Who do you think will be relegated?

[Nordic Saint]

I don't think we'll get relegated this season because there are clubs with even weaker squads than ours. But we have been turned from challengers for a European place into relegation battlers and if the squad continues to get progressively weaker, our luck will run out in the next few seasons.

 

We seem to be repeating what Bolton did a decade ago. We should learn from their mistake of letting an aging, stubborn administrator have too much power at a football club.

 

I posted this some time ago on another thread:

 

If we keep Reed until he's 70, there is a danger that we will turn into the next Bolton. From 2003 to 2007, under the direction of Phil Gartside, Bolton finished in the top 8 of the Premier League in 4 consecutive seasons, qualified for Europe and finished runners-up in a League Cup Final. All the while, Gartside became ever more powerful and stubborn, ending up making nearly all decisions at the club. They then slid into the bottom half of the table, where they struggled for a few seasons before eventually getting relegated. For Phil Gartside read Les Reed.

 

"Broken Bolton: where did it all go wrong for Wanderers?"

 

"It is certainly starting to seem like a trick of the mind that Gartside was once regarded as one of the sport’s more impressive administrators, thought of so highly he was given a place on the Wembley board and put in charge of the FA’s selection process."

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2014/oct/11/phil-gartside-bolton-wanderers-abyss

[Saint Benali]

Its going to be a tough one to predict this season I think. With the players Swansea have I think they are gone. Everton will get out of there as I think Palace will too. Can't see Newcastle, Burnley, Leicester, Watford going down. Huddersfield and Brighton have made great starts but if they can keep it up who knows. It looks as though the last 2 spots will be out of Palace, WH, Stoke, Saints, WBA, Bompey. WH with Moyes in charge will go ultra defensive and pick up a few draws but think they will go down as it stands. WBA with Pullis always pull a rabbit out of the hat and escape. So my picks would be Swansea, WH and Bompey. With us surviving with a game or two spare.

[Micky]

I'd like to see Brighton stay up, purely because I think Chris Hughton deserves to get a decent crack at a solid Premier League job. In fact, I wouldn't mind us taking a punt on him next time we need a manager.

Decent shout, I'd second that.

 

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[vectraman]

Swansea to definitely go - poor squad, poor form.

WBA to go - worst form in the league this year, no sign of it improving either.

Third team to go - as other have mentioned any one from :- West Ham, Huddersfield (early season success will give way to reality, and a struggle to score points), Brighton (squad is limited if injuries to first choices occurred), Saints - if you can't score, winning is going to be a challenge - change of approach (less caution, more bravado going forward will, I'm sure turn it around), if Pellegrino will do it, if he won't, a really challenging season awaits, tough games to come in next 2 months, 11 games Vs big 6 over the season remain, will see us sink lower over November and December.

Trying to recruit anyone decent (if we indeed even try to) will be difficult if we are on the cusp of the bottom 3 in January.

Stoke I believe will battle their way safe, Bournemouth will play their way safe...

Fingers crossed that MP sees sense and changes our style of play...

[Kingsbridge Saint]

I'd like to see Brighton stay up, purely because I think Chris Hughton deserves to get a decent crack at a solid Premier League job. In fact, I wouldn't mind us taking a punt on him next time we need a manager.

 

He went all defensive trying to keep Norwich in the Premier League before getting fired just before they went down in 2013-14. So he has had a chance in the Premier League, and blew it by being too defensive. If we fire Pellegrino I wouldn't want him anywhere near the shortlist.

[mrfahaji]

He went all defensive trying to keep Norwich in the Premier League before getting fired just before they went down in 2013-14. So he has had a chance in the Premier League, and blew it by being too defensive. If we fire Pellegrino I wouldn't want him anywhere near the shortlist.

 

So if he does well with Brighton this year in the Premier League, that's irrelevant because his previous stint in the PL didn't go well?

 

I wouldn't be an advocate of Chris Hughton coming here tbh, but I'm not sure your argument stacks up logically.

[Dangermouth]

So if he does well with Brighton this year in the Premier League, that's irrelevant because his previous stint in the PL didn't go well?

 

I wouldn't be an advocate of Chris Hughton coming here tbh, but I'm not sure your argument stacks up logically.

 

He and the other poster predicate their argument solely on the past. You've added another factor so changed the basis for the argument and are talking about a potential future possiblity so with that in mind your argument might be valid but it's based on a what if. I think the Norwich fans probably felt his dependence on solidity over anything else hampered them and it does seem to be a recurring theme with his preferred style of how his teams play and I agree Hughton's too defensive. He was at Newcastle too, I seem to recollect somewhat vaguely.

 

The better question or comment might be "What constitutes a chance and a good chance?". Did Warnock get a good chance? Did Adkins? And then it's the case that do results in other leagues and competitions matter given that the PL is seen by some to be an extraordinary league. The other comment revolves around a chance with a solid team. If Newcastle weren't, who were?

