Brexit - Post Match Reaction

[Johnny Bognor]

I see that you go on to attempt to underplay the true significance of the Pound's fall by stating that our currency was overvalued before the referendum - in your opinion that is. In reality there is very little reason to believe that claim - in general market forces decide what a currency is truly worth - and I must say this claim would sound more convincing coming from you now had you said this BEFORE the referendum outcome. But I don't recall you claiming that - probably because you were too busy telling anyone who would listen to you that there would be NO possible averse consequences of this nation voting your way. Such a possibility is just incompatible with your world view is it not?

 

Are you for real????

 

IMF states £ overvalued - 2015

https://fullfact.org/economy/exchange-rates-and-imf/

 

Deutsche Bank state £ is the most overlaued currency in the world - Dec-15

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/12065157/Pound-is-most-overvalued-currency-in-the-world-analysts-claim.html

 

 

I could go on, but the consensus of most analysts and institutions, was that the £ was overvalued... the IMF stated in July, that despite the fall after the referendum, it's STILL overvalued.

 

A correction would/should have happened at some point anyway, the referendum vote was merely a catalyst...

[shurlock]

Are you for real????

 

IMF states £ overvalued - 2015

https://fullfact.org/economy/exchange-rates-and-imf/

 

Deutsche Bank state £ is the most overlaued currency in the world - Dec-15

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/12065157/Pound-is-most-overvalued-currency-in-the-world-analysts-claim.html

 

 

I could go on, but the consensus of most analysts and institutions, was that the £ was overvalued... the IMF stated in July, that despite the fall after the referendum, it's STILL overvalued.

 

A correction would/should have happened at some point anyway, the referendum vote was merely a catalyst...

 

Afternoon Baldrick

 

What does this characteristic piece of gobbledygook "the IMF stated in July, that despite the fall after the referendum, it's STILL overvalued" mean? How can something be STILL overvalued based on a statement that is 6 months old?

 

Needless to say the consensus is that the £ is now significantly undervalued.

 

By the way, I didn't hear back after your Monnet meltdown. I did some digging and found the paper your pal Ottaviano wrote as a fellow "Integration, Agglomeration and the Political Economics of Factor Mobility", avidly looking forward to some juicy propaganda.

 

Alas I was disappointed. The paper analyses the geographical inequalities and disparities that have emerged with the creation of the Single Market. In particular, it explores the circumstances under which EU regional policy might have a role to play in addressing them. The answer: it depends. In some cases when transport costs are low or high, it should do nothing from an efficiency-perspective.

 

For those cases where policy intervention is justified on both efficiency and equity grounds, it assesses whether the actual mechanics of EU policymaking are capable of delivering 'good' outcomes. Again, the answer is ambiguous: there have been some useful institutional innovations in this direction but the effectiveness of the Commission and other institutions also have structural weaknesses, due in part to the democratic deficit that prevents effective information-gathering and feedback.

 

That's about it as one would expect from research. Not quite Eye of Providence stuff but maybe next time pal...

Edited 9 January, 2017 by shurlock

[Wes Tender]

Well I always take great care to read your regular little missives addressed to me - the problem with attempting to make any sense of them is that you are so very inconsistent is is becoming increasingly hard to comprehend you. It makes no sense to claim now that you are somehow non committal on the fate of our economy, when the record shows that you have spent much of the last year being anything but non committal on issues related to this debate. Are the advancing years starting to take a heavy toll on your mental faculties I wonder? On the plus side, however incomprehensible your post was at least immaculately spelt ...

 

I see that you go on to attempt to underplay the true significance of the Pound's fall by stating that our currency was overvalued before the referendum in your opinion. There is very little reason to believe that claim in reality - in general market forces decide what a currency is truly worth - and I must say this would sound more convincing coming from you now had you said this BEFORE the referendum outcome. But I don't recall you claiming that - probably because you were too busy telling anyone who would listen to you that there would be NO possible averse consequences of this nation voting your way. Such a possibility is just incompatible with your world view is it not?

 

Please explain why you feel that my repeating on here official OBR inflation and growth forecasts endangers anything as this is something of a mystery?

 

As for my prediction that this nation will become a poorer one directly or indirectly as a result of the referendum decision, I suppose we will indeed just have to wait and see for the final proof of that - although there seems little reason to doubt this at this time. In the meantime, and on a personal note only you understand, I can confirm to you now that I am already distinctly worse off financially due to the referendum. The post referendum BoE's decision to reduce in interest rates, a move obviously brought about as a consequence of the Stirling crisis, cost me money when my bank decided to half its savings rate as a result. The rise in petrol prices that can be (partially) attributed to the rise in UK inflation the currency crisis brought about has also taken a small, but nevertheless noticeable, toll.

 

These effects are just the proverbial 'first sparrow of spring' I'm afraid because the real pain is yet to come for many millions of your fellow citizens - not that you care of course.

 

Your response is all over the place, as usual. but it is fun trying to disentangle it.

 

Show me where I said previously that I was non-committal about the fate of our economy. I have expressed the opinion in the past that I believe that after a short dip, the economy would be stronger in the future once we had left the EU and arranged some trade deals with the main developing countries of the World. This is my optimistic view countering your pessimistic one. What is difficult to comprehend there?

 

Show me where I said that there would be "no adverse consequences" of us leaving the EU. The devaluation of the pound was predicted to be a consequence and I don't recall specifically claiming that it wouldn't fall. A bit economically naive of you to challenge that it was overvalued before the referendum. Do some reading on it. Here is just one link that might assist you and many other economists shared that view.

 

https://fullfact.org/economy/exchange-rates-and-imf/

 

The reference to endangering anything is derived from your "There is no reason in either fact or logic to believe such an dangerous assumption" I'm afraid that your comprehension comes up short once more, although your spelling is fine apart from your inability to spell Brexit.

 

No doubt we should all take note that because your savings rate decreased because of the fall in interest rates, that is indicative that we will all be poorer as a result. The decision to reduce interest rates has been questioned by some economists, but on a personal note only, you understand, I still have some outstanding mortgage, so my payments have reduced. Petrol prices are also affected by artificial controls on supply and demand by stock-piling and they are nevertheless at a considerably lower level than they were some time before the referendum.

[Johnny Bognor]

Afternoon Baldrick

 

What does this characteristic piece of gobbledygook "the IMF stated in July, that despite the fall after the referendum, it's STILL overvalued" mean? How can something be STILL overvalued based on a statement that is 6 months old?

 

Needless to say the consensus is that the £ is now significantly undervalued.

 

By the way, I didn't hear back after your Monnet meltdown. I did some digging and found the paper your pal Ottaviano wrote as a fellow "Integration, Agglomeration and the Political Economics of Factor Mobility", avidly looking forward to some juicy propaganda.

 

Alas I was disappointed. The paper analyses the geographical inequalities and disparities that have emerged with the creation of the Single Market. In particular, it explores the circumstances under which EU regional policy might have a role to play in addressing them. The answer: it depends. In some cases when transport costs are low or high, it should do nothing from an efficiency-perspective.

