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Looks like it's time for the "relegation price 2019" thread.

tisspahars

By tisspahars,
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SaintBobby

SaintBobby

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I'd say 9/1 or 10/1 is about right. Basically, can't see where Cardiff are going to get the points from. Our GD means they need to get three more points than us over nine games.

 

How many points is it likely Cardiff will get? Not sure, but could well be just 4 or 5 given their run in. If they do perform that poorly, we'd only need a small handful of points.

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whelk

whelk

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I'd say 9/1 or 10/1 is about right. Basically, can't see where Cardiff are going to get the points from. Our GD means they need to get three more points than us over nine games.

 

How many points is it likely Cardiff will get? Not sure, but could well be just 4 or 5 given their run in. If they do perform that poorly, we'd only need a small handful of points.

 

Were you the author of the ‘two more wins needed’ thread a couple of months ago?

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SaintBobby

SaintBobby

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Were you the author of the ‘two more wins needed’ thread a couple of months ago?

 

Yep...and pretty much stick to it. I did say the wins needed to include beating Cardiff at St Mary's, and we blew that one badly, which seriously affects the maths when you screw up a massive six pointer. Had we even drawn that match, we'd be very close to safe by now (say 30/1).

 

Had we won it, we'd now be 8 clear of Cardiff with 9 games to go and with them averaging less than a point a game, we would stand a fair chance of staying up even if we lost all the remaining matches.

 

The spread of points Cardiff are likely to get from here is anyone's guess. I would think their anticipated return is about six points (7 or 8 points based on their results to date, but they have a tougher than average run in). But, optimistically, it could be measurably lower than that. Perhaps just two, three or four.

 

Saints' odds on being relegated are so long because Cardiff have so much to do.

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Lighthouse

Lighthouse

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Without wanting to count any chickens, if you were realistically betting on Cardiff I'd say 2 points from their next 5 games looks about right. That still puts them below where we are at the moment on GD.

 

The long odds are understandable IMO.

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Sergei Gotsmanov

Sergei Gotsmanov

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Without wanting to count any chickens, if you were realistically betting on Cardiff I'd say 2 points from their next 5 games looks about right. That still puts them below where we are at the moment on GD.

 

The long odds are understandable IMO.

 

I would reckon that Cardiff's chances are 2-3 in 10. That makes the odds good value. I am of course a bottle half full pundit!

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tisspahars

tisspahars

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Well what a difference a couple of goals makes.....we are all the way out to 12/1 to go down this morning. One point worth making I think is that given the mood on here had the 2nd half mirrored the first (see the match thread for details!) and the other results yesterday, the feeling on here would have been dark and completely resigned to relegation (not EVERYONE of course) and yet we would still have been around 9/2 to go down.

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Tamesaint

Tamesaint

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Well what a difference a couple of goals makes.....we are all the way out to 12/1 to go down this morning. One point worth making I think is that given the mood on here had the 2nd half mirrored the first (see the match thread for details!) and the other results yesterday, the feeling on here would have been dark and completely resigned to relegation (not EVERYONE of course) and yet we would still have been around 9/2 to go down.

 

Very true.... but you have to remember that some of the people who post on the match thread have some (let's call it) "unusual" views.

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Danbert

Danbert

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After Burnley's defeat we are now 15/1 to go down on Betfair currently. I'm pretty confident - but that definitely seems on the big side, and would have been unimagineable at about 4.20 yesterday!

 

What's on the big side is Brighton at 40-1 IMHO, they still have to face City, Arsenal and Spurs, and apart from the last two games their form has been very poor for some time.

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Dusic

Dusic

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What's on the big side is Brighton at 40-1 IMHO, they still have to face City, Arsenal and Spurs, and apart from the last two games their form has been very poor for some time.
They have had two years in the PL yet never really been in any true danger of relegation despite being in the bottom 3rd all the time.

 

They aren't safe, but are doing ok and also have a game in hand, albeit vs Chelsea.

 

I think they will be fine and given Cardiff's fixtures I think Brighton being relegated would need them to not win any of their remaining games - which is unlikely.

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The9

The9

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Well what a difference a couple of goals makes.....we are all the way out to 12/1 to go down this morning. One point worth making I think is that given the mood on here had the 2nd half mirrored the first (see the match thread for details!) and the other results yesterday, the feeling on here would have been dark and completely resigned to relegation (not EVERYONE of course) and yet we would still have been around 9/2 to go down.

 

I haven't even thought we might go down since Man U at home tbh and Hughes was still in charge then. Even losing twice to effing Cardiff for eff's sake hasn't made me think any different. We are twice the team at the moment that we were at any point last season and we didn't even go down then. I think we'll end up 13th with Cardiff about 7 points off safety at the end of the season.

