Brexit - Post Match Reaction

[Lord Duckhunter]

My pleasure old bean: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-36803544

 

Disappointed that you would even THINK that a man of my calibre would go around making stuff up

If you think thats evidence that Brexit supporters endorse public flogging you really are deluded

 

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[Lord Duckhunter]

Good to know we've got the A Team on the job. Sucking up to those nice people leading the Philippines and Saudi Arabia is so much preferable to dealing with those despicable Germans and Swedes.

 

]

 

Whilst in the EU

 

 

 

 

 

At least you lefties are consistent, consistently hypercritical.

 

 

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[buctootim]

At least you lefties are consistent, consistently hypercritical.

 

 

Better than being hypocritical. Going to be seeing a lot more of that outside the EU. Probably half the world's countries are lead by ****s. Compromise our principles on child labour, death squads and export of Wahabbism for a couple of billion of trade? Sure np.

Edited 5 April, 2017 by buctootim

[shurlock]

Better than being hypocritical. Going to be seeing a lot more of that outside the EU. Probably half the world's countries are lead by ****s. Compromise our principles on child labour, death squads and export of Wahabbism for a couple of billion of trade? Sure np.

 

[Lord Duckhunter]

Compromise our principles on child labour, death squads and export of Wahabbism for a couple of billion of trade? Sure np.

 

 

Or our nuclear industry

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/2791941/Gordon-Brown-invites-Saudi-Arabia-to-invest-in-Britains-nuclear-industry.html

 

Still it's ok if we're in the EU isn't it. As I was trying so say before spell check ****ed it up. You're hypocritical, all over the place over this. The bitter disappointment over defeat has muddied your brain .

 

 

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Edited 5 April, 2017 by Lord Duckhunter

[buctootim]

Or our nuclear industry

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/2791941/Gordon-Brown-invites-Saudi-Arabia-to-invest-in-Britains-nuclear-industry.html

 

Still it's ok if we're in the EU isn't it. As I was trying so say before spell check ****ed it up. You're hypocritical, all over the place over this. The bitter disappointment over defeat has muddied your brain .

 

You don't seem to know the meaning of either hypercritical or hypocritical - you're getting it mixed up with consistency. The loony lefty snowflake libtards were the biggest critics of Britain cosying up to Gadaffi and King Abdullah.

Edited 5 April, 2017 by buctootim

[Johnny Bognor]

You don't seem to know the meaning of either hypercritical or hypocritical - you're getting it mixed up with consistency. The loony lefty snowflake libtards were the biggest critics of Britain cosying up to Gadaffi and King Abdullah.

 

.... aside from the libtards at the London School of Economics ;-)

[Weston Super Saint]

You don't seem to know the meaning of either hypercritical or hypocritical - you're getting it mixed up with consistency. The loony lefty snowflake libtards were the biggest critics of Britain cosying up to Gadaffi and King Abdullah.

 

Can someone not be consistently hypocritical?

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

If you think thats evidence that Brexit supporters endorse public flogging you really are deluded

 

If you feel that the research in question is in some way flawed, then you should attempt to construct some kind of of reasoned argument to show why that is so. Obviously, I await this development with some interest.

[John B]

Brexit seems to be a complete load of ****.

[John B]

Brexit seems to be a complete load of ****.

 

Perhaps I should have said he list of negative effects of Brexit keeps getting longer and longer by the day, and there are no known benefits at moment

[badgerx16]

Perhaps I should have said he list of negative effects of Brexit keeps getting longer and longer by the day, and there are no known benefits at moment

 

 

No, your first statement was accurate.

[Guided Missile]

Perhaps I should have said he list of negative effects of Brexit keeps getting longer and longer by the day, and there are no known benefits at moment

 

Not quite, according this:

Brexit PROPERTY BOOM: House prices in Britain set to SOAR 25 per cent over next four years

HOUSE prices are set to soar over the next four years as the UK economy goes from strength to strength following Brexit, according to authoritative new figures.

[ecuk268]

Not quite, according this:

 

That's not a benefit because it hasn't happened yet. Also, if it does happen, what evidence is there linking it to Brexit. Just because they happen at the same time does not mean that one caused the other. You might just as well say that it was caused by Saints beating Palace last night.

