Brexit - Post Match Reaction

[scotty]

That proves the opposite of what you intended. Even a report commissioned by a pro euro lobby group talks about lost opportunities and influence, not economic implosion.

 

"Implode" wasn't meant literally, but there was doom-mongering on a grand scale. I wasn't thinking so much about the blair era as the major/lamont years; the markets were squealing like stuck pigs when major insisted on a UK opt out from the euro, and prior to our ill advised and expensive flirtation with the erm they creamed their collective pinstripes. The actuality didn't take long to sink in, and it was years before anyone mooted the idea of joining the eurozone.

[shurlock]

It looks like Trump read the OP...

 

Trident, I want Saints to win the league as soon as possible. Seriously, what's Ryan meant to say in front of an audience of tories and brexiters?

 

More proof that the real world is bit of a mystery to you. Back on planet earth, things are a tad more complicated, my drippy little kipper.

 

US reopens door to reviving EU trade talks

Wilbur Ross says EU, Japan and China in competition to show willingness for deal

 

 

Donald Trump’s top trade official has opened the door to reviving negotiations with the EU but warned the bloc it would be in competition with China and Japan to show willingness to do the first deal with the new US administration.

 

In an interview with the Financial Times, Wilbur Ross, US commerce secretary, called the need to reduce the US’s $146bn transatlantic trade deficit in goods one of his priorities. That deficit is

second only to the US’s $347bn one with China.

 

The billionaire investor is due to host Cecilia Malmström, the EU’s trade commissioner, in Washington on Monday for their first meeting to discuss how to proceed with talks over a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) launched under the Obama administration. Those talks were launched with great fanfare in 2013 but stalled last year amid intense political opposition in the EU and last June’s vote by the UK to leave the bloc.

 

“The three big [economies] that are the sources of our trade deficit outside of [the North American Free Trade Agreement] are China, Japan and Europe. So it is logical that . . . one should focus on Europe,” Mr Ross told the FT.

 

The move marks a shift in tone by the Trump administration, which had originally been pushing to strike bilateral deals with EU member countries such as Germany despite that not being allowed under EU rules.

 

But US officials caution that this week’s meeting with the EU is unlikely to lead to a rapid resumption of negotiations with Brussels. Talks would be unlikely to progress significantly before Germany’s election in September. Just as a Trump plan to pursue a bilateral deal with the UK was quickly put on hold because of the questions raised by Brexit, they caution, Washington has doubts about the EU’s “bandwidth” as it focuses on its own negotiations with London.

 

EU officials are similarly cautious about resuming talks with the US that would probably both be difficult and draw public opposition in Europe where Mr Trump is unpopular. “Before taking a decision on how to proceed, we would need to clarify that there is a sufficient level of shared ambition and common ground in finding solutions to difficult issues,” a spokesman for the European Commission said.

 

Mr Ross said despite the regular portrayal of the new administration as a protectionist force in the global economy it was intent on pursuing trade deals with the US’s big economic partners. Although one of Mr Trump’s first acts in office was to pull the US out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership with Japan and 10 other economies, the administration had made a conscious decision not to do the same with TTIP, he said.

 

“Clearly at some point we need to do something with Europe,” he said. “It seems a little weird that a car being shipped from Mexico to Europe pays no tariff as they have a bilateral [agreement with the EU] and a car being shipped from the US pays the full tariff.”

 

But Mr Ross said the US’s first trade priority was renegotiating Nafta, the two decades-old agreement with Canada and Mexico that the president has called a “disaster” for the US economy. He also warned Washington wanted quick wins and was now trying to assess who among China, Japan and the EU was best placed to deliver that.

 

President Trump “is not in favour of just having endless meetings that get nowhere. Our trade deficit is far too serious to be just a debating society. It needs some action,” Mr Ross said. “Since you don’t really have any way to force somebody to negotiate with you the sensible thing would be to figure out which of the big players is most likely to be willing to do a sensible deal.”

 

Mr Ross’s meetings with his EU counterpart on Monday comes just days after he returned from a similar meeting in Japan, with which the Trump administration now wants to pursue a bilateral deal. Washington is also discussing a “100-day plan” on trade with Beijing launched at this month’s summit between Mr Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

 

The new commerce secretary’s desire to pursue trade agreements highlights the clashing messages on trade coming out of Washington. Mr Trump last week launched a national security investigation on steel imports that seems likely to lead to conflicts with the EU and China. He also has been lashing out at Canada in recent days over a long-running dispute on dairy.

