Squad Value

[spyinthesky]

Appreciate this topic has been raised before but early part of the season it could be argued that our squad (minus VVD) could possibly be valued at around the £200m mark based on the inflated values of the premiership, length of contracts, relatively low average age plus throwing purchase price into the mix as a guide.

 

I reckon the combined figure could possibly be down near the £100m mark now, with the Championship beckoning.

 

There is the strong possibility that one or two of our expensive foreign 'stars' eg Carrillo, Boufal, possibly Gabbiadini could be let go for free (like Ramirez,Osvaldo, Delgado etc in the past) to save wages.

 

Hopefully we wont be in the same state as West Brom who's new Chief Executive reckons he is shocked with the parlous state of their finances

[Matthew Le God]

I reckon the combined figure could possibly be down near the £100m mark now, with the Championship beckoning.

 

It is significantly more than £100m. Some people on this forum underestimate the current crazy transfer market, players who have only ever played in the Championship are being sold for £15m. If relegation happens it doesn't mean player value falls off a cliff, Sunderland were relegated last season and got £30m for their keeper last summer!

Edited 3 April, 2018 by Matthew Le God

[shurlock]

It is significantly more than £100m. Some people on this forum underestimate the current transfer market, players who have only ever played in the Championship are being sold for £15m. If relegation happens it doesn't mean player value falls off a cliff, Sunderland were relegated last season and got £30m for their keeper last summer!

 

If we go down, you're in a for a rude awakening.

[Matthew Le God]

If we go down, you're in a for a rude awakening.

 

Nope I think you are.

 

1) Have players that haven't played higher than the Championship been sold for £15m?

2) Did relegated Sunderland sell their keeper for £30m? His value didn't collapse due to his team being relegated.

 

A £100m valuation equals an average value for a squad of 25 players at £4m. That is ridiculous if you think pretty much any 1st team Saints player is worth £4m, let alone the average being £4m.

 

Our loaned out young players like Gallagher and Reed would likely fetch more than £4m if sold, let alone the current first team squad.

Edited 3 April, 2018 by Matthew Le God

[shurlock]

Nope I think you are.

 

1) Have players that haven't played higher than the Championship been sold for £15m?

2) Did relegated Sunderland sell their keeper for £30m?

 

A £100m valuation equals an average value for a squad of 25 players at £4m. That is ridiculous if you think pretty much any Saints player is worth £4m, let alone the average being £4m.

 

I didn't put an overall figure on it. But the idea we're going to have a long list of suitors for our players, pushing up prices, allowing us to bank £20m here, £20m there is flawed.

[Matthew Le God]

I didn't put an overall figure on it. But the idea we're going to have a long list of suitors for our players, pushing up prices, allowing us to bank £20m here, £20m there is flawed.

 

The opening post and my initial post was about the overall squad value being close to £100m, not how much we could raise this summer.

 

Obviously the season has been poor, but I think we have a lot of underperforming players who would still retain huge value. The average value per player would be a lot higher than the £4m the opening post suggests, I don't see how it is unreasonable to suggest that.

[adrian lord]

Spoilt goods. None have covered themselves in glory and the supposed stepping-stoners (boufal/hojberg/lemina/cerdric etc) will have seen their price stagnate at best. The massed ranks of crocks and journeymen are essentially worthless. The bubble is bursting except for the very, very best talent.

[Ultimatt]

Squad value is the reason we're in this mess. The board started making it their #1 priority rather than 1st team strength so they could pat themselves on the back each financial year figures release and claim their bonuses. We started almost explicitly buying players that were out of favour/backups with their clubs because they were cheaper and low risk(unlikely to lose more value) and we gave long contracts/payrises to every player regardless of whether they were actually good or not.

A club our size doesn't have the money or the stature for 2 good players for each position. They're kidding themselves with this quantity over quality crap.

[shurlock]

Squad value is the reason we're in this mess. The board started making it their #1 priority rather than 1st team strength so they could pat themselves on the back each financial year figures release and claim their bonuses. We started almost explicitly buying players that were out of favour/backups with their clubs because they were cheaper and low risk(unlikely to lose more value) and we gave long contracts/payrises to every player regardless of whether they were actually good or not.

A club our size doesn't have the money or the stature for 2 good players for each position. They're kidding themselves with this quantity over quality crap.

