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The Run In Thread

Saint Garrett

By Saint Garrett,
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Turkish

Turkish

Posted
Posted

Massive pressure on the Fulham game. Realistically we will be lucky to get more than one or two points from our other 3 games ahead, most likely none, whilst Cardiff have two winnable home fixtures and go into them on good form. Newcastle will beat Huddersfield then a massive game v Burnley, winners could make themselves as good as safe. Even if we beat fulham we’ll probably still be in the bottom 3 this time next week. The three cock ups at Burnley and home to palace and Cardiff could have done for us. We should be five points better off but for such pathetic late defending, whilst Ralph is a very good manager he doesn’t have the tools needed.

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OldNick

OldNick

Posted
Posted
Possibly a bit too early, but worth keeping an eye on fixtures. Home games in bold.

 

 

Brighton - 27 Points

Feb 26 - Leicester City v Brighton & Hove Albion FC

Mar 02 - Brighton & Hove Albion FC v Huddersfield Town

Mar 09 - Crystal Palace v Brighton & Hove Albion FC

Mar 16 - Brighton & Hove Albion FC v Cardiff City

Mar 30 - Brighton & Hove Albion FC v Southampton

April 06 - Tottenham Hotspur v Brighton & Hove Albion FC

April 13 - Brighton & Hove Albion FC v AFC Bournemouth

April 30 - Wolverhampton Wanderers v Brighton & Hove Albion FC

April 27 - Brighton & Hove Albion FC v Newcastle United

May 04 - Arsenal v Brighton & Hove Albion FC

May 12 - Brighton & Hove Albion FC v Manchester City

 

TBD - Chelsea v Brighton & Hove Albion FC

 

 

Burnley - 27 Points

Feb 23 - Burnley FC v Tottenham Hotspur

Feb 26 - Newcastle United v Burnley FC

Mar 02 - Burnley FC v Crystal Palace

Mar 10 - Liverpool v Burnley FC

Mar 16 - Burnley FC v Leicester City

Mar 30 - Burnley FC v Wolverhampton Wanderers

April 06 - AFC Bournemouth v Burnley FC

April 13 - Burnley FC v Cardiff City

April 20 - Chelsea v Burnley FC

April 27 - Burnley FC v Manchester City

May 04 - Everton v Burnley FC

May 12 - Burnley FC v Arsenal

 

 

Newcastle - 26 Points

February 23 - Newcastle United v Huddersfield Town

February 27 - Newcastle United v Burnley

March 02 - West Ham United v Newcastle United

March 09 - Newcastle United v Everton

March 16 - A.F.C. Bournemouth v Newcastle United

March 30 - Arsenal v Newcastle United

April 06 - Newcastle United v Crystal Palace

April 13 - Leicester City v Newcastle United

April 20 - Newcastle United v Southampton

April 27 - Brighton v Newcastle United

May 04 - Newcastle United v Liverpool

May 12 - Fulham v Newcastle United

 

 

Cardiff - 25 Points

February 23 — Cardiff City v Watford

February 26 — Cardiff City v Everton

March 2 — Wolverhampton v Cardiff City

March 9 — Cardiff City v West Ham United

March 16 — Brighton v Cardiff City

March 30 — Cardiff City v Chelsea

April 6 — Manchester City v Cardiff City

April 13 — Burnley v Cardiff City

April 20 — Cardiff City v Liverpool

April 27 — Fulham v Cardiff City

May 4 — Cardiff City v Crystal Palace

May 12 — Manchester United v Cardiff City

 

 

Saints - 24 Points

February 24 - Arsenal v Southampton

February 27 - Southampton v Fulham

March 02 - Manchester United v Southampton

March 09 - Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur

March 16 - Watford v Southampton

March 30 - Brighton and Hove Albion v Southampton

April 06 - Southampton v Liverpool

April 13 - Southampton v Wolverhampton Wanderers

April 20 - Newcastle v Southampton

April 27 - Southampton v Bournemouth

May 04 - West Ham United v Southampton

May 12 - Southampton v Huddersfield

Looking at the fixtures now it seems to me that it is only us or Cardiff. Brighton will get enough from their games , Newcastle and Palace will walk safety.
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supersonic

supersonic

Posted
Posted

I've just done a predictor, and it has us staying up on Goal Difference on 34 points.

