Theresa May and the death of the Tory Party

[hypochondriac]

A generally election where both main parties are led by unelectable cretins and no other party represents a credible alternative in a FPtP system most likely resulting in another weak goverment.

 

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Yes most likely. Will probably lead to a corbyn minority government and I'm starting to think that maybe we need that dose of bitter medicine to get that particularly insidious brand of socialism out of our system for a few generations. Let's hope the country isn't destroyed too much in 4 years.

[hypochondriac]

Yes. As evidenced from his time leading London.

 

As evidence by getting 140 mps on board already.

Boris claims we will be leaving 31st of October deal or no deal. How do you think he will be able to achieve that? Whether you want to leave or not, its blindingly obvious that he won't be able to do that and it doesn't matter how much of a leader he is.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

Yes most likely. Will probably lead to a corbyn minority government and I'm starting to think that maybe we need that dose of bitter medicine to get that particularly insidious brand of socialism out of our system for a few generations. Let's hope the country isn't destroyed too much in 4 years.

 

He won't get any of his mad **** through though. Be stopped by the SNP and Lib Dems, and if not them, the HoL.

[hypochondriac]

He won't get any of his mad **** through though. Be stopped by the SNP and Lib Dems, and if not them, the HoL.

I think he will be able to do some damage but hopefully not enough. Will definitely be concerning if there are any aggressive actions by anyone in the middle East or Russia over that time though. They will be fully aware of our impotence with a Marxist in number 10.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

Boris claims we will be leaving 31st of October deal or no deal. How do you think he will be able to achieve that? Whether you want to leave or not, its blindingly obvious that he won't be able to do that and it doesn't matter how much of a leader he is.

 

Well, no, he didn't really the other day - he's gone back on that as a hard line. It's his aim, but he wouldn't guarantee it.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

I think he will be able to do some damage but hopefully not enough. Will definitely be concerning if there are any aggressive actions by anyone in the middle East or Russia over that time though. They will be fully aware of our impotence with a Marxist in number 10.

 

TBH, I'd quite welcome us sitting back and doing naff all for once.

[Lord Duckhunter]

He won't get any of his mad **** through though. Be stopped by the SNP and Lib Dems, and if not them, the HoL.

 

And his own MP’s.

 

You think this Brexit stuff is a mess, just watch Corbyn trying to get half his crazy **** past The Civil Service, Parliament and as you say The Lords. Never underestimate the establishment’s ability to deliver exactly what they want. They’ve got a taste of over riding the masses, they’ll not give that up easily.

 

 

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[Window Cleaner]

He looks weird. Fullstop.

 

Like some of Bertie Wooster's chums in the illustrations in those books.

[hypochondriac]

TBH, I'd quite welcome us sitting back and doing naff all for once.

That's not the damaging bit, it's people knowing we will not do anything under any circumstances.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

That's not the damaging bit, it's people knowing we will not do anything under any circumstances.

 

He'd be deposed, either from within, or from a cross party vote of confidence.

 

Don't forget, PMs are essentially hamstrung in everything they do.

[hypochondriac]

Well, no, he didn't really the other day - he's gone back on that as a hard line. It's his aim, but he wouldn't guarantee it.

Well OK then let's imagine he decides not to take us out in October. All that does is punt the can down the road again. I can imagine that once it gets to October the EU will say that we can have another extension but only if we agree to another referendum. Parliament in its current form won't allow no deal so that will be our only choice other than a general election.

[hypochondriac]

He'd be deposed, either from within, or from a cross party vote of confidence.

 

Don't forget, PMs are essentially hamstrung in everything they do.

You have more confidence than me. If the last few years have taught us nothing, it's that when push comes to shove the vast majority have no principles they just want to hold onto their powerful positions.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

Well OK then let's imagine he decides not to take us out in October. All that does is punt the can down the road again. I can imagine that once it gets to October the EU will say that we can have another extension but only if we agree to another referendum. Parliament in its current form won't allow no deal so that will be our only choice other than a general election.

 

Yep, that's how I see it going.

