Brexit - Post Match Reaction

[shurlock]

Show me where I said that distance didn't matter. But it matters less than it did decades ago and will matter even less as our trade with the rest of the World increases and economies of scale further reduce costs. For somebody as bright as you think you are, this concept is taking a long to penetrate.

 

 

Still making things up - you've not done any reading, have you?

[aintforever]

One Brexiter murder trial down, one to go.

 

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/nov/23/thomas-mair-slow-burning-hatred-led-to-jo-cox-murder

 

I expect it was the lies of the Remain campaign's project fear that tipped him over the edge. Apparently he had a Remain leaflet on him when he did it, obviously a contributing factor.

[Lord Duckhunter]

I expect it was the lies of the Remain campaign's project fear that tipped him over the edge. Apparently he had a Remain leaflet on him when he did it, obviously a contributing factor.

 

55% of her constituency voted leave. Which means there's a lot of hateful, bigoted people who condone this violence or like most sensible people think this had nothing to do with any referendum. Obviously this doesn't chime with verbal but he does seem to have mental health issues over Brexit.God knows why, maybe Nigel ****ged his Mrs, but he does seem a bit unhinged

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

Anyone who comes here and attempts to downplay the obvious significance of our European export markets, by stating that only 6 or 8% of UK businesses export to the continent, is clearly guilty of sophistry. What is worse, they presumably think that such a childishly misleading argument will somehow be allowed to pass unnoticed on here! This is shameful and demeaning behaviour that should never be resorted to - however desperate we are to respond to criticism. Again, the official record shows - beyond any meaningful dispute - that in 2015 some 44% of UK exports were destined to end up in the Single Market area. Twist and turn to your heart's desire, distort that truth as far as you can, that is still the fact of the matter.

 

I suppose your average small bakery may not export very much to Bulgaria - this is not surprising. I doubt somehow that my local DIY retailer trades very much with Malta - it is quite far away. Nevertheless, millions of British workers, and their families, depend on this nation trading with its neighbours. Any fool can see that this trade will continue at some level when we do finally depart the EU. The point here is that it will become harder to get those exported goods and services into Europe over the trade barrier we are about to construct around us.

 

The Autumn Statement yesterday confirmed that growth in our economy is expected to fall and our (already vast) national debt will certainly rise further - these effects at least partly attributed to the effects of Bretix. All this was predicted during the referendum campaign but dismissed at the time as just 'Project Fear'. Well perhaps more of our people should have been a little afraid because it turns out that they had good cause to feel so. The British people have been sold a pig in a poke.

[Wes Tender]

Anyone who comes here and attempts to downplay the obvious significance of our European export markets, by stating that only 6 or 8% of UK businesses export to the continent, is clearly guilty of sophistry.

 

https://fullfact.org/europe/how-many-businesses-export-eu/

 

Are you going to contact them and accuse them of sophistry? Perhaps you will put them (and us) right with your accurately researched figures.

 

Nobody is disputing your 44% figure, although exports to the EU have fallen over recent years whilst exports to the rest of the World have risen and will rise again once we are free to negotiate our own trade deals.

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

https://fullfact.org/europe/how-many-businesses-export-eu/

 

Are you going to contact them and accuse them of sophistry? Perhaps you will put them (and us) right with your accurately researched figures.

 

Nobody is disputing your 44% figure, although exports to the EU have fallen over recent years whilst exports to the rest of the World have risen and will rise again once we are free to negotiate our own trade deals.

 

I have observed over time that when in a 'hole' your normal reaction is to trawl the Internet until you find something/anything that supports your particular hard-line point of view. You appear to consider that this habit of yours somehow forms a satisfactory response. You can find almost ANY opinion promoted somewhere on the net if you look hard enough. So what?

 

I don't mind this all that much, but if you could vary your tactics every now and then this might make your posts on here marginally less tedious for the rest of us to read. You might even become more respected on here ...

[hutch]

Hammond’s statement was a chance to make a first big assessment of the impact of Brexit on the UK economy.

 

The verdict is, without question, bleak. Growth is down, borrowing has to rise, and the dream of a surplus has been deferred to “as soon as practicable”, ie never

Smart politics.

[Wes Tender]

I have observed over time that when in a 'hole' your normal reaction is to trawl the Internet until you find something/anything that supports your particular hard-line point of view. You appear to consider that this habit of yours somehow forms a satisfactory response. You can find almost ANY opinion promoted somewhere on the net if you look hard enough. So what?

 

I don't mind this all that much, but if you could vary your tactics every now and then this might make your posts on here marginally less tedious for the rest of us to read. You might even become more respected on here ...

 

I can understand your bluster, because the figures that you labelled as sophistry turned out to be nothing of the sort and are backed up by a well respected independent organisation which exists to examine the veracity of such statements and claims made in campaigns such as the Referendum. As you say, one can find anything that supports a particular point of view, so you are welcome to trawl the internet to find your own figures regarding the percentage of British businesses who export to the EU and I'll look at your source.

 

P.S. I am not in a hole. I was aware of this percentage figure from during the Referendum campaign and have used it before. Neither are my views particularly hard-line, as they coincide with most of the electorate who voted to Leave the EU. If my posts are tedious to you, there is an ignore button, you know.

[Verbal]

Excellent piece by David Aaronovitch (warnings Tender, he's Jewish, and the following makes reference to books) in The Times today, on why the political Right needs to take responsibility for the violent and murderous behaviour of the far Right:

 

A snippet:

 

"Nor do I think the fact that Mair was probably mentally ill helps us to explain his crime. Mental illness explains everything and explains nothing here. Why, after all, would such an illness take that specific form of psychotic behaviour? I have yet to come across an example of a public figure murdered by a mad liberal whose home was found to be stocked with books by John Stuart Mill and covered in slogans calling for proportional representation."

