SaintBobby Posted 2 January, 2019 Author Share Posted 2 January, 2019 Back to back wins for Burnley obviously changes the odds. Even so, three wins likely enough. Even now. You don’t seem able to grasp how actual results alter future odds. But you’re clearly very badly mentally and socially retarded, so I guess we need to make allowances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CB Fry Posted 2 January, 2019 Share Posted 2 January, 2019 Back to back wins for Burnley obviously changes the odds. Even so, three wins likely enough. Even now. You don’t seem able to grasp how actual results alter future odds. But you’re clearly very badly mentally and socially retarded, so I guess we need to make allowances.So we're at six wins to stay up now, sweetie? Fair enough, your five lasted all of a week then. Do you want to double check with your statistician mate what does the odds for things and stuff and that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 3 January, 2019 Author Share Posted 3 January, 2019 So we're at six wins to stay up now, sweetie? Fair enough, your five lasted all of a week then. Do you want to double check with your statistician mate what does the odds for things and stuff and that? Well, sweetpea, I'm not sure if you're aware but Burnley won two on the spin...and Cardiff won away at Leicester, my little honeypie. The combined odds on that happening was about 30/1, so it does make the likely final points position of the table a bit different - but not massively so. Does that make sense, my cute little cherrykins? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CB Fry Posted 3 January, 2019 Share Posted 3 January, 2019 (edited) Well, sweetpea, I'm not sure if you're aware but Burnley won two on the spin...and Cardiff won away at Leicester, my little honeypie. The combined odds on that happening was about 30/1, so it does make the likely final points position of the table a bit different - but not massively so. Does that make sense, my cute little cherrykins? Why don't we go back to first principles?. Five wins won't be enough to keep any team up this season. That was painfully obvious when you started the thread, nothing has changed since, nothing. Anyone with half a brain knew that. It's very sweet that you have called me lots of rude names over and over again for simply stating something so obviously correct. I don't know why you are so upset with very very basic, easily understood information. But yeah, why not pretend that the fact that teams around the bottom quarter of the table will have won 4 or 5 games by match 20 is some against-the-odds freak event rather than something that happens every season. Absolutely fu cking hilarious. Have you ever followed a real life Premier League table before? You know, ever? Seriously, have a look. Edited 3 January, 2019 by CB Fry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 3 January, 2019 Author Share Posted 3 January, 2019 Why don't we go back to first principles?. Five wins won't be enough to keep any team up this season. That was painfully obvious when you started the thread, nothing has changed since, nothing. Anyone with half a brain knew that. It's very sweet that you have called me lots of rude names over and over again for simply stating something so obviously correct. I don't know why you are so upset with very very basic, easily understood information. But yeah, why not pretend that the fact that teams around the bottom quarter of the table will have won 4 or 5 games by match 20 is some against-the-odds freak event rather than something that happens every season. Absolutely fu cking hilarious. Have you ever followed a real life Premier League table before? You know, ever? Seriously, have a look. Pumpkin, pumpkin, pumpkin....try to relax and let me explain... The performance of the bottom cluster of teams heading into Xmas was very poor compared to the usual points per game total needed to stay up. In previous “real life” Premier League seasons, there’s even been a time where 40 points was insufficient to stay up. I have to tell you, sweetie pie, that looks very unlikely this year indeed. There has been a mild reversion to the mean in the last few results (two wins for Burnley, a surprise away win for Cardiff) and the points total needed has also ticked up with Huddersfield falling off a cliff by losing all three recent matches against their competitors, honeypie. That does make two more wins now pretty unlikely given that recent, highly odds against, turn of events in the last few matches. But, honeybun, it doesn’t utterly transform things. Somewhere around 28 or 29 points could well be enough to stay up this year, sweetpea. So, a team with a hatful of draws could well stay up on 6 wins. In the “real life” Premier League, my pumpkin pie, draws are worth one point and wins are worth three. So, sweetie, you do need to look at the number of draws, not just the number of wins. So, cherub, a final tally of W 5 D 15 L 18 could just about, at a pinch, keep a team up, even now. More likely though, you probably now need six wins in Saints’ position. Seven wins in total would be extremely likely to secure survival, all things equal. Just to clarify for you, cherrykins; 1. 2 more wins and a load of draws = now pretty damned unlikely to survive given recent results, but not totally out of the question. 2. 3 more wins and a good number of draws = cutting it fine, but pretty fair chance. 3. 