The all new relegation priced thread 2019 (it gets earlier every year!).

[Saint_clark]

Regret not topping up now.

I never put that £200 on relegation.

Considering putting it on finishing bottom though.

 

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

[tisspahars]

Prices still settling down post Everton but looks like it will be around 7/4. So even now rated a fair bit more likely to stay up than not, which will utterly blow a fair few minds on here I would imagine.

[Heisenberg]

8/1

 

6/1

 

5/1

 

4/1

 

9/4

 

7/4

 

 

This isn't going well. Stick to horses

[tisspahars]

Out a fraction to 15/8 post Arsenal match.

[tisspahars]

Finally back at base having taken in my first game of the season on Saturday (you're all welcome) and the win sees us out to 5/2 to go down.

[tisspahars]

Prices still settling after the Norwich game, but looks like we'll be out to around 4/1.

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

Prices still settling after the Norwich game, but looks like we'll be out to around 4/1.

 

I am afraid to say - get your money on. It will cushion the blow!

[Heisenberg]

Said we'd likely see improvements with the run of fixtures. If it returns to 6s I'll top up again.

 

The good news is that Watford now look cut off and Norwich have a lot to makeup.

 

Our two wins has dragged a number of other clubs into the mix. Only 4 points now serperating 18th and 11th place

 

Our goal difference needs to improve.

[vince]

I appreciate this article is a few weeks old now, but it does highlight how poor a start Everton and West Ham had, given their opposition and give an indication of the relative strength of the remaining games they have:

 

https://www.planetfootball.com/quick-reads/premier-league-clubs-ranked-by-the-difficulty-of-their-opponents-so-far/

 

It would suggest that Brighton and Bournemouth also have the 3rd and 4th hardest set of remaining fixtures.

[Dark Munster]

We've had the hardest start, but paradoxically we don't have the easiest remaining fixtures. That puzzled me for a moment, then I realised we don't play against ourselves.

[tisspahars]

Back in to 3/1 after the Newcastle game - interestingly Bournemouth are now shorter to go down than we are....

[Wurzel]

interestingly Bournemouth are now shorter to go down than we are....

 

Sounds right to me.

[HarvSFC]

This time last year we were second from bottom and on nine points...

[sadoldgit]

We've had the hardest start, but paradoxically we don't have the easiest remaining fixtures. That puzzled me for a moment, then I realised we don't play against ourselves.

 

If we did it would be the first time in history that both teams lost 2-1 to a 96th minute goal.

[Charlie Wayman]

Saints won't go down, that privilege is reserved for Bournemouth, Burnley & Watford. Saints may be flawed but they are not a poor side. Those other three teams are poor sides playing one dimensional hoofball most of the time. We are a big team they are not. It's not meant to be.

[tisspahars]

2/1 after the West Ham defeat.

[tisspahars]

Out to 4/1 following the win at Villa.

[tisspahars]

A shade above 6/1 post Chelsea - the biggest price we have been since mid-September.

[SaintBobby]

Been a good run, except that abysmal West Ham result, but i do think 6/1 is pretty attarctive odds objectively. I'd say we're about 20-25% to still get relegated.

[Heisenberg]

I always place insurance bets as its money I'm happy to lose, but covers worst case scenarios

 

So backed us for relegation although i would be surprised if we were (poorer sides than us IMHO)

 

Backed Liverpool again for the title and CL

 

+ Pompey promotion

 

Insurance bets works for me and has made me a lot last few seasons

 

2 out of 3 would be great

[Dark Munster]

A shade above 6/1 post Chelsea - the biggest price we have been since mid-September.

So same odds as a game of Russian roulette. Which is appropriate because if we go down we're ****ed.

[SaintBobby]

So same odds as a game of Russian roulette. Which is appropriate because if we go down we're ****ed.

 

Potentially a little less final than losing at Russian roulette tbh, but almost certainly a longer, more drawn out, painful and tortous experience.