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

I can understand your bluster, because the figures that you labelled as sophistry turned out to be nothing of the sort and are backed up by a well respected independent organisation which exists to examine the veracity of such statements and claims made in campaigns such as the Referendum. As you say, one can find anything that supports a particular point of view, so you are welcome to trawl the internet to find your own figures regarding the percentage of British businesses who export to the EU and I'll look at your source.

 

P.S. I am not in a hole. I was aware of this percentage figure from during the Referendum campaign and have used it before. Neither are my views particularly hard-line, as they coincide with most of the electorate who voted to Leave the EU. If my posts are tedious to you, there is an ignore button, you know.

 

 

Ah 'bluster' - I am pleased to see you that you are at least making some effort to expand your vocabulary - I had been expecting to see 'shrill' or 'arrogant' rolled out yet again. Less impressive however is your defence against the charge sophistry as you have yet to show this forum why anyone should believe that the mere number of UK businesses involved in trading with Europe is of any great significance when compared to the fact that such a sizeable proportion of UK exports go to the Single Market area.

 

But I suppose that once your trade barriers are constructed around these islands the volume of UK exports heading for the continent will (very likely) fall further. I wonder if and when that actually happens you will rush back be on here keen to employ that as another argument why trading with our neighbours is unimportant ....

[sandwichsaint]

But if we are going to change things for the better there has to be a period of uncertainty. They are just going to have to deal with it. The sooner we just crack on the better.

 

That's the spirit! The meter's running and that cost of £2000 per head is probably rising by the day....

[Wes Tender]

Excellent piece by David Aaronovitch (warnings Tender, he's Jewish, and the following makes reference to books) in The Times today, on why the political Right needs to take responsibility for the violent and murderous behaviour of the far Right:

 

A snippet:

 

"Nor do I think the fact that Mair was probably mentally ill helps us to explain his crime. Mental illness explains everything and explains nothing here. Why, after all, would such an illness take that specific form of psychotic behaviour? I have yet to come across an example of a public figure murdered by a mad liberal whose home was found to be stocked with books by John Stuart Mill and covered in slogans calling for proportional representation."

 

You seem to be labouring under the misapprehension that I am somehow anti-semitic. I'm sorry to disappoint you, but I am nothing of the sort. I am an admirer of the Jewish peoples and don't harbour much admiration or indeed liking for the Arabs. I believe that I have said this before, but it is obviously taking some time to penetrate your skull.

 

As amusing as that quote is, he misses the point by trying to make a comparison with the right wing of politics and the far right, compared to the liberal left. The comparison would be more apt if he spoke of the left wing of politics compared to the extreme left. If he is speaking of mental illnesses, then that is not something that only afflicts people whose political views are right of centre any more than it affects liberals who are left of centre.

 

I was interested in one of the comments in response to the article and thought that you would be too.

 

We have a Leader of the Opposition who described Hamas and Hezbollah as his friends, who described a venomous anti-Semite as "a good representative of his people" and invited him to "tea on the [House of Commons] terrace", and who honoured dead IRA bombers as people who "died fighting for an independent Ireland".

 

We have a Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer who said we should "applaud the bravery and sacrifice of the IRA" and "joked" about having Labour councilors who refused to meet Sinn Fein in the 1980s kneecapped. He also "joked" about assassinating Margaret Thatcher, and about punching Conservatives in the face.

 

To anyone with both eyes open, it should be clear that the most explicit, ugly and mainstream legitimization of political violence in the UK is to be found on the left. On the Labour party front bench, actually.

 

I know how much you love the new leadership of the Labour Party, so thought you might appreciate it.

[Wes Tender]

Ah 'bluster' - I am pleased to see you that you are at least making some effort to expand your vocabulary - I had been expecting to see 'shrill' or 'arrogant' rolled out yet again. Less impressive however is your defence against the charge sophistry as you have yet to show this forum why anyone should believe that the mere number of UK businesses involved in trading with Europe is of any great significance when compared to the fact that such a sizeable proportion of UK exports go to the Single Market area.

 

But I suppose that once your trade barriers are constructed around these islands the volume of UK exports heading for the continent will (very likely) fall further. I wonder if and when that actually happens you will rush back be on here keen to employ that as another argument why trading with our neighbours is unimportant ....

 

How ironic that you infer that my vocabulary is not as broad as yours and then go on to continue to misuse the word sophistry. You applied it my assertion that only 6-8% of British companies exported to the EU and the evidence of that independent fact checking organisation proved that usage to be invalid, so I do not have to defend myself against the charge at all. Regarding your preference to speak of the sizeable proportion of UK exports to the EU, you will now no doubt accept that it is a small percentage of British companies who manage to achieve this high volume of exports and no doubt many of those companies' products and services are also sent around the World too. The obvious significance of the small percentage of companies involved in exporting to the EU, is that the vast majority of British businesses will carry on as normal post-Brexit.

 

In your last paragraph, you suppose wrong. I have previously asserted that trade tariffs benefit nobody and our position would be that we would wish to continue trading with the EU without them. If they seek to cut of their nose to spite their face, then we will have to decide whether to reciprocate. The fact that we will increase our trade with the rest of the World once free to arrange bilateral free trade deals, will mean that the proportion of trade will naturally increase in favour of the rest of the World, regardless of whether it might decline with the EU if they impose tariffs, causing their products to become less competitive. It really is up to them.

