An analysis of RH and his decisions

[10i]

Of course all I write now is based on my opinion and not on a set of mathematical Analysis tools...

 

If you've read or heard what RH said before the game, you could exactly have called all of which he would do for today. You could have named every Player in the line up and even could have guessed the instructions they got.

And with this preparation for such a game, there is one thing should never happen - conceding...

It's been all about defense and fight and Determination. Winning ugly. but winning was not the primary goal in the end. It was to go for a clean sheet, a 0:0 and if it somehow happens nick a 1:0 win. But first of all it was about getting a clean sheet.

So he put 5 defenders on. He put on a midfield without any Goal threat. And he was hoping that maybe Ings or Redmond might somehow nick one - and it would have been okay if they hadn't.

Putting that mindset on might - if it works - start something. Koeman once did it at home vs. Watford, and he has been successful. Puel used it for his last months and Hughes tried to use it as well as Pellegrino and they did not succeed.

The difference for Koeman has of course been the Players available, Watford did have just one Chance back then in the whole game (we had None if I remember correctly).

It had already worked at Wolves, as we went lucky for the two Goals they scored with VAR and after a big mistake there was even the lead. So RH thought he could do it again. And sit and pray...

 

In my opinion, as a Manager you have to look at your Team, watch the strengths and weaknesses and build your Team around your strengths which should now hide your weknesses too. So, having a look, we do not have a single CD with real PL Quality, but we have some decent Players going Forward. Having Ings/Redmond/Djenepo(Adams)/Boufal coming at you, will bring many opponents on their back foot. But to take two Players out and add a CD and JWP, will get the Opponent on the front foot. So you have to defend more, with the defence, your weakness, under a constant threat. Today they got an easy first Goal, where Valery, Bednarek and Yoshida were just watchers and where the ever-poor Gunn made another poor save. And so it was game over. Without the red Card it may have been just three or four, but it in fact the game was over, till RH would have brought an attacking Sub for a defender. The whole Team knew they would never ever score with this lineup, especially with Leicester now able to sit back a bit more. It wasn't even part of the game plan.

 

So, why did RH do that? Leicester are high flying. a bit similar to Wolves and after Chelsea he thought he would have got a bit of a Formular to get something out of that Team. In my opinion every mediocre Analyst could have told him he is wrong (maybe Kitzbichler did and he ignored - or maybe he is not mediocre).

To be blunt, RH did it because he has lost faith in the Team. He has lost faith in them playing his System, playing his tactics of high pressing, putting pressure on the Opponent. So he changed everything and in fact it twice didn't work if you Analyse the games and the probabilities of how often you will take Points that way, but yes, in the first game we somehow got a Point against all odds...

So there are two things RH can do now: get his head up and regain his faith in all that he tried to build up over the last ten month, or he can go now.

And he has to question why he lost faith in his System, when for sure some of the Players are not of the required Quality, in which he did not lose his faith yet. Gunn replaced an England keeper just because he is younger - and he keeps on losing points for us. JWP is able to run 12km per game, but that's the only positive thing to say about him. You don't want him to be the one to defend an attackand you don't want him to be the one attacking with the ball - you wouldn't bring him on if you are leading and you wouldn't bring him if you are chasing the game in serach of a gae-changer... Hojbjerg Needs clearer instructions about his role and might have to take less risks in moving foward as with the four Players mentioned above he mostly won't be needed there, but the shielding of the defense has to be better. Maybe it's time to reintroduce Slattery as we are short in that Position.

As the CDs all are quite poor, Vestergaard is the best of them with using the ball, Playing some quite good passes out of the defense. He though makes so many mistakes defensively. Bednareks mistakes get more and more too. And he is quite poor at passing... Danso is rash and sometimes panicking - I can see why he is not starting, he'd be on the verge of a red Card within 20 minutes. Maybe just try Klarer at CD. It can't be worse, you'd say...

And if you really put 4 attacking players on the FB might have to Play more defense-minded too. And make better decisions when to go and when to stay. RH tried to do that by playing Danso there,who naturally doesn't join attacks too often, but this of coure should be working through instructing you regular FBs as well...

 

You'll never get too much out of games like against Chelsea, no matter which tactics, but till now we only got results when we tried to score ourselves, when we were positive. Like against Liverpool after bringing on the Subs. Brighton when Djenepo came on. Even at Man.U. we had three attacking Players on...

 

I'm hoping for RH to regain his faith, as I think if he will not get enough out of These Players, I doubt that anyone else will...