4 or more wins = very probably safe, assuming you pick up some draws. Hope that helps you, honeybun, try not to get too stressed. Stay calm and take deep breaths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cabbage_Face Posted 3 January, 2019 Share Posted 3 January, 2019 This thread needs shutting. Makes zero sense Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted 3 January, 2019 Share Posted 3 January, 2019 The bottom end of the league is so dire this season, that you may only need scraps to stay up. For everyone other than ourselves and West Ham, the season is halfway through. If the three bottom teams replicate their performances in the second half of the season over the next 19 matches, they will end up as follows: 18th Burnley 24 pts, GD -48 19th Fulham 22 pts GD -52 20th Huddersfield 20 pts GD -44 If that were to happen, Saints would stay up if our next twenty games result in 2 wins, 3 draws and 15 defeats...as long as we don't worsen our goal difference by more than 34. Ok, these are extreme numbers. And no one would want to cut it as close as this (or assume that it will be this close), but the hurdle to stay up could be pathetically low. And that's the limit of my ambitions just for now! unbelievably daft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint_Ash Posted 3 January, 2019 Share Posted 3 January, 2019 Are we safe yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted 3 January, 2019 Share Posted 3 January, 2019 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/competitions/premier-league/11469196/Premier-League-relegation-battle-how-many-points-do-you-need-to-stay-up.html Bit dated, given its from 2015, but an interesting read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted 3 January, 2019 Share Posted 3 January, 2019 Pumpkin, pumpkin, pumpkin....try to relax and let me explain... The performance of the bottom cluster of teams heading into Xmas was very poor compared to the usual points per game total needed to stay up. In previous “real life” Premier League seasons, there’s even been a time where 40 points was insufficient to stay up. I have to tell you, sweetie pie, that looks very unlikely this year indeed. There has been a mild reversion to the mean in the last few results (two wins for Burnley, a surprise away win for Cardiff) and the points total needed has also ticked up with Huddersfield falling off a cliff by losing all three recent matches against their competitors, honeypie. That does make two more wins now pretty unlikely given that recent, highly odds against, turn of events in the last few matches. But, honeybun, it doesn’t utterly transform things. Somewhere around 28 or 29 points could well be enough to stay up this year, sweetpea. So, a team with a hatful of draws could well stay up on 6 wins. In the “real life” Premier League, my pumpkin pie, draws are worth one point and wins are worth three. So, sweetie, you do need to look at the number of draws, not just the number of wins. So, cherub, a final tally of W 5 D 15 L 18 could just about, at a pinch, keep a team up, even now. More likely though, you probably now need six wins in Saints’ position. Seven wins in total would be extremely likely to secure survival, all things equal. Just to clarify for you, cherrykins; 1. 2 more wins and a load of draws = now pretty damned unlikely to survive given recent results, but not totally out of the question. 2. 3 more wins and a good number of draws = cutting it fine, but pretty fair chance. 3. 4 or more wins = very probably safe, assuming you pick up some draws. Hope that helps you, honeybun, try not to get too stressed. Stay calm and take deep breaths. Don’t why you are trying to defend, what was.... a bizarre position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whelk Posted 3 January, 2019 Share Posted 3 January, 2019 This thread needs shutting. Makes zero sense Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Might be ok come end of April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 3 January, 2019 Author Share Posted 3 January, 2019 Don’t why you are trying to defend, what was.... a bizarre position. How many wins do you think we need to stay up? I'd say it's now possibly 3, maybe 4, given Burnley's two recent wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nta786 Posted 3 January, 2019 Share Posted 3 January, 2019 How many wins do you think we need to stay up? I'd say it's now possibly 3, maybe 4, given Burnley's two recent wins. Ralph thinks 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Lej Posted 3 January, 2019 Share Posted 3 January, 2019 One of the most ridiculous threads I've seen. You could start the season saying 1 win would keep you up if you drew the other 37 games, then make allowances weeky by week as the odds changed when inevitably that didn't happen.....which is pretty much what you're doing with this scenario. Bizarre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 3 January, 2019 Author Share Posted 3 January, 2019 One of the most ridiculous threads I've seen. You could start the season saying 1 win would keep you up if you drew the other 37 games, then make allowances weeky by week as the odds changed when inevitably that didn't happen.....which is pretty much what you're doing with this scenario. Bizarre Not really. If at the halfway point of the season, the bottom five teams all had zero wins, it would be pretty reasonable to posit that you might well stay up with one or two wins by the end of the season. At the halfway point this season, the points per game ratio for the bottom four or five was truly dire. It remains very poor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 3 January, 2019 Author Share Posted 3 January, 2019 Ralph thinks 8. I think he is targeting 8 and good on him. I'm