 

In addition, over the weekend the US pushed the world’s finance chiefs to remove language decrying protectionism from a concluding statement at the International Monetary Fund’s spring meetings. At those meetings Steven Mnuchin, the new US Treasury secretary, pushed for the IMF to step up scrutiny of trade “imbalances” in a bid to apply more pressure on surplus countries such as Germany, the EU’s largest member economy.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/7996f226-282a-11e7-9ec8-168383da43b7

[buctootim]

This opinion piece by Guy Verhofstadt should be compulsory reading for all Brexiteers.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/22/dont-believe-theresa-may-election-wont-change-brexit

 

"The theory espoused by some, that May is calling a general election in order to secure a better deal with the EU, is nonsensical. We can only conclude that many British politicians and the media still don’t fathom how article 50 will work. As with the referendum, which many European leaders saw as a Tory cat fight that got out of control, I have little doubt many on the continent see this election as again motivated by the internal machinations of the Tory party.

 

What has been billed as a “Brexit election” is an attempted power grab by the Tories, who wish to take advantage of a Labour party in seeming disarray to secure another five years of power before the reality of Brexit bites. Will the election of more Tory MPs give May a greater chance of securing a better Brexit deal? For those sitting around the table in Brussels, this is an irrelevance. British officials will represent the people of the UK in the negotiations, regardless of the number of Tory MPs.

 

Yes, many in Europe deeply regret the UK’s decision to leave the European Union. We were, and would have been, stronger working together to tackle climate change, shape globalisation and lead the fight for liberal democracy on our continent and beyond. But the British people should not be misled by the hysterical rightwing British press – there never has been and never will be a campaign or secret plot by EU leaders to keep Britain in the EU. The government has decided to trigger article 50 of the Lisbon treaty and the letter May sent to invoke this procedure set out the government’s negotiating position: Britain will be leaving the customs union. As a result, European leaders are preparing for customs controls to be introduced from Brexit day in March 2019.

 

Britain will be leaving the European single market that Mrs Thatcher pushed for, we have been informed. Leaving this single market has logical consequences: an end to the free movement of people, goods and services between the United Kingdom and the European Union.

 

I hope we can forge a close security partnership, as international terrorism knows no borders, but as May has ruled out any European court of justice oversight of the UK, we must act on the assumption the UK does not wish to participate in EU justice and home affairs instruments. Come the summer of 2019, unless the government requests transitional arrangements to the contrary and these requests are agreed by all EU countries, UK citizens will have no more of a right to holiday, travel and study in EU countries than tourists from Moscow or students from Mumbai.

 

Leaving the European Union means the EU agencies based in the UK will be relocated. I expect this will be approved by EU leaders as soon as June, if not before. Contrary to the obscure claims by government officials, the European Union’s “crown jewels” of the European Banking Authority and the European Medicines Agency will not remain in a post-Brexit Britain, paid for by EU countries. This is not, as the Daily Express has decried, a “punishment”. This is another logical consequence of Theresa May’s article 50 letter. This decision will not be up for negotiation.

 

I hope this election will lead to an honest debate about the bitter realities of Brexit. Perhaps then the fog of surrealism that has engulfed UK ministers will clear and we can have a serious discussion about our future relationship, which I hope will be a close one."

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

This opinion piece by Guy Verhofstadt should be compulsory reading for all Brexiteers.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/22/dont-believe-theresa-may-election-wont-change-brexit

 

"The theory espoused by some, that May is calling a general election in order to secure a better deal with the EU, is nonsensical. We can only conclude that many British politicians and the media still don’t fathom how article 50 will work. As with the referendum, which many European leaders saw as a Tory cat fight that got out of control, I have little doubt many on the continent see this election as again motivated by the internal machinations of the Tory party.

 

What has been billed as a “Brexit election” is an attempted power grab by the Tories, who wish to take advantage of a Labour party in seeming disarray to secure another five years of power before the reality of Brexit bites. Will the election of more Tory MPs give May a greater chance of securing a better Brexit deal? For those sitting around the table in Brussels, this is an irrelevance. British officials will represent the people of the UK in the negotiations, regardless of the number of Tory MPs.