[the saint in winchester]

Swansea, West Ham, Everton,

[Saint IQ]

Ideally West Ham Everton and Stoke

[Village Saint]

Ideally West Ham Everton and Stoke

 

West Ham and Everton would be perfect but sadly neither of them are likely to be candidates. Even at this stage of the season it is difficult to imagine either Swansea or Crystal Palace escaping - both have too many limited players and the habit of losing. The third team to go down will I suspect be whichever of Brighton and Huddersfield plunges furthest when the honeymoon period wears off. If I was a betting man I would suspect Brighton.

[mrfahaji]

He and the other poster predicate their argument solely on the past. You've added another factor so changed the basis for the argument and are talking about a potential future possiblity so with that in mind your argument might be valid but it's based on a what if. I think the Norwich fans probably felt his dependence on solidity over anything else hampered them and it does seem to be a recurring theme with his preferred style of how his teams play and I agree Hughton's too defensive. He was at Newcastle too, I seem to recollect somewhat vaguely.

 

The better question or comment might be "What constitutes a chance and a good chance?". Did Warnock get a good chance? Did Adkins? And then it's the case that do results in other leagues and competitions matter given that the PL is seen by some to be an extraordinary league. The other comment revolves around a chance with a solid team. If Newcastle weren't, who were?

 

The bit I took umbrage at was the idea that Hughton 'blew his chance' at a Premier League club, even though he's now back in the Premier League with a different team, and doing quite well with them. I don't disagree with all the other stuff about his approach being too defensive.

[benjii]

He went all defensive trying to keep Norwich in the Premier League before getting fired just before they went down in 2013-14. So he has had a chance in the Premier League, and blew it by being too defensive. If we fire Pellegrino I wouldn't want him anywhere near the shortlist.

 

That's fair comment but Norwich had a poor squad. I'm saying I would be interested to see how he would do with a better Premier League squad with the additional experience he has now.

[benjii]

He got Newcastle promoted and Ashley then sacked him in December with them in 12th. He appointed Pardew and they ended up finishing the season in 12th. I don't think you can say he did badly at Newcastle.

[the saint in winchester]

Swansea, West Ham, Everton,

 

I forgot the obvious candidate - Crystal Palace.

Then West Ham.

Then either Everton or Swansea, depending who Everton appoint and whether he can get them going again.

[BARCELONASAINT]

I'm really sorry to say it but at the moment i think we will go down. I honestly don't think many of our better players care...VVD wants to leave, Bertrand wants to leave, Tadic is disinterested, Redmond looks like he couldn't care less, Austin looks ****ed off. They would all be gone if we go down, so maybe it would suit them and even guarantee them a move to another Premiership club. Add to the list the players we couldn't keep hold off even if they were happy to stay and most of our starting 11 would be gone.

 

Swansea and Palace to join us or maybe WBA

[DuncanRG]

I absolutely loathe this myth that the players don't care. We've all seen teams who don't care and what happens to them - they get tonked, even by smaller teams. We may be on a bad run - and maybe we're not on that huge wave of team spirit and togetherness we had a couple of years ago - but we're still a hard working and well drilled team.

[SaintSeb]

I don't think we'll get relegated this season because there are clubs with even weaker squads than ours. But we have been turned from challengers for a European place into relegation battlers and if the squad continues to get progressively weaker, our luck will run out in the next few seasons.

 

We seem to be repeating what Bolton did a decade ago. We should learn from their mistake of letting an aging, stubborn administrator have too much power at a football club.

 

I posted this some time ago on another thread:

 

If we keep Reed until he's 70, there is a danger that we will turn into the next Bolton. From 2003 to 2007, under the direction of Phil Gartside, Bolton finished in the top 8 of the Premier League in 4 consecutive seasons, qualified for Europe and finished runners-up in a League Cup Final. All the while, Gartside became ever more powerful and stubborn, ending up making nearly all decisions at the club. They then slid into the bottom half of the table, where they struggled for a few seasons before eventually getting relegated. For Phil Gartside read Les Reed.

 

"Broken Bolton: where did it all go wrong for Wanderers?"

 

"It is certainly starting to seem like a trick of the mind that Gartside was once regarded as one of the sport’s more impressive administrators, thought of so highly he was given a place on the Wembley board and put in charge of the FA’s selection process."

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2014/oct/11/phil-gartside-bolton-wanderers-abyss

 

Not really a fair comparison in my opinion. Reed is bemoaned mostly on here for not spending enough, whereas Gartside's issue was the sheer volume of players brought in on big money (relative to the time), who they then couldn't shift or made huge losses on.

 

We've had our poor signings of course, but we don't tend to lose too much money in the market, certainly not to the extent Bolton did.

[LaptopSaint]

What he said.

