Brexit - Post Match Reaction

[solentstars]

Other than 'Brexit means Brexit', what exactly is 'our hand' likely to be ? The UK voted to leave the EU, and the EEA option seems to be unacceptable due to the links to freedom of movement, so it wouldn't need the best brains on the EU side to work out our 'worst case acceptable position'.

Any idea what the EU's 'hand' might be, are they likely to show it in advance ?

i agree the american business experts who invest in the uk regularly say on bloomberg business channel and nbc that we have a weak negotioning hand and the europeons know it and the best we can hope for is that they go easy on us,has they hold all the cards.the dreamers on here who seem to think we are gone to become some world powerhouse on our own are living in la la land,all i can see without a good deal,the only way we will survive is becoming a low wage ecnomey with little regulation and protection for working people making lots of cash for the likes of rupert murdocks and his fellow bedfellows and no doubt privitise everything from the nhs onwards for there own gains.

[buctootim]

So we're supposed to believe that some union johnny relates verbatim to the Guardian what the senior Civil Servants think and then to believe further that they have not in turn put their usual lefty spin on it?

 

Do all of the members of that Senior Civil Servants union think the same, or only some of them? What percentage, or only those who voiced an opinion to Penpusherman?

 

 

He is the head of a union which 19,000 senior civil servants pay to represent their views. If they didn't like his work presumably they wouldn't be members? I'd imagine his views chime not with everybody but with the majority feedback he is getting. Clearly however you believe you know better than him what they think, probably better than the civil servants themselves.

[hutch]

Baldrick - you do realise that pay rises in the civil service have been capped at 1% a year.

So, about that pay freeze you were telling us about......

[Batman]

unlike a union man playing for more cash.

[Johnny Bognor]

So, about that pay freeze you were telling us about......

Well, as he can't get them a rise, he's got to do something to justify his 6 figure salary.. Might as well have a pop at the government and make things up about what his members are saying...

 

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[aintforever]

Union moaning about having to work a bit harder shocker.

[Kingsland Codger]

One of the more disappointing features of the debate in the run up to the referendum was the confusion, obfuscation, bewildering promises and the like employed by both sides. Whether it was George Osborne and his fearful predictions or, perhaps more famously, the Leave campaign and the £350million a week to the NHS - the electorate was poorly served.

 

Some forum posters might like to hear a discussion on the concept of veracity and whether we are living in a post-truth world that was broadcast on BBC Radio 4 this morning. It is about 45 minutes in length so settle down with a cuppa and take the phone off the hook and don't be put off by the colour of the presenter's hair.

 

The New World - Nothing But The Truth

[aintforever]

Post truth - what a load of ******. Politicians have always lied, egagerated and twisted facts and statistics to suit their agenda, they have done this all my life and I'm pretty sure they did it before I was around.

 

The disparity we have now is that virtually all of our politicians are trying to implement something which is the polar opposite to what they think is the right thing to do. We need to have a general election with people standing with a manefesto they believe in, then let the public decide who and how we should leave the EU.

 

The crux of the problem is that, above all, all our MPs care about is their own jobs. They won't call a GE and stand for remain because they fear losing their seat. Their selfishness is going to result in a right mess, they need to get the British people to put their money where their mouth is and give them the option of voting in Ukip and other Brexit MPs above what they currently have. If they genuinely cared about the country above their own interests that is what they would do.

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

By law we have fixed term Parliaments in this country now. I understand that the only circumstances that would allow that - five year - term to be reduced is either the elected government of the day losing a Confidence Vote in the House of Commons, or two thirds of all MP's agreeing to call a early election.

 

Neither eventuality looks very likely to occur at this time.

[buctootim]

I see the swamp draining is going ahead apace. What is the first action of the new Trump emboldened Republican house? To make it much much harder for them to caught in fraudulent, criminal or otherwise unethical behaviour.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-38494455

[buctootim]

One of the more disappointing features of the debate in the run up to the referendum was the confusion, obfuscation, bewildering promises and the like employed by both sides. Whether it was George Osborne and his fearful predictions or, perhaps more famously, the Leave campaign and the £350million a week to the NHS - the electorate was poorly served.