[OldNick]

2 out of 3 would be great

As you are a decent sort, how about posting your bets before the games so that others on here can take advantage and earn from your skill. I can give you the lottery results on a sunday.

Start a thread Heisenbergs betting slips and we can all see how great you are

[Heisenberg]

As you are a decent sort, how about posting your bets before the games so that others on here can take advantage and earn from your skill. I can give you the lottery results on a sunday.

Start a thread Heisenbergs betting slips and we can all see how great you are

 

https://www.saintsweb.co.uk/showthread.php?61578-Saints-vs-Palace-Build-up&p=2787533#post2787533

[Sheaf Saint]

Out to 9/1 now on Bet365.

 

I'm expecting that to shorten a bit after our next two games though.

[tisspahars]

9/1 also the price on Betfair following the Tottenham win. Astonishing value really for a side without one player up to Premier League standard and a manager clearly out of his depth, who are likely to take Derby's record for the lowest points tally ever.

[SaintBobby]

Out to 9/1 now on Bet365.

 

I'm expecting that to shorten a bit after our next two games though.

 

Presumbaly the likely results of the upcomign couple of games are "priced in" though?

 

I thought 6/1 was good odds, think you can get as high as 10/1 now. Quite a turnaround from 7/4 a few weeks back.

[Heisenberg]

With Villa cut adrift and Norwich as good as down we should be looking at top 5 (MLG) and no longer discussing relegation.

[Saint_Tony]

We could get dragged back in to it, but 5 wins should be doable. Worth £20 quid though at that price.

 

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk

[Picard]

I'm not an expert on betting but it seems to me the odds of relegation are inversely related to our position in the league.

[Sheaf Saint]

I'm not an expert on betting but it seems to me the odds of relegation are inversely related to our position in the league.

 

There is a close correlation, but not a precise one. There are other factors such as recent/current form, remaining fixtures etc...

 

Brighton, for instance, are currently a point and two places below us, but are at longer odds (10/1) than we are.

[SaintBobby]

There is a close correlation, but not a precise one. There are other factors such as recent/current form, remaining fixtures etc...

 

Brighton, for instance, are currently a point and two places below us, but are at longer odds (10/1) than we are.

 

Well, most obviously on the points gap to 18th.

 

I mean, if you're in 17th place but 15 points clear of the team in 18th, you're pretty damned safe.

 

If you're in 14th place and just a couple of points above the drop zone, then a bit less so.

[Sheaf Saint]

Well, most obviously on the points gap to 18th.

 

I mean, if you're in 17th place but 15 points clear of the team in 18th, you're pretty damned safe.

 

If you're in 14th place and just a couple of points above the drop zone, then a bit less so.

 

Yeah, so it's a little odd that we have a bigger points gap to the drop zone than Brighton, yet they are at longer odds than us to go down.

[Picard]

There is a close correlation, but not a precise one. There are other factors such as recent/current form, remaining fixtures etc...

 

Brighton, for instance, are currently a point and two places below us, but are at longer odds (10/1) than we are.

 

Agreed with your analysis but I was just thinking about Saints' position and odds:thumbup:

[CB Fry]

 

I mean, if you're in 17th place but 15 points clear of the team in 18th, you're pretty damned safe.

 

Ah, the old 15 points between 17th and 18th scenario. It's almost a cliche how often that happens.

[SaintBobby]

Ah, the old 15 points between 17th and 18th scenario. It's almost a cliche how often that happens.

 

I think you can pick up the gist. It's an illustration that points matter, not just places. The two are broadly connected, but this season has a pretty crunched up bottom half of the table and only Norwich really cut adrift.

 

I'd say 17th and 5 points clear is ikely to be longer odds than 13th and 3 points clear.

[SaintBobby]

Yeah, so it's a little odd that we have a bigger points gap to the drop zone than Brighton, yet they are at longer odds than us to go down.

 

Easier fixtures? (although we have played Chelsea and Spurs twice, which are pretty tough ones)

 

More home games than aways? (not that Saints seem to much benefit from home advantage!)

