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Relegation Chances


Saint86

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Just knocked this up:

Points Estimate.jpg

 

Now, maybe I am being overly negative. But I've tried to take a conservative/realistic outlook of the remaining games as a baseline.

 

If we're going to stay up then we'll improve on 35/36 points. And we'll likely do that by beating the returns set out in that table.

 

It makes for bleak reading, and if we fail to beat Brighton we'll be looking at 33-34 points at the end of the season :scared:

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Just knocked this up:

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2618[/ATTACH]

 

Now, maybe I am being overly negative. But I've tried to take a conservative/realistic outlook of the remaining games as a baseline.

 

If we're going to stay up then we'll improve on 35/36 points. And we'll likely do that by beating the returns set out in that table.

 

It makes for bleak reading, and if we fail to beat Brighton we'll be looking at 33-34 points at the end of the season :scared:

 

Your opinion i suppose but anyone could make a different outcome one based on the same... and opinion

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I don't think that there is a lot wrong with those predictions. There are a couple that could go either way............Everton away, Newcastle Away, Burnley away they are not doing much lately. I love these prediction tables because 9 times out of 10 we are completely wrong, but the do show what a precarious position we are in

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This is a relatively well built model, if there is such a thing. Has us 7th most likely to be relegated, finishing on 38 pts:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/

If you go back to December 6th as the start of the predictions they have us finishing 10th. Which means their model is over estimating our performances as a minimum. By a lot.

 

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk

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Just knocked this up:

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2618[/ATTACH]

 

Now, maybe I am being overly negative. But I've tried to take a conservative/realistic outlook of the remaining games as a baseline.

 

If we're going to stay up then we'll improve on 35/36 points. And we'll likely do that by beating the returns set out in that table.

 

It makes for bleak reading, and if we fail to beat Brighton we'll be looking at 33-34 points at the end of the season :scared:

 

So, revised down to 34 points. And certain relegation.

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no more wins? :scared:

 

I bet West Brom, Swansea, Newcastle etc all have their home game against us down as a "must win" game. We don't win games where we concede as we rarely score twice in a game....unfortunately we don't do clean sheets either...personally I think two more wins may be our limit?

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We've played Palace, Swansea, Burnley, Huddersfield, Brighton, Newcastle, Watford at home. Haven't won any of them.

 

Alarm bells are ringing pretty loud for me. The games we should have, on paper, got the points from have gone. At least we're better away from home.

 

Oh wait.

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This is a relatively well built model, if there is such a thing. Has us 7th most likely to be relegated, finishing on 38 pts:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/

 

Now up to 28% likelihood of going down after this morning.

Suggests Huddersfield is doomed, and West Brom still in big trouble. If we don't get anything against them we're probably the third of the the three.

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I was wondering how compare at this stage of the season with our relegation season. We had 18pts after 25 games in season 2004-2005 so we are doing better. :/

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004%E2%80%9305_Southampton_F.C._season

 

Our record then was only winning 3 a goal difference of -15 and only 18pts.

 

My worry is we haven't strengthened the squad when clearly what we have isn't working, we haven't replaced the manager when clearly what we have isn't working, we are struggling to score, struggling to beat teams around us, other teams have all improved (except WBA) and time is running out.

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Anyone feel like the run of fixtures at the end of the season have an ominous feel to them? Puel to put the first nail in the coffin, local 'rivals' Bournemouth to put the next, and for us to be mathematically relegated when Theo Walcott scores the winner against us.

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With so many teams struggling for points I would be amazed if 40 is needed to stay up, but clearly need to target that. So 17 from 13 games. I think that would need to be 5 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats. We must now target the following, accepting there are usually some freak results either way:

 

Wins: WBA, Stoke, Newcastle, Swansea and Bournemouth

Draws: Burnley and Wet Spam

Defeats: Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea, Leicester, Everton and Man City

 

Not only do I think this is the most likely route to staying up, it is also important that we do not lose to any of the sides around us. As frustrating as draws are, they do have the advantage of keeping teams in the mix and not starting to escape

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Anyone feel like the run of fixtures at the end of the season have an ominous feel to them? Puel to put the first nail in the coffin, local 'rivals' Bournemouth to put the next, and for us to be mathematically relegated when Theo Walcott scores the winner against us.

