Relegation battle

[ludgershallsaint]

If you think a team on forty points with four games left would be under threat of relegation then there really is no hope whatsoever. And your wonderful scenario takes the safety tally up to, er, 49 points.

 

There's only so many idiots I can deal with on one thread.

 

Summed it up perfectly.

[OttawaSaint]

This thread is quality!

 

[hypochondriac]

Not sure how you work that out? If we only win 2 in our next 6, which is entirely possible, we'll be on 40 pts with 4 games left. If Brighton win 4 in their next 6, they'd also on 40 points. There could easily be 3 or 4 teams on 40 pts going into the last 4 games. Therefore we could be in a position where we need to beat Brighton and Bournemouth to guarantee safety.

 

Which 3 or 4 teams will be on 40 points with 4 games left? That's impossible. Taking just Bournemouth as an example, that would mean them winning every game apart from one against Liverpool, Palace, wolves, Newcastle, Man United and spurs. It would also mean that all the teams directly above saints would have to get to at least 40 points in those six games and that the majority of teams below us would have to more than double their current win ratio. Its not actually possible for Norwich to get to the 40 points even if they won every game. Which are the four opponents that Brighton will be beating to get to 40? You've got wolves, arsenal, Leicester, man United, Norwich and Liverpool to choose from.

Edited 1 March, 2020 by hypochondriac

[SKD]

I think the benchmark for complete safety will be anywhere between 36-40 points. I.e 1 win (or 3 draws) for us, 3 wins for everyone below us.

 

I think we’ll pick up 2 wins and a draw or 2 out of our last 10. For me, bottom 3 will be:

 

18. Norwich

19. Brighton

20. Villa

[SKD]

I think the benchmark for complete safety will be anywhere between 36-40 points. I.e 1 win (or 3 draws) for us, 3 wins for everyone below us.

 

I think we’ll pick up 2 wins and a draw or 2 out of our last 10. For me, bottom 3 will be:

 

18. Norwich

19. Brighton

20. Villa

Edit:

 

18. Brighton

19. NOrwich

[VectisSaint]

Which 3 or 4 teams will be on 40 points with 4 games left? That's impossible. Taking just Bournemouth as an example, that would mean them winning every game apart from one against Liverpool, Palace, wolves, Newcastle, Man United and spurs. It would also mean that all the teams directly above saints would have to get to at least 40 points in those six games and that the majority of teams below us would have to more than double their current win ratio. Its not actually possible for Norwich to get to the 40 points even if they won every game. Which are the four opponents that Brighton will be beating to get to 40? You've got wolves, arsenal, Leicester, man United, Norwich and Liverpool to choose from.

Some posters on here don't seem to understand that many of the teams below us have to play against other teams below us. That means both teams can't get 3 points. Basic stuff, incredible that it needs pointing out on what is supposed to be a football forum.

[woodsaint]

I’m highlighting our form you moron. Of course that is to be considered

 

Must have hit a nerve, resorting to name calling. You're just raging the saints are staying up

[Batman]

Some posters on here don't seem to understand that many of the teams below us have to play against other teams below us. That means both teams can't get 3 points. Basic stuff, incredible that it needs pointing out on what is supposed to be a football forum.

 

West Ham v Aston Villa, last game of the season.

Although, West Ham will be safe by then

[SaintTex]

i would love to win these next two matches and put this relegation thread to bed.

 

Or would that not end it for some?

[SaintTex]

Edit:

 

18. Brighton

19. NOrwich

 

I am thinking....

 

18. Bournemouth

19. Brighton

20. Norwich

 

Southampton being the only South Coast club in the top flight next year.

[OttawaSaint]

i would love to win these next two matches and put this relegation thread to bed.

 

Or would that not end it for some?

 

It wouldn’t. Do you not remember those still bricking themselves we’d lose 10-0 to City on the last day two seasons ago?

[Sidney Fudpucker the 3rd]

i would love to win these next two matches and put this relegation thread to bed.

 

Or would that not end it for some?

 

Me too, but when do Saints ever make anything easy for themselves? If there's a complicated way to stay up you can guarantee that we'll choose it.

