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Can we finish higher than eighth in the 2017-18 season?


SaintJackoInHurworth

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I said this last season, that even with Puel in charge, we would finish higher than 8th.

 

The fact is, that all of the top 6 clubs have European football. At least one, possibly two, will struggle. Liverpool is my bet - they only just got 4th spot, with only the League to play for. They struggled the season before that with the demands of European football.

 

Everton will definitely finish lower than 7th - they'll struggle to replicate their league form whilst playing every other Thursday. That is, of course, assuming that Koeman can get them past the qualifying rounds... ;)

 

We were the 'best of the rest' whilst having indifferent form. I think Leicester and us will be competing to be in the Champions League places. I'm sure Heisenberg will quote me at the end of the season (if he doesn't get banned before then) but I'll put my neck on the line and say that's where we will be.

 

Not finishing higher than 8th will prove though that the decision to sack Puel was a mistake, so there are no excuses.

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My take on things is we should get more points next season. Whether that will move us up the league who knows? Everton I believe as other have said are the most obviously catchable, assuming we don't lose any first team starters.

 

As others have said, we really do need a second quality centreback to partner VVD, another DM to partner Romeu, and an attacking midfielder who knows what the goal looks like.

 

Would be a handy double bonus if these players were experienced in the PL, and tall, as we seem to have an unbelievably small team, and seemed to be bullied off the ball a lot.

 

I'd like to know the stats for keeping possession of the ball when Forster had to kick long - our tiny tots in midfield invariably lost it to the opposition. If the new manager likes to press teams, I'm not sure that Tadic or JWP have the speed and stamina to play that style of game either...

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Not without a couple of signing to improve the first XI in central midfield and centre back.

 

Simple question is who of last seasons top 7 can we finish ahead of realistically. Everton are the only ones really, but they have made some clever signings since January and have a good Manager.

 

BUT will be losing VIRTUALLY all of their goals...

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On paper they all have better squads than us right now. Still a long window where we can look to strengthen while others may weaken.

Lukaku/Sanchez/Costa are all rumoured to be going. 69 goals 23 assists just between those 3. Absolutely ridiculous. Compare that to our 41 goals total with our top scorer being Redmond with 7.

There's every chance one of the top 7 weaken's like we did this season rather than strengthens, and they're all competing in Europe this year while we aren't. 7th is possible and should probably be the expectation on MoPe.

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BUT will be losing VIRTUALLY all of their goals...

 

Worth reading this

 

https://www.sportskeeda.com/football/can-elite-striker-win-you-premier-league-in-depth-analysis

 

its pretty amazing but apparently Lukaku only scored one goal that actually made the difference to Everton winning all season. In all the other cases Everton would have got a result in the game without his goals..:?

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Leicester went and won the entire league! So no, the top 4 is not 'mental', considering we were only 3 points off in 2016.

 

Leicester finished the season before winning seven out of the last nine games and starting the following season still on a high don't think we are in quite the same position..

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Leicester finished the season before winning seven out of the last nine games and starting the following season still on a high don't think we are in quite the same position..

 

It would be a hell of a drug that make a high last that long!

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BUT will be losing VIRTUALLY all of their goals...

 

I have a hard time seeing anyone paying the 100m they want for Lukaku and if he does gets sold, they will sell 25 goals which should be covered (at least close to it) with Klaassen and Ramirez. Both should be able to get 10 in over a season.

 

You can say what ever you want about Everton but if they succeed to land Keane as well, then they have one hell of a transfer window even if they lose Lukaku and Barkley.

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I have a hard time seeing anyone paying the 100m they want for Lukaku and if he does gets sold, they will sell 25 goals which should be covered (at least close to it) with Klaassen and Ramirez. Both should be able to get 10 in over a season.

 

You can say what ever you want about Everton but if they succeed to land Keane as well, then they have one hell of a transfer window even if they lose Lukaku and Barkley.

 

Time will tell i guess but with the extra games on Thursday`s it will be tough as we found out with RK and CP

 

If they don`t sell Lukaku this year he will be cheap next as i believe he is out of contract next year

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Top 4 finish what crack you lads on? Being realistic I reckon 9th - 11th. Will be a season if adjustment with a new gaffer. Unless we significantly strengthen and get in another decent def mid, Winger and a Fonte replacement. When I say winger somebody like that Icelandic Swansea lad... Break the bank get it done we are crying out for creativity.

