Some different thoughts on our transfer policy

[leeham_69]

I think by now most are in agreement that our transfer policy is to buy promising young players on the premise we can re-sell them for profit some years later. In theory, this works as both a drawcard insofar as we may be able to sign players looking to make the leap to a big club from a lower league that we otherwise wouldn't, but as we all know it can also create a hole where we either fail to replace key players adequately, or the gambles we take on those replacements don't work out.

 

Now I don't really want to start yet another thread that discusses the merit of this system - it has been flogged endlessly (a sign of frustration at our lack of info coming from the top I am sure). But I was curious about the ages of players we sign and the players we sell, and whether any definitive pattern emerged.

 

Here's most of our signings since the PL in order of age we signed them:

 

Boruc - 32 (34 at transfer)

Pelle - 29 (31 at transfer)

Davis - 27

Long - 27

McCarthy - 27

Osvaldo - 27 (28 at transfer)

Pied - 26

Austin - 26

Forster - 26

Bertrand - 25

Soares - 24

Lovren - 24 (25 at transfer)

Romeu - 24

VVD - 24

Tadic - 24

Clasie - 24

Gardos - 24

Boufal - 23

Cork - 22 (25 at transfer)

Wanyama - 22 (25 at transfer)

Mane - 22 (24 at transfer)

Redmond - 22

Juanmi - 22 (24 at transfer)

Clyne - 21 (23 at transfer)

PEH - 21

Ramirez - 21 (25 at transfer, excludes loans)

Gazzaniga - 20

Schneiderlin - 18 (25 at transfer)

 

misc:

Lallana - 25 at transfer

Chambers - 19 at transfer

Shaw - 19 at transfer

 

 

So - here's what I suspect with the caveat that it really is hard to draw definitive conclusions across the last 7 or 8 years what with different managers, different leagues, different chairpersons etc. I am musing that we in fact sign three kinds of players, or we sign players with 3 different intentions depending on your POV:

Promising up and comers (aged

Successes: Clyne, Wanyama, Mane

Potentials: Redmond, Hojbjerg, Boufal

Probable failures: Juanmi, Ramirez

 

Core squad (24-28, signed with the intention of building the team around)

Successs: Davis, Forster, Austin, Romeu, Tadic, Soares

Failures: Lovren (who chucked a hissy and wanted to leave), Osvaldo, I would argue Long

Possible failures/yet to be seen: Long, Gardos, Clasie, Pied

 

Cheap "older" players (29+, signed with the intention of either doing a job for us on the cheap OR being sold at a profit if someone is willing to pay)

Successes: Pelle, Boruc, Ricky (arguable)

Unknowns/arguable failures: S. Taylor

 

Also interesting to note that obviously players transition between these ages - at which point the club makes a decision. Do they go from exciting young player to core player (which results in increase in what we have to pay em) or flog 'em? When core players get old, do we carry them into their twilight (meaning we have to pay for less games played), or try and flog 'em? I would also argue - possibly optimistically - that this means VvD was signed as a long term prospect (what with 6 year contract + captaincy etc) ... but probably he has surpassed expectations and as such is an inevitable exception.

 

Anyway hopefully this will facilitate some robust discussion. I reckon it's actually in theory a good system - sign very exciting young players, mix them with dependable workhorses, repeat etc. The problem is obviously the inherent gamble and this season we've been unluck with all kinds of players - perennial injuries to boufal, gardos, austin, mccarthy + the continued underwhelmingness of redmond, clasie, forster, hojbjerg (in flashes). We'd probably be OK if we had problems to one of the young/core age groups, but currently both are in a bit of strife.

 

I'm bored at work - how's your day?

[Harry Faz]

Thanks for doing all that . I agree with the majority of what you have written. I think where we went wrong this summer is we bought too many with potential , and havent bought enough in the core / older categories . When we had the exodus when Poch left we bought Tadic / Pelle - and brought in Toby on loan, all players who were ready able to make an immediate impact , we need a couple more at this level now, especuially if Jose goes.

 

Its all about balance , and we got that wrong this summer . Not a terminal problem , but IMHO they need some more proven ability in this squad - a couple of signings could make all the difference.

[broncoboy]

Thanks for doing all that . I agree with the majority of what you have written. I think where we went wrong this summer is we bought too many with potential , and havent bought enough in the core / older categories . When we had the exodus when Poch left we bought Tadic / Pelle - and brought in Toby on loan, all players who were ready able to make an immediate impact , we need a couple more at this level now, especuially if Jose goes.

 

Its all about balance , and we got that wrong this summer . Not a terminal problem , but IMHO they need some more proven ability in this squad - a couple of signings could make all the difference.

 

It's virtually impossible to replace key players every summer with new lower cost players who are all going to succeed at their new club.. Every mid table club is looking for those players who are good value with a potential sell on value.

I reckon 50% of signings work out at best .

As we are seeing it bites you in the backside eventually

If you look at the strikers we have and look at their average number of goals per season you wouldn't have to be a rocket scientist to identify we were going to have a problem this season .