[spyinthesky]

Have to agree with you.

 

Normally when I put an 'Insurance Bet' on us going down, the team picks up and I am happy to lose the money.

 

I stuck £25 on at 33/1 prior to the Villa game and I left the ground feeling vindicated.

 

I was hopeful that the 'spell' would carry on to the West Ham game, only be be disappointed.

 

We need, at the very least, to avoid defeat in the following games:

 

Newcastle (H).

Brighton (H).

Norwich (A).

Watford (A).

Bournemouth (A)..... Say 5 points from these games

 

Arsenal (H).

Man City (H).

Man Utd (A).

Everton (A).

Sheff Utd (H).

 

Say 2 points from these games

 

This would give us 41 points which should be OK but might mean relying on getting a result at home to Sheff Utd which wont be easy

Also if it went down to goal difference, it could well be that the Leicester home defeat might prove to be our undoing.

[JRM]

I am thinking....

 

18. Bournemouth

19. Brighton

20. Norwich

 

Southampton being the only South Coast club in the top flight next year.

 

If this does happen we’d need to urgently expand St Mary’s over the summer to cope with the increase in our Premier league catchment area.

[Bad Wolf]

I reckon the bottom three might just stay as it is.

[Saint_Tony]

Seems another case of lots of people expecting a huge upturn in form by 4-5 teams. There's a reason they are down there in the first place.

 

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[Super_Uwe]

We should be absolutely fine, unless we do what Swansea did 2 years ago and belly flop our way to the end of the season!

 

TBH I'd like to think the players still believe they can scrape into the final Europa League spot. Again, highly unlikely, but it's still not completely out of the question. Our next three games are entirely winnable; we generally do well at home to Newcastle, the away games at Watford and Norwich will be tough but they will be under huge pressure to beat us. That would give us 43 points with seven games to go.

 

A lot really depends on the players' motivation TBH, experience tells you teams plodding around in mid table often finish the season with a bit of a whimper. Let's hope that's not the case.

[SaintAndyB]

Beat Newcastle and I think we are just about there, 37 could probably prove to be enough, teams still have to play each other and other teams have some horrific run ins. A win at Norwich will confirm it and probably send them down.

[CB Fry]

Swansea got six points in their last ten games so even if we did that we're safe.

[Super_Uwe]

Swansea got six points in their last ten games so even if we did that we're safe.

 

Nice stat. In which case we'd need to do worse than "a Swansea" to go down. I can live with that then

[saints-cris]

Honestly just get the 4 points from our next two and we're there.

[Whitey Grandad]

Honestly just get the 4 points from our next two and we're there.

 

I would prefer six points from those two mainly because I'm going to both

[waylander]

I would prefer six points from those two mainly because I'm going to both

 

Possibly the last games people will be able to go to.

[GGalpin]

This website is decent for tracking relegation chances, and probably a good indicator as to why we're 50/1 to go down shortest price.

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/

 

Not great reading though for those wetting themselves with panic that a team who haven't won all year are suddenly going to win four of their next six, mind.

[SKD]

Fortunate set of results. Massive 6 pointer next week COYR

[Heisenberg]

Results definitely went our way.

 

That Europe charge is just brewing

[Pamplemousse]

I'll be concerned if we don't beat Norwich

[OttawaSaint]

[CB Fry]

Imagine my astonishment when other teams lower than us in the table also didn't win.

[SuperSAINT]

Fortunate set of results. Massive 6 pointer next week COYR

 

Great results for Villa, too.

[ALWAYS_SFC]

Imagine my astonishment when other teams lower than us in the table also didn't win.

 

Yeah but, they might do or something

[JRM]

Let's be honest, we deserve to be relegated for our pathetic home form.

[JRM]

Is that some kind of new club record for number of home defeats in a Premier league season?

[Micky]

Let's be honest, we deserve to be relegated for our pathetic home form.

What do we deserve for our away form?

 

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[SaintTex]

This website is decent for tracking relegation chances, and probably a good indicator as to why we're 50/1 to go down shortest price.

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/

 

Not great reading though for those wetting themselves with panic that a team who haven't won all year are suddenly going to win four of their next six, mind.

