SaintBobby Posted 27 December, 2018 Share Posted 27 December, 2018 The bottom end of the league is so dire this season, that you may only need scraps to stay up. For everyone other than ourselves and West Ham, the season is halfway through. If the three bottom teams replicate their performances in the second half of the season over the next 19 matches, they will end up as follows: 18th Burnley 24 pts, GD -48 19th Fulham 22 pts GD -52 20th Huddersfield 20 pts GD -44 If that were to happen, Saints would stay up if our next twenty games result in 2 wins, 3 draws and 15 defeats...as long as we don't worsen our goal difference by more than 34. Ok, these are extreme numbers. And no one would want to cut it as close as this (or assume that it will be this close), but the hurdle to stay up could be pathetically low. And that's the limit of my ambitions just for now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USA SaintsFan Posted 27 December, 2018 Share Posted 27 December, 2018 Correct me me if I'm wrong, but I've got the impression that the struggling teams tend to pick up their form in the second half of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 27 December, 2018 Author Share Posted 27 December, 2018 Correct me me if I'm wrong, but I've got the impression that the struggling teams tend to pick up their form in the second half of the season. Haven't run the numbers on that tbh, but I'm still willing to say you're wrong - even though I'm guessing a bit. There was the old "bottom at Xmas = relegation" rule (broken by WBA when we went down in 2005, I think) Obviously, if you have zero points after 19 games, things can't get worse, getting one draw and 18 defeats is an improvement! But I'd never heard the idea that the weaker teams get better in the second half of the season. If that's true, it implies that the top teams get worse. Possible, I guess. But have never seen any actual evidence for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USA SaintsFan Posted 27 December, 2018 Share Posted 27 December, 2018 Haven't run the numbers on that tbh, but I'm still willing to say you're wrong - even though I'm guessing a bit. There was the old "bottom at Xmas = relegation" rule (broken by WBA when we went down in 2005, I think) Obviously, if you have zero points after 19 games, things can't get worse, getting one draw and 18 defeats is an improvement! But I'd never heard the idea that the weaker teams get better in the second half of the season. If that's true, it implies that the top teams get worse. Possible, I guess. But have never seen any actual evidence for it. I actually did have a look at the numbers, and I think I'm right. Throughout the last six seasons, the bottom three teams combined have finished with about 9.8 points more than they were projected to halfway through the season. I'd guess that that point increase comes at the expense of mid table teams with little to play for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 27 December, 2018 Author Share Posted 27 December, 2018 I actually did have a look at the numbers, and I think I'm right. Throughout the last six seasons, the bottom three teams combined have finished with about 9.8 points more than they were projected to halfway through the season. I'd guess that that point increase comes at the expense of mid table teams with little to play for. Good stat. So, that's about 3 or 4 more points each (9.8 divided by 3)....that would put the bar at c27 points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CB Fry Posted 27 December, 2018 Share Posted 27 December, 2018 (edited) Haven't run the numbers on that tbh, but I'm still willing to say you're wrong - even though I'm guessing a bit. There was the old "bottom at Xmas = relegation" rule (broken by WBA when we went down in 2005, I think) Obviously, if you have zero points after 19 games, things can't get worse, getting one draw and 18 defeats is an improvement! But I'd never heard the idea that the weaker teams get better in the second half of the season. If that's true, it implies that the top teams get worse. Possible, I guess. But have never seen any actual evidence for it.Rather than "run the numbers" did you not consider, just for a second, to look that Premier League finishing table for last season, the season before that and the season before that and maybe go back ten years? How many time have all four teams in the bottom four all ended up on sub-twentty five points? How many teams have stayed in the Premier League with around 25 points? Name them. It's fair to say that the bottom half is getting weaker each season but your scenario seems absurdly unlikely and maybe you should apply a tiny bit of perspective of what actually happens in a real life Premier League season here on planet Earth. Thankfully Ralph won't be taking your view and we will try and win slightly more than two more games. Edited 27 December, 2018 by CB Fry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bad Wolf Posted 27 December, 2018 Share Posted 27 December, 2018 We'll need a darn sight more than that. I reckon another 4 wins, 5 draws should do it. I think the bottom half of the Premier League might well pretty much just stay as it is. (End up as it is now, you understand, not that NOBODY will move at all between now and May). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 27 December, 2018 Author Share Posted 27 December, 2018 Rather than "run the numbers" did you not consider, just for a second, to look that Premier League finishing table for last season, the season before that and the season before that and maybe go back ten years? How many time have all four teams in the bottom four all ended up on sub-twentty five points? How many teams have stayed in the Premier League with around 25 points? Name them. It's fair to say that the bottom half is getting weaker each season but your scenario seems absurdly unlikely and maybe you should apply a tiny bit of perspective of what actually happens in a real life Premier League season here on planet Earth. Thankfully Ralph won't be taking your view and we will try and win slightly more than two more games. You are clearly a cretin, who can barely read or process information. 