[ecuk268]

...

Edited 6 April, 2017 by ecuk268

[ecuk268]

...

Edited 6 April, 2017 by ecuk268
problems with posting link

[shurlock]

That's not a benefit because it hasn't happened yet. Also, if it does happen, what evidence is there linking it to Brexit. Just because they happen at the same time does not mean that one caused the other. You might just as well say that it was caused by Saints beating Palace last night.

 

And if it does happen and assuming its a good thing (both massive assumptions), the annual growth rate will still be lower than the pre-Brexit growth rate.

 

Of course, as you point out, correlation is not causation -and this might just be clickbait **** from the Express.

 

If only we could export dodgy logic, wishful thinking and plain old bulls**t, with the likes of Trident and Les, we'd be a trading powerhouse

Edited 6 April, 2017 by shurlock

[aintforever]

That's not a benefit because it hasn't happened yet.

 

Brexit hasn't happened yet, and as positive predictions don't seem to count it's not surprising there are no known benefits yet.

[farawaysaint]

I will say this, Ireland and other hubs are certainly benefiting so far from a migration of financial services companies. Time will tell if Brexit is positive or otherwise and I imagine England's (London's) advantages plus the planned staged corporate tax reduction until 2020 will retain the vast majority of companies. But there has already been a mini flight in this sector from more nervous employers.

[melmacian_saint]

I will say this, Ireland and other hubs are certainly benefiting so far from a migration of financial services companies. Time will tell if Brexit is positive or otherwise and I imagine England's (London's) advantages plus the planned staged corporate tax reduction until 2020 will retain the vast majority of companies. But there has already been a mini flight in this sector from more nervous employers.

 

 

In terms of economic change, this country is to be trusted: there was no mercy when de-industrialisation effectively became government policy in the 80s, I expect a similar attitude to financial services now the industry is facing similar structural challenges.

 

And frankly, the jobs that are moving are those that can be offshored - that is, those positions with larger headcounts.

[CB Fry]

Not quite, according this:

Are you seriously quoting a house price story from the Daily Express?

[Guided Missile]

Are you seriously quoting a house price story from the Daily Express?

Not quite, this one as well:

NO SOFT BREXIT: UK 'will scoop extra £20 billion a year' when it quits EU single market. THE UK will scoop at least an extra £20 billion a year in tax revenues and investment when it quits the European single market a new report has revealed.

[CB Fry]

Not quite, this one as well:

Also from the Daily Express. I've never agreed with you but until now at least thought you were reasonably intelligent.

 

You can make a case for Brexit without referencing the worst newspaper this country has ever produced, the Desmond-era Express.

[Johnny Bognor]

If only we could export dodgy logic, wishful thinking and plain old bulls**t, with the likes of Trident and Les, we'd be a trading powerhouse

 

The UK's consultancy businesses are major contributors to the UK's service sector exports :lol::lol:

[John B]

Reality from Richard Murphy answering one of Batman's valid points

 

One, disastrous, feature of the Reman campaign last year was the claim that if the UK voted leave then the country would require an immediate emergency budget because it would go into immediate recession. This, of course did not happen because Osborne was dumped for saying it. And the downturn did not seem to appear. Until now that is.

 

As the FT reported yesterday, retail sales excluding food fell in the first quarter of this year. And as the Guardian reported, despite supposed record levels of UK employment (about which claim I am dubious anyway) there was a fall in real wages last month, which is a trend set to continue because of current inflation rates. Now I know that technically this does not create a recession but for most people these are the factors that matter, and as a result economic bad news has arrived, but nine or so months later than George Osborne thought.

 

Osborne’s error was significant. It undermined the credibility of the Remain campaign because no one really thought the roof would fall in on June 24 last year. After all, a small majority were elated by the result and of course they felt good and so went spending. The failed prediction then let Brexiteers suggest that Leave was already a success. That was as untrue as Osborne’s claim. Of course Brexit was not proved a success by what happened last summer: Brexit has still not happened.