 

If he threatens to take us out with no deal, there will be a GE and we'll see a Corbyn led SNP/Lib Dem minority gov. Said it a couple of weeks ago.

 

BJ will not be PM for long.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

You have more confidence than me. If the last few years have taught us nothing, it's that when push comes to shove the vast majority have no principles they just want to hold onto their powerful positions.

 

Yep, but he doesn't have enough support, from inside or outside the party.

[Nolan]

Boris claims we will be leaving 31st of October deal or no deal. How do you think he will be able to achieve that? Whether you want to leave or not, its blindingly obvious that he won't be able to do that and it doesn't matter how much of a leader he is.

That's right, but he did talk about an FTA, rather than Mays absolute fudge. Which is a start towards what we actually voted for.

[Tamesaint]

Yes. As evidenced from his time leading London.

 

 

If you swallow his propaganda he was a good leader of London.

 

If you look at the facts , like the money spent on a "Boris" bridge (whilst Hammersmith bridge crumbled) and the water cannons farce there is little evidence that he would make an effective leader.

 

This country needs a leader not a clown.

[hypochondriac]

That's right, but he did talk about an FTA, rather than Mays absolute fudge. Which is a start towards what we actually voted for.

But he won't have any time to negotiate anything of that nature.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

That's right, but he did talk about an FTA, rather than Mays absolute fudge. Which is a start towards what we actually voted for.

 

FTA can only be agreed after we leave, and if we leave with No Deal, a FTA will not be on the cards from the EU's side until we agree to the WA.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

That's right, but he did talk about an FTA, rather than Mays absolute fudge. Which is a start towards what we actually voted for.

 

Duplicate.

[Whitey Grandad]

Boris claims we will be leaving 31st of October deal or no deal. How do you think he will be able to achieve that? Whether you want to leave or not, its blindingly obvious that he won't be able to do that and it doesn't matter how much of a leader he is.

He doesn't have to do anything to get a no-deal. It is the default event and the only things that can stop it is ratifying the WA, revocation or him asking for an extension and the latter two are down to him.

 

A General Election might be forced on him but otherwise he could sit on his hands. At least that might keep them out of mischief.

[hypochondriac]

He doesn't have to do anything to get a no-deal. It is the default event and the only things that can stop it is ratifying the WA, revocation or him asking for an extension and the latter two are down to him.

 

A General Election might be forced on him but otherwise he could sit on his hands. At least that might keep them out of mischief.

If he decides to sit on his hands then Parliament will just do what they did to May and compel him to ask for an extension.

[shurlock]

FTA can only be agreed after we leave, and if we leave with No Deal, a FTA will not be on the cards from the EU's side until we agree to the WA.

 

Seriously what planet do Brexiters live on.

[Whitey Grandad]

That's right, but he did talk about an FTA, rather than Mays absolute fudge. Which is a start towards what we actually voted for.

You voted for the fudge. All you did was put a tick in a box, you didn't specify what you wanted.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

Seriously what planet do Brexiters live on.

 

I don't know how many times I have laboured this point on this thread (I must have written about it around 10 - 15 times), yet the Brexiteers are not understanding what this part of the Brexit process is.

 

The Withdrawal Agreement is a Free Trade Agreement. It is in place until a new trade agreement, most probably continuing to be FTA, is in place. If the UK leaves with no deal, we go onto WTO rules. If we decide not to pay the divorce bill, we will not get an FTA with the EU.

[shurlock]

If he decides to sit on his hands then Parliament will just do what they did to May and compel him to ask for an extension.

 

 

Not as straightforward this time since Parliament was able to use the WA to introduce amendments that blocked no deal; if the next PM doesn’t bring anything back to Parliament to vote on, MPs won’t have the opportunity to do the same. The situation will require additional creativity and ingenuity from Bercow which is highly likely in light of his statements at Brookings.

Edited 20 June, 2019 by shurlock

[shurlock]

I don't know how many times I have laboured this point on this thread (I must have written about it around 10 - 15 times), yet the Brexiteers are not understanding what this part of the Brexit process is.