pretty sure he doesn't think we need to win 8 to avoid relegation. He's just aiming rather higher than merely scraping survival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted 3 January, 2019 Share Posted 3 January, 2019 Not really. If at the halfway point of the season, the bottom five teams all had zero wins, it would be pretty reasonable to posit that you might well stay up with one or two wins by the end of the season. At the halfway point this season, the points per game ratio for the bottom four or five was truly dire. It remains very poor. Nonsense. The issue is that you are assuming the first half points/game will be the same as the second, when anyone who follows football knows the bottom clubs pick up in the second half of the season. As an example, i have set out the points gained by week 19 and final points tally for each of the bottom three clubs at week 19 in the last three seasons. Out of 9 teams, only 1 (Sunderland 16/17) did not more than double its week 19 points. In most cases, they significantly exceeded double the week 19 points position. I could look back further, but i think the point is proven. 2017/18: week 19 bottom three: Newcastle United, 15 pts (finished with 44 pts) West Bromwich Albion, 14 pts (finished with 31 pts) Swansea City, 12 pts (finished with 33 pts) 2016/17: week 19 bottom three: Sunderland, 14 (finished with 24) Hull, 13 (finished with 34) Swansea, 12 (finished with 31) 2015/16: week 19 bottom three Newcastle, 17, 37 Sunderland 12, 39 Villa, 8, 17 This took 5 minutes to work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CB Fry Posted 3 January, 2019 Share Posted 3 January, 2019 Fair play that he is still going with this nonsense. Although I see he is slowly sneaking up his target to seven or eight wins to cover himself.... Personally I think 8 will be probably enough this season, based on recent seasons and the fact that the bottom quarter do seem to be getting weaker each season over time. We of course did it with 7 last year but with more draws than anyone in the bottom half has achieved for a long time, so pretty atypical. 7 does not feel comfortable at all to me. Anyway, I'll leave this thread here and let him bury himself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shurlock Posted 3 January, 2019 Share Posted 3 January, 2019 Nonsense. The issue is that you are assuming the first half points/game will be the same as the second, when anyone who follows football knows the bottom clubs pick up in the second half of the season. As an example, i have set out the points gained by week 19 and final points tally for each of the bottom three clubs at week 19 in the last three seasons. Out of 9 teams, only 1 (Sunderland 16/17) did not more than double its week 19 points. In most cases, they significantly exceeded double the week 19 points position. I could look back further, but i think the point is proven. 2017/18: week 19 bottom three: Newcastle United, 15 pts (finished with 44 pts) West Bromwich Albion, 14 pts (finished with 31 pts) Swansea City, 12 pts (finished with 33 pts) 2016/17: week 19 bottom three: Sunderland, 14 (finished with 24) Hull, 13 (finished with 34) Swansea, 12 (finished with 31) 2015/16: week 19 bottom three Newcastle, 17, 37 Sunderland 12, 39 Villa, 8, 17 This took 5 minutes to work out. Out of curiosity, how did teams that were ultimately relegated but were not in the bottom 3 after 19 games fare in the second half of the season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 4 January, 2019 Author Share Posted 4 January, 2019 Nonsense. The issue is that you are assuming the first half points/game will be the same as the second, when anyone who follows football knows the bottom clubs pick up in the second half of the season. As an example, i have set out the points gained by week 19 and final points tally for each of the bottom three clubs at week 19 in the last three seasons. Out of 9 teams, only 1 (Sunderland 16/17) did not more than double its week 19 points. In most cases, they significantly exceeded double the week 19 points position. I could look back further, but i think the point is proven. 2017/18: week 19 bottom three: Newcastle United, 15 pts (finished with 44 pts) West Bromwich Albion, 14 pts (finished with 31 pts) Swansea City, 12 pts (finished with 33 pts) 2016/17: week 19 bottom three: Sunderland, 14 (finished with 24) Hull, 13 (finished with 34) Swansea, 12 (finished with 31) 2015/16: week 19 bottom three Newcastle, 17, 37 Sunderland 12, 39 Villa, 8, 17 This took 5 minutes to work out. Well, if true, you can make a ton of money on the spread betting markets. So if, for example, you think a team making X points per match will make 3x/2 per match in the second half of the season, then I refer you to sportingindex. You'll make a killing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GarrettIvo Posted 4 January, 2019 Share Posted 4 January, 2019 Another mess of a thread. OP started out bizarrely and managed to get even worse. No-one has done themselves favours in the meantime. Close it down and burn it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Lej Posted 4 January, 2019 Share Posted 4 January, 2019 Another mess of a thread. OP started out bizarrely and managed to get even worse. No-one has done themselves favours in the meantime. Close it down and burn it all. Mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustMike Posted 4 January, 2019 Share Posted 4 January, 2019 It's clear to all we need more than 2 wins to stay up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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