Relegation - The Run In...

[beatlesaint]

Saints: Chelsea (H), Leicester (A), Bournemouth (H), Everton(A), Swansea(A), Man City (A)

Swansea: Everton (H), Man City (A), Chelsea (H), B'Mouth (A), No Match, Stoke (H)

CP: BHA (H), Watford (A), Leicester (H), Stoke (A), No Match, WBA (H)

Hudd: Watford (H), No match, Everton (H), Man City (A), Chelsea (A), Ars (H)

 

Sooo if we assume nothing against Chelsea, and we ASSUME 7 pts over the next 4 matches, we'd be at 35.

If Hudd only beats either Watford or Everton for 3 more pts, we'd be tied but have a much better GD so we'd win

If CP beat Stoke and WBA they'd have 37 and be clear of us

If Swansea beats Stoke they'd have 35 pts and it would come down to GD (we are both tied)

 

I think our best path is to hope Stoke continues losing and Huddersfield loses to Watford. In theory, especially if they lose to Watford, Huddersfield could lose out. That would mean that we'd just need 1 win and 1 draw to pass them because they're GD sucks. In any scenario we have to win more matches to be safe than anyone else, and we have two really tough matches in Man City and Chelsea.

 

we play Swansea but Swansea don’t play us ?

[ooh it's a corner]

we play Swansea but Swansea don’t play us ?

 

 

We'd still only manage a nil-nil...

[adysaint]

Saints: Chelsea (H), Leicester (A), Bournemouth (H), Everton(A), Swansea(A), Man City (A)

Swansea: Everton (H), Man City (A), Chelsea (H), B'Mouth (A), Saints (H), Stoke (H)

CP: BHA (H), Watford (A), Leicester (H), Stoke (A), No Match, WBA (H)

Hudd: Watford (H), No match, Everton (H), Man City (A), Chelsea (A), Ars (H)

 

Sooo if we assume nothing against Chelsea, and we ASSUME 7 pts over the next 4 matches, we'd be at 35.

If Hudd only beats either Watford or Everton for 3 more pts, we'd be tied but have a much better GD so we'd win

If CP beat Stoke and WBA they'd have 37 and be clear of us

If Swansea beats Stoke they'd have 35 pts and it would come down to GD (we are both tied)

 

I think our best path is to hope Stoke continues losing and Huddersfield loses to Watford. In theory, especially if they lose to Watford, Huddersfield could lose out. That would mean that we'd just need 1 win and 1 draw to pass them because they're GD sucks. In any scenario we have to win more matches to be safe than anyone else, and we have two really tough matches in Man City and Chelsea.

 

The ones that scare me are anyone playing Watford and Bournemouth - they are in deckchair territory.

 

CPA will surely get at least 2 wins.

Hudd I fully expect to beat Watford - and then which Everton turns up will decide it for them I think. Having said that - they had homes against Palace and Swansea which they got 1 point from.

Swansea is a funny one - maybe the Carvahal bounce has worn off. Again, which Everton shows up there and obvs the result vs us will be the key.

 

We prob need to beat Chelsea, hard as it sounds - imagine the lift Hudd, Swansea and Palace would get (all at home, all winnable) if we've lost at lunchtime?

[adysaint]

Oh, and the other thing that's pooping me off is the wins against the big 6.

 

Minus 6 off Swansea for beating Arsenal and Liverpool (like how did that even happen?)

Minus 6 off Bournemouth for beating Arsenal and Chelsea

Minus 3 off Palace beating Chelsea

Minus 3 off Hudd for Man U handing it to them

Minus 6 off Watford beating Arsenal and Chelsea

 

And imagine how the table would look. (I can't be bothered to work it out - but it would look better)

 

I want us to win a game that all those thought we'd lose just to see how they like it. Really poops me off.

[Baird of the land]

We need to beat Chelsea otherwise we really will look well adrift as Hudd & palace have very winnable home games.

[Forester]

It is all about Udders’ two home games against Watford and Everton this next fortnight as I don’t see them collecting a single point after those two games. Massive opportunity if they fail to win either.

