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Weekend 22/23 April - Other Games


Batman

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Could be down to 12th before Tuesday. Hull won't beat Watford and Stoke will murder Swansea. I'd rather have points than games in hand especially ones against Arsenal, Manure & the Scousers. Chelsea will murder us.

 

You chat so much rubbish.

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annoying. Cashed out on my accy just after Hull scored as Watford had been on top ALL GAME

2 mins later, Hull score again

 

ffs.

 

You realise the bookies are taking you for a ride. A mathematical piece of advice: do singles, never do accys.

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In my opinion, CP is the one who's really in trouble here. They end with Liverpool, Spurs, Burnley, and Man City. That could be 4 losses. Then they end at home against Hull, which could be the deciding match for relegation spot #3.

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Danny Murphy blaming that on Lloris. If that's a GK error, Forster's in the league cup final definitely was. Indeed Forster's was much worse.

 

Yup. For both goals.

 

The only reason you'd never really describe them as an error is that they never have a chance to go under his dive because he never actually manages to dive that far.

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When you want a bit of interest and a low stake an acca is just fine. Fckin Ipswich[emoji3]

 

The problem with accumulators isn't the fact they're riskier -in principle you're rewarded for that risk. It's that they compound the house edge -or the theoretical profit bookies will make at your expense.

 

Take a coin toss: the probability you'll guess correctly is 0.5. A bookie should give you even odds (£2 for £1 wagered including initial stake).

 

In reality they'll offer odds closer to 4/5 to ensure their profit. That is £1 wagered will return only £1.80 which is a payout ratio of 90% (1.8/2).

 

This is for a single bet - imagine you enter an accy and attempt to guess five coin tosses in a row. The basic multiplication rule that accompanies the independence of events in probability theory compounds the punters disadvantage, eroding the payout percentage. Assuming the same odds of 4/5, for a five-fold accy, the bookies will pay out only 59% (0.9*0.9*0.9*0.9*0.9) of what they'd pay out if they were giving you the underlying probability of the events happening.

 

In other words, it's much better to bet big on a single event or find a single event with large odds and minimise the house edge.

 

The house edge pervades everything: for instance, the probability of a football match finishing as a home win, draw or away win is always 1 or 100%; yet the odds are always set to pay out a lot less. For instance, Skybet's payout ratio for the Chelsea-Spurs prematch odds was 96%.

 

As I say it's bad enough for singles; it's much worse for accys - don't let Chris Kamara in Lycra fool you.

Edited by shurlock
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I used to work in betting industry and understand how the book is set. I know from super 6 how hard it is to predict anything. But as said when I only want to risk a couple of quid I don't want £6 back on that but go for £150 - never get it of course!

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I used to work in betting industry and understand how the book is set. I know from super 6 how hard it is to predict anything. But as said when I only want to risk a couple of quid I don't want £6 back on that but go for £150 - never get it of course!

 

The point isnt about the inherent difficulty of predicting multiple events - in theory you could be adequately rewarded for that additional risk. The point is that by compounding the house edge, the payout ratio of an accy comes nowhere near reflecting that difficulty. A single with odds 50/1 will always give you much better value than an accy with odds of 50/1, unless there's phenomenal mispricing going on.

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The problem with accumulators isn't the fact they're riskier -in principle you're rewarded for that risk. It's that they compound the house edge -or the theoretical profit bookies will make at your expense.

 

Take a coin toss: the probability you'll guess correctly is 0.5. A bookie should give you even odds (£2 for £1 wagered including initial stake).

 

In reality they'll offer odds closer to 4/5 to ensure their profit. That is £1 wagered will return only £1.80 which is a payout ratio of 90% (1.8/2).

 

This is for a single bet - imagine you enter an accy and attempt to guess five coin tosses in a row. The basic multiplication rule that accompanies the independence of events in probability theory compounds the punters disadvantage, eroding the payout percentage. Assuming the same odds of 4/5, for a five-fold accy, the bookies will pay out only 59% (0.9*0.9*0.9*0.9*0.9) of what they'd pay out if they were giving you the underlying probability of the events happening.

 

In other words, it's much better to bet big on a single event or find a single event with large odds and minimise the house edge.

 

The house edge pervades everything: for instance, the probability of a football match finishing as a home win, draw or away win is always 1 or 100%; yet the odds are always set to pay out a lot less. For instance, Skybet's payout ratio for the Chelsea-Spurs prematch odds was 96%.

 

As I say it's bad enough for singles; it's much worse for accys - don't let Chris Kamara in Lycra fool you.

 

I made 167 quid from a 5er while I slept a couple of weeks ago, would have been more had I not bottled it and cashed out when bompey got one back against Chelsea! Singles is too much faffing about

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I like Spurs. And Poch. And Wanyama. I have no reason not to. I'd rather see them do well than any of the other top 7.

 

Poch has spoken very highly of us since he left and the paragraph Wanyama wrote on his departure showed what a class bloke he is. How Morgan is more thought of (especially after his brattish tweet that time) than Big Vic baffles me.

 

The hate our fans have for Spurs is a bit weird. I think we're they're Bournemouth. They saw two managers they wanted and offered them jobs. Same with Wanyama and Bale. That's just how football works.

 

Good luck to them.

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After this weekend's games so far, we are still in 9th place but how much pride can we take in that. We are there today only because Watford and Stoke lost to teams that are struggling against relegation. We are only 9 points above the relegation zone ourselves. This year's Premier league has become an Elite League of 7 teams and The Rest. The 9th place is very fragile and doesn't hide the fact that we are one of The Rest and it would have only taken a couple more defeats for us to be hovering above the drop. With Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal to come, even the games in hand could be a mirage.

If playing in the Europa League groups and reaching the EFL Cup Final has made anyone think this hasn't been a disappointing season that could be a serious mistake. For this club to be secure in the Premier League something needs to change for next season. One change we know of, is that without European football we won't have to use the rotation policy but will that be enough? In a way, I won't mind if we do drop to something like 13th or 14th over the next few weeks because it might take that to show the Board that action is needed in the close season for the club to raise its game for next year.

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