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General election? June 8th?

trousers

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buctootim

buctootim

Posted
Posted
Here's the aforementioned Corbyn interview

 

He objected to a general shoot to kill policy and instead backed proportionate force, including deadly force if necessary. No-one in their right minds would want security services given a blanket right to shoot to kill. Otherwise you end up like the UIS where you can get shot for running away from a traffic officer.

 

Their are plenty of real views to debate. Theres no need to make views up.

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Batman

Batman

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He objected to a general shoot to kill policy and instead backed proportionate force, including deadly force if necessary. No-one in their right minds would want security services given a blanket right to shoot to kill. Otherwise you end up like the UIS where you can get shot for running away from a traffic officer.

 

Their are plenty of real views to debate. Theres no need to make views up.

 

do you think he was commenting on the US shoot to kill policy in the first place? or the current one used by UK security services that he now all of a sudden defends?

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moonraker

moonraker

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do you think he was commenting on the US shoot to kill policy in the first place? or the current one used by UK security services that he now all of a sudden defends?

 

What do you think, oops i forgot you dont think you just react!

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OldNick

OldNick

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but it is not cut and dried is it. I feel for the Policeman with the gun who has to decide whether he is allowed to shoot or not. A split second and he might be dead himself if he is not sure of his position
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buctootim

buctootim

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but it is not cut and dried is it. I feel for the Policeman with the gun who has to decide whether he is allowed to shoot or not. A split second and he might be dead himself if he is not sure of his position

 

What Corbyn has said is no different to what happens already - shootings must be within the law. The whole argument about shoot to kill is a political construct designed only to portray him as soft on crime and terror. In reality there is no civil shoot to kill policy and anybody authorising / working to one would be in court on murder charges. What we have is a minimum necessary force policy, which is what everybody, Tories, Labour and police have worked to for decades, if not centuries.

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OldNick

OldNick

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What Corbyn has said is no different to what happens already - shootings must be within the law. The whole argument about shoot to kill is a political construct designed only to portray him as soft on crime and terror. In reality there is no civil shoot to kill policy and anybody authorising / working to one would be in court on murder charges. What we have is a minimum necessary force policy, which is what everybody, Tories, Labour and police have worked to for decades, if not centuries.

It comes down if you believe he is a weak man who thinks that he can be soft on terrorist regimes/groups. Personally I dont think he would give the Police etc the backing that most of us want. He may of course being portrayed wrongly but his actions and words have hardly been convincing.

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Nolan

Nolan

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Been busy all day & now watching the news.

 

Seems Corbyn has called for May to resign. Funny I thought there was an election on Thursday.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

On sky news they show Jezza getting really angry when this is pointed out to him.

 

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

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Nolan

Nolan

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So has Steve Hilton.

Strangely Steve Hilton has a TV show starting on Fox News today... It's almost as if he's chucking something out to seek publicity.

 

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

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shurlock

shurlock

Posted
Posted (edited)
Strangely Steve Hilton has a TV show starting on Fox News today... It's almost as if he's chucking something out to seek publicity.

 

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

 

I didn't realise you were telepathic and knew his inner motives, Les mini me.

Edited by shurlock
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Millbrook Saint

Millbrook Saint

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Posted
Such a gutsy leader our Theresa

740a6eb49b85ee2806bdc839160fd3e5.jpg

 

Without trying to be rude, you do understand politics do you? Theresa May will hopefully be the one who has to deal with Trump in the future, getting into a public spat is not what she would want to do, and nor should she, no matter how the press try and goad her into it. I'm sure she will raise any concerns with him in private, which is how it should be.

 

It's nice and easy for people in other parties who know they have no real chance of having to deal with Trump to get on their high horse and have a go but the prime minister has to show a bit more class.

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benjii

benjii

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Without trying to be rude, you do understand politics do you? Theresa May will hopefully be the one who has to deal with Trump in the future, getting into a public spat is not what she would want to do, and nor should she, no matter how the press try and goad her into it. I'm sure she will raise any concerns with him in private, which is how it should be.

 

It's nice and easy for people in other parties who know they have no real chance of having to deal with Trump to get on their high horse and have a go but the prime minister has to show a bit more class.

 

Agree. Trump puts people between a rock and a hard place with these sort of antics.

 

I'm sure she thinks he's a dinlow and a liability but saying it isn't going to help.

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shurlock

shurlock

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Without trying to be rude, you do understand politics do you? Theresa May will hopefully be the one who has to deal with Trump in the future, getting into a public spat is not what she would want to do, and nor should she, no matter how the press try and goad her into it. I'm sure she will raise any concerns with him in private, which is how it should be.