 

14 Burnley 41pts -23

15 Brighton 38pts -23

16 Everton 36pts -22

17 SAINTS 34pts -27

-------------------------------------

18 Cardiff 34pts -54

19 Fulham 29pts -42

20 Hudder 13pts -61

 

 

Link: https://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-premier-league/

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Lighthouse

Lighthouse

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I’d personally take our fixtures. If we can stay within touch of Cardiff after the Spurs game, we’ve got a decent chance.

 

If we call the top 6 untouchable for both teams; 6 of our last 7 are winnable but only 3 of Cardiff’s are.

 

It’s going to be tedious, painful sh*te for both sets of fans but I just about fancy us over them. 1-5 at home to Watford is far worse than anything we’ve done.

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SNSUN

SNSUN

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Posted

Just had a look at the remaining fixtures - IMO we are capable of getting 15 more points from those fixtures, but I'm going to say we will get 8 more points, two wins, two draws, which will put us on 32 points. Which is, of course, not enough for survival. Our last 5 fixtures (and I include a Wolves team in that that could be on the beach by then) are favourable, but we can't go into those fixtures with any less than 30 points on the board - otherwise we are done for. That means 2 wins against either Fulham, Watford or Brighton, or miraculously getting something against Spuds, United or Liverpool.

 

We're not down yet, but with no Gabbiadini or Tadic to save our skins like last season, it is hard to know where the wins, nay even the goals, are going to come from.

 

Still, I look at Brighton's last few fixtures... if ever there was a team that slipped down the table and into relegation, it could be them. Although I think, player wise, they have enough about them.

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Badger

Badger

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Posted
I've just done a predictor, and it has us staying up on Goal Difference on 34 points.

 

14 Burnley 41pts -23

15 Brighton 38pts -23

16 Everton 36pts -22

17 SAINTS 34pts -27

-------------------------------------

18 Cardiff 34pts -54

19 Fulham 29pts -42

20 Hudder 13pts -61

 

 

Link: https://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-premier-league/

 

Cardiff's GD is currently -27 after 27 games.You're expecting that to double over the remaining 11 matches.

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saints-cris

saints-cris

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Currently I can only see us beating Fulham and Hudds (and even that I'm not convinced). So we need to scrape a win possibly two from Wolves, Brighton, Newcastle, Watford or Bmouth to ensure safety.

 

So hard to see that happening right now. 3 wins might just be enough with a few draws, but time is running out. We desperately need Ings and an (interested) Lemina back.

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Cabrone

Cabrone

Posted
Posted

Posted from another thread

 

............Optimistic......Pessimistic

Ful(h)....3..................1 (should be 3 points here but after Cardiff??)

Utd(a)....0.................0

Spurs(h).1.................0

BHA(a)...3.................0

Liv(h).....1.................0

Wolves(h).3...............0

New(a)....1................0

Bmth(h)..3.................0

WHU(a)...1.................0

Hudd(h)...3.................1

Watfd(a)..1.................0

 

TOTAL......20...............2

 

Avg = 11 points which puts us on 35 in May.

 

With a GD as bad as Cardiff's can they get 11 points?

 

IMO at this moment in time it feels like a coin toss.

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GGalpin

GGalpin

Posted
Posted
Currently I can only see us beating Fulham and Hudds (and even that I'm not convinced). So we need to scrape a win possibly two from Wolves, Brighton, Newcastle, Watford or Bmouth to ensure safety.

 

So hard to see that happening right now. 3 wins might just be enough with a few draws, but time is running out. We desperately need Ings and an (interested) Lemina back.

 

Only one out of that lot I could see us winning is Brighton, who are quietly in a rather horrendous run of form. Not a lot is being said about them but they're on the slide. Saying that they have four of the bottom eight to come at home including us, so should see them over the line. But I'd hope we can get something there, would make things easier.

 

Bournemouth possibly, don't see us getting much of out the others.

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Saint Pete

Saint Pete

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Looking at our run in, we simply HAVE to improve our home form, and that starts with getting the 3 points tomorrow. We cannot stay up if we continue to fail in winnable home games. I reckon we need to look to get at least 3 wins at home, which realistically need to come from Fulham, Wolves, Bournemouth and Huddersfield games. Then try and get 1 more win from the other games and/ or a series of draws.

 

It's still very possible for us to stay up but we need to generate some confidence at home and that makes tomorrow night crucial with the games coming up after that.

 

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There when Franny scored

There when Franny scored

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Posted

I'm going to lay my cards on the table and say I think we are done this year unless there is a total collapse in form by Cardiff. How we have got to this stage is basically negligence in the running of the club. With Obafemi now out for the season (Ralph's reaction at the time shows the significance), Lemina seemingly no where near a return, Ings unable to maintain fitness and Betrand having lost form/condition we are woefully short of any attacking threat to the point where our fit strikers are the worst in the division.