 

Yes, many in Europe deeply regret the UK’s decision to leave the European Union. We were, and would have been, stronger working together to tackle climate change, shape globalisation and lead the fight for liberal democracy on our continent and beyond. But the British people should not be misled by the hysterical rightwing British press – there never has been and never will be a campaign or secret plot by EU leaders to keep Britain in the EU. The government has decided to trigger article 50 of the Lisbon treaty and the letter May sent to invoke this procedure set out the government’s negotiating position: Britain will be leaving the customs union. As a result, European leaders are preparing for customs controls to be introduced from Brexit day in March 2019.

 

Britain will be leaving the European single market that Mrs Thatcher pushed for, we have been informed. Leaving this single market has logical consequences: an end to the free movement of people, goods and services between the United Kingdom and the European Union.

 

I hope we can forge a close security partnership, as international terrorism knows no borders, but as May has ruled out any European court of justice oversight of the UK, we must act on the assumption the UK does not wish to participate in EU justice and home affairs instruments. Come the summer of 2019, unless the government requests transitional arrangements to the contrary and these requests are agreed by all EU countries, UK citizens will have no more of a right to holiday, travel and study in EU countries than tourists from Moscow or students from Mumbai.

 

Leaving the European Union means the EU agencies based in the UK will be relocated. I expect this will be approved by EU leaders as soon as June, if not before. Contrary to the obscure claims by government officials, the European Union’s “crown jewels” of the European Banking Authority and the European Medicines Agency will not remain in a post-Brexit Britain, paid for by EU countries. This is not, as the Daily Express has decried, a “punishment”. This is another logical consequence of Theresa May’s article 50 letter. This decision will not be up for negotiation.

 

I hope this election will lead to an honest debate about the bitter realities of Brexit. Perhaps then the fog of surrealism that has engulfed UK ministers will clear and we can have a serious discussion about our future relationship, which I hope will be a close one."

 

I am not sure that he helps his cause by interfering in UK elections. That is one of the reasons people voted out.

 

I would expect a career politician like him would be able to appreciate why May called an election. A landslide would demonstrate a relatively unified front during the negotiations. It would ensure that she will no longer have a majority of just 17 forcing her to make deals to keep negotiations on track. Thirdly with negotiations set to end in 2019 the EU will not be able to use the an election in 2020 as a tool in their negotiations.

 

He would also be pretty stupid to advocate sabotaging the tourist industries of Spain, Portugal, Greece, Italy and France by making it harder for people to travel to their holiday resorts.

 

Punishing us may not be something that he admits publicly to but the behaviour over Gibraltar really showed the EU's true colours. The people of Gibraltar rewarded for voting 96% in favour of staying in, threatened or should I say bullied by being told that against their right to determination Spain will determine their future.

 

Like many I was anxious when we first voted out but every time a high profile EU bureaucrat opens their mouth I am reassured we did the right thing.

[shurlock]

I am not sure that he helps his cause by interfering in UK elections. That is one of the reasons people voted out.

 

I would expect a career politician like him would be able to appreciate why May called an election. A landslide would demonstrate a relatively unified front during the negotiations. It would ensure that she will no longer have a majority of just 17 forcing her to make deals to keep negotiations on track. Thirdly with negotiations set to end in 2019 the EU will not be able to use the an election in 2020 as a tool in their negotiations.

 

He would also be pretty stupid to advocate sabotaging the tourist industries of Spain, Portugal, Greece, Italy and France by making it harder for people to travel to their holiday resorts.

 

Punishing us may not be something that he admits publicly to but the behaviour over Gibraltar really showed the EU's true colours. The people of Gibraltar rewarded for voting 96% in favour of staying in, threatened or should I say bullied by being told that against their right to determination Spain will determine their future.

 

Like many I was anxious when we first voted out but every time a high profile EU bureaucrat opens their mouth I am reassured we did the right thing.

 

[OldNick]

 

Like many I was anxious when we first voted out but every time a high profile EU bureaucrat opens their mouth I am reassured we did the right thing.

