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Relegation Chances

Saint86

By Saint86,
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Doctoroncall

Doctoroncall

Posted
Posted
Can you see my point now?? It seems all the teams around us have managed a fluke win against one of the top 6 but we haven't, Bournemouth, Huddersfield, Swansea and now Newcastle!

 

We didn’t beat any last year. We’ve fücked up other winnable home games to worry about getting the odd win against a top six side.

 

It does show what a soft side we’ve become, if we’re not fighting for a result. Shouldn’t be to far of the top of the fair play league if that still exists.

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salisbury saints1

salisbury saints1

Posted
Posted

After this weekend's results I'm really concerned. I'd hoped Newcastle and Huddersfield were in free fall and either stoke or west brom (or both) wouldn't start winning. The glimmer of hope is we're playing better away with matches at Burnley, Newcastle, Swansea, and west ham to come before the end of march (plus stoke at home). I think 38 points will be sufficient this year so realistically need to win 3 of those 5 to stay up.

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Saint86

Saint86

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So I have updated the table with actual points returns vs predicted.

 

Maybe I was naive to allow for 5 points from the past 3 games, but either way... we are now sightly under-performing against what was a fairly conservative points estimate in the first place.

 

Points Estimate.jpg

 

Give then teams around us are frequently beating mid table and upper table teams, I really struggle to see how 35points will be sufficient.

 

I guess we just need to ensure we take points off of our direct rivals.

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SNSUN

SNSUN

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What a great little tool that is. I was pretty harsh with our results but we still finish 14th on 37 points which is a surprise. The order from 10th down is Watford, Bournemouth, West Ham, Huddersfield, Saints, Newcastle, Stoke, Swansea, Palace, Brighton, WBA. Palace and Brighton on 32 points and WBA on 26! If i knew 32 points was the safety mark I'd be a lot more confident!

 

Thats not the order I'd put the teams though, I think Brighton are good enough to stay up, we're bad enough to go down, and Huddersfield will be a lot closer, or in, the relegation zone too. It does show that WBA are almost definitely ****ed, and we need the big teams to consistently beat our rivals, which hasn't been happening lately.

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aintforever

aintforever

Posted
Posted

 

Had us relegated with 35 points. That’s including wins over Burnley, Stoke and Bournemouth.

 

I’m just not confident about getting enough points on the road. We’ve only won two away games all season and both of those were against the bottom of the league sides. With this clown in charge I don’t see how anything is going to change.

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Dangermouth

Dangermouth

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It is. I like the way it's just one match at a time so that's all you concentrate on.

 

Got WBA bottom, then us, then Stoke.

 

35 points looks enough to keep a team up based on what people have said and my guesses when added to that predictor also show that the team with 35 points stays up. I think that's probably about right but that the positions after the end of March are likely to not change a great deal after that so while it might be that mathematically 8 or 9 teams will still be in with a shout of going down it will really only be about the bottom 4 or 5 that are really the ones fighting for survival.

 

I really don't see us getting another win until Austin comes back and by then we have (if he makes the last 8 games) 5 away where our chances are limited and 3 at home where one is Bournemouth so it'll be a difficult game, one is Chelsea and the last one against Man City. who may have other things on their minds. I think even City's reserves would do us though.

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kwsaint

kwsaint

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Posted

Think that we will need a minimum of 38 points to stay up. There are a lot of teams on around 1 point/game - from Watford downwards. The table isn't as spread out as normal. All will be scrapping like mad so will pick up points. WBA look gone but it could be any two from 7 or 8 teams.

 

So we need 12/13 points from 11 games. No idea where they are going to come from. Stoke and Bournemouth at home are must wins - can only hope that we pick up a couple of away wins.

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Highfield Saint

Highfield Saint

Posted
Posted
So I have updated the table with actual points returns vs predicted.

 

Maybe I was naive to allow for 5 points from the past 3 games, but either way... we are now sightly under-performing against what was a fairly conservative points estimate in the first place.

 

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2635[/ATTACH]

 

Give then teams around us are frequently beating mid table and upper table teams, I really struggle to see how 35points will be sufficient.

 

I guess we just need to ensure we take points off of our direct rivals.