 

In strikes me as incredible that we have got to a situation where we have players out on loan that could make a difference and no prospect of recalling them.

 

Reed has done really well for Blackburn at right wing back and would at least be decent cover/competing to start. He is lively and aggressive and would suit Ralph's style.

 

Boufal has been inconsistent, but has the ability to provide something different at least off the bench.

 

I'm not at all sure Carillo isn't better than Long and Austin; Gabbi is surely better and appears to be showing it currently.

 

You also can't really say Cedric wouldn't improve our squad as it stands.

 

I know Ralph said he wanted a smaller squad, but given the injuries we have now that policy looks reckless as much as I like him. That policy may have been driven by the board's insistence on cost cutting, at least in part.

 

The failings at board level that Ralph has had to work within the context of are well documented, but the sheer repetition of failure strikes of a fundamental failure of leadership as others have mentioned.

 

For those that have watched "Sunderland 'till I Die", the parallels are there to behold. Disinterested, clueless owner, impotent chief exec, plagued by injuries and a failure to properly strengthen, seemingly disenfranchised/disinterested expensive players (speculatively), and a fairly decent, honest manager (Coleman).

 

We may have slightly more quality than Cardiff (except up front?), but our problems run deeper.

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Lord Duckhunter

Lord Duckhunter

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Posted

Brighton’s beat again. They haven’t won in the league this year, and have gained 6 points in the last 12 games.

 

Cardiff have been battered at home in the last 2, both winnable games. They have Wolves away Sat, who will be stung by losing to Huddersfield tonight, and there’s history between the managers so I’m sure Nuno Santo will want to put Warnock in his place. It beggars belief we won’t finish above them. Imo

 

 

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Give it to Ron

Give it to Ron

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Brighton’s beat again. They haven’t won in the league this year, and have gained 6 points in the last 12 games.

 

Cardiff have been battered at home in the last 2, both winnable games. They have Wolves away Sat, who will be stung by losing to Huddersfield tonight, and there’s history between the managers so I’m sure Nuno Santo will want to put Warnock in his place. It beggars belief we won’t finish above them. Imo

 

 

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Who do you see us beating can’t score cant defend?

 

 

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doddisalegend

doddisalegend

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Posted
Who do you see us beating can’t score cant defend?

 

 

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Who knows.

 

We are rubbish but then things are never that clear cut I never thought we'd beat Arsenal or hold Chelsea but we did.

 

It's not over until it's mathematically over either way up or down its going to be a close run thing.

 

 

 

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Give it to Ron

Give it to Ron

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Posted
Who knows.

 

We are rubbish but then things are never that clear cut I never thought we'd beat Arsenal or hold Chelsea but we did.

 

It's not over until it's mathematically over either way up or down its going to be a close run thing.

 

 

 

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I am clinging to that too how do we get back to beating Leicester and Everton form?

 

 

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Cabrone

Cabrone

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Posted
I'm pretty sure Cardiff are going to get more than two points for the rest of the season!

 

My Cardiff predictions: Wolves (a) - 0 ; Spam (h) - 1 ; Brighton(a) - 1 ; Chelski (h) - 0 ; Citeh(h) - 0 ; Burnley(a) - 0 ; Pool(h) - 0 ; Fulham(a) - 1 ; Palace(h) - 3 ; Utd(a) - 0

 

That makes 31 points. Less than I previously thought TBH but still a bit more than 2 points.

 

They could get 2 points, it's certainly not out of the question but seems very unlikely to me.

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benjii

benjii

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Cardiff are bad enough to lose all their remaining matches. I’m not saying they will, they’ll probably grab a win somewhere but looking at their fixtures it’s possible they won’t. The Fulham and Palace matches will be massive for them - much may depend on whether the opposition is up for it or already safe / relegated.

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Nordic Saint

Nordic Saint

Posted
Posted
Super computer predicts final league table 17th for us...

 

https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/supercomputer-predicts-final-premier-league-2588454.amp

 

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If that happens, the owners will have hit their target for this year: to use as little as possible of the club's income and make a profit from the transfer market whilst just hanging on to Premier League status.

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beatlesaint

beatlesaint

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Posted
Think we’ll be ok but it’ll be interesting to see where we stand in 4 games time.

Utd think we need a miracle.

Spurs well at least it’s after their trip to Dortmund

Watford, tough but could possible to get something

Brighton, huge game, especially if we’ve slipped back into relegation by then.

