Brexit - Post Match Reaction

[CB Fry]

If there is any attempt to wriggle out of the majority decision it will probably lead to the Left wing's worst nightmare. A UKIP majority government with the collapse of the Labour/Conservative/Liberal vote. 17.5m votes is about 4m more than Blair got in his best year landslide and 43% of the vote, no complaints then.

 

The Conservatives are probably only too aware of this and any backsliding is going to be wishful thinking on the part of those that don't believe in democracy.

 

It won't happen but if both the Tories and Labour new Leadership both went to the nation and both said - actually, no, we're staying in...The SNP and the Lib Dems already there. A sizable amount of the electorate already agree with that position.

 

How the frig would that result in a majority UKIP government?

 

It won't. They gained one whole seat in 2015. They'd get some seats buy not a majority. General elections aren't about one single issue.

[Wes Tender]

In the general election there were nearly 1.5m more votes for solid remain parties (not Labor or Tories) than for UKIP. If we accept that a proportion of Tories and Labor votes switch to UKIP in an in out general election it is very likely we would have a remain coalition as neither of these two would have a majority, and there is no chance of UKIP gaining anywhere near enough seats to be the largest party at best 20 -30. Labor will campaign for remain, what the Tories do is any ones guess but both main parties have real problems. With luck one good outcome of the referendum will be a long overdue realignment of party politics and the breaking of the out of date class based two party system.

 

Why are you switching from an argument about the voting in the European Elections (just about Europe) to an argument about voting in the GE, clouded by political alliances and other policy issues? I reiterate, they are not the same thing and parallels cannot be made convincingly.

[Johnny Bognor]

You may believe Lord Duckhunter is "out of touch with the majority of the country" is fact but alas it's just expressing an opinion. Maybe private tuition might be more appropriate?

 

LOL that would present an unfair advantage .... an opinion based upon unreliable opinion polls is of course an opinion worth having. Either that, or grasping at straws LOL

[Lord Duckhunter]

It won't happen but if both the Tories and Labour new Leadership both went to the nation and both said - actually, no, we're staying in...The SNP and the Lib Dems already there. A sizable amount of the electorate already agree with that position.

 

How the frig would that result in a majority UKIP government?

 

It won't. They gained one whole seat in 2015. They'd get some seats buy not a majority. General elections aren't about one single issue.

 

General elections aren't about one single issue , but a referendum is .

 

May will face Leadsom or Gove . The majority of Tories voted leave . To win any election May will have to commit to a timetable for withdrawal and will probarely have to rule out a general election . Contrary to popular belief on here, the Tory members are not stupid, they know full well the dangers of a Remainian somehow trying to fudge , delay or even overturn the will of the people . To win May will have to box herself in . There will be no general election prior to May '20 . No chance .

[CB Fry]

General elections aren't about one single issue , but a referendum is .

 

May will face Leadsom or Gove . The majority of Tories voted leave . To win any election May will have to commit to a timetable for withdrawal and will probarely have to rule out a general election . Contrary to popular belief on here, the Tory members are not stupid, they know full well the dangers of a Remainian somehow trying to fudge , delay or even overturn the will of the people . To win May will have to box herself in . There will be no general election prior to May '20 . No chance .

And she will. May was the softest of soft remainers anyway.

 

Anyway, a Brexit negotiation lead by a Remain Prime Minister seems like a reasonable approximation of the will of the people to me.

[aintforever]

General elections aren't about one single issue , but a referendum is .

 

May will face Leadsom or Gove . The majority of Tories voted leave . To win any election May will have to commit to a timetable for withdrawal and will probarely have to rule out a general election . Contrary to popular belief on here, the Tory members are not stupid, they know full well the dangers of a Remainian somehow trying to fudge , delay or even overturn the will of the people . To win May will have to box herself in . There will be no general election prior to May '20 . No chance .

 

I would agree with that if there wasn't the problem with the potential break-up of the UK once we leave. Not many Tories would want that IMO.

[Verbal]

Some snippets from the news in the last day or so:

 

Sparsely reported in the UK media yesterday, the London Stock Exchange merged with the German Borse.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/05/business/dealbook/lse-deutsche-borse-shareholders-merger.html?action=click&contentCollection=opinion&module=NextInCollection&region=Footer&pgtype=article&version=newsevent&rref=collection%2Fnews-event%2Fbritain-brexit-european-union

 

This will be hedged around about who's based where, to play up the 'chaos of exit' line. But the underlying message is a strengthening of a core UK/EU economic activity that's far better served with the UK in the EU.

 

And this from the Austrian finance minister:

 

Britain will remain a member of the EU in the future. In five years, there will still be 28 member states. When you look at all of those [companies] who want to move to the EU, it’s a wake-up call for Britain not to leave in the end.

 

Brown's Euro fudge seems to be the model for the way to go. Announce five 'conditions' that simply can't be met to ensure the 'best deal from Britain', and then just wait. McDonnell has already done a pastiche of this, with his 'we must respect the decision' speech, in which he set out five 'guidelines' that won't be achieved:

 

Freedom of trade for UK businesses with the EU and for EU businesses with the UK, protection of residency rights for EU citizens living in the UK, and UK citizens living elsewhere in Europe, existing protections at work, the UK's role in the European Investment Bank and the rights of UK financial services to win business across the EU to be maintained.

 

Expect the Tories to have their own 'conditions' soon - certainly minus protection of workers' rights, and probably participation in EIB too.

