Saint86 Posted 31 January, 2018 Share Posted 31 January, 2018 Just knocked this up: Now, maybe I am being overly negative. But I've tried to take a conservative/realistic outlook of the remaining games as a baseline. If we're going to stay up then we'll improve on 35/36 points. And we'll likely do that by beating the returns set out in that table. It makes for bleak reading, and if we fail to beat Brighton we'll be looking at 33-34 points at the end of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALWAYS_SFC Posted 31 January, 2018 Share Posted 31 January, 2018 Just knocked this up: [ATTACH=CONFIG]2618[/ATTACH] Now, maybe I am being overly negative. But I've tried to take a conservative/realistic outlook of the remaining games as a baseline. If we're going to stay up then we'll improve on 35/36 points. And we'll likely do that by beating the returns set out in that table. It makes for bleak reading, and if we fail to beat Brighton we'll be looking at 33-34 points at the end of the season Your opinion i suppose but anyone could make a different outcome one based on the same... and opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevie61163 Posted 31 January, 2018 Share Posted 31 January, 2018 I don't think that there is a lot wrong with those predictions. There are a couple that could go either way............Everton away, Newcastle Away, Burnley away they are not doing much lately. I love these prediction tables because 9 times out of 10 we are completely wrong, but the do show what a precarious position we are in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unbelievable Jeff Posted 31 January, 2018 Share Posted 31 January, 2018 If it's any consolation I think we'll win 3-1 tonight. #predictions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DT Posted 31 January, 2018 Share Posted 31 January, 2018 I now think we'll go down with Huddersfield and Newcastle. All the teams that are keeping their managers... Unless we win handsomely tonight and go on a big run. obvs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benali-shorts Posted 31 January, 2018 Share Posted 31 January, 2018 This is a relatively well built model, if there is such a thing. Has us 7th most likely to be relegated, finishing on 38 pts: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint86 Posted 31 January, 2018 Author Share Posted 31 January, 2018 This is a relatively well built model, if there is such a thing. Has us 7th most likely to be relegated, finishing on 38 pts: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/If you go back to December 6th as the start of the predictions they have us finishing 10th. Which means their model is over estimating our performances as a minimum. By a lot. Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint86 Posted 31 January, 2018 Author Share Posted 31 January, 2018 Just knocked this up: [ATTACH=CONFIG]2618[/ATTACH] Now, maybe I am being overly negative. But I've tried to take a conservative/realistic outlook of the remaining games as a baseline. If we're going to stay up then we'll improve on 35/36 points. And we'll likely do that by beating the returns set out in that table. It makes for bleak reading, and if we fail to beat Brighton we'll be looking at 33-34 points at the end of the season So, revised down to 34 points. And certain relegation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint86 Posted 31 January, 2018 Author Share Posted 31 January, 2018 I'm revising down to 30 points. no more wins? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint-Fred Posted 31 January, 2018 Share Posted 31 January, 2018 no more wins? I bet West Brom, Swansea, Newcastle etc all have their home game against us down as a "must win" game. We don't win games where we concede as we rarely score twice in a game....unfortunately we don't do clean sheets either...personally I think two more wins may be our limit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S-Clarke Posted 31 January, 2018 Share Posted 31 January, 2018 We've played Palace, Swansea, Burnley, Huddersfield, Brighton, Newcastle, Watford at home. Haven't won any of them. Alarm bells are ringing pretty loud for me. The games we should have, on paper, got the points from have gone. At least we're better away from home. Oh wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scotty Posted 31 January, 2018 Share Posted 31 January, 2018 no more wins? Are you expecting any? (serious question) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint86 Posted 31 January, 2018 Author Share Posted 31 January, 2018 Are you expecting any? (serious question)I can't bring myself to say that we may not win another league game before the championship. Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted 1 February, 2018 Share Posted 1 February, 2018 I can't bring myself to say that we may not win another league game before the championship. Sent from my HTC One_M8 using TapatalkThat's a depressing thought. And a serious possibility. Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GarrettIvo Posted 1 February, 2018 Share Posted 1 February, 2018 This is a relatively well built model, if there is such a thing. Has us 7th most likely to be relegated, finishing on 38 pts: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/ Now up to 28% likelihood of going down after this morning. Suggests Huddersfield is doomed, and West Brom still in big trouble. If we don't get anything against them we're probably the third of the the three. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfc6mufc3 Posted 1 February, 2018 Share Posted 1 February, 2018 I was wondering how compare at this stage of the season with our relegation season. We had 18pts after 25 games in season 2004-2005 so we are doing better. :/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004%E2%80%9305_Southampton_F.C._season Our record then was only winning 3 a goal difference of -15 and only 18pts. My worry is we haven't strengthened the squad when clearly what we have isn't working, we haven't replaced the manager when clearly what we have isn't working, we are struggling to score, struggling to beat teams around us, other teams have all improved (except WBA) and time is running out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintTex Posted 1 February, 2018 Share Posted 1 February, 2018 http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html i've used this one in the past. 20.9% chance of relegation. but let's look positively and make plans for Europe. If we finish 14-0-0, we have a 1% chance of finishing in 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrfahaji Posted 1 February, 2018 Share Posted 1 February, 2018 Anyone feel like the run of fixtures at the end of the season have an ominous feel to them? Puel to put the first nail in the coffin, local 'rivals' Bournemouth to put the next, and for us to be mathematically relegated when Theo Walcott scores the winner against us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forester Posted 1 February, 2018 Share Posted 1 February, 2018 With so many teams struggling for points I would be amazed if 40 is needed to stay up, but clearly need to target that. So 17 from 13 games. I think that would need to be 5 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats. We must now target the following, accepting there are usually some freak results either way: Wins: WBA, Stoke, Newcastle, Swansea and Bournemouth Draws: Burnley and Wet Spam Defeats: Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea, Leicester, Everton and Man City Not only do I think this is the most likely route to staying up, it is also important that we do not lose to any of the sides around us. As frustrating as draws are, they do have the advantage of keeping teams in the mix and not starting to escape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivan Katalinic's 'tache Posted 1 February, 2018 Share Posted 1 February, 2018 Anyone feel like the run of fixtures at the end of the season have an ominous feel to them? Puel to put the first nail in the coffin, local 'rivals' Bournemouth to put the next, and for us to be mathematically relegated when Theo Walcott scores the winner against us. Before City twist the knife b trouncing an already relegated side at home? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hackedoff Posted 1 February, 2018 Share Posted 1 February, 2018 Things are not suddenly going to come good,far too late for that to happen. Club is spent force on and off the pitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonnyboy Posted 1 February, 2018 Share Posted 1 February, 2018 With so many teams struggling for points I would be amazed if 40 is needed to stay up, but clearly need to target that. So 17 from 13 games. I think that would need to be 5 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats. We must now target the following, accepting there are usually some freak results either way: Wins: WBA, Stoke, Newcastle, Swansea and Bournemouth Draws: Burnley and Wet Spam Defeats: Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea, Leicester, Everton and Man City Not only do I think this is the most likely route to staying up, it is also important that we do not lose to any of the sides around us. As frustrating as draws are, they do have the advantage of keeping teams in the mix and not starting to escape 5 wins??