 

I don't think it will make much difference to your forecast but you've missed a game - Chelsea home

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Highfield Saint

Highfield Saint

Posted
Posted

A cause for hope is that our away form is better than our home form (maybe something to do with support and atmosphere as well as the way that teams set up against us?)

 

Away

 

We have played 12 and lost five away games all season - Spurs, Chelsea, City, Lpool and Stoke

We have one top six left to play away

We are 12th in the away league table

7 away fixtures left

11 away points so far

 

Home

 

Lost 6 won 3

Lost against Liverpool, Palace, Leicester, Burnley, Utd and Watford

Left to play - Stoke, Chelsea, Bournemouth and City

19th in home league table

15 points so far

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aintforever

aintforever

Posted
Posted
A cause for hope is that our away form is better than our home form (maybe something to do with support and atmosphere as well as the way that teams set up against us?)

 

Away

 

We have played 12 and lost five away games all season - Spurs, Chelsea, City, Lpool and Stoke

We have one top six left to play away

We are 12th in the away league table

7 away fixtures left

11 away points so far

 

Home

 

Lost 6 won 3

Lost against Liverpool, Palace, Leicester, Burnley, Utd and Watford

Left to play - Stoke, Chelsea, Bournemouth and City

19th in home league table

15 points so far

 

SOME cause for hope but not a lot considering we have only won twice away from home all season and both of them were against the team bottom of the league.

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Shandy_Top_89

Shandy_Top_89

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Had us relegated with 35 points. That’s including wins over Burnley, Stoke and Bournemouth.

 

I’m just not confident about getting enough points on the road. We’ve only won two away games all season and both of those were against the bottom of the league sides. With this clown in charge I don’t see how anything is going to change.

 

Had us relegated in 18th on 33 points along with Stoke and West Brom.

 

West Ham lowest survivors on 35 (think I may have been a bit harsh on them), then Brighton on 36. (More realistic).

 

Survival is attainable, but it is all a bit perilous right now.

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Mallagroth

Mallagroth

Posted
Posted

surely someone in the club with an ounce of credulity and leeway has also done a prediction table with all the resources at their disposal and realised that if Les himself isn't seeing the writing on the wall then it should be pointed out. How many ****ing millions are going into this club for not one of the people with the ability to change something to actually have a voice and state the obvious... whoever you are, you need to speak up because a lot of jobs are going to be lost in about 3 months and yours may be one of them...

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Saint Fan CaM

Saint Fan CaM

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Posted

The problem is our form....it has been so poor....and the manner in which we play. There is little in our playing style, in the attacking guile, that gives me any cause to be optimistic. Based purely on these issues I think we’re dead certs for the drop. Addd to this the teams also in the mix are looking better value now and our fate is sealed.

 

Hope I’m wrong...if we win the next two games on the bounce I might start to think differently, but unlike previous seasons I’ve no confidence in the team or the manager.

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SKD

SKD

Posted
Posted

The way I see it:

 

Out of the next 6 PL fixtures (Burnley away, Stoke home, Newcastle away, Swansea away, West Ham away) we need to win at least 4 of them to stand any chance (I think 4/5 wins would probably see us safe). We've only won 5 games all season, so we essentially need to double our win tally in the next run of fixtures - unlikely (unless something changes).

 

After that, I'd say we would need to pick up a minimum of 4 points from Leicester (a bit hit or miss - Puel coudl potentially send us down), Bompey (seems to always end in a draw - again could send us down), and Everton (once again hit or miss).

 

I think we have left ourselves too much to do, but we do have some favorable fixtures and there are some very very poor teams around us right now.

 

Conclusion:

If MP stays we will drop (if we stay up, it will be by the very skin of our teeth and as a result of others being poor). Change manager (now...) I think we have a decent chance of staying up.

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Chewy

Chewy

Posted
Posted

 

I wouldn't say that accurate. Whether we get enough points to survive is questionable but I think we'll have a good few more than that prediction. And I think being a London paper they're being very optimistic for palace. Can't see how Stoke will survive personally.

 

It will be tight and each week will mean a rethink due to unforeseen results (Newcastle last week for example). But a draw at burnley (worst form in league) and a win v Stoke which are both achievable could see us up to about 13th in a couple of weeks time. I for one think predicting the bottom 3 even from this close to the end of the season is nigh on impossible.