 

In the lingo, Les and the club have fallen into a value trap. Warren Buffett Les ain't.

Edited 3 April, 2018 by shurlock

[Kingsbridge Saint]

I heard the club were seriously considering an offer of £4.50 and a signed picture of Bobby Charlton for Tadic.

[labibs]

.

 

There is the strong possibility that one or two of our expensive foreign 'stars' eg Carrillo, Boufal, possibly Gabbiadini could be let go for free (like Ramirez,Osvaldo, Delgado etc in the past) to save wages.

 

 

You've just made this up haven't you? Do you really think we will let Boufal and Gabbi go for free?

[Batman]

You've just made this up haven't you? Do you really think we will let Boufal and Gabbi go for free?

 

Loaned out, yes very much so

[Saint Garrett]

Appreciate this topic has been raised before but early part of the season it could be argued that our squad (minus VVD) could possibly be valued at around the £200m mark based on the inflated values of the premiership, length of contracts, relatively low average age plus throwing purchase price into the mix as a guide.

 

I reckon the combined figure could possibly be down near the £100m mark now, with the Championship beckoning.

 

There is the strong possibility that one or two of our expensive foreign 'stars' eg Carrillo, Boufal, possibly Gabbiadini could be let go for free (like Ramirez,Osvaldo, Delgado etc in the past) to save wages.

 

Hopefully we wont be in the same state as West Brom who's new Chief Executive reckons he is shocked with the parlous state of their finances

 

Don't think it will be that low, but certainly will drop in value, especially if we can't afford their wages...apparently we have the highest wage bill outside the top 6?!

 

And on MLG's note about Pickford - he's one of the best goalkeeper prospects around, and he's young and english.

 

Can't see us bringing in much for

- Tadic

- Boufal

- Gabbiadini

- Carrillo

 

Would probably make our money back on Hojbjerg & Lemina.

[Rebel]

Davis, Redmond and Long are part of the problem. Whetrher we stay up or go down those 3 need to go.

 

Davis is past it at the top level and has been for more than a season. He can't defend and he can't create - and he'd struggle with the physicality and energy of the Championship. Its time for him to retire to Rangers. Redmond - maybe the Championship is his level - but he's been truly awful at times. Long - he's a great athlete - but he's can't score and he's supposed to be a striker. Scottish football and Celtic beckon I hope.

 

Clasie wouldn't cope with the physicality of the Championship either.

 

I could see Hojberg staying and thriving in the Championship alongside Reed and JWP. Its the young players like those and Gallagher, McQueen, Targett, Sims, Hesketh we need to keep and build a new team around.

[Saint Troy]

Loaned out, yes very much so

 

Im not sure if this counts as free or not. If there is no loan fee then it is free..... in which case its ridiculous to think we couldnt sell manolo for more than free.

 

If it is loans and there is a loan fee then its not really free

[saint1977]

We're going to let big name players leave free to save wages are we? When they're in contract? Where does this happen?

 

Look at the price of Championship players now. Other clubs will see past performance, potential etc and the majority of our squad will get their moves. Can see us bringing in a huge amount of money in the summer overall for 10-15 players.

 

Just hope that means we show some ambition and keep players who are on high wages but would help us get back up, like Davis, Austin, Long, perhaps Redmond. Even someone like Clasie, set to leave, probably decent wage, but he could be a real asset in the Championship and much needed with Hojbjerg, Romeu and Lemina gone.

 

The only one I can see this happening with is Forster. Allegedly on 90k a week but the worst top flight regular keeper I can ever remember at Saints, once his defensive shield of Morgan and Victor left. Another club won’t pay him that as second or third choice, so better to offer low fee or no fee to avoid getting killed on FFP. He’d eat big chunks of the parachute payments and he’s dreadful. Might help one of the top 4 by being English and then pray their first and second choices don’t get injured.

 

Carrillo would be a loan, they won’t write off that soon but another gross misconduct but of business by Les.

 

Only players I want to see retained are McCarthy, Targett, McQueen, Hesketh, Stephens and Sims. Maybe Austin. Can supplement with another 18 other new signings who might not be as illustrious in name but will hopefully have some character, heart, pace and strength.

[SFC Forever]

Whatever happens please let us do most of our buying well before the pre-season begins.

[Chez]

Nope I think you are.

 

1) Have players that haven't played higher than the Championship been sold for £15m?

