General election? June 8th?

[trousers]

Announcement from Theresa May imminent. Speculation of general election on 8th June (subject to parliamentary approval of course).

[andysstuff]

Would be a sensible move, though rather hoping it's her stepping down on health grounds.

 

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[trousers]

Confirmed

[Shroppie]

Confirmed.

 

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[Batman]

Thrown down the gauntlet

[andysstuff]

Feel a little sick. No opposition to speak of. Going to be the hardest of hard brexits with a 50 seat majority.

 

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[The Worm]

Well, Corbyn is out in a few months then, Labour are going to get destroyed in the GE

[Wes Tender]

Brilliant news. Caught Labour with their pants down and puts paid to the criticism that she didn't have a mandate.

[trousers]

Anyone else reckon Liberal Democrat popularity will go through the roof due to hoovering up the 'remain' voters....? Wouldn't surprise me if they push Labour into third place.

 

p.s. Mods - feel free to delete the question marks in the thread title now

[Shroppie]

Anyone else reckon Liberal Democrat popularity will go through the roof due to hoovering up the 'remain' voters....? Wouldn't surprise me if they push Labour into third place.

 

p.s. Mods - feel free to delete the question marks in the thread title now

Maybe not through the roof, but they'll get a lot of Remain voters switching to them and I guess they'll recover quite a few seats.

 

Labour are in trouble. The majority of their MPs are totally at odds with the leader and grassroots support.

 

 

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[Nolan]

Anyone else reckon Liberal Democrat popularity will go through the roof due to hoovering up the 'remain' voters....? Wouldn't surprise me if they push Labour into third place.

 

p.s. Mods - feel free to delete the question marks in the thread title now

I bet May is banking on getting the split in the left wing vote, to get more Conservatives over the line.

 

 

 

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[andysstuff]

Anyone else reckon Liberal Democrat popularity will go through the roof due to hoovering up the 'remain' voters....? Wouldn't surprise me if they push Labour into third place.

 

p.s. Mods - feel free to delete the question marks in the thread title now

Labour have no chance here in Eastbourne. It's very much a 2 horse race between Tories and Lib Dem. Suspect I'll be voting tactically.

 

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[trousers]

Labour are in trouble. The majority of their MPs are totally at odds with the leader and grassroots support.

 

Procedurally, do Labour have enough time to have a leadership election before the general election? If they do, wouldn't surprise me if a 'unity candidate' (if such a person exists) hastily forces a leadership election...

[Shroppie]

The election isn't confirmed until she gets a 2/3 majority in the Commons. Labour will oppose, but I would think SNP plus the few LibDems will get her there.

 

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[shirleysfc]

The election isn't confirmed until she gets a 2/3 majority in the Commons. Labour will oppose, but I would think SNP plus the few LibDems will get her there.

 

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Labour can't oppose. They've been banging on about TM not having a mandate since she became PM. This should be good opportunity for the Lib Dems but I don't have much faith in them not ****ing it up...

[LGTL]

Labour won't oppose, Corbyn has already agreed to it and the majority of the party will be licking their lips at a chance to get rid of him. I actually think they'll do better then we think, but anything other then a big Tory majority will probably be the biggest GE shock in history.

[Saint86]

Have to say, this should be a tory whitewash.

 

I guess if Brexit is going to happen, then having a party with a strong hand on the tiller is the way to get the best deal.

 

I think that Corbyn, McDonald and Abbot are the most unelectable candidates I have seen in my lifetime.

 

Same said for Farron and the lib dems. Yes the remain vote may play a part here, but at the end of the day people need to consider more than just the EU on this vote, and only one party is currently in any shape to be allowed to lead the country.

[Batman]

The election isn't confirmed until she gets a 2/3 majority in the Commons. Labour will oppose, but I would think SNP plus the few LibDems will get her there.

 

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why on earth are Labour going to oppose this?

[sandwichsaint]

Anyone else reckon Liberal Democrat popularity will go through the roof due to hoovering up the 'remain' voters....? Wouldn't surprise me if they push Labour into third place.

 

p.s. Mods - feel free to delete the question marks in the thread title now

 

Yep, need 50 soft Tory seats to go Lib Dem to force the Tories into a minority. Reckon they might get 30+ but it won't be enough.

 

FPTP is the Tories winning card here, LAB/LIB/GREEN will take well over 50% of the popular vote between them and the Tories will rule indefinitely on less than 40% of the vote.

nd

[Shroppie]

why on earth are Labour going to oppose this?

Because they're at a very low ebb, and dozens of Lab MPs stand to lose their seats.

 

But I accept that they may see it as the only way to lose Jeremy. It's difficult to work out what Labour's platform can be. There is ostensibly support amongst party members for socialist values, but candidates won't stand in that basis and it won't deliver enough MPs.

