Brexit - Post Match Reaction

[John B]

Do these Brexit illiterates include Lord Digby Jones & Melvyn King?

 

A falling pound was the shock that Britain’s ailing exporters desperately needed to halt their terminal decline. That’s the message repeated on an almost daily loop by economists for Brexit like the two you mention.

 

Now that sterling has lost almost a fifth of its value against the dollar and about 14% against the euro since the referendum, it follows that the EU referendum vote was the best thing that could happen to the economy and manufacturers have found the price of their goods abroad have dropped, making them more competitive. They just need to let the currency work for them, revving up production safe in the knowledge they can undercut their rivals.

 

It is a narrow economic argument that uses Germany’s exporting prowess as a template. This success is all about exporting upmarket cars, trucks and machine tools to China, Brazil and the Middle East.

 

German goods are well designed and reliable, of course. They also come with the added bonus of being priced using an artificially low rate of exchange gifted by the euro.

 

In theory once a relatively low exchange rate is established investors and businesses have a clear view of the better profit margins on offer from exports and will invest more in the latest machinery and industrial processes.

 

Britain needs good news from the future now that the immediate effects of a low pound are making life difficult for consumers. Import prices are rising and already feeding into shop prices. We’ve seen the signs: Apple added £500 to the cost of its latest MacBook Pros and Unilever’s prices, including for Marmite, leapt by more than 10% at Morrisons.

 

Consumer confidence surveys have dipped in the last month after a post referendum bounce and might deteriorate further should the two things people covet the most – the latest mobile phone and a new car – increase in cost once the currency hedges that keep prices stable run out. We import all the phones and a majority of the cars we buy, so prices are going to rise some time after Christmas, if not before.

 

Yet the chances of mimicking Germany are slim. Firstly, there is the currency itself. We have a floating exchange rate against the rest of the world, which means it goes down in the bad times and up in the good times. Why would a manufacturing company bet on the currency staying low when a recovery in the UK’s fortunes will send it back up again. Neither the Treasury, nor the Bank of England has expressed an appetite for managing the pound.

 

By the way what do you think about staying in the EU Customs Union which seems to be the option favoured by the Government for Nissan.

[Verbal]

So this is all going very well. It turns out the government DID promise a kind of selective customs union membership for Nissan (44% French owned, remember). And since Clark's interview yesterday, spilling some beans, it turns out that actually ALL UK car makers/assemblers will be able to keep their supply chains tariff-free. So the carmakers either have unfettered access to the customs union or the government will by its own promises have to compensate them to an unaffordable extent not seen since the 1970s.

 

But car making is just 3% of the economy. Bigger players, like the UK's big pharma industry, are now demanding the same deal. This has only one plausible outcome, if we exclude the possibility of absolutely crippling subsidy guarantees: the UK will have to remain in the customs union. (For the benefit of schmendriks, Lord T, the customs union is basically the rules of the original EEC - you know, the thing Thatcher approved of and voted for.)

 

Then we have even bigger players, like financial services - the biggest of all sectors, representing 15% of the economy. The demand for passporting rights will be next on the list, forcing the government to take a position on full access to the internal market. (For the benefit...the internal market was a Thatcherite initiative, to liberalise trade within the EU - hence the nebbish churlishness from Corbyn.)

 

Again: mazel tov!

[shurlock]

Really? The EU was effectively born via the Maastricht Treaty in 1993, when Eurosceptism began to find its feet. It might not have been an issue for you before 2012, but it was for many others since Maastricht.

 

Whooosshhhhh

[Wes Tender]

Whooosshhhhh

 

Is that the sound of your ego deflating?

[John B]

So the IMF and pretty much every man and his dog thought it overvalued, but an economist extraordinaire like you didnt?

 

Is running a balance of payments deficit good for the country in the long term??

 

Do you think we should have spending power now, to feed our lust for consumerism, at the expense of ****ing future generations over??

 

I dont think leaving the EU with a falling pound inflation and low growth is a solution to our balance of payment problems and consumer debt.