 

For those cases where policy intervention is justified on both efficiency and equity grounds, it assesses whether the actual mechanics of EU policymaking are capable of delivering 'good' outcomes. Again, the answer is ambiguous: there have been some useful institutional innovations in this direction but the effectiveness of the Commission and other institutions also have structural weaknesses, due in part to the democratic deficit that prevents effective information-gathering and feedback.

 

That's about it as one would expect from research. Not quite Eye of Providence stuff but maybe next time pal...

 

Afternoon me old pedigree chum...

 

OK, slight error on my part and it will teach me not to post in haste. I 'should' have said that despite the immediate fall following the referendum, the IMF believed that sterling was still overvalued... at that time. But to pretend that the £ was not overvalued pre-referendum is beyond the realms of idiocy. I know you don't disagree with that.

 

The consensus may be that the £ is NOW undervalued, but no-one thought this was the case 8 months ago. Again, I know you don't disagree with that.

 

As for research, there will always be a suspicion, especially when it comes to institutions who are benefiting from the EU. The LSE, who are a Jean Monnet centre of excellence, receive EU funding. This in isolation doesn't present a problem, but when there is an EU agenda to subvert and influence the peoples of Europe, through the teaching profession, then I personally take issue with it.

 

Jean Monnet professors must devote their time exclusively to teaching or researching "European integration" and must therefore "renounce" all responsibility for teaching "non-European integration" issues. Teaching activities are "co-financed" for a maxi-mum period of three years, in exchange for a commitment to maintain a full-time course on European integration for at least seven years. For that, a ceiling is set at a total of €30,000, spread over a three year period.

 

Out of interest, are you suggesting that the EU are NOT exerting undue influence on the young through education?

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

Your response is all over the place, as usual. but it is fun trying to disentangle it.

 

Show me where I said previously that I was non-committal about the fate of our economy. I have expressed the opinion in the past that I believe that after a short dip, the economy would be stronger in the future once we had left the EU and arranged some trade deals with the main developing countries of the World. This is my optimistic view countering your pessimistic one. What is difficult to comprehend there?

 

Show me where I said that there would be "no adverse consequences" of us leaving the EU. The devaluation of the pound was predicted to be a consequence and I don't recall specifically claiming that it wouldn't fall. A bit economically naive of you to challenge that it was overvalued before the referendum. Do some reading on it. Here is just one link that might assist you and many other economists shared that view.

 

https://fullfact.org/economy/exchange-rates-and-imf/

 

The reference to endangering anything is derived from your "There is no reason in either fact or logic to believe such an dangerous assumption" I'm afraid that your comprehension comes up short once more, although your spelling is fine apart from your inability to spell Brexit.

 

No doubt we should all take note that because your savings rate decreased because of the fall in interest rates, that is indicative that we will all be poorer as a result. The decision to reduce interest rates has been questioned by some economists, but on a personal note only, you understand, I still have some outstanding mortgage, so my payments have reduced. Petrol prices are also affected by artificial controls on supply and demand by stock-piling and they are nevertheless at a considerably lower level than they were some time before the referendum.

 

I'm pleased to see you concede that predicting the Sterling crisis is very much a hindsight type, post-referendum, affair as far as you are concerned. On a equally positive note, I guess the entire forum is in awe of your unmatched spelling ability - that little 'Flak' faux pas the other day aside of course. As for your oh-so-comfortable financial situation, this too has become the stuff of legend on here. Indeed, the degree of insulation this veritable 'pile of cash' provides you from all the little everyday problems many of your less fortunate citizens will experience - especially our young of course - explains much I think. Perhaps your shameless - I'm alright jack - attitude will also be of some comfort to many in the trying times to come.

 

Less impressive however is your poor grasp of economics or your apparent inability to comprehend the key difference there is between what is pessimism, and what is realism. Neither is this bizarre attempt now to deny the prolonged campaign you waged on here last year attempting to rebuke almost EVERY pro EU news story that came along during the referendum campaign at all plausible. There are I suspect less ideologically committed Taliban suicide bombers out there than you are when it comes to to this matter. Indeed, the last time I saw an attempt to 'rewrite history' quite this brazen was in the aftermath of Stalin's death!

 

I really don't mind people standing up for what they believe in - I do - but resorting to obvious lies really won't do I'm afraid.

[Wes Tender]

I'm pleased to see you concede that predicting the Sterling crisis is very much a hindsight type, post-referendum, affair as far as you are concerned. On a equally positive note, I guess the entire forum is in awe of your unmatched spelling ability - that little 'Flak' faux pas the other day aside of course. As for your oh-so-comfortable financial situation, this too has become the stuff of legend on here. Indeed, the degree of insulation this veritable 'pile of cash' provides you from all the little everyday problems many of your less fortunate citizens will experience - especially our young of course - explains much I think. Perhaps your shameless - I'm alright jack - attitude will also be of some comfort to many in the trying times to come.

 

Less impressive however is your poor grasp of economics or your apparent inability to comprehend the key difference there is between what is pessimism, and what is realism. Neither is this bizarre attempt now to deny the prolonged campaign you waged on here last year attempting to rebuke almost EVERY pro EU news story that came along during the referendum campaign at all plausible. There are I suspect less ideologically committed Taliban suicide bombers out there than you are when it comes to to this matter. Indeed, the last time I saw an attempt to 'rewrite history' quite this brazen was in the aftermath of Stalin's death!

 

I really don't mind people standing up for what they believe in - I do - but resorting to obvious lies really won't do I'm afraid.

 

I see that you haven't managed to point to where I said that sterling wouldn't fall, or where I said that I was non-committal about the fate of the economy. Whilst we're discussing what you have omitted to respond to, you haven't offered your opinion as to what level of inflation constituted it having "much further to go".

 

Regarding your assertion that I have an alright Jack attitude especially towards the young apparently, engage your brain for a minute and realise what a ridiculous assertion that is when you have based it on my mention that my mortgage has gone down following the reduction in the Bank Rate. You are earning less on your savings, I am paying less on my mortgage, but how are the young or the less fortunate affected? Are they more inclined to have savings like you, or to owe money like me? I would say the latter, wouldn't you? Therefore a drop in interest rates is helpful to them, is it not?

 

I have to laugh at your accusation that I have a poor grasp of economics given the couple of howlers that you have produced during the past couple of days, like your assertion that the pound was not overvalued before the referendum. The difference between pessimism and realism? The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails. A bit early to adjust the sails at the moment before Article 50, surely?

 

Any reports I rebuked during the referendum campaign, I did so on the basis that they were pure speculation, possibly driven by vested interests, or based on improper calculations, like the Treasury report claiming that every family would be worse off by £4300 p.a. by 2030. I realise that as events during the past 6 months have proven that the majority of those so-called experts' predictions have been unfounded, I would say that my cynicism was largely justified. I can see though how it leaves you a little red-faced, having gleefully stood by them as purveyors of the gospel truth.