 

Before City twist the knife b trouncing an already relegated side at home?

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With so many teams struggling for points I would be amazed if 40 is needed to stay up, but clearly need to target that. So 17 from 13 games. I think that would need to be 5 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats. We must now target the following, accepting there are usually some freak results either way:

 

Wins: WBA, Stoke, Newcastle, Swansea and Bournemouth

Draws: Burnley and Wet Spam

Defeats: Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea, Leicester, Everton and Man City

 

Not only do I think this is the most likely route to staying up, it is also important that we do not lose to any of the sides around us. As frustrating as draws are, they do have the advantage of keeping teams in the mix and not starting to escape

 

5 wins???

 

:lol:

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That article seriously worries me. The whole clubs seems so arrogant at the moment, almost oblivious to how **** we actually are!!!

 

I totally agree. This was the sort of attitude that got us to the point we are now and it has been going on for years. I sussed it out and warned about this and predicted where it would lead to only to be lambasted and ridiculed.

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No chance of relegation this season as we're targeting the Top 10.

 

http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/sport/saints/news/15917417.Jack_Stephens_targets_top_ten/?ref=rss

 

Yes Jack only 6 points and you'd be mid table....by the way how many games has it taken you to get the last 6 league points? You have won 4 games all season..what do you think is actually going to change to get you actually winning a game?

 

F***ing idiot

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Has there been any other prem team stick by a new manager (the way we have) during such low periods? How did it turn out for them? Most would have given the marching orders by now and got someone else in I think.

 

Sent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk

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Just knocked this up:

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2618[/ATTACH]

 

Now, maybe I am being overly negative. But I've tried to take a conservative/realistic outlook of the remaining games as a baseline.

 

If we're going to stay up then we'll improve on 35/36 points. And we'll likely do that by beating the returns set out in that table.

 

It makes for bleak reading, and if we fail to beat Brighton we'll be looking at 33-34 points at the end of the season :scared:

 

Every fixture on there bar City and Arsenal away is winnable.

 

Burnley are in poor form, who knows which Liverpool will turn up. West Ham are doing poorly and have injury issues.

 

Everton, Stoke, Bournemouth all pretty awful.

 

Leicester have gone off the boil and have the Mahrez problems.

 

I think if we can keep up our more recent performances then 4 wins is achievable, with probably 4 draws. 42 points.

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Should actually be 13th on that 538 table - better goal difference than West Ham... I think we can get another 15/16 points over the rest of the season anyway. Now the players have got the 'no win since the neolithic period' monkey off their backs...

 

after this week's matches..

 

538 has us at a 15% chance of relegation and predicts a 14th place finish with 39 points.

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/

 

Sportclubstats has us at a 11.7% chance of relegation

 

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html

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Every fixture on there bar City and Arsenal away is winnable.

 

Burnley are in poor form, who knows which Liverpool will turn up. West Ham are doing poorly and have injury issues.

 

Everton, Stoke, Bournemouth all pretty awful.

 

Leicester have gone off the boil and have the Mahrez problems.

 

I think if we can keep up our more recent performances then 4 wins is achievable, with probably 4 draws. 42 points.

 

Well, as happy as we all feel after WBA, we're still on course for the 36 points i predicted as a base line. The simple fact is that we'll either beat my predictions (and stay up), match then (squeaky bum time), or do worse (certain relegation).

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Well, as happy as we all feel after WBA, we're still on course for the 36 points i predicted as a base line. The simple fact is that we'll either beat my predictions (and stay up), match then (squeaky bum time), or do worse (certain relegation).

 

Usually you would look at that fixture list and think it was doable, but with this manager..............:cry:

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Well, as happy as we all feel after WBA, we're still on course for the 36 points i predicted as a base line. The simple fact is that we'll either beat my predictions (and stay up), match then (squeaky bum time), or do worse (certain relegation).

 

Like I said, I think anyone but Arsenal away and City at home is easily winnable.

 

Majority of those teams are currently poor and many of them are in worst form than us, with worst injuries and (on paper at least) worst squads.

 

If our team gets back to anywhere near the level they should be at we should win plenty of those games, also I think the away games may actually help us because those teams will not just sit back and defend which has been one of our issues this year and going back the last few seasons at home against beatable opposition.

 

Flip side we could lose most of them, but we shouldn't.