 

But of course you are right but these problems have not been addressed by the Tories in the last six years because of Osborne and his austerity let see what Hammond does

[OldNick]

The increase in the competitiveness of UK exports that will no doubt follow the near crash the pound has suffered recently is certainly one positive outcome for our economy - as far as it goes. Unfortunately the corollary of that situation is that inflation too is now set to rise - indeed this process has already started. This effect will of course hit the living standards of millions of your fellow citizens - not all of whom have some relatively vast 'pension pot' in prospect to soften the blow. When/if inflation starts to exceed wage growth yet again then most of us will experience a fall in our real standard of living. This effect too has long term adverse consequences for the cohesion of society.

 

Now if I was to believe everything that I read on here then I might well think (if I were sufficiently gullible that is) that this virtual 'crash' in the value of the post referendum Pound was a mere 'bagatelle' because the UKP had somehow become artificially 'overvalued' before the referendum and therefore the drastic fall in its value was a good thing! How convenient. Unfortunately that is a specious argument and the pound's former exchange rate was more a form of 'verdict' delivered by the foreign exchange markets on the - pre referendum - health and prospects of our economy. In reality any beneficial increase in our export trade may well be only a temporary effect and this will almost certainly not fully counteract the harm that increasing inflation will do to our economy. There was a reason why conquering the evil of excessive inflation (and for that matter attempting to reduce our huge national debt) were once seen as THE crucial objective of monetary policy. Okay, it is obviously true that currencies need to find a appropriate level that reflects the strength and weaknesses of the economies they represent, indeed the inability of the Euro to fully achieve that function is its undoing, but currency weakness is in the long run not a sign of a healthy economy.

 

Anyone who attempts to tell you differently is just another 'Snake Oil' salesman I'm afraid.

In the past rising inflation was met by a raising of interest rates. I wonder if that may add to the nonsense we are facing now.

 

A restranteur I was speaking to yesterday was bemoaning tha fact that he can see 35% price rises coming through from his suppliers.

 

Give it a year and I wonder if the nation will be pushing for a second vote. I caught a bit of the interview on BBC breakfast this morning and the chairman of WPP said something about a vote on Brexit, he worded it an unusual way.

 

The rabid Brexitters will always be rabid about it but IM sure like the remainers there are plenty in the middle ground and if there is some kind of resolution there may be somewhere instead of this madness into the unknown.

[sandwichsaint]

In the past rising inflation was met by a raising of interest rates. I wonder if that may add to the nonsense we are facing now.

 

A restranteur I was speaking to yesterday was bemoaning tha fact that he can see 35% price rises coming through from his suppliers.

 

Give it a year and I wonder if the nation will be pushing for a second vote. I caught a bit of the interview on BBC breakfast this morning and the chairman of WPP said something about a vote on Brexit, he worded it an unusual way.

 

The rabid Brexitters will always be rabid about it but IM sure like the remainers there are plenty in the middle ground and if there is some kind of resolution there may be somewhere instead of this madness into the unknown.

 

WPP?

[Johnny Bognor]

WPP?

Martin Sorrel. WPP is the world's leading ad agency. Martin is seen as a demi God in advertising and is a prominent remainer

 

Sent from my SM-G920F using Tapatalk

[sandwichsaint]

Martin Sorrel. WPP is the world's leading ad agency. Martin is seen as a demi God in advertising and is a prominent remainer

 

Sent from my SM-G920F using Tapatalk

 

Cheers.

[Verbal]

Now that Clark has inadvertently shown the government's hand, this article in the FT is a really interesting take on the revelation that a firm promise was made to Renault-Nissan - and now to all UK motor manufacturers - about tariff-free trading within the customs union. A key point is that the EU simply won't negotiate sector-by-sector access - just as it won't for the internal market - and the UK is either in or out of the customs union, which is the only way that tariff-free trading with the EU will happen.

 

But for those with the nous to see where this is really going, the important thing to pay attention to in the article is the term 'transitional period', which could be anything up to or even beyond a decade.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/cd0d2ad4-9d23-11e6-a6e4-8b8e77dd083a

 

The other enjoyable consequence of all this is that Fox no longer has a real job. We should have a sweepstake on which of the three Brexiter clowns will be the forest to resign. Fox is certainly emerging as a frontrunner...

[Guided Missile]

We should have a sweepstake on which of the three Brexiter clowns will be the forest to resign. Fox is certainly emerging as a frontrunner...

