.

Edited 19 March, 2020 by buctootim

[Shandy_Top_89]

This.

 

Sick of videos of them dancing around in massive houses. Have some f**king respect, applies to the thicko footballers and the media - there are plenty of self employed who are struggling and plenty of supermarket and NHS staff who are working extra hard.

 

Just makes these c*nts even less likeable if that were possible. I haven't missed football either, just shows I'm done with it and the stupid money these thickos earn.

 

I thought Rooney's dramatic statement that Footballers had been used as guinea pigs was a bit ott, considering that the football authorities were probably the quickest to react and take action to isolate / protect their employees, while the rest of us on 0.1% of a wage are either unable to work from home, or our work places are still deciding what to do. Some being paid to run towards danger are on less than 20k (Care workers) and they complain far less.

 

Personally think he should have complimented them on swift action...

[whelk]

This.

 

Sick of videos of them dancing around in massive houses. Have some f**king respect, applies to the thicko footballers and the media - there are plenty of self employed who are struggling and plenty of supermarket and NHS staff who are working extra hard.

 

Just makes these c*nts even less likeable if that were possible. I haven't missed football either, just shows I'm done with it and the stupid money these thickos earn.

 

TBF you don’t have to watch them. I haven’t seen any.

 

Is hard though as very sombre times but people can still have fun. It’s social media that winds people up.

[hypochondriac]

TBF you don’t have to watch them. I haven’t seen any.

 

Is hard though as very sombre times but people can still have fun. It’s social media that winds people up.

This. Everything is depressing enough already, maybe these videos serve as a distraction for some and they can't exactly help living in a massive house, would it be preferable if they filmed themselves moping around a one bed flat?

[Saint Billy]

This. Everything is depressing enough already, maybe these videos serve as a distraction for some and they can't exactly help living in a massive house, would it be preferable if they filmed themselves moping around a one bed flat?

 

When the clip came on in the news it infuriated me. When people are dying and sick, jobs are being lost and the economy going down the pan the last thing I want to see is a couple of millionaires dancing up some steps. In adversity people holed up in apartments community singing on their balconies to raise moral now that is uplifting, or the old granny swearing and cussing the idiots panic buying I get.

[benjii]

What was funny was someone sending clips of the Italian balcony singers to Cheryl Cole and telling her they were signing "Fight for this love" and her believing it.

[hypochondriac]

When the clip came on in the news it infuriated me. When people are dying and sick, jobs are being lost and the economy going down the pan the last thing I want to see is a couple of millionaires dancing up some steps. In adversity people holed up in apartments community singing on their balconies to raise moral now that is uplifting, or the old granny swearing and cussing the idiots panic buying I get.

What an odd thing to get annoyed about. I couldn't give a sh*t if some millionaire footballer wants to lighten their predicament slightly by larking around in isolation. That's a bizarre sense of behaviour policing as if you'd be happier if they filmed themselves crying or looking scared. Good for them they can do what they like as far as I'm concerned as long as they aren't breaking self isolation or putting other people in danger.

[Lighthouse]

Not seen any footballers d*cking around but I've no idea why that would upset people. They can do what they want, if you choose to follow them on SM then that's up to you.

 

I'm much more annoyed about the panic buyers and those ignoring basic health advice. I was in Tesco last night and they'd stripped the shelves of dog food and fabric softner.

[Batman]

the most thing is that this season is finished so that liverpool don't lose out.

 

that is the most important issue to consider in all this.

[egg]

...

[egg]

Not seen any footballers d*cking around but I've no idea why that would upset people. They can do what they want, if you choose to follow them on SM then that's up to you.

 

I'm much more annoyed about the panic buyers and those ignoring basic health advice. I was in Tesco last night and they'd stripped the shelves of dog food and fabric softner.

 

Yep, muppets galore out there. Use Polish supermarkets as the Poles aren't divs and don't strip the shelves. And the doughnuts are good.