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Like I said, I think anyone but Arsenal away and City at home is easily winnable.

 

Majority of those teams are currently poor and many of them are in worst form than us, with worst injuries and (on paper at least) worst squads.

 

If our team gets back to anywhere near the level they should be at we should win plenty of those games, also I think the away games may actually help us because those teams will not just sit back and defend which has been one of our issues this year and going back the last few seasons at home against beatable opposition.

 

Flip side we could lose most of them, but we shouldn't.

 

I absolutely hope you're right.

 

That table is just a conservative baseline. If we are going to stay up we will outperform it imo. It will be a lot clearer after another couple of matches anyway.

 

After the win against west brom, getting results at Burnley and Leicester certainly seems to be more likely... but that could equally just be another false dawn!!

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Let's not be fooled by our only win in 12+ games. All we have done is kept pace (points wise) with Brighton in our last two matches and have lost ground on Bournemouth and seen us lose points against such dross as Stoke, Watford, Huddersfield, Palace, Swansea and Newcastle. Only WBA have won fewer games than us and we have only beaten the worst team in the division twice. Watford beat Chelsea, Bournemouth beat Chelsea, Swansea beat both Liverpool and Arsenal and Huddersfield beat Man United. Have we beaten any of the top 6 teams.....no! I still really fear for our survival.

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Let's not be fooled by our only win in 12+ games. All we have done is kept pace (points wise) with Brighton in our last two matches and have lost ground on Bournemouth and seen us lose points against such dross as Stoke, Watford, Huddersfield, Palace, Swansea and Newcastle. Only WBA have won fewer games than us and we have only beaten the worst team in the division twice. Watford beat Chelsea, Bournemouth beat Chelsea, Swansea beat both Liverpool and Arsenal and Huddersfield beat Man United. Have we beaten any of the top 6 teams.....no! I still really fear for our survival.

 

We don't need to beat anyone in the top 6 to survive, any points against Liverpool, Chelsea and Man City would be bonus points.

 

We have to beat the likes of Stoke, Bournemouth, West Ham, Newcastle, Swansea etc.

 

And to be fair we have drawn with Spurs, Arsenal, and Utd away, we haven't played Chelsea or Liverpool at home, who other clubs seem to be picking up points from.

 

I'm also not worried about playing these teams away because I think it will suit us, we have dropped points at home to poor teams because they sit in for most of the game and defend.

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Looking at the fixtures and we do have the toughest run-in out of all the teams down there but if we can get results against the teams around us away from home (and we look like we could) we stand a half decent chance of staying up. Having only two ‘winnable’ home games left is a pretty **** situation to be in though. I doubt any one else will be as poor as West Brom were at home. We need to get at least 3 wins before we play Arsenal to stand a chance IMO.

 

West Brom have 4 ‘winnable’ home games left but are playing catch up and have a tough run in after those so I can’t see them pulling away wit the form they are in.

 

Swansea, West Ham and Huddersfield all have 5 ‘winnable’ home games left so they are well placed to pick up enough points.

 

Newcastle, Palace and Brighton all only have 3 ‘winnable’ home games left. Brighton have a nightmare last four games (Tottenham Hotspur H, Burnley A, Manchester United H, Liverpool A) so if they are not a few points clear by then they are up against it. Palace have a nightmare run coming up where they play Everton away then 4 of the top 5 so they will probably be up to their necks for the final few games.

 

It’s almost impossible to predict because there are so many 6 pointers and not a lot between the quality of the whole bottom half, plus there are always some freak results. But I would guess at the bottom three being West Brom, Brighton and Newcastle.

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We don't need to beat anyone in the top 6 to survive, any points against Liverpool, Chelsea and Man City would be bonus points.

 

We have to beat the likes of Stoke, Bournemouth, West Ham, Newcastle, Swansea etc.

 

And to be fair we have drawn with Spurs, Arsenal, and Utd away, we haven't played Chelsea or Liverpool at home, who other clubs seem to be picking up points from.

 

I'm also not worried about playing these teams away because I think it will suit us, we have dropped points at home to poor teams because they sit in for most of the game and defend.

 

 

Can you see my point now?? It seems all the teams around us have managed a fluke win against one of the top 6 but we haven't, Bournemouth, Huddersfield, Swansea and now Newcastle!

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