 

The error was in basic economics and is telling. It tells us that the Treasury still clings to pure market theory. This says that people are rational and perfectly predict the consequences of the future in their current behaviour. So, the Treasury assumed people would know last June that the decision the UK had made would have poor long term consequences and people would immediately react by stopping spending and investment, so sending the UK into an immediate economic downturn.

 

Wiser economists, not so taken with a theory that is so obviously far-removed from observable human behaviour, realise that this is not what happens in the real world. People rarely shudder to economic halts. They do instead take time to process and react to new information. In this case at least six months was required to get to the reaction, and now we can see it. The uncertainty of our current situation, coupled with the reaction to a falling pound, has created lower income and consumer uncertainty. It will take something pretty staggering in economic terms to change either of those situations in the rest of this year.

 

Brexit may not have happened as yet. It may not happen still. But its economic impact has arrived. If people don’t like that life for the Brexiteers is just about together a lot tougher. As Philip Hammond put it, no one voted Brexit to be worse off. But people are just discovering that is what they got. And I’ll say with some confidence that many won’t like it. May’s honeymoon is well and truly over.

[trousers]

[aintforever]

Reality from Richard Murphy answering one of Batman's valid points

 

One, disastrous, feature of the Reman campaign last year was the claim that if the UK voted leave then the country would require an immediate emergency budget because it would go into immediate recession. This, of course did not happen because Osborne was dumped for saying it. And the downturn did not seem to appear. Until now that is.

 

As the FT reported yesterday, retail sales excluding food fell in the first quarter of this year. And as the Guardian reported, despite supposed record levels of UK employment (about which claim I am dubious anyway) there was a fall in real wages last month, which is a trend set to continue because of current inflation rates. Now I know that technically this does not create a recession but for most people these are the factors that matter, and as a result economic bad news has arrived, but nine or so months later than George Osborne thought.

 

Osborne’s error was significant. It undermined the credibility of the Remain campaign because no one really thought the roof would fall in on June 24 last year. After all, a small majority were elated by the result and of course they felt good and so went spending. The failed prediction then let Brexiteers suggest that Leave was already a success. That was as untrue as Osborne’s claim. Of course Brexit was not proved a success by what happened last summer: Brexit has still not happened.

 

The error was in basic economics and is telling. It tells us that the Treasury still clings to pure market theory. This says that people are rational and perfectly predict the consequences of the future in their current behaviour. So, the Treasury assumed people would know last June that the decision the UK had made would have poor long term consequences and people would immediately react by stopping spending and investment, so sending the UK into an immediate economic downturn.

 

Wiser economists, not so taken with a theory that is so obviously far-removed from observable human behaviour, realise that this is not what happens in the real world. People rarely shudder to economic halts. They do instead take time to process and react to new information. In this case at least six months was required to get to the reaction, and now we can see it. The uncertainty of our current situation, coupled with the reaction to a falling pound, has created lower income and consumer uncertainty. It will take something pretty staggering in economic terms to change either of those situations in the rest of this year.

 

Brexit may not have happened as yet. It may not happen still. But its economic impact has arrived. If people don’t like that life for the Brexiteers is just about together a lot tougher. As Philip Hammond put it, no one voted Brexit to be worse off. But people are just discovering that is what they got. And I’ll say with some confidence that many won’t like it. May’s honeymoon is well and truly over.

 

So you wait and wait for something bad to happen, ignore anything good then then say it takes 'x' amount of months for the impact to take effect..

 

Weird no one mentioned this 6 month lag time thing last year.

[Winnersaint]

Hmmm!

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/13/european-couple-stunned-as-uk-born-children-denied-residency?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+main+NEW+H+categories&utm_term=221737&subid=18430495&CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2

[John B]

So you wait and wait for something bad to happen, ignore anything good then then say it takes 'x' amount of months for the impact to take effect..

 

Weird no one mentioned this 6 month lag time thing last year.

 

I dont really understand how you could possibly vote in the referendum if did not understand the ramifications of leaving but just listened to the hype of lying politicans.

 

Leaving the EU is going to cause so many problems as it is so complicated and is very unlikely to show any tangible benefits for most of the population especially if the UK leaves the single market

[trousers]

Question.

 

If all the bad financial stuff that happens after the Brexit vote is to be blamed on Brexit, what do we blame for all the bad financial stuff that happened during the c.40 years before​ the Brexit vote...?