 

But if they try to gain the middle ground, they'll alienate a lot of grass roots members.

 

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[aintforever]

If Labour had a decent centre-left leader and stood on a remain mandate I actually think they would have a decent chance of winning.

 

With Corbyn in charge they have no chance so I guess there will be some Labour MPs defecting to the Lib Dems. The whole thing is a bit of a mess.

[CB Fry]

Because they're at a very low ebb, and dozens of Lab MPs stand to lose their seats.

 

But I accept that they may see it as the only way to lose Jeremy. It's difficult to work out what Labour's platform can be. There is ostensibly support amongst party members for socialist values, but candidates won't stand in that basis and it won't deliver enough MPs.

 

But if they try to gain the middle ground, they'll alienate a lot of grass roots members.

 

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No opposition party will ever oppose a general election when offered. They can't oppose because they think they will lose, it would look pathetic and they'd get outvoted in the house anyway.

 

The fixed term parliament act was always utterly nonsensical, it was only ever going to last the life of the ConDem coalition and so it proved.

[Batman]

my predictions.

 

I think Labour will not do as bad as expected

Tories will not do well as expected

Lib dems will gain a few seats

SNP will lose the odd seat

everthing else will remain the same.

 

Tories to win and add circa 10-15 seats to their Majority with Labour losing mostly to the Liberals

[Nolan]

Good luck in getting a agreeable position for all PLP Labour candidates on Brexit, Trident, Armed Forces Spending, Foreign Policy.

 

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[Sour Mash]

Have to say, this should be a tory whitewash.

 

I guess if Brexit is going to happen, then having a party with a strong hand on the tiller is the way to get the best deal.

 

I think that Corbyn, McDonald and Abbot are the most unelectable candidates I have seen in my lifetime.

 

Same said for Farron and the lib dems. Yes the remain vote may play a part here, but at the end of the day people need to consider more than just the EU on this vote, and only one party is currently in any shape to be allowed to lead the country.

Agreed. Conservative party are the only decent choice to lead the country, why would anyone vote for an alternative.

[Sour Mash]

my predictions.

 

I think Labour will not do as bad as expected

Tories will not do well as expected

Lib dems will gain a few seats

SNP will lose the odd seat

everthing else will remain the same.

 

Tories to win and add circa 10-15 seats to their Majority with Labour losing mostly to the Liberals

That's exactly what will happen.

[Saint_clark]

Agreed. Conservative party are the only decent choice to lead the country, why would anyone vote for an alternative.

 

Did you see the childish reaction of the extreme left remain voters after the referendum? They've gone quiet recently, but with Lib Dems talking about reversing the Brexit process you can expect them to get a surge of support.

[Pamplemousse]

Anyone else reckon Liberal Democrat popularity will go through the roof due to hoovering up the 'remain' voters....? Wouldn't surprise me if they push Labour into third place.

 

p.s. Mods - feel free to delete the question marks in the thread title now

 

I voted Tory last time, I'll be voting for the Lib Dems

 

The one good thing will be Corbyn gone. I can't stand those Momentum idiots.

[SKD]

Did you see the childish reaction of the extreme left remain voters after the referendum? They've gone quiet recently, but with Lib Dems talking about reversing the Brexit process you can expect them to get a surge of support.

 

Is this even possible? I'd assume to reverse we'd need to re join the EU. Can you imagine our negotiation position if this was the case, I suspect it'd be a lot weaker than it already is...

 

Ultimately Brexit will happen whoever is in charge. In order to get the best deal for us, we need someone in who supports it (not that May does, well didn't, however I do not see any other credible candidate).

[aintforever]

Is this even possible? I'd assume to reverse we'd need to re join the EU. Can you imagine our negotiation position if this was the case, I suspect it'd be a lot weaker than it already is...

 

Ultimately Brexit will happen whoever is in charge. In order to get the best deal for us, we need someone in who supports it (not that May does, well didn't, however I do not see any other credible candidate).

 

The EU have left the door open for it to be reversed.

[Shroppie]

Is this even possible? I'd assume to reverse we'd need to re join the EU. Can you imagine our negotiation position if this was the case, I suspect it'd be a lot weaker than it already is...

 

Ultimately Brexit will happen whoever is in charge. In order to get the best deal for us, we need someone in who supports it (not that May does, well didn't, however I do not see any other credible candidate).

We wouldn't have to rejoin as we haven't left yet: just given notice.

 

We could, in theory, just withdraw the Notice.

 

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[Pamplemousse]

Is this even possible? I'd assume to reverse we'd need to re join the EU. Can you imagine our negotiation position if this was the case, I suspect it'd be a lot weaker than it already is...