 

Some forum posters might like to hear a discussion on the concept of veracity and whether we are living in a post-truth world that was broadcast on BBC Radio 4 this morning. It is about 45 minutes in length so settle down with a cuppa and take the phone off the hook and don't be put off by the colour of the presenter's hair.

 

The New World - Nothing But The Truth

 

Good programme. Thanks for posting.

[shurlock]

So the UK's most seasoned, astute negotiator has quit. And negotiations haven't even started yet. #amateurism

[buctootim]

So the UK's most seasoned, astute negotiator has quit. And negotiations haven't even started yet. #amateurism

 

No no. Its not because he is a seasoned heavyweight in EU negotiations warning of "ill-founded arguments and muddled thinking" - its because he's a remoaner. Facts and insight on one side, moaning on the other. Only one logical choice...

[John B]

No no. Its not because he is a seasoned heavyweight in EU negotiations warning of "ill-founded arguments and muddled thinking" - its because he's a remoaner. Facts and insight on one side, moaning on the other. Only one logical choice...

 

If you've watched Question Time lately you'll know that the ordinary people love it when a Brexiteer simply says things will be brilliant in the future.

 

Scrap red tape, trade with the world, the EU is finished, Bahrain and India are waiting for us with open arms...

 

No specific details, just "This will be ****ing great - you wait and see. We'll show the Germans."

 

The real traitors are, of course, the venal Tories who go along with it in the hope of seeing off UKIP.

 

No matter how you try to paint it Brexit is a turd and always looks like one.

[adrian lord]

So the UK's most seasoned, astute negotiator has quit. And negotiations haven't even started yet. #amateurism

 

Yeah he did really well when Cameron and him went over cap In hand last spring didn't he ? Sent back with his tail between his legs having secured the square root of sweet FA. It was Rogers' abject failure in those negotiations that brought about Brexit.

 

 

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[adrian lord]

More good news:

 

http://order-order.com/2017/01/04/hat-trick-of-economic-good-news-to-kick-off-2017/

 

 

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[Johnny Bognor]

So the UK's most seasoned, astute negotiator has quit. And negotiations haven't even started yet. #amateurism

 

I think you're overplaying this, me old pedigree chum. Can you list any successful negotiations and achievements of his? I mean, any at all???

If he was as good as you suggest, Cameron would have got a deal that may have swung the referendum in favour of remain.

 

Being such a novice when it comes to the art of negotiation, I can see why you're easily impressed. Easy mistake to make, so I'll let you off for that one LOL

Edited 4 January, 2017 by Johnny Bognor

[Winnersaint]

No no. Its not because he is a seasoned heavyweight in EU negotiations warning of "ill-founded arguments and muddled thinking" - its because he's a remoaner. Facts and insight on one side, moaning on the other. Only one logical choice...

 

The level of triumphalism by those who voted for Brexit is positively infantile. Quite a few of us would like to remain, 48% of the electorate to be exact. Funny how the brexit view is the only one with facts and insight and all we do is moan. Funny old world we live in!

[shurlock]

Yeah he did really well when Cameron and him went over cap In hand last spring didn't he ? Sent back with his tail between his legs having secured the square root of sweet FA. It was Rogers' abject failure in those negotiations that brought about Brexit.

 

 

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For starters, I doubt it brought about Brexit and the UK came away with a number of concessions. If you think Cameron was going to get everything he wanted -and by all accounts, Cameron didn't sound out what was feasible and in what time frame, then you're seriously deluded. But hey it's in the brexiter DNA. The UK hasn't the leverage to call the shots; now then and not now. It may not flatter your ignorant ego but that's the truth pal.

