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WBA v Saints - 5th Round FA Cup Thread

Edmonton Saint

By Edmonton Saint,
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Lorry_Mack

Lorry_Mack

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5th round - West Brom (Pardew)

6th round - Hull (Nige)

Semi - Spurs (Poch)

Final - Leicester (Puel)

 

Only Ronnie K missing from the complete set! That and the fact we’ll probably lose to a Rodriguez goal at WBA in the next round!

 

 

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eelpie

eelpie

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What a brilliant draw! Absolutely pumped for this one

Nah, not really. It's sh it.

 

Well look at it this way. Two relegation candidates. If we lose we have a better chance at concentrating on avoiding relegation than West Brom.

 

So what's the preferred choice. Win the FA Cup and be relegated?

Or Premiership football next season, and West Prom relegated instead of us?

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CB Fry

CB Fry

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Well look at it this way. Two relegation candidates. If we lose we have a better chance at concentrating on avoiding relegation than West Brom.

 

So what's the preferred choice. Win the FA Cup and be relegated?

Or Premiership football next season, and West Prom relegated instead of us?

Win the FA Cup.
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Globetrotter

Globetrotter

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Well look at it this way. Two relegation candidates. If we lose we have a better chance at concentrating on avoiding relegation than West Brom.

 

So what's the preferred choice. Win the FA Cup and be relegated?

Or Premiership football next season, and West Prom relegated instead of us?

 

ITK?

 

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alehouseboys

alehouseboys

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Micky Channon ripped WBA a new one,he was unplayable that night,the Dell fullhouse under floodlights omg am I that old? Saint till I die!

 

Yep, the replay was a fantastic night. We'd taken something like 10,000 up to West Brom for the first match, would think we could have around 5k for this one. Winnable.

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Suomi Saint

Suomi Saint

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Micky Channon ripped WBA a new one,he was unplayable that night,the Dell fullhouse under floodlights omg am I that old? Saint till I die!

 

Remember it well. Went straight from school via the Hythe Ferry with a few mates, still wearing our school uniforms. Great view from the boy's box at the Milton end. Happy days!

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JRM

JRM

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West Brom struggle to sell out for Premier league games so fingers crossed they price this sensibly and make tickets £15, would be good to get a decent following up there like we had at Fulham, but considering we haven’t got close to selling out for the league game this weekend I can’t see us taking more than 2500.

Hopefully stays as a Saturday 3pm kick off.

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CylonKing

CylonKing

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Well, can't really complain with West Brom as I should be able to go to the match, but out of all the midlands teams still in the Cup, it has to be the team that we're playing 2 weeks before. Would've much preferred a different ground, someone we've not played for a while, like Coventry or Notts County. Oh well, another excuse for a Balti after the match I suppose.

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sandwichsaint

sandwichsaint

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To pour some cold water on the hot balls theory it looks like the draw isn't rigged at all.

 

If you take 4 big teams and 12 other teams and let their be a random draw including H and A I make it there are 240 possible combinations of which only 12 consist of the top 4 playing each other. Last night they drew 16 ties and none of them featured any combination of big v big. That's as far as my maths goes if anyone wants to take it on from there but I'm not seeing any evidence there for the more hysterical claims that TV pay to heat up the balls (and loads and loads of old pro's/pundits are in on the scam too!).

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kwsaint

kwsaint

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To pour some cold water on the hot balls theory it looks like the draw isn't rigged at all.

 

If you take 4 big teams and 12 other teams and let their be a random draw including H and A I make it there are 240 possible combinations of which only 12 consist of the top 4 playing each other. Last night they drew 16 ties and none of them featured any combination of big v big. That's as far as my maths goes if anyone wants to take it on from there but I'm not seeing any evidence there for the more hysterical claims that TV pay to heat up the balls (and loads and loads of old pro's/pundits are in on the scam too!).