[Lord Duckhunter]

It is all about Udders’ two home games against Watford and Everton this next fortnight as I don’t see them collecting a single point after those two games. Massive opportunity if they fail to win either.

 

We need to ramp up the pressure by beating Chelsea. Lose that and Watford home looks a lot easier. Imagine the atmosphere if we’ve lost just before they kick off. On the other hand, imagine the disappointment if we’ve beat them.

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Lord Duckhunter]

This afternoon I had a couple of noggins with a Huddersfield supporter who went to Brighton to watch them . He reckons they were knackered and have run out of steam. Said they were there for the taking but a combination of a draw being a decent result for Brighton & them having a bloke sent off meant Brighton let them off the hook. He's convinced they're going down and we're too good to go down. I desperately tried to convince him that we're shiete, but he said they're defo running out of steam. Just goes to show we're not alone. Most supporters down the bottom are convinced their teams are going down.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[SFC Forever]

Such is the feeling of fans in most danger of the drop

[Stud mark of doom]

The ones that scare me are anyone playing Watford and Bournemouth - they are in deckchair territory.

 

 

Bournemouth have lost twice in the last 14 premiership games.

[Stud mark of doom]

Most supporters down the bottom are convinced their teams are going down.

 

I suspect it’s just fans of Huddersfield and Saints (and stoke and WBA obvs).

 

Think all the rest are safe barring an amazing change round in fortunes.

[Lord Duckhunter]

I suspect it’s just fans of Huddersfield and Saints (and stoke and WBA obvs).

 

Think all the rest are safe barring an amazing change round in fortunes.

 

I'd imagine Swansea fans are pretty worried

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[SFC Forever]

Whereas last time we nose dived it was down to us nearly going under before Markus rescued us. This time we only have the management to hold to count. I know we had management issues last time as well but there wasn't any money available. This time we had the opportunity to buy players in to rescue us and didn't.

[striker]

Well we pretty much need to get 9 pts out of the next 4 matches or we're down. Really should have had 4 pts from Arsenal and Chelsea.

[MongoNeil]

Play like we did today against Leicester, Bournemouth and Swansea and we may yet still have a chance. The question is does the gap in the table now start to effect the players mentally? If their heads now drop we're as good as down. Can Hughes earn his bonus and instil a bit of belief for the remaining fixtures? There will be plenty of twists and turns yet before the season is over that's for sure. Wouldn't be surprised to see Brighton dragged into the mix yet.

[DT]

I think it's over but at least I saw some hope today. If only we had got rid of Pellegrino when we should have. Last December

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[SaintTex]

i am going to force myself to be optimistic, but let's say we beat Swansea

 

Swansea has 33 points with 4 games left:

City L

Chelsea L

Bournemouth D

Stoke W

 

finishes with 37 points

 

Saints have 31 points with 4 games left:

Leicester L

Bournemouth W

Everton W

City D

 

finishes with 38 points

(or even lose to City and win on possible goal differential at 37 points)

 

---

 

the other optimistic scenario is Huddlesfield loses their remaining 4 matches (City, Arsenal, Chelsea, and Everton) & ends with 35 points

 

we end up

Leicester L

Swansea W

Bournemouth W

Everton D

City L

 

and Saints end up with 35 points and win on goal differential.

 

again, these are purely optimistic, but not entirely implausible scenarios. of course this is also all predicated on Stoke continuing to lose.

[Saint_lambden]

The only team I can now see us finishing above (and only on goal difference) is Brighton. That's if we get 7 points from the last 5 and they don't get a single point.

 

Our games:

 

Leicester - Win

Bournemouth - Win

Everton - Loss

Swansea - Draw

M City - Loss

 

Their games:

 

Spurs (Home)

Burnley (Away)

Man United (Home)

Man City (Away)

Liverpool (Away)

 

Unlikely all round. We're 95% down and it's a travesty that we'll be in Championship next season.

[Super_Uwe]

The only team I can now see us finishing above (and only on goal difference) is Brighton. That's if we get 7 points from the last 5 and they don't get a single point.