[SaintBobby]

Relegation now available at 25/1, to finish bottom now 250/1.

 

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation

 

For the optimists, it's now around 11/8 for us to finish in the top 10

 

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-10-finish

 

A top six finish is as tight as 14/1 with some bookies

 

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-6-finish

[Lighthouse]

Yeah, so it's a little odd that we have a bigger points gap to the drop zone than Brighton, yet they are at longer odds than us to go down.

 

Surely that's just bookies reflecting the fact that a lot more money will already have been lumped on Saints going down. All clever algorithms to make sure they cash in regardless of who goes down.

[CB Fry]

There would have to be a Swansea level of capitulation for us to be relegated now. This run of form has changed everything.

 

We've got 16 games to tot up the ten or twelve points required, whereas the bottom clubs are looking at around double that in the same time.

 

I can't see us ending up as one of the three worst teams in the division now. The bottom four look like the contenders and it might not change much from here.

 

I'm looking up now, not down.

[Tamesaint]

Said we'd likely see improvements with the run of fixtures. If it returns to 6s I'll top up again.

 

 

 

 

With odds of 25/1 now available anyone who topped up at 6/1 must be pig sick.

 

Heisenberg... the bookies friend!!

[OttawaSaint]

With odds of 25/1 now available anyone who topped up at 6/1 must be pig sick.

 

Heisenberg... the bookies friend!!

 

But he said at the time we were safe/doomed*

 

*depends where you look...

[woodsaint]

There would have to be a Swansea level of capitulation for us to be relegated now. This run of form has changed everything.

 

We've got 16 games to tot up the ten or twelve points required, whereas the bottom clubs are looking at around double that in the same time.

 

I can't see us ending up as one of the three worst teams in the division now. The bottom four look like the contenders and it might not change much from here.

 

I'm looking up now, not down.

 

Not to mention that the only three teams we have played twice are Chelsea, Spurs and Leicester.

[OttawaSaint]

This thread could do with some Dalek2003...

 

...what happened to him? Did he retire on all those winnings he got for predicting Saints’ finishing position for 16 years in a row?

[SaintBobby]

There would have to be a Swansea level of capitulation for us to be relegated now. This run of form has changed everything.

 

We've got 16 games to tot up the ten or twelve points required, whereas the bottom clubs are looking at around double that in the same time.

 

I can't see us ending up as one of the three worst teams in the division now. The bottom four look like the contenders and it might not change much from here.

 

I'm looking up now, not down.

 

I think you're right. Looks like there will be very little to split, say, 8th - 15th, but we should be alright from here.

[qwertyell]

Norwich are cut adrift now - at least in terms of catching us - but 19th to 8th will be looking over their shoulders for at least the next few months. It's a tight one this season - no-one is truly awful.

 

I think it might be one of those rare years where someone drops with 40 points.

 

I'll certainly feel more secure if we can get three more wins asap. 37 with 7-8 games left would allow us to cruise in, picking up the odd points here and there.

 

Sent from my F3311 using Tapatalk

[tajjuk]

Not to mention that the only three teams we have played twice are Chelsea, Spurs and Leicester.

 

Those three games pretty much encapsulate our turn around in fortunes, first 3 times we played them we lost 4-1, 2-1 to 10 men for most of the game and of course 9-0, then the next 3 games we win all 3, 2 of which were away.

 

I'd reckon European football is more likely (but still a long shot) than relegation now. Especially as I am presuming our run in of fixtures will match our November/December run of games, so will see loads of games against bottom half teams.

Edited 12 January, 2020 by tajjuk

[kyle04]

20th Norwich - adrift and looking out of their depth

19th Bournemouth - in freefall and injury crisis

 

18th any one from 6, probably Villa

[tisspahars]

20/1 on Betfair following the win at Leicester.

[Topcat]

Bournemouth just not battling to stay up. At home vs Watford and only 1 shot on target whereas Watford have 6. Bournemouth have 3 fouls and Watford 13! No heart.