 

We never finally said we wouldn't join the Euro. The idea just withered and died, as it was clear Britain would get nowhere near Brown's 'conditions'.

 

Also: watch what happens to the Swiss in the next few months because it’ll be a dry run for what will happen to the UK should we ever be foolish enough to actually venture down this route. In 2014, a Swiss referendum voted with a majority of less than a single percentage point to renegotiate freedom of movement as part of their agreement of access to the EU’s internal market. After all this time negotiating, the Swiss have got precisely nowhere, and, after the UK referendum, have just been re-warned by the EU that they won’t ever get a deal that means cherry picking on one of the ‘four freedoms’. A disorganised exit of the Swiss from the internal market beckons in February 2017, with all the disastrous consequences that entails. (I suggest that this is what Theresa May and others are thinking about when they say they won’t press the Article 50 nuclear button until early next year).

 

And finally, government lawyers have just concluded that triggering Article 50 doesn’t require parliamentary assent, but can be done by cabinet or simply prime ministerial decision. However, the conditional repeal of the 1972 European Communities Act does (obviously) require a decision by parliament. That is, a predominantly Remain-majority parliament.

 

To all you 'kippers wot dun it', I'm just reporting direction of travel – this isn’t about what should or shouldn’t happen but about what is or is not happening. Instead of responding with the usual hysterical bleating, please do feel free to post evidence of any counter-indications….

[derry]

It won't happen but if both the Tories and Labour new Leadership both went to the nation and both said - actually, no, we're staying in...The SNP and the Lib Dems already there. A sizable amount of the electorate already agree with that position.

 

How the frig would that result in a majority UKIP government?

 

It won't. They gained one whole seat in 2015. They'd get some seats buy not a majority. General elections aren't about one single issue.

 

Because virtually all those that voted leave would be disenfranchised and would react on mass against the established parties that they previously supported. That would lose the established parties a massive number of voters who would place their vote in the only place possible, UKIP. The established parties know that the game is up and they can't afford to lose the votes. The remain vote will be for it's traditional parties so would be split. It won't happen as we are coming out. Once the Eurosceptic grassroots Conservatives vote, the party leader will probably be Andrea Leadsome despite Theresa May's support amongst the mainly pro EU Parliamentary party as she hasn't got that level of support outside.

[John B]

Because virtually all those that voted leave would be disenfranchised and would react on mass against the established parties that they previously supported. That would lose the established parties a massive number of voters who would place their vote in the only place possible, UKIP. The established parties know that the game is up and they can't afford to lose the votes. The remain vote will be for it's traditional parties so would be split. It won't happen as we are coming out. Once the Eurosceptic grassroots Conservatives vote, the party leader will probably be Andrea Leadsome despite Theresa May's support amongst the mainly pro EU Parliamentary party as she hasn't got that level of support outside.

 

Probably May voters will vote for Gove in the second round to get Gove into second place.

 

But that said Leadsome is an awful candidate for PM

[Lord Duckhunter]

And she will. May was the softest of soft remainers anyway.

 

Anyway, a Brexit negotiation lead by a Remain Prime Minister seems like a reasonable approximation of the will of the people to me.

 

 

Provided her chancellor and foreign sec are leavers I could live with May , especially if she gives Gideon the bullet . This is where Cameron blew it, Wilson recommended staying in but generally stayed out of the dirty stuff and remained aloof from the battle . He would not have had to resign if he lost , whereas Cameron got so personally involved that he couldn't stay . Had Cameron done a may , made his recommendation but left the campaigning to Gideon & Labour , he would not have had to go, and who knows may even have won .

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

Away from the customery internecine squabbling on here and back to what really matters.

 

Amid all the poliical chaos in Westminster a second Scottish Independance referendum is now a racing certainly, with potentially profound consequences for everyone living in these islands. I see that Sterling has just hit a 31 year low vis a vis the US Dollar. The UK's credit rating has been downgraded. The Bank of England has been forced into taking emergency action to prop up our banking system. The Chancellor of the Exchequer has signalled that the government will soon have to more or less adandon its entire economic policy in order to try and head-off a coming recession - what our national debt and inflation rate are going to look like in five years time God only knows. The police report that levels of racist abuse directed at foreign adults and young children (sometimes even black British citizens) have increased. Furthermore, clear signs are already starting to emerge that planed investment projects in the UK have been cancelled or at the very least deferred.

 

Something tells be that had all this stuff been predicted two weeks before the referendum then it would have been glibly dismissed as just more examples of the despicable "Project Fear" in action. Two weeks after the referendum however and it is not quite so easy to bury your head in the sand and ignore is it?

[Batman]

Away from the customery internecine squabbling on here and back to what really matters.

 

Amid all the poliical chaos in Westminster a second Scottish Independance referendum is now a racing certainly, with potentially profound consequences for everyone living in these islands. I see that Sterling has just hit a 31 year low vis a vis the US Dollar. The UK's credit rating has been downgraded. The Bank of England has been forced into taking emergency action to prop up our banking system. The Chancellor of the Exchequer has signalled that the government will soon have to more or less adandon its entire economic policy in order to try and head-off a coming recession - what our national debt and inflation rate are going to look like in five years time God only knows. The police report that levels of racist abuse directed at foreign adults and young children (sometimes even black British citizens) have increased. Furthermore, clear signs are already starting to emerge that planed investment projects in the UK have been cancelled or at the very least deferred.