[OldNick]

It seems to me that we may as well go straight to WTO tariffs and get on with it, as there is no way we will sort out an agreement in 2 years with 27 countries who have different agendas and self interest. It will save us a lot of hand wringing, the costs to do it, and also the uncertainty in general business while they play their politics.

[buctootim]

"Workers' pay growth prospects dreadful", says Institute for Fiscal Studies. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said workers would earn less in real wages in 2021 than they did in 2008.

 

Still it will be worth it, what with getting our freedom back n all.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38090977

[John B]

"Workers' pay growth prospects dreadful", says Institute for Fiscal Studies. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said workers would earn less in real wages in 2021 than they did in 2008.

 

Still it will be worth it, what with getting our freedom back n all.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38090977

 

'Workers in Britain face the biggest squeeze on their pay for 70 years as a Brexit blow to the economy knocks wage growth and stokes inflation, according to an analysis of the UK’s government’s latest tax and spending plans.'

 

And that's probably the best we can expect.

 

The worst is hyperinflation, mass unemployment, and a reliance on a bankrupt state to fund the growing demands on the welfare state and NHS, which will both collapse.

 

All in the name of 'taking back control'.

 

I have seen no details or value estimates of the 'huge trade opportunities' that await Brexit Britain. Unless posters can give tangible details instead of waffle and hype they should shut up.

[shurlock]

How ironic that you infer that my vocabulary is not as broad as yours and then go on to continue to misuse the word sophistry. You applied it my assertion that only 6-8% of British companies exported to the EU and the evidence of that independent fact checking organisation proved that usage to be invalid, so I do not have to defend myself against the charge at all. Regarding your preference to speak of the sizeable proportion of UK exports to the EU, you will now no doubt accept that it is a small percentage of British companies who manage to achieve this high volume of exports and no doubt many of those companies' products and services are also sent around the World too. The obvious significance of the small percentage of companies involved in exporting to the EU, is that the vast majority of British businesses will carry on as normal post-Brexit.

 

In your last paragraph, you suppose wrong. I have previously asserted that trade tariffs benefit nobody and our position would be that we would wish to continue trading with the EU without them. If they seek to cut of their nose to spite their face, then we will have to decide whether to reciprocate. The fact that we will increase our trade with the rest of the World once free to arrange bilateral free trade deals, will mean that the proportion of trade will naturally increase in favour of the rest of the World, regardless of whether it might decline with the EU if they impose tariffs, causing their products to become less competitive. It really is up to them.

 

Perversely Les, I kind of admire your brazen contempt for evidence - it certainly makes bulls**ting a lot easier.

Edited 24 November, 2016 by shurlock

[badgerx16]

David Gauke, Chief Secretary to the Treasury confirms that the UK economy would have reached a surplus were it not for Brexit #Newsnight

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/801557915576451072

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

How ironic that you infer that my vocabulary is not as broad as yours and then go on to continue to misuse the word sophistry. You applied it my assertion that only 6-8% of British companies exported to the EU and the evidence of that independent fact checking organisation proved that usage to be invalid, so I do not have to defend myself against the charge at all. Regarding your preference to speak of the sizeable proportion of UK exports to the EU, you will now no doubt accept that it is a small percentage of British companies who manage to achieve this high volume of exports and no doubt many of those companies' products and services are also sent around the World too. The obvious significance of the small percentage of companies involved in exporting to the EU, is that the vast majority of British businesses will carry on as normal post-Brexit.

 

In your last paragraph, you suppose wrong. I have previously asserted that trade tariffs benefit nobody and our position would be that we would wish to continue trading with the EU without them. If they seek to cut of their nose to spite their face, then we will have to decide whether to reciprocate. The fact that we will increase our trade with the rest of the World once free to arrange bilateral free trade deals, will mean that the proportion of trade will naturally increase in favour of the rest of the World, regardless of whether it might decline with the EU if they impose tariffs, causing their products to become less competitive. It really is up to them.

 

No, not for the first time on here you have missed (or should I say avoided) the point by about a country mile. Your '6 to 8%' claim is indeed sophistic in nature not because it is technically inaccurate (in a narrow sense) but rather because this doesn't really matter very much - and you know it. UK industry comprises of a great number of businesses both large, medium and small. Many of the relatively small scale operations employ few people and will clearly not be much concerned with exporting - my 'local bakery' example being a typical case in point.

 

However, the success of our economy - not to mention our balance of payments - depends to a large degree upon exporting UK produced goods and services. Therefore to imply - as you did - that as only a minority of UK businesses are engaged in exporting to the Single Market area this means exporting to Europe is hence less vital to this nation's welfare than it is in reality is grossly misleading. You have been accused of sophistry and you Sir are guilty of that charge.

 

As for now attempting (unconvincingly) to claim that you have always been opposed to trade tariffs, you really can't both 'have your cake and eat it' as they say. Indeed, one would think that you really should join the many other Bretix extremists and just accept now that these trade tariffs are the almost inevitable consequence of the Bretix agenda you right-wingers have spend much of the last year promoting. If you don't like that then all I can say is that people like you should be more careful in future what they wish for.

Edited 24 November, 2016 by CHAPEL END CHARLIE

[OldNick]

No, not for the first time on here you have missed (or should I say avoided) the point by about a country mile. Your '6 to 8%' claim is indeed sophistic in nature not because it is technically inaccurate (in a narrow sense) but rather because this doesn't really matter very much - and you know it. UK industry comprises of a great number of businesses both large, medium and small. Many of the relatively small scale operations employ few people and will clearly not be much concerned with exporting - my 'local bakery' example being a typical case in point.

