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Weekend 22/23 April - Other Games

Batman

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Batman

Batman

Posted
Posted

Right then, anyone bothering to watch any of the 'worlds best league' on the box this afty?

 

Thinking of Swansea v Stoke myself.....must win for the swans (and have them in my accy)

S-Clarke

S-Clarke

Posted
Posted

Huge games for all the teams at home this afternoon.

 

I expect Hull to win today, so anything less than a win for Swansea and it is goodnight Vienna - no survival Sunday this year.

ALWAYS_SFC

ALWAYS_SFC

Posted
Posted
Right then, anyone bothering to watch any of the 'worlds best league' on the box this afty?

 

Thinking of Swansea v Stoke myself.....must win for the swans (and have them in my accy)

 

Everton surely, super manager on show

striker

striker

Posted
Posted

Swansea have scored one goal in their last 6 matches and have gotten just 1 point. Hull on the other hand have shown improved form. I'm rooting for Swansea (not sure why), but they need to turn it around.

Charlie Wayman

Charlie Wayman

Posted
Posted

Could be down to 12th before Tuesday. Hull won't beat Watford and Stoke will murder Swansea. I'd rather have points than games in hand especially ones against Arsenal, Manure & the Scousers. Chelsea will murder us.

Lord Duckhunter

Lord Duckhunter

Posted
Posted
Could be down to 12th before Tuesday. Hull won't beat Watford and Stoke will murder Swansea. I'd rather have points than games in hand especially ones against Arsenal, Manure & the Scousers. Chelsea will murder us.

 

Liverpool isn't a game in hand

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

S-Clarke

S-Clarke

Posted
Posted
Could be down to 12th before Tuesday. Hull won't beat Watford and Stoke will murder Swansea. I'd rather have points than games in hand especially ones against Arsenal, Manure & the Scousers. Chelsea will murder us.

 

You chat so much rubbish.

striker

striker

Posted
Posted

Put a fork in MID, they are going down with SUN. On the other hand, I think Burnley and CP are now in the relegation hunt for spot #3 now also (along with Swansea and Hull)

shurlock

shurlock

Posted
Posted
annoying. Cashed out on my accy just after Hull scored as Watford had been on top ALL GAME

2 mins later, Hull score again

 

ffs.

 

You realise the bookies are taking you for a ride. A mathematical piece of advice: do singles, never do accys.

striker

striker

Posted
Posted

In my opinion, CP is the one who's really in trouble here. They end with Liverpool, Spurs, Burnley, and Man City. That could be 4 losses. Then they end at home against Hull, which could be the deciding match for relegation spot #3.

whelk

whelk

Posted
Posted
You realise the bookies are taking you for a ride. A mathematical piece of advice: do singles, never do accys.

 

When you want a bit of interest and a low stake an acca is just fine. Fckin Ipswich[emoji3]

ScepticalStan

ScepticalStan

Posted
Posted
Danny Murphy blaming that on Lloris. If that's a GK error, Forster's in the league cup final definitely was. Indeed Forster's was much worse.

 

Yup. For both goals.

 

The only reason you'd never really describe them as an error is that they never have a chance to go under his dive because he never actually manages to dive that far.

shurlock

shurlock

Posted
Posted (edited)
When you want a bit of interest and a low stake an acca is just fine. Fckin Ipswich[emoji3]

 

The problem with accumulators isn't the fact they're riskier -in principle you're rewarded for that risk. It's that they compound the house edge -or the theoretical profit bookies will make at your expense.

 

Take a coin toss: the probability you'll guess correctly is 0.5. A bookie should give you even odds (£2 for £1 wagered including initial stake).

 

In reality they'll offer odds closer to 4/5 to ensure their profit. That is £1 wagered will return only £1.80 which is a payout ratio of 90% (1.8/2).

 

This is for a single bet - imagine you enter an accy and attempt to guess five coin tosses in a row. The basic multiplication rule that accompanies the independence of events in probability theory compounds the punters disadvantage, eroding the payout percentage. Assuming the same odds of 4/5, for a five-fold accy, the bookies will pay out only 59% (0.9*0.9*0.9*0.9*0.9) of what they'd pay out if they were giving you the underlying probability of the events happening.

 

In other words, it's much better to bet big on a single event or find a single event with large odds and minimise the house edge.

 

The house edge pervades everything: for instance, the probability of a football match finishing as a home win, draw or away win is always 1 or 100%; yet the odds are always set to pay out a lot less. For instance, Skybet's payout ratio for the Chelsea-Spurs prematch odds was 96%.