 

Something tells be that had all this stuff been predicted two weeks before the referendum then it would have been glibly dismissed as just more examples of the despicable "Project Fear" in action. Two weeks after the referendum however and it is not quite so easy to bury your head in the sand and ignore is it?

 

still waiting for this immediate emergency budget

 

 

seriously, as I wake up today, nothing has changed for the worse. until I watch the pantomime of London politics on the telly, then you would think it would be too dangerous to leave the house

 

We will leave the EU and despite the BBC, SKY, Labour, Liberals etc telling us of immediate doom, in the real world, life goes on

 

 

Edited 6 July, 2016 by Batman

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

still waiting for this immediate emergency budget

 

 

seriously, as I wake up today, nothing has changed for the worse. until I watch the pantomime of London politics on the telly, then you would think it would be too dangerous to leave the house

 

We will leave the EU and despite the BBC, SKY, Labour, Liberals etc telling us of immediate doom, in the real world, life goes on

 

^ This post is akin to jumping off the top of the Empire State Building and claiming that the experience is a painless one. Painless until you hit the ground that is.

[Lord Duckhunter]

**** me some people wet their pants at the slightest bit of turbulence. The £ will soon be back where it was against the € as Europe is broken . Anybody who believes that Gideon was ever going to run a surplus probably still believes in father Xmas . It was never going to happen, he's just used Brexit as an excuse, look at his record . Any slowdown in the housing market will be more to do with Gideons ill conceived property tax rises than any Brexit . Provided Gideon and Carny are moved on and some competent replacements brought nobody will notice much difference. Gideon has been a smoke & mirrors Chancellor, talking a good game whilst doing **** all to fix the economy. He's missed pretty much every target , messed up pretty much every budget , has basically followed Darlings plan, yet tries to claim the rebalanced the economy , fixed the roof whilst the sun shines and other such nonsense . We havent had anything like the austerity needed , are still overspending and now you remain mugs are going to let him blame it all on Brexit . Open your eyes.

[CB Fry]

still waiting for this immediate emergency budget

 

 

seriously, as I wake up today, nothing has changed for the worse. until I watch the pantomime of London politics on the telly, then you would think it would be too dangerous to leave the house

 

We will leave the EU and despite the BBC, SKY, Labour, Liberals etc telling us of immediate doom, in the real world, life goes on

 

 

 

If we'd stayed in, or if Osborne had announced an Emergency Budget on the Friday after, wouldn't you still be waking up today with nothing changed?

[John B]

**** me some people wet their pants at the slightest bit of turbulence. The £ will soon be back where it was against the € as Europe is broken . Anybody who believes that Gideon was ever going to run a surplus probably still believes in father Xmas . It was never going to happen, he's just used Brexit as an excuse, look at his record . Any slowdown in the housing market will be more to do with Gideons ill conceived property tax rises than any Brexit . Provided Gideon and Carny are moved on and some competent replacements brought nobody will notice much difference. Gideon has been a smoke & mirrors Chancellor, talking a good game whilst doing **** all to fix the economy. He's missed pretty much every target , messed up pretty much every budget , has basically followed Darlings plan, yet tries to claim the rebalanced the economy , fixed the roof whilst the sun shines and other such nonsense . We havent had anything like the austerity needed , are still overspending and now you remain mugs are going to let him blame it all on Brexit . Open your eyes.

 

Yes for once I agree with you Osborne was an extremely poor Chancellor causing suffering to millions who voted for LEAVE whilst making the Super Rich even more Super Rich.

 

The Super Rich have so much money squirreled away which is not being invested to give people jobs so that the future is not good it would have been better to give much of this money to you and me who would spend it increasing GDP production and productivity instead of lieing in a bank receiving only a little interest.

 

We never needed austerity we needed investment and a huge effort to get in the taxes we should have received from companies and individuals who avoided them and taxes on bonuses from the bankers who caused the Global Crash.

 

Osborne did not follow Darling's Plan he did meet the figures set out by Darling who would have invested more in infrastructure and housing so the economy would be in a better shape now as currently it seems to be based on foreign investment in property and personal debt.

 

However BREXIT has caused uncertainty as economic figures show with our economy slowing and growth cut so coupled with your comments on the poor state of the economy because of Osborne we are not in a good shape.

 

But BREXIT is the straw that broke the camel's back which has seen the pound drop from $1.60 or so to $1.27 and the serious reduction in UK and foreign investment

 

This will ultimately lead to inflation more unemployment and less disposable income.

 

We only joined the EU because of its economic advantages in the 1970s so we will be left with economic disadvantages when we leave.

 

Some people and companies will of course flourish in the new order but unfortunately most will not

 

Perhaps we will now adopt Ed Balls economic plan for growth and equality as Osbornes plans are consigned to the dustbin of incompetence and history

 

 

Of course the finances have every chance of improving

 

Yes he will blame Brexit for his failings

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

**** me some people wet their pants at the slightest bit of turbulence. The £ will soon be back where it was against the € as Europe is broken . Anybody who believes that Gideon was ever going to run a surplus probably still believes in father Xmas . It was never going to happen, he's just used Brexit as an excuse, look at his record . Any slowdown in the housing market will be more to do with Gideons ill conceived property tax rises than any Brexit . Provided Gideon and Carny are moved on and some competent replacements brought nobody will notice much difference. Gideon has been a smoke & mirrors Chancellor, talking a good game whilst doing **** all to fix the economy. He's missed pretty much every target , messed up pretty much every budget , has basically followed Darlings plan, yet tries to claim the rebalanced the economy , fixed the roof whilst the sun shines and other such nonsense . We havent had anything like the austerity needed , are still overspending and now you remain mugs are going to let him blame it all on Brexit . Open your eyes.

