Inside The Black Box

[Kingsbridge Saint]

Have a read of this - it's an awesome independent appraisal of our clubs approach to the game. It's a long read and might challenge some who prefer the knee jerk to investing time to develop a deeper understanding, but it made me proud of the club and it's pioneering approach.

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2717975-inside-the-southampton-black-box-informing-their-manager-carousel

[Convict Colony]

great article thanks

[The9]

Good, coherent article, but the only thing it tells me that I didn't already know is that someone thinks we don't get a lot of injuries. Anyone who didn't already realise our core stability and refusal to knee-jerk decisions is one of the main reasons we've been outperforming the rest of the Premier League just hasn't been paying attention.

 

The problem we're going to have is that our relative success comes from being competent in a sea of incompetence and wastefulness. When the others start to do the same things, where's our competitive advantage then? Doing things "The Southampton Way" is only going to work for so long if the process doesn't evolve - though with the rumoured takeover pending, anything could happen.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if we're relatively quiet with our signings this summer, knowing that the cost of everything is through the roof. Or that we switch to exploit different markets where costs are much lower to get value, as we have done for a few years now.

[lickierambert]

I was interested to hear that we only really scout Europe. I think given the inflating transfer fees and scouting networks picking up bargains in Europe is going to get tougher and tougher.

 

Take Sadio Mane-the day will come when we need to pick him up from Senegal and not Red Bull Salzburg

[The9]

I was interested to hear that we only really scout Europe. I think given the inflating transfer fees and scouting networks picking up bargains in Europe is going to get tougher and tougher.

 

Take Sadio Mane-the day will come when we need to pick him up from Senegal and not Red Bull Salzburg

 

Actually, yeah that's a fair point as well, had assumed that based on signings but didn't know it was definitely the case.

[VectisSaint]

There were only nine days between Puel's being sacked and Pellegrino's being confirmed as his replacement, showing how the dossier enables the club to act decisively in appointing new managers.

 

Only 9 days after Puel was sacked. More than 3 weeks after it was known he would go. Far from showing how good this was it actually shows how we had no replacement in mind. Do people seriously believe the Black Box is so wonderful or that our structure is so little affected by change of manager. Every new manager has brought a change of style. The whole Southampton Way business really is just bull**** and changes with the mind of Les Reed in my opinion.

[S-Clarke]

South American market is a tricky market, especially for clubs like ourselves. You've got the added complications of work permits, players being on the other side of the world to their families etc. It often takes a good couple of seasons for a young South American player (who was bought directly from there) to actually kick on in the PL (if they ever do...). Given that they would still likely cost a fair $$$, I don't think we're in a position to splurge big money on someone who probably won't make an impact for a couple of seasons.

 

Chelsea have tried to exploit that market with the likes of Kennedy and Nathan, but both are still not in their first team. I think Liverpool have a Brazilian in their ranks as well who cost upwards of £6m, Allan possibly? but he's still in their reserve team.

 

Notable exception being Jesus, but he did cost City £30m and is more of the finished article than many others over there.

[Marsdinho]

That article is a rehash of the artlices they published when we appointed both Koemann and Puel. In fact, every time we appoint a new manager, or player....that report comes out. Almost word for word.

[Monk]

Hmmmmmm

[The9]

There were only nine days between Puel's being sacked and Pellegrino's being confirmed as his replacement, showing how the dossier enables the club to act decisively in appointing new managers.

 

Only 9 days after Puel was sacked. More than 3 weeks after it was known he would go. Far from showing how good this was it actually shows how we had no replacement in mind. Do people seriously believe the Black Box is so wonderful or that our structure is so little affected by change of manager. Every new manager has brought a change of style. The whole Southampton Way business really is just bull**** and changes with the mind of Les Reed in my opinion.

 

It shows we had multiple replacements in mind and needed to go through a set of processes to narrow that down, to me.

 

To me the "Southampton Way" thing is about retaining things like the core of the Academy infrastructure, the principles of wanting to get young players into the first team, less palatably the ethos of buying, developing and selling at a profit, and generally retaining the overall direction and aims. The first team is the high profile part of that, but all the other stuff, all the direction-giving and decision-making retains the same direction irrespective of the first-team manager. If you think it changes on the whim of Les, what do you think has changed? First team tactics will change based on what everyone else is doing and are the one thing I would expect to vary over the last 5 years, also depending on who develops and who doesn't. Fundamentally we've been nuanced variants of a 4-5-1 for the whole time, whether 4-2-3-1, 4-3-3 or whatever. But the rest of it seems to be very consistent.

 

Other clubs do things like make a new managerial appointment directly leading to a rash of short term "here and now" changes to bring in the players they have identified, which cost a fortune and deliver very small incremental gains if gains at all. Example - Palace signing a load of Allardyce players like Benteke, are they going to fit De Boer's ideas or will they splash out another couple of hundred million signing slightly different players for more or less the same result? Our method minimises the manager's role in this overall, so we never buy PURELY on a manager's recommendation - but at the same time the stuff like player character are the toughest to evaluate without meeting the player, so there are situations where we've signed players we're tracking based on the individuals knowing the player already.