 

The Withdrawal Agreement is a Free Trade Agreement. It is in place until a new trade agreement, most probably continuing to be FTA, is in place. If the UK leaves with no deal, we go onto WTO rules. If we decide not to pay the divorce bill, we will not get an FTA with the EU.

 

Note the WA isn’t a FTA.

[benjii]

https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/evening-standard-comment-we-back-boris-as-the-pm-to-turn-britain-around-a4171816.html

 

Not exactly a ringing endorsement but a pragmatic argument for Boris.

[buctootim]

Yes most likely. Will probably lead to a corbyn minority government and I'm starting to think that maybe we need that dose of bitter medicine to get that particularly insidious brand of socialism out of our system for a few generations. Let's hope the country isn't destroyed too much in 4 years.

 

No Government can do much in 5 years apart from tinker with tax rates. You have to have policy discussions, then publish a green paper, a white paper and then have the legislation passed. Once passed the legislation can never be effective immediately as there needs to be an implementation period. That lot takes you beyond the next election. Its the second term in Government when things get done and Corbyn wouldnt last that long.

[benjii]

Yep, that's how I see it going.

 

If he threatens to take us out with no deal, there will be a GE and we'll see a Corbyn led SNP/Lib Dem minority gov. Said it a couple of weeks ago.

 

BJ will not be PM for long.

 

He won't actually do anything that he thinks will prejudice his position as PM. If he's nothing, he's an opportunist, and he's always wanted to be PM.

 

He won't put principles or promises in the way of self-preservation.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

Note the WA isn’t a FTA.

 

We continue to trade freely with the EU during the transition period do we not? We continue how we trade now.

[shurlock]

https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/evening-standard-comment-we-back-boris-as-the-pm-to-turn-britain-around-a4171816.html

 

Not exactly a ringing endorsement but a pragmatic argument for Boris.

 

Something will have to give - and one side will be bitterly disappointed. David Davis was on the radio early, all giddy and excited, that Johnson had promised him, eyeball to eyeball, man to man, that the UK will be leaving on October 31 “no ifs, no buts”.

[hypochondriac]

Not as straightforward this time since Parliament was able to use the WA to introduce amendments that blocked no deal; if the next PM doesn’t bring anything back to Parliament to vote on, MPs won’t have the opportunity to do the same. The situation will require additional creativity and ingenuity from Bercow which is highly likely in light of his statements at Brookings.

Well yes but he will wangle something to prevent it.

[shurlock]

We continue to trade freely with the EU during the transition period do we not? We continue how we trade now.

 

Thats a transitional arrangement as part of the WA. It’s not technically a FTA.

[buctootim]

What do people this Boris would actually do about Brexit as PM?

 

Seems to me he would deliver Brexit on or near October 31st so he gets the credit as a man of his word and gets the right onside. But nothing much would change within the transitional period and he would use that time to pursue some kind of close alignment aka Norway plus a time extension to c2022.

 

Who knows though really. Im not sure anybody really knows whats in his mind or if he has a plan, including him.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

Thats a transitional arrangement as part of the WA. It’s not technically a FTA.

 

Shurlock, I'm trying to explain it in a way the Brexiteers will understand it. It's not technically an FTA, but we benefit from free trade for the transition period.

[shurlock]

What do people this Boris would actually do about Brexit as PM?

 

Seems to me he would deliver Brexit on or near October 31st so he gets the credit as a man of his word and gets the right onside. But nothing much would change within the implementation period and he would use that time to pursue some kind of close alignment aka Norway plus a time extension.

 

Who knows though really. Im not sure anybody really knows whats in his mind or if he has a plan, including him.

 

Deliver? If he’s unable to pass May’s deal or a variant that Labour supports, then the only way of delivering Brexit will be to crash out on October 31 in which case there will be no implementation period. Of course Parliament will block this which will set up the mother of constitutional crises. Johnson simply cannot square the extreme promises he’s made and is hoping for a miracle, namely that the EU will somehow blink. Rory Stewart’s diagnosis of the problem is essentially correct.

[sadoldgit]

Yes most likely. Will probably lead to a corbyn minority government and I'm starting to think that maybe we need that dose of bitter medicine to get that particularly insidious brand of socialism out of our system for a few generations. Let's hope the country isn't destroyed too much in 4 years.