 

Please feel free to point out a single point in my post that is in any way factually incorrect or misleading. As for your blithe assumptions that everything be just fine, you will have to forgive me if I say that I don't find this kind of stuff at all reassuring.

 

The opinions of men such as Mark Carney on the hand are worth listening to I think.

Edited 6 July, 2016 by CHAPEL END CHARLIE

[Window Cleaner]

still waiting for this immediate emergency budget

 

 

 

 

Well I'm still waiting for someone to actually do something, anything at all really, apart from quit that is.

[moonraker]

still waiting for this immediate emergency budget

 

 

seriously, as I wake up today, nothing has changed for the worse. until I watch the pantomime of London politics on the telly, then you would think it would be too dangerous to leave the house

 

We will leave the EU and despite the BBC, SKY, Labour, Liberals etc telling us of immediate doom, in the real world, life goes on

 

 

 

This sounds like a Skate talking about their fan owned club, they to are economically illiterate, they to believe their history is sufficient to see them through, they to think they have got their club(country) back, they to are in denial, they to blame everyone else . Carry on thinking nothing has changed and while your doing that the rest of the world will get on with business as usual and we will become less and less important and loose influence. It wont happen today or tomorrow but one day you will wake up and think what the f**k happened.

[Batman]

Russian embassy in the UK tweeted this just now in response to the report

 

 

[Winnersaint]

We havent had anything like the austerity needed , are still overspending and now you remain mugs are going to let him blame it all on Brexit . Open your eyes.

 

Would be interesting to know what further austerity measures you think would help balance the books.

[JackanorySFC]

Yes for once I agree with you Osborne was an extremely poor Chancellor causing suffering to millions who voted for LEAVE whilst making the Super Rich even more Super Rich.

 

The Super Rich have so much money squirreled away which is not being invested to give people jobs so that the future is not good it would have been better to give much of this money to you and me who would spend it increasing GDP production and productivity instead of lieing in a bank receiving only a little interest.

 

We never needed austerity we needed investment and a huge effort to get in the taxes we should have received from companies and individuals who avoided them and taxes on bonuses from the bankers who caused the Global Crash.

 

Osborne did not follow Darling's Plan he did meet the figures set out by Darling who would have invested more in infrastructure and housing so the economy would be in a better shape now as currently it seems to be based on foreign investment in property and personal debt.

 

However BREXIT has caused uncertainty as economic figures show with our economy slowing and growth cut so coupled with your comments on the poor state of the economy because of Osborne we are not in a good shape.

 

But BREXIT is the straw that broke the camel's back which has seen the pound drop from $1.60 or so to $1.27 and the serious reduction in UK and foreign investment

 

This will ultimately lead to inflation more unemployment and less disposable income.

 

We only joined the EU because of its economic advantages in the 1970s so we will be left with economic disadvantages when we leave.

 

Some people and companies will of course flourish in the new order but unfortunately most will not

 

Perhaps we will now adopt Ed Balls economic plan for growth and equality as Osbornes plans are consigned to the dustbin of incompetence and history

 

 

Of course the finances have every chance of improving

 

Yes he will blame Brexit for his failings

 

Just scanned your response and had to bring you up on this point as it's completely incorrect. I sell a UK product to the US (primarily so , 80% of our marketed place anyway) have to keep a pretty close eye on FX markets. Before Brexit we were trading at approx $1.41/ $1.42 to the pound, haven't seen $1.60/ £1 for a couple of years! Anyway, I'm one of those that love a weak £ to the dollar. Helps my exports massively, turnover has rocketed in the last week :-)

 

Anyway, as you were - less bull**** and made up facts though please gents.

[buctootim]

I'm one of those that love a weak £ to the dollar. Helps my exports massively, turnover has rocketed in the last week :-).

 

What do you sell Jack and are you using the opportunity for more volume or higher margins? No big reason for asking, just interested.

[Lord Duckhunter]

Would be interesting to know what further austerity measures you think would help balance the books.

 

"Further" , we've hardly had any austerity at all . I wouldn't have ring fenced any departments , therefore we could cut foreign aid . The pension triple lock is going to cost us a fortune . We should stop subsidising big business with tax credits , it depresses wages . We are still not living within our means despite growth in the economy . Osborne has been wrong time and time again, starting from promising to match labours spending plans when in opposition . We needed a proper Tory government not a new labour lite one . There will always be boom & bust and there will always be recessions Brexit or not . We didn't tighten fiscal policy enough , therefore we're not going to be able to lossen it when we get a slow down . He's done exactly what he accused labour of doing .

[Verbal]

More news from your direction-of-travel correspondent…

 

Very little reporting was given to yesterday’s speech by Oliver Letwin. Letwin, unknown to most I suspect, is the government minister in charge of the Brexit negotiating strategy.

 

I say strategy, but I mean codsbo11ox. He, and the Cabinet Office that he heads, are preparing – in his words – a “fine-grained, multi-dimensional” paper on Britain’s negotiating positions and options once the nuclear Article 50 button is pushed.

 

Of course, WTF “fine-grained, multi-dimensional” actually means is anyone’s guess. But as one of those dimensions, post- Einstein, is time, I’m supposing he’s going to exploring that one extensively.

