Brexit - Post Match Reaction

[Guided Missile]

Pound crashes as a result of the Commons vote on Brexit?:

 

 

There must be fortunes to be made in shorting our currency.

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

I misunderstand nothing in what you wrote, Charles; you misunderstand what I wrote. When I accused the so-called experts of getting it wrong, I was referring to the various agents of Project Fear, the CBI, PwC, the Chancellor of the Exchequer with his Treasury forecasts, the IMF, etc. All of their short term post referendum forecasts were wrong (and even the Bank of England has revised their forecasts too). My only mention of the Bank of England was to point out to you that Carney's pessimistic stance was challenged by his predecessor Lord King, whose opinion on Brexit was much more upbeat. However, even their "real thing" economic experts aren't immune to errors of judgement, as admitted by their chief economist:-

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-05/britons-to-throttle-back-spending-in-2017-boe-s-haldane-says

 

As Haldane says, economic expertise has taken a knock during and after the Referendum Campaign. Here's some more light reading for you on the subject:-

 

http://www.cityam.com/258614/brexit-has-humiliated-britains-failed-economic-soothsayers

http://www.cityam.com/258170/why-economics-profession-remains-blind-benefits-brexit

 

Interestingly, Carney doesn't agree with the BoE's chief economist over whether any admission was due that they had been overly pessimistic about the short term consequences of a leave vote in the referendum.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-11/carney-defends-boe-s-actions-on-brexit-disagrees-with-haldane

 

In any event, Carney took those necessary steps, made some adjustments, pulled some levers, did what one would have expected of him to steady the ship. After all, it is his job, and he knew perfectly well what was required even before the result of the referendum was known. Many would say that his reduction in the interest rate was totally unnecessary. The fall in the value of the pound was generally welcomed by many as it was deemed to be overvalued. However, Carney comes in for a lot of criticism for adopting too high a political profile during the referendum and of talking down the economy.

 

In your subsequent post, once again you are getting your knickers twisted somewhat. The winning bit referred to the referendum, the wait and see stance to your posts claiming that Brexit had beggared our future and that of our children.

 

I'm kind of flattered by the level of attention Les, but if only spending hours trawling the Internet for opinions that happen to coincide with your view was some kind of substitute for real learning then even you might one day find yourself travelling the road to wisdom. Alas that highway is not so easily navigated.

 

I see you have repeated the (highly dubious) claim that the significant fall in the value of Sterling since the referendum is somehow "welcomed". This is another of those (suspiciously convenient) arguments that Brexit supporters, such as yourself, have chosen to adopt only AFTER the currency crisis occurred. If that is wrong then do show the forum where you, or for that matter any prominent 'Vote Leave' campaigner, were calling for the pound to be devalued by 20% BEFORE the vote happened. No, it seems to me that anyone brave enough to predict a Sterling crisis prior to the referendum would have soon had the likes of you accusing them of engaging in the ever sinister "Project Fear" again. But never mind, the obvious hypocrisy here is at least mildly entertaining to me on what is afterall a rather dull morning.

 

The rise in inflation that will inevitably follow that fall in the value of the pound will certainly not be "welcomed" methinks by the many millions of your fellow citizens who have little choice but to exist on a low or fixed income. As you have been told before the economy is currently being supported almost solely by consumer spending and confidence. So when the modest rise in real (i.e. adjusted for inflation) incomes we have seen recently in the UK comes to a premature end - because increased inflation erodes real income growth of course - then how do you imagine that blow will effect this consumer dependent economy? To answer my own question 'negatively' is the correct response.

 

As for your concluding remarks, I gather you are now attempting to sidestep yesterday's obvious 'double standard' by claiming that you were (for some reason) referring to last year's referendum result, rather than this week's absurd claim to be "won" the post-referendum economic argument. Taken in the context of your recent contributions on here this would appear to be yet another of your unconvincing attempts at evasion. The fundamental problem here I feel is that your limited sense of self-awareness tends to lead you into this type of error time and time again. Being the helpful type I would like to suggest a remedy for this serve handicap - but I fear that your condition is far beyond the power of medical science to cure.

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

Pound crashes as a result of the Commons vote on Brexit?:

 

 

There must be fortunes to be made in shorting our currency.

 

Or the pound has risen because the money markets suspect that interest rates will be going up soon.

[shurlock]

Pound crashes as a result of the Commons vote on Brexit?:

 

 

There must be fortunes to be made in shorting our currency.

 

Glad to see you're still smarting from the egg on your face from a few weeks ago :lol:

 

I understand Trident it was both embarrassing and incompetent.