 

Our games:

 

Leicester - Win

Bournemouth - Win

Everton - Loss

Swansea - Draw

M City - Loss

 

Their games:

 

Spurs (Home)

Burnley (Away)

Man United (Home)

Man City (Away)

Liverpool (Away)

 

Unlikely all round. We're 95% down and it's a travesty that we'll be in Championship next season.

 

Yep, I agree with you. Today's results have more or less sealed our fate. Even if we win 3 out of 5 to get to 37 points I can't believe all the other teams above us will not reach that amount before the end of the season.

 

The Swansea game is an absolute must win to stand any chance IMO.

[Forester]

I felt prior today, even if we lost to Chelsea, that we could catch Udders because of their run in. But that Ince stoppage time goal is a hammer blow I think.

 

Brighton now look the best bet to catch, followed by Udders and Swansea. I don’t think it is all over just yet, but whereas we would have been looking for a point at Leicester and Everton now I think we will need to win one of them as well as beating Bournemouth and Swansea.

[stknowle]

I felt prior today, even if we lost to Chelsea, that we could catch Udders because of their run in. But that Ince stoppage time goal is a hammer blow I think.

 

Brighton now look the best bet to catch, followed by Udders and Swansea. I don’t think it is all over just yet, but whereas we would have been looking for a point at Leicester and Everton now I think we will need to win one of them as well as beating Bournemouth and Swansea.

 

It's do-able but we won't do it.

[Cabrone]

Our last 5 league games are D-D-L-L-L and we're expected to overcome a 5 point gap within 5 league games?

 

That would be difficult even if we were in decent form but for a team that last won a league game back in November it's nigh on impossible.

 

Hiring and keeping Pellegrino for as long as they did has been the worst decision the club ever made in my time.

 

Reed and Kruger should do the decent thing at the end of the season.

[Lord Duckhunter]

Well that's it now, we're in do or die territory. It's down to the players mentality now. Can they get over today's crushing defeat and pick themselves up. If they can and they show the fight and commitment from the last 2 games there's absolutely no reason we couldn't win back to back league games. Swansea have Man C and then Chelsea so we could conceivably be above them if we do. I just hope the players believe it.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Badger]

Looking at other teams fixtures is almost irrelevant as it's seeing where we pick up the points from that is the problem.

 

There are teams there for catching, but just can't see us changing our own fortunes so dramatically with a gutless defence that was shown today during our collapse (ignoring all the other failings this season).

[Pilchards]

The only team I can now see us finishing above (and only on goal difference) is Brighton. That's if we get 7 points from the last 5 and they don't get a single point.

 

Our games:

 

Leicester - Win

Bournemouth - Win

Everton - Loss

Swansea - Draw

M City - Loss

 

Their games:

 

Spurs (Home)

Burnley (Away)

Man United (Home)

Man City (Away)

Liverpool (Away)

 

Unlikely all round. We're 95% down and it's a travesty that we'll be in Championship next season.

 

Ha ha ha thinking we will get 7 points.

Yes this does give you hope but knowing our luck Stoke will get more points than us.

[CB Fry]

So even the optimists have got us getting to 35 points which is clearly not going to be enough. Huddersfield have got that now and even they'll scrape a point from their horrible run-in.

 

It's going to be one of those boring seasons where the title and the relegation places are settled with plenty of games to spare.

 

At least the three going down are similarly "established" Premier League clubs so we're not alone.

[Saint Albert]

The only team I can now see us finishing above (and only on goal difference) is Brighton. That's if we get 7 points from the last 5 and they don't get a single point.

 

Our games:

 

Leicester - Win

Bournemouth - Win

Everton - Loss

Swansea - Draw

M City - Loss

 

Their games:

 

Spurs (Home)

Burnley (Away)

Man United (Home)

Man City (Away)

Liverpool (Away)

 

Unlikely all round. We're 95% down and it's a travesty that we'll be in Championship next season.

 

Swansea are 5 points up with the following remaining fixtures...