 

That Letwin has anything at all to do with Brexit negotiations is something deserving of a feature-length film of Yes Prime Minister.

 

Logically, the UK government’s Brexit positions would have been under the direct control of the intellectual whippets of the Treasury and/or the Foreign Office. These two ministries also happen to be the bureaucratic powerhouses of the British state.

 

But no, the ministry in charge is one that’s generally viewed as career death for anyone seconded there – the Cabinet Office. Its – and Letwin’s – last great non-achievement was the Sovereignty Bill. Remember that? No, me neither.

 

Either this was Cameron’s quite clever decision, or one dreamed up by one of his Sir Humphrys. And there’s an interesting contrast between the Bank of England’s rigorous modelling of the implications of a Brexit vote and the complete absence of planning by the government. The upshot is basically that Mark Carney – a migrant by the way, and one of those damnable ‘experts’ – is presently running the country single-handedly, trying to mitigate numerous disasters as they begin to unfold. Letwin, meanwhile, is exploring other dimensions. Brexit is now officially in outer space.

[shurlock]

Just scanned your response and had to bring you up on this point as it's completely incorrect. I sell a UK product to the US (primarily so , 80% of our marketed place anyway) have to keep a pretty close eye on FX markets. Before Brexit we were trading at approx $1.41/ $1.42 to the pound, haven't seen $1.60/ £1 for a couple of years! Anyway, I'm one of those that love a weak £ to the dollar. Helps my exports massively, turnover has rocketed in the last week :-)

 

Anyway, as you were - less bull**** and made up facts though please gents.

 

Depends what you're exporting - as the UK specialises in high value-added manufacturing and service exports, exports tend to be demand sensitive rather than price sensitive, so are less affected by a cheaper currency. Indeed, any benefits might be offset by Brexit uncertainty that is likely to hurt European demand. Many exporters are also reliant on parts and components from other countries, so may see import costs rise.

[shurlock]

More news from your direction-of-travel correspondent…

 

Very little reporting was given to yesterday’s speech by Oliver Letwin. Letwin, unknown to most I suspect, is the government minister in charge of the Brexit negotiating strategy.

 

I say strategy, but I mean codsbo11ox. He, and the Cabinet Office that he heads, are preparing – in his words – a “fine-grained, multi-dimensional” paper on Britain’s negotiating positions and options once the nuclear Article 50 button is pushed.

 

Of course, WTF “fine-grained, multi-dimensional” actually means is anyone’s guess. But as one of those dimensions, post- Einstein, is time, I’m supposing he’s going to exploring that one extensively.

 

That Letwin has anything at all to do with Brexit negotiations is something deserving of a feature-length film of Yes Prime Minister.

 

Logically, the UK government’s Brexit positions would have been under the direct control of the intellectual whippets of the Treasury and/or the Foreign Office. These two ministries also happen to be the bureaucratic powerhouses of the British state.

 

But no, the ministry in charge is one that’s generally viewed as career death for anyone seconded there – the Cabinet Office. Its – and Letwin’s – last great non-achievement was the Sovereignty Bill. Remember that? No, me neither.

 

Either this was Cameron’s quite clever decision, or one dreamed up by one of his Sir Humphrys. And there’s an interesting contrast between the Bank of England’s rigorous modelling of the implications of a Brexit vote and the complete absence of planning by the government. The upshot is basically that Mark Carney – a migrant by the way, and one of those damnable ‘experts’ – is presently running the country single-handedly, trying to mitigate numerous disasters as they begin to unfold. Letwin, meanwhile, is exploring other dimensions. Brexit is now officially in outer space.

 

Cabinet Office = career death? Nonsense.

[moonraker]

More news from your direction-of-travel correspondent…

 

Very little reporting was given to yesterday’s speech by Oliver Letwin. Letwin, unknown to most I suspect, is the government minister in charge of the Brexit negotiating strategy.

 

I say strategy, but I mean codsbo11ox. He, and the Cabinet Office that he heads, are preparing – in his words – a “fine-grained, multi-dimensional” paper on Britain’s negotiating positions and options once the nuclear Article 50 button is pushed.

 

Of course, WTF “fine-grained, multi-dimensional” actually means is anyone’s guess. But as one of those dimensions, post- Einstein, is time, I’m supposing he’s going to exploring that one extensively.

 

That Letwin has anything at all to do with Brexit negotiations is something deserving of a feature-length film of Yes Prime Minister.

 

Logically, the UK government’s Brexit positions would have been under the direct control of the intellectual whippets of the Treasury and/or the Foreign Office. These two ministries also happen to be the bureaucratic powerhouses of the British state.

 

But no, the ministry in charge is one that’s generally viewed as career death for anyone seconded there – the Cabinet Office. Its – and Letwin’s – last great non-achievement was the Sovereignty Bill. Remember that? No, me neither.

 

Either this was Cameron’s quite clever decision, or one dreamed up by one of his Sir Humphrys. And there’s an interesting contrast between the Bank of England’s rigorous modelling of the implications of a Brexit vote and the complete absence of planning by the government. The upshot is basically that Mark Carney – a migrant by the way, and one of those damnable ‘experts’ – is presently running the country single-handedly, trying to mitigate numerous disasters as they begin to unfold. Letwin, meanwhile, is exploring other dimensions. Brexit is now officially in outer space.

 

Thats what you get when a one dimensional argument succeeds.