 

However, the success of our economy - not to mention our balance of payments - depends to a large degree upon exporting UK produced goods and services. Therefore to imply - as you did - that as only a minority of UK businesses are engaged in exporting to the Single Market area this means exporting to Europe is hence less vital to this nation's welfare than it is in reality is grossly misleading. You have been accused of sophistry and you Sir are guilty of that charge.

 

As for now attempting (unconvincingly) to claim that you have always been opposed to trade tariffs, you really can't both 'have your cake and eat it' as they say. Indeed, one would think that you really should join the many other Bretix extremists and just accept now that these trade tariffs are the almost inevitable consequence of the Bretix agenda you right-wingers have spend much of the last year promoting. If you don't like that then all I can say is that people like you should be more careful in future what they wish for.

I'm sure you are correct except it is not just right wingers who voted out.Much of Labour heartlands did as well

[John B]

David Gauke, Chief Secretary to the Treasury confirms that the UK economy would have reached a surplus were it not for Brexit #Newsnight

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/801557915576451072

I doubt that would have been the case but blaming Brexit for Tory Economic mismanagement is a change from blaming Labour they were very unlikely to have met this years targets even if Brexit had not occurred

 

Brexit is just part of the reason that the UK Economy is in a bad state the main cause however as DuckHunter has said recently is down to Cameron Osborne and the Tories

 

Especially as there is little evidence that Business is investing

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-economy-idUKKCN1290ZR

 

 

Just because more people voted for leaving the EU on one particular day does that mean that Brexit was the right decision. with many unable or could not vote.

 

I heard of somebody that voted out by post had died before the 23 June and probably there were some that voted Remain did not make it either.

 

Leave said things that would happen if we left the EU which were plainly wrong and untruthful

 

Such as

 

Extra £350m each week for the NHS

 

Turkey was going to join the EU and the country was going to be flooded by Turks

 

A new points based immigration system was going to be implemented to reduce immigration even though we need it to grow the economy as we have an aging population.

 

We could still have tariff free dealings with a market of 550billion people

 

Inward investment would continue and we could get fantastic trade deals with the rest of the world.

 

 

The incompetent Cameron and Osborne scared people with there economic rhetoric so much so that people like Batman did not realise that there would be economic consequences for leaving the EU as sterling would fall inflation would rise and growth and productivity would fall which is very likely to happen.

 

We joined the EU when I was a young man because we were economically unsuccessful and in the forty years or so since we have grown to be a very successful economy with average growth about 2% every year with both Tory and Labour Governments

 

It has been the policy of all Political Parties during the last forty years that our economic future was best served by being in the EU .

 

So I find it strange that we are now out with no plan on how the EU is going to be replaced but many are estatic about the prospect as they hope that it will be alright on the night.

 

But there is a very strong chance that millions of us will be poorer live for a shorter life and will be very unhappy

[John B]

I'm sure you are correct except it is not just right wingers who voted out.Much of Labour heartlands did as well

 

It was the the right wing press and UKIP which convinced the working class that the EU and immigration was responsible for falling living standards and losing their jobs.

 

When in fact it was the Tory's choice to shrink the state with Austerity invest less in housing and training so that trained immigrants from the EU were blamed when they came to the UK.

 

The Tories could also have alleviated the problem if they had built more homes had not cancelled Labour's emergency local fund in area with large immigration and had made certain that incoming EU citizens were not paid less that UK born citizens

[Wes Tender]

No, not for the first time on here you have missed (or should I say avoided) the point by about a country mile. Your '6 to 8%' claim is indeed sophistic in nature not because it is technically inaccurate (in a narrow sense) but rather because this doesn't really matter very much - and you know it.

 

Naturally it doesn't matter much to you, but it brings some perspective to the situation, in that the vast majority of British businesses do not export to the EU, so they will continue much as before post-Brexit. That is not technically inaccurate, nor sophistry; you just won't admit that you were wrong, but I should at least be grateful that you begin to accept the accuracy of the statistic, albeit grudgingly. And please don't assume that you know what I am thinking; you don't.

 

As with most Remainians when you speak of the importance of our trade with the EU, you insinuate that Brexit voters don't realise the importance of it. But that trade is not going to suddenly disappear, is it? There may be small tariffs, but the volume of trade will largely remain much the same. This will be a price worth paying for the other pluses like regaining lost sovereignty, control of our borders, restoring the power of our own legal system and having the ability to set up our own bilateral trade agreements with the rest of the World. Typically for the Remainians, as in the Referendum campaign they concentrated purely on the economic aspects and didn't wish to engage on all of the other aspects.

 

And as Nick correctly pointed out, you have a very blinkered view of the spectrum of support there was for Leaving the EU.

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

Naturally it doesn't matter much to you, but it brings some perspective to the situation, in that the vast majority of British businesses do not export to the EU, so they will continue much as before post-Brexit. That is not technically inaccurate, nor sophistry; you just won't admit that you were wrong, but I should at least be grateful that you begin to accept the accuracy of the statistic, albeit grudgingly. And please don't assume that you know what I am thinking; you don't.

 

As with most Remainians when you speak of the importance of our trade with the EU, you insinuate that Brexit voters don't realise the importance of it. But that trade is not going to suddenly disappear, is it? There may be small tariffs, but the volume of trade will largely remain much the same. This will be a price worth paying for the other pluses like regaining lost sovereignty, control of our borders, restoring the power of our own legal system and having the ability to set up our own bilateral trade agreements with the rest of the World. Typically for the Remainians, as in the Referendum campaign they concentrated purely on the economic aspects and didn't wish to engage on all of the other aspects.

