The Run In Thread

[ErwinK1961]

even with a game in hand, i reckon Brighton is sweating it the most among the non-Cardiff teams.

 

Bournemouth (H), Cardiff (H), Wolves (A), Tottenham (A), Newcastle (H), Arsenal (A), Man City (H)

 

It is not such a far fetched scenario that Brighton could find themselves in 18 place by the end of the day Tuesday.

 

That would be relying on Bournemouth to get something at Brighton, which based on their currently mentality, has next to no chance of happening.

 

No doubt they'll be putting everything into their biggest game of the season on 27th April

[the saint in winchester]

I think wins against BOU/HUD, a draw against WOL/WHU and a loss at NEW/WAT would be a reasonable prediction. 8 points which sees Cardiff needing 14.

 

Similar. On the 'final 10 games planner' I had us down for wins against Bournemouth and Hudds, a draw against Wolves, so another 7 points, and that will get us to the 40 mark. Cardiff won't get near that.

[Didcot Saint]

I think everyone is getting far too complacent about what might happen. Cardiff would have probably beaten Chelsea if it wasn’t for the shocking refereeing decisions. We aren’t safe yet by any manner of means. Bombey will be desperate to beat us, Huddersfield will want to go out with a bang, Newcastle could get mathematically safe if they beat us, Watford could guarantee 7th, it’s not over yet.

[Turkish]

I think everyone is getting far too complacent about what might happen. Cardiff would have probably beaten Chelsea if it wasn’t for the shocking refereeing decisions. We aren’t safe yet by any manner of means. Bombey will be desperate to beat us, Huddersfield will want to go out with a bang, Newcastle could get mathematically safe if they beat us, Watford could guarantee 7th, it’s not over yet.

 

Who are bombey? Come on pal, we couldn’t have wished for a better run in. with Newcastle win today it is literally every game against mid table teams with nothing to play for and if we really need it a home game on the last day against one of the worst top flight teams in history with the worst away form in the division. Cardiff on the other had have 6 games left, 2 away against direct relegation rivals, Liverpool home and man united away and Fulham and palace. Realistically 9 points form those six would be a great performance from them. If we can’t win two of our next six we don’t deserve to stay up.

[hypochondriac]

Who are bombey? Come on pal, we couldn’t have wished for a better run in. with Newcastle win today it is literally every game against mid table teams with nothing to play for and if we really need it a home game on the last day against one of the worst top flight teams in history with the worst away form in the division. Cardiff on the other had have 6 games left, 2 away against direct relegation rivals, Liverpool home and man united away and Fulham and palace. Realistically 9 points form those six would be a great performance from them. If we can’t win two of our next six we don’t deserve to stay up.

And in the scenario you just outlined we would only need 4 points...

[whelk]

Who are bombey? Come on pal, we couldn’t have wished for a better run in. with Newcastle win today it is literally every game against mid table teams with nothing to play for and if we really need it a home game on the last day against one of the worst top flight teams in history with the worst away form in the division. Cardiff on the other had have 6 games left, 2 away against direct relegation rivals, Liverpool home and man united away and Fulham and palace. Realistically 9 points form those six would be a great performance from them. If we can’t win two of our next six we don’t deserve to stay up.

 

Huddersfield will be like a wounded tiger fighting for their lives. Hopefully we can pack the defence and just pray they have one of those days and we hold on for nil nil. I fear that won’t be enough though as expect we may have to score bucket loads to overturn Cardiff’s goal difference. #doomed #66to1togodown #dontgoshoppingimDidcotboundtobeanISISattack

[Give it to Ron]

I think everyone is getting far too complacent about what might happen. Cardiff would have probably beaten Chelsea if it wasn’t for the shocking refereeing decisions. We aren’t safe yet by any manner of means. Bombey will be desperate to beat us, Huddersfield will want to go out with a bang, Newcastle could get mathematically safe if they beat us, Watford could guarantee 7th, it’s not over yet.

 

Paddy Power 50/1 put on a tenner pays for next season ticket.

 

 

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[Batman]

Surely the combination of a saints defeat and Cardiff win will not happen today

 

If Cardiff lose and we don't. It will be all over bar the singing

[CB Fry]

Surely the combination of a saints defeat and Cardiff win will not happen today

 

If Cardiff lose and we don't. It will be all over bar the singing

Cardiff win and Saints loss would be meltdown central on here.

 

It's not impossible, we are exceptionally good at following up one of our "didn't they do well" noble defeats against a top 6 club with an atrocious display in a winnable game.

 

So we could lose. But we'll still stay up.

[Badger]

Surely the combination of a saints defeat and Cardiff win will not happen today

 

If Cardiff lose and we don't. It will be all over bar the singing

 

Also hope AFCB beat Brighton to keep them in the mix a bit longer.