[John B]

Just scanned your response and had to bring you up on this point as it's completely incorrect. I sell a UK product to the US (primarily so , 80% of our marketed place anyway) have to keep a pretty close eye on FX markets. Before Brexit we were trading at approx $1.41/ $1.42 to the pound, haven't seen $1.60/ £1 for a couple of years! Anyway, I'm one of those that love a weak £ to the dollar. Helps my exports massively, turnover has rocketed in the last week :-)

 

Anyway, as you were - less bull**** and made up facts though please gents.

 

Sorry I meant $1.50 not made up because I consulted http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GBPUSD:CUR although in November I sold a book to the USA via GBP Direct Deposit Ex. Rate: 1.5292)

 

Still a significant fall but as you say good for some but not for the majority as holidays imported food and goods will go up so might oil but the price of that is going

 

 

down because of the economic down turn

[OldNick]

Yes for once I agree with you Osborne was an extremely poor Chancellor causing suffering to millions who voted for LEAVE whilst making the Super Rich even more Super Rich.

 

The Super Rich have so much money squirreled away which is not being invested to give people jobs so that the future is not good it would have been better to give much of this money to you and me who would spend it increasing GDP production and productivity instead of lieing in a bank receiving only a little interest.

 

We never needed austerity we needed investment and a huge effort to get in the taxes we should have received from companies and individuals who avoided them and taxes on bonuses from the bankers who caused the Global Crash.

 

Osborne did not follow Darling's Plan he did meet the figures set out by Darling who would have invested more in infrastructure and housing so the economy would be in a better shape now as currently it seems to be based on foreign investment in property and personal debt.

 

However BREXIT has caused uncertainty as economic figures show with our economy slowing and growth cut so coupled with your comments on the poor state of the economy because of Osborne we are not in a good shape.

 

But BREXIT is the straw that broke the camel's back which has seen the pound drop from $1.60 or so to $1.27 and the serious reduction in UK and foreign investment

 

This will ultimately lead to inflation more unemployment and less disposable income.

 

We only joined the EU because of its economic advantages in the 1970s so we will be left with economic disadvantages when we leave.

 

Some people and companies will of course flourish in the new order but unfortunately most will not

 

Perhaps we will now adopt Ed Balls economic plan for growth and equality as Osbornes plans are consigned to the dustbin of incompetence and history

 

 

Of course the finances have every chance of improving

 

Yes he will blame Brexit for his failings

Personally I think Osbourne has done a decent job as well as Carney. They have tried to steady the ship in the face of quite some turbulent winds.

[Wes Tender]

Personally I think Osbourne has done a decent job as well as Carney. They have tried to steady the ship in the face of quite some turbulent winds.

 

Osborne was a complete disgrace during the Referendum campaign and I hope that he is removed from Ministerial office as soon as the Leadership election is settled. At least Cameron had the decency to resign after the part he played. As others have said, had he taken a back seat in the campaign, much as Theresa May did, then there would be no reason for him to have resigned, although given his failure to gain anything worthwhile in the pre-referendum negotiations with the EU, one wouldn't have wanted him anywhere near the post-Brexit negotiations

[JackanorySFC]

What do you sell Jack and are you using the opportunity for more volume or higher margins? No big reason for asking, just interested.

 

What I do falls under the services sector. I run a web analytics business that also creates content, manages email campaigns and links in different social media channels. Well aware I run the sort of business that if the Earth went into free fall and needed to start again my skills could be put on the back burner whilst the engineers, scientists and medical brains did their thing to get us back in business :-). However my partner and I still employ 7 people. 5 in the UK 2 in the US.

 

Most of our clients are in the US so as stated above do 80+% of business in US$ (as well as approx 15% GB£ and 5% EU€). I can only speak for ourselves but changing our trading model based on currency fluctuations is a slippery slope. I see what's happening now as a short term windfall that will almost certainly not last, over 12 months we will obviously do well and potentially use that revenue to take on more headcount but over a 3-5 year period I expect it to level out.

 

Fully appreciate manufacturing businesses that have to import parts are suffering, and prices of imported food/ goods/ services will go up leading to a potential rise in inflation.

 

No one truly knows what will happen. I have a pretty positive attitude towards things so just getting our heads down and working hard will get us through in a good way whatever happens.

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

Personally I think Osbourne has done a decent job as well as Carney. They have tried to steady the ship in the face of quite some turbulent winds.

 

Politically George Osborne has messed up almost every budget he has been responsible for - Indeed I can't remember any former Chancellor of Excequer (in my lifetime anyway) having to back-track over quite significant aspects of the budget plan quite as often as George Osborne has. This failure to judge the mood of his own MPs in the House of Commons, and the country generally, has proved to be deeply damaging to both his reputation and his future career prospects.

 

But with regard to the 'big picture' of how he has managed national macroeconomic policy then I for have never believed for one moment there was any real alternative to austerity given the dire circumstances he found on taking office. Neither nations nor individuals can spend their way out of debt however attractive the prospect may seem. For the record our national debt now measures a almost incomprehensible £1.6 TRILLION - or put another way around £24,900 for every man, women and child in the nation!

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/02/19/how-large-is-the-uks-national-debt-and-why-does-it-matter/

 

Indeed, recent speculation that the first post Bretix budget will signal the abandonment of any sustained attempt to bring this enormous level on indebtedness under control is deeply worrying given that the next recession may already be just over the horizon. If the international money markets ever refuse to fund our vast and growing level of debt anylonger then this country will soon find itself in a crisis of its own making the like of which we haven't seen since that dark day when Denis Healy had to go cap in hand to the IMF to bail us out all those years ago.