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Top 4 finish what crack you lads on? Being realistic I reckon 9th - 11th. Will be a season if adjustment with a new gaffer. Unless we significantly strengthen and get in another decent def mid, Winger and a Fonte replacement. When I say winger somebody like that Icelandic Swansea lad... Break the bank get it done we are crying out for creativity.

 

Lol, only 9th-11th?! People were practically in tears for finishing only 8th, can't wait for the meltdown if we finish lower.

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Lol, only 9th-11th?! People were practically in tears for finishing only 8th, can't wait for the meltdown if we finish lower.

 

That's not true though, isit.

 

People were, rightly IMO, unhappy with the style of football, lack of entertainment / value for money at home and disharmony in the dressing room.

 

It appears the 'Puel in' camp are still making things up.

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Weirdly think we could've finished higher than eighth with Puel at the helm next season...

 

Nothing weird about that, all the elements were there but European football and not getting breaks between games has affected much better sides than Saints. Everything we need to finish in the top 6 is still in place, unless we get to two cup finals next season we'll do much better in terms of points and competitively against this season's top 7.

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Not without a couple of signing to improve the first XI in central midfield and centre back.

 

Simple question is who of last seasons top 7 can we finish ahead of realistically. Everton are the only ones really, but they have made some clever signings since January and have a good Manager.

 

Everton and Liverpool have to contend with Europe and didn't last season and are the prime candidates to drop off as a result of Europe, just like Liverpool in particular have done EVERY time they've been in Europe recently. Everton don't yet have the squad depth to cope with Europa League though they might not qualify.

 

Chelsea haven't played in Europe for a year either, though it's unlikely they'll fall off as badly as they did last time they won the league, last time they had to balance defending the title and playing in Europe they came 10th - can't see that happening but they won't be able to just focus on the League this time around which gave them a huge advantage.

 

You'd expect Man U to be up there, and they won't have to play more games than they did this time around, but if Mourinho does what he did in his second season at Chelsea, they'll be up for grabs too - and they've only finished in the top 4 once in 4 seasons.

 

Anything could happen at Arsenal, they're overreliant on Sanchez and Wenger staying might be a comfort zone for some of the squad.

 

Can't see us catching Manchester City but it'll be interesting to see how Guardiola reacts to not being a contender last season.

 

Spurs are basically "Saints with more money", so given the otherwise level playing field on that front and similar recruitment etc., I don't see us coming ahead of them unless they have an injury crisis and we don't.

 

No reason to think we won't get a boost from not being in Europe and some teams in Europe will fall back as a result.

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Worth reading this

 

https://www.sportskeeda.com/football/can-elite-striker-win-you-premier-league-in-depth-analysis

 

its pretty amazing but apparently Lukaku only scored one goal that actually made the difference to Everton winning all season. In all the other cases Everton would have got a result in the game without his goals..:?

 

It actually says his goals were worth 8 points to them. Plus it considers goals scored first less important than winning goals, which is clearly nonsense, because without the first goal, the winning goal is worth 2 fewer points as well. The long and short of it is that if they lose Lukaku, the player they replace him with is likely to be less influential.

 

Either way, 8 fewer points for them, plus the impact of Europe on their points return, and the converse impact of NOT being in Europe for us, plus the evidence about us not converting chances, as opposed to the myth of Saints not being attacking enough, all adds up to them being worse and us being better.

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That's not true though, isit.

 

People were, rightly IMO, unhappy with the style of football, lack of entertainment / value for money at home - can't argue that was the case for some people, but it's only one point made three times, and the same people complaining about all three.

 

and disharmony in the dressing room. - of which there is only hearsay and speculation as evidence.

 

It appears the 'Puel in' camp are still making things up. - seems to be the Puel Outs doing that to me (see above)

 

My comments in red, obviously.

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If we keep our best players and buy 4 £20m ones we'll have a shot at 4-6th.

Then we do the same for a few more years.

Football is well simple.

Players needs to be brainwashed NC style into believing that if they stick together they will get CL footy. Footballers are easily brainwashed. But CL footy, those words should never be mentioned in the press.

 

Yep NC said they would - he went and so did they

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Top 4 finish what crack you lads on? Being realistic I reckon 9th - 11th. Will be a season if adjustment with a new gaffer. Unless we significantly strengthen and get in another decent def mid, Winger and a Fonte replacement. When I say winger somebody like that Icelandic Swansea lad... Break the bank get it done we are crying out for creativity.