 

I am developing a very thick skin against these accusations of yours that I don't care for the young, that I don't care for the future prosperity of the Country, that I am a little Englander, I'm a liar, etc. I refute all of them, but if it helps you to feel good about yourself, go ahead. If you would rather indulge in that sort of mud-slinging than attempting to argue the case, it doesn't bother me. I feel rather sorry for you that you feel the need to resort to those measures and of course it considerably weakens your position.

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

My dear Lesley - please explain to the forum why exactly you seek my personal opinion on where our inflation rate is heading so avidly when it is but the work of a moment to check for yourself the official OBR estimate? Google is your friend in this type of situation. I'm sure many on here will recall just how dismissive you were/are of official forecasting data, but surely the forecasts of a respectable body such as the OBR, an office staffed by some of the best economists this nation has to offer, are rather more worthwhile than that of a layman you happen to distrust? But I am nevertheless flattered that you value my opinion so very highly.

 

But if basic economic theory is one of those subjects you seem to struggle with - put simply - the theory goes that whenever any traded currency is significantly devalued (as did happen to Sterling post the referendum outcome of course) then the cost of said nation's imports must inevitably rise. This has the knock-on effect of increasing inflation - especially in a island economy that must import as much as we do. Happy to help.

 

You then go on to allege that that the "majority" of pre referendum forecasts have been proven to be incorrect - the forum will note without either bothering to prove this assertion of yours or even being sufficiently honest to acknowledge that Sterling has indeed crashed and inflation has started to rise - very much as predicted by more or less all the big forecasting organisations. This is the second time I have had to remind you of this today - perhaps these truths will take hold on the second attempt one hopes. You also imply that those bodies making these forecast are corrupt for some reason - a very serious allegation that you should either prove or withdraw. Again, as the referendum campaign is history now why any of these organisations would continue to imperil their reputation, when obviously there is now no referendum in the offing to influence, is one of your little mysteries that do arise whenever you decide to converse with me. Not for the first time on here you really are not making much sense.

 

Finally, as for the 'thick skin' you feel developing over your aged body, I fear very much that based that on today's evidence this chronic condition is starting to spread to your skull. See a doctor old boy.

[Batman]

UK will be 1st in the queue for trade deal with US

[Lord Duckhunter]

You don't think that your depicting those who disagree with you as "remoaners" is itself quite childish?

 

Not for the ones who are still moaning about the vote it isn't , it's rather apt.

 

Remainiacs is my favourite . Perfectly describes Clarke, Cleggy, Blair ,Ashdown and the rest of the extremists who can see no wrong with this doomed political project . A political project they tried to wrap up in economic terms and therefore cost a generation of young people across Europe jobs and prosperity.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[hypochondriac]

UK will be 1st in the queue for trade deal with US

Hopefully everyone can agree that that is excellent news.

[so22saint]

Hopefully everyone can agree that that is excellent news.

 

If it's true (and I'm basing this on it being released by a massive liar from talking to some massive liars) then agree - it is *excellent* news and shows that maybe it won't all be a massive cluster****

[Wes Tender]

My dear Lesley - please explain to the forum why exactly you seek my personal opinion on where our inflation rate is heading so avidly when it is but the work of a moment to check for yourself the official OBR estimate? Google is your friend in this type of situation. I'm sure many on here will recall just how dismissive you were/are of official forecasting data, but surely the forecasts of a respectable body such as the OBR, an office staffed by some of the best economists this nation has to offer, are rather more worthwhile than that of a layman you happen to distrust? But I am nevertheless flattered that you value my opinion so very highly.

 

But if basic economic theory is one of those subjects you seem to struggle with - put simply - the theory goes that whenever any traded currency is significantly devalued (as did happen to Sterling post the referendum outcome of course) then the cost of said nation's imports must inevitably rise. This has the knock-on effect of increasing inflation - especially in a island economy that must import as much as we do. Happy to help.

 

You then go on to allege that that the "majority" of pre referendum forecasts have been proven to be incorrect - the forum will note without either bothering to prove this assertion of yours or even being sufficiently honest to acknowledge that Sterling has indeed crashed and inflation has started to rise - very much as predicted by more or less all the big forecasting organisations. This is the second time I have had to remind you of this today - perhaps these truths will take hold on the second attempt one hopes. You also imply that those bodies making these forecast are corrupt for some reason - a very serious allegation that you should either prove or withdraw. Again, as the referendum campaign is history now why any of these organisations would continue to imperil their reputation, when obviously there is now no referendum in the offing to influence, is one of your little mysteries that do arise whenever you decide to converse with me. Not for the first time on here you really are not making much sense.

 

Finally, as for the 'thick skin' you feel developing over your aged body, I fear very much that based that on today's evidence this chronic condition is starting to spread to your skull. See a doctor old boy.

 

Charles, old chap, I'm disappointed that you have chickened out of providing your own personal view of how high inflation would have to rise to justify your forecast that it had "much further to go." By all means make sweeping generalised statements of doom and gloom if you can justify them, but don't cop out by inviting me to Google dire inflation forecasts from the OBR "estimate." You made the statement, you provide the relevant information link.

 

I find your naivety really quite sweet when it comes to believing unquestioningly the forecasts and predictions of the various economists' dire warnings of the consequences of our vote to leave the EU, when most of them didn't come to pass. I have never questioned that the pound would fall, as it was over-valued, but of course there are up-sides to that when it comes to our exports and tourist industries. That inflation has risen slightly was not a surprise either. But regarding your refusal to acknowledge that most of the other dire warnings have not come to pass, is verging on bone-headed stubbornness. You claim that I have not bothered to substantiate that point, but Google is your friend and it was easy enough to find plenty. Just for variety, here are two links to articles from the Guardian and the Conservatives

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/aug/20/brexit-eu-referendum-economy-project-fear

http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/09/three-months-on-project-fears-predictions-of-instant-economic-disaster-have-been-disproved.html

 

Feel free to challenge anything that they say.

 

As per your usual MO, you make some statement misrepresenting what I said and then chiding me for it. I have asked you to show me where I had made various statements in previous posts that you have been unable to requote as proof, and here you are doing it again. Show me where I have said that the bodies making those dire economic forecasts are corrupt? Either prove it or apologise.

 

You say that these economic bodies have no justification to imperil their reputations when there is no referendum in the offing to influence. Is this an admission that you accept the possibility that the referendum did in fact influence their forecasts towards the bleakest picture they painted?

[colehillsaint]

I'm reading "Sapiens-A Brief History of Human Kind", which was published 6 years ago, (well before Brexit), and I would commend it to anyone. It points out that since our species took control 70,000 years ago, through a cognitive ability to cooperate in larger groups than our Homo Erectus and Neanderthal competition, we have progressively coalesced into fewer and fewer, larger and larger societies and cultures. Where empires have collapsed, they have generally left more widespread cultures, and less nations than they absorbed to form. The EU was formed as an empire, due to this imperative, uniquely pretty much without military conquest, genocide or horrific suffering. If that is our natural direction, because humanity can't organise itself, and an ever more complicated world, in any other way, l for one hope the next attempt, whenever it comes, is equally bloodless!!