[OldNick]

Osborne was a complete disgrace during the Referendum campaign and I hope that he is removed from Ministerial office as soon as the Leadership election is settled. At least Cameron had the decency to resign after the part he played. As others have said, had he taken a back seat in the campaign, much as Theresa May did, then there would be no reason for him to have resigned, although given his failure to gain anything worthwhile in the pre-referendum negotiations with the EU, one wouldn't have wanted him anywhere near the post-Brexit negotiations

Surely the Chancellor should point out the dire consequences as hr saw it of our leaving. At this moment in time I think the Brexit is the most devastating event that has happened to our economy. I remember my father deriding Healy and co when we had the embarrassment of considering the IMF to bale us out in the 70's. We are either 5th or 6 th in the world regarding our economy, it would be interesting to know what we were when we first went in. Of course we didn't have the new major economies of China India and Russia at that time

[Whitey Grandad]

Surely the Chancellor should point out the dire consequences as hr saw it of our leaving. At this moment in time I think the Brexit is the most devastating event that has happened to our economy. I remember my father deriding Healy and co when we had the embarrassment of considering the IMF to bale us out in the 70's. We are either 5th or 6 th in the world regarding our economy, it would be interesting to know what we were when we first went in. Of course we didn't have the new major economies of China India and Russia at that time

 

Very difficult to compare economies historically because of the fluctuations in exchange rates but I found this:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angus_Maddison_statistics_of_the_ten_largest_economies_by_GDP_(PPP)

 

I seem to remember that we were vying for fourth with Italy of all countries for quite a time. As far as growth is concerned we have done comparatively very well since the start of the Single Market, in fact Britain has thrived. That will no longer be the case.

[buctootim]

We are either 5th or 6 th in the world regarding our economy, it would be interesting to know what we were when we first went in. Of course we didn't have the new major economies of China India and Russia at that time

We were 10th in 1975 and in freefall. I posted up some tables a few pages back showing we had the lowest growth rate of the G7 during our 'independent' years 1945-75 and the highest growth in the G7 during the EU years of 1975 - 2015

[derry]

Probably May voters will vote for Gove in the second round to get Gove into second place.

 

But that said Leadsome is an awful candidate for PM

 

The majority Eurosceptic grassroots Conservative voters would get that straight away and probably vote Gove in as a response. I'm sure May's campaign are frightened that anything like that would be held against her as she has a hard enough job winning a majority of the members as it stands.

[derry]

We were 10th in 1975 and in freefall. I posted up some tables a few pages back showing we had the lowest growth rate of the G7 during our 'independent' years 1945-75 and the highest growth in the G7 during the EU years of 1975 - 2015

 

The uncontrolled immigration lost the referendum along with, Human Rights and Sovereignty, not the economy that Remain banked on, because most people have been screwed for so long they didn't care and still don't.

[Whitey Grandad]

The uncontrolled immigration lost the referendum along with, Human Rights and Sovereignty, not the economy that Remain banked on, because most people have been screwed for so long they didn't care and still don't.

 

All very true but the have-nots don't appreciate that the high earners are paying the taxes that support their public services.

[Johnny Bognor]

We were 10th in 1975 and in freefall. I posted up some tables a few pages back showing we had the lowest growth rate of the G7 during our 'independent' years 1945-75 and the highest growth in the G7 during the EU years of 1975 - 2015

 

It's a bit simplistic to suggest that it was the EU that turned things around. After joining and towards the end of the 70's, when we went to the IMF with our begging bowl, Britain was on its knees. Manufacturing was in terminal decline and the unions were destroying the economy. I know I will get some flack for this, but thatchers reforms did more to turn our fortunes around than eec membership in the 80's. Had the unions not been challenged, the eec would not have been enough to turn things around.

 

After the recession at the end of the 80's along with membership of the ERM, british companies were forced to become more efficient. This laid the foundation for growth in the late 90's which was inherited and continued under blair and brown. The debt fueled boom of the naughties did as much for economic growth as the EU.

 

The EEC may have had 'some' positive effect, but to pretend is was the cure of all ills, is a bit naive. The big game changer in turning things round was thatcher, love her or hate her...

Edited 6 July, 2016 by Johnny Bognor

[ooh it's a corner]

Here's a thought.

 

We will end up with a new Prime Minister and almost certainly a new leader of the opposition. Assuming the new PM calls for a general election (not guaranteed, I know), what happens if the opposition make a campaign pledge NOT to leave the EU?

 

The mind boggles......

[harvey]

All very true but the have-nots don't appreciate that the high earners are paying the taxes that support their public services.

 

So basically what you're saying is that the 'have-nots' should be doffing their caps to the 'high earners' and have no say in the future of this country, and just be grateful they're alive and being supported by the 'elite'?

[buctootim]

It's a bit simplistic to suggest that it was the EU that turned things around. After joining and towards the end of the 70's, when we went to the IMF with our begging bowl, Britain was on its knees. Manufacturing was in terminal decline and the unions were destroying the economy. I know I will get some flack for this, but thatchers reforms did more to turn our fortunes around than eec membership in the 80's. Had the unions not been challenged, the eec would not have been enough to turn things around.