 

It's nice and easy for people in other parties who know they have no real chance of having to deal with Trump to get on their high horse and have a go but the prime minister has to show a bit more class.

 

Yet the French and German leaders don't have a problem being direct.

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whelk

whelk

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Without trying to be rude, you do understand politics do you? Theresa May will hopefully be the one who has to deal with Trump in the future, getting into a public spat is not what she would want to do, and nor should she, no matter how the press try and goad her into it. I'm sure she will raise any concerns with him in private, which is how it should be.

 

It's nice and easy for people in other parties who know they have no real chance of having to deal with Trump to get on their high horse and have a go but the prime minister has to show a bit more class.

 

Classic British subservience. So he can slag of London's mayor but you expect diplomacy back. That is the problem - same with the Saudis and why so few have any faith in leaders having any integrity or conviction.

 

Glad we are severing ties with Europe and rely on our cosy little special relationship bs - such a reciprocal agreement eh?

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Millbrook Saint

Millbrook Saint

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Classic British subservience. So he can slag of London's mayor but you expect diplomacy back. That is the problem - same with the Saudis and why so few have any faith in leaders having any integrity or conviction.

 

Glad we are severing ties with Europe and rely on our cosy little special relationship bs - such a reciprocal agreement eh?

 

No, Classic British class and integrity, aren't we always taught to raise above the bait, just because we're not shouting it from the roof tops doesn't mean we're not letting Trump know our feelings about it.

 

Agree with the 'special relationship' bit, nothing makes me cringe more than when I hear politicians of any party spouting that, we're Britain, we brought democracy to the world, we should be a little more proud of our achievements and more confident of our standing in the world instead of kowtowing to any other nation, that includes the EU.

 

Oh and we're not severing ties with Europe, we're restoring governance to our great country, I'm sure we would all love keep a nice close relationship with Europe, it just seems like the blowhards over there feel that the thing to do is punish a whole nation of people for exercising their democratic right

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shurlock

shurlock

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Posted
No, Classic British class and integrity, aren't we always taught to raise above the bait, just because we're not shouting it from the roof tops doesn't mean we're not letting Trump know our feelings about it.

 

Agree with the 'special relationship' bit, nothing makes me cringe more than when I hear politicians of any party spouting that, we're Britain, we brought democracy to the world, we should be a little more proud of our achievements and more confident of our standing in the world instead of kowtowing to any other nation, that includes the EU.

 

Oh and we're not severing ties with Europe, we're restoring governance to our great country, I'm sure we would all love keep a nice close relationship with Europe, it just seems like the blowhards over there feel that the thing to do is punish a whole nation of people for exercising their democratic right

 

Les? Is that you?

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shurlock

shurlock

Posted
Posted (edited)

These general polls are singularly useless as a guide.

 

It might be that the parties are a close at a national level but the Tory lead is much wider in marginals in which case it's all over for Labour. National polls obscure this difference and thus bias upwards Labour's electoral prospects. It's a mystery why pollsters don't poll marginals more systematically - the practice is much more established in the US.

 

Philip Stephens from the FT suggests that ministerial gossip has it that anything less than a majority of 50 would be a serious disappointment. A happy ending for May would be a margin of over 70. Of course when Thatcher beat Michael Foot in 1983, she won a majority of 144.

 

Will go for a majority of 60-75, though I'm basically guessing.

Edited by shurlock
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buctootim

buctootim

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Posted (edited)
So a general election with all the inherent expense for absolutely sod all then.....

 

I wouldnt say that. It will have utterly screwed May as a credible leader. Unfortunately it will also install Corbyn as one. She will be dumped as PM, then we will have another unelected PM who will want their own mandate and we can do it all again in a couple of years after another referendum on the dodgy Brexit deal. Hours of fun yet.

Edited by buctootim
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Manuel

Manuel

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Posted (edited)

Abbot doesn't seem right. On drugs or ill or something. I'm no fan of hers but she's not usually incoherent to this extent, a bit batty certainly but usually 'alert'!

 

**$sed perhaps.

Edited by Manuel
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hypochondriac

hypochondriac

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Abbot doesn't seem right. On drugs or ill or something. I'm no fan of hers but she's not usually incoherent to this extent, a bit batty certainly but usually 'alert'!

Agreed. I generally hate her but she seems spaced out at the moment- I almost felt a bit sorry for her.

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shurlock

shurlock

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Agreed. I generally hate her but she seems spaced out at the moment- I almost felt a bit sorry for her.

 

You might disagree or not like Abbott. But why do you (generally) hate her? You seem to hate a lot of people, pal.

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hypochondriac

hypochondriac

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You might disagree or not like Abbott. But why do you (generally) hate her? You seem to hate a lot of people, pal.