 

the problem is we were at 1% chance two weeks ago, now we are at a 4% chance

 

Not trending in the right direction.

[Sidney Fudpucker the 3rd]

Where do people think our next points are coming from? Not only do we seem to be incapable of beating some very average teams, we can even scrape a draw.

Face facts. We are ****ing ****.

 

People seem to think that sitting 7 points above the drop will be enough. Anyone who thinks that after watching our performances against Burnley, WHU and Newcastle is insane. If we can't beat teams like that then who will we beat?

[Turkish]

Where do people think our next points are coming from? Not only do we seem to be incapable of beating some very average teams, we can even scrape a draw.

Face facts. We are ****ing ****.

 

People seem to think that sitting 7 points above the drop will be enough. Anyone who thinks that after watching our performances against Burnley, WHU and Newcastle is insane. If we can't beat teams like that then who will we beat?

 

I’m sure I’ll be jumped on by certain people and accused of trolling again but apart from our little purple patch between mid November and January we’ve been sh1t this season. We’ll survive because we’ve got a good manager and we’ll manage to pick up another 4 or 5 points from our last 9 games but the reality is it’s the largely same players that have been sh1te under for years under Pellegrino and Hughes as well. Two permanent signings in three transfer windows is p1ss poor. Yet dare to mention it on here and you get told you’re trying to wind people up, trolling, being negative to the club etc.

[eelpie]

We won’t be relegated. However, with the run of games we have in April there’s a distinct possibility we’ll finish lower middle table and be closer to the relegation zone at the end of the season than we are now

 

No relagation? Not possible? Don't forget we had similar sentiments in 2007.

Beware overconfidence. It will be consistent hard graft that will keep us afloat.

We have the talent to survive and achieve two more wins. Play with determination like we often do in second halves - But no more sloppy beginnings Please.

[LuckyNumber7]

Where do people think our next points are coming from? Not only do we seem to be incapable of beating some very average teams, we can even scrape a draw.

Face facts. We are ****ing ****.

 

People seem to think that sitting 7 points above the drop will be enough. Anyone who thinks that after watching our performances against Burnley, WHU and Newcastle is insane. If we can't beat teams like that then who will we beat?

 

If we lose all of our remaining games then yes we'll go down. But we won't.

[IFHP]

I’m sure I’ll be jumped on by certain people and accused of trolling again but apart from our little purple patch between mid November and January we’ve been sh1t this season. We’ll survive because we’ve got a good manager and we’ll manage to pick up another 4 or 5 points from our last 9 games but the reality is it’s the largely same players that have been sh1te under for years under Pellegrino and Hughes as well. Two permanent signings in three transfer windows is p1ss poor. Yet dare to mention it on here and you get told you’re trying to wind people up, trolling, being negative to the club etc.

 

Have to agree with all of that. Our “blip” in form was that run of games between December and January.

 

We won’t go down this season , I said at the start of the season we would finish in the bottom 6 - we might just scrape finishing a bit higher thanks to that “blip” in form.

 

Next season however , we will be in a relegation scrap that we might not win.

 

We probably need 4 or 5 good players and that’s without selling any of our 1st 11 and I just can’t see us doing that.

 

It was baffling why we didn’t improve the squad in January.

[GarrettIvo]

the problem is we were at 1% chance two weeks ago, now we are at a 4% chance

 

Not trending in the right direction.

 

We were at 43% in early November.

 

I'd say were trending just fine to avoid the drop.

As for being a decent side, that's a totally different question.

[CB Fry]

No relagation? Not possible? Don't forget we had similar sentiments in 2007.

Beware overconfidence. It will be consistent hard graft that will keep us afloat.

We have the talent to survive and achieve two more wins. Play with determination like we often do in second halves - But no more sloppy beginnings Please.

 

Call me arrogant, call me over confident but I reckon that this season we will definitely finish on more points than we did in the Wigley/Saggy relegation season.