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forester Posted 1 February, 2018 Share Posted 1 February, 2018 Just to be clear, these aren’t predictions. I will be delighted if this is how it pans out, I was simply setting out what the most realistic route to safety is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrfahaji Posted 2 February, 2018 Share Posted 2 February, 2018 Before City twist the knife b trouncing an already relegated side at home? Wouldn't surprise me if we beat them on the last day, as they will probably be champions already. Of course, we will probably relegated already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperSAINT Posted 3 February, 2018 Share Posted 3 February, 2018 No chance of relegation this season as we're targeting the Top 10. http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/sport/saints/news/15917417.Jack_Stephens_targets_top_ten/?ref=rss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint86 Posted 3 February, 2018 Author Share Posted 3 February, 2018 No chance of relegation this season as we're targeting the Top 10. http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/sport/saints/news/15917417.Jack_Stephens_targets_top_ten/?ref=rss That article seriously worries me. The whole clubs seems so arrogant at the moment, almost oblivious to how **** we actually are!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snopper Posted 3 February, 2018 Share Posted 3 February, 2018 That article seriously worries me. The whole clubs seems so arrogant at the moment, almost oblivious to how **** we actually are!!! I hope I`m wrong but I detect delusions of adequacy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypochondriac Posted 3 February, 2018 Share Posted 3 February, 2018 That article seriously worries me. The whole clubs seems so arrogant at the moment, almost oblivious to how **** we actually are!!!Nah. The club marketing machine will have told him what to say. The players know exactly where we are I am sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalek2003 Posted 3 February, 2018 Share Posted 3 February, 2018 That article seriously worries me. The whole clubs seems so arrogant at the moment, almost oblivious to how **** we actually are!!! I totally agree. This was the sort of attitude that got us to the point we are now and it has been going on for years. I sussed it out and warned about this and predicted where it would lead to only to be lambasted and ridiculed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Topcat Posted 3 February, 2018 Share Posted 3 February, 2018 No chance of relegation this season as we're targeting the Top 10. http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/sport/saints/news/15917417.Jack_Stephens_targets_top_ten/?ref=rss It comes across similar to something issued by Hitler in his bunker in 1945, completely deluded about the Russians closing in on him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint-Fred Posted 3 February, 2018 Share Posted 3 February, 2018 No chance of relegation this season as we're targeting the Top 10. http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/sport/saints/news/15917417.Jack_Stephens_targets_top_ten/?ref=rss Yes Jack only 6 points and you'd be mid table....by the way how many games has it taken you to get the last 6 league points? You have won 4 games all season..what do you think is actually going to change to get you actually winning a game? F***ing idiot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petts Posted 3 February, 2018 Share Posted 3 February, 2018 Has there been any other prem team stick by a new manager (the way we have) during such low periods? How did it turn out for them? Most would have given the marching orders by now and got someone else in I think. Sent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pamplemousse Posted 3 February, 2018 Share Posted 3 February, 2018 How stupid do they think the fans are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint-Fred Posted 3 February, 2018 Share Posted 3 February, 2018 How stupid do they think the fans are? TBF a lot believed the champions league stuff so I expect Ralph and co have got a pretty low opinion of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sydenhamssocks Posted 3 February, 2018 Share Posted 3 February, 2018 Mark Lawrenson just said on Football Focus that he can't see us being relegated! The kiss of death Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Topcat Posted 3 February, 2018 Share Posted 3 February, 2018 Mark Lawrenson just said on Football Focus that he can't see us being relegated! The kiss of death�� Yes my heart sank when that "genius" predicted that. he had no doubts either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Window Cleaner Posted 4 February, 2018 Share Posted 4 February, 2018 Mark Lawrenson just said on Football Focus that he can't see us being relegated! The kiss of death? He's pretty much right though. We have good players, they can get us out of the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tajjuk Posted 4 February, 2018 Share Posted 4 February, 2018 Just knocked this up: [ATTACH=CONFIG]2618[/ATTACH] Now, maybe I am being overly negative. But I've tried to take a conservative/realistic outlook of the remaining games as a baseline. If we're going to stay up then we'll improve on 35/36 points. And we'll likely do that by beating the returns set out in that table. It makes for bleak reading, and if we fail to beat Brighton we'll be looking at 33-34 points at the end of the season Every fixture on there bar City and Arsenal away is winnable. Burnley are in poor form, who knows which Liverpool will turn up. West Ham are doing poorly and have injury issues. Everton, Stoke, Bournemouth all pretty awful. Leicester have gone off the boil and have the Mahrez problems. I think if we can keep up our more recent performances then 4 wins is achievable, with probably 4 draws. 