1. I didn't say our target should be to try and win only 2 games, just that it was just about possible that it would be enough to stay up - at a stretch. 2. No team has ever stayed in the Premier League with 25 points. I think it may have happened with 30. My point was the bottom few teams are especially poor this season. 3. This is happening on planet Earth. I am sorry for your educational retardation. You clearly have an IQ of about 60 or below. Bless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CB Fry Posted 27 December, 2018 Share Posted 27 December, 2018 You are clearly a cretin, who can barely read or process information. 1. I didn't say our target should be to try and win only 2 games, just that it was just about possible that it would be enough to stay up - at a stretch. 2. No team has ever stayed in the Premier League with 25 points. I think it may have happened with 30. My point was the bottom few teams are especially poor this season. 3. This is happening on planet Earth. I am sorry for your educational retardation. You clearly have an IQ of about 60 or below. Bless.You have read your own title of this thread and your own opening post, yes? Nice that your trying to distance yourself from it now. I feel my work is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 27 December, 2018 Author Share Posted 27 December, 2018 (edited) You have read your own title of this thread and your own opening post, yes? Nice that your trying to distance yourself from it now. I feel my work is done. Not only have I read the title. I was even able to write it. It's a headline. A provocation. It ends in a question mark (that's the "?" sign, in case you didn't know, btw). If you are able to read - which is rather doubtful - you will have noticed that it contains content such as "ok, these are extreme numbers"...."no one would want to cut it this close"...."or assume it will be this close". You seem to have derived from this that my suggestion to the Chairman is that we should only target winning two more games this season. You are glad the Chairman won't be "taking (my) view". I can only conclude that you are seriously mentally retarded and have an ability to process words and information that is measurably worse than that of my 4 year old niece. Perhaps even closer to the intellectual level of my cat (he is a bright cat, to be fair) Edited 27 December, 2018 by SaintBobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whelk Posted 27 December, 2018 Share Posted 27 December, 2018 Based on their last two games Man City will get no more points this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted 27 December, 2018 Share Posted 27 December, 2018 2 more wins? Dear god Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 27 December, 2018 Author Share Posted 27 December, 2018 Based on their last two games Man City will get no more points this season. And we will end up on 75 points. I'd suggest basing a projection on a team's last two games is very rash. Basing a projection on their last 19 games is somewhat sounder....(although not foolproof) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whelk Posted 27 December, 2018 Share Posted 27 December, 2018 (edited) .... Edited 27 December, 2018 by whelk Wrong thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stud mark of doom Posted 27 December, 2018 Share Posted 27 December, 2018 I had a look at this a couple of weeks back, before we started winning. I was thinking that this year is awful and would end up with much lower points than previous years at the bottom, at the end of the season. I was quite surprised that the current points total is similar to the past few years. So there does generally seem to be a pick up in the second half of the season for those st the bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bad Wolf Posted 27 December, 2018 Share Posted 27 December, 2018 Tbf two wins may well be enough...Provided we draw every other game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 27 December, 2018 Author Share Posted 27 December, 2018 (edited) Tbf two wins may well be enough...Provided we draw every other game. If we somehow get 2 wins and 18 draws, that would put us on 39 points. Easily enough, surely!? (Didn't we stay up last season on 33...with a 3 point buffer in the end?) Edited 27 December, 2018 by SaintBobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CB Fry Posted 27 December, 2018 Share Posted 27 December, 2018 Not only have I read the title. I was even able to write it. It's a headline. A provocation. It ends in a question mark (that's the "?" sign, in case you didn't know, btw). If you are able to read - which is rather doubtful - you will have noticed that it contains content such as "ok, these are extreme numbers"...."no one would want to cut it this close"...."or assume it will be this close". You seem to have derived from this that my suggestion to the Chairman is that we should only target winning two more games this season. You are glad the Chairman won't be "taking (my) view". I can only conclude that you are seriously mentally retarded and have an ability to process words and information that is measurably worse than that of my 4 year old niece. Perhaps even closer to the intellectual level of my cat (he is a bright cat, to be fair) Yes, I've already explained I understand sweetie. I get it: you've written a provocative headline and scenerio with question marks at the end of sentences and everything. But the very second it gets the reaction a provocative headline is supposed to generate (People respond, provoked) you collapse like a deck of cards. So you immediately disown your own premise and tell us all you don't think any of it will happen or the club need to do anything about it because you don't mean it after all and by the way please don't let anyone think I think we might need to win only two more games because I don't I don't honestly I don't because I put a question mark at the end honest I did. Great thread. Exceptional thread. I think I might go and start one about the preparations the management of the club need to put in place in case the stadium gets ripped into three pieces by an earthquake. I think I'll call it "Is the club an absolute disgrace because they have no published plans for our immediate response to an earthquake??" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John B Posted 27 December, 2018 Share Posted 27 December, 2018 Based on their last two games Man City will get no more points this season. So that means we only want another win as we play City shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suhari Posted 27 December, 2018 Share Posted 27 December, 2018 Interesting stuff. I think it would be incredibly unlikely for 3 teams to finish with less than 25 points, however there are some really poor teams in the mix at the bottom; looks like a crazy-low points tally will keep someone up. Will be interesting to watch as we drive on towards another top 10 finish..... (which is surely...umm.. possibly, possible?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonb Posted 27 December, 2018 Share Posted 27 December, 2018 With regards to the assertion made that bottom-dwelling teams rarely improve over the second half of the season.... I refer you to Saints in the 90s - who regularly had to produce championship winning form to remain in the devision. Indeed, I used to joke that we didn't actually start playing until after Christmas! The above my be an impression embellished by the passing of time... But it certainly felt that way back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CB Fry Posted 27 December, 2018 Share Posted 27 December, 2018 With regards to the assertion made that bottom-dwelling teams rarely improve over the second half of the season.... I refer you to Saints in the 90s - who regularly had to produce championship winning form to remain in the devision. Indeed, I used to joke that we didn't actually start playing until after Christmas! The above my be an impression embellished by the passing of time... But it certainly felt that way back then.You remember correctly: Even West Brom turned it on at the end of last season: three wins, two draws and only one defeat in their last six. Basically top six form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angelman Posted 27 December, 2018 Share Posted 27 December, 2018 2 more wins? Dear god Was something to aspire to under Hughes.....! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted 27 December, 2018 Share Posted 27 December, 2018 Was something to aspire to under Hughes.....! i know we stayed up under hughes and along with the little faith I had in Les and co finding a better alternative to hughes in the summer, did we ever look decent under him for a run of games? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
egg Posted 27 December, 2018 Share Posted 27 December, 2018 Of course we won't stay up with 2 more wins. We need a lot more than that. Nobody has ever stayed up with 25 points, and doubtless it'll never happen. We'll stay up though, I'm. (now) confident of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nta786 Posted 27 December, 2018 Share Posted 27 December, 2018 i know we stayed up under hughes and along with the little faith I had in Les and co finding a better alternative to hughes in the summer, did we ever look decent under him for a run of games? certainly not this season- spoke a good game though! but the last 8 games with him at the back end of last season was a major upgrade on Pellegrino... we had a 2-0 lead vs Chelsea, should have beaten Everton away if it were not for that deflection (i think anyway, plus the ref allowed a free kick taken 10 yards ahead?!)... as well as beating bournemouth and more crucially Swansea, we put in a very decent performance against City at home (hit the post etc, was well in it tbf)- and was it not 2-2 at one point against Arsenal at the Emirates? However, not saying it was all perfect, that WHU 3-0 defeat was one of the worst away days in the past season or 2, and Leicester away was quite drab but a point there proved crucial in the end anyway. The mistake wasn't hiring Hughes after Pellegrino, mistake was giving him a new 3 year contract. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted 27 December, 2018 Share Posted 27 December, 2018 certainly not this season, but the last 8 games with him at the back end of last season was a major upgrade on Pellegrino... we had a 2-0 lead vs Chelsea, should have beaten Everton away if it were not for that deflection (i think anyway, plus the ref allowed a free kick taken 10 yards ahead?!)... as well as beating bournemouth and more crucially Swansea, we put in a very decent performance against City at home (hit the post etc, was well in it tbf). However, not saying it was all perfect, that WHU 3-0 defeat was one of the worst away days in the past season or 2, and Leicester away was quite drab but a point there proved crucial in the end anyway. The mistake wasn't hiring Hughes after Pellegrino, mistake was giving him a new 3 year contract. I seem to remember a little delay in confirming Hughes in the summer. I wonder if that was because not all at SFC were on board with him being awarded the deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nta786 Posted 27 December, 2018 Share Posted 27 December, 2018 I seem to remember a little delay in confirming Hughes in the summer. I wonder if that was because not all at SFC were on board with him being awarded the deal? yeah exactly, maybe hiring Hughes and the terrible results that followed was the straw that broke the camels back