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Not that any of you REALLY believe it.....

tisspahars

By tisspahars
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tisspahars

tisspahars

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Oh it's clearly a threat - and a big one too - my point (and perhaps the point of this thread) is that the "that's it!! (for the fourteenth time) we are definitely, absolutely, utterly down with not even a tiny chance of survival" stuff is a bit OTT and completely illogical.

Saint_Tony

Saint_Tony

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The thing is the bookies are basing it on the quality of the squad. I'm aware on paper our team might look better than say, Huddersfield. However they are not performing under our manager. At 7/2 you really are unlikely to find many better value bets over the next few years. We should be even money at best. Let's make the best of a bad situation. Fill your boots!

 

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mrfahaji

mrfahaji

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The thing is the bookies are basing it on the quality of the squad. I'm aware on paper our team might look better than say, Huddersfield. However they are not performing under our manager. At 7/2 you really are unlikely to find many better value bets over the next few years. We should be even money at best. Let's make the best of a bad situation. Fill your boots!

 

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Presumably the bookies aren't basing it on anything other than betting patterns. 7/2 probably reflects that the general public look at Southampton and think "they've got some good players, and they're only a couple of wins from safety, I'm sure they'll get them". At 8/1 we were worth a bet, but we hardly look like relegation certainties. It's only the fans who watch every week who really know the sort of trouble we're in.

tisspahars

tisspahars

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Not saying this is right or wrong but thought it may interest/astonish some on here to know that we (useless, rudderless, inevitably down) are this morning the same price (to exactly the same 1/10 of a point!) as Swansea (vibrant, resurgent, clearly going to be fine).

Heisenberg

Heisenberg

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Not saying this is right or wrong but thought it may interest/astonish some on here to know that we (useless, rudderless, inevitably down) are this morning the same price (to exactly the same 1/10 of a point!) as Swansea (vibrant, resurgent, clearly going to be fine).

 

You keep referncing this "useless, rudderless, inevitably down" chat - but who has actually said this? youre trying to pass this off as the general fan/forum opinion when ive persoanlly seen maybe one or two posts (amongst 1000s) that are saying this.

 

you started off saying that nobody "REALLY" believed we would go down - youre now backtracking faster than an Italian tank

 

If we are relegated youll no doubt be telling us that you chuicked a few quid on it as you always knew. You just seem that type of poster to me.....

tisspahars

tisspahars

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If you read this thread carefully my position has been clear and consistent. We have been in trouble the whole time, my point has been that plenty on here (not all by any means, granted) have been frankly childish with their "we are down and nothing can save us" nonsense when the table, the betting odds and a grain of common sense would tell you that is drivel. We are, as we were when this thread started in trouble and we may go down, but that is not only not certain but less likely than likely as things stand. Trust this helps you Heisenberg...;)

tisspahars

tisspahars

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POST NEWCASTLE UPDATE - Unsurprisingly a major price crash into just under 2/1 to go down (market still settling though with Palace game still on, Stoke to play yet etc).

hypochondriac

hypochondriac

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Put this on a while ago and added another £20 a few weeks later when I couldn't believe the odds. Either we stay up and I'm happy or we go down and I have some cash to make me feel better. bdec792ea0b6345cfbc35c48455ec295.jpg

tisspahars

tisspahars

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WEEKLY UPDATE - Despite no game for us a significant week with Hughes appointment, confidence gained from cup win and other results seeing us out to 5/2 to go down.

  • 2 weeks later...
tisspahars

tisspahars

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POST WEST HAM UPDATE - Unsurprisingly after that debacle the mood on here is absolutely forlorn. More surprisingly (asonishingly to some i'm guessing) we are still odds against to go down at around 11/10.

Batman

Batman

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POST WEST HAM UPDATE - Unsurprisingly after that debacle the mood on here is absolutely forlorn. More surprisingly (asonishingly to some i'm guessing) we are still odds against to go down at around 11/10.
Do you think we will get relegated
Saint_Tony

Saint_Tony

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11/10 still. incredible. If it was any of the 5 teams above us in our position they'd be long odds on. Wonder when the bookies will finally realise how bad we are?

 

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tisspahars

tisspahars

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After the Stoke result we have just been matched at bigger than 6/4 on Betfair to go down, a price that seems decidedly big to me and i'm guessing to a fair few on here mind boggling.

tisspahars

tisspahars

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POST ARSENAL UPDATE - forum split between those feeling more upbeat after a much improved display and those who think everything is irrelevant except the lack of any points. Betfair market has us into 11/10 for relegation.