2) Did relegated Sunderland sell their keeper for £30m? His value didn't collapse due to his team being relegated.

 

A £100m valuation equals an average value for a squad of 25 players at £4m. That is ridiculous if you think pretty much any 1st team Saints player is worth £4m, let alone the average being £4m.

 

Our loaned out young players like Gallagher and Reed would likely fetch more than £4m if sold, let alone the current first team squad.

1) Players on huge wages often are sold for £0.

2) Actually they sold Pickford for £25m, with the possibility of it rising to £30m. But the key thing is that was after a top season. Have we anyone having a top season?

 

 

You may well be right about being able to recoup more than £100m, but we shall see. Whilst we are in the Premiership our players have one value. When we drop out and the clubs faces close to a £100m drop in income, they have a very different value. Assets can quickly become liabilities. The £80k a week Forster wage for example. Would you let him walk for free in the summer? The club might have to if he hasn't got wage reduction clause in the event of a relegation

 

Sunderland are mentioned above. Just for balance, lets look at their business since going down:

Defoe with a year left on his contract allowed to leave for nothing.

Jack Rodwell signed for £10m, club has offered to allow him to leave for nothing. No takers so paying him Prem wages to play for u21s

Wahbi Khazri signed for £9m, couldn't sell him in the summer so sent out on loan

Fabio Borini signed for £8m, couldn't sell him in the summer so sent out on loan

Didier Ndong signed for £13.5m, couldn't sell him in the summer so sent out on loan

Papy Djilobodji signed for £8m, couldn't sell him in the summer so sent out on loan

Jermaine Lens signed for £8m. Sold for £6m.

Minonne bought for £1.3m in 2013 sold for £2m.

and thats it. No other sales.

 

Perhaps many of our players are seen in better lights due to previous seasons successes, so we will fair better in the transfer market, but if we fail to win a game before we go down, I just wonder how our players will be seen then?

[SFC Forever]

Sad thing is that a couple of those players might well have stopped their slide down to League 1. The money mad world is destroying the game.

[spyinthesky]

1) Players on huge wages often are sold for £0.

2) Actually they sold Pickford for £25m, with the possibility of it rising to £30m. But the key thing is that was after a top season. Have we anyone having a top season?

 

 

You may well be right about being able to recoup more than £100m, but we shall see. Whilst we are in the Premiership our players have one value. When we drop out and the clubs faces close to a £100m drop in income, they have a very different value. Assets can quickly become liabilities. The £80k a week Forster wage for example. Would you let him walk for free in the summer? The club might have to if he hasn't got wage reduction clause in the event of a relegation

 

Sunderland are mentioned above. Just for balance, lets look at their business since going down:

Defoe with a year left on his contract allowed to leave for nothing.

Jack Rodwell signed for £10m, club has offered to allow him to leave for nothing. No takers so paying him Prem wages to play for u21s

Wahbi Khazri signed for £9m, couldn't sell him in the summer so sent out on loan

Fabio Borini signed for £8m, couldn't sell him in the summer so sent out on loan

Didier Ndong signed for £13.5m, couldn't sell him in the summer so sent out on loan

Papy Djilobodji signed for £8m, couldn't sell him in the summer so sent out on loan

Jermaine Lens signed for £8m. Sold for £6m.

Minonne bought for £1.3m in 2013 sold for £2m.

and thats it. No other sales.

 

Perhaps many of our players are seen in better lights due to previous seasons successes, so we will fair better in the transfer market, but if we fail to win a game before we go down, I just wonder how our players will be seen then?

 

 

Excellent post and sums up the uncertainty about trying to establish player value post relegation.

 

I reckon our current squad cost approx £175m to assemble.

However it is difficult to assess 'value' at the end of the season without knowing full details on wages post relegation and interest from other clubs.

The likes of Carrillo, Boufal and Gabbiadini are likely to have few suitors at the money we paid

[Chez]

Im not sure if this counts as free or not. If there is no loan fee then it is free..... in which case its ridiculous to think we couldnt sell manolo for more than free.

 

If it is loans and there is a loan fee then its not really free

 

you may have to loan players out with no fee AND pay a percentage of their wages. Take for example Jody Clasie. Are Club Brugge in a position to pay all of his Premiership wages, even with their CL and UEFA qualification? You mentioned Manolo. I have no idea what he earns, but as our record signing at the time you know it will be serious wedge and more than he got at Napoli. It's that higher wage that will put people off.

