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The January Transfer Window 2019!


Kieran1uk

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The thing is wages, agent fees and loyalty bonuses are highly likely to correlate directly with the transfer activity of the club. Since our transfer activity is entirely unremarkable compared with our league peers (total amount spent, record signing value etc), I see no reason to assume that these ancillary costs are vastly out of proportion with the rest of the league. In other words, they're pretty much irrelevant when asking the question of why we appear skint in contrast to the clubs around us.

 

Our wage bill is not an 'ancillary cost'. It is massive and represents our biggest expenditure item. Seeking to draw comparisons between our finances and those of our peers is pointless when you are unaware of our finances or theirs. The reality, contrary to popular belief, is that we have spent a shed load of cash on players, agents, wages etc thus its obvious that we are not rolling in cash. Whether other clubs are in the same position is irrelevant.

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I'd guess that we probably had for this season a budget for transfer fees of around 40-50 million and most of that has been used up in purchases in the summer. There might be like £10-12 million left to spend.

 

The outs have not really generated any cash yet, they are loans, so we might generate a decent kitty in the summer if those loans turn into permanent transfers. (Gabbiadini, Hoedt, Boufal, Carrillo, Clasie, Cedric, Carillo + maybe Austin) we could generate like £50 - £70 million there, plus clear like £300 - 400k from the wage budget, and might have a planned transfer budget again of about £30 - 40 million to add on top.

 

(depending where the funds for Ings is coming from)

Which could all set it up nicely for the summer but makes the big fees being demanded by clubs now more problematic.

 

This is my thought exactly but couldn’t be arsed to type it, so thanks.

 

Also think that if RH thinks the squad left is capable of staying up and the already co firmed requirement of a small squad surely that means spending the summer bushet on maybe 2 really decent players sprinkles in with the youth team players to fill the squad.

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If Gallagher is loaned out we need to insist he actually starts otherwise its pointless. His career has been held back enough with poor loan moves. He was brilliant at Blackburn in a dire side, but Birmingham were a mess.

 

Would be daft to lose him AND Austin without replacement. Personally I'd rather ditch Austin due to wages and inability to run.

 

Why would we need to do that? If he's half as good as many seem to think, he'll be the first name on the team sheet. If he doesn't actually start and barely gets into the team, it pretty much proves he is nowhere near Premier League level and that he just needs to leave.

 

I do agree that I'd sooner lose Austin but that's not saying much.

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As a bit of a follow up – my previous post was focused mainly on our incoming transfers versus our outgoing transfers and showing we’ve had a net negative amount (i.e. we’ve spent more than we’ve received on players).

 

After a bit more research though this does not necessarily reflect the overall profitability of the club. In fact taking a look at previous accounts and reporting from the guardian about yearly club profits you can see that between the 2013-14 seasons and 2016-17 seasons we consistently made a healthy profit with figures of +£29m, +£15m, +£6m and +£42m following an -£7 million loss in the 2012-13 season (all figures pre-tax, last years accounts won’t be made available until March this year).

 

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/00053301/filing-history

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2018/jun/06/premier-league-finances-club-guide-2016-17

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/jun/01/premier-league-finances-club-by-club

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2016/may/25/premier-league-finances-club-by-club-breakdown-david-conn

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/may/01/premier-league-accounts-club-by-club-david-conn

 

This would suggest that the club does have some money but that it is not being put back into the playing squad. The clubs mantra that any money from player sales going back into the squad would still technically be true with the caveat that income/profits from other sources is not going back into the squad.

 

I suppose the big question then is how this profit is being used and is it to the betterment of the club? At a guess some of it has gone into trying to improving our commercial revenue streams (which if profits are rising would indicate it is working) but you’d like to think if push came to shove that some of this could be used on the squad if we were in danger of relegation.

 

A bigger question is what are the goals of the owners? Kat has already made quarter of a billion out of the club but Gao has yet to make his pile. His major asset when he bought the club was his company, Lander Sports Development. The share price of Lander was at a peak of 21.87 yuan in June, 2016 but it has been falling ever since. At the time he bought the club, in August 2016, it had halved in value to 10.57 yuan. But, since then, in order to raise cash, presumably to pay back the loan he took out to pay Kat, he has been selling off most of his shares cheaply so now the share price is down to just 2.95 yuan and he owns only 24% of Lander. This means, that apart from the football club, he is now only worth a small fraction of what he once was. Depending on how much money he needs for his retirement, it seems likely he'll want to make money for himself out of the club. Of course, he must know, as Kat did, that the club will be worth much more if it stays in the Premier League. At the time he bought the club, it was said that his main reason was to help promote Lander Sports' ambitious football town projects in China but now he no longer owns Lander Sports, you'd have to speculate that his best way to get any return on his investment now would be to sell the club while it's still in the Premier League. The good thing is, he must know it would be a financial disaster for him if the club were relegated before he sold it.

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This window is quickly turning into a big disappointment. Initially I was very happy when we started shipping players out, all good from my perspective as it was fringe players on high wages. However, I did actually assume that we would be bring someone in. At this point, if Ings/Redmond get a knock then we're seriously light going forward. That makes me feel pretty uneasy, and the RB slot is a big question mark too.

 

As time ticks on I get more concerned.