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Turkish

Turkish

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Yep...and pretty much stick to it. I did say the wins needed to include beating Cardiff at St Mary's, and we blew that one badly, which seriously affects the maths when you screw up a massive six pointer. Had we even drawn that match, we'd be very close to safe by now (say 30/1).

 

Had we won it, we'd now be 8 clear of Cardiff with 9 games to go and with them averaging less than a point a game, we would stand a fair chance of staying up even if we lost all the remaining matches.

 

The spread of points Cardiff are likely to get from here is anyone's guess. I would think their anticipated return is about six points (7 or 8 points based on their results to date, but they have a tougher than average run in). But, optimistically, it could be measurably lower than that. Perhaps just two, three or four.

 

Saints' odds on being relegated are so long because Cardiff have so much to do.

 

No we wouldn’t. Your utterly insane post was made on the 27/12. We’ve won 4 games since then, so your “two more wins” nonsense mean we’ve had 6 points less as we’s only have won 2. Or 4, so we’d be on 24 points, even if that win had come against Cardiff they’d still have 25 points so be one above us and remember we can’t win another game this season according to you. So we’d need 8 draws to get us to 32 points.

 

So as was pointed out at the time your post of two more wins was and still is absolute ******. The fact you stand by it just proves you haven’t got an effing clue what you’re on about.

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SaintBobby

SaintBobby

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No we wouldn’t. Your utterly insane post was made on the 27/12. We’ve won 4 games since then, so your “two more wins” nonsense mean we’ve had 6 points less as we’s only have won 2. Or 4, so we’d be on 24 points, even if that win had come against Cardiff they’d still have 25 points so be one above us and remember we can’t win another game this season according to you. So we’d need 8 draws to get us to 32 points.

 

So as was pointed out at the time your post of two more wins was and still is absolute ******. The fact you stand by it just proves you haven’t got an effing clue what you’re on about.

 

Oh.

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SaintBobby

SaintBobby

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No we wouldn’t. Your utterly insane post was made on the 27/12. We’ve won 4 games since then, so your “two more wins” nonsense mean we’ve had 6 points less as we’s only have won 2. Or 4, so we’d be on 24 points, even if that win had come against Cardiff they’d still have 25 points so be one above us and remember we can’t win another game this season according to you. So we’d need 8 draws to get us to 32 points.

 

So as was pointed out at the time your post of two more wins was and still is absolute ******. The fact you stand by it just proves you haven’t got an effing clue what you’re on about.

 

I'm not sure why you're counting a "non-win" as a defeat. If we'd, say, drawn with Everton, Arsenal and Spurs rather than beaten them, but beaten Cardiff, we'd be on 27 points, 2 clear of Cardiff, who'd be on 25 points.

 

How many more points are Cardiff going to pick up? Who knows? Maybe as few as 3, 4 or 5 though. In which case, we'd be needing 1, 2 or 3 draws to stay up with a measly 5 wins to our name, assuming our GD remained better than Cardiff's.

 

As I said at the time, 5 wins would be pushing it a lot. 6 wins would look much more plausible, although hardly anywhere near a guarantee. Obviously getting by on so few wins would basically make it certain that you need to beat the teams around you or just below you and we blew that v Cardiff.

 

Also, goes without saying that if you're even thinking of staying up with 5 or 6 wins, you'd going to need a lot of draws rather than losses from the remaining games.

 

We will see at the end of the season whether my view of 5 wins (including v Cardiff) might possibly have been enough (my guess is it will fall 2 or 3 points short) or my view that there was a fair chance that six wins would stand a fair chance of doing it turns out to have been right (that seems about 50-50 or a little better)

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whelk

whelk

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“If you’re thinking of staying up with 5 or 6 wins...”

 

It’s only you mate who has this preposterous theory. Give it up.

 

“How many more points will Cardiff pick up?”

 

how about don’t assume zero eh.

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JRM

JRM

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I'm not really a betting expert so won't comment on the odds , but i am certain there will be some unexpected results between now and the end of the season. Cardiff could get something at home to Chelsea who are so inconsistent, and Liverpool go there a few days after a tough 2nd leg away to Porto, just looking at their Fulham game yesterday and it's possible they'll slip up in a game like this.

 

Burnley losing 4 in a row stands out combined with a tough run in, they will need to beat Cardiff at home.

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  • 2 weeks later...
tisspahars

tisspahars

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It seems as if this thread could soon be done for the year (and hopefully many years to come!). If, as seems likely now, we stay up fairly comfortably, is it too much to hope for that the "we are 100% down" brigade pause to think for a moment next time we are in a sticky situation? Probably.

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