 

We created exactly the same number of chances as Arsenal last season (albeit not with as high a likelihood of those chances ending up as goals). What we need is an attacking midfielder who can shoot, or a way of getting the supporting players in the right positions if we're going to keep attacking from out wide and not finding teammates in the box. The stuff leading up to that was mostly fine. I've already shared the stats-led comments about how bad we were at scoring chances and saving/blocking shots, that data still exists and is still valid no matter how many more times people insist we weren't attacking and didn't create chances (both of which are inaccurate).

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Yep NC said they would - he went and so did they

 

They also only came 8th. Had he invested beyond the first XI*, they probably would have done a lot better. We now have a team that has finished in the same position and has a squad of similarly able players supporting it. So why does everyone suddenly think we're going to get worse?

 

*Not possible, probably due to him not having enough money set aside from Markus' account for the club whilst the estate was being administered, hence Cortese angling to get more and him eventually leaving when Katharina decided the debt accumulation and overspending wasn't the best way to get stable, middle term success.

Edited by The9
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If, and that is a big if, we keep VVD and Cedric then I think Pellegrino has a better deck of cards to play than poor Puel did. Specifically:

 

- no European games means less rotation needed before Xmas

- Chelsea, Liverpool and Everton facing European football which they didn't have last season. Chelsea probably not so relevant for us, the other two may be

- Gabbi here from the start

- only Davis and Long at an age where they may begin to decline

- Stephens, Boufal, PEH all likely to improve second season

 

For these reasons alone I would expect us to gain more points than last season without any real magic applied. Five to ten points perhaps? So I think we could improve our league position, particularly if we have better luck with injuries than last season in the case of VVD and Austin.

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If, and that is a big if, we keep VVD and Cedric then I think Pellegrino has a better deck of cards to play than poor Puel did. Specifically:

 

- no European games means less rotation needed before Xmas

- Chelsea, Liverpool and Everton facing European football which they didn't have last season. Chelsea probably not so relevant for us, the other two may be

- Gabbi here from the start

- only Davis and Long at an age where they may begin to decline

- Stephens, Boufal, PEH all likely to improve second season

 

For these reasons alone I would expect us to gain more points than last season without any real magic applied. Five to ten points perhaps? So I think we could improve our league position, particularly if we have better luck with injuries than last season in the case of VVD and Austin.

 

No it's not.

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That's not true though, isit.

 

People were, rightly IMO, unhappy with the style of football, lack of entertainment / value for money at home and disharmony in the dressing room.

 

It appears the 'Puel in' camp are still making things up.

 

We could play beautiful, sexy football all season long, the fact of the matter is, if we don't improve on 8th, that will be a massive failure.

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If, and that is a big if, we keep VVD and Cedric then I think Pellegrino has a better deck of cards to play than poor Puel did. Specifically:

 

- no European games means less rotation needed before Xmas

- Chelsea, Liverpool and Everton facing European football which they didn't have last season. Chelsea probably not so relevant for us, the other two may be

- Gabbi here from the start

- only Davis and Long at an age where they may begin to decline

- Stephens, Boufal, PEH all likely to improve second season

 

For these reasons alone I would expect us to gain more points than last season without any real magic applied. Five to ten points perhaps? So I think we could improve our league position, particularly if we have better luck with injuries than last season in the case of VVD and Austin.

 

A succinct summary of my views, cheers. :)

 

Apart from the points... I'm anticipating about 25 more.

Edited by The9
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We could play beautiful, sexy football all season long, the fact of the matter is, if we don't improve on 8th, that will be a massive failure.

 

I think "massive failure" is overdoing it. I was with you for most of the season on Puel, and think it's possible that he might've done ok this season as well. However, do you not think it is telling that the club decided to get rid of him? Perhaps pointing to some issues behind the scenes? And even the most ardent supported of Puel would find it hard to argue that we stuttered our way to 8th place. I made a joke on one thread that 1pt from our last two games could feasibly be enough, and maybe we'd draw it 0-0. And that's what happened.

 

I guess the way I look at it, in terms of points/position, is that scoring more points means winning more games, and that's why I enjoy. Would you rather, in a given week, Saints lost but went up a position because the team above us lost by a bigger margin, or Saints win but dropped a place because another team won by more that week? Scoring more points might not guarantee finishing higher up, but it does give us a better chance of it.

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Don't know about finishing higher but if we get more points, improve our dire home record and score more goals I'll be happy. The goal has to be improving over the season before. The good thing is Les said none of our key players are for sale so we should go into next season a lot more settled than the previous ones.