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What if RH wasn't happy with Cedric's supposed 'don't really want to be here anymore' attitude and it was affecting the 'all for one and one for all' ethos that RH has instilled in the squad? Might the pros of ditching him not outweigh the pros of keeping him in that scenario?

Only 15 matches left. I'm sure Cedric wouldn't have kicked up a fuss being told he'd be a backup until the summer, and would be free to leave then.

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This window is quickly turning into a big disappointment. Initially I was very happy when we started shipping players out, all good from my perspective as it was fringe players on high wages. However, I did actually assume that we would be bring someone in. At this point, if Ings/Redmond get a knock then we're seriously light going forward. That makes me feel pretty uneasy, and the RB slot is a big question mark too.

 

As time ticks on I get more concerned.

Why did you assume it would be any different from the last two Januarys?
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Only 15 matches left. I'm sure Cedric wouldn't have kicked up a fuss being told he'd be a backup until the summer, and would be free to leave then.

 

Perhaps we're so broke we needed his wages off the payroll. Which is pretty scary. Or perhaps he was just a bit of a moaner behind the scenes. Or maybe the loan is as good as it gets, when we wanted a sale. Ho hum. This is still a pretty underwhelming window. Get the spotters out for players in the crowd tonight?

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We don’t buy/loan anyone - "moan moan moan...buy anyone!"

We buy Carrillo and loan Caceres - "moan moan..waste of money, what’s the point?"

 

We get rid of deadwood - "moan moan...will come back to bite us".

We keep deadwood - "moan moan...ffs clear the deadwood, wasting wage money, taking up squad places".

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We don’t buy/loan anyone - "moan moan moan...buy anyone!"

We buy Carrillo and loan Caceres - "moan moan..waste of money, what’s the point?"

 

We get rid of deadwood - "moan moan...will come back to bite us".

We keep deadwood - "moan moan...ffs clear the deadwood, wasting wage money, taking up squad places".

 

Caceres was not a loan, he was a free agent.

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We don’t buy/loan anyone - "moan moan moan...buy anyone!"

We buy Carrillo and loan Caceres - "moan moan..waste of money, what’s the point?"

 

We get rid of deadwood - "moan moan...will come back to bite us".

We keep deadwood - "moan moan...ffs clear the deadwood, wasting wage money, taking up squad places".

 

You've been here 12 years and this still surprises you?

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We don’t buy/loan anyone - "moan moan moan...buy anyone!"

We buy Carrillo and loan Caceres - "moan moan..waste of money, what’s the point?"

 

We get rid of deadwood - "moan moan...will come back to bite us".

We keep deadwood - "moan moan...ffs clear the deadwood, wasting wage money, taking up squad places".

 

Cedric, Hoedt, Gabbiadini, Davis were not "deadwood"

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We don’t buy/loan anyone - "moan moan moan...buy anyone!"

We buy Carrillo and loan Caceres - "moan moan..waste of money, what’s the point?"

 

We get rid of deadwood - "moan moan...will come back to bite us".

We keep deadwood - "moan moan...ffs clear the deadwood, wasting wage money, taking up squad places".

 

Would you really describe Cedric as deadwood?

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We don’t buy/loan anyone - "moan moan moan...buy anyone!"

We buy Carrillo and loan Caceres - "moan moan..waste of money, what’s the point?"

 

We get rid of deadwood - "moan moan...will come back to bite us".

We keep deadwood - "moan moan...ffs clear the deadwood, wasting wage money, taking up squad places".

 

Easy to resolve,have enough football nous at the club not to buy the deadwood in the first place. Saves on money and moans.

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Hoedt is the only one who was deadwood. The others are all capable backups until better players are brought in (Cedric and Gabbi in particular, where we are thin in those positions).

 

Agreed. Big FF is deadwood.

 

These guys seem to be confusing deadwood with squad player.

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Hoedt is the only one who was deadwood. The others are all capable backups until better players are brought in (Cedric and Gabbi in particular, where we are thin in those positions).

That's your opinion. They were not in RH plans. They were deadwood.

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Hoedt is the only one who was deadwood. The others are all capable backups until better players are brought in (Cedric and Gabbi in particular, where we are thin in those positions).

 

Agree completely. I don't really have a problem with selling Cedric but we haven't sold him we've loaned him leaving us with Valery as our only recognised right back. We may yet bring someone in but if we don't why have we let Cedric go especially as he may be back in the summer? To say he's deadwood having been involved in the last 5 games is rather odd.....

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Cedric had a calf strain and when fit has played a part in ever game RH has managed!
Oh go on then... I'll give you the benefit of that erotic tingle you get when you receive a bite...

 

Cedric was fit for at least 4 PL games between reported injury and leaving, and "played a part" in two of them (both off the bench, and only because one of Valery or Ramsey was unavailable as back up IIRC).

 

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Edited by trousers
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The manager said we'd only sign people if good long-term options became available. They have been clear. It's good they're not just throwing money around for the sake of it like so many clubs.

 

For the first time since Koeman we properly invested in a manager while than poorly judged expensive signings that abysmal managers can confuse.

 

Right on message, you should get a job offer from Ralph K tomorrow morning.

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16 of 24 is a lot more than barely and that’s with an idiot like Hughes deliberately playing him when injured.

 

Even With Obafemi injured, Austin is still nowhere near the bench, let alone gabbi if he was still here.

 

lets see if he lasts much past 60 mins at the weekend..hell, even tonight

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