[Didcot Saint]

Just me getting the jitters, just want this season done and dusted!

[Batman]

SAINTS

 

April 20 - Newcastle v Southampton

April 23 - Watford v Southampton

April 27 - Southampton v Bournemouth

May 04 - West Ham United v Southampton

May 12 - Southampton v Huddersfield

 

 

BRIGHTON

 

April 16 - Brighton & Hove Albion FC v Cardiff City

April 30 - Wolverhampton Wanderers v Brighton & Hove Albion FC

April 27 - Brighton & Hove Albion FC v Newcastle United

May 04 - Arsenal v Brighton & Hove Albion FC

May 12 - Brighton & Hove Albion FC v Manchester City

 

 

CARDIFF

 

April 16 — Brighton v Cardiff City

April 20 — Cardiff City v Liverpool

April 27 — Fulham v Cardiff City

May 4 — Cardiff City v Crystal Palace

May 12 — Manchester United v Cardiff City

[striker]

Loser of Brighton v Cardiff is going down IMO. If Cardiff can win they have a shot, since Brighton could lose every remaining fixture.

[woodsaint]

Even the pessimists must realise we're safe now, can close this thread or change it to focus on catching the likes of Burnley and Newcastle above us

[OttawaSaint]

Might as well just delete those Saints fixtures from this thread. It’s between Cardiff and BHA now.

[Dark Munster]

[beatlesaint]

Brighton kind of slipped under the radar for me. I was looking at Burnley’s remaining fixtures after the Cardiff game as I’m not sure they will get anymore points.

 

But for Burnley before Saturday now read Brighton before Tuesday. Fail to beat Cardiff and they might beat Newcastle but I can’t see them get anything against the other three.

[S-Clarke]

Just Brighton and Cardiff now, although it will be Cardiff. They don't have enough and never have.

[saints-til-i-die]

If Cardiff don’t win Tues night, I think it’s done. If Cardiff win, Brighton look on very shaky ground. You can’t rule out random results at this time of year. I’d like 2 more points as over confidence can be dangerous. Ralph won’t be happy until we get to 40 points! Hopefully we can overtake Bournemouth!

[JRM]

Can someone add the run in fixtures for championship promotion race so we can discuss who we'll be playing next season, looks like Norwich are up, i hope they'll be joined by Sheffield United (with Billy Sharp and David McGoaldrought up front) and Bristol City from the play offs, couple of decent away days there.

[SaintBobby]

It does look like it will be Cardiff or just conceivably Brighton.

 

The bookies have Cardiff at 1/20 and Brighton at around 11/1 to go down.

 

You can get odds as long as 500/1 on Saints or Burnley.

 

Although it's a ludicrously over-used term, Tuesday really is "must win" for Cardiff. Even if they do, they are still about 1/5 to finish 18th.

[beatlesaint]

If Brighton lose at home to Cardiff they deserve to go. I mean who the hell loses at home to Cardi........oh

[DT]

I'd like Cardiff to get a win and a sniff of escape but still go down at Brighton's expense. Maximum Warnock ire/pain.

[Shroppie]

I'd like Cardiff to get a win and a sniff of escape but still go down at Brighton's expense. Maximum Warnock ire/pain.

Much as I appreciate your sentiment, I'd rather they lost, and again v Liverpool. Then a point for us on Saturday puts us virtually mathematically safe. The thought of enjoying the last four games trumps anyone else's discomfort.

 

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[Cabrone]

Until it's mathematically certain it's all to play for.

 

Just get a win at Newcastle and let's get to that point ASAP.

[LGTL]

If you look at the stats, we’ve only lost 1 more game then Everton, less games then West Ham and the same as Leicester. The job RH has done shouldn’t be underestimated.

[tajjuk]

If you look at the stats, we’ve only lost 1 more game then Everton, less games then West Ham and the same as Leicester. The job RH has done shouldn’t be underestimated.

 

It's staggering, it works out to 57 points over a whole season, 10 more than the current 7th place team have with 4 games left (or 5 for Wolves).

 

And considering our remaining fixtures there is nothing to say we won't finish on a high and push that points per game average even higher.

 

IF we can get some good key additions, next year could be very exciting, I mean I cannot see a non-top 6 team pushing into that top 6, the gap is too big, its hard to see any of them dropping down aside maybe a Hazard less Chelsea next year.

[Sheaf Saint]

If you look at the stats, we’ve only lost 1 more game then Everton, less games then West Ham and the same as Leicester. The job RH has done shouldn’t be underestimated.

 

We have lost fewer games than anyone else in the bottom half, and the same amount as Leicester who are currently 7th.

 

Unfortunately, we have also drawn more than any other club.

 

If we could have converted just three of those draws into wins (the 0-0s against Bournemouth and Newcastle spring to mind, as does the disallowed Austin goal costing us a win against Watford, and the more recent failure to hold on against Burnley), then we would currently be sitting above West Ham in 11th.