 

And as Nick correctly pointed out, you have a very blinkered view of the spectrum of support there was for Leaving the EU.

 

To take the last point first. If memory serves you have said on here before I recall that you are a Tory - or was it sometimes UKIP - voter. So then, to depict you as a right winger of some sort doesn't seem to be all that outrageous a depiction. Why on Earth do you now object to this? I've long thought that a man should have the courage of his own convictions. As for further denials that you intended to mislead this forum then the evidence otherwise seems pretty conclusive - why else would anyone post such a '6%' distortion if not to mislead.

[Wes Tender]

To take the last point first. If memory serves you have said on here before I recall that you are a Tory - or was it sometimes UKIP - voter. So then, to depict you as a right winger of some sort doesn't seem to be all that outrageous a depiction. Why on Earth do you now object to this? I've long thought that a man should have the courage of his own convictions. As for further denials that you intended to mislead this forum then the evidence otherwise seems pretty conclusive - why else would anyone post such a '6%' distortion if not to mislead.

 

I merely pointed out that Nick had to correct your fallacy that it was only right wingers who had voted for Brexit, unless you are going to classify that strong vote in the Labour heartlands that Nick spoke of as being right wing.

 

Where did I deny being a Conservative voter? I have voted Conservative in every election all my life apart from once when I voted UKIP during the last European Elections and that was purely to add strength to the campaign to force a Referendum on the EU. I have also stated several times that I had wanted us to leave the EU since Maastricht. I am entirely content to be classified as being on the right wing of British politics; it is nothing that I am reticent to admit. I agree that people should have the courage of their convictions, which is why I voted to leave the EU, having all those years ago campaigned on the doorstep to join the Common Market. Unless you can argue otherwise, I would claim to be probably more politically motivated by my convictions than you perhaps.

 

And once again, I challenge your assertion that posting the percentage of UK businesses engaged in export trade with the EU is misleading. For a start, it is a bit disingenuous of you to cite just the 6% figure, when I had widened the scope by a third higher to cover the range of opinion, so a bit rich you talking of distortion. And unless you are going to provide your own source of statistics to discredit those provided by the fact checker site, then they are not misleading.

[moonraker]

The argument about the absolute number/percentage of companies that export to EU is fallacious. What is fundamental is the value in terms of overall exports of those companies. The wealth and success of major exporters is vital to the wealth and success of many non-exporters, especially in the retail, catering and hospitality sectors. These sectors may not in themselves export but they do not exist in a bubble. Despite Wes’s seemingly to continually avoid the fact that that the value of UK exports to the EU is a major and essential part of our economy it is highly likely that many non-exporting business in these sectors will suffer a significant knock on effect from more difficult trading conditions for exporters. The idea that as yet un-negotiated, overly optimistic bilateral trade deals or some special deal with the EU will solve all our self imposed ills is mindboggling naive.

[Wes Tender]

The argument about the absolute number/percentage of companies that export to EU is fallacious. What is fundamental is the value in terms of overall exports of those companies. The wealth and success of major exporters is vital to the wealth and success of many non-exporters, especially in the retail, catering and hospitality sectors. These sectors may not in themselves export but they do not exist in a bubble. Despite Wes’s seemingly to continually avoid the fact that that the value of UK exports to the EU is a major and essential part of our economy it is highly likely that many non-exporting business in these sectors will suffer a significant knock on effect from more difficult trading conditions for exporters. The idea that as yet un-negotiated, overly optimistic bilateral trade deals or some special deal with the EU will solve all our self imposed ills is mindboggling naive.

 

How many times before it penetrates yours and CEC's skull? The percentages have been checked by a reputable independent fact checking body, so they are not fallacious or sophistry. Either bring your own figures to the table to disprove these, or quit making yourselves look silly.

 

I understand that the value of exports by those companies is important to our economy, but they will generally continue to export to the EU, just as the EU will continue to export to us. Even if tariffs are applied both ways, they will be low and we will probably still have the advantage of a weak pound making our products better value.

 

A bit silly to talk about future trade deals expectations being overly optimistic or mindbogglingly naive when as you say they have not yet been negotiated. Equally of course, it is incredibly naive to indulge yourself in all this hand wringing, wailing and gnashing of teeth before we have even triggered article 50. I suggest that you calm yourself and await that eventuality; you'll feel a lot better for it.

[moonraker]

How many times before it penetrates yours and CEC's skull? The percentages have been checked by a reputable independent fact checking body, so they are not fallacious or sophistry. Either bring your own figures to the table to disprove these, or quit making yourselves look silly.

 

I understand that the value of exports by those companies is important to our economy, but they will generally continue to export to the EU, just as the EU will continue to export to us. Even if tariffs are applied both ways, they will be low and we will probably still have the advantage of a weak pound making our products better value.

 

A bit silly to talk about future trade deals expectations being overly optimistic or mindbogglingly naive when as you say they have not yet been negotiated. Equally of course, it is incredibly naive to indulge yourself in all this hand wringing, wailing and gnashing of teeth before we have even triggered article 50. I suggest that you calm yourself and await that eventuality; you'll feel a lot better for it.