Iam very much in this camp. I voted in but the arrogance of the Eurocrats gets me. It is like they are all Sepp Blatters over there.

[buctootim]

Iam very much in this camp. I voted in but the arrogance of the Eurocrats gets me. It is like they are all Sepp Blatters over there.

 

Its not arrogance though, its the unvarnished view of the other party in the Brexit negotiations. You'll get more truth by listening to both him and May than from the right wing media or from May alone. In any event he's not even a Eurocrat - he is an elected EU politician. He has the same legitimacy but much more credibility than Farage.

[Lord Duckhunter]

He has the same legitimacy but much more credibility than Farage.

 

In which way has he more credibility than any other elected politician?

 

 

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[hutch]

Iam very much in this camp. I voted in but the arrogance of the Eurocrats gets me. It is like they are all Sepp Blatters over there.

I can't think why. I had to agree with Joseph Muscat (prime minister of Malta) in his speech when he warned us that the United Kingdom needed to remember that it is just a small country when it comes to dealing with the big players like him.

[buctootim]

I can't think why. I had to agree with Joseph Muscat (prime minister of Malta) in his speech when he warned us that the United Kingdom needed to remember that it is just a small country when it comes to dealing with the big players like him.

 

Maybe you should read what people actually said rather than your partial memory from months ago of Express reports of what they said. It would give you a different and more informed view of the world.

[buctootim]

In which way has he more credibility than any other elected politician?

 

I didnt say he did, simply that he has more credibility than Farage.

[benjii]

Whatever you think of Farage, he has probably made the single biggest impact of any UK political figure other than Thatcher and Blair in the last four decades.

 

His style is obviously unconventional but I think it's nonsense to say he lacks credibility. He had a conviction and he's seen it come to fruition. That's more than most politicians manage.

[Lord Duckhunter]

Whatever you think of Farage, he has probably made the single biggest impact of any UK political figure other than Thatcher and Blair in the last four decades.

 

His style is obviously unconventional but I think it's nonsense to say he lacks credibility. He had a conviction and he's seen it come to fruition. That's more than most politicians manage.

 

Not only that, but because of him The EU will change. Of course lefties are so blinkered they can't acknowledge his influence. Without Nigel we'd have still been the EU, with out this EU guy with his "credibility " the EU would be exactly the same as it is now. He's influenced nothing, just another EU clone .

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[aintforever]

Its not arrogance though, its the unvarnished view of the other party in the Brexit negotiations. You'll get more truth by listening to both him and May than from the right wing media or from May alone. In any event he's not even a Eurocrat - he is an elected EU politician. He has the same legitimacy but much more credibility than Farage.

 

It is arrogance though, the British people have had concerns over immigration for some time now and as members of a supposedly democratic EU we should have been listened to. Other countries are having the same issues, if the people are just ignored for the sake of some political project there will be more problems ahead (rise of the far right in France for example).

 

For the life of me I don't see why they have to stick dogmatically to the 'free movement' thing, not sure why any other country should have issues with us wanting some control, it's a basic right of any country.

[buctootim]

For the first time more voters now support 'remain' than leave.

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-27/u-k-regrets-brexit-for-first-time-since-referendum-poll-says

 

 

Its going to be an interesting election.

[hypochondriac]

For the first time more voters now support 'remain' than leave.

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-27/u-k-regrets-brexit-for-first-time-since-referendum-poll-says

 

 

Its going to be an interesting election.

 

Interesting in what way? None of the polls suggest that this will mean that Labour will get more votes. The Tories will remain in power and essentially that changes very little.

[aintforever]

It's the most pointless, uninteresting election in my life-time. It's just a case of how many of the opposition seats get wiped out.

 

The only interesting thing will be how Scotland reacts to the inevitable Tory landslide - them leaving the UK will probably be inevitable if the whole of England is blue, they are all SNP and being dragged out of Europe.

[buctootim]

It's the most pointless, uninteresting election in my life-time. It's just a case of how many of the opposition seats get wiped out.

 

The only interesting thing will be how Scotland reacts to the inevitable Tory landslide - them leaving the UK will probably be inevitable if the whole of England is blue, they are all SNP and being dragged out of Europe.