 

Man City (A)

Chelsea (H)

Bournemouth (A)

Saints (H)

Stoke (H)

 

This is probably the weekend where all reasonable hope went down the toilet. Still, if Saints can get results in the Leicester / Bournemouth/ Everton matches we could conceivably turn up at Swansea knowing a win would put us ahead of them. It’s a big if based on our run of results, but I haven’t lost all hope.

[Lord Duckhunter]

Swansea are 5 points up with the following remaining fixtures...

 

Man City (A)

Chelsea (H)

Bournemouth (A)

Saints (H)

Stoke (H)

 

This is probably the weekend where all reasonable hope went down the toilet. Still, if Saints can get results in the Leicester / Bournemouth/ Everton matches we could conceivably turn up at Swansea knowing a win would put us ahead of them. It’s a big if based on our run of results, but I haven’t lost all hope.

 

This is why back to back wins could really put the cat amongst the pigeons. As I said earlier, do so and we could well be above Swansea going into May. They've got Boscombe away the day we go to Everton. Easy game? Well not if we've taken 6 points from 2 games. We could be 4 points behind Boscombe as their game prior to us is Utd. Boscombe needing a point or win to absolutely guarantee survival is a tough game at their place. We just have to put pressure on sides by winning our next 2. I'm not saying we can catch Boscombe, because I doubt we can. But we can make Swanseas game there a lot lot tougher for them

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Pamplemousse]

So even the optimists have got us getting to 35 points which is clearly not going to be enough. Huddersfield have got that now and even they'll scrape a point from their horrible run-in.

 

It's going to be one of those boring seasons where the title and the relegation places are settled with plenty of games to spare.

 

At least the three going down are similarly "established" Premier League clubs so we're not alone.

 

The Championship, you could argue, will have a lot more bigger teams in it than some of the fodder in the Premier League.

 

Burnley, Watford, Brighton, Bournemouth, Huddersfield, Swansea, are they really bigger than us, Stoke, West Brom, Aston Villa, Leeds, Derby, Nottm Forest...?

[Saint_Tony]

I'm thinking relegation isn't all doom and gloom. More competitive and more regular games in midweek. Let's face it, we've had a good run and under Koeman were not too far off of CL qualification. We've had a (extremely disappointing) campaign in the Europa league and a Wembley final. For a club like ourselves we've done ok.

 

The PL has become boring in the last couple of seasons; there really isn't even a middle tier, its the top 5/6 then a whole host of relatively poor sides.

 

Ultimately, Les Reed has taken his obsession with 'The Southampton Way' and the business model too far. He has become arrogant and complacent in the last two years. This is what has cost us.

 

So we head down in slight crisis, but if Reed leaves I am sure we can rebuild and come again.

 

I think the gap is just too big now to make up. We seem to forget we are incapable of winning games as it is, and seem to be working on the assumption others around us won't pick up points.

 

Sent from my SM-G920F using Tapatalk

[CB Fry]

The Championship, you could argue, will have a lot more bigger teams in it than some of the fodder in the Premier League.

 

Burnley, Watford, Brighton, Bournemouth, Huddersfield, Swansea, are they really bigger than us, Stoke, West Brom, Aston Villa, Leeds, Derby, Nottm Forest...?

The Championship really is pretty magnificent as a league with the sheer number of proper big clubs in big cities in it. I've not studied it but I doubt there is an equivalent elsewhere in Europe.

 

Genuinely no shame for SFC to be in a division with Leeds and Forest and Wednesday and Villa (if they stay down).

 

Relegation annoying and utterly avoidable but we've been in the Championship before and we were always going to go down at some point so bring it on.

[OldNick]

The Championship, you could argue, will have a lot more bigger teams in it than some of the fodder in the Premier League.

 

Burnley, Watford, Brighton, Bournemouth, Huddersfield, Swansea, are they really bigger than us, Stoke, West Brom, Aston Villa, Leeds, Derby, Nottm Forest...?

this just shows how shameful pur season has been that clubs of that stature have got more points, Yes they deserve it but we had the resources. All the Trust in Les posters have gone I notice. Wheres Turkish?