 

Wages are the problem. There is not a single player at the club that would not be courted by another side, all be it some at a lower level, but can any of those clubs pay what we are paying? If there are 40-50% reductions then you have a chance of someone taking them, without that, you can be stuck with many - usually the ones you don't want.

 

I'd venture we'd get a fee for Bertrand and possibly Romeu and JWP, as he gets good press, maybe Lemina too, who shows flashes of brilliance between flashes of poor judgement, but beyond that I am not sure who other teams will value enough to offer to match their current wages. If you only have to match wages that have been cut in half, this presents a slightly different picture.

[teamsaint]

there is also the issue of outstanding transfer fee payments on our expensive signings.

Must be very significant in the cases of Lemina and Carillo, for example.

[Rebel]

1) Players on huge wages often are sold for £0.

2) Actually they sold Pickford for £25m, with the possibility of it rising to £30m. But the key thing is that was after a top season. Have we anyone having a top season?

 

 

You may well be right about being able to recoup more than £100m, but we shall see. Whilst we are in the Premiership our players have one value. When we drop out and the clubs faces close to a £100m drop in income, they have a very different value. Assets can quickly become liabilities. The £80k a week Forster wage for example. Would you let him walk for free in the summer? The club might have to if he hasn't got wage reduction clause in the event of a relegation

 

Sunderland are mentioned above. Just for balance, lets look at their business since going down:

Defoe with a year left on his contract allowed to leave for nothing.

Jack Rodwell signed for £10m, club has offered to allow him to leave for nothing. No takers so paying him Prem wages to play for u21s

Wahbi Khazri signed for £9m, couldn't sell him in the summer so sent out on loan

Fabio Borini signed for £8m, couldn't sell him in the summer so sent out on loan

Didier Ndong signed for £13.5m, couldn't sell him in the summer so sent out on loan

Papy Djilobodji signed for £8m, couldn't sell him in the summer so sent out on loan

Jermaine Lens signed for £8m. Sold for £6m.

Minonne bought for £1.3m in 2013 sold for £2m.

and thats it. No other sales.

 

Perhaps many of our players are seen in better lights due to previous seasons successes, so we will fair better in the transfer market, but if we fail to win a game before we go down, I just wonder how our players will be seen then?

 

Rodwell for one didn't have a relegation clause in his contract which is why they can't shift him - so I am guessing its the same for a lot of the players you have listed. The big mistake Sunderland made was signing him from City and paying him the same stupid wage - which explains why no one else was interested in him at the time. And I think the wages issues explains why Walcott ended up at Everton and not Saints.

 

I am hoping all of our players have a relegation clause cutting their wages by 50% or thereabouts otherwise you are right - other than Bertrand, Austin, possibly Cedric and maybe Lemina we might have trouble getting rid of a lot of them.

 

But finances and money seem to be the key drivers for our current regime so I'd be very surprised if the players didn't have relegation clauses - and that means we should be able to get rid of players like Clasie, Redmond, Gabbiadini, Tadic and Boufal permanently if we go down. We might not get big fees for them though.

 

I think we are going to lose a lot of money on players though.

[SW5 SAINT]

I can't imagine that players like Carillo, Hoegt or Gabbiadini would ever have consented to come, if Southampton had insisted on a clause cutting their wages in the event of relegation...........

[hackedoff]

I suppose it is too much to ask that Liverpool might want any of this lot.

[Charlie Wayman]

Davis, Redmond and Long are part of the problem. Whetrher we stay up or go down those 3 need to go.

 

Davis is past it at the top level and has been for more than a season. He can't defend and he can't create - and he'd struggle with the physicality and energy of the Championship. Its time for him to retire to Rangers. Redmond - maybe the Championship is his level - but he's been truly awful at times. Long - he's a great athlete - but he's can't score and he's supposed to be a striker. Scottish football and Celtic beckon I hope.

 

Clasie wouldn't cope with the physicality of the Championship either.

 

I could see Hojberg staying and thriving in the Championship alongside Reed and JWP. Its the young players like those and Gallagher, McQueen, Targett, Sims, Hesketh we need to keep and build a new team around.

 

 

Well, yes, if you see our future a a League 1 side. None of those lads are much good whichever way you spin it.