If we remain in the customs union, with the freedom of movement that the EU demands, my money is on the entire government being out of a job, by 2020.

[OldNick]

If we remain in the customs union, with the freedom of movement that the EU demands, my money is on the entire government being out of a job, by 2020.

Yep the Brexiters will be doing just nicely for Corbyn and his mob, give it another year and the folly of completely leaving the EU will be full in our faces.

Iam very happy with immigration but not unlimited, we need young people to come into our society to make up for the shortfall we have in our own population to keep the older generations cared for.

 

The costs to your business have ramped up and will do so more as costs feed through, this in turn will make our products dearer and so the advantage at present of the exchange rate will be eroded.

[John B]

If we remain in the customs union, with the freedom of movement that the EU demands, my money is on the entire government being out of a job, by 2020.

 

There is a considerable difference in the obligations and rights of a state under being a member of a customs union and being a member of an integrated internal market or at least having free access to it.

In a customs union there is no requirement to adhere to free movement of workers or comply with the markets regulations on product standards, however being in a customs union means that you cannot arrange and agree your own trade deals with countries that are not in the Customs Union, the reason for this is that if you could arrange your own trade deals, the UK could flood the EU markets with cheap exports that they originally imported from countries with whom they had arranged very favourable trade terms. The so called country of origin issue. A country benefits from being in this customs union by having tariff free trade on goods only not services.

[shurlock]

If we remain in the customs union, with the freedom of movement that the EU demands, my money is on the entire government being out of a job, by 2020.

 

 

As dopey Les might say, get your 'terminology' right.

[Wes Tender]

 

As dopey Les might say, get your 'terminology' right.

 

These sorts of errors are easy enough to make Shorluck as you should know, stumbling over the difference between Brexiteers and Eurosceptics

[buctootim]

These sorts of errors are easy enough to make Shorluck as you should know, stumbling over the difference between Brexiteers and Eurosceptics

 

Do tell Wes. How are these totally discrete groups?

[John B]

Do tell Wes. How are these totally discrete groups?

 

I agree with Wes and presumily Les that there are Eurosceptics and there are Brexiters

 

Brexiters are Eurosceptics too but not all Eurosceptics are Brexiters.

 

Some Eurosceptics realise that Brexit is an economic disaster in the EU but some Brexiters will eventually realise this too as the cost of petrol diesel foreign holidays Inflation Marmite and Unemployment rise.

 

 

I think staying in the EU customs zone is probably the best approach now but not sure how that affects and banking and services sectors.

[Wes Tender]

Do tell Wes. How are these totally discrete groups?

 

Dear me, I didn't expect you to be stumbling over the distinction between them. It really is quite simple and anybody who has followed the politics of the European project since Maastricht would know precisely what the difference was, apart from the considerable time span between the two groupings.

 

https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/eurosceptic

https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/brexiteer

 

John B knows the difference between them and I suspect most others on here do too, apart from you and Shorluck it seems.

[shurlock]

Dear me, I didn't expect you to be stumbling over the distinction between them. It really is quite simple and anybody who has followed the politics of the European project since Maastricht would know precisely what the difference was, apart from the considerable time span between the two groupings.

 

https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/eurosceptic

https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/brexiteer

 

John B knows the difference between them and I suspect most others on here do too, apart from you and Shorluck it seems.

 

 

So they're totally discrete groups? So you're one but not the other Les?

 

The point Les was very simple: I was using the grouping as shorthand as its a current term. Everyone understands the point being made. Indeed you've proven incapable of rebutting that point -unable to do so, you've opted for your standard, diversionary smoke and mirrors instead.

 

Also note the irony that you, Baldrick and LD have no trouble throwing around the term leftie when it suits you, even though there is far less consensus what it means.

 

It's fun watching you work pal: the hick from Hampshire who thinks hes Wittgenstein

Edited 1 November, 2016 by shurlock

[Wes Tender]

So they're totally discrete groups? So you're one but not the other Les?

 

The point Les was very simple: I was using the grouping as shorthand as its a current term. Everyone understands the point being made. Indeed you've proven incapable of rebutting that point -unable to do so, you've opted for your standard, diversionary smoke and mirrors instead.