Not arguing about the accuracy of the percentage of companies by simple numbers, just that they are meaningless in the overall context of the importance of exports. As for penetrating my skull, the space between your ears where most of us keeps a brain seems to suck in lots of random stuff, mix it up and then regurgitate it as more random stuff. Your stock answer is wait and see, if that is not optimistic and naive I don’t know what is. Even when you acknowledge that things might be difficult you justify it by saying it will be all worth it to get back yours and Brexiteers fantasy concept of sovereignty. The first time after the disaster of the referendum that Sovereign UK Law is used the Brexiteers go into their standard operating procedure of insults, vitriol and denial. Brexit will be disaster, all the signs are their your ideological myopia is incapable of acknowledging it.

[Wes Tender]

Not arguing about the accuracy of the percentage of companies by simple numbers, just that they are meaningless in the overall context of the importance of exports. As for penetrating my skull, the space between your ears where most of us keeps a brain seems to suck in lots of random stuff, mix it up and then regurgitate it as more random stuff. Your stock answer is wait and see, if that is not optimistic and naive I don’t know what is. Even when you acknowledge that things might be difficult you justify it by saying it will be all worth it to get back yours and Brexiteers fantasy concept of sovereignty. The first time after the disaster of the referendum that Sovereign UK Law is used the Brexiteers go into their standard operating procedure of insults, vitriol and denial. Brexit will be disaster, all the signs are their your ideological myopia is incapable of acknowledging it.

 

Finally an acceptance that the percentage of companies exporting to the EU is valid. Statistics like this are always meaningless to the lefties, until something similar comes up which is dear to their hearts. For example statistics like those showing that the top 10% of households control 45% of total household wealth and that the top 10%'s wealth is also five times the combined wealth of the bottom 50% of people in the country. Then the small number becomes highly significant when the context suits the agenda.

 

Again, your thought processes continue to amuse me. How can a wait and see position be optimistic and naive when usually it is the sensible and steady option when faced with an uncertainty? There is no logic behind that statement at all. My position has been that there might be short term difficulties caused by Brexit, but in the subsequent period we will look back at it and realise that it was the best thing that we did in our recent history, just as we did when we dodged a bullet by not joining the Eurozone, contrary to the economists dire warnings.

 

You insist that Brexit will be a disaster and accuse me of ideologically myopia in not acknowledging it. Conversely, your position and your ideological myopia will not allow you to countenance the possibility that our future will be better served outside of the EU, so please don't accuse me of something that also applies to you, or that is hypocrisy.

[Verbal]

You seem to be labouring under the misapprehension that I am somehow anti-semitic.

 

Nope. Not only have you defended a rabidly anti-semitic rant, with the laughable qualification that it was about the supposedly world-controlling behaviour of 'A Jew'. You've also resorted to renaming a poster on here as 'Shylock', one of the most notorious Jew-hating stereotypes in literary history (although you seem to have ceased doing this, hopefully because you've finally been shamed out of it). Jew hating is a uniquely middle class pastime, and is often denied by the perpetrators.

 

And on the question of the denialism of the political (now Brexiteering) Right and its responsibility for the murderous and violent behaviour of the far Right, here's the way in which the Daily Mail scandalously covered the outcome of the Thomas Mair trial:

 

It uniquely among the nationals kept the story off the front page:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/24/daily-mail-jailing-jo-coxs-murderer-front-page

 

And on the inside pages it sneaked in a suggestion that Mair was driven to murder by immigrants and the actions of Jo Cox herself:

 

https://twitter.com/cglendinning95/status/801759166578774016

 

So as a staunch defender of anti-Semites, do tell whether you fellow-travel with this scumbaggery as well.

[OldNick]

It was the the right wing press and UKIP which convinced the working class that the EU and immigration was responsible for falling living standards and losing their jobs.

 

When in fact it was the Tory's choice to shrink the state with Austerity invest less in housing and training so that trained immigrants from the EU were blamed when they came to the UK.

 

The Tories could also have alleviated the problem if they had built more homes had not cancelled Labour's emergency local fund in area with large immigration and had made certain that incoming EU citizens were not paid less that UK born citizens

are you implying that left wingvoters don't have a mind of their own and so rely on the right wing media to make up their minds. A lot of the time the major broadcasters seem very left wing to me......funny old world

 

As I mentioned earlier in the thread that it is odd that now the election is over that the BBC etc are not reporting on the endless flow of refugees hitting Europe.

[aintforever]

It was the the right wing press and UKIP which convinced the working class that the EU and immigration was responsible for falling living standards and losing their jobs.

 

When in fact it was the Tory's choice to shrink the state with Austerity invest less in housing and training so that trained immigrants from the EU were blamed when they came to the UK.

 

The Tories could also have alleviated the problem if they had built more homes had not cancelled Labour's emergency local fund in area with large immigration and had made certain that incoming EU citizens were not paid less that UK born citizens

 

I know it must be comforting for you to make out all Brexiters are right wing but fact is it was the Labour heartlands that voted on mass to leave. You are just like those Labour MPs in Westminster - completely out of touch with the people you are supposedly standing up for.

[Wes Tender]

Nope. Not only have you defended a rabidly anti-semitic rant, with the laughable qualification that it was about the supposedly world-controlling behaviour of 'A Jew'. You've also resorted to renaming a poster on here as 'Shylock', one of the most notorious Jew-hating stereotypes in literary history (although you seem to have ceased doing this, hopefully because you've finally been shamed out of it). Jew hating is a uniquely middle class pastime, and is often denied by the perpetrators.

 

 

I have already told you that I am an admirer of the Jewish people and hold no great regard for the Arabs, so seemingly the opposite of the Labour Party. If you don't believe me, then tough titties, it doesn't bother me.