[hutch]

Margaret Thatcher

[trousers]

Margaret Thatcher

Phew! Thank gawd for that. I thought some buffoon might try to blame it on us being in the EU in the first place...

[buctootim]

So you wait and wait for something bad to happen, ignore anything good then then say it takes 'x' amount of months for the impact to take effect..

 

Weird no one mentioned this 6 month lag time thing last year.

 

Seriously? Does anyone dispute that it takes a minimum of six months and often years for any policy change to have an effect on the real economy.

[buctootim]

As the FT reported yesterday, retail sales excluding food fell in the first quarter of this year....despite supposed record levels of UK employment (about which claim I am dubious anyway) there was a fall in real wages last month, which is a trend set to continue because of current inflation rates. Now I know that technically this does not create a recession but for most people these are the factors that matter, and as a result economic bad news has arrived, but nine or so months later than George Osborne thought.

 

The other big factor is that people have been borrowing more and saving less, which has artificially fuelled demand post Brexit. By its nature this cant be sustained and will at some point go into reverse as people cut spending in order to service higher debts.

[farawaysaint]

If Le Penn wins I can see the Union collapsing. Personally I think this is a huge pity and it saddens me greatly but the will of the people and all.

[buctootim]

If Le Penn wins I can see the Union collapsing. Personally I think this is a huge pity and it saddens me greatly but the will of the people and all.

 

Cant see it. She may well be the most popular candidate, but probably also the one most people will actively vote against. The polls are suggesting she will win the first round but then be crushed by a centrist run off vote.

[aintforever]

Seriously? Does anyone dispute that it takes a minimum of six months and often years for any policy change to have an effect on the real economy.

 

Many in project fear clearly did prior to the vote.

[Lord Duckhunter]

The other big factor is that people have been borrowing more and saving less, which has artificially fuelled demand post Brexit. By its nature this cant be sustained and will at some point go into reverse as people cut spending in order to service higher debts.

 

That's been the case for the past decade, **** all to do with staying in or leaving the EU

 

 

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[shurlock]

That's been the case for the past decade, **** all to do with staying in or leaving the EU

 

 

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It is relevant: 2016 saw consumer credit grow at its fastest pace since the financial crisis.

[Lord Duckhunter]

It is relevant: 2016 saw consumer credit grow at its fastest pace since the financial crisis.

 

It's got **** all to do with a vote taken at the end of June.

 

 

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[buctootim]

It's got **** all to do with a vote taken at the end of June.

 

Whether it has or hasn't doesnt really matter, its perception which counts. Domestic demand since Brexit has been unsustainably high and that has flattered economic growth. That made a lot of people think the negative effects of Brexit were imaginary scare mongering. But high debt, expensive housing and wage settlements below inflation are going to be making a lot of people feel poorer. Brexit will get some of the blame for that. Combined with gradual job losses from the City - not massive immediately but drip drip the effect will be amplified. The full impact of Brexit will be seen after 20 years, not a couple of weeks after Article 50 but public opinion wont wait for the real verdict .

Edited 14 April, 2017 by buctootim

[Verbal]

Whether it has or hasn't doesnt really matter, its perception which counts. Domestic demand since Brexit has been unsustainably high and that has flattered economic growth. That made a lot of people think the negative effects of Brexit were imaginary scare mongering. But high debt, expensive housing and wage settlements below inflation are going to be making a lot of people feel poorer. Brexit will get some of the blame for that. Combined with gradual job losses from the City - not massive immediately but drip drip the effect will be amplified. The full impact of Brexit will be seen after 20 years, not a couple of weeks after Article 50 but public opinion wont wait for the real verdict .

 

Actually, it's more than perception. In the days after the referendum the Bank of England cut interest rates to the lowest they've been since the 1700s, and reintroduced quantitative easing. Both these measures had the effect of flooding the economy with cash, which was soaked up with the credit binge which has now got out of control. sustained property prices at ludicrous levels; and the crashing pound temporarily boosted share prices of companies with big overseas interests. Basically, therefore, the economy has been held aloft by a series of asset bubbles. Look at the real economy beyond those bubbles, at corporate investment and productivity, and the picture is getting ever grimmer. The economy is going down like the Titanic - imperceptibly slowly at first, but edging towards a dive to the sea floor.