 

It did seem to happen a lot more with Koeman though, and was cited as a reason we weren't as bothered he left by the club when they spun that.

[cellone]

I like the lack off injuries and that there is no time for self congratulation when you're busy bragging.

[Fan The Flames]

There were only nine days between Puel's being sacked and Pellegrino's being confirmed as his replacement, showing how the dossier enables the club to act decisively in appointing new managers.

 

Only 9 days after Puel was sacked. More than 3 weeks after it was known he would go. Far from showing how good this was it actually shows how we had no replacement in mind. Do people seriously believe the Black Box is so wonderful or that our structure is so little affected by change of manager. Every new manager has brought a change of style. The whole Southampton Way business really is just bull**** and changes with the mind of Les Reed in my opinion.

 

How does it demonstrate that we didn't have a replacement in mind?

 

We have had three managers in the last four years and four years of top ten top flight finishes, the first time ever. That suggest that something at the club is working ok.

[shurlock]

There were only nine days between Puel's being sacked and Pellegrino's being confirmed as his replacement, showing how the dossier enables the club to act decisively in appointing new managers.

 

Only 9 days after Puel was sacked. More than 3 weeks after it was known he would go. Far from showing how good this was it actually shows how we had no replacement in mind. Do people seriously believe the Black Box is so wonderful or that our structure is so little affected by change of manager. Every new manager has brought a change of style. The whole Southampton Way business really is just bull**** and changes with the mind of Les Reed in my opinion.

 

Agree. Does anyone honestly believe Pellegrino was on the club's radar for years and years - as opposed to having one v.good season at Alaves (including an away win at Barca - Les and the black box are suckers for anything Barca-related). He then happened to be out of a job, presenting the club an opportunity (would we have approached him, say, if he was still at the helm of Alaves?).

 

Not saying it is or will be a bad appointment - just that there are too many people looking for a grand, unified theory of everything rather than acknowledging that like life, its a messy, opportunistic, reactive and often short-term business.

Edited 27 June, 2017 by shurlock

[Noodles34]

Remind what the difference between 'the Southampton Way' and the 'West Ham Way', just a different marketing agency?

[S-Clarke]

Remind what the difference between 'the Southampton Way' and the 'West Ham Way', just a different marketing agency?

 

West Ham have a 'way'?

[lickierambert]

West Ham have a 'way'?

 

Yes, it's a charming mix of delusion, disappointment and airing dirty laundry on twitter

[Wurzel]

Remind what the difference between 'the Southampton Way' and the 'West Ham Way', just a different marketing agency?

 

Southampton Way is the B217 running between Camberwell and Peckham.

West Ham are not deemed worthy of a way, but there is a West Ham Lane in Basingstoke.

 

To be fair, looking at those locations not sure which of us comes out the better from that

[The9]

Remind what the difference between 'the Southampton Way' and the 'West Ham Way', just a different marketing agency?

 

Ours has a plan. Theirs just involves throwing as much money as possible at anyone they think might have an idea. They have a "School of Science" anyway, as they proved when appointing Sam Allardyce.

[CB Fry]

Agree. Does anyone honestly believe Pellegrino was on the club's radar for years and years - as opposed to having one v.good season at Alaves (including an away win at Barca - Les and the black box are suckers for anything Barca-related). He then happened to be out of a job, presenting the club an opportunity (would we have approached him, say, if he was still at the helm of Alaves?).

 

Not saying it is or will be a bad appointment - just that there are too many people looking for a grand, unified theory of everything rather than acknowledging that like life, its a messy, opportunistic, reactive and often short-term business.

This is true. What probably doesn't change much is the person specification. But, like every club on earth, we assess the market and likely candidates at the point of need.

 

I don't believe we have "tracked" any of our recent managerial recruits more than any other club. We are, however, better at working out what kind of manager we want and I assume we are pretty good at interviewing.

[CB Fry]

...and I assume we are pretty good at interviewing.

 

WITH THE FIRST QUESTION BEING "ARE YOU A GUTLESS YES MAN WHO ONLY EVER SAYS YES AND IS GUTLESS AND A YES-MAN???"

[whelk]

I hope he got a question about the previous incumbent not showing passion.....Can you tell us about a time........ and he yelled 'Mira mi puto hombro'

[whelk]

And I have heard we now use 23andme and are tracking embryos #longgame

[The9]

This is true. What probably doesn't change much is the person specification. But, like every club on earth, we assess the market and likely candidates at the point of need.

 

I don't believe we have "tracked" any of our recent managerial recruits more than any other club. We are, however, better at working out what kind of manager we want and I assume we are pretty good at interviewing.