[Saints foreva]

I’m sure I’ll be jumped on by certain people and accused of trolling again but apart from our little purple patch between mid November and January we’ve been sh1t this season. We’ll survive because we’ve got a good manager and we’ll manage to pick up another 4 or 5 points from our last 9 games but the reality is it’s the largely same players that have been sh1te under for years under Pellegrino and Hughes as well. Two permanent signings in three transfer windows is p1ss poor. Yet dare to mention it on here and you get told you’re trying to wind people up, trolling, being negative to the club etc.

 

Bang on the money.

[JRM]

What do we deserve for our away form?

 

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I worded that badly.

Any team who loses as many home games as we have would normally be certainty for relegation, it's lucky we've had some good away results to offset that.

 

We've now been terrible at home under Puel, Pellegrino, Hughes and Hassenhuttl , ironically we still start home games as favourites with the bookies.

[beatlesaint]

I’m sure I’ll be jumped on by certain people and accused of trolling again but apart from our little purple patch between mid November and January we’ve been sh1t this season. We’ll survive because we’ve got a good manager and we’ll manage to pick up another 4 or 5 points from our last 9 games but the reality is it’s the largely same players that have been sh1te under for years under Pellegrino and Hughes as well. Two permanent signings in three transfer windows is p1ss poor. Yet dare to mention it on here and you get told you’re trying to wind people up, trolling, being negative to the club etc.

 

You can be accused of trolling all they like but the fact is what you’ve said here is 100% correct.

[whelk]

I worded that badly.

Any team who loses as many home games as we have would normally be certainty for relegation, it's lucky we've had some good away results to offset that.

 

We've now been terrible at home under Puel, Pellegrino, Hughes and Hassenhuttl , ironically we still start home games as favourites with the bookies.

 

Yeah incredible that bookie’s algorithms are still putting opposition at 4/1 for most games.

Said a few games back that would have made loads backing against Saints at home over years and think since then lost a further two games.

 

Just backing Burnley and Newcastle and be in profit whatever happens for rest of season

[Turkish]

Now lost 5 of our last 6, over half

Way through our run of winnable games which was meant to secure our premier league status and push us more into a top half finish with our squad that is absolutely fine. Lost 3 out of 4 of those Norwich and Watford to

Come before an, on paper, much tougher ring of games, Man City, Man United and Everton where we always lose. A few of us warned against complacency and said that our good run was more the same crap players playing at their maximum and were told how ridiculous we were being. Obviously we aren’t going down as I’m sure we can scrape

A few more points along with the others teams down there being sh1te too but highlights how much work needs to be done in the summer, which isn’t going to happen.

[Toadhall Saint]

Now lost 5 of our last 6, over half

Way through our run of winnable games which was meant to secure our premier league status and push us more into a top half finish with our squad that is absolutely fine. Lost 3 out of 4 of those Norwich and Watford to

Come before an, on paper, much tougher ring of games, Man City, Man United and Everton where we always lose. A few of us warned against complacency and said that our good run was more the same crap players playing at their maximum and were told how ridiculous we were being. Obviously we aren’t going down as I’m sure we can scrape

A few more points along with the others teams down there being sh1te too but highlights how much work needs to be done in the summer, which isn’t going to happen.

 

I’m not sure what point you are trying to make? We’ve lost some supposedly win able games? A few of you warned against complacency? Our players are crap? We’ll stay up? We’ll lose a few more this season?Work needs to be done on the squad? That work won’t happen?

 

No **** Sherlock

 

I normally look out for your sometimes amusing posts but you are starting to sound a bit Groundhog Day.

[Cabrone]

We'll survive but the vast majority of our season has been relegation form. I don't know where that miraculous run of wins around Xmas came from but it's saved us. The same problems still remain though and if not fixed will we be able to pull another rabbit out of the hat next season?

[Turkish]

I’m not sure what point you are trying to make? We’ve lost some supposedly win able games? A few of you warned against complacency? Our players are crap? We’ll stay up? We’ll lose a few more this season?Work needs to be done on the squad? That work won’t happen?

 

No **** Sherlock

 

I normally look out for your sometimes amusing posts but you are starting to sound a bit Groundhog Day.

 

It should have been put on the the next five games thread to be fair. Lots of complacent posts, lots of claims we could win every game, Tajjuk post is a good on, it appears he thought a win at West Ham was virtually guaranteed.