Saint86 Posted 3 August, 2016 Share Posted 3 August, 2016 Sorry but that is the equivalent of sayiing that because you got five heads in five tosses that the next is most likely to be tails. The chance is still only 50:50 The chance of 6 consecutive heads is something like 1.56%... not the first strategy I'd approach. Fortunately there is rather more to it than tossing a coin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eelpie Posted 3 August, 2016 Share Posted 3 August, 2016 Batman has a point. It would be unacceptable to sell those players and not reinvest to strengthen and improve the first team and squad. The team is currently weaker, that is what Batman is getting at I think. What, that is the bedwetter's mantra! Surely not Bats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAY-Z Posted 3 August, 2016 Share Posted 3 August, 2016 The chance of 6 consecutive heads is something like 1.56%... not the first strategy I'd approach. Fortunately there is rather more to it than tossing a coin. The chances of 5 heads and a tail is exactly the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david in sweden Posted 3 August, 2016 Share Posted 3 August, 2016 Who's said they don't know what they're doing? .....judging by some of the posts I've read ......a small, but vociferous group of bed-wetters on here ----2 or 3 times a season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deano6 Posted 5 August, 2016 Share Posted 5 August, 2016 The chances of 5 heads and a tail is exactly the same Only if you mean to keep it in the order written (which is not implied by what you said). "The chances of 5 heads and THEN a tail is exactly the same." Otherwise there is 6 times as much chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whelk Posted 5 August, 2016 Share Posted 5 August, 2016 Only if you mean to keep it in the order written (which is not implied by what you said). "The chances of 5 heads and THEN a tail is exactly the same." Otherwise there is 6 times as much chance. Yes but we have had the 5 heads already so it is the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avenue_Saint Posted 5 August, 2016 Share Posted 5 August, 2016 Tadic signing new contract soon been informed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhilippineSaint Posted 5 August, 2016 Share Posted 5 August, 2016 Yes but we have had the 5 heads already so it is the same. As anybody taken into account that it could land on its edge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericofarabia Posted 5 August, 2016 Share Posted 5 August, 2016 We don't have Heads or Tails in UAE its Coffee Pot or Arabic Sqiggle .... does that mess up things? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Garrett Posted 5 August, 2016 Share Posted 5 August, 2016 Tadic signing new contract soon been informed Would be good - has certainly been in quite a few of the media bits from the club over the last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevie61163 Posted 5 August, 2016 Share Posted 5 August, 2016 Tadic signing new contract soon been informed sorry mate source please ...or just a guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallagroth Posted 5 August, 2016 Share Posted 5 August, 2016 Only if you mean to keep it in the order written (which is not implied by what you said). "The chances of 5 heads and THEN a tail is exactly the same." Otherwise there is 6 times as much chance. Think this is a case of gamblers fallacy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy p.s. Sorry to be a nerd but found it quite interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris27687 Posted 5 August, 2016 Share Posted 5 August, 2016 Think this is a case of gamblers fallacy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy p.s. Sorry to be a nerd but found it quite interesting. Gambler's fallacy is that if a coin came up heads 5 times in a row that it would be more likely to come up heads next. If you have pre-described what will happen - that it will be 5 heads then a tail you can work out the probability as the events haven't happened yet. The same thing happens with roulette and other table games - people sit down waiting for loads of of 1 thing and then get convinced it happens in patterns. Then they normally apply a martingale strategy - basically they wait for 5 reds before betting black and doubling when they lose as 'it can't come up red 10 times in a row or whatever is required to bankrupt them' and then they make a small amount of money till eventually they lose everything. lots of morons out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy Durman Posted 5 August, 2016 Share Posted 5 August, 2016 Avenue Saint doesn't need a source. Crab Lungs also confirmed. Tadic is staying and will sign a new contract. It's a PR opportunity now. Patience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brett24 Posted 5 August, 2016 Share Posted 5 August, 2016 Avenue Saint doesn't need a source. Crab Lungs also confirmed. Tadic is staying and will sign a new contract. It's a PR opportunity now. Patience Crab Lungs confirmed Fonte is signing also and that hasn't happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thorpie the sinner Posted 5 August, 2016 Share Posted 5 August, 2016 Crab Lungs confirmed Fonte is signing also and that hasn't happened. To be fair, you don't know it hasn't happened! Club maybe preparing a big announcement behind scenes! Big opportunity for our club with our Captain winning Euro's, big PR opportunity I would say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSFC Posted 5 August, 2016 Share Posted 5 August, 2016 To be fair, you don't know it hasn't happened! Club maybe preparing a big announcement behind scenes! Big opportunity for our club with our Captain winning Euro's, big PR opportunity I would say Exactly this!! OUR captain Euro winner commits rest of career to Southampton FC. Very rare headline!! I'm sure our excellent media department are all over this!! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint_Ash Posted 5 August, 2016 Share Posted 5 August, 2016 Exactly this!! OUR captain Euro winner commits rest of career to Southampton FC. Very rare headline!! I'm sure our excellent media department are all over this!! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Wouldn't be surprised if it's ready for the Programme on the opening day of the season or maybe for this Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St_Tel49 Posted 5 August, 2016 Share Posted 5 August, 2016 Wouldn't be surprised if it's ready for the Programme on the opening day of the season or maybe for this Sunday. It won't be in this weekend's programme. That is a single programme for both the Espanyol and Bilbao games Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notnowcato Posted 5 August, 2016 Share Posted 5 August, 2016 I've long through that if probably was effectively taught as its own subject in schools, the gambling industry would collapse. English would help too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Window Cleaner Posted 5 August, 2016 Share Posted 5 August, 2016 English would help too... And probability.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris27687 Posted 5 August, 2016 Share Posted 5 August, 2016 I've long through that if probably was effectively taught as its own subject in schools, the gambling industry would collapse. Not so sure - people deceive themselves about a lot of things in their day to day lives - so i see no reason gambling would be different. In the states most people have a certain % of their salary they are happy to lose gambling for fun - which certainly would be the case for people in the UK too. Chopra etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deano6 Posted 5 August, 2016 Share Posted 5 August, 2016 Gambler's fallacy is that if a coin came up heads 5 times in a row that it would be more likely to come up heads next. If you have pre-described what will happen - that it will be 5 heads then a tail you can work out the probability as the events haven't happened yet. The same thing happens with roulette and other table games - people sit down waiting for loads of of 1 thing and then get convinced it happens in patterns. Then they normally apply a martingale strategy - basically they wait for 5 reds before betting black and doubling when they lose as 'it can't come up red 10 times in a row or whatever is required to bankrupt them' and then they make a small amount of money till eventually they lose everything. lots of morons out there. Tails actually. You're describing reverse fallacy. (not that it matters, point is the same) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy#Reverse_fallacy There is actually some logic to the Reverse Fallacy in a Bayesian world. You would say "I don't know what the true probability is [nobody does] but my starting assumption is it's 50%/50%". You would then keep track of actual observations to update that prior assumption until you fine tune it around the (hopefully) "true" answer. A string of heads in a row would then lead you to think that there was greater than 50% probability of heads. I guess the problem is people are making that calculation but placing too much importance on the observation when it's not truly statistically significant. Not enough samples are observed or they have cherry-picked only the "interesting" sequences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sydneysaint Posted 5 August, 2016 Share Posted 5 August, 2016 Pleased that Crab Lungs and others who are Really in the Know and one or two others make their posts Correct in more than 50% of ITK posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Golac's Cunning Stunts Posted 5 August, 2016 Share Posted 5 August, 2016 I've long through that if probably was effectively taught as its own subject in schools, the gambling industry would collapse. What the **** does that mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whelk Posted 6 August, 2016 Share Posted 6 August, 2016 What the **** does that mean? Explaining gambling is a mugs game would mean the kids would never gamble. So flawed though. Like the retired army major in Surrey not understanding how any fool could get addicted to heroin as no basic understanding of psyches and fulfilment. There is far more to it than statistically thinking you will win. Best way to describe gambling is 'an exciting way to become depressed' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