 

And the Tory years of austerity have not been bitter medicine? You think that socialism is dangerous yet your beloved right wing politics have royally screwed this country. The only good thing about what is happening right now is that it might **** the Tories for years.

[buctootim]

Deliver? If he’s unable to pass May’s deal or a variant that Labour supports, then the only way of delivering Brexit will be to crash out on October 31 in which case there will be no implementation period. Of course Parliament will block this which will set up the mother of constitutional crises. Johnson simply cannot square the extreme promises he’s made and is hoping for a miracle, namely that the EU will somehow blink. Rory Stewart’s diagnosis of the problem is essentially correct.

 

Ha good point! I'd forgotten about that technical detail

[hypochondriac]

And the Tory years of austerity have not been bitter medicine? You think that socialism is dangerous yet your beloved right wing politics have royally screwed this country. The only good thing about what is happening right now is that it might **** the Tories for years.

I thought you had me on ignore pal? You couldn't stay away.

[Lord Duckhunter]

I don't know how many times I have laboured this point on this thread (I must have written about it around 10 - 15 times), yet the Brexiteers are not understanding what this part of the Brexit process is.

 

The Withdrawal Agreement is a Free Trade Agreement.

 

Complete and utter nonsense.

 

It’s a transition period which we pay for. Instead of posting this nonsense “10-15 times” I suggest your time would be better spent looking up other FTA’s that are in place around the world.

 

 

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[Unbelievable Jeff]

Complete and utter nonsense.

 

It’s a transition period which we pay for. Instead of posting this nonsense “10-15 times” I suggest your time would be better spent looking up other FTA’s that are in place around the world.

 

 

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No, what I have written 10-15 times is the fact that we cannot currently negotiate an FTA before we have left the EU.

 

Just out of interest, how could you not class the transition period as an FTA? It is an agreement of how we're going to trade freely with the EU during a transition period. It is, for all intents and purposes, a FTA. How is it not?

[Cabbage_Face]

How can parliament block something that is EU law?

[Lord Duckhunter]

Gove overtakes Hunt. Getting tasty now. Gove V Boris is the right choice and one that should of been put to the members prior to May.

 

 

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[Unbelievable Jeff]

Gove overtakes Hunt. Getting tasty now. Gove V Boris is the right choice and one that should of been put to the members prior to May.

 

 

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Gove would do well to hold out an olive branch to Hunt and run together. It's the only way to challenge Boris.

[Wes Tender]

Gove would do well to hold out an olive branch to Hunt and run together. It's the only way to challenge Boris.

 

I don't think that you quite understand how this all works.

[Wes Tender]

No, what I have written 10-15 times is the fact that we cannot currently negotiate an FTA before we have left the EU.

 

Just out of interest, how could you not class the transition period as an FTA? It is an agreement of how we're going to trade freely with the EU during a transition period. It is, for all intents and purposes, a FTA. How is it not?

 

Because it is not. The clue is in the name. It is a transition period until we agree a FTA or leave without one.

[Lord Duckhunter]

Gove would do well to hold out an olive branch to Hunt and run together. It's the only way to challenge Boris.

 

There’s a big decision for Hammond, Rudd, Gauke, Clarke and other Remainiacs. Do they back Hunt & watch Boris annihilate him with the members, or do they swing behind Gove and hope he exposes Boris during the hustings.

 

 

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[Unbelievable Jeff]

Because it is not. The clue is in the name. It is a transition period until we agree a FTA or leave without one.

 

If we are in the transition period, we have already left?

Edited 20 June, 2019 by Unbelievable Jeff

[Unbelievable Jeff]

I don't think that you quite understand how this all works.

 

In what way - why can this not happen? Explain it to me.

Edited 20 June, 2019 by Unbelievable Jeff

[Unbelievable Jeff]

Because it is not. The clue is in the name. It is a transition period until we agree a FTA or leave without one.

 

I am also not saying it is one, I am saying that essentially it is one, but not in name. Explain to me what difference is between the two.