Edited 10 January, 2017 by colehillsaint

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

Charles, old chap, I'm disappointed that you have chickened out of providing your own personal view of how high inflation would have to rise to justify your forecast that it had "much further to go." By all means make sweeping generalised statements of doom and gloom if you can justify them, but don't cop out by inviting me to Google dire inflation forecasts from the OBR "estimate." You made the statement, you provide the relevant information link.

 

I find your naivety really quite sweet when it comes to believing unquestioningly the forecasts and predictions of the various economists' dire warnings of the consequences of our vote to leave the EU, when most of them didn't come to pass. I have never questioned that the pound would fall, as it was over-valued, but of course there are up-sides to that when it comes to our exports and tourist industries. That inflation has risen slightly was not a surprise either. But regarding your refusal to acknowledge that most of the other dire warnings have not come to pass, is verging on bone-headed stubbornness. You claim that I have not bothered to substantiate that point, but Google is your friend and it was easy enough to find plenty. Just for variety, here are two links to articles from the Guardian and the Conservatives

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/aug/20/brexit-eu-referendum-economy-project-fear

http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/09/three-months-on-project-fears-predictions-of-instant-economic-disaster-have-been-disproved.html

 

Feel free to challenge anything that they say.

 

As per your usual MO, you make some statement misrepresenting what I said and then chiding me for it. I have asked you to show me where I had made various statements in previous posts that you have been unable to requote as proof, and here you are doing it again. Show me where I have said that the bodies making those dire economic forecasts are corrupt? Either prove it or apologise.

 

You say that these economic bodies have no justification to imperil their reputations when there is no referendum in the offing to influence. Is this an admission that you accept the possibility that the referendum did in fact influence their forecasts towards the bleakest picture they painted?

 

Well my old pedigree chum. If you really doubt that inflation is set to rise further, for some inexplicable reason, then why don't you explain why that should be? If you are either too lazy (or perhaps too incompetent) to do your own research then I am quite prepared to act on your behalf in this matter. However, as it is my practice to only undertake work in return for payment I will naturally require that suitable compensation be arranged by you beforehand of course. As a (sometimes) Tory voter I expect that you will instinctively approve of my enterprising approach here. Should you be unprepared to reimburse me for my time then by all means do feel free to make your own case - I can hardly wait to see your in-depth inflation analysis being the great expert on the subject that you are ...

 

Yesterday you saw fit to describe most of the leading economic forecasting organisations as both incompetent and corrupt. Serious allegations I think that the forum will note you have failed to prove to any substantive degree. This represents disreputable behaviour on your part old chap. While on this subject I must also say here that your 'outraged virgin' routine is becoming rather hackneyed now. For example, when you write (post #2989) that the forecasts you disapprove of so were quote: "driven by vested interests" then how on earth is anyone else supposed to interpret that comment but as some kind of allegation of corruption or malpractice? Please answer this specific point without your usual recourse to evasion or more weasel words.

 

As I told you TWICE yesterday, the key pre-referendum forecast has come true - the record shows that we did indeed suffer a major Sterling crisis and inflation has already started to rise as a consequence of that. I intend to repeat this until such time as you understand it. For the record, Sterling also fell again yesterday as the market interpreted a speech the PM made as a indication that your 'hard Bretix' option is set to come about. That's not the sinister 'project fear' casting its dark shadow over the nation, but rather hard-headed money men giving us all their verdict on this nation's economic prospects.

 

If only you were capable of laying down the Daily Mail for once and picking up something better then you might begin to comprehend that other pre-referendum warnings are rapidly becoming realities. For example, the Times yesterday reported that HALF the financial institutions that warned they would have to move jobs abroad if we left the Single Market have either done so already, or are in the process to doing so at this time. The other half will very probably follow this example in the coming months and years ahead I suspect. Those lost jobs in our important financial services sector are highly paid and highly skilled positions that are now being exported aboard to France or Germany I suspect. Explain how is that in our national interest? Did you not see what Nicola Sturgeon had to say about a second Scottish Independence referendum at the weekend - is there any reason to doubt her? Not that the potential break-up of the UK is a matter that you are much "bothered" about of course ...

 

So there is some reason to believe then that the much derided 'project fear' may well have been much closer to the mark than you like to think.

[Johnny Bognor]

Well my old pedigree chum ©.

 

"my old pedigree chum"© is my line, used specifically in response to references to "Pal" ©

 

Come up with your own dog food brand... "Winnalot" has not been referenced yet...

[Wes Tender]

Well my old pedigree chum. If you really doubt that inflation is set to rise further, for some inexplicable reason, then why don't you explain why that should be? If you are either too lazy (or perhaps too incompetent) to do your own research then I am quite prepared to act on your behalf in this matter. However, as it is my practice to only undertake work in return for payment I will naturally require that suitable compensation be arranged by you beforehand of course. As a (sometimes) Tory voter I expect that you will instinctively approve of my enterprising approach here. Should you be unprepared to reimburse me for my time then by all means do feel free to make your own case - I can hardly wait to see your in-depth inflation analysis being the great expert on the subject that you are ...

 

Yesterday you saw fit to describe most of the leading economic forecasting organisations as both incompetent and corrupt. Serious allegations I think that the forum will note you have failed to prove to any substantive degree. This represents disreputable behaviour on your part old chap. While on this subject I must also say here that your 'outraged virgin' routine is becoming rather hackneyed now. For example, when you write (post #2989) that the forecasts you disapprove of so were quote: "driven by vested interests" then how on earth is anyone else supposed to interpret that comment but as some kind of allegation of corruption or malpractice? Please answer this specific point without your usual recourse to evasion or more weasel words.

 

As I told you TWICE yesterday, the key pre-referendum forecast has come true - the record shows that we did indeed suffer a major Sterling crisis and inflation has already started to rise as a consequence of that. I intend to repeat this until such time as you understand it. For the record, Sterling also fell again yesterday as the market interpreted a speech the PM made as a indication that your 'hard Bretix' option is set to come about. That's not the sinister 'project fear' casting its dark shadow over the nation, but rather hard-headed money men giving us all their verdict on this nation's economic prospects.

 

If only you were capable of laying down the Daily Mail for once and picking up something better then you might begin to comprehend that other pre-referendum warnings are rapidly becoming realities. For example, the Times yesterday reported that HALF the financial institutions that warned they would have to move jobs abroad if we left the Single Market have either done so already, or are in the process to doing so at this time. The other half will very probably follow this example in the coming months and years ahead I suspect. Those lost jobs in our important financial services sector are highly paid and highly skilled positions that are now being exported aboard to France or Germany I suspect. Explain how is that in our national interest? Did you not see what Nicola Sturgeon had to say about a second Scottish Independence referendum at the weekend - is there any reason to doubt her? Not that the potential break-up of the UK is a matter that you are much "bothered" about of course ...

 

So there is some reason to believe then that the much derided 'project fear' may well have been much closer to the mark than you like to think.