Edited 4 January, 2017 by shurlock

[buctootim]

The level of triumphalism by those who voted for Brexit is positively infantile. Quite a few of us would like to remain, 48% of the electorate to be exact. Funny how the brexit view is the only one with facts and insight and all we do is moan. Funny old world we live in!

 

I could have phrased that better. I was ridiculing the Brexit argument that anyone who wants to stay is just a 'remoaner' - regardless of how experienced they are or how informed their position.

[adrian lord]

 

For starters, I doubt it brought about Brexit and the UK came away with a number of concessions. If you think Cameron was going to get everything he wanted, you're seriously deluded. But hey it's in the brexiter DNA. The UK hasn't the leverage to call the shots; now then and not now. It may not flatter your ignorant ego but that's the truth pal.

 

 

Ooh, touched a nerve! I'll never be your pal, pal.

 

 

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[Batman]

meanwhile, depsite BREXIT being the peoples choice (and the doom that was surely about to follow)

 

Manufacturing output hits 2.5 year high, £16.3bn of new foreign investment and FTSE all time high... Happy New Year

[hypochondriac]

 

For starters, I doubt it brought about Brexit and the UK came away with a number of concessions. If you think Cameron was going to get everything he wanted -and by all accounts, Cameron didn't sound out what was feasible and in what time frame, then you're seriously deluded. But hey it's in the brexiter DNA. The UK hasn't the leverage to call the shots; now then and not now. It may not flatter your ignorant ego but that's the truth pal.

 

Cameron's pathetic concessions were a big reason for brexit. I know speaking to other people that it was then that they realised they were being fobbed off and played for fools. It was embarrassing.

[Trader]

Yeah he did really well when Cameron and him went over cap In hand last spring didn't he ? Sent back with his tail between his legs having secured the square root of sweet FA. It was Rogers' abject failure in those negotiations that brought about Brexit

 

Never trust anyone who can't tie a decent tie knot.

 

Scuffy git.

[badgerx16]

meanwhile, depsite BREXIT being the peoples choice (and the doom that was surely about to follow)

 

Manufacturing output hits 2.5 year high, £16.3bn of new foreign investment and FTSE all time high... Happy New Year

 

As yet, nothing has changed. Come back in 2 years and see where we are.

[buctootim]

Never trust anyone who can't tie a decent tie knot.

 

Scuffy git.

 

Nothing wrong with a half windsor.

[Batman]

As yet, nothing has changed. Come back in 2 years and see where we are.

 

only a couple of months ago, we had a 'since brexit......." update from no other than yourself

 

 

but yes, better wait a few years before saying it is a success either way, right?

[aintforever]

only a couple of months ago, we had a 'since brexit......." update from no other than yourself

 

 

but yes, better wait a few years before saying it is a success either way, right?

 

You forgot the golden rule; Anything negative that has happened since the vote is because of Brexit, anything positive is not.

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

So the UK's most seasoned, astute negotiator has quit. And negotiations haven't even started yet. #amateurism

 

There is of course the argument that he was guilty of diluting what Cameron wanted to ask for. Ultimately this undermined what package Cameron could put to the people and that was what led to Brexit. Your astute and seasoned negotiator was ultimately the architect of Brexit.

 

One less of the 10,000 EU bureaucrats who are paid more than our prime minister. Hopefully we will get somebody in who will bat for Britain.

[Wes Tender]

I think you're overplaying this, me old pedigree chum. Can you list any successful negotiations and achievements of his? I mean, any at all???

If he was as good as you suggest, Cameron would have got a deal that may have swung the referendum in favour of remain.

 

Being such a novice when it comes to the art of negotiation, I can see why you're easily impressed. Easy mistake to make, so I'll let you off for that one LOL

 

Agree totally. Good riddance to him. We wouldn't want him anywhere near our negotiations post the triggering of Article 50, based on his pathetic attempt to negotiate concessions from the EU with Cameron before the referendum. Replace him with somebody who hadn't "gone native" on the EU gravy train. Although our mutual pal won't accept it, the lack of any substantial concessions on the issues that mattered contributed significantly to the victory of the leave campaign.