 

Ignoring who are the home and away teams, there are actually 2,027,025 ways of pairing up the 16 teams in the 5th round draw (15 x 13 x 11 x 7 x 5 x 3)

 

I made it that the odds of the four 'big' teams all avoiding each other in the draw was 8/13 - just under 2/3. So still more likely than any of them playing each other.

 

I think that the myth around heating up the balls started in Scotland, when they were supposed to do this in the later stages of the Scottish cup to keep Rangers and Celtic apart. I think that it's just that people like conspiracy theories rather than accepting the simple truth - FA cup drawers are random, Diana's death was a terrible accident, Obama was born in the USA, etc etc. Conspiracies sell newspapers.

 

Thanks for the puzzle. Made a change from the daily Sudoku. (KWSaint - BSc Maths a very long time ago)

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sandwichsaint

sandwichsaint

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Ignoring who are the home and away teams, there are actually 2,027,025 ways of pairing up the 16 teams in the 5th round draw (15 x 13 x 11 x 7 x 5 x 3)

 

I made it that the odds of the four 'big' teams all avoiding each other in the draw was 8/13 - just under 2/3. So still more likely than any of them playing each other.

 

I think that the myth around heating up the balls started in Scotland, when they were supposed to do this in the later stages of the Scottish cup to keep Rangers and Celtic apart. I think that it's just that people like conspiracy theories rather than accepting the simple truth - FA cup drawers are random, Diana's death was a terrible accident, Obama was born in the USA, etc etc. Conspiracies sell newspapers.

 

Thanks for the puzzle. Made a change from the daily Sudoku. (KWSaint - BSc Maths a very long time ago)

 

I only did Big v Big, Small v Small, Big v Small, Small v Big ... rather than basing it on 16 individual teams.

 

Big v Big is (4*4)-4, SvS is (12*12)-12, BvS (4*12)-4, SvB (12*4)-12 ... if my way is right then it gives BvB 12 times out of 240 ... I have no idea how to work out how likely BvB will come out in 16 ties.... one in twenty looks unfeasibly low but I have no idea why!

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kwsaint

kwsaint

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I only did Big v Big, Small v Small, Big v Small, Small v Big ... rather than basing it on 16 individual teams.

 

Big v Big is (4*4)-4, SvS is (12*12)-12, BvS (4*12)-4, SvB (12*4)-12 ... if my way is right then it gives BvB 12 times out of 240 ... I have no idea how to work out how likely BvB will come out in 16 ties.... one in twenty looks unfeasibly low but I have no idea why!

 

1/12 for BvB is intuitively too low. For example, Man C have an equal chance of playing any of the other 15 teams, 3 of which are 'big'. So 1/5 chance of Man C playing another big team

 

Way to work it out is to take one of the big teams. Odds of them getting a small team is 12/15. Then pick another big team. Odds of them getting a small team once the first tie is fixed is 11/13. The pick another big team. Odds of them getting a small team is 10/11 (2 ties already fixed).

 

So the chances of all of the big teams avoiding other big teams is 12/15 * 11/13 * 10/11. Which simplifies to 8/13.

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sandwichsaint

sandwichsaint

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1/12 for BvB is intuitively too low. For example, Man C have an equal chance of playing any of the other 15 teams, 3 of which are 'big'. So 1/5 chance of Man C playing another big team

 

Way to work it out is to take one of the big teams. Odds of them getting a small team is 12/15. Then pick another big team. Odds of them getting a small team once the first tie is fixed is 11/13. The pick another big team. Odds of them getting a small team is 10/11 (2 ties already fixed).

 

 

So the chances of all of the big teams avoiding other big teams is 12/15 * 11/13 * 10/11. Which simplifies to 8/13.

 

Agree (I had to draw a picture in excel to work it out though!). For a bonus point I think I was right in saying that there are 240 possible outcomes (possible ties including H and A) and only 12 of those involve BvB; your 2,000,000 number is the number of different permutations the teams could have come out of the hat.