 

Charles, instead of me trying to argue things that don't penetrate your skull, or which you avoid answering, or which you twist, I grow weary of such a pointless exercise.

 

But I realise from the way that you respond with your increasing use of petty insults, the struggle you appear to have cobbling together a defence of the mistaken forecasts of the merchants of project fear, that post-referendum you are suffering some considerable mental strife. Let us call it PRSD perhaps, (Post Referendum Stress Disorder).

 

Therefore I propose to lift your spirits, to purge you if I can of all that harmful negativity over some dire things that might not come to pass, by posting some uplifting positive news.

 

The stuff in those links doesn't seem to have done the trick and your sour tones above were posted after the great news that we will be first in line for a trade deal with the USA, so that hasn't cheered you either.

 

How about this as something to look forward to optimistically?

 

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/708e119fa74cd33e6a28f949a/files/FEG_Commonwealth_Trade_web.pdf

[Wes Tender]

"my old pedigree chum"© is my line, used specifically in response to references to "Pal" ©

 

Come up with your own dog food brand... "Winnalot" has not been referenced yet...

 

Or more appropriately Losealot for Charles

[Johnny Bognor]

Or more appropriately Losealot for Charles

Yes I can't see him referring to you as winalot lol

[benjii]

****alot

[John B]

Hopefully everyone can agree that that is excellent news.

 

I have no idea if it is good news because do we know if the USA will give us a better deal than they have with the EU which is a much bigger market

 

Only time will tell

[Johnny Bognor]

I have no idea if it is good news because do we know if the USA will give us a better deal than they have with the EU which is a much bigger market

 

Only time will tell

 

Out of interest, can you remind me what deal the US have with the EU???

[hypochondriac]

I have no idea if it is good news because do we know if the USA will give us a better deal than they have with the EU which is a much bigger market

 

Only time will tell

They don't have a deal with the EU.

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

Charles, instead of me trying to argue things that don't penetrate your skull, or which you avoid answering, or which you twist, I grow weary of such a pointless exercise.

 

But I realise from the way that you respond with your increasing use of petty insults, the struggle you appear to have cobbling together a defence of the mistaken forecasts of the merchants of project fear, that post-referendum you are suffering some considerable mental strife. Let us call it PRSD perhaps, (Post Referendum Stress Disorder).

 

Therefore I propose to lift your spirits, to purge you if I can of all that harmful negativity over some dire things that might not come to pass, by posting some uplifting positive news.

 

The stuff in those links doesn't seem to have done the trick and your sour tones above were posted after the great news that we will be first in line for a trade deal with the USA, so that hasn't cheered you either.

 

How about this as something to look forward to optimistically?

 

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/708e119fa74cd33e6a28f949a/files/FEG_Commonwealth_Trade_web.pdf

 

If this kind of stuff is supposed to be painful to me then I must inform you I've been more grievously hurt in the past by an enraged kitten. The forum will also note with some interest I suspect that you have elected to climb down from your 'high horse' in regard to that little corruption business that had twisted your underwear so painfully. Never mind Les, they do say that Jesus loves a sinner who repents ...

[Wes Tender]

If this kind of stuff is supposed to be painful to me then I must inform you I've been more grievously hurt in the past by an enraged kitten. The forum will also note with some interest I suspect that you have elected to climb down from your 'high horse' in regard to that little corruption business that had twisted your underwear so painfully. Never mind Les, they do say that Jesus loves a sinner who repents ...

 

3.28 am? Is the Brexit PRSD losing you sleep? Methinks you doth protest too much. What corruption business are you waffling on about? What's Jesus got to do with it? I think that you are seriously losing the plot, dear boy.

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

3.28 am? Is the Brexit PRSD losing you sleep? Methinks you doth protest too much. What corruption business are you waffling on about? What's Jesus got to do with it? I think that you are seriously losing the plot, dear boy.

 

Well I didn't know you cared Les. But as this appears to interest you for some reason I frequently start work at 4am, so I'm often to be found awake before that time - I find it preferable to wake up prior to arriving at work. Congratulations by the way on your first ever *joke* - Noel Coward himself would have been proud to have devised such a splendid example of dry wit at its best

[Wes Tender]

CEC - here's your daily dose of encouraging news to lighten your PRSD mood

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/11/eu-has-lose-hard-brexit-uk-mark-carney-says/

 

It now seems that Carney, being a dour w/banker, felt a need to exaggerate the repercussions of our voting to leave the EU in order to cover a worst case scenario, I realise that you put much store in the expertise of Carney, so this more rational viewpoint from him should enable you to sleep better (at whatever time of the day you take your sleep)

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

CEC - here's your daily dose of encouraging news to lighten your PRSD mood

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/11/eu-has-lose-hard-brexit-uk-mark-carney-says/

 

It now seems that Carney, being a dour w/banker, felt a need to exaggerate the repercussions of our voting to leave the EU in order to cover a worst case scenario, I realise that you put much store in the expertise of Carney, so this more rational viewpoint from him should enable you to sleep better (at whatever time of the day you take your sleep)

 

No gags today Les? How disappointing

 

I sleep just fine thank you, although obviously evening posting is a thing of the past now. As for drawing conclusions about our long term economic future - two years before we have even left EU and its huge Single Market - I would have thought the dangers of this short termism should be apparent to all. This situation is akin to receiving a puppy as a Christmas present - fun at the time perhaps but you really should be thinking about the long term implications of dog ownership too.

 

This 'pup' the British people were sold six months ago sure has a lot of growing still to do ...

[Wes Tender]

No gags today Les? How disappointing

 

I sleep just fine thank you, although obviously evening posting is a thing of the past now. As for drawing conclusions about our long term economic future - two years before we have even left EU and its huge Single Market - I would have thought the dangers of this short termism should be apparent to all. This situation is akin to receiving a puppy as a Christmas present - fun at the time perhaps but you really should be thinking about the long term implications of dog ownership too.

 

This 'pup' the British people were sold six months ago sure has a lot of growing still to do ...

 

You never cease to make me smile, urging patience until we gain a clearer idea of how things will pan out once we have triggered Article 50, when ironically you hung on Carney's every word even before the referendum.

 

If your PRSD requires a joke to sooth it, and since you are talking dogs, here is a European related dog joke, just for you.

 

An Alsatian went to a telegram office and wrote: "Woof. Woof. Woof. Woof. Woof. Woof. Woof. Woof. Woof."

The clerk examined the paper and told the dog: "There are only nine words here. You could send another 'Woof' for the same price."

"But," the dog replied, "that would make no sense at all."

 

In the same way that you are often barking up the wrong tree.

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

You never cease to make me smile, urging patience until we gain a clearer idea of how things will pan out once we have triggered Article 50, when ironically you hung on Carney's every word even before the referendum.

 

If your PRSD requires a joke to sooth it, and since you are talking dogs, here is a European related dog joke, just for you.

 

An Alsatian went to a telegram office and wrote: "Woof. Woof. Woof. Woof. Woof. Woof. Woof. Woof. Woof."