 

[Guided Missile]

Or the pound has risen because the money markets suspect that interest rates will be going up soon.

I agree 100% with this. The reason the market thinks interest rates might be going up? Because the UK economy is doing so well. As you have posted in the past, the BoE cut interest rates to support a perceived weakness in the economy, post Brexit. As we now know, they were wrong. Interest rates won't be going up soon, in my opinion, anyway. We are on the cusp of a weak currency, export lead, growth boom and I can't wait.

 

Still, nice to have a Remainer like you agreeing that interest rates are now driving the value of the pound more than whether we stay inside or outside the EU. We finally have control of our currency value again, unlike Greece and the other sick men of Europe.

[shurlock]

Just because there's a lot of high earning EU nationals, does not mean that at the lower end of the wage scale,uncontrolled EU migration has not suppressed wages. But you crack on with dismissing people's concerns and keep calling them liars. Personally, I'm grateful for people with your attitude because without people like you , Brexit would never have happened. Your ilk have even ensured we have a "hard" Brexit. So I'm doubly thankful. The whinging and whining is just the icing on the cake. Perfect.....

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

And where's the evidence that the adverse effects on wages have been large?

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

I agree 100% with this. The reason the market thinks interest rates might be going up? Because the UK economy is doing so well. As you have posted in the past, the BoE cut interest rates to support a perceived weakness in the economy, post Brexit. As we now know, they were wrong. Interest rates won't be going up soon, in my opinion, anyway. We are on the cusp of a weak currency, export lead, growth boom and I can't wait.

 

Still, nice to have a Remainer like you agreeing that interest rates are now driving the value of the pound more than whether we stay inside or outside the EU. We finally have control of our currency value again, unlike Greece and the other sick men of Europe.

 

Characteristically you (over) simplify a complex issue. There are of course a number of reasons why Sterling has of late recovered some of its post referendum losses - the state of the wider world economy may well be one, but the money markets also seem to fear that France may soon be infected with the same madness that struck this country last year and leave the EU. Only time will tell on that one.

[Guided Missile]

This may help the day traders...

Forbes argues the Bank may be overly cautious in their stance on future inflationary pressures and the appropriate response via interest rate settings to these pressures. She says the Bank must not discriminate in their response to economic reality - interest rate cuts should come as easy as interest rate rises do. There is certainly a bias in global central bank circles for pre-emptive moves in cutting rates to defend economic growth but notable feet-dragging when it comes to raising rates. This could be because inflationary pressures have been so nascent; after all, higher rates are considered useful when attempting to stem accelerating inflation.

“I believe that the MPC should be nimble and willing to quickly adjust the appropriate path for monetary policy in either direction as needed throughout this period,” says Forbes. Forbes says we must not discount the data we have at hand which suggests the UK economy is growing at above-trend rates. In her opinion the risks to a substantial overshoot to the Bank’s inflation forecasts are high.

The UK economy is strong and has shown impressive resilience in the face of Brexit uncertainty having been the fastest growing G7 economy in 2016. Forbes believes forecasters overemphasised the uncertainty the vote caused on consumers and businesses.

She notes too that uncertainty itself is by no means a precursor to weaker economic growth when the supply of credit and easy money to consumers and businesses is as generous as is currently the case in the UK. i.e any negative impact on the economy of any uncertainty stemming from the EU referendum would have been felt were the supply of credit restricted as was the case during the financial crisis of 2008.

“Monetary policy, however, should not go on hold simply due to heightened uncertainty and volatility. It may take many years for a new regime to be agreed on and a new equilibrium to be reached,” says Forbes. Forbes notes that the Bank’s forecasters are actually pretty accurate - the catch however is that the accurate forecasts at the Bank are those made prior to the referendum based on a Remain vote winning. At that time the Bank of England was actively entertaining raising interest rates.

Yet we now have the case where the economy is performing at a pace that exceeds its long-term average AND interest rates have been cut and asset purchases accelerated. Forbes therefore believes there is too much easy money in an economy that is performing well, and this could well overcook prices.

“If these trends in both the real and nominal data are solidified, it will become increasingly difficult for me to justify tolerating such a large and likely overshoot of inflation - especially when compared to such a small and uncertain softening in growth and unemployment,” says Forbes. It is argued that the risks of an immediate rate are negligible given today’s extremely low level of Bank Rate, and the substantial amount of monetary stimulus that is already in place through a variety of programs, would still leave a substantial amount of monetary support for the economy. “If the real economy remains solid and the pickup in the nominal data continues, this could soon suggest an increase in Bank Rate,” says Forbes.