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:rolleyes: more than 46 points = success

:rolleyes: more than 17 home goals = success

:rolleyes: 1 win over the top 6 sides = success

:rolleyes: getting more points than AFCB = success

:rolleyes: not needing to listen to Puel speak **** = success

 

 

MaPe will deliver, but might take time to recover this squad from the physiological damage Puel and Black have caused.... That cant be underestimated.

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I think "massive failure" is overdoing it. I was with you for most of the season on Puel, and think it's possible that he might've done ok this season as well. However, do you not think it is telling that the club decided to get rid of him? Perhaps pointing to some issues behind the scenes? And even the most ardent supported of Puel would find it hard to argue that we stuttered our way to 8th place. I made a joke on one thread that 1pt from our last two games could feasibly be enough, and maybe we'd draw it 0-0. And that's what happened.

 

I guess the way I look at it, in terms of points/position, is that scoring more points means winning more games, and that's why I enjoy. Would you rather, in a given week, Saints lost but went up a position because the team above us lost by a bigger margin, or Saints win but dropped a place because another team won by more that week? Scoring more points might not guarantee finishing higher up, but it does give us a better chance of it.

 

I get your point, but it is a league, and after the end of it, we finished 8th.

 

I hope we a) are a lot closer to the top 4 (or even in it, as I have predicted... (come on Heisenberg, quote me) ) and b) win more games. I'd still argue though that the final position is more important because of the prize money involved. We received more money than our mid-table rivals, which could be significant.

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I get your point, but it is a league, and after the end of it, we finished 8th.

 

I hope we a) are a lot closer to the top 4 (or even in it, as I have predicted... (come on Heisenberg, quote me) ) and b) win more games. I'd still argue though that the final position is more important because of the prize money involved. We received more money than our mid-table rivals, which could be significant.

 

Whilst of course useful receiving higher merit payments doesn't make a huge difference. You could argue more entertaining football will mean more TV games which offsets. Stoke never get anything other than bare minimum for facility (TV) fees.

In 2015/16 Stoke came 9th and from PL payments were less than £6m better off in total than Newcastle who went down. Even with the newer tv deal not exactly figures that give you edge over rivals.

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And the people who say be happy with 12th if we entertain. They won't be and will be moaning why are the clubs between us and 8th are out performing us and we need to be more pragmatic and close out games etc.

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And the people who say be happy with 12th if we entertain. They won't be and will be moaning why are the clubs between us and 8th are out performing us and we need to be more pragmatic and close out games etc.

Correct. Even last season if we had precisely the same points and finished in exactly the same position, but just conceded and scored 15 more goals each, this forum would have been in utter raving meltdown about clueless Les destroying our once great defense. No fu cker would be swooning over how entertaining it all was.

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They also only came 8th. Had he invested beyond the first XI*, they probably would have done a lot better. We now have a team that has finished in the same position and has a squad of similarly able players supporting it. So why does everyone suddenly think we're going to get worse?

 

*Not possible, probably due to him not having enough money set aside from Markus' account for the club whilst the estate was being administered, hence Cortese angling to get more and him eventually leaving when Katharina decided the debt accumulation and overspending wasn't the best way to get stable, middle term success.

 

FFS are you still going on about Puel? He has gone..the club decided he was ****e and sacked him....are you hoping he is coming back?

 

I see he has been linked with all the vacant jobs,..NOT.. No other club in England will have him.

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I get your point, but it is a league, and after the end of it, we finished 8th.

 

I hope we a) are a lot closer to the top 4 (or even in it, as I have predicted... (come on Heisenberg, quote me) ) and b) win more games. I'd still argue though that the final position is more important because of the prize money involved. We received more money than our mid-table rivals, which could be significant.

 

With the lowest points total for that position since the Premier League moved to a 20-team format, i.e. 22 seasons. I'm not knocking Puel, just highlighting that it is potentially unjust to qualify an 8th place finish next season as par, because we could finish on significantly more points - teams have finished 8th with 61 points. And for anyone curious, 46 points -7GD would've landed you a top half finish in 3 of the past 22 seasons, and would usually result in a 13th place finish.

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With the lowest points total for that position since the Premier League moved to a 20-team format, i.e. 22 seasons. I'm not knocking Puel, just highlighting that it is potentially unjust to qualify an 8th place finish next season as par, because we could finish on significantly more points - teams have finished 8th with 61 points. And for anyone curious, 46 points -7GD would've landed you a top half finish in 3 of the past 22 seasons, and would usually result in a 13th place finish.