 

Maybe atm - but if you read the polls in detail you'll find lots of factors pulling people in different directions. The electorate like May but the Tory party not so much. People are deeply divided about Brexit and feel strongly enough to vote against 'their' party. The banks and drug companies asre ratcheting up their rhetoric on job losses and threats of leaving. People like Merkel are wading in.

 

I think the Tories will win np but I dont think that will settle the Brexit issue and give her the easy ride thereafter she expects.

[shurlock]

I thought the jerries were going to give us what we wanted because they sold us loads of beamers. More childish misconceptions from our kipper friends it seems.

 

Angela Merkel warns Britain over Brexit ‘illusions’

 

“I have to put it in such clear terms because unfortunately I have the feeling that some in Britain still have illusions,” said the chancellor, the EU’s most powerful leader. “But that would be a waste of time.”

 

 

https://www.ft.com/content/4deb1d40-2b3c-11e7-9ec8-168383da43b7

[buctootim]

I thought the jerries were going to give us what we wanted because they sold us loads of beamers. More childish misconceptions from our kipper friends it seems.

 

 

 

https://www.ft.com/content/4deb1d40-2b3c-11e7-9ec8-168383da43b7

 

Its going to be fun watching the scales drop from their eyes over the next year or two. Would be more fun if it wasn't so tragic. There is going to be huge economic damage for negligible gains elsewhere.

[benjii]

Here are sections 2 and 3 of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty:

 

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

 

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

 

 

- - -

 

So, the suggestion that all exit arrangements must be agreed before succession arrangements can be considered seems somewhat contrary to Article 50 which states clearly that exit arrangements should be agreed which take account of the framework for the future relationship (or at least the process should take account of this, which is much the same thing).

 

Further, if an exit arrangement is not concluded, we simply leave anyway.

 

As with most current pronouncements, this is just part of the negotiation. Merkel will soften her stance on the "future relationship" negotiations and we will agree to pay some money.

Edited 27 April, 2017 by benjii

[shurlock]

Edit

Edited 27 April, 2017 by shurlock

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

For the first time more voters now support 'remain' than leave.

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-27/u-k-regrets-brexit-for-first-time-since-referendum-poll-says

 

 

Its going to be an interesting election.

 

I wonder if You Gov asked the same people it asked when it got its poll wrong before the referendum!

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

I thought the jerries were going to give us what we wanted because they sold us loads of beamers. More childish misconceptions from our kipper friends it seems.

 

 

 

https://www.ft.com/content/4deb1d40-2b3c-11e7-9ec8-168383da43b7

 

and you do not think that German business will not be lobbying behind the scenes for a smooth transition. What about the French wine industry how do you think they are going to respond to a slump in UK sales. I expect the Greeks are going to really approve of the EU making it harder for us to holiday there. Danish pig producers have already been hit hard by the slump in the pound in their biggest market. You are very naïve if you think that they are all going to let their economic interests get ignored by the EU in the name of the great project.

[shurlock]

I wonder if You Gov asked the same people it asked when it got its poll wrong before the referendum!

 

Actually over the numerous polls YouGov conducted for the referendum it wasn't that far off. Likewise there are probably different incentives to answer truthfully for a poll like this than the one before the referendum i.e. it's less taboo to express support for leave now that it's the (slim) majority position. And for all we known, all pollsters have learned lessons and sampling methods have improved since the referendum.

[Verbal]

I wonder if You Gov asked the same people it asked when it got its poll wrong before the referendum!

 

Really?

 

The same YouGov (and ICM) that gave the Leave campaign a 4-5% lead just before the vote in June?

 

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-icm-idUKKCN0YS0XO

 

Seems bang on the money to me.

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

Actually over the numerous polls YouGov conducted for the referendum it wasn't that far off. Likewise there are probably different incentives to answer truthfully for a poll like this than the one before the referendum i.e. it's less taboo to express support for leave now that it's the (slim) majority position. And for all we known, all pollsters have learned lessons and sampling methods have improved since the referendum.

 

Was there a taboo to say that you were voting out? It is not like the shy Tories.

[shurlock]

and you do not think that German business will not be lobbying behind the scenes for a smooth transition. What about the French wine industry how do you think they are going to respond to a slump in UK sales. I expect the Greeks are going to really approve of the EU making it harder for us to holiday there. Danish pig producers have already been hit hard by the slump in the pound in their biggest market. You are very naïve if you think that they are all going to let their economic interests get ignored by the EU in the name of the great project.