[shurlock]

Or the pound has risen because the money markets suspect that interest rates will be going up soon.

 

The specific chart Trident has put up shows that the pound has barely moved in % terms against the euro, so the chart alone tells very little (of course, Trident wouldn't know either way as he's innumerate).

 

In terms of very recent movements, am sure that markets have welcomed ithe short-term increase in political certainty that has come with the vote -and has little to do with the anticipation of higher interest rates.

Edited 9 February, 2017 by shurlock

[Weston Super Saint]

And where's the evidence that the adverse effects on wages have been large?

 

Would you count the Brexit vote as evidence?

 

Or does evidence only ever come from academics in published papers - which are, by and large, mere opinions?

[Guided Missile]

France may soon be infected with the same madness that struck this country last year and leave the EU. Only time will tell on that one.

The madness you are talking about is called democracy. Something that is in short supply in the EU. Thanks for the comment that I somehow don't understand a complex issue. I happen to have been dead right on the degree of impact (or lack of) Brexit would have on our economy, from last June and the fact that we should and would, be able to negotiate a free trade deal with the US. You, George Osborne, the BoE and the Treasury have been totally wrong, so cut the patronising bullsh!t, matey and admit you didn't have a clue, apart from some post facto posturing. At least the other clueless remainers have had the decency to disappear from this thread, rather than looking like chumps.

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

The madness you are talking about is called democracy. Something that is in short supply in the EU. Thanks for the comment that I somehow don't understand a complex issue. I happen to have been dead right on the degree of impact (or lack of) Brexit would have on our economy, from last June and the fact that we should and would, be able to negotiate a free trade deal with the US. You, George Osborne, the BoE and the Treasury have been totally wrong, so cut the patronising bullsh!t, matey and admit you didn't have a clue, apart from some post facto posturing. At least the other clueless remainers have had the decency to disappear from this thread, rather than looking like chumps.

 

Well I do quite like you GM - mainly because you are so entertainingly 'over the top' all the time. However, I wouldn't go so far as to describe myself as your mate. As for the power of democracy somehow precluding possibility of collective madness - it would seem that the two concepts can coexist quite happily as recent US and UK votes demonstrate.

[shurlock]

Would you count the Brexit vote as evidence?

 

Or does evidence only ever come from academics in published papers - which are, by and large, mere opinions?

 

Why are they mere opinions? We're not talking about forecasts, we're talking about empirical evidence, based on observed changes.

 

There are plenty of reasons why we shouldn't infer too much from the 'vote' - for starters can individuals separate out the impact of immigration on wages from other factors -technological and industrial change, import competition, the decline of union power, welfare cuts and historically low levels of social mobility? Never mind that people didn't just vote leave because of immigration and wages.

Edited 9 February, 2017 by shurlock

[Guided Missile]

As for the power of democracy somehow precluding possibility of collective madness - it would seem that the two concepts can coexist quite happily as recent US and UK votes demonstrate.

I think all I have to say is that, given the total lack of evidence to the contrary, you are a patronising, clueless, self-opinionated windbag. I do hope that is not too "over the top", matey...

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

I think all I have to say is that, given the total lack of evidence to the contrary, you are a patronising, clueless, self-opinionated windbag. I do hope that is not too "over the top", matey...

 

You seem quite angry today mate - even by your standards. Tell uncle Charlie what's the matter?

[Guided Missile]

You seem quite angry today mate - even by your standards. Tell uncle Charlie what's the matter?

I'm not angry, but while we're at it, I dislike your total contempt for democracy and refusal to admit you were wrong about the consequences of Brexit. For those two reasons, I shall refrain from calling you matey and use the term, clueless chump, or CC, in future. OK, CC?

[Wes Tender]

I'm kind of flattered by the level of attention Les, but if only spending hours trawling the Internet for opinions that happen to coincide with your view was some kind of substitute for real learning then even you might one day find yourself travelling the road to wisdom. Alas that highway is not so easily navigated.

 

I see you have repeated the (highly dubious) claim that the significant fall in the value of Sterling since the referendum is somehow "welcomed". This is another of those (suspiciously convenient) arguments that Brexit supporters, such as yourself, have chosen to adopt only AFTER the currency crisis occurred. If that is wrong then do show the forum where you, or for that matter any prominent 'Vote Leave' campaigner, were calling for the pound to be devalued by 20% BEFORE the vote happened. No, it seems to me that anyone brave enough to predict a Sterling crisis prior to the referendum would have soon had the likes of you accusing them of engaging in the ever sinister "Project Fear" again. But never mind, the obvious hypocrisy here is at least mildly entertaining to me on what is afterall a rather dull morning.