Batman

Batman

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.....but if you are dim enough to think we are now down and nothing can save us you can get upwards of 5/1 for your money on Betfair. Before the replies come in, yes we are obviously in a scrap, i'm merely pointing out the sheer nonsense of some of the knee jerk reactions at FT.

 

still think we are dim and all knee-jerky thinking we will go down?

Heisenberg

Heisenberg

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Relegation will give me just over £1,000

 

Ive made nearly £4k betting against Saints last 2 seasons.....trust me it helps ease the pain a little and I'll be topping up again at evens

SKD

SKD

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Relegation will give me just over £1,000

 

Ive made nearly £4k betting against Saints last 2 seasons.....trust me it helps ease the pain a little and I'll be topping up again at evens

 

I suspect that £5k will go on a few more golf trips should we go down.

OldNick

OldNick

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Easy come, easy go mate
Gamblers only brag about their big wins. A bit like golfers who can spend hours talking a bout a good shot and forget the 120 shots that went with it
Saint_clark

Saint_clark

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£300 on us to go down just before the Newcastle game returns £1350 for me. Cash out was £600 before today so with us losing and west ham winning reckon it could be up a couple hundred more.

Wasn't going to spend £600 on a season ticket in the prem next season so my logic behind placing so much was that I will be up either way...

 

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shurlock

shurlock

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Relegation will give me just over £1,000

 

Ive made nearly £4k betting against Saints last 2 seasons.....trust me it helps ease the pain a little and I'll be topping up again at evens

 

Got money on Reed to win the masters pal?

niceandfriendly

niceandfriendly

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Put this on a while ago and added another £20 a few weeks later when I couldn't believe the odds. Either we stay up and I'm happy or we go down and I have some cash to make me feel better.

 

£210 will make you feel better about our relegation? Bloody hell.

 

Could buy you a fair few pies I suppose.

DT

DT

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£300 on us to go down just before the Newcastle game returns £1350 for me. Cash out was £600 before today so with us losing and west ham winning reckon it could be up a couple hundred more.

Wasn't going to spend £600 on a season ticket in the prem next season so my logic behind placing so much was that I will be up either way...

 

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west ham winning? um

mikec

mikec

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POST ARSENAL UPDATE - forum split between those feeling more upbeat after a much improved display and those who think everything is irrelevant except the lack of any points. Betfair market has us into 11/10 for relegation.

 

Odds of 11/10 mean that the market still thinks there is a less than 50% chance of us going down. I wish I was that confident.

tisspahars

tisspahars

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POST CHELSEA UPDATE - Well, we were all the way out to about 5/2 just before Giroud scored his first.....but what followed both at St Mary's and late on in Huddersfield sees us crashing all the way to 4/7 for the drop and given the way the table looks tonight most people would say that's value.

tisspahars

tisspahars

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As an aside all those that "just knew" Chelsea would turn it around when Giroud came on could have backed them at at least 33/1 yesterday (probably more I wasn't glued to the screen all game). In addition Saints could have been layed at 1/5 (and likewise probably less).

tisspahars

tisspahars

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......and with a night to chew on it back to 1/2 so little difference from prior to kick off last night whereas the feeling on the forum seems to be that we are way way more likely to go than we were pre match.

Window Cleaner

Window Cleaner

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POST LEICESTER UPDATE - 4/9 from 4/7 to go down so the market a little less certain than the forum that this was the definitive nail.

 

Isn't 4/9 shorter odds than 4/7 ? It means that you'd have to bet 9 units to win 4 rather than 7 units to win 4 doesn't it ?

Window Cleaner

Window Cleaner

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Yes, it is shorter but not that much shorter hence my comment that the market is less definitive than the forum.

 

Ah OK. Had a look at oddschecker and I see that West Brom, Stoke and Saints are odds on for relegation with almost everyone (or with everyone) and all the other sides are not. Seems that they've made up their mind in the main. I mean no-one is going to wager a thousand £ on West Brom avoiding relegation to win a quid if a miracle happens are they. I see that there are some 4/11 and 2/5 odds on Saints as well.

  • 2 weeks later...
tisspahars

tisspahars

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POST BOURNEMOUTH UPDATE - A cracking day (in what feels like the first time in forever) with not only our win but other results seeing us all the way out to 11/8 to go down.

Sheaf Saint

Sheaf Saint

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I'm sticking with it till past the Everton game at least.

 

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Just looking at the odds on this match and Bet365 have us as slight favourites at 6/4 with Everton at 7/4.

 

WTAF!? :?

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