[shurlock]

I have already told you that I am an admirer of the Jewish people and hold no great regard for the Arabs, so seemingly the opposite of the Labour Party. If you don't believe me, then tough titties, it doesn't bother me.

 

Are some of your best friends Jewish too Les?

 

Must admit I find it opportunistic and morally dubious that you express your position by juxtaposing your alleged admiration for the Jewish people with your antipathy for Arabs. You don't do yourself any favours.

[aintforever]

What a surprise, Verbal's banging on about Jews again.

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

The argument about the absolute number/percentage of companies that export to EU is fallacious. What is fundamental is the value in terms of overall exports of those companies. The wealth and success of major exporters is vital to the wealth and success of many non-exporters, especially in the retail, catering and hospitality sectors. These sectors may not in themselves export but they do not exist in a bubble. Despite Wes’s seemingly to continually avoid the fact that that the value of UK exports to the EU is a major and essential part of our economy it is highly likely that many non-exporting business in these sectors will suffer a significant knock on effect from more difficult trading conditions for exporters ...

 

Resorting to this type of argument does remind one strongly of the old 'lies, damn lies, & statistics' saying. For example, I understand that - statistically speaking - the average Human Being has less than two legs. Employing that stat to suggest that we are a race of monopeds however would be somewhat misleading!

[Wes Tender]

I welcome the intervention into the post-Referendum political landscape of two ex-Prime ministers, Messrs Blair and Major. Their assistance to the Brexit cause is a valuable asset, especially Blair's. He is widely despised by the liberal left Remainians for taking us into the Iraq war, so support for him is compromised from the start with many of the very people he is trying to assist.

 

But what is breathtaking is the hypocrisy of both of them in citing democracy as the reason why the electorate should be granted a second referendum on the terms of our Brexit, once negotiations have been held with the EU. Blair had twice promised a referendum on the Treaty of Lisbon and failed to deliver it. Major was happy to deny us a referendum on the Treaty of Maastricht, which did more to change the basis of our association with Europe from the original Common Market towards a Federal EU. He was happy to deny the electorate a referendum when it involved closer integration into the European project, but now insists on another one when we choose to leave it, so it is a bit rich him bleating about democracy now.

 

Had either of them as Prime Minister allowed the referenda that ought to have been held at the times of those two significant Treaties, then we might not have ended up in this situation whereby a majority of the electorate who voted in this referendum had decided that we would be better off outside the EU.

[Sour Mash]

What a surprise, Verbal's banging on about Jews again.

 

Everyone is a racist or anti-semite in his world, the bloke is a lunatic.

[John B]

I know it must be comforting for you to make out all Brexiters are right wing but fact is it was the Labour heartlands that voted on mass to leave. You are just like those Labour MPs in Westminster - completely out of touch with the people you are supposedly standing up for.

 

You seem to be completely out of touch with reality as you did not understand what I wrote.

 

I spent lots of time canvassing prior to 2015 talking to thousands of electors but not before the Referendum because I left the Labour Party in July 2015 but I am not out of touch in any way.

 

 

Before 2015 there was of course concerns regarding immigration many of them based on misconceptions but there is no real solution because we need immigration as we have an ageing population and there is not much evidence that foreign workers take British jobs and they do pay their way and do jobs which many UK people do not want to do.

 

Perhaps if your read this you might be surprised

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/20/reality-check-are-eu-migrants-really-taking-british-jobs

 

The Tories could also have alleviated the problem if they had built more homes had not cancelled Labour's emergency local fund in area with large immigration and had made certain that incoming EU citizens were not paid less that UK born citizens if there was a problem.

 

They also could have done more to invest and to train young people.

 

But in times of austerity it is the immigrant who gets the blame

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

You seem to be completely out of touch with reality as you did not understand what I wrote.

 

I spent lots of time canvassing prior to 2015 talking to thousands of electors but not before the Referendum because I left the Labour Party in July 2015 but I am not out of touch in any way.

 

 

Before 2015 there was of course concerns regarding immigration many of them based on misconceptions but there is no real solution because we need immigration as we have an ageing population and there is not much evidence that foreign workers take British jobs and they do pay their way and do jobs which many UK people do not want to do.

 

Perhaps if your read this you might be surprised

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/20/reality-check-are-eu-migrants-really-taking-british-jobs

 

The Tories could also have alleviated the problem if they had built more homes had not cancelled Labour's emergency local fund in area with large immigration and had made certain that incoming EU citizens were not paid less that UK born citizens if there was a problem.

 

They also could have done more to invest and to train young people.

 

But in times of austerity it is the immigrant who gets the blame

 

I am not sure that you or others quite grasped the 'immigration' argument. Most would recognise the valuable contribution that migration makes to our society but the word 'unlimited' was what we disliked. We also recognised that there is a fundamental flaw in the EU 'freedom of movement' right. When wage levels were all relatively aligned the system worked but as the former Eastern Block countries have joined an inbalance has developed. When the minimal wage in one market is £1.50 and the other is £7.50 then obviously there will be a shift in people from one to the other. When this is 'unlimited' then people rightfully have concerns, especially as wages become diluted, hospitals queues lengthen and houses fill up. The way the EU addressed these concerns demonstrated not only their stubbornness but also how absurdly inflexible and dysfunctional this organisation is. The EU is flawed and inflexible.

[buctootim]

The Tories could also have alleviated the problem if they had built more homes

 

Thats really the crux of it. People blame immigration because they cant afford a decent place to live and so feel poor. Lack of house building and the fact that most existing housing stock is poor quality and too small are root problems. Build four million houses, not 50,000, and everyone could afford a good home at half the price and have massively more disposable income.