and saw Reed fired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stug76 Posted 27 December, 2018 Share Posted 27 December, 2018 Yes, I've already explained I understand sweetie. I get it: you've written a provocative headline and scenerio with question marks at the end of sentences and everything. But the very second it gets the reaction a provocative headline is supposed to generate (People respond, provoked) you collapse like a deck of cards. So you immediately disown your own premise and tell us all you don't think any of it will happen or the club need to do anything about it because you don't mean it after all and by the way please don't let anyone think I think we might need to win only two more games because I don't I don't honestly I don't because I put a question mark at the end honest I did. Great thread. Exceptional thread. I think I might go and start one about the preparations the management of the club need to put in place in case the stadium gets ripped into three pieces by an earthquake. I think I'll call it "Is the club an absolute disgrace because they have no published plans for our immediate response to an earthquake??"It's amazing how much your desire to belittle people trumps your own self awareness. Maybe take a little time to try and see what's being written before jumping in next time, and you might not look so stupid so often. Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ultimatt Posted 27 December, 2018 Share Posted 27 December, 2018 Late season the mid table teams will pack up shop while the relegation battlers go all out. I wouldn't feel safe on anything starting with a 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kyle04 Posted 27 December, 2018 Share Posted 27 December, 2018 Without indulging in unnecessary personal abuse, I disagree with the OP's suggestion. The bottom 4 certainly look as bad as we were under Hughes. Hudds look like they will be adrift at some point and won't make it to 30 points IMO, Cardiff and Burnley are not PL quality but will pick up points at home here and there. Fulham are improving and have been unlucky in the past 2 games. Newcastle are erratic but will probably survive despite Rafa's assertion that it will be a "miracle" if he keeps them up. My prediction is 32 points to stay up, Saints 14th. Hudds, Burnley and Cardiff to do down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted 27 December, 2018 Share Posted 27 December, 2018 The season of goodwill didn’t last very long Saintbobby and CB Fry enjoyed a whole day of love and peace and as soon as the 25th was over, thought **** it, let’s get back to normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 27 December, 2018 Author Share Posted 27 December, 2018 Yes, I've already explained I understand sweetie. I get it: you've written a provocative headline and scenerio with question marks at the end of sentences and everything. But the very second it gets the reaction a provocative headline is supposed to generate (People respond, provoked) you collapse like a deck of cards. So you immediately disown your own premise and tell us all you don't think any of it will happen or the club need to do anything about it because you don't mean it after all and by the way please don't let anyone think I think we might need to win only two more games because I don't I don't honestly I don't because I put a question mark at the end honest I did. Great thread. Exceptional thread. I think I might go and start one about the preparations the management of the club need to put in place in case the stadium gets ripped into three pieces by an earthquake. I think I'll call it "Is the club an absolute disgrace because they have no published plans for our immediate response to an earthquake??" Oh dear. The cretin can’t even distinguish between a premise and a question. What a total retard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Chalet Posted 27 December, 2018 Share Posted 27 December, 2018 Debate the topic by all means, but please stop the personal insults. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 27 December, 2018 Author Share Posted 27 December, 2018 (edited) Emailed the question (would only two wins be enough for Saints to stay up?) to a mate who mucks around with the stats and methodology on the 538.com predictions website. His answer is “yes, probably, but with a proviso”. If those two wins came against the bottom three (and we drew with the other), then in those circumstances the chances of staying up are higher than 50%. Of course, once you cap the number of predicted wins, the chance of draws in other matches goes up accordingly. So, we’d probably be looking at something like W2 D9 L9. On expected outcomes, he says only three wins - against any opponents - would give Saints a >50% chance of staying up (again, a lot of draws would be the corollary). Only four wins and the % goes to about 75%. So, the answer the opening question could well be “not likely to be enough, but just about possible”. Rather more likely than an earthquake hitting St Mary’s, I’m sure we can all agree. Edited 27 December, 2018 by SaintBobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batterseasaint Posted 27 December, 2018 Share Posted 27 December, 2018 I seem to remember a little delay in confirming Hughes in the summer. I wonder if that was because not all at SFC were on board with him being awarded the deal? Yep, correct. Les Reed was against appointing Hughes and made a request to the board that he should go into the market and at least see who else around Europe might be available. He was roundly told to **** off by the board and they promptly gave Hughes a 3yr contract. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turkish Posted 27 December, 2018 Share Posted 27 December, 2018 Yep, correct. Les Reed was against appointing Hughes and made a request to the board that he should go into the market and at least see who else around Europe might be available. He was roundly told to **** off by the board and they promptly gave Hughes a 3yr contract. Yep, Reed had heard of Ralphs availability and wanted to speak to him and a couple of others before making the decision but the board felt they owed it to Hughes to give him the deal full time. That was the final straw in the breakdown between Reed and the board and a parting of ways was agreed. Clearly the board have now realised the error of their ways and done what Les wanted to do in the summer and brought Ralph in. Interesting to note many of Reeds signings over the past few seasons have started to deliver too. Still our loss is the FAs gain. Not that any on here would believe it after all the mongboard myth that's peddled out is that everything that went wrong was because of Reed and all that went right was despite of him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Chalet Posted 27 December, 2018 Share Posted 27 December, 2018 Yep, Reed had heard of Ralphs availability and wanted to speak to him and a couple of others before making the decision but the board felt they owed it to Hughes to give him the deal full time. That was the final straw in the breakdown between Reed and the board and a parting of ways was agreed. Clearly the board have now realised the error of their ways and done what Les wanted to do in the summer and brought Ralph in. Interesting to note many of Reeds signings over the past few seasons have started to deliver too. Still our loss is the FAs gain. Not that any on here would believe it after all the mongboard myth that's peddled out is that everything that went wrong was because of Reed and all that went right was despite of him. Hughes came to us on a mercenary gig. We owed him nothing but the alleged £1m bonus for keeping us up. Personally I think Les did well for us over a number of years but ultimately paid the price by choosing, and sticking so long with Pellegrino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
positivepete Posted 27 December, 2018 Share Posted 27 December, 2018 No team has been relegated with 11 wins, I think we should aim for that ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danjosaint Posted 27 December, 2018 Share Posted 27 December, 2018 See i heard it was other way round, Reed wanted Hughes and was one of his only allies hence Reed then Hughes went in relatively quick succession Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Munster Posted 27 December, 2018 Share Posted 27 December, 2018 Yep, Reed had heard of Ralphs availability and wanted to speak to him and a couple of others before making the decision but the board felt they owed it to Hughes to give him the deal full time. That was the final straw in the breakdown between Reed and the board and a parting of ways was agreed. Clearly the board have now realised the error of their ways and done what Les wanted to do in the summer and brought Ralph in. Interesting to note many of Reeds signings over the past few seasons have started to deliver too. Still our loss is the FAs gain. Not that any on here would believe it after all the mongboard myth that's peddled out is that everything that went wrong was because of Reed and all that went right was despite of him. In the board's defense, Reed brought in the Clown, and stuck with him for months after he should've been given the boot, and on top of that let him spend almost £20 million to bring in his favourite donkey. Throw in the Forster contract, and other fiascos, and you can't blame them for not trusting him again. Having said that, giving Hughes a 3 year contract wasn't the brightest thing to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalek2003 Posted 27 December, 2018 Share Posted 27 December, 2018 Personally I won't feel happy until we reach 40 points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALWAYS_SFC Posted 27 December, 2018 Share Posted 27 December, 2018 Personally I won't feel happy until we reach 40 points. So you werent happy last season that we stayed up.... thought so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalek2003 Posted 28 December, 2018 Share Posted 28 December, 2018 So you werent happy last season that we stayed up.... thought so I was happy we stayed up but always feel that the sooner we get to 4 points the better. TBH, if we finished 17th for the next 5 seasons I would be happy as would the Board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALWAYS_SFC Posted 28 December, 2018 Share Posted 28 December, 2018 I was happy we stayed up but always feel that the sooner we get to 4 points the better. TBH, if we finished 17th for the next 5 seasons I would be happy as would the Board. You are bit behind mate, but that's normal for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SFC Forever Posted 29 December, 2018 Share Posted 29 December, 2018 I see both Fulham and Cardiff won today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Munster Posted 30 December, 2018 Share Posted 30 December, 2018 I see both Fulham and Cardiff won today Ok, only 3 more wins needed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonnyboy Posted 30 December, 2018 Share Posted 30 December, 2018 Is this the first season the OP has been following football and Saints? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CB Fry Posted 31 December, 2018 Share Posted 31 December, 2018 Burnley now on four wins so only need one more and they're safe. Cardiff already on the magic five wins so can already relax and start planning next season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CB Fry Posted 2 January, 2019 Share Posted 2 January, 2019 Burnley join Cardiff on the magic five-wins-to-stay-up totaliser. Safe as houses according to someone's mate or something. The only teams in relegation contention now seem to be us, Huddersfield, Newcastle and Fulham. Tough times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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