 

I absolutely loathe this myth that the players don't care. We've all seen teams who don't care and what happens to them - they get tonked, even by smaller teams. We may be on a bad run - and maybe we're not on that huge wave of team spirit and togetherness we had a couple of years ago - but we're still a hard working and well drilled team.

[simo]

Palace Bompey and Wham

[Micky]

That's fair comment but Norwich had a poor squad. I'm saying I would be interested to see how he would do with a better Premier League squad with the additional experience he has now.

Would tend to agree. Just because a manager has a relegating on his CV doesn't necessarily make him a poor manager. Didn't WGS take an equally poor Coventry City down before joining us, and he didn't do too badly.

 

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Edited 14 November, 2017 by Micky

[Dangermouth]

The bit I took umbrage at was the idea that Hughton 'blew his chance' at a Premier League club, even though he's now back in the Premier League with a different team, and doing quite well with them. I don't disagree with all the other stuff about his approach being too defensive.

 

Ok. Fair enough.

[salisbury saints1]

Absolutely agree - imo our league position is inflated by a relatively easy start (only Man U at home so far played as part of the big 6). In reality I think we'll be involved in a relegation scrap but have just about sufficient to keep clear. Hopefully this will be the wake call to the owners they need to invest in attacking players. However, I thought Everton would kick on from last year and compete for top 6.........

[Heisenberg]

If (god forbid) we are relegated I will collect best part of £2k from the bookies.

 

Summer relegation odds of 50/1 now at 14/1 I see

 

Bookies favorites are still Swansea (8/13) Palace (8/11) and Huddersfield (5/2)

 

We seem to be as likely as Everton, Burnley, Stoke and Newcastle according to betting sites

[Nordic Saint]

Absolutely agree - imo our league position is inflated by a relatively easy start (only Man U at home so far played as part of the big 6). In reality I think we'll be involved in a relegation scrap but have just about sufficient to keep clear. Hopefully this will be the wake call to the owners they need to invest in attacking players. However, I thought Everton would kick on from last year and compete for top 6.........

 

I don't think the Chinese government will allow Mr Gao to get any more money out of China. It took him a lot of time and subterfuge to raise the 200 million to pay Kat and he's probably going to have to use the club's Premier Leage income to pay back the loans he took out to do that.

[ALWAYS_SFC]

I don't think the Chinese government will allow Mr Gao to get any more money out of China. It took him a lot of time and subterfuge to raise the 200 million to pay Kat and he's probably going to have to use the club's Premier Leage income to pay back the loans he took out to do that.

 

Did he borrow from them then?

[shurlock]

Did he borrow from them then?

 

How's that relevant?

[ALWAYS_SFC]

How's that relevant?

 

Following me around again then i see

[SKD]

Following me around again then i see

 

Again, how is this relevant? I think he asked a sensible question, which as of yet you've failed to answer.

[shurlock]

Following me around again then i see

 

Nope not at all.

 

I have a particular interest in the takeover (as my previous posts amply demonstrate). I'm asking you a question on that subject, unlike your posts which are all about me and never about the substance. Simple distinction, even for a simpleton like you to clock.

 

Now again what is the relevance of whether the Chinese government lent Gao money or not?

 

Play the post, not the poster, pal.

Edited 15 November, 2017 by shurlock

[ALWAYS_SFC]

Again, how is this relevant? I think he asked a sensible question, which as of yet you've failed to answer.

 

Sorry, did`nt realise you were in his band of merry men

 

He accuses me of following him around and makes his brand of "oh so clever wit" about it when its clearly him with an issue with me sadly for him

so i do not respond to his carp with anything sensible as he has an inability to do so to mine...

[shurlock]

Again, how is this relevant? I think he asked a sensible question, which as of yet you've failed to answer.

 

The point was plainly irrelevant and staggeringly ignorant.

 

The Chinese government has been beefing up capital account controls for nearly two years to stop cash leaving China (despite liberalisation being an explicit goal of the government's 12th Five Year Plan in 2012). This has gone as far as installing facial recognition software in ATMs in places like Macau which are hotspots to move money out of China.

 

All this has affected not only overseas business investment but also ordinary private Chinese -whether it's paying tuition fees, buying property or simply shopping while on holiday.

 

Signs are that these recent efforts have been working, though nobody can tell for sure how much money is leaving through the underground banking system. We're still at least a decade away from full capital account liberalisation when Chinese can take money out of the country without restriction.

Edited 15 November, 2017 by shurlock

[ALWAYS_SFC]

Nope not at all.

 

I have a particular interest in the takeover (as my previous posts amply demonstrate). I'm asking you a question on that subject, unlike your posts which are all about me and never about the substance. Simple distinction, even for a simpleton like you to clock.

 

Now again what is the relevance of whether the Chinese government lent Gao money or not?

 

Play the post, not the poster, pal.