 

That's mainly because TV money. 8th-18th are all getting massive money now and it's an even playing field. That meant almost all of them strengthened and traded points off each other. Look at the transfer net spend, teams like palace spending £40m+ net while we had the lowest spend of all and actually made £13m profit. Regardless of your thoughts on Puel, you can't argue that our squad weakened and most teams strengthened.

The top 7 also scored the most points they have in at least the last decade (I only looked 10 years, maybe 22 years). A weird season on the back of a weirder one (Leicester winning) where a lot of the top teams didn't have Europe and could really focus on the league.

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With the lowest points total for that position since the Premier League moved to a 20-team format, i.e. 22 seasons. I'm not knocking Puel, just highlighting that it is potentially unjust to qualify an 8th place finish next season as par, because we could finish on significantly more points - teams have finished 8th with 61 points. And for anyone curious, 46 points -7GD would've landed you a top half finish in 3 of the past 22 seasons, and would usually result in a 13th place finish.

 

Were we or were we not the 8th best team in England for season 2016/17?

 

 

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That's mainly because TV money. 8th-18th are all getting massive money now and it's an even playing field. That meant almost all of them strengthened and traded points off each other. Look at the transfer net spend, teams like palace spending £40m+ net while we had the lowest spend of all and actually made £13m profit. Regardless of your thoughts on Puel, you can't argue that our squad weakened and most teams strengthened.

The top 7 also scored the most points they have in at least the last decade (I only looked 10 years, maybe 22 years). A weird season on the back of a weirder one (Leicester winning) where a lot of the top teams didn't have Europe and could really focus on the league.

 

What is? The lowest points total for 8th? I'll assume that's what you meant, because I'm too impatient to wait for you to clarify :D Reference the moneys, haven't 8th-20th been on a relatively level playing field since the advent of Sky football? I can't see why that would be exclusive to last season. 8th-20th trading points off of one another sounds like a regular season of football to me ;) Something we arguably did very well at last season, given our record against those above. So, yeah, I'm not sold on that being the reason for why 46 points nabbed us 8th last year....yet :thumbup:

 

P.S On reflection, it's probably more a case of your latter paragraph. The one about top 7 point totals (and I think it's fair to assume that's at the expense of everyone else). I guess if one drilled down into how each team placed 8th and below performed against the top 7 over recent season it might paint a picture :thumbup:

Edited by Donatello
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Were we or were we not the 8th best team in England for season 2016/17?

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

What gets me is the hypocrisy. There is absolutely no way that people will complain if we end up with 10 more points but finish in the bottom half. No way whatsoever...

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What gets me is the hypocrisy. There is absolutely no way that people will complain if we end up with 10 more points but finish in the bottom half. No way whatsoever...

 

Some feat, given that it has never happened in the PL era.

 

Anyway, I'm not sure how anyone could be accused of hypocrisy over a situation which won't come to fruition for close to a year :lol: What I am sure about is, in spite of someone specifically clarifying that they weren't mentioning a piece of information in relation to Puel (but rather the idea that finishing below 8th would be a "massive failure", and by extension 8th would be par at best), that you, Always, or Duckhunter would be along to save the day - 2 outta 3 ain't bad. I guess the 14th of June was only 17 days ago #toosoon :cry:

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Some feat, given that it has never happened in the PL era.

 

Anyway, I'm not sure how anyone could be accused of hypocrisy over a situation which won't come to fruition for close to a year :lol: What I am sure about is, in spite of someone specifically clarifying that they weren't mentioning a piece of information in relation to Puel (but rather the idea that finishing below 8th would be a "massive failure", and by extension 8th would be par at best), that you, Always, or Duckhunter would be along to save the day - 2 outta 3 ain't bad. I guess the 14th of June was only 17 days ago #toosoon :cry:

 

What are you going on about?

 

Under Koeman we were the 6th best team in England. Last season we were the 8th best team. Therefore we went backwards under Puel than we did under Koeman. If we finish lower than 8th best next season, he'd have done worse than Puel. 7th above will be better. It's really not that hard to grasp.

 

 

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I expect of all of those teams Liverpool will suffer the most. They need about 7 players in total to compete on all fronts. - Their defending is woeful and two of their best player will be at AFCON in January.

 

They will be there on their own then. The next one is 2019 as its every two years.

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