[Johnny Bognor]

Agree totally. Good riddance to him. We wouldn't want him anywhere near our negotiations post the triggering of Article 50, based on his pathetic attempt to negotiate concessions from the EU with Cameron before the referendum. Replace him with somebody who hadn't "gone native" on the EU gravy train. Although our mutual pal won't accept it, the lack of any substantial concessions on the issues that mattered contributed significantly to the victory of the leave campaign.

 

... and this is aside from the fact that he wouldn't have led the negotiations anyway.. he was stepping down in October and as everyone acknowledges, it will take a lot longer to thrash out a deal. So it makes perfect sense to step down now.

[buctootim]

There is of course the argument that he was guilty of diluting what Cameron wanted to ask for. Ultimately this undermined what package Cameron could put to the people and that was what led to Brexit. Your astute and seasoned negotiator was ultimately the architect of Brexit.

 

One less of the 10,000 EU bureaucrats who are paid more than our prime minister. Hopefully we will get somebody in who will bat for Britain.

 

lol. You love lapping up the Telegraph nonsense. They had to really massage the figures to try to justify that claim - by scouring across 27 countries, claiming £83,000 pa is really the same as Cameron's £142,000pa by using only take home pay rates instead of gross and then adding in all accommodation allowances, but ignoring the PMs free houses. By contrast 10,000 public employees in just one country, Britain, really do earn more than the PM . https://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/2011/05/24/public-sector-spending/

[solentstars]

i,m glad hes gone to be honest,why do we need experts has all those bright clever brexiters say,surely we have the experts on here and there mates down the pub know better on getting a good deal and wrap all those trade deals over the world in 3 months while cutting red tape..meaning workers protection and rights in coded terms being a world export power:lol: we call the shots.. maybe we can have a raffle to chose our new negotiator from weatherspoons drinkers..lol what a joke brexit is.. the reality is we seen the pound slump makeing it cheaper for foreign buying up uk plc on the cheap and debt to hit 91 % of gdp in good times ,hate to think what will happen if we have a major downturn and inflation. still i believe there is a film out at the cinemas called la la land and was shocked it was not about brexit:D feel sorry for the young people of this country whos future has been wrecked .

[Batman]

meanwhile, depsite BREXIT being the peoples choice (and the doom that was surely about to follow)

 

Manufacturing output hits 2.5 year high, £16.3bn of new foreign investment and FTSE all time high... Happy New Year

err

 

the reality is we seen the pound slump makeing it cheaper for foreign buying up uk plc on the cheap and debt to hit 91 % of gdp in good times ,hate to think what will happen if we have a major downturn and inflation. .

 

 

This chap has been replaced already.

Edited 4 January, 2017 by Batman

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

lol. You love lapping up the Telegraph nonsense. They had to really massage the figures to try to justify that claim - by scouring across 27 countries, claiming £83,000 pa is really the same as Cameron's £142,000pa by using only take home pay rates instead of gross and then adding in all accommodation allowances, but ignoring the PMs free houses. By contrast 10,000 public employees in just one country, Britain, really do earn more than the PM . https://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/2011/05/24/public-sector-spending/

 

I was quite comfortable with their calculations - surely you should look at take home pay and tax rates etc?

 

Isn't it sad that the EU refuse to publish details of the pay of their civil servants. Almost as if they have something to hide.

[shurlock]

Agree totally. Good riddance to him. We wouldn't want him anywhere near our negotiations post the triggering of Article 50, based on his pathetic attempt to negotiate concessions from the EU with Cameron before the referendum. Replace him with somebody who hadn't "gone native" on the EU gravy train. Although our mutual pal won't accept it, the lack of any substantial concessions on the issues that mattered contributed significantly to the victory of the leave campaign.