 

The rise in inflation that will inevitably follow that fall in the value of the pound will certainly not be "welcomed" methinks by the many millions of your fellow citizens who have little choice but to exist on a low or fixed income. As you have been told before the economy is currently being supported almost solely by consumer spending and confidence. So when the modest rise in real (i.e. adjusted for inflation) incomes we have seen recently in the UK comes to a premature end - because increased inflation erodes real income growth of course - then how do you imagine that blow will effect this consumer dependent economy? To answer my own question 'negatively' is the correct response.

 

As for your concluding remarks, I gather you are now attempting to sidestep yesterday's obvious 'double standard' by claiming that you were (for some reason) referring to last year's referendum result, rather than this week's absurd claim to be "won" the post-referendum economic argument. Taken in the context of your recent contributions on here this would appear to be yet another of your unconvincing attempts at evasion. The fundamental problem here I feel is that your limited sense of self-awareness tends to lead you into this type of error time and time again. Being the helpful type I would like to suggest a remedy for this serve handicap - but I fear that your condition is far beyond the power of medical science to cure.

 

Spending hours trawling the internet? I deduce from your rather stuffy, old fashioned style of articulating your points, together with this assertion, that you aren't really very up to date with modern technology. It takes but a few moments nowadays to Google whatever information one seeks to support one's stance in a debate. It shouldn't be a surprise to you that those points will be supportive of my views, as I'm hardly like to post those that oppose them, am I? But congratulations on the arrogant inference that those views were somehow unrealistic or unwise. Perhaps you would care to debate the areas in them where you disagree with the points they make.

 

As you say, the road to wisdom is indeed not easily navigated, as you prove so ably yourself.

 

As for the fall in the value of the pound and the possibility of a rise in inflation, I don't recall there being much fuss being made about it either way on the pre-referendum thread. I have already indicated that there are benefits to our exporters from the fall in the value of the pound, but as others have posted subsequently, the currency tends to rise and fall in value depending on all sorts of criteria other than our Brexit, like what happens in America that effects the dollar and events in the EU or Eurozone that effects the Euro. You yourself even acknowledge these factors a few posts hence.

 

Regarding inflation, let's wait and see how that goes, shall we? In any event, it is unlikely to end up at the level that it had been in past decades and I would expect that once we have left the EU and begin to increase our economic prosperity as a result, any increase will be reversed. Inflation in the Eurozone is on the way up too, by the way.

 

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/inflation-cpi

 

Regarding your last paragraph, yes, I confirm that I was referring to the referendum in connection to we Brexiteers having won and to the future regarding the comment about us having to wait and see. So no double standards, but an inability on your part to comprehend a simple post covering two positions which you were unable to separate.

 

You offered to suggest a remedy for the limited self-awareness you believe me to possess - a serve handicap you call it, whatever that is. New Balls! As I am also a generous helpful sort too, I'll offer in return a cure regime for your arrogant smugness and superiority complex. Is it a deal?

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

I'm not angry, but while we're at it, I dislike your total contempt for democracy and refusal to admit you were wrong about the consequences of Brexit. For those two reasons, I shall refrain from calling you matey and use the term, clueless chump, or CC, in future. OK, CC?

 

Well if I may say so you do come across as being quite a angry person - the stream of 'play ground' style insults tend to give this impression. But I'm obviously overjoyed to learn that this is not the case

[Wes Tender]

Well if I may say so you do come across as being quite a angry person - the stream of 'play ground' style insults tend to give this impression. But I'm obviously overjoyed to learn that this is not the case

 

You really ought to have a look in the mirror, you hypocrite.

 

Mind you, when it comes down to playground style insults, Shurlock is in a league of his own.

[shurlock]

Well if I may say so you do come across as being quite a angry person - the stream of 'play ground' style insults tend to give this impression. But I'm obviously overjoyed to learn that this is not the case

 

Out of the kippers on here, he does come across as the most insecure, that's for sure.

[shurlock]

You really ought to have a look in the mirror, you hypocrite.

 

Mind you, when it comes down to playground style insults, Shurlock is in a league of his own.

 

You called Les? Whatever happened to shatlock...

[Wes Tender]

You called Les? Whatever happened to shatlock...

 

Whatever happened to Wes?

[Guided Missile]

Four quotes from my hero, Winston Churchill, seem quite apposite at the moment.

 

When asked what qualities a politician required:

The ability to foretell what is going to happen tomorrow, next week, next month, and next year – and to have the ability afterwards to explain why it didn’t happen.