The clerk examined the paper and told the dog: "There are only nine words here. You could send another 'Woof' for the same price."

"But," the dog replied, "that would make no sense at all."

 

 

You say you are capable of smiling but I doubt it somehow. But If you really do intend to lay claim to the title of this forum's leading funny man (!) then some more original material than this will be required I'm afraid. Although labelling your Googled *jokes* as jokes beforehand is probably a wise move.

[Wes Tender]

You say you are capable of smiling but I doubt it somehow. But If you really do intend to lay claim to the title of this forum's leading funny man (!) then some more original material than this will be required I'm afraid. Although labelling your Googled *jokes* as jokes beforehand is probably a wise move.

 

Did I make any claim to be the forum's leading funny man? No, I thought not. Working nights is catching up with you

 

Was it ironic you choosing "Stuffy" as your avatar, him being renowned for his lack of humour and for being away with the fairies?

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

Did I make any claim to be the forum's leading funny man? No, I thought not. Working nights is catching up with you

 

Was it ironic you choosing "Stuffy" as your avatar, him being renowned for his lack of humour and for being away with the fairies?

 

Well I suppose you have made a bit of a name for yourself on here as a serial denier. But even you can't refute that your brilliant 'Winalot' (win-a-lot) gag is at least partially responsible for the crisis the NHS is now under. At this very moment surgeons across southern England are frantically busy attempting to stitch together the sides of hundreds of forum members who literally laughed themselves into their local casualty department when they saw it.

 

Be more responsible in future.

[Guided Missile]

CEC - here's your daily dose of encouraging news to lighten your PRSD mood

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/11/eu-has-lose-hard-brexit-uk-mark-carney-says/

 

It now seems that Carney, being a dour w/banker, felt a need to exaggerate the repercussions of our voting to leave the EU in order to cover a worst case scenario, I realise that you put much store in the expertise of Carney, so this more rational viewpoint from him should enable you to sleep better (at whatever time of the day you take your sleep)

Like I said over a week ago:

 

This admission is not a minor issue, in my opinion. It is the BoE that has informed the British Government and, disgracefully, the British people, on the "consequences" of voting leave. Mark Carney should resign and return to Canada where he can spend time realising that economics and political forecasts are not sciences. More like opinion, rhetoric and gambling. Thank God the British public saw through these overpaid jokers. They didn't see the 2008 crash happening and they completely overplayed their hand over Brexit.

[Johnny Bognor]

It’s far more important I’m proved right than for Brexit to be successful, says Remain supporter

 

*August 18, 2016

 

*Written by Neil Tollfree

 

A Remain supporter has confirmed that he would feel much happier for Brexit to be a massive failure and proven*right than for Britain to become successful in a post-EU world.

 

“Well, obviously, I’d like to live in a successful country,” said Simon Williams, a Remain supporter who works in ‘media’.

 

“But not at the expense of me being proved wrong. That’s unthinkable.

 

“These are clearly very uncertain times,” he continued while sipping a frappe-mocha-latte-coo-coo-ca-chino.

 

“So I think it’s important that I, along with all remain supporters, maintain a constant state of gloom and pessimism, and meet any signs of optimism by saying something like ‘well, it’s early days, you wait until the country just falls into a big hole in the ground and everyone dies screaming, then you’ll be sorry’.

 

“Because otherwise it might mean that Brexit won’t be a disaster, and who wants to live in a world where people like me can possibly be wrong about anything.”

 

Mr Williams continued banging on interminably about racism, the older generation, and claiming to be ‘seriously looking at relocating to Ireland,’ before he realised that everyone had stopped listening so he wandered off to drink some ‘craft’ ale instead.

 

 

 

Sent from my SM-G920F using Tapatalk

[shurlock]

It’s far more important I’m proved right than for Brexit to be successful, says Remain supporter

 

*August 18, 2016

 

*Written by Neil Tollfree

 

A Remain supporter has confirmed that he would feel much happier for Brexit to be a massive failure and proven*right than for Britain to become successful in a post-EU world.

 

“Well, obviously, I’d like to live in a successful country,” said Simon Williams, a Remain supporter who works in ‘media’.

 

“But not at the expense of me being proved wrong. That’s unthinkable.

 

“These are clearly very uncertain times,” he continued while sipping a frappe-mocha-latte-coo-coo-ca-chino.

 

“So I think it’s important that I, along with all remain supporters, maintain a constant state of gloom and pessimism, and meet any signs of optimism by saying something like ‘well, it’s early days, you wait until the country just falls into a big hole in the ground and everyone dies screaming, then you’ll be sorry’.

 

“Because otherwise it might mean that Brexit won’t be a disaster, and who wants to live in a world where people like me can possibly be wrong about anything.”

 

Mr Williams continued banging on interminably about racism, the older generation, and claiming to be ‘seriously looking at relocating to Ireland,’ before he realised that everyone had stopped listening so he wandered off to drink some ‘craft’ ale instead.

 

 

 

Sent from my SM-G920F using Tapatalk

 

Some proper #bantz there baldrick.

[Johnny Bognor]

Some proper #bantz there baldrick.

Many a truer word is spoken in jest, me old pedigree chum.

 

It does remind me of a few people on this thread lolz

Edited 13 January, 2017 by Johnny Bognor

[OVER THE HILL]

It’s far more important I’m proved right than for Brexit to be successful, says Remain supporter

 

*August 18, 2016

 

*Written by Neil Tollfree

 

A Remain supporter has confirmed that he would feel much happier for Brexit to be a massive failure and proven*right than for Britain to become successful in a post-EU world.

 

“Well, obviously, I’d like to live in a successful country,” said Simon Williams, a Remain supporter who works in ‘media’.

 

“But not at the expense of me being proved wrong. That’s unthinkable.

 

“These are clearly very uncertain times,” he continued while sipping a frappe-mocha-latte-coo-coo-ca-chino.

 

“So I think it’s important that I, along with all remain supporters, maintain a constant state of gloom and pessimism, and meet any signs of optimism by saying something like ‘well, it’s early days, you wait until the country just falls into a big hole in the ground and everyone dies screaming, then you’ll be sorry’.

 

“Because otherwise it might mean that Brexit won’t be a disaster, and who wants to live in a world where people like me can possibly be wrong about anything.”

 

Mr Williams continued banging on interminably about racism, the older generation, and claiming to be ‘seriously looking at relocating to Ireland,’ before he realised that everyone had stopped listening so he wandered off to drink some ‘craft’ ale instead.

 

 

 

Sent from my SM-G920F using Tapatalk

 

It's satire

 

http://newsthump.com/2016/08/18/far-more-important-im-proved-right-than-for-brexit-to-be-successful-says-remain-supporter/

[Johnny Bognor]

It's satire

 

http://newsthump.com/2016/08/18/far-more-important-im-proved-right-than-for-brexit-to-be-successful-says-remain-supporter/

 

Yep, cut and paste job.