austsaint Posted 6 August, 2016 Share Posted 6 August, 2016 I've long through that if probably was effectively taught as its own subject in schools, the gambling industry would collapse. Maybe people are just exercising choice and free will, with a bit of fun thrown in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Essruu Posted 11 August, 2016 Share Posted 11 August, 2016 Another new contract extension signing later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkshire Saint Posted 11 August, 2016 Share Posted 11 August, 2016 Any further info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donatello Posted 11 August, 2016 Share Posted 11 August, 2016 (edited) Another new contract extension signing later today. One of the players rumoured to have been offered a contract? (By Adam Leitch and the like) Edited 11 August, 2016 by Donatello Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperSAINT Posted 11 August, 2016 Share Posted 11 August, 2016 Another new contract extension signing later today. #ITK_Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turkish Posted 11 August, 2016 Share Posted 11 August, 2016 #ITK_Watch As a genuine ITK I can vouch for essruu as he must have the same source as me as I was told this was being signed late last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toadhall Saint Posted 11 August, 2016 Share Posted 11 August, 2016 My bet is Cedric Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilchards Posted 11 August, 2016 Share Posted 11 August, 2016 As a genuine ITK I can vouch for essruu as he must have the same source as me as I was told this was being signed late last night. You are full of ****. Go on then, save yourself and name the person plus how many years have they signed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SO16_Saint Posted 11 August, 2016 Share Posted 11 August, 2016 Fonte 4 years In the Executive Box Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilchards Posted 11 August, 2016 Share Posted 11 August, 2016 Fonte 4 years In the Executive Box Soares 5 years in the Press Room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericofarabia Posted 11 August, 2016 Share Posted 11 August, 2016 As a genuine ITK I can vouch for essruu as he must have the same source as me as I was told this was being signed late last night. New club policy .... take player out for a drink, spike his drink, get him completely trollied, get a few compromising photos and ask him to sign on the dotted line? They tried the same with Clyne but Boots took 2 years to process the photos .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Give it to Ron Posted 11 August, 2016 Share Posted 11 August, 2016 Soares 5 years in the Press Room Is this Southampton Cluedo? Mr Reed Boardroom Spanner Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericofarabia Posted 11 August, 2016 Share Posted 11 August, 2016 Signing at SMS today .... it's happening folks. http://www.saintsfc.co.uk/news/article/2016-17/20160804-match-of-the-new-millennium-book-signing-3224396.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericofarabia Posted 11 August, 2016 Share Posted 11 August, 2016 You are full of ****. Go on then, save yourself and name the person plus how many years have they signed? Turks has used up his 3 for the day, but has declared his info on The Ugly Board!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Essruu Posted 11 August, 2016 Share Posted 11 August, 2016 Fonte and Cedric likely, but not today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALWAYS_SFC Posted 11 August, 2016 Share Posted 11 August, 2016 Tadic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint_Ash Posted 11 August, 2016 Share Posted 11 August, 2016 Fonte and Cedric likely, but not today. Romeu. Which would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Garrett Posted 11 August, 2016 Share Posted 11 August, 2016 Tadic This would be good ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donatello Posted 11 August, 2016 Share Posted 11 August, 2016 (edited) Fonte and Cedric likely, but not today. Which suggests Tadic. Possibly Rom. Thanks, Essruu. Edited 11 August, 2016 by Donatello Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donatello Posted 11 August, 2016 Share Posted 11 August, 2016 #ITK_Watch Essruu is legit ITK (because of his occupation, if I recall). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperSAINT Posted 11 August, 2016 Share Posted 11 August, 2016 Which suggest Tadic. Possibly Rom. Thanks, Essruu. Makes sense. Up the feel-good factor before we get the season started. Essruu is legit ITK (because of his occupation, if I recall). He is indeed. Hence my Hash-tag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fish fingers Posted 11 August, 2016 Share Posted 11 August, 2016 Essruu is legit ITK (because of his occupation, if I recall). Player fluffer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhilippineSaint Posted 11 August, 2016 Share Posted 11 August, 2016 Essruu is legit ITK (because of his occupation, if I recall). Minicab Operative. is the PC term for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shance Posted 11 August, 2016 Share Posted 11 August, 2016 Please please please be Tadic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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