[scotty]

Actually, it's more than perception. In the days after the referendum the Bank of England cut interest rates to the lowest they've been since the 1700s, and reintroduced quantitative easing. Both these measures had the effect of flooding the economy with cash, which was soaked up with the credit binge which has now got out of control. sustained property prices at ludicrous levels; and the crashing pound temporarily boosted share prices of companies with big overseas interests. Basically, therefore, the economy has been held aloft by a series of asset bubbles. Look at the real economy beyond those bubbles, at corporate investment and productivity, and the picture is getting ever grimmer. The economy is going down like the Titanic - imperceptibly slowly at first, but edging towards a dive to the sea floor.

 

That'll be the same economy that was going to implode when we failed to join the euro. Almost every economic commentator at the time was convinced that it meant isolation and destitution, but even pre-brexit you'd have been hard pressed to find anyone these days in favour of climbing into the eurozone bed, not even the lib dems. Apart from alex salmond, and he doesn't count.

[John B]

Actually, it's more than perception. In the days after the referendum the Bank of England cut interest rates to the lowest they've been since the 1700s, and reintroduced quantitative easing. Both these measures had the effect of flooding the economy with cash, which was soaked up with the credit binge which has now got out of control. sustained property prices at ludicrous levels; and the crashing pound temporarily boosted share prices of companies with big overseas interests. Basically, therefore, the economy has been held aloft by a series of asset bubbles. Look at the real economy beyond those bubbles, at corporate investment and productivity, and the picture is getting ever grimmer. The economy is going down like the Titanic - imperceptibly slowly at first, but edging towards a dive to the sea floor.

 

UK inflation is only going one way. Let's hope interest rates don't follow

[Lord Duckhunter]

That'll be the same economy that was going to implode when we failed to join the euro. Almost every economic commentator at the time was convinced that it meant isolation and destitution, but even pre-brexit you'd have been hard pressed to find anyone these days in favour of climbing into the eurozone bed, not even the lib dems. Apart from alex salmond, and he doesn't count.

 

Paddy Ashdown still thinks not joining the euro was a mistake. He was on Sunday politics 3 weeks ago saying exactly that

 

 

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[Verbal]

That'll be the same economy that was going to implode when we failed to join the euro. Almost every economic commentator at the time was convinced that it meant isolation and destitution, but even pre-brexit you'd have been hard pressed to find anyone these days in favour of climbing into the eurozone bed, not even the lib dems. Apart from alex salmond, and he doesn't count.

 

Any links to someone saying the British economy would 'implode' if we didn't join the Euro? I'd really like to see them.

 

As I recall, the debate was more about what was then called a 'two-speed' Europe, and it was more about differing rates of political integration rather than any idea that the wheels would fall off the economy.

 

Besides, even mainstream opinion among what are now called remainers was that joining the Euro was a bad idea - including Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown, whose 'tests' for joining were designed not to be met.

 

As for the idea that not joining the Euro is on a par with the economic impact of Brexit that's already being felt - well, Lord Pony has a word for that.

[Batman]

I dont really understand how you could possibly vote in the referendum if did not understand the ramifications of leaving but just listened to the hype of lying politicans.

 

Like George Osborne?

 

Just 1 in 10 of his immediate BREXIT forecast predictions/warnings have actually happened.

 

Tough gig

Edited 18 April, 2017 by Batman

[aintforever]

Any links to someone saying the British economy would 'implode' if we didn't join the Euro? I'd really like to see them.

 

As I recall, the debate was more about what was then called a 'two-speed' Europe, and it was more about differing rates of political integration rather than any idea that the wheels would fall off the economy.

 

Besides, even mainstream opinion among what are now called remainers was that joining the Euro was a bad idea - including Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown, whose 'tests' for joining were designed not to be met.

 

As for the idea that not joining the Euro is on a par with the economic impact of Brexit that's already being felt - well, Lord Pony has a word for that.