[Wes Tender]

Like I said over a week ago:

 

Carney's utterances were accepted without question by the Remoaners on here because of his economic "expertise". His predecessor Mervyn King who was altogether more upbeat about the economic consequences of Brexit, was casually dismissed as yesterday's man. Osborne's opinion as the Chancellor of the Exchequer at the time apparently carried more weight than Lawson's for the same reason.

 

Now both Carney and Osborne having been proved wrong about their dire warnings for the economy in the aftermath of the Referendum result, the forum Remoaner position is now that these errors of judgement don't matter, as we haven't even triggered Article 50 yet, so this is short termism. Predictions about the rise in unemployment, fall in property values, stock market crash of the FTSE 100 & 500, have all gone in the opposite direction, so now all there is to cling to is the fall in the value of the overvalued pound and the small rise in inflation caused by it. And of course, quite a lot of the blame for the fall in the value of the pound rests on the shoulders of the likes of Carney and Osborne, who have talked it down with their pessimistic forecasts. Thankfully Osborne is gone and Carney has cut short his tenure as Governor of the BoE, but we should be grateful at least that he had the humility to admit his error.

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

Before this molehill starts to rival Mt Everest in scale here be what the Governor of the BoE actually said:

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38587625

 

So the Governor states that the risks posed to the LONG TERM prospects of our economy of our leaving the EU/Single Market have not disappeared into the ether as implied and are still quote: "elevated". Those with a better understanding of the role of the Bank might also comprehend that the Governor has been in 'damage limitation' mode ever since the referendum - for obvious reasons. Furthermore, talking the prospects of our economy 'up' is also of course a important part of his job. Again someone on here seems to need reminding (again) that Sterling did indeed crash very much as predicted and inflation has risen as a result and is set to rise further.

[Guided Missile]

The story so far:

 

Are you serious? This is far worse than 2008. The fall in the world's stockmarkets on Friday was $2,000,000,000,000 . As i just said to Wes, you have no idea of the damage that you have caused.

 

It's not fear of the unknown, it's fear of a certainty.

 

The pound has plummeted against the dollar and so has the Euro, to some extent, so imports are much more expensive but selling prices have not gone down. In any case, the 20% drop in 2008 (from $1.86!) did nothing to improve exports so there's no guarantee that this fall will be of any help.

 

Please explain to me how a weak £ enhances the value of UK stocks?

 

Whether we get priority in queue jumping depends on who wins the Presidential election. Clinton isnt going to bolster the UK conservative right epitomised by Boris and Farage against her more natural allies the conservative left. Trump might, but then he isnt going to win.

 

Its a bit more complicated pal. If you've followed the primaries closely (obviously you haven't), you'll have noted that there has been hardening on both sides against free trade.

 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6e3451d6-37a7-11e6-9a05-82a9b15a8ee7.html#axzz4CmlHTiTJ

 

"Free trade will not have an ally in the White House next year"

 

Well the current Cancellor repeated only yesterday that taxes will have to rise and government spending be cut further due to our radicaly changed economic circumstances. So be patient because your wait might not be a very long one.

 

Bye, bye and I'll look forward to revisiting this topic in a year when the UK economy is flying, the EU is in the cr@pper and your teeth are still in a glass of water at night...

 

I am sure I've missed a few more pearls of wisdom from our resident political and economic experts...

[Wes Tender]

Before this molehill starts to rival Mt Everest in scale here be what the Governor of the BoE actually said:

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38587625

 

So the Governor states that the risks posed to the LONG TERM prospects of our economy of our leaving the EU/Single Market have not disappeared into the ether as implied and are still quote: "elevated". Those with a better understanding of the role of the Bank might also comprehend that the Governor has been in 'damage limitation' mode ever since the referendum - for obvious reasons. Furthermore, talking the prospects of our economy 'up' is also of course a important part of his job. Again someone on here seems to need reminding (again) that Sterling did indeed crash very much as predicted and inflation has risen as a result and is set to rise further.

 

Those with a better understand of the role of the BoE like Mervyn King?

 

https://www.ft.com/content/8c858290-cb72-11e6-864f-20dcb35cede2

 

Yes, Carney is obliged to talk the economy up and also to take remedial action to stabilise the economy as part of his job. But naturally his credibility has taken a knock because the forecasts he made about the dire consequences that would follow a vote in the referendum to leave the EU did not come to pass. Therefore his forecasts for the longer term consequences are also to be taken with a large pinch of salt, as presumably they are also exagerated to reflect the worst case scenario, coming as they do from a dour w/banker

[shurlock]

The story so far:

 

Its a bit more complicated pal. If you've followed the primaries closely (obviously you haven't), you'll have noted that there has been hardening on both sides against free trade.

 

 

 

 

I am sure I've missed a few more pearls of wisdom from our resident political and economic experts...

 

Still doing your damnest to prove you're out of your depth. Sure you haven't been dosing on all those legal highs aka fertiliser products nobody wants to buy over here? Keep an eye on things pal.

 

My point stands -alas you misunderstand it. Despite being a 'businessman', Trump is no instinctive free-trader. Far, far from it. That was true when I wrote it and it's truer today. If some thought Trump's sabre-rattling was just campaign theatre, it's clear he intends to deliver on the rhetoric. Pursuing perceived free-riders, both at home and abroad and rewriting 'unfair' trading arrangements- are big priorities.

 

Does it mean he'll have time to conduct free trade arrangements and they won't be negatively impacted by the fallout of the rest of his trade agenda? Who knows. That's why I said the situation was complicated.

 

It's also complicated because Trump is adopting a staunchly America-first position. As Wilbur Ross, Trump's pick for Commerce Secretary noted: Brexit presents a god-given opportunity to steal trade from a weakened and vulnerable UK. Alas you, as befits Brexit cheerleaders, appear to inhabit a nostalgic and naive lalaland where goodwill -rather than shrewd political and economic self-interest will dominate because the UK is well the UK.

 

Be careful what you wish for little kipper.

Edited 13 January, 2017 by shurlock

[Guided Missile]

Donald Trump ally backs free trade deal with Britain to show America's 'solidarity with our indispensable ally' - The Daily Telegraph

 

 

GOP Speaker of the House Paul Ryan CREDIT: AP PHOTO/J. SCOTT APPLEWHITE, FILE

Ben Riley-Smith, assistant political editor 26 NOVEMBER 2016 • 12:59PM:

 

 

America should do a free trade deal with Britain following Donald Trump’s US election victory, one of the most influential Republicans in Washington DC believes. Paul Ryan, speaker of the US House of Representatives, thinks such an agreement would show the UK that America remains an “indispensable ally”. Mr Ryan wants US officials to start working on an agreement right away to show “solidarity” even though no deal can be signed until Britain has left the European Union. This despite an expert from Saintsweb, "shurlock" who has a City & Guilds in Political Science and Economics stating otherwise. He was quoted as saying,

"Listen pal, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Paul Ryan knows squat. In any trade negotiations the US is out to get the UK because it is only the sixth biggest economy in the world and in a weak and vunerable position since voting to leave the EU."