 

The British nation is unique.... They are the only people who like to be told how bad things are, who like to be told the worst, and like to be told that they are very likely to get much worse in the future and must prepare themselves for further reverses.

 

If you make 10,000 regulations, you destroy all respect for the law.

 

and one for Donald Trump:

 

How dreadful are the curses which Mohammedanism lays on its votaries! Besides the fanatical frenzy, which is as dangerous in a man as hydrophobia in a dog, there is this fearful fatalistic apathy. The effects are apparent in many countries. Improvident habits, slovenly systems of agriculture, sluggish methods of commerce, and insecurity of property exist wherever the followers of the Prophet rule or live. A degraded sensualism deprives this life of its grace and refinement; the next of its dignity and sanctity. The fact that in Mohammedan law every woman must belong to some man as his absolute property, either as a child, a wife, or a concubine, must delay the final extinction of slavery until the faith of Islam has ceased to be a great power among men.

Individual Moslems may show splendid qualities. Thousands become the brave and loyal soldiers of the Queen; all know how to die; but the influence of the religion paralyses the social development of those who follow it. No stronger retrograde force exists in the world. Far from being moribund, Mohammedanism is a militant and proselytizing faith. It has already spread throughout Central Africa, raising fearless warriors at every step; and were it not that Christianity is sheltered in the strong arms of science, the science against which it had vainly struggled, the civilisation of modern Europe might fall, as fell the civilisation of ancient Rome.

Edited 9 February, 2017 by Guided Missile

[buctootim]

"our task is to re-create the European Family, or as much of it as we can, and provide it with a structure under which it can dwell in peace, in safety and in freedom. We must build a kind of United States of Europe"

 

Winston Churchill, Zurich 1949

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

You really ought to have a look in the mirror, you hypocrite.

 

The Mirror? I could have sworn that you were the Daily Mail type

[shurlock]

"our task is to re-create the European Family, or as much of it as we can, and provide it with a structure under which it can dwell in peace, in safety and in freedom. We must build a kind of United States of Europe"

 

Winston Churchill, Zurich 1949

 

"National sovereignty is not inviolable, and it may be resolutely diminished for the sake of all men in all the lands finding their way home together."

 

#takebackcontrol

[Wes Tender]

"our task is to re-create the European Family, or as much of it as we can, and provide it with a structure under which it can dwell in peace, in safety and in freedom. We must build a kind of United States of Europe"

 

Winston Churchill, Zurich 1949

 

That statement is as old as I am. If you read this article by Heath in the Not Independent many moons ago, although he claims that Churchill would not have been a Eurosceptic, there are certainly parts of the piece that are open to some degree of interpretation, or capable of challenge on the basis of how the European project has altered since the article was written.

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/a-euro-sceptic-churchill-never-1365239.html

 

Heath says that

Churchill was reluctant to embrace full British membership of the European Community only because he believed that Britain was the central pillar of a triumvirate for the maintenance of world order consisting of the Commonwealth as a unit, the United States and a united Europe

 

In other words at the time of the Zurich quote he had envisaged a united Europe, but without us, as we would have been part of a bloc including the Commonwealth.

 

As events unfolded and with the independence of much of the Commonwealth, he seems to have been acquiescent to the notion of joining the European Economic Community, The Common Market. So was I at the time. After all, it was only as the name suggested, a trade arrangement.

 

But attempting to presume that he would have been content for us to have been part of the EU with the loss of sovereignty that we have suffered, the subjugation of our laws to the ECJ, and no control over our borders, is fanciful in the extreme. I suspect that he would be turning over in his grave.

[Wes Tender]

The Mirror? I could have sworn that you were the Daily Mail type

 

Daily Torygraph actually.

 

But is senility creeping in, Charles? I clearly suggested that you looked in the mirror. As the word was not capitalised, it referred to the reflective glass object usually hung on a wall.

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

Whoosh ...

[badgerx16]

 

and one for Donald Trump:

"How dreadful are the curses which Mohammedanism lays on its votaries! Besides the fanatical frenzy, which is as dangerous in a man as hydrophobia in a dog, there is this fearful fatalistic apathy. The effects are apparent in many countries. Improvident habits, slovenly systems of agriculture, sluggish methods of commerce, and insecurity of property exist wherever the followers of the Prophet rule or live. A degraded sensualism deprives this life of its grace and refinement; the next of its dignity and sanctity. The fact that in Mohammedan law every woman must belong to some man as his absolute property, either as a child, a wife, or a concubine, must delay the final extinction of slavery until the faith of Islam has ceased to be a great power among men.