 

As I say it's bad enough for singles; it's much worse for accys - don't let Chris Kamara in Lycra fool you.

Edited by shurlock
whelk

whelk

Posted
Posted

I used to work in betting industry and understand how the book is set. I know from super 6 how hard it is to predict anything. But as said when I only want to risk a couple of quid I don't want £6 back on that but go for £150 - never get it of course!

shurlock

shurlock

Posted
Posted
I used to work in betting industry and understand how the book is set. I know from super 6 how hard it is to predict anything. But as said when I only want to risk a couple of quid I don't want £6 back on that but go for £150 - never get it of course!

 

The point isnt about the inherent difficulty of predicting multiple events - in theory you could be adequately rewarded for that additional risk. The point is that by compounding the house edge, the payout ratio of an accy comes nowhere near reflecting that difficulty. A single with odds 50/1 will always give you much better value than an accy with odds of 50/1, unless there's phenomenal mispricing going on.

shurlock

shurlock

Posted
Posted
And also won on euro millions the other day. At a return of roughly 60/1 for a 38000+/1 chance

 

Exactly. Imagine converting the bet into an accy -and doing it twice in a row. The payout ratio would be even more of a stitch-up.

simo

simo

Posted
Posted
The problem with accumulators isn't the fact they're riskier -in principle you're rewarded for that risk. It's that they compound the house edge -or the theoretical profit bookies will make at your expense.

 

Take a coin toss: the probability you'll guess correctly is 0.5. A bookie should give you even odds (£2 for £1 wagered including initial stake).

 

In reality they'll offer odds closer to 4/5 to ensure their profit. That is £1 wagered will return only £1.80 which is a payout ratio of 90% (1.8/2).

 

This is for a single bet - imagine you enter an accy and attempt to guess five coin tosses in a row. The basic multiplication rule that accompanies the independence of events in probability theory compounds the punters disadvantage, eroding the payout percentage. Assuming the same odds of 4/5, for a five-fold accy, the bookies will pay out only 59% (0.9*0.9*0.9*0.9*0.9) of what they'd pay out if they were giving you the underlying probability of the events happening.

 

In other words, it's much better to bet big on a single event or find a single event with large odds and minimise the house edge.

 

The house edge pervades everything: for instance, the probability of a football match finishing as a home win, draw or away win is always 1 or 100%; yet the odds are always set to pay out a lot less. For instance, Skybet's payout ratio for the Chelsea-Spurs prematch odds was 96%.

 

As I say it's bad enough for singles; it's much worse for accys - don't let Chris Kamara in Lycra fool you.

 

I made 167 quid from a 5er while I slept a couple of weeks ago, would have been more had I not bottled it and cashed out when bompey got one back against Chelsea! Singles is too much faffing about

Dark Munster

Dark Munster

Posted
Posted
Best manager ever though

Yes, he's world class according to some. :lol:

I'm getting quite fond of Chelsea. Provided they don't bottle it in the league, they've done a great job this season.

Bad Wolf

Bad Wolf

Posted
Posted

I like Spurs. And Poch. And Wanyama. I have no reason not to. I'd rather see them do well than any of the other top 7.

 

Poch has spoken very highly of us since he left and the paragraph Wanyama wrote on his departure showed what a class bloke he is. How Morgan is more thought of (especially after his brattish tweet that time) than Big Vic baffles me.

 

The hate our fans have for Spurs is a bit weird. I think we're they're Bournemouth. They saw two managers they wanted and offered them jobs. Same with Wanyama and Bale. That's just how football works.

 

Good luck to them.

Professor

Professor

Posted
Posted

After this weekend's games so far, we are still in 9th place but how much pride can we take in that. We are there today only because Watford and Stoke lost to teams that are struggling against relegation. We are only 9 points above the relegation zone ourselves. This year's Premier league has become an Elite League of 7 teams and The Rest. The 9th place is very fragile and doesn't hide the fact that we are one of The Rest and it would have only taken a couple more defeats for us to be hovering above the drop. With Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal to come, even the games in hand could be a mirage.

If playing in the Europa League groups and reaching the EFL Cup Final has made anyone think this hasn't been a disappointing season that could be a serious mistake. For this club to be secure in the Premier League something needs to change for next season. One change we know of, is that without European football we won't have to use the rotation policy but will that be enough? In a way, I won't mind if we do drop to something like 13th or 14th over the next few weeks because it might take that to show the Board that action is needed in the close season for the club to raise its game for next year.

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