 

 

Just a quick google found this from 2003's Guardian, must be part of project fear pt 1:

 

Eleven of the world's top economists will announce this week that Britain should seize the 'historic opportunity' to join the single currency or face years in the economic wilderness, affecting billions of pounds of investment into the country and the wages of millions of people.

The findings of the first major report on the economic costs of staying outside the single currency will be seized on by euro-enthusiasts in Number 10 as further evidence that it would be folly to rule out a single currency for the lifetime of the Parliament.

 

Its contents were being circulated to Ministers this weekend ahead of an expected Cabinet debate on the issue before the end of the month. Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, the Chancellor, are engaged in tense discussions over the exact wording of the announcement of the five economic tests, the cornerstone of government policy on the euro, expected in the next three weeks.

 

 

Although the Government will say that the tests for joining the single currency have not yet been met, Blair is pushing the Treasury to ensure that the assessment of when Britain might join is not put off until the indefinite future.

 

The pro-euro camp will be further strengthened this week when Robin Cook, the former Foreign Secretary, will say that, alongside the economic costs, there will also be a political cost of staying out. Cook, in his first comments on the single currency since he quit the Cabinet earlier this year, will say that Britain will be in danger of losing influence over the future direction of Europe if it does not give a firm indication of its desire to join the euro.

 

The Begg Commission of leading economic experts was put together by Britain in Europe, the organisation campaigning for Britain to join the single currency.

 

But BiE officials insist the report is independent. Many of the economists on the commission are not euro-enthusiasts. 'It may look tempting to reject the euro on the grounds that, by keeping the pound, the UK can simply continue as it is today,' the report will say. 'But things will not stand still if the UK rejects the euro. In the long run, eurozone members will trade more with one another. They will have beneficial effects on which the UK will miss out.

 

'UK profitability and/or wages will suffer.' If Britain does not join, 'investment is likely to relocate towards the eurozone', the report continues. 'Some financial markets and institutions will follow.

[buctootim]

Just a quick google found this from 2003's Guardian, must be part of project fear pt 1:

 

Eleven of the world's top economists will announce this week that Britain should seize the 'historic opportunity' to join the single currency or face years in the economic wilderness, affecting billions of pounds of investment into the country and the wages of millions of people.

The findings of the first major report on the economic costs of staying outside the single currency will be seized on by euro-enthusiasts in Number 10 as further evidence that it would be folly to rule out a single currency for the lifetime of the Parliament.

 

Its contents were being circulated to Ministers this weekend ahead of an expected Cabinet debate on the issue before the end of the month. Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, the Chancellor, are engaged in tense discussions over the exact wording of the announcement of the five economic tests, the cornerstone of government policy on the euro, expected in the next three weeks.

 

 

Although the Government will say that the tests for joining the single currency have not yet been met, Blair is pushing the Treasury to ensure that the assessment of when Britain might join is not put off until the indefinite future.

 

The pro-euro camp will be further strengthened this week when Robin Cook, the former Foreign Secretary, will say that, alongside the economic costs, there will also be a political cost of staying out. Cook, in his first comments on the single currency since he quit the Cabinet earlier this year, will say that Britain will be in danger of losing influence over the future direction of Europe if it does not give a firm indication of its desire to join the euro.

 

The Begg Commission of leading economic experts was put together by Britain in Europe, the organisation campaigning for Britain to join the single currency.

 

But BiE officials insist the report is independent. Many of the economists on the commission are not euro-enthusiasts. 'It may look tempting to reject the euro on the grounds that, by keeping the pound, the UK can simply continue as it is today,' the report will say. 'But things will not stand still if the UK rejects the euro. In the long run, eurozone members will trade more with one another. They will have beneficial effects on which the UK will miss out.

 

'UK profitability and/or wages will suffer.' If Britain does not join, 'investment is likely to relocate towards the eurozone', the report continues. 'Some financial markets and institutions will follow.

 

That proves the opposite of what you intended. Even a report commissioned by a pro euro lobby group talks about lost opportunities and influence, not economic implosion.

[Guided Missile]

It looks like Trump read the OP...

US says Trump ready to agree trade deal with UK AS SOON AS POSSIBLE

THE US House of Representatives speaker Paul Ryan has revealed Donald Trump is ready to forge a new trade deal with Britain as soon as possible.