Individual Moslems may show splendid qualities. Thousands become the brave and loyal soldiers of the Queen; all know how to die; but the influence of the religion paralyses the social development of those who follow it. No stronger retrograde force exists in the world. Far from being moribund, Mohammedanism is a militant and proselytizing faith. It has already spread throughout Central Africa, raising fearless warriors at every step; and were it not that Christianity is sheltered in the strong arms of science, the science against which it had vainly struggled, the civilisation of modern Europe might fall, as fell the civilisation of ancient Rome."

Re the above quote - "In his book The River War (1899) – his account of the frontier wars of India and Sudan – he was scathing of the fundamentalist, ultra conservative Mahdiyya form of Islam adopted by the Dervish population of North Africa"

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/religion/11314580/Sir-Winston-Churchill-s-family-feared-he-might-convert-to-Islam.html

 

"But what may come as a surprise is that he was a strong admirer of Islam and the culture of the Orient — such was his regard for the Muslim faith that relatives feared he might convert. "

 

"Not only did Churchill appear to regard Islam and Christianity as equals – a surprisingly progressive notion for the time – but he also admired the military prowess and history of expansion of the Ottoman Empire. "

[Johnny Bognor]

In other news...

 

Apple 'optimistic' about post-Brexit UK...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38920860

[buctootim]

Immigration could rise after Brexit. Liam Fox has admitted that he doesnt know of any trade deals which do not include preferential treatment for the citizens of trade partners. #wegotourcountrybackandkickedthewogsoutermactuallywait

Edited 10 February, 2017 by buctootim

[buctootim]

That statement is as old as I am. If you read this article by Heath in the Not Independent many moons ago, although he claims that Churchill would not have been a Eurosceptic, there are certainly parts of the piece that are open to some degree of interpretation, or capable of challenge on the basis of how the European project has altered since the article was written.

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/a-euro-sceptic-churchill-never-1365239.html

 

Heath says that

 

In other words at the time of the Zurich quote he had envisaged a united Europe, but without us, as we would have been part of a bloc including the Commonwealth.

 

As events unfolded and with the independence of much of the Commonwealth, he seems to have been acquiescent to the notion of joining the European Economic Community, The Common Market. So was I at the time. After all, it was only as the name suggested, a trade arrangement.

 

Obviously no-one can say what long dead people would have done now in changed circumstances. However we know Churchill was supportive of the European project. He backed Macmillan and Heath as Tory leaders / PMs against eurosceptic candidates. He was clearly pro close European co-operation in many spheres - was prepared to pool some sovereignty to secure benefits and even to contribute forces to a European army.

Edited 10 February, 2017 by buctootim

[moonraker]

In other news, approval of life saving drugs to be very likley to delayed after Brexit, Farmers not getting paid on time and do not know what they will get post Brexit .......

[Wes Tender]

Obviously no-one can say what long dead people would have done now in changed circumstances. However we know is that Churchill was supportive of the European project. He backed Macmillan and Heath as Tory leaders / PMs against eurosceptic candidates. He was clearly pro close European co-operation in many spheres - was prepared to pool some sovereignty to secure benefits and even to contribute forces to a European army.

 

As you say, nobody can say what long dead people would have done now in changed circumstances. Better to leave it there then, instead of employing useless conjecture based on his thoughts so long ago.

[Wes Tender]

In other news, approval of life saving drugs to be very likley to delayed after Brexit, Farmers not getting paid on time and do not know what they will get post Brexit .......

 

You mean the Brexit which hasn't even begun the process to come into effect yet? There is a long list of likely and unlikely things that may or may not occur when that time comes. Learn from the numerous dire things that were predicted to happen immediately following a referendum vote to leave the EU and didn't. Wait and see, is my advice although I realise though how much you would like there to chaos, so that you can say that you told us so.

[shurlock]

You mean the Brexit which hasn't even begun the process to come into effect yet? There is a long list of likely and unlikely things that may or may not occur when that time comes. Learn from the numerous dire things that were predicted to happen immediately following a referendum vote to leave the EU and didn't. Wait and see, is my advice although I realise though how much you would like there to chaos, so that you can say that you told us so.

 

Don't be a moron Les.

[OldNick]

http://www.hl.co.uk/news/2017/2/10/the-multi-billion-euro-exit-charge-that-could-sink-brexit-talks

[Johnny Bognor]

http://www.hl.co.uk/news/2017/2/10/the-multi-billion-euro-exit-charge-that-could-sink-brexit-talks

 

So this article confirms that the financial cost of membership is about £60bn more than the £350m a week????