[S-Clarke]

The champ is a slog. The only relegated side who have done 'remotley' decent is Boro, and they're only just in the playoffs. Hull and Sunderland are shot to bits.

 

Norwich are still nowhere near 2 years after they arrived.

 

If you get it wrong off the pitch and still believe you're a cut above then you will fall flat on your arse down there.

[Topcat]

Getting out of the Championship usually needs 26+ wins a 56%+ win ratio. This team and squad are incapable of that.

[M271]

For the first time on my mid-March predictor league I have Saints going down, as we are 2 points behind what I predicted (had draws for us against WH and Chelsea). The late goal by Hudds to win on Saturday was as hard a blow to our survival as us losing to Chelsea as I always had us and Hudds neck and neck with us staying up on GD. My latest prediction:

 

Huddersfield39

Swansea 38

Saints 36

Stoke 34

West Brom Bottom

 

With the following results (probably now optimistic seeing as we have let in 3 goals in each of last 4 league games!):

 

Leicester a 1

Bournmouth h 3

Everton a 0

Swansea a 3

Man C h 1

 

The whole season has been totally mismanaged, we knew after the opening 'easy' matches that not enough points had been gained and 'unfortunately' a good result against Everton and spirited performances against Man C, Man U, Chelsea and Arsenal which only resulted in 2 points (could easily have been 5) + progression in the cup kept Pellegrino in his job longer then he should.

As was the result on Saturday every time we put in a performance some lapses of concentration knock us back to square one again. I know that the we have to play better for any perceived luck or opportunities to come our way but the footballing gods really haven't helped us this season, up to and including the Alonso foul on Saturday. But you largely make your own luck and if our defence keep switching off as they do during matches we will ultimately not get the results that we need.

[Saint Garrett]

Although it looks incredibly bleak, if Swansea lose the next two, and we get 4 points (yes I know - unlikely!) but, it would put it back in our hands with us having to go to Swansea still.

 

There is still hope....just...

[magnet]

Although it looks incredibly bleak, if Swansea lose the next two, and we get 4 points (yes I know - unlikely!) but, it would put it back in our hands with us having to go to Swansea still.

 

There is still hope....just...

 

TBF we only need 3 points from the next two if Swansea lose their next two as the gap is only 5 points.

 

I also wouldn't be surprised if Brighton didn't win another game, they play Spurs H, Burnley A, Manu H, Man C A and Liverpool A.

[Saint_Tony]

Think we need to focus on ourselves before worrying about others. If I was a fan of any of the the other sides I'd be looking at Southampton and not being worried about them. When was the last time they won a game?

 

Sent from my SM-G920F using Tapatalk

[striker]

Remaining matches (we likely own the gd tiebreaker) -its not over, 2 wins may do it. Three should do it.

 

Saints: B'mouth, @Everton, @Swansea, Man City

Swansea: Chelsea, @B'mouth, Saints, Stoke

Hudders: Everton, @Man City, @Chelsea, Arsenal

[ludgershallsaint]

Probably need to add West Ham in there due to their fixtures

[Lallana's Left Peg]

2/5 on to get relegated, won 1 in 23 league (games or something like that).

 

Bournemouth to effectively relegate us next weekend.

 

Then let the post-mortem start - no point waiting as every week we lose in the summer its a week less we have to prepare for a league I genuinely think the powers that be will massively under estimate.

[shurlock]

It’s crunch time and to think people were wetting themselves with laughter because teams like Swansea were picking up lucky wins against Liverpool.

[S-Clarke]

Let's be honest, we've got to win the next 3 games to put ourselves on the front foot here. If we go into the Man City home game with any less than 35 points then it's done.

 

Can't see it to be honest. We just cannot win football matches, it's a very horrible slide to get into and very hard to reverse.

[Saint Albert]

Probably need to add West Ham in there due to their fixtures

 

I agree but having 3 out of the next 4 at home ought to help them unless it starts getting poisonous at their council house again. W. Ham fixtures...

 

Man City (H)

Leicester (A)

United (H)

Everton (H)

[S-Clarke]

I agree but having 3 out of the next 4 at home ought to help them unless it starts getting poisonous at their council house again. W. Ham fixtures...