 

Pretty sure we have a bunch of people we keep tabs on, just so we know who's available if we're suddenly in a position of needing to get someone in. I don't think that is in any way onerous though, and we probably have some kid in a cupboard checking a spreadsheet every month or two and reporting to a senior manager somewhere. No idea how you'd set metrics for management (other than the badges everyone has to have anyway), so I should think it's less "black box" and more "the kind of check list someone put on Saintsweb last week".

[sandwichsaint]

Remind what the difference between 'the Southampton Way' and the 'West Ham Way', just a different marketing agency?

 

Saints are solidly M&S with the occasional S&M for high-days and holidays: West Ham will always be fur coat and no knickers.

[Saint_clark]

I was interested to hear that we only really scout Europe. I think given the inflating transfer fees and scouting networks picking up bargains in Europe is going to get tougher and tougher.

 

Take Sadio Mane-the day will come when we need to pick him up from Senegal and not Red Bull Salzburg

 

I guess that's the biggest downfall of using such a statistic oriented system - countries and leagues with poor coverage will not turn up as much data for you to sift through.

[Kingsbridge Saint]

Remind what the difference between 'the Southampton Way' and the 'West Ham Way', just a different marketing agency?

 

Martin Samuels is a West Ham fan and 'the Southampton Way' has clearly got up his nose. This part of the article might be a clue about why he writes so much vindictive bile about us:

 

'From summer 2010 to the end of 2016/17, Southampton had a net spend of £18.6 million, according to transfermarkt; West Ham, who finished below Southampton for the past four seasons, had a net spend of £135 million in this time'.

[larry12]

There were only nine days between Puel's being sacked and Pellegrino's being confirmed as his replacement, showing how the dossier enables the club to act decisively in appointing new managers.

 

Only 9 days after Puel was sacked. More than 3 weeks after it was known he would go. Far from showing how good this was it actually shows how we had no replacement in mind. Do people seriously believe the Black Box is so wonderful or that our structure is so little affected by change of manager. Every new manager has brought a change of style. The whole Southampton Way business really is just bull**** and changes with the mind of Les Reed in my opinion.

 

You are not allowed to criticise Les Reed. It's an abslute no-no. In Les we trust. A bit of fine tuning and we will score loads of goals, miraculously. Trust Les.

[ALWAYS_SFC]

You are not allowed to criticise Les Reed. It's an abslute no-no. In Les we trust. A bit of fine tuning and we will score loads of goals, miraculously. Trust Les.

 

Every thread... just bore off

[Toadhall Saint]

You are not allowed to criticise Les Reed. It's an abslute no-no. In Les we trust. A bit of fine tuning and we will score loads of goals, miraculously. Trust Les.

 

Bit of criticism is ok but on here you would have thought all of the worlds problems were because of him. I've said it before and will in all likelihood say it again - LR has been outstanding for our club.

[Saint86]

Bit of criticism is ok but on here you would have thought all of the worlds problems were because of him. I've said it before and will in all likelihood say it again - LR has been outstanding for our club.

 

Calm down.

 

I don't anyone has said he is the fat korean guy's dad

[ALWAYS_SFC]

Bit of criticism is ok but on here you would have thought all of the worlds problems were because of him. I've said it before and will in all likelihood say it again - LR has been outstanding for our club.

 

Calm down.

 

I don't anyone has said he is the fat korean guy's dad

 

His post is completely calm and spot on, it is the those with the "Anti Reed agenda" who need to calm down..

[The9]

You are not allowed to criticise Les Reed. It's an abslute no-no. In Les we trust. A bit of fine tuning and we will score loads of goals, miraculously. Trust Les.

 

It's hardly miraculous if our finishing returns to the statistical mean, as opposed to being outlier-levels of crap like it was last season.

[shurlock]

It's hardly miraculous if our finishing returns to the statistical mean, as opposed to being outlier-levels of crap like it was last season.

 

#toddlerwithamachete

[AR-10]

The club monitors a lot more than that.

 

I've been in it.

 

https://www.saintsweb.co.uk/showthread.php?56947-How-does-the-Black-Box-work&p=2384653#post2384653

 

And they don't monitor Africa..aye alright then lol.

[The9]

The club monitors a lot more than that.

 

I've been in it.

 

https://www.saintsweb.co.uk/showthread.php?56947-How-does-the-Black-Box-work&p=2384653#post2384653

 

And they don't monitor Africa..aye alright then lol.

 

Your logic leaves a lot to be desired. "In the last 3 seasons alone over 500 players have been through it, we certainly have not signed 500 players, so that is

testimony to the accuracy of the system." I'd probably expect a lot more than 500 players over 3 years, but as we wouldn't sign 500 players in 3 years in any circumstance I'm fairly sure it tells you absolutely nothing about the accuracy of the system.