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DT

DT

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Posted
I wouldn't say that accurate. Whether we get enough points to survive is questionable but I think we'll have a good few more than that prediction. And I think being a London paper they're being very optimistic for palace. Can't see how Stoke will survive personally.

 

It will be tight and each week will mean a rethink due to unforeseen results (Newcastle last week for example). But a draw at burnley (worst form in league) and a win v Stoke which are both achievable could see us up to about 13th in a couple of weeks time. I for one think predicting the bottom 3 even from this close to the end of the season is nigh on impossible.

I think Stoke will survive as they have a manager who is popular and knows what he is doing. I think our only hope is that injury-ravaged Palace will be pulled right back into it, but Woy also is a canny manager. I would say West Brom have too much to do, and Huddersfield look dicey, but that in all seriousness, with our manager in charge Saints are a very good bet to go down. Based on incompetency, lack of sprit and fight, with most playing personnel not giving a proverbial, preferring to think of the beach and their next club next season.

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S-Clarke

S-Clarke

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Posted
I wouldn't say that accurate. Whether we get enough points to survive is questionable but I think we'll have a good few more than that prediction. And I think being a London paper they're being very optimistic for palace. Can't see how Stoke will survive personally.

 

It will be tight and each week will mean a rethink due to unforeseen results (Newcastle last week for example). But a draw at burnley (worst form in league) and a win v Stoke which are both achievable could see us up to about 13th in a couple of weeks time. I for one think predicting the bottom 3 even from this close to the end of the season is nigh on impossible.

 

Yeah, that doesn't look acurate to me at all. Given Palace's injuries and the upcoming fixtures, that is a very optimistic return for them. And even if we are bloody crap, we're clearly going to pickup more than 3 points out of 11 games...!

 

But agreed - impossible to predict the outcome really, it will chop and change every week. At least it will be an exciting end to the season, only positive i can paint on it.

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shurlock

shurlock

Posted
Posted

 

It’s completely moronic - among other things, it assumes that we’ll only pick up 3 points from our remaining 11 games, less than half the number of points that West Brom are expected to pick up and fewest of all struggling sides by some margin.

 

Things are poor but they are not as bad as this helmet suggests.

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Chewy

Chewy

Posted
Posted
I think Stoke will survive as they have a manager who is popular and knows what he is doing. I think our only hope is that injury-ravaged Palace will be pulled right back into it, but Woy also is a canny manager. I would say West Brom have too much to do, and Huddersfield look dicey, but that in all seriousness, with our manager in charge Saints are a very good bet to go down. Based on incompetency, lack of sprit and fight, with most playing personnel not giving a proverbial, preferring to think of the beach and their next club next season.

 

Don't get me wrong, think we're a very good bet to go down with this manager. But palace have an awful run of fixtures, as do Brighton to a lesser extent.

 

Stokes fixtures are really not good and I think you overrate lambert. He's had a mini bounce effect but I think they're dire. Don't see Huddersfield picking up too many more points and in terms of playing personnel, Swansea and Newcastle are lacking. Watford and Bournemouth have probably done enough, and I think West Ham have enough winnable games to survive, but it's too close to call.

 

At this stage I'd predict Stoke and west brom to go, with any one from us, palace, Brighton or Huddersfield.

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ChiefScummer

ChiefScummer

Posted
Posted

More than 3 points? Optimistic, so 4 draws then? Sorry but can't see more than one win. Do you remember how sh!te the teams we beat were at the time? No one is going to be that easy again. I hope you are right though. Can't see where the wins are going to come from but I see some nil nil draws and 1 all draws.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Saint86

Saint86

Posted
  • Author
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So I have updated the table with actual points returns vs predicted.

 

Maybe I was naive to allow for 5 points from the past 3 games, but either way... we are now sightly under-performing against what was a fairly conservative points estimate in the first place.

 

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2635[/ATTACH]

 

Give then teams around us are frequently beating mid table and upper table teams, I really struggle to see how 35points will be sufficient.

 

I guess we just need to ensure we take points off of our direct rivals.

 

So, I had stoke down as a win. Which means we are now on course for 34 points from my original already pessimistic/conservative estimations (allowing for point at Burnley).

 

I though 36 would be squeaky bum time. Now I am very worried!!

 

Very hard to see where another win might come from :uhoh:

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