 

After the recession at the end of the 80's along with membership of the ERM, british companies were forced to become more efficient. This laid the foundation for growth in the late 90's which was inherited and continued under blair and brown. The debt fueled boom of the naughties did as much for economic growth as the EU.

 

The EEC may have had 'some' positive effect, but to pretend is was the cure of all ills, is a bit naive. The big game changer in turning things round was thatcher, love her or hate her...

 

Its not solely down to the EU, but neither is it nothing to do with the EU. Germany and Japan were building from smaller post war economic bases; Britain was crippled by debt, and Thatcher changed economic / industrial policy all had an effect. But going from sick man of Europe to leading economic growth after joining is not a coincidence. Some estimates put 10% of UK GDP down to the single market and EU social policy.

[Lord Duckhunter]

All this nonsense about the early 70's . It was right to join then an it's right to leave now . Had it remained The EEC and remained at under a dozen countries with similar GDP I doubt whether there would have been any thought of a referendum , let alone leaving

[John B]

All this nonsense about the early 70's . It was right to join then an it's right to leave now . Had it remained The EEC and remained at under a dozen countries with similar GDP I doubt whether there would have been any thought of a referendum , let alone leaving

 

Sorry but it is totally wrong to leave now economically you really have no idea what you are talking about

[Wes Tender]

Sorry but it is totally wrong to leave now economically you really have no idea what you are talking about

 

It is exactly the right time to leave when the EU has stagnated and the rest of the World is pushing ahead. LD is also totally right in his opinion that had the original core of similar countries remained as the only member states, then the entire situation would have been very different, and that there would be no reason to leave.

 

I note that you are another whose main tactic when confronted with an opinion you do not agree with is to just simply remark that the poster doesn't know what he is talkiong about.

[Whitey Grandad]

So basically what you're saying is that the 'have-nots' should be doffing their caps to the 'high earners' and have no say in the future of this country, and just be grateful they're alive and being supported by the 'elite'?

 

I said nothing of the sort, don't try and twist my words. Where did I say that they shouldn't have a say in anything?

 

We should all be grateful for the disproportionate contribution to the costs of society that is made by the 'high earners'.

[Whitey Grandad]

It is exactly the right time to leave when the EU has stagnated and the rest of the World is pushing ahead.

 

Even if the cost of leaving is so prohibitively high that it will take decades to recover, if we ever do?

[buctootim]

It is exactly the right time to leave when the EU has stagnated and the rest of the World is pushing ahead......I note that you are another whose main tactic when confronted with an opinion you do not agree with is to just simply remark that the poster doesn't know what he is talking about.

 

 

The EU is not stagnating - it has lower growth than developing countries because, erm, they are developing and their lower wage costs mean investment flows to them. When they reach the same level of development as the EU or US their growth will slow too. The only way to increase growth here would be to cut wages to developing world levels, which some on the right of the Tory party and UKIP would be happy to see. The fact you believe simply leaving will increase growth with no credible idea of why how or why that will happen leads us on to the point below.

 

You really have no idea what you are talking about on almost every subject. You appear to read little and what you do read is not objective fact but opinion from sources like the Express. Posters like Duckhunter have views mostly diametrically opposite to mine - but you can tell he has read critically and simply come to different conclusions. You - its just a vast cave of ignorance and an unwillingness to change your mind when faced with reality.

Edited 7 July, 2016 by buctootim

[John B]

It is exactly the right time to leave when the EU has stagnated and the rest of the World is pushing ahead. LD is also totally right in his opinion that had the original core of similar countries remained as the only member states, then the entire situation would have been very different, and that there would be no reason to leave.

 

I note that you are another whose main tactic when confronted with an opinion you do not agree with is to just simply remark that the poster doesn't know what he is talkiong about.

 

I find it very difficult replying to your post because lets face it you are not very reasonable and have little idea of economic facts where do you get the information from as it is plainly wrong you just have generalisations with nothing to back them up

 

I am not sure you can have an opinion on Economics without stating relevant verifiable information but we seem to be in an era of somebody‘s gut feeling being the truth based on no facts this hardly shows they know what they are talking about

 

The Eurozone is growing after its problems with Greece and the Global Banking crash

 

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/gdp-growth

 

The last quarter better than the UK

 

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-growth

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/apr/27/uk-gdp-growth-slows-to-04-amid-eu-referendum-uncertainty

 

Whilst Brazil is in recession

 

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/brazil/gdp-growth-annual

 

EUROZONE better than Canada

 

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/canada/gdp-growth

 

A lot better than Russia and Japan

 

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp-growth

 

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/japan/gdp-growth

 

But not as good as Australia

 

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/australia/gdp-growth

 

 

To leave the biggest market in the world with no credible plan with regard to trade investment and taxation is economic madness which is now obvious as the £ falls the FTSE250 falls UK GDP falls and investment funds are frozen as investors want to get out of sterling some times buying long term bonds at negative interest as they are very concerned about the long term future of the UK economy.

 

Why are the vast majority of Economic Organisations Economists Leaders of Countries Business Leaders and Trade Union Leaders say leaving the EU is a terrible decision with so many negative consequences

 

And if it was a good idea why are all the UK Political Parties not shouting it from the rooftops with great plans on how well the country will do outside the EU.

 

The Treasury obviously has made no plans for BREXIT because it is such a stupid idea economically.

 

Of course the economy will grow in the future but there will be serious problems along the way as most of the country will see their standard of living fall but never mind you Duck Hunter and Derry are happy and sod the rest of us.