 

you can forget Watford for now, they are still in the Cup :)

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qwertyell

qwertyell

Posted
Posted
That’ll mean a three week break between Spurs and Brighton. Hmmm, not sure how I feel about that.
It means Ings can come back against Spurs, come off injured again, and still be in contention for the next match.

 

It might be the only way we can get him playing in consecutive games.

 

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Shroppie

Shroppie

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Being as kind as i can to Cardiff, i cant see them getting more than 8 points during the run in. Means we need 7 to be sure although run ins are never that straight forward
Being generous to Cardiff I could possibly give them 10 at a push, but their confidence must be shot after shipping 8 goals at home in the last two.

 

A pessimistic view of our remaining games gives us 10-11, but with our better GD that will hopefully be enough. Can also factor in Brighton who are in freefall (but have winnable games) and Burnley who've had a great run but could slide now they've lost.

 

Not really expecting anything from Man U and Spurs but a point would be a bonus and keep the spirits up.

 

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tajjuk

tajjuk

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Posted

Just looked at Cardiff's fixtures and they have given me more hope.

 

Wolves (a)

West Ham (h)

Chelsea (h)

Man City (a)

Burnley (a)

Liverpool (h)

Fulham (a)

Palace (h)

Man Utd (a)

 

4 of the top 6 still to play, tough away games at Burnley and Wolves. Meaning you are really looking at the West Ham, Fulham and Palace games for their main source of points. 10 points maybe 11 from those? Would put them on 36, meaning we'd need 10 from ours.

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Lighthouse

Lighthouse

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Posted
Just looked at Cardiff's fixtures and they have given me more hope.

 

Wolves (a)

West Ham (h)

Chelsea (h)

Man City (a)

Burnley (a)

Liverpool (h)

Fulham (a)

Palace (h)

Man Utd (a)

 

4 of the top 6 still to play, tough away games at Burnley and Wolves. Meaning you are really looking at the West Ham, Fulham and Palace games for their main source of points. 10 points maybe 11 from those? Would put them on 36, meaning we'd need 10 from ours.

 

I'd have said 7 or 8 was fairly optimistic for Cardiff. Beating West Ham and Palace at home (fixtures we got 1 point from), with another point at Fulham and Burnley. I'll stake my claim on them getting 33 points and come back to this post in May. Wouldn't like to guess where we end up relative to that but I would 100% take our run in over theirs.

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Shroppie

Shroppie

Posted
Posted
A view from the Welsh. Brighton safe on 39, Cardiff safe on 37 saints down on 36...

 

Predicting how many points Cardiff City, Southampton and Brighton will get in the Premier League relegation scrap https://a.msn.com/r/2/BBUcbgB?m=en-gb&referrerID=InAppShare

 

 

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Very much a view through Welsh-tinted glasses.

 

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Lighthouse

Lighthouse

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Very much a view through Welsh-tinted glasses.

 

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Seems to think they're going to improve from 0.89ppg over the season to 1.2ppg in the last 10 games, with a disproportionate number of fixtures against the top 6. They're terrible travelers and only have 1 home game left against teams in the bottom half.

 

If they drew their next 2, that leaves us level with a better GD. They then have to outscore us with 4/8 games against the top 6, whilst we only have Liverpool in our last 8.

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Manuel

Manuel

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Posted

Can see the possibility of 3 points against Brighton and Huddersfield (taking us to 31 points). Will need more than that though and looking at the fixtures I think it will be very tough. Expect West Ham will have little to play for by April but that's about it.

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Lord Duckhunter

Lord Duckhunter

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Posted
Can see the possibility of 3 points against Brighton and Huddersfield (taking us to 31 points). Will need more than that though and looking at the fixtures I think it will be very tough. Expect West Ham will have little to play for by April but that's about it.

 

Don’t talk rubbish man.

 

Wolves & Watford as well as West Ham will have nothing to play for. Continue as they have been and Newcastle won’t by the time we go there. Boscombe won’t either, but the local element may make that tougher.

 

We have an incredibly easy run in, with 7 of the last 8 very much winnable.

 

 

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nta786

nta786

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Posted
Don’t talk rubbish man.

 

Wolves & Watford as well as West Ham will have nothing to play for. Continue as they have been and Newcastle won’t by the time we go there. Boscombe won’t either, but the local element may make that tougher.

 

We have an incredibly easy run in, with 7 of the last 8 very much winnable.

 

 

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I would say these two teams are the two who do have something to play for- the one who finishes 7th will very likely play in Europe next year.

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