 

Ultimately Brexit will happen whoever is in charge. In order to get the best deal for us, we need someone in who supports it (not that May does, well didn't, however I do not see any other credible candidate).

 

Article 50 can be revoked I think?

 

In any case, I reckon we will rejoin the EU at some point - 10, 15 years perhaps?

[igsey]

Going to be a tough decision for me - I voted Tory last time as Labour was a joke, the Lib Dems had entirely betrayed the student population with the uni fees debacle, and the Greens is a wasted vote. Similar situation this time around apart from the Tories are ruining things faster than before, Labour are even more of a joke, and the Lib Dems have not been relevant enough to annoy anybody in any effectual way. I'll probably vote Lib Dem though it would leave a sour taste in my mouth after Clegg.

[andysstuff]

Article 50 can be revoked I think?

 

In any case, I reckon we will rejoin the EU at some point - 10, 15 years perhaps?

Yep, Article 50 can indeed be revoked. Rejoining however is something g entirely different and iirc will need are commitment to join the Euro.

 

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[moonraker]

Generally agree, however the LD's will also gain from the Tories, remember Richmond, centre right Tory seat, same here in Bath Ben Howlett is toast, and the Tories themselves have identified 30 plus of their seats that are highly vulnerable to tactical remain votes going to the LD's. Also while Labour are in a mess they still have circa 180 – 200 cast iron seats. Big risk, as we have seen polls are not what they once were. I also think remain voters are more likely to vote and vote tactically. UKIP will struggle to mobilise, they are in a mess and effectively bankrupt. The distribution of parliamentary seats means a GE is a very different situation to the referendum and the much beloved FPTP system may just favour tactical voting. If May has called to increase her majority I think she is going to be disappointed, it could even result in another coalition admittedly with the Tories the biggest party but NOM.

[Shroppie]

Going to be a tough decision for me - I voted Tory last time as Labour was a joke, the Lib Dems had entirely betrayed the student population with the uni fees debacle, and the Greens is a wasted vote. Similar situation this time around apart from the Tories are ruining things faster than before, Labour are even more of a joke, and the Lib Dems have not been relevant enough to annoy anybody in any effectual way. I'll probably vote Lib Dem though it would leave a sour taste in my mouth after Clegg.

Agreed the LibDems got it wrong over student fees, but they were successful in moderating the Tories in many other ways, now largely forgotten.

 

And the Tories very successfully used the one issue to discredit the LibDems.

 

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[Shroppie]

Duplicate post

 

 

 

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Edited 18 April, 2017 by Shroppie

[moonraker]

my predictions.

 

I think Labour will not do as bad as expected

Tories will not do well as expected

Lib dems will gain a few seats

SNP will lose the odd seat

everthing else will remain the same.

 

Tories to win and add circa 10-15 seats to their Majority with Labour losing mostly to the Liberals

 

Generally agree, however the LD's will also gain from the Tories, remember Richmond, centre right Tory seat, same here in Bath Ben Howlett is toast, and the Tories themselves have identified 30 plus of their seats that are highly vulnerable to tactical remain votes going to the LD's. Also while Labour are in a mess they still have circa 180 – 200 cast iron seats. Big risk, as we have seen polls are not what they once were. I also think remain voters are more likely to vote and vote tactically. UKIP will struggle to mobilise, they are in a mess and effectively bankrupt. The distribution of parliamentary seats means a GE is a very different situation to the referendum and the much beloved FPTP system may just favour tactical voting. If May has called to increase her majority I think she is going to be disappointed, it could even result in another coalition admittedly with the Tories the biggest party but NOM.

[trousers]

What odds will I get on the Lib Dems winning the election? And will the odds be as long as they were for Leicester City winning the Prem, the UK leaving the EU or Trump becoming President of the US of A...?

Gotta be worth a cheeky fiver, surely? #strangerthingshaveghappened #sortof

[andysstuff]

What odds will I get on the Lib Dems winning the election? And will the odds be as long as they were for Leicester City winning the Prem, the UK leaving the EU or Trump becoming President of the US of A...?

Gotta be worth a cheeky fiver, surely? #strangerthingshaveghappened #sortof

They are 25/1 for most seats on skybet. Hardly long odds.

 

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[Sour Mash]

Generally agree, however the LD's will also gain from the Tories, remember Richmond, centre right Tory seat.

 

Please tell me you're kidding? You properly don't know your subject matter at all do you?