42 points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintTex Posted 4 February, 2018 Share Posted 4 February, 2018 after this week's matches.. 538 has us at a 15% chance of relegation and predicts a 14th place finish with 39 points. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/ Sportclubstats has us at a 11.7% chance of relegation http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaptopSaint Posted 4 February, 2018 Share Posted 4 February, 2018 Should actually be 13th on that 538 table - better goal difference than West Ham... I think we can get another 15/16 points over the rest of the season anyway. Now the players have got the 'no win since the neolithic period' monkey off their backs... after this week's matches.. 538 has us at a 15% chance of relegation and predicts a 14th place finish with 39 points. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/ Sportclubstats has us at a 11.7% chance of relegation http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint86 Posted 5 February, 2018 Author Share Posted 5 February, 2018 Every fixture on there bar City and Arsenal away is winnable. Burnley are in poor form, who knows which Liverpool will turn up. West Ham are doing poorly and have injury issues. Everton, Stoke, Bournemouth all pretty awful. Leicester have gone off the boil and have the Mahrez problems. I think if we can keep up our more recent performances then 4 wins is achievable, with probably 4 draws. 42 points. Well, as happy as we all feel after WBA, we're still on course for the 36 points i predicted as a base line. The simple fact is that we'll either beat my predictions (and stay up), match then (squeaky bum time), or do worse (certain relegation). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SW5 SAINT Posted 5 February, 2018 Share Posted 5 February, 2018 Well, as happy as we all feel after WBA, we're still on course for the 36 points i predicted as a base line. The simple fact is that we'll either beat my predictions (and stay up), match then (squeaky bum time), or do worse (certain relegation). Usually you would look at that fixture list and think it was doable, but with this manager.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tajjuk Posted 5 February, 2018 Share Posted 5 February, 2018 Well, as happy as we all feel after WBA, we're still on course for the 36 points i predicted as a base line. The simple fact is that we'll either beat my predictions (and stay up), match then (squeaky bum time), or do worse (certain relegation). Like I said, I think anyone but Arsenal away and City at home is easily winnable. Majority of those teams are currently poor and many of them are in worst form than us, with worst injuries and (on paper at least) worst squads. If our team gets back to anywhere near the level they should be at we should win plenty of those games, also I think the away games may actually help us because those teams will not just sit back and defend which has been one of our issues this year and going back the last few seasons at home against beatable opposition. Flip side we could lose most of them, but we shouldn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint86 Posted 5 February, 2018 Author Share Posted 5 February, 2018 Like I said, I think anyone but Arsenal away and City at home is easily winnable. Majority of those teams are currently poor and many of them are in worst form than us, with worst injuries and (on paper at least) worst squads. If our team gets back to anywhere near the level they should be at we should win plenty of those games, also I think the away games may actually help us because those teams will not just sit back and defend which has been one of our issues this year and going back the last few seasons at home against beatable opposition. Flip side we could lose most of them, but we shouldn't. I absolutely hope you're right. That table is just a conservative baseline. If we are going to stay up we will outperform it imo. It will be a lot clearer after another couple of matches anyway. After the win against west brom, getting results at Burnley and Leicester certainly seems to be more likely... but that could equally just be another false dawn!