[Wes Tender]

http://www.hl.co.uk/news/2017/2/10/the-multi-billion-euro-exit-charge-that-could-sink-brexit-talks

 

A particularly alarmist piece. I love the assessment from the Financial Times journalist that the payment could range from 24.5 - 72.8 billion Euros. It is good to have these financial forecasts tied down so precisely.

 

I can understand that as the second biggest net contributor to the EU slush fund, we would leave a massive hole in their finances and that there will be howls of anguish from both the other net contributors who will have to stump up more and the net beneficiaries who will not want the portions on their plates to diminish. Equally, as the article points out, there will much outrage in our Red Tops if the sum we have to pay is deemed to be excessive. I have already been amused by a media suggestion that we pay nothing and what could they do about it; invade us?

 

There is a lot of posturing about whether either side holds the whip hand and suggestions that we will not be able to negotiate single market access without stumping up huge wodges of cash would also be an act of self harm by them when we retaliate, so common sense should prevail. But it seems OK for them to threaten this sort of action, but they don't like it when we suggest that we will make our tax regime much more attractive to inwards investment and be prepared to walk away with no EU deal rather than a bad one, whilst arranging several bilateral trade deals with numerous other World partners in the meantime.

 

But just as this article paints a doomsday scenario that the exit talks could sink Brexit, there was a very good programme on the box last night on Brexit that suggested that events in other EU member states in the next two years could result in the collapse of the EU before we have even left.

[shurlock]

A particularly alarmist piece. I love the assessment from the Financial Times journalist that the payment could range from 24.5 - 72.8 billion Euros. It is good to have these financial forecasts tied down so precisely.

 

I can understand that as the second biggest net contributor to the EU slush fund, we would leave a massive hole in their finances and that there will be howls of anguish from both the other net contributors who will have to stump up more and the net beneficiaries who will not want the portions on their plates to diminish. Equally, as the article points out, there will much outrage in our Red Tops if the sum we have to pay is deemed to be excessive. I have already been amused by a media suggestion that we pay nothing and what could they do about it; invade us?

 

There is a lot of posturing about whether either side holds the whip hand and suggestions that we will not be able to negotiate single market access without stumping up huge wodges of cash would also be an act of self harm by them when we retaliate, so common sense should prevail. But it seems OK for them to threaten this sort of action, but they don't like it when we suggest that we will make our tax regime much more attractive to inwards investment and be prepared to walk away with no EU deal rather than a bad one, whilst arranging several bilateral trade deals with numerous other World partners in the meantime.

 

But just as this article paints a doomsday scenario that the exit talks could sink Brexit, there was a very good programme on the box last night on Brexit that suggested that events in other EU member states in the next two years could result in the collapse of the EU before we have even left.

 

Jihadi Les- you are on a roll today. The collapse of the EU would be nothing short of a huge negative shock for the global economy -whatever one's views are on the merits of Brexit. When you hear flippant comments like this -and they pepper this place, you realise that extreme Brexiters don't have a f**king clue.

[Johnny Bognor]

Jihadi Les- you are on a roll today. The collapse of the EU would be nothing short of a huge negative shock for the global economy -whatever one's views are on the merits of Brexit. When you hear flippant comments like this -and they pepper this place, you realise that extreme Brexiters don't have a f**king clue.

 

There's nothing wrong with the EU collapsing and then reverting back to the EEC/common market, which is what we all signed up to.

[Wes Tender]

Jihadi Les- you are on a roll today. The collapse of the EU would be nothing short of a huge negative shock for the global economy -whatever one's views are on the merits of Brexit. When you hear flippant comments like this -and they pepper this place, you realise that extreme Brexiters don't have a f**king clue.

 

Jihadi Les? You're excelling yourself today. Another childish bit of name-calling to add to your already extensive repertoire, more claims that anybody who disagrees with you doesn't have a clue and even some industrial language! Calm down, dear, don't get your knickers in a twist. It wasn't me who raised the possibility of the collapse of the EU before the two year Article 50 period was over; it was the reporter on the documentary.

 

Perhaps you didn't see it, but it covered the growing unrest in Southern Europe and Greece because of the Euro crisis, the probable collapse of Italian Banks, the high youth unemployment, the rise of populist parties in Eastern Europe, particularly Hungary and also Holland, Italy and France because of the problems caused to them by mass immigration. I have little doubt that the Euro won't survive, as it is plainly the cause of much of the economic problems in Greece, Italy and Spain in particular. As you know, there are elections in many of the EU member states in the near future and the programme speculated on the potential outcomes.

 

As JB says though, it would be no bad thing at all if the EU finally came to its senses, maintained the federal agenda only for any member state that wanted it and reverted back to the original Common Market for the others that didn't. Would the member states all of a sudden stop trading with each other or us and the rest of the World? If not, then why would there be a global crisis?