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

I see that UKIP has just decided to elect Al Murray's 'Pub Landlord' character as their new Führer.

 

I've always said that party is going somewhere ...

[buctootim]

I am not sure that you or others quite grasped the 'immigration' argument. Most would recognise the valuable contribution that migration makes to our society but the word 'unlimited' was what we disliked. We also recognised that there is a fundamental flaw in the EU 'freedom of movement' right. When wage levels were all relatively aligned the system worked but as the former Eastern Block countries have joined an inbalance has developed. When the minimal wage in one market is £1.50 and the other is £7.50 then obviously there will be a shift in people from one to the other. When this is 'unlimited' then people rightfully have concerns, especially as wages become diluted, hospitals queues lengthen and houses fill up. The way the EU addressed these concerns demonstrated not only their stubbornness but also how absurdly inflexible and dysfunctional this organisation is. The EU is flawed and inflexible.

 

Don't disagree with most of that. Yes the EU is flawed and inflexible and there is too much flow of labour due to differentials in wages between countries. That said what impacts does it really have? Why is the EU getting most of the blame when most of the immigration is coming from outside the EU? Why are EU migrants being accused of dragging down wages when their average income is higher the UK citizens? Why don't people focus on immigration from Bangladesh and Pakistan which is far more reliant on minimum wage jobs and benefits?

 

There are issues with the EU. However the idea that those issues are so big that the solution is to cut yourself off from the single market and passporting when your two biggest industries are international banking / insurance and car exporting is just bizarre.

[aintforever]

Thats really the crux of it. People blame immigration because they cant afford a decent place to live and so feel poor. Lack of house building and the fact that most existing housing stock is poor quality and too small are root problems. Build four million houses, not 50,000, and everyone could afford a good home at half the price and have massively more disposable income.

 

Yeah great Remainer solution, just build four million new homes, simple!

 

Fact is the current level of imigration is going to cause a housing problem, it's simple supply and demand. Great for people like me with a nice detached house and **** loads of equity, not so great for people on low wages trapped in rental.

[buctootim]

Yeah great Remainer solution, just build four million new homes, simple!

 

Fact is the current level of imigration is going to cause a housing problem, it's simple supply and demand. Great for people like me with a nice detached house and **** loads of equity, not so great for people on low wages trapped in rental.

 

Still missing the point. The housing crisis / shortage is down to many things, and migration from the EU is only fifth on the list. Deal first with the big issues - 1. People are living longer; 2. The average size of households is decreasing - there are fewer people per house than there used to be; 3. The UK birth rate is increasing; 4. Immigration from non EU countries. Fix those four first and you might have an excuse for Brexit.

[aintforever]

Still missing the point. The housing crisis / shortage is down to many things, and migration from the EU is only fifth on the list. Deal first with the big issues - 1. People are living longer; 2. The average size of households is decreasing - there are fewer people per house than there used to be; 3. The UK birth rate is increasing; 4. Immigration from non EU countries. Fix those four first and you might have an excuse for Brexit.

 

Given that you can't do anything about 1,2 and 3 and there are already controls on 4, best stop hundreds of thousands turning up from Europe then.

 

It's so easy to dismiss the problems caused by immigration if you are not directly effected. the more people try to make out that mass uncontrolled immigration doesn't effect housing prices the more the people effected want to say "**** you I'm out" regardless of the other negatives associated with Bexit. There is nothing worse than being ignored.

[Wes Tender]

Still missing the point. The housing crisis / shortage is down to many things, and migration from the EU is only fifth on the list. Deal first with the big issues - 1. People are living longer; 2. The average size of households is decreasing - there are fewer people per house than there used to be; 3. The UK birth rate is increasing; 4. Immigration from non EU countries. Fix those four first and you might have an excuse for Brexit.

 

We don't need an excuse for Brexit. It wasn't what we originally joined and the changes brought about by successive treaties are reason enough to leave. But instead of trying to address the problem of housing shortages which have been caused by uncontrolled immigration from the EU, your solution is to concrete over our countryside with 4 million extra houses. Brilliant.

[Wes Tender]

I see that UKIP has just decided to elect Al Murray's 'Pub Landlord' character as their new Führer.

 

I've always said that party is going somewhere ...

 

Godwin's Law

[buctootim]

We don't need an excuse for Brexit. It wasn't what we originally joined and the changes brought about by successive treaties are reason enough to leave. But instead of trying to address the problem of housing shortages which have been caused by uncontrolled immigration from the EU, your solution is to concrete over our countryside with 4 million extra houses. Brilliant.

 

1. The British birth rate exceeds the death rate by around 200,000 pa, meaning 200,000 additional Brits need to be housed each year. At an average size of 2.3 people per household that means a requirement for 87,000 new homes pa

2. The size of the average household declines by around 0.4% every year - creating a need for an additional 110,000 homes

3. Immigration from outside the EU is around 190,000 pa, requiring 82,600 additional homes pa

4. Immigration from the EU is around 180,000 pa but around 70,000 Brtis emigrate to the EU each year, so the nett is around 110,000, requiring around 48,000 additional homes

 

So there is a total need for 327,600 new homes pa of which only 48,000 are down to nett EU immigration. As usual your total ignorance of any facts means you've made a **** of yourself.

 

ps where was your house built - on a brownfield site or virgin fields / woodlands?

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

Godwin's Law

 

'tis just German for 'leader' don't you know.