 

Also note the irony that you, Baldrick and LD have no trouble throwing around the term leftie when it suits you, even though there is far less consensus what it means.

 

It's fun watching you work pal: the hick from Hampshire who thinks hes Wittgenstein

 

What's fun Shorluck, is watching you wriggle when you make a mistake and the more you try and excuse your faulty reasoning, the funnier it gets.

 

I used shorthand, blah, blah, everybody understands, blah, blah, smoke and mirrors, childish insult, blah, blah.:lol:

 

Think a little harder, I'm sure that you can get there if you try. Of course one can be a Eurosceptic who then becomes a Brexiteer. But if you cared to read John B's correct assessment, there are Eurosceptics who do not wish to leave the EU, so the two groupings are not interchangeable. It really isn't that difficult to understand.

[shurlock]

What's fun Shorluck, is watching you wriggle when you make a mistake and the more you try and excuse your faulty reasoning, the funnier it gets.

 

I used shorthand, blah, blah, everybody understands, blah, blah, smoke and mirrors, childish insult, blah, blah.:lol:

 

Think a little harder, I'm sure that you can get there if you try. Of course one can be a Eurosceptic who then becomes a Brexiteer. But if you cared to read John B's correct assessment, there are Eurosceptics who do not wish to leave the EU, so the two groupings are not interchangeable. It really isn't that difficult to understand.

 

You've moved the goalposts as usual- all it goes to demonstrate is that you've conceded on the point of substance. I can repeat it for you but given youre likely to avoid answering it (once again), there isn't much point, is there?

 

And what's with the multiple lols- you OK pal? Calm down, take a deep breath and try not to think of the Rothschilds.

Edited 1 November, 2016 by shurlock

[Wes Tender]

You've moved the goalposts as usual- all it goes to demonstrate is that you've conceded on the point of substance. I can repeat it for you but given youre likely to avoid answering it (once again), there isn't much point, is there?

 

And what's with the multiple lols- you OK pal? Calm down, take a deep breath and try not to think of the Rothschilds.

 

Stop it! Before I split my sides.

 

Go on, be a sport, pretty please. Explain once more how Eurosceptics and Brexiteers are the same thing.

 

Read the dictionary definitions once again. It really wasn't that complicated to see the differences between them.

 

I'm absolutely fine, thanks for your concern. I sense you're getting a bit perplexed though, massaging your hurt ego by claiming to have won the argument.

[shurlock]

Stop it! Before I split my sides.

 

Go on, be a sport, pretty please. Explain once more how Eurosceptics and Brexiteers are the same thing.

 

Read the dictionary definitions once again. It really wasn't that complicated to see the differences between them.

 

I'm absolutely fine, thanks for your concern. I sense you're getting a bit perplexed though, massaging your hurt ego by claiming to have won the argument.

 

That was not the original point - keep up Les - difficult as that maybe for you as you vainly deflect and make things up on the fly. The main point is that many Brexiters have been historically opposed to state intervention and industrial policy, so it's ironic to see them now championing it in the service of promoting trade with Europe. You asked for examples - I gave them to you and then you went all quiet (not the first time). Speaks volumes pal.

[Johnny Bognor]

Also note the irony that you, Baldrick and LD have no trouble throwing around the term leftie when it suits you, even though there is far less consensus what it means.

 

I would have thought it was pretty obvious. Someone with left wing / socialist views, but not as extreme as a commie. HTH

[shurlock]

I would have thought it was pretty obvious. Someone with left wing / socialist views, but not as extreme as a commie. HTH

 

Nope: that's even less clear I'm afraid. You've simply replaced one definitional can of worms with an even larger can. Well played.

 

Rather given your indiscriminate use of the term on this thread, it appears applied to anyone who disagrees with you. That's not particularly edifying or illuminating, is it pal.

Edited 1 November, 2016 by shurlock

[Wes Tender]

That was not the original point - keep up Les - difficult as that maybe for you as you vainly deflect and make things up on the fly. The main point is that many Brexiters have been historically opposed to state intervention and industrial policy, so it's ironic to see them now championing it in the service of promoting trade with Europe. You asked for examples - I gave them to you and then you went all quiet (not the first time). Speaks volumes pal.