 

 

Happy new year les. First let's be clear: the fault of negotiations lies squarely with Cameron -from the way he consistently mishandled relations with the EU after he became to PM to demanding things neither he or anyone could get. Alas his demands were stunts, designed to play well with bumpkins and yokels like you.

 

Second you really don't have a clue about the ethos and nature of the civil service, do you? Regardless of his personal beliefs and enthusiasms, Rogers is a technically skilled professional and would have negotiated to his brief, whatever it was. And for what it's worth, he was not a 'native'. He likely played a key role in keeping the UK out of the Euro given he was Gordon Brown's EU advisor at the Treasury and Brown and the Treasury were the main opponents to the Euro.

 

Again platitudes about not batting for the UK grotesquely and monumentally miss the point. Jonathan Powell puts it nicely: "If we are moving into a world where civil servants cannot give frank advice and cannot point out where the elephant traps lie, then ministers will fall into them. Even worse, if Prime Minister Theresa May does as Eurosceptic ministers seem to be urging, which is appoint a replacement on the basis of their political beliefs, then we will have fatally undermined one of the fundamental principles of our unwritten constitution".

 

Epic f**kwittery once again. You're setting for yourself a blinding 2017 pal.

 

N.B. Thankfully May has resisted the populist baiting to appoint a yesman.

Edited 4 January, 2017 by shurlock

[badgerx16]

 

Isn't it sad that the EU refuse to publish details of the pay of their civil servants. Almost as if they have something to hide.

 

http://ec.europa.eu/civil_service/job/official/index_en.htm

 

SalaryBasic monthly Commission salaries range from around €2,300 per month for a newly recruited AST/SC 1 official to around €16,000 per month for a top level AD 16 official with over 4 years of seniority.

Each grade is broken up into five seniority steps with corresponding salary increases. Basic salaries are adjusted annually in line with inflation and purchasing power in the EU countries. The complete salary table is available in the Staff Regulations (Article 66).

 

( Follow the Staff Regulations hyperlink and look for article 66 - page 54 on the PDF version )

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

http://ec.europa.eu/civil_service/job/official/index_en.htm

 

SalaryBasic monthly Commission salaries range from around €2,300 per month for a newly recruited AST/SC 1 official to around €16,000 per month for a top level AD 16 official with over 4 years of seniority.

Each grade is broken up into five seniority steps with corresponding salary increases. Basic salaries are adjusted annually in line with inflation and purchasing power in the EU countries. The complete salary table is available in the Staff Regulations (Article 66).

 

( Follow the Staff Regulations hyperlink and look for article 66 - page 54 on the PDF version )

 

I am embarrassed to say that I am guilty of quoting the Telegraph with my original statement but what you have unearthed is different to saying what the EU pays its 47,000 civil servants

Edited 4 January, 2017 by Sergei Gotsmanov

[buctootim]

I am embarrassed to say that I am guilty of quoting the Telegraph with my original statement but what you have unearthed is different to saying what the EU pays its 47,000 civil servants

 

No what you should be embarrassed to say is that you have misread / misreported what the Telegraph wrote. They are trying portray the EU as doing something nefarious - refusing to disclose the nett pay of its staff. Of course they wont. No employer or Government, including the UK government would do that - it would be a massive illegal breach of confidential tax information.

 

These lame attempts to bash the EU do the Brexit cause no favours. "Ooh they pay 10,000 staff more than the PM" - err no they dont. "Oooh they wont tell us what the take home pay of staff is" - no **** Shurlock? If that is the best you can do, then Brexit has nothing.

Edited 4 January, 2017 by buctootim

[Goatboy]

Not sure this has been posted over here. Courtesy of SuperMikey on sotonians:

https://blogs.mediapart.fr/edition/les-invites-de-mediapart/article/040216/yanis-varoufakis-manifesto-democratising-europe

[badgerx16]

I am embarrassed to say that I am guilty of quoting the Telegraph with my original statement but what you have unearthed is different to saying what the EU pays its 47,000 civil servants

 

 

The salary scales are in the Staff Regulations document, as I have pointed out.