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperSAINT Posted 5 February, 2018 Share Posted 5 February, 2018 This could be big. He gives them a chance in every game. @ed_aarons: Wilfried Zaha will see a specialist tomorrow after injuring his knee in the draw with Newcastle on Sunday. Expected to be out for some time #cpfc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfc6mufc3 Posted 6 February, 2018 Share Posted 6 February, 2018 Let's not be fooled by our only win in 12+ games. All we have done is kept pace (points wise) with Brighton in our last two matches and have lost ground on Bournemouth and seen us lose points against such dross as Stoke, Watford, Huddersfield, Palace, Swansea and Newcastle. Only WBA have won fewer games than us and we have only beaten the worst team in the division twice. Watford beat Chelsea, Bournemouth beat Chelsea, Swansea beat both Liverpool and Arsenal and Huddersfield beat Man United. Have we beaten any of the top 6 teams.....no! I still really fear for our survival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tajjuk Posted 6 February, 2018 Share Posted 6 February, 2018 Let's not be fooled by our only win in 12+ games. All we have done is kept pace (points wise) with Brighton in our last two matches and have lost ground on Bournemouth and seen us lose points against such dross as Stoke, Watford, Huddersfield, Palace, Swansea and Newcastle. Only WBA have won fewer games than us and we have only beaten the worst team in the division twice. Watford beat Chelsea, Bournemouth beat Chelsea, Swansea beat both Liverpool and Arsenal and Huddersfield beat Man United. Have we beaten any of the top 6 teams.....no! I still really fear for our survival. We don't need to beat anyone in the top 6 to survive, any points against Liverpool, Chelsea and Man City would be bonus points. We have to beat the likes of Stoke, Bournemouth, West Ham, Newcastle, Swansea etc. And to be fair we have drawn with Spurs, Arsenal, and Utd away, we haven't played Chelsea or Liverpool at home, who other clubs seem to be picking up points from. I'm also not worried about playing these teams away because I think it will suit us, we have dropped points at home to poor teams because they sit in for most of the game and defend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aintforever Posted 6 February, 2018 Share Posted 6 February, 2018 Looking at the fixtures and we do have the toughest run-in out of all the teams down there but if we can get results against the teams around us away from home (and we look like we could) we stand a half decent chance of staying up. Having only two ‘winnable’ home games left is a pretty **** situation to be in though. I doubt any one else will be as poor as West Brom were at home. We need to get at least 3 wins before we play Arsenal to stand a chance IMO. West Brom have 4 ‘winnable’ home games left but are playing catch up and have a tough run in after those so I can’t see them pulling away wit the form they are in. Swansea, West Ham and Huddersfield all have 5 ‘winnable’ home games left so they are well placed to pick up enough points. Newcastle, Palace and Brighton all only have 3 ‘winnable’ home games left. Brighton have a nightmare last four games (Tottenham Hotspur H, Burnley A, Manchester United H, Liverpool A) so if they are not a few points clear by then they are up against it. Palace have a nightmare run coming up where they play Everton away then 4 of the top 5 so they will probably be up to their necks for the final few games. It’s almost impossible to predict because there are so many 6 pointers and not a lot between the quality of the whole bottom half, plus there are always some freak results. But I would guess at the bottom three being West Brom, Brighton and Newcastle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfc6mufc3 Posted 12 February, 2018 Share Posted 12 February, 2018 We don't need to beat anyone in the top 6 to survive, any points against Liverpool, Chelsea and Man City would be bonus points. We have to beat the likes of Stoke, Bournemouth, West Ham, Newcastle, Swansea etc. And to be fair we have drawn with Spurs, Arsenal, and Utd away, we haven't played Chelsea or Liverpool at home, who other clubs seem to be picking up points from. I'm also not worried about playing these teams away because I think it will suit us, we have dropped points at home to poor teams because they sit in for most of the game and defend. Can you see my point now?? It seems all the teams around us have managed a fluke win against one of the top 6 but we haven't, Bournemouth, Huddersfield, Swansea and now Newcastle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southamptonfc Posted 12 February, 2018 Share Posted 12 February, 2018 Can you see my point now?? It seems all the teams around us have managed a fluke win against one of the top 6 but we haven't, Bournemouth, Huddersfield, Swansea and now Newcastle! We can't even manage a fluke win against any of those teams. Chance of going down: High Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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