It was pointed out to shurlock that the FTSE is at an all time high and Britain has the fastest growing economy in the G7. He was no longer available for comment.

[Lord Duckhunter]

The story so far:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I am sure I've missed a few more pearls of wisdom from our resident political and economic experts...

 

It is funny how wrong they keep getting it, but they're only posters on a football forum. The worrying thing is the treasury, Governor of BOE and Boy George are as bad. Makes you wonder where our economy would be now if we'd had competent people in charge the past 6 years. Carneys a busted flush, he should step down now .

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Guided Missile]

Professor Minford, a one-time adviser to Margaret Thatcher who has become one of the most prominent economists in the Brexit camp, focuses with particular zeal on the inaccuracy of the pro-EU side’s predictions that a vote to leave would hammer confidence.

Such pessimistic views were once widespread, but last week Andy Haldane, the Bank of England’s chief economist, admitted that his own prophecies of an immediate post-vote downturn were misjudged.For Prof Minford, the failure of his opponents’ forecasts is vital in the fight over how the UK leaves the EU and what sort of relationship it builds in future with the bloc.“They are hoping slower growth will turn public opinion against Brexit,” he said. “If these guys were right, we’d be seeing it by now.”

In the run-up to the referendum, economics was the Remain campaign’s favoured weapon. As Leavers appealed to British hearts with the promise of regaining sovereignty and “taking back control”, chancellor George Osborne and others countered with warnings on the hit to growth and public finances.

Detractors dubbed this “project fear” — although they worried themselves about an immediate hit to confidence in the wake of a vote to leave. Even Prof Minford himself expected growth to turn slightly negative at the end of last year

But there has been no shock to the economy since the June referendum. Bolstered by unexpectedly strong consumer spending, Britain is now on track for roughly 2 per cent growth in 2016.

 

 

 

 

Game, set and match to the Brexiteers

 

[shurlock]

Donald Trump ally backs free trade deal with Britain to show America's 'solidarity with our indispensable ally' - The Daily Telegraph

 

 

GOP Speaker of the House Paul Ryan CREDIT: AP PHOTO/J. SCOTT APPLEWHITE, FILE

Ben Riley-Smith, assistant political editor 26 NOVEMBER 2016 • 12:59PM:

 

 

 

Bless you, you did that all by yourself. Can you do a Wilbur Ross one for me pal, you know Trump's trade chief designate.

 

Of course, the only reason you're citing a post that still holds up today, doesn't support any of your claims and makes you look a bit silly and frankly quite desperate is because I'm largely sceptical of short-term calls.

 

Keep trying, little kipper

Edited 13 January, 2017 by shurlock

[shurlock]

Professor Minford, a one-time adviser to Margaret Thatcher who has become one of the most prominent economists in the Brexit camp, focuses with particular zeal on the inaccuracy of the pro-EU side’s predictions that a vote to leave would hammer confidence.

Such pessimistic views were once widespread, but last week Andy Haldane, the Bank of England’s chief economist, admitted that his own prophecies of an immediate post-vote downturn were misjudged.For Prof Minford, the failure of his opponents’ forecasts is vital in the fight over how the UK leaves the EU and what sort of relationship it builds in future with the bloc.“They are hoping slower growth will turn public opinion against Brexit,” he said. “If these guys were right, we’d be seeing it by now.”

In the run-up to the referendum, economics was the Remain campaign’s favoured weapon. As Leavers appealed to British hearts with the promise of regaining sovereignty and “taking back control”, chancellor George Osborne and others countered with warnings on the hit to growth and public finances.

Detractors dubbed this “project fear” — although they worried themselves about an immediate hit to confidence in the wake of a vote to leave. Even Prof Minford himself expected growth to turn slightly negative at the end of last year

But there has been no shock to the economy since the June referendum. Bolstered by unexpectedly strong consumer spending, Britain is now on track for roughly 2 per cent growth in 2016.

 

 

 

 

Game, set and match to the Brexiteers

 

 

So Brexiter economists were also wrong in their short-term forecasts per Minford, Lyons etc. Good to clear that up pal.

[Guided Missile]

Bless you, you did that all by yourself. Can you do a Wilbur Ross one for me pal, you know Trump's trade chief designate.

You've got the City & Guilds, pal. Find a Wilbur Ross quote about Brexit, AFTER Trump won the election and he was given his orders, although you probably think he make the final decisions rather than the elected politicians like Paul Ryan voting for them in Congress and the Senate, where republicans like Ryan hold a majority. Face it pal, you're on the run and getting more embarrassing each time you troll....

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

If we are really going to sit in hasty judgement on the Governor of the Bank of England then it is only fair I think that we take a look a what he actually said and then compare that to the record. Statement from Governor of the Bank of England on behalf of the BoE's 'Monetary Policy Committee' issued in May 2016 shortly before the referendum:

 

"A vote to leave the EU could materially alter the outlook for output and inflation ... which could lead to a materially lower path for growth and notably higher path for inflation" - Mark Carney.

 

 

• Inflation.

Since the referendum the official UK inflation rate (the CPI) has risen from a low of 0.6% in the second quarter to a high of 1.4% in Q4. Furthermore, the Bank now forecasts that inflation will rise to 2.7% this year.

 

• Growth.

The ONS calculates that - against expectations - GDP growth remanded steady in the second half of 2016 following the referendum. It is a matter of record that for 2017 the independent OBR (Office of Budget Responsibly) has reduced its UK growth forecast from 2.2% down to 1.4% - this a direct consequence of Brexit. For 2018 the official UK forecast growth rate has reduced from a healthy 2.2% down to 1.7%.

 

• Sterling

The UKP suffered a massive 13.24% devaluation against the US Dollar immediately after the referendum - reaching a 31 year low - and has shown little signs of any sustained recovery ever since. This too is obviously a direct consequence of the referendum outcome when you comprehend the timing of this crash.

 

• Borrowing

Before the referendum the OBR had predicted that in 2019/20 the UK would enjoy a budget SURPLUS of some £10bn. Post referendum the OBR now forecasts that a this nation will run a budget DEFICIT of £21.9bn in that financial year. Overall government borrowing is expected to increase by £122bn in FY2021/22 - half of this huge sum is attributed by the OBR to the economic consequences of Brexit

 

 

So there you go then - all of the above is easily checkable should it be questioned. Far from being grossly mistaken the record shows that our currency has indeed become devalued. It is also a matter of indisputable fact that our inflation rate has already risen significantly and is forecast to rise further as the increased costs of our imports feed-through the system - much as Carney predicted in fact. Our growth rate may (thankfully) be steady for now, but growth is indeed expected to fall in the months and years ahead alas. It may even be that far from slating Mark Carney some on here should be thanking him for his swift actions that arguably prevented what is a pretty bad situation becoming a even worse one perhaps. Although I expect they lack the grace to do that.

 

Instead all I'm really expecting is more 'forecasts are worthless' type of stuff from the usual suspects.

Edited 13 January, 2017 by CHAPEL END CHARLIE

[trousers]