 

Don't forget the prosecco and cheese makers in France and Italy, pal

 

You're a walking cliché.

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

Really?

 

The same YouGov (and ICM) that gave the Leave campaign a 4-5% lead just before the vote in June?

 

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-icm-idUKKCN0YS0XO

 

Seems bang on the money to me.

 

Well this one was the night before the vote

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-news-poll-polling-exit-live-updates-brexit-vote-leave-remain-who-will-win-a7098521.html

[shurlock]

Was there a taboo to say that you were voting out? It is not like the shy Tories.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/politics/welcome-to-brexit-britain---a-nation-of-secret-leave-voters-too/

 

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/07/why-i-lie-about-voting-leave/

Edited 27 April, 2017 by shurlock

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

Don't forget the prosecco and cheese makers in France and Italy, pal

 

You're a walking cliché.

 

I expect they will be lobbying too.

 

What rhetoric would you expect to be coming out of the EU?

 

Do you think that you lost the referendum because of the manner that the EU argument was put across?

[buctootim]

The EU is 44% of our exports. We are 10% of theirs. Only the the thickest Brexiteer would be unsure who has the whip hand in negotiations.

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/politics/welcome-to-brexit-britain---a-nation-of-secret-leave-voters-too/

 

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/07/why-i-lie-about-voting-leave/

 

You are being a little naïve again Shurlock. The pollsters always blame 'shy voters' when they get it wrong. Leave voters like Yes voters are certainly not shy.

[buctootim]

You are being a little naïve again Shurlock. The pollsters always blame 'shy voters' when they get it wrong. Leave voters like Yes voters are certainly not shy.

 

You know the thoughts of everyone who voted. Go you. Have you thought of running a consultancy?

[Verbal]

The EU is 44% of our exports. We are 10% of theirs. Only the the thickest Brexiteer would be unsure who has the whip hand in negotiations.

 

There's also the pleasing irony that while the remaining 27 EU nations are united in their approach to Brexit, the May government, with its competing fiefdoms, split across four government departments and three egotistical loons, can't get even a vaguely coherent message out to the EU.

 

Winners tend to speak with one voice. With the May bunch it's like herding cats.

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

The EU is 44% of our exports. We are 10% of theirs. Only the the thickest Brexiteer would be unsure who has the whip hand in negotiations.

 

The UK is the single biggest Export market for goods in the world for the EU with a surplus of £60bn. Do you really believe that it is as simple as the EU turning up to the negotiations saying your business means more to you than it does to us. Virtually every market has a surplus with the UK - Germany's was 25billion in 2015 and no market will want to see that surplus diluted. It would be enough to put the Eurozone back into recession for a sustained period. Will they risk that? Of course they recognise that and that is why the only thing they can come up with is a £50bn leaving bill. Created on the back of a fag packet it is just a figure used to scare other countries from leaving. It is in everybody's interest to sort out a deal before our economy and Europe's is seriously damaged.

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

You know the thoughts of everyone who voted. Go you. Have you thought of running a consultancy?

 

No but nor do the people who suggest there were 'shy leavers' I pointed out that the reason this got bandied about was to excuse the pollsters. I also pointed out that the Leave voters in the referendum were akin to Yes voters in Scotland and were more likely to go on about how great it would be to be out but on the day would vote to stay. This happened in Scotland.

[buctootim]

The UK is the single biggest Export market for goods in the world for the EU with a surplus of £60bn

 

So what? The trade between Germany and France is worth over £200bn. Between Germany and the US its £100bn. Britain is usually third or worse. Doesnt matter how you try to twist it - they are much more important to us than we are to them. And, as Verbal says, they are united.

[Batman]

So what? The trade between Germany and France is worth over £200bn. Between Germany and the US its £100bn. Britain is usually third or worse. Doesnt matter how you try to twist it - they are much more important to us than we are to them. And, as Verbal says, they are united.