 

 

Yep you should try it

[whelk]

Few managerial changes since most predictions. West Ham continue to be dreadful. Newcastle are on terrible run too. 1pt from last 6 games assuming lose today.

 

I’ll stick with mine (WBA, Swansea and Huddersfield) for now

[Saint-Fred]

Palace, West Ham and Huddersfield.

[Dellman]

When it comes to relegation I look for clubs with chaos off the field as much as problems on the field, so I think Huddersfield will be ok--well run and well managed--and probably Palace will escape for the same reason. It is Hammers who look in trouble and Swansea used to be well run but have messed up recently. And the third one? Well, we are a bit confused with unknown owners who are missing and have no money but recent form says we will be ok. That leaves Stoke and WBA. So it is WHU, Swansea and WBA. I would have said Everton a week ago, that's how quickly it can all change.

[Dark Munster]

When it comes to relegation I look for clubs with chaos off the field as much as problems on the field, so I think Huddersfield will be ok--well run and well managed--and probably Palace will escape for the same reason. It is Hammers who look in trouble and Swansea used to be well run but have messed up recently. And the third one? Well, we are a bit confused with unknown owners who are missing and have no money but recent form says we will be ok. That leaves Stoke and WBA. So it is WHU, Swansea and WBA. I would have said Everton a week ago, that's how quickly it can all change.

You seem to have forgotten that Pulis never gets relegated.

 

Oh ...

[Trevor in Vancouver]

Swansea

West Ham

Newcastle

[sadoldgit]

swansea, palace, saints*

 

*if MP remains all season

 

As ever, you are a little ray of sunshine.

[eelpie]

Its going to be a tough one to predict this season I think. With the players Swansea have I think they are gone. Everton will get out of there as I think Palace will too. Can't see Newcastle, Burnley, Leicester, Watford going down. Huddersfield and Brighton have made great starts but if they can keep it up who knows. It looks as though the last 2 spots will be out of Palace, WH, Stoke, Saints, WBA, Bompey. WH with Moyes in charge will go ultra defensive and pick up a few draws but think they will go down as it stands. WBA with Pullis always pull a rabbit out of the hat and escape. So my picks would be Swansea, WH and Bompey. With us surviving with a game or two spare.

 

Quite good. But I far we'll leave it till the last game, since we are so brittle.

And we don't have Le Tiss on the pitch this time.

[the saint in winchester]

Swansea, West Ham, Everton,

 

I forgot the obvious candidate - Crystal Palace.

Then West Ham.

Then either Everton or Swansea, depending who Everton appoint and whether he can get them going again.

 

He has!

Today I say Swansea, West Ham and Palace.

Weekly updates available.

[Fitzhugh Fella]

He has!

Today I say Swansea, West Ham and Palace.

Weekly updates available.

 

West Ham have got some good players, I reckon Huddersfield may falter over the winter although their home support will do their best to sustain them.

[Eric The Red]

Unless something radical changes I think Swansea and Huddersfield are odds on favourites and based on form to date WHam would be my 3rd choice But I think all the teams below us are at risk. One team that is quietly dropping is Newcastle.

[James]

Swansea, Palace and Newcastle I reckon.

 

West Ham will be close. We will be far closer to the drop than some think even despite a couple of improved performances.

[whelk]

Forever changing as was Swansea and who else. Now it is Huddersfield and who else. Would love it to be Stoke. Think will be WBA and Newcastle.

 

Odds this morning - we are a generous 15/2

 

[Batman]

yes I do think we will go. the manager is terrible

 

Huddersfield will go and it will be out of Stoke, WBA and Palace to join us

 

palace has a horrible run in the next 4 games but after that, it is all teams around us.

 

what is good for us is that the last game of the season is Swansea v Stoke and WBA v Palace....

Edited 11 February, 2018 by Batman

[Dusic]

Swansea have confidence and a goodnrun of fixtures so don't see them dropping.

 

Hopefully WBA get buried and Hudds continue their poor form.

 

I think WBA, Hudds and either Palace or Newcastle, but could easily be us if we don't win 2 of our next 6.

[simo]

Swansea have confidence and a goodnrun of fixtures so don't see them dropping.

 

Hopefully WBA get buried and Hudds continue their poor form.

 

I think WBA, Hudds and either Palace or Newcastle, but could easily be us if we don't win 2 of our next 6.

 

We're unbeaten in 2018 and should also have some confidence and have some favourable fixtures coming up , I've cashed my relegation bet in for a small profit ! A couple of wins against our rivals in the games coming up can bump you up to 10th/11th atm.

[CB Fry]

We're unbeaten in 2018 .

 

Except we're not.

[simo]

Except we're not.

 

Apart from the palace game

[Baird of the land]

Brighton, Stoke & Huddersfield. For some reason i think WBA will have enough to get out of the whole they are in.