 

Man City (H)

Leicester (A)

United (H)

Everton (H)

 

TBF, if anything, more at home will probably end up being a hinderence rather than a positive. They'll get 3 points out of that lot though, if by draws or a win somewhere. And that will be enough.

[SaintJackoInHurworth]

I think Brighton need to also be considered as still at risk of relegation. They have the hardest fixtures of any club at the bottom with three away games againt teams in the top seven and a home game against Man Utd. They could potentially get only one point from thiose (though I predict they might force a draw in the home match against United).

 

Therefore I have done the following comparison of fixtures and potential results for Saints and the five teams above us (including Palace who have easier fixtures but only three remaining games):

 

[table]

[tr]

[th]Saints[/th]

[th]Swansea[/th]

[th]Huddersfield[/th]

[th]West Ham[/th]

[th]Palace[/th]

[th]Brighton[/th]

[/tr]

[tr]

[th]Bournemouth (h) W[/th]

[th]Chelsea (H) D[/th]

[th]Everton (H) W[/th]

[th]Man City (H) L[/th]

[th]Leicester (H) W[/th]

[th]Burnley (A) L[/th]

[/tr]

[tr]

[th]Everton (A) D[/th]

[th]Bournemouth (A) L[/th]

[th]Man City (A) L[/th]

[th]Leicester (A) L[/th]

[th]Stoke (A) D[/th]

[th]Man Utd (H) D[/th]

[/tr]

[tr]

[th]Swansea (A) D[/th]

[th]Saints (H) D[/th]

[th]Chelsea (A) L[/th]

[th]Man Utd (H) D[/th]

[th]West Brom (H) D[/th]

[th]Man City (A) L[/th]

[/tr]

[tr]

[th]Man City (H) L[/th]

[th]Stoke (H) W[/th]

[th]Arsenal (H) L[/th]

[th]Everton (A) D[/th]

[th][/th]

[th]Liverpool (A) L[/th]

[/tr]

[tr]

[th]34 Points[/th]

[th]38 Points[/th]

[th]38 Points[/th]

[th]37 Points[/th]

[th]40 Points[/th]

[th]37 Points[/th]

[/tr]

[/table]

 

Now this would see Saints relegated, but it doesn't take a lot to change this. For example check out these scenarios...

 

• The Swansea match could be crucial. If we were to win that we would end up with 36 points and so would Swansea. However, as long as we do not concede five or six goals against Man City in our final game we would hopefully have a better goal difference than Swansea and would finish above them.

   

• If we were to achieve a draw against Man City in our last game and West Ham were to lose all of their games we would both be on 35 points and West Hame would be relegated with an inferior goal difference.

   

• If we were to beat Swansea or Everton and Brighton were to lose against Man Utd as well as the other matches, we would both have 36 points and it would be down to goal difference between Saints and Brighton (and Swansea if it were them that we were to beat). In all likelihood this run of results would result in us having a superior goal difference to both Brighton and Swansea.

   

• If Huddersfield were to lose to Everton as well as the other matches and we were to get a draw against Man City, we would both have 35 points, but we would have a far superior goal difference.

So, in essence every game is crucial and it is till vaguely possible that we could stay up. However, it is absolutely crucial that we beat Bournemouth.

[Batman]

No other team than Swansea are remotely at risk.

 

We can’t win and are terrible and stoke seem to be in the same boat

 

Talk of West Ham or Brighton being in danger is laughable

[Dusic]

Lets be honest, there is no chance of us winning the next three games, or even two of them.

 

We are so **** and concede goals from crosses in almost every game.

 

The whole season, and recent matches, scream relegation.

[Whitey Grandad]

Lets be honest, there is no chance of us winning the next three games, or even two of them.

 

We are so **** and concede goals from crosses in almost every game.

 

The whole season, and recent matches, scream relegation.

 

We don’t have to win the next three, we just have to win the next one.

 

Then when we’ve won that we just need to win the next one...

[Saint86]

Beat Cherries and we'll stay up. Have faith!