We will be (more) united when the Troy's smash everyone at the next election

 

Labour will be all over the place, scrabbling around for a new leader and telling everyone they are ready to listen to the message being sent...... At best

 

The rest will be fairly significant on the international stage. No matter how Sturgeon tries

 

Still, you will not accept that and say that is wrong, we will be in a mess with the united states of Europe having one, sound voice

Edited 27 April, 2017 by Batman

[buctootim]

We will be (more) united when the Troy's smash everyone at the next election

 

Labour will be all over the place, scrabbling around for a new leader and telling everyone they are ready to listen to the message being sent...... At best

 

The rest will be fairly significant on the international stage. No matter how Sturgeon tries

 

Still, you will not accept that and say that is wrong and we will be in a mess and the united states of Europe are one, sound voice

 

Not really. There will be another election before we leave in 2022. The Labour Party wont be in a mess then but the job losses will have started to rack up.

[Batman]

Not really. There will be another election before we leave in 2022. The Labour Party wont be in a mess then but the job losses will have started to rack up.

By then the labour party will probably have to turn around 100 seats and virtually wipe out the SNP

 

But, if you say so

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

So what? The trade between Germany and France is worth over £200bn. Between Germany and the US its £100bn. Britain is usually third or worse. Doesnt matter how you try to twist it - they are much more important to us than we are to them. And, as Verbal says, they are united.

 

How long can 27 countries all with different objectives from the negotiations stay united? They are all united on the fact that we should pay out a large exit bill - that must have taken some effort!

 

I am afraid I am going to give up trying to tell you that the EU is not going to compromise its trade with us because it will hurt them as well.

[shurlock]

The EU is 44% of our exports. We are 10% of theirs. Only the the thickest Brexiteer would be unsure who has the whip hand in negotiations.

 

Sergei's trying to fill the hole currently vacated by Les.

[shurlock]

How long can 27 countries all with different objectives from the negotiations stay united? They are all united on the fact that we should pay out a large exit bill - that must have taken some effort!

 

I am afraid I am going to give up trying to tell you that the EU is not going to compromise its trade with us because it will hurt them as well.

 

Nor is it going to allow a country to enjoy the benefits of single market membership without any of its accompanying responsibilities. Keep dreaming little kipper.

[buctootim]

I am afraid I am going to give up trying to tell you that the EU is not going to compromise its trade with us because it will hurt them as well.

 

Thank you for the mercy.

 

Of course EU will give some ground, but nowhere near as much as the UK will have to. None of the EU's 27 members is going to want give the UK as good a deal as its got at the moment because to do so would disadvantage its own citizens and defeat the point of membership. Its really not hard. We will end up with a markedly inferior deal than we have a present and the so called opportunities in the rest of the world will prove to be largely illusory as our negotiating position will be much weaker as a standalone.

Edited 27 April, 2017 by buctootim

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

Sergei's trying to fill the hole currently vacated by Les.

 

You've opted not to contest what I have said though. That would of course not be the first time.

[shurlock]

You've opted not to contest what I have said though. That would of course not be the first time.

 

Where? You're a walking cliche, so most of your objections have been addressed ad nauseum on here.

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

Thank you the mercy.

 

Of course EU will give some ground, but nowhere near as much as the UK will have to. None of the EU's 27 members is going to want give the UK as good a deal as its got at the moment because to do so would disadvantage its own citizens and defeat the point of membership. Its really not hard. We will end up with a markedly inferior deal than we have a present and the so called opportunities in the rest of the world will prove to be largely illusory as our negotiating position will be much weaker as a standalone.

 

You either have a free trade deal or you don't. The EU quickly recognised that the only way they can hit us without hurting their trade would be through a Brexit bill and that is why it is the main theme.

 

We will have a lot more flexibility to do our own deals. We are quite a big economy and people really will want to speak to us.

[aintforever]

By then the labour party will probably have to turn around 100 seats and virtually wipe out the SNP

 

But, if you say so

 

The one positive about this whole mess is the fact that after the GE this Brexit will be a 100% Tory Brexit. If it goes bad they will get destroyed at the next election.

[buctootim]

The one positive about this whole mess is the fact that after the GE this Brexit will be a 100% Tory Brexit. If it goes bad they will get destroyed at the next election.

 

True. The Tories will eventually realise it isnt going to work, but a lot of damage will have been done by then. Even if Labour are electable they will inherit a goat****