[Wes Tender]

Happy new year les. First let's be clear: the fault of negotiations lies squarely with Cameron -from the way he consistently mishandled relations with the EU after he became to PM to demanding things neither he or anyone could get. Alas his demands were stunts, designed to play well with bumpkins and yokels like you.

 

Second you really don't have a clue about the ethos and nature of the civil service, do you? Regardless of his personal beliefs and enthusiasms, Rogers is a technically skilled professional and would have negotiated to his brief, whatever it was. And for what it's worth, he was not a 'native'. He likely played a key role in keeping the UK out of the Euro given he was Gordon Brown's EU advisor at the Treasury and Brown and the Treasury were the main opponents to the Euro.

 

Again platitudes about not batting for the UK grotesquely and monumentally miss the point. Jonathan Powell puts it nicely: "If we are moving into a world where civil servants cannot give frank advice and cannot point out where the elephant traps lie, then ministers will fall into them. Even worse, if Prime Minister Theresa May does as Eurosceptic ministers seem to be urging, which is appoint a replacement on the basis of their political beliefs, then we will have fatally undermined one of the fundamental principles of our unwritten constitution".

 

Epic f**kwittery once again. You're setting for yourself a blinding 2017 pal.

 

N.B. Thankfully May has resisted the populist baiting to appoint a yesman.

 

And a Happy New Year from Lest End, Shatlock.

 

The fault of negotiations with the EU must partly lie on Rogers' shoulders as Cameron's main Civil Service advisor on EU affairs. However, I agree that because of the bone-headed obstinacy of the EU leaders, it was unlikely that they would allow the sort of concessions and reforms to EU policy that would have encouraged the electorate to vote to stay in the EU. Cameron should have realised this and his position was severely compromised when he had made threats that he would campaign to leave the EU if we didn't achieve those reforms and then attempted to dress up the meagre gruel the EU granted as substantial concessions, fooling nobody.

 

Regarding your yokels and bumpkins jibe, it pleases me to note that you haven't made a New Year resolution to curb the arrogance typical of the wettest Remoaners like you, who delight in labelling Brexiteers as being a bit thick for wanting to leave the bloated dysfunctional EU. As pointed out many times before, resorting to these infantile insults demeans your credibility as well as indicating that sometimes a nerve has been struck. Do please continue with it, as it doesn't bother me, but makes you look juvenile.

 

You really are very naive to believe that the ethos of the Civil Service would dictate that Rogers or indeed any other Civil Servant would be totally unaffected by their own personal beliefs and enthusiasms.As advisers to the Government, there is naturally going to be a bias towards their own personal beliefs; it is human nature. You say that it is likely that Rogers played a key part in keeping the UK out of the Eurozone. No doubt you will be happy to furnish any evidence of that, or will you suggest that as he is a Civil Servant he should not make public utterances on policy (unless they are deliberately leaked out of spite). Without any evidence to support your statement, it is pure conjecture.

 

I'm very much looking forward to the events of 2017. Not long now to the triggering of Article 50 and then the fun can begin in earnest. During the two year negotiation period, there is plenty of scope for events in other EU member states to drastically change the political landscape, particularly within the Eurozone. Exciting times ahead.

[Wes Tender]

- no **** Shurlock?

 

Sherlock, please.

[buctootim]

Sherlock, please.

 

I've been brainwashed...

[Winnersaint]

I could have phrased that better. I was ridiculing the Brexit argument that anyone who wants to stay is just a 'remoaner' - regardless of how experienced they are or how informed their position.

Indeed I was trying to take a similar standpoint. Rushed post tbh.

[Guided Missile]

More bad news for the Remainers here.

 

The UK service sector grew at its fastest pace for 17 months in December, a closely watched survey has indicated. The Markit/CIPS services purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 56.2 last month, from 55.2 in November - the highest level since July 2015.