[aintforever]

If you look at the stats, we’ve only lost 1 more game then Everton, less games then West Ham and the same as Leicester. The job RH has done shouldn’t be underestimated.

 

This, especially considering the limitations of the attacking players he has to work with.

 

Hopefully he will be given the resources to add a few players and sort the squad out in the summer, could easily be up and around 7th spot next season.

[angelman]

The most amazing stat is that he has won the same number of games that Hughes and Pellegrino did put together. He did it in 18, Hughes/Pellegrino in 52. My God, what dross we put up with!!

[hypochondriac]

The most amazing stat is that he has won the same number of games that Hughes and Pellegrino did put together. He did it in 18, Hughes/Pellegrino in 52. My God, what dross we put up with!!

It was awful and the worst bit was how long it took to sort it out!

[fanimal]

Deeney sent off for Watford so presumably a two or three match ban means he misses our game next week?

[Whitey Grandad]

Deeney sent off for Watford so presumably a two or three match ban means he misses our game next week?

 

Violent conduct would mean a three match ban unless they appeal.

[Kingsland Red]

Violent conduct would mean a three match ban unless they appeal.

 

 

Watford may be best off accepting it, so he doesn't risk losing the appeal, get anything longer and miss the cup final....

[Whitey Grandad]

Watford may be best off accepting it, so he doesn't risk losing the appeal, get anything longer and miss the cup final....

 

They were my thoughts too.

[saint1977]

So out of the fixtures left, I predict; Newcastle 1-1, Bournemouth 2-1 to us; Watford 1-1 (especially minus Deeney); W Ham 2-1 to them, Hudds 2-0 to us.

 

Would give us without counting any chickens 8 more points and 44 points which having had only 9 from the first 15 games would be pretty good and more what we've been used to before we appointed the last 3 managers before RH.

 

In terms of Cardiff and Brighton, I would back Brighton to get another 4 points (although even that is probably optimistic given their dreadful display last night) and Cardiff another 5. On paper, Cardiff should get at least 6 and they'll beat a totally on the beach Palace but I'm not sure Fulham will be the pushover everyone expects. I can see them getting something at Man U if 4th place is off the table by then on the other hand.

 

Wolves will want to bounce back in fron their own fans on Sat V Brighton. I think Saints will finish 14th or 15th so some improvement overall on last year despite the even worse first half of the season.

[Sidney Fudpucker the 3rd]

I'd like to think that we'll pick up points in our next two games and make things easy for ourselves, however, this is Saints we're talking about and when do they ever do things the easy way? I could easily see us getting nothing from our next two games and the pressure being on for the last 3 as we battle it out with Brigton and Cardiff. :-(

[S-Clarke]

I'd like to think that we'll pick up points in our next two games and make things easy for ourselves, however, this is Saints we're talking about and when do they ever do things the easy way? I could easily see us getting nothing from our next two games and the pressure being on for the last 3 as we battle it out with Brigton and Cardiff. :-(

 

The battle is between Brighton and Cardiff.

 

We will get to 39 points by the end of the season at the very least, either before Huddersfield or against Huddersfield. 36 should be absolutley fine anyway. Not sure why people are panicking this morning.

 

Brighton, fair enough, they have a reason to panic a little - but they've still got a game in hand and they are still above the water, so Cardiff still have a lot to do with a very, very limited team.

[Sheaf Saint]

I would back Brighton to get another 4 points

 

I wouldn't, their current form is woeful.

 

They have lost their last four games without scoring a single goal, and their defending against Bournemouth at the weekend was comical.

 

Looking at their remaining fixtures, you really can't see them winning any of them. Newcastle at home is their only realistic hope of getting any points.

[VectisSaint]

I wouldn't, their current form is woeful.

 

They have lost their last four games without scoring a single goal, and their defending against Bournemouth at the weekend was comical.

 

Looking at their remaining fixtures, you really can't see them winning any of them. Newcastle at home is their only realistic hope of getting any points.

 

The only way Brighton will pick up points this season is if they replace Houghton now. They won't though. 11 points since January, 5 defeats on the trot (4 in the PL), they have been on a downward spiral for a long time, their early season form gave them enough points that their abysmal run went under the radar. Houghton does not have the wherewithal to turn it around, nor does he have the squad. Its just whether Cardiff have enough to catch them.

[simo]

I'm still going to have a couple of quid on us going down just on the off chance

[Saint86]

If Cardiff can get 7 points, they will stay up.

 

I would personally be happy with Brighton or Cardiff going down.

 

Cardiff are a scummy club and have acted appallingly over the very tragic events of January (and not for the first time).

 

Brighton because they play terrible football and are a club along the South coast which I think should only see us in the top flight.