 

I think Abbott is a racist whose identity politics does more to divide and upset this country than most other politicians I have seen. I don't hate her personally as I don't know her but I certainly despise the ideology she represents and many of her actions. I don't believe I've ever claimed to hate anyone else on here pal so not sure why you felt the need to add that comment.

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shurlock

shurlock

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Posted (edited)
I think Abbott is a racist whose identity politics does more to divide and upset this country than most other politicians I have seen. I don't hate her personally as I don't know her but I certainly despise the ideology she represents and many of her actions. I don't believe I've ever claimed to hate anyone else on here pal so not sure why you felt the need to add that comment.

 

So you hate her in the same way you hate Katie Hopkins, then?

 

Identity politics - depending on what you mean by it, it may be profoundly flawed but it's not intentionally divisive. Not sure why Abbott gets you so worked up - she has an odd effect on some parts of the public. I certainly find her pompous and complacent and despite her progressive pretensions, very elitist. But the same can be said about a lot of politicians.

Edited by shurlock
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buctootim

buctootim

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Posted
No evidence, so far, that the under-30s intend to go out and vote, a key ssumption in some of the closer polls:

 

https://www.ft.com/content/127f8778-49e6-11e7-919a-1e14ce4af89b

 

I can believe only 50% of under 30s will vote but doubt that is a drop from 2015. The FT article claims 62% of the same age group voted in 2015 - but the nationwide turnout for all age groups was only 66%. Seems suspect.

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Lord Duckhunter

Lord Duckhunter

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One indicator if you don't trust the polls ( which are all over the place) is where the leaders are campaigning.

 

If you look at that it doesn't indicate much concern in Tory HQ. She was in Wales today, recently she went to Don valley number 104 in the list of target seats , a seat which has been labour since the 1920's & their majority is 9k odd. Crosby isn't an idiot, if internal polling & feedback from the doorstep matched the polls , surely she'd be in marginals & Tory areas with small majorities?

 

Corbyn hasn't been in the marginals much either, probably because he's toxic in these. I just can't see how you swing marginals if your leader has to stay away, rather than chooses to stay away.

 

It's also worth noting how many times Farron has visited his own constituency, extremely unusual for a leader.

 

Based on this & my gut feeling, I'm going with May majority of 87, provided things stay pretty much as they are today.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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shurlock

shurlock

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I can believe only 50% of under 30s will vote but doubt that is a drop from 2015. The FT article claims 62% of the same age group voted in 2015 - but the nationwide turnout for all age groups was only 66%. Seems suspect.

 

Seems the survey is biased towards those who are more politically engaged, despite its best efforts. In 2015, 43% of 18-24s and 54% of 25-34s voted respectively, a figure that is significantly lower than the 62% of respondents who voted.

 

Of course, many respondents likely responded before the Manifestos came out, the dementia tax fiasco and Corbyn's surge in exposure which roughly took place in the final week/ten days of the survey period. Notwithstanding this, you'd still expect numbers to be slightly higher.

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buctootim

buctootim

Posted
Posted

I just looked again at the 2010 election, only 7 years ago. The combined left vote of Labour and LDs was 52% whilst the Tories and UKIP were only 39.2%. With the LDs and UKIP now largely out of the picture somehow it doesn't seem so hard now to imagine Labour doing well.

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buctootim

buctootim

Posted
Posted (edited)
Based on this & my gut feeling, I'm going with May majority of 87, provided things stay pretty much as they are today.

 

The Tories had a lead of 6% over Labour last time and only got an overall majority of 14. They'd need a lead of something like 9% or more to get a majority like that.

Edited by buctootim
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Batman

Batman

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Posted
If speaking at an event where lots of arseholes were present were a crime your boss would be mute.

 

keep defending it, keep going

part of the reason why he will get soundly beaten in a few days.

 

Had he not been an IRA sympathiser, shared platforms with people who murder kids/slit the throats of the general public and spit on marching forces.....oh, and not surround himself with racists like dianne abbott...his policies may have had a chance.

 

before you point out what the tory's have done, it simply is not in the same league as jezza and his band of rabble

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hypochondriac

hypochondriac

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Posted
So you hate her in the same way you hate Katie Hopkins, then?

 

Identity politics - depending on what you mean by it, it may be profoundly flawed but it's not intentionally divisive. Not sure why Abbott gets you so worked up - she has an odd effect on some parts of the public. I certainly find her pompous and complacent and despite her progressive pretensions, very elitist. But the same can be said about a lot of politicians.

This sums it up well

 

401ed71041409db7cc52799c3810e36b.jpg

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