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

Obviously no-one can say what long dead people would have done now in changed circumstances. However we know Churchill was supportive of the European project. He backed Macmillan and Heath as Tory leaders / PMs against eurosceptic candidates. He was clearly pro close European co-operation in many spheres - was prepared to pool some sovereignty to secure benefits and even to contribute forces to a European army.

 

As any student of the great man and indeed of British history generally should understand, Winston Churchill was both a ardent imperialist and a committed internationalist too. It is a matter of record that at one point early on during in his first premiership Churchill actually proposed that a form of political union between Great Britain and France be created. This bold concept, a child born of wartime crisis, was I understand to be a "complete and indissoluble union". In many ways this alliance would have far exceed the ambition and scope of the EU today. Before the usual suspects chip in with their 'two penneth worth', for quite obvious reasons May 1940 was not exactly the ideal moment in time for this revolutionary notion to be expanded from a bilateral Franco-British affair to the rest of continental Europe ...

 

The subject is a rather controversial one, but there is some reason to believe that this now almost inconceivable idea was covertly resurrected by the postwar French Prime Minister Guy Mallet in the 1950's. Had his tentative plan not been rejected by more conservative forces - on both sides of the Channel - then joint citizenship arrangements may have been introduced and HM Queen Elizabeth could actually have achieved the ancient ambition of so may British monarchs before her and become the Queen of France too.

 

One of those intriguing 'not to be' possibilities that history does throw up from time to time.

[shurlock]

There's nothing wrong with the EU collapsing and then reverting back to the EEC/common market, which is what we all signed up to.

 

And there are some on here who are positively willing it to collapse.

 

 

But tell me Baldrick how's that going to happen? a magic switch you can flick resulting a gradual, planned and orderly unwinding of existing political, economic and legal commitments? No pal a collapse would be just that...a collapse. It would entail massive adjustment costs and expose the global economy to all kinds of market uncertainty and contagion -never mind external pressures from countries like Russia all too happy to exploit instability to their advantage.

 

You and your fellow jihadists are living on another planet. I'd trust a toddler with a machete than you with the economy.

Edited 11 February, 2017 by shurlock

[Wes Tender]

And there are some on here who are positively willing it to collapse.

 

 

But tell me Baldrick how's that going to happen? a magic switch you can flick resulting a gradual, planned and orderly unwinding of existing political, economic and legal commitments? No pal a collapse would be just that...a collapse. It would entail massive adjustment costs and expose the global economy to all kinds of market uncertainty and contagion -never mind external pressures from countries like Russia all too happy to exploit instability to their advantage.

 

You and your fellow jihadis are living on another planet. I'd trust a toddler with a machete than you with the economy.

I'm really becoming concerned for your sanity after this latest little outburst from you. This ridiculous labelling of Brexit supporters as jihadists is just plain bizarre on every level. I would be interested in your explanation for it. I'm afraid that this sort of puerile, infantile name calling does your credibility as a serious poster no good at all.

[shurlock]

I'm really becoming concerned for your sanity after this latest little outburst from you. This ridiculous labelling of Brexit supporters as jihadists is just plain bizarre on every level. I would be interested in your explanation for it. I'm afraid that this sort of puerile, infantile name calling does your credibility as a serious poster no good at all.

 

 

Jihadi Les: I'm afraid its not my own work - I have Claire Perry to thank for that one. It's obviously ruffled a few feathers. Tim Shipman in his excellent book on Brexit also draws a similar analogy.

[buctootim]

I'm really becoming concerned for your sanity after this latest little outburst from you. This ridiculous labelling of Brexit supporters as jihadists is just plain bizarre on every level. I would be interested in your explanation for it. I'm afraid that this sort of puerile, infantile name calling does your credibility as a serious poster no good at all.

 

She seems pretty acute to me.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38901675

[Goatboy]

She seems pretty acute to me.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38901675

 

I wouldn't pay much attention to anyone wearing a load of bum grapes around her neck.

[Wes Tender]

 

Jihadi Les: I'm afraid its not my own work - I have Claire Perry to thank for that one. It's obviously ruffled a few feathers. Tim Shipman in his excellent book on Brexit also draws a similar analogy.

 

Regardless, it's such a crap analogy, that you demean yourself by using it.

 

Just in case you missed the excellent documentary on Brexit and the political upheaval in the EU, here is a link to it on i-player

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b08dx4lz/this-world-after-brexit-the-battle-for-europe

 

There's enough time to watch it before the match starts.