[John B]

Chris Giles in the Financial Times say the main reason economists were wrong about the immediate economic impact of Brexit was that they expected household spending to go down when instead it went up.

In fact, we know the predominant source of error. It stemmed from underestimating the strength of household consumption after the vote for Brexit. Economists expected a vote to leave would increase household savings in the short term, both as precautionary insurance against uncertainty and to begin an adjustment to a less prosperous future.

 

These were reasonable guesses, based on recent household behaviour — for example, at the time of huge banking uncertainty early in 2008. But rather than rising, household savings fell throughout 2016. The savings ratio dropped to an exceptionally low level in the third quarter as consumers went on a borrowing and spending binge not seen since before the financial crisis.

 

The interesting question is why households acted in this way. There are three plausible reasons. First, households correctly thought Brexit would improve their personal finances and borrowed and spent accordingly. Second, they were deceived into expecting economic gains from Brexit and still went out to spend. And, third, households watched sterling tumble, understood the likely effect on prices and brought forward their consumption, so they were spending in the knowledge their money would buy less in future.

 

Economic analysis allows us to set out these possibilities; it tells us only the last of the three options is sustainable; but it does not yet inform us which is correct.

 

By the end of 2017, we will know whether historically low levels of saving have persisted through the year, and this will provide a pretty good answer to the question of why spending held up so well after the EU referendum. If spending was merely brought forward, there will be a nasty jolt in the economy.

 

Yes Good at the moment but may not be so when inflation rises in 2017

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/04/uk-shoppers-happy-borrowing-money-danger-ahead-credit

[badgerx16]

More bad news for the Remainers here.

 

 

Why is that bad news ?

[aintforever]

Chris Giles in the Financial Times say the main reason economists were wrong about the immediate economic impact of Brexit was that they expected household spending to go down when instead it went up.

In fact, we know the predominant source of error. It stemmed from underestimating the strength of household consumption after the vote for Brexit. Economists expected a vote to leave would increase household savings in the short term, both as precautionary insurance against uncertainty and to begin an adjustment to a less prosperous future.

 

These were reasonable guesses, based on recent household behaviour — for example, at the time of huge banking uncertainty early in 2008. But rather than rising, household savings fell throughout 2016. The savings ratio dropped to an exceptionally low level in the third quarter as consumers went on a borrowing and spending binge not seen since before the financial crisis.

 

The interesting question is why households acted in this way. There are three plausible reasons. First, households correctly thought Brexit would improve their personal finances and borrowed and spent accordingly. Second, they were deceived into expecting economic gains from Brexit and still went out to spend. And, third, households watched sterling tumble, understood the likely effect on prices and brought forward their consumption, so they were spending in the knowledge their money would buy less in future.

 

Economic analysis allows us to set out these possibilities; it tells us only the last of the three options is sustainable; but it does not yet inform us which is correct.

 

By the end of 2017, we will know whether historically low levels of saving have persisted through the year, and this will provide a pretty good answer to the question of why spending held up so well after the EU referendum. If spending was merely brought forward, there will be a nasty jolt in the economy.

 

Yes Good at the moment but may not be so when inflation rises in 2017

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/04/uk-shoppers-happy-borrowing-money-danger-ahead-credit

 

So basically the experts were wrong, don't know why and things may get better or worse, they don't know.

 

Best put as much of a negative spin on it as possible just so the first incorrect prediction doesn't look quite as bad.

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

I'm more than a little relieved that our economy did not crash in the immediate aftermath of last year's vote. However, claims that leaving the EU will somehow be a consequence-free move for our economy, years before we have even left that body, seem grossly premature at best - kind of like jumping out of a tall building and proclaiming the experience to be a entirely painless one halfway down.

 

Meanwhile, it would seem that any hopes that the UK will be able to "buy" access to the EU Single Market area post Bretix, without accepting that Market's core principles as Norway has, are unlikely to be realised:

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38523368