 

Have you got the odds on us staying up;)

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IFHP

IFHP

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Well look at it this way. Two relegation candidates. If we lose we have a better chance at concentrating on avoiding relegation than West Brom.

 

So what's the preferred choice. Win the FA Cup and be relegated?

Or Premiership football next season, and West Prom relegated instead of us?

 

Win the FA Cup , with have won 1 in over 130 years, we have played top flight football for near on 50 seasons out of 130 odd years.

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Charlie Wayman

Charlie Wayman

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West Brom struggle to sell out for Premier league games so fingers crossed they price this sensibly and make tickets £15, would be good to get a decent following up there like we had at Fulham, but considering we haven’t got close to selling out for the league game this weekend I can’t see us taking more than 2500.

Hopefully stays as a Saturday 3pm kick off.

 

It's not exactly a glamour tie for them either, locals are probably muttering to themselves it's only bloody Southampton so I won't bother going.

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100%Red&White

100%Red&White

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It's not exactly a glamour tie for them either, locals are probably muttering to themselves it's only bloody Southampton so I won't bother going.

 

They seem quite up for the cup, hopefully we feel the same, a nice distraction from the usual turgid league affairs.

 

If you look on their forums they're generally happy with the draw and see it as a good chance to progress. They're also saying we'll get the entire Smethwick End unless SFC only choose to take the usual league allocation as it's not possible to split it with home fans any other way. I think it was nearer 12,000 we took up there in 1976, a different era, but it would be good to see Saints fans get a bit of cup fever again and get up there in big numbers.

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JRM

JRM

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15% is compulsory. That would be close to 4000.

 

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Away teams are "entitled" to 15% however West Brom segregation means there are only 2 options 1) the standard 2737 allocation or 2) the whole end which is about 5300

 

I believe we're entitled to the bigger allocation if we'd asked for it but FA cup rules now mean we'd have to pay for any unsold tickets in the bigger allocation unless agreed otherwise by the club's.

 

We're a few hundred short of selling out for Saturday so hardly surprising we've opted for the 2737 allocation despite the decent prices. A fair % of our fans will fit into the over 60 or u23 £10 price range.

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Shroppie

Shroppie

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Away teams are "entitled" to 15% however West Brom segregation means there are only 2 options 1) the standard 2737 allocation or 2) the whole end which is about 5300

 

I believe we're entitled to the bigger allocation if we'd asked for it but FA cup rules now mean we'd have to pay for any unsold tickets in the bigger allocation unless agreed otherwise by the club's.

 

We're a few hundred short of selling out for Saturday so hardly surprising we've opted for the 2737 allocation despite the decent prices. A fair % of our fans will fit into the over 60 or u23 £10 price range.

I am indebted for your erudite information, sir.

 

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nta786

nta786

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Away teams are "entitled" to 15% however West Brom segregation means there are only 2 options 1) the standard 2737 allocation or 2) the whole end which is about 5300

 

I believe we're entitled to the bigger allocation if we'd asked for it but FA cup rules now mean we'd have to pay for any unsold tickets in the bigger allocation unless agreed otherwise by the club's.

 

We're a few hundred short of selling out for Saturday so hardly surprising we've opted for the 2737 allocation despite the decent prices. A fair % of our fans will fit into the over 60 or u23 £10 price range.

 

 

Then we should have just taken on the whole allocation and make their ground look a bit empty, give us the best chance of support too.

It is only an extra £40,000- peanuts in football.

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Mr Brightside

Mr Brightside

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Advice please. Thinking of taking my boys to this, their first away game. Not been away myself for a while, I assume it will be standing for most of the game? If so, will my boys be able to stand on their seats (they are 12 and 10) so they can see or will the stewards tell them to get down? Want to take them but want to make sure they can see something.

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LGTL

LGTL

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You'll get a ticket easily I'd have thought. It will be stood all game but I think it's unlikely we'll sell out (we didn't for the league game) so there should be a section that's relatively empty where you could probably sit easily enough.

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