 

Picking the two, I'd have Brighton to go down this year. Cardiff will be certs for relegation next year anyway

[SNSUN]

I'd like to think that we'll pick up points in our next two games and make things easy for ourselves, however, this is Saints we're talking about and when do they ever do things the easy way? I could easily see us getting nothing from our next two games and the pressure being on for the last 3 as we battle it out with Brigton and Cardiff. :-(

 

“This is not just Saints, this is Hasenhuttl’s Saints.” ...said in sexy M&S voice.

 

Not in ages have I been so confident of us getting the job done, if, of course, there’s even a job that needs doing. And I think 36 points will be enough for survival, not that we'll finish on that.

[Sheaf Saint]

“This is not just Saints, this is Hasenhuttl’s Saints.” ...said in sexy M&S voice.

 

Not in ages have I been so confident of us getting the job done, if, of course, there’s even a job that needs doing. And I think 36 points will be enough for survival, not that we'll finish on that.

 

Prior to the Wolves game, I predicted 2 wins and 2 draws from our remaining 6 games to be certain of safety, and we've already got one of those wins.

 

Another win and 2 more draws would put us on 41 points. Anything less would represent a pretty unlikely collapse in form, especially given our fixtures.

 

Not a chance that either Cardiff or Brighton will surpass that. If Cardiff do pull it out of the bag and stay up, it will be at Brighton's expense and not ours.

[Lighthouse]

I'd like to think that we'll pick up points in our next two games and make things easy for ourselves, however, this is Saints we're talking about and when do they ever do things the easy way? I could easily see us getting nothing from our next two games and the pressure being on for the last 3 as we battle it out with Brigton and Cardiff. :-(

 

Being massively generous to Cardiff, let’s suppose they beat Palace and Fulham and we choke at home to Huddersfield (draw). That puts us level but ahead on GD.

 

Cardiff aren’t getting a point of Liverpool, they just aren’t.

 

That leaves Cardiff needing more points from one visit to Old Trafford than we get against West Ham, Bournemouth, Newcastle and Watford combined.

[Whitey Grandad]

“This is not just Saints, this is Hasenhuttl’s Saints.” ...said in sexy M&S voice.

 

Not in ages have I been so confident of us getting the job done, if, of course, there’s even a job that needs doing. And I think 36 points will be enough for survival, not that we'll finish on that.

 

It's interesting that we finished last season on 36 points with a goal difference of -19. Stoke and Swansea both finished on 33 with West Brom on 31.

[Toomer]

Brighton are in free fall they are this season's Swansea.

[waylander]

I wouldn't, their current form is woeful.

 

They have lost their last four games without scoring a single goal, and their defending against Bournemouth at the weekend was comical.

 

Looking at their remaining fixtures, you really can't see them winning any of them. Newcastle at home is their only realistic hope of getting any points.

 

I agree. They may very well get no more points at all this season unless they improve a lot from last night's show.

[SaintBobby]

The permutations on our 99.5% chance of staying up with us playing Watford (A), Bournemouth (H), West Ham (A) and Huddersfield (H). Cardiff face Fulham (A), Palace (H) and Man Utd (A). Brighton have Spurs (A), Newcastle (H), Arsenal (A), Man City (H)

 

4+ points = safety guaranteed

 

3 points = safe unless Cardiff win all three of their matches AND Brighton take 5 points from their 4 games (even then GD might keep us above Brighton)

 

2 points = safe unless Cardiff win all three of their matches AND Brighton take 4 points from their 4 games (even then GD might keep us ahead of Brighton)

 

1 point = safe unless Cardiff pick up at least 2 wins plus a draw AND Brighton take 3 points from 4 matches (even then GD might keep us above Brighton)

 

0 points = safe unless Cardiff pick up 2 wins AND Brighton pick up 2 more points (same rider applies on GD)

Edited 21 April, 2019 by SaintBobby
Brighton play Man C not Man U on last day

[beatlesaint]

The permutations on our 99.5% chance of staying up with us playing Watford (A), Bournemouth (H), West Ham (A) and Huddersfield (H). Cardiff face Fulham (A), Palace (H) and Man Utd (A). Brighton have Spurs (A), Newcastle (H), Arsenal (A), Man Utd (H)

 

4+ points = safety guaranteed

 

3 points = safe unless Cardiff win all three of their matches AND Brighton take 5 points from their 4 games (even then GD might keep us above Brighton)

 

2 points = safe unless Cardiff win all three of their matches AND Brighton take 4 points from their 4 games (even then GD might keep us ahead of Brighton)

 

1 point = safe unless Cardiff pick up at least 2 wins plus a draw AND Brighton take 3 points from 4 matches (even then GD might keep us above Brighton)

 

0 points = safe unless Cardiff pick up 2 wins AND Brighton pick up 2 more points (same rider applies on GD)

 

thanks very much for this