[solentstars]

I voted Tory last time, I'll be voting for the Lib Dems The one good thing will be Corbyn gone. I can't stand those Momentum idiots.

i voted consertives the last 3 elections but will be voteing liberal democrats this time round,i think its a disgrace that may is useing it for party political advantage rather than the national interest,there is no need for a election has they already have a majority, i sick of the fact they also doubled the national debt to 2 trillion and are going to borrow loads more over the coming years .i think may has a poor track recordin politics and she is no maggie thatcher and i also believe in progresive politics rather than the fantasy world of being stronger on our own,the real world does not work like that and as for labour the sooner they get rid of corybn the better,hes even worse than may.

[moonraker]

Please tell me you're kidding? You properly don't know your subject matter at all do you?

 

I know the Bath constituency very well, and the Tory partyrecognise the risks in stong remian areas, what are you basing your arrogance on!

[Batman]

Generally agree, however the LD's will also gain from the Tories, remember Richmond, centre right Tory seat, same here in Bath Ben Howlett is toast, and the Tories themselves have identified 30 plus of their seats that are highly vulnerable to tactical remain votes going to the LD's. Also while Labour are in a mess they still have circa 180 – 200 cast iron seats. Big risk, as we have seen polls are not what they once were. I also think remain voters are more likely to vote and vote tactically. UKIP will struggle to mobilise, they are in a mess and effectively bankrupt. The distribution of parliamentary seats means a GE is a very different situation to the referendum and the much beloved FPTP system may just favour tactical voting. If May has called to increase her majority I think she is going to be disappointed, it could even result in another coalition admittedly with the Tories the biggest party but NOM.

 

tory's will lose a couple of seats to the Lib Dems but that will be made up by the Tory's winning more seats from Labour

 

the Lib Dems will probably he hailed as the big winners in this election by taking their seats to around 20 and will remain pretty meaningless (despite what that berk, Tim Farron will spout)

[shurlock]

Pure cynicism.

 

If it was anything to do with a mandate, she'd hold an election or a referendum on the final Brexit deal once voters had a clearer idea what they were voting for.

Edited 18 April, 2017 by shurlock

[Shroppie]

Pure cynicism.

 

If it was anything to do with a mandate, she'd hold an election or a referendum on the final Brexit deal once we had a clearer idea what we were voting for.

Agreed. I've got serious doubts whether any reasonable deal can be done with the EU, and that could lead to a rebellion over the final terms.

 

Better to try to give yourself absolute power now to avoid any arguments. And if she loses her majority, she'll have someone else to blame if we have to back down on Brexit, just like they blamed everything on the LibDems during the coalition.

 

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[Sour Mash]

I know the Bath constituency very well, and the Tory partyrecognise the risks in stong remian areas, what are you basing your arrogance on!

Calling Richmond a "Centre-Right" tory seat.

[Wes Tender]

Generally agree, however the LD's will also gain from the Tories, remember Richmond, centre right Tory seat, same here in Bath Ben Howlett is toast, and the Tories themselves have identified 30 plus of their seats that are highly vulnerable to tactical remain votes going to the LD's. Also while Labour are in a mess they still have circa 180 – 200 cast iron seats. Big risk, as we have seen polls are not what they once were. I also think remain voters are more likely to vote and vote tactically. UKIP will struggle to mobilise, they are in a mess and effectively bankrupt. The distribution of parliamentary seats means a GE is a very different situation to the referendum and the much beloved FPTP system may just favour tactical voting. If May has called to increase her majority I think she is going to be disappointed, it could even result in another coalition admittedly with the Tories the biggest party but NOM.

 

Richmond will go back to the Conservatives. There were exceptional circumstances which gained the Lib Dumbs the seat and they won't be able to put the resources in they did in the by-election. Anyway, there is always an advantage to an opposition party as a mid term protest which won't repeat in a General Election.

 

Most of the seats that the Conservatives identified as being vulnerable to tactical voting, will be more than compensated by the collapse of the UKIP vote, now that the reason for their existence has largely disappeared following our vote to leave the EU. As you say, Labour are in complete disarray and have the conundrum that many of their voters in their traditional heartlands voted for Brexit. Tactical voting will go both ways, with Brexit voters not wishing to jeopardise their referendum victory by voting in MPs who openly declare themselves as willing to reverse the Article 50 process. Boundary changes have made the electoral process fairer, but favour the Conservatives.

 

There is no way that there will be a hung parliament; if there was a possibility of that outcome, then Theresa May would not have called the Election.

[trousers]

There is no way that there will be a hung parliament; if there was a possibility of that outcome, then Theresa May would not have called the Election.

 

I think one thing that recent political history tells us is that predicting certain outcomes is fraught with danger. I'm guessing not many predicted that May would call a snap election today (for example)...

Edited 18 April, 2017 by trousers

[whelk]

Fittest Theresa May has ever looked at her speech. I think I need a nap