 

I'll try it one more time Shorluck. Some people who have recently become known as Brexiteers might have in the past opposed state intervention and industrial policy. If at the time they were opposed to the direction that the European project was headed post-Maastricht, they were known as Eurosceptics. Although many Eurosceptics have subsequently become Brexiteers, many have not and wish to remain in the EU, therefore Brexiteers and Eurosceptics are not the same thing.

 

As you're going back to the original post I challenged, I also note that you haven't defended your assertion that Nissan has made it clear that the UK is valuable only insofar as its trading relationship with the EU is preserved. There are no other reasons, eh? I asked at the time whether the fact that Sunderland is one of their most productive and innovative plants and that they sell more to the UK than to any other EU country might have had any bearing on their decision? What do you think?

[shurlock]

I'll try it one more time Shorluck. Some people who have recently become known as Brexiteers might have in the past opposed state intervention and industrial policy. If at the time they were opposed to the direction that the European project was headed post-Maastricht, they were known as Eurosceptics. Although many Eurosceptics have subsequently become Brexiteers, many have not and wish to remain in the EU, therefore Brexiteers and Eurosceptics are not the same thing.

 

As you're going back to the original post I challenged, I also note that you haven't defended your assertion that Nissan has made it clear that the UK is valuable only insofar as its trading relationship with the EU is preserved. There are no other reasons, eh? I asked at the time whether the fact that Sunderland is one of their most productive and innovative plants and that they sell more to the UK than to any other EU country might have had any bearing on their decision? What do you think?

 

Les did I say Brexiters and Eurosceptics were the same thing? I dont even have to enter a definitional discussion to make my point. It is only necessary to show, as a matter of fact, that many Brexiters have also historically held Eurosceptic views. If that is the case, it is perfectly appropriate to label them Brexiters as they belong to both Brexit and Eurosceptic groupings, regardless of the definitional differences.

 

Simple logic - not quite your forte, old Les.

Edited 1 November, 2016 by shurlock

[Bath Saint]

So they're totally discrete groups? So you're one but not the other Les?

 

The point Les was very simple: I was using the grouping as shorthand as its a current term. Everyone understands the point being made. Indeed you've proven incapable of rebutting that point -unable to do so, you've opted for your standard, diversionary smoke and mirrors instead.

 

Also note the irony that you, Baldrick and LD have no trouble throwing around the term leftie when it suits you, even though there is far less consensus what it means.

 

It's fun watching you work pal: the hick from Hampshire who thinks hes Wittgenstein

I wonder how often Wittgenstein gets invoked in discussions of any kind on football forums.

[Verbal]

I wonder how often Wittgenstein gets invoked in discussions of any kind on football forums.

 

This is the lounge. It only has a family resemblance to a football forum.

[buctootim]

I wonder how often Wittgenstein gets invoked in discussions of any kind on football forums.

 

Probably more often than Rooney in Bath

[John B]

Do these Brexit illiterates include Lord Digby Jones & Melvyn King?

 

It definitely includes you Duckie who does not know that the previous Bank of England Governor and Villa supporter was Mervyn King

 

Inflation up to 4%, growth down ,real wages falling, deficit rising ,that's brexiflexity for you! but not good economics

[Bath Saint]

Probably more often than Rooney in Bath

 

Well, that is true. There's a pub in Bath (the Green Tree) which has a framed Wittgenstein quote.

[moonraker]

Ah The Old Green Tree, a hive of philosophers if ever there was one.

[Wes Tender]

Ah The Old Green Tree, a hive of philosophers if ever there was one.

 

Does it become a hive of philosophers stoned?

[Johnny Bognor]

Wowsers... big development...

 

Government loses Article 50 court fight!!!

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37857785

[sandwichsaint]

Wowsers... big development...

 

Government loses Article 50 court fight!!!

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37857785

 

Took the words out of my mouth, just seen this on the G and thought 'Wowzer, that's a biggie, lets head over to the old EU thread'!

[Johnny Bognor]

It's quite ironic that in our "democracy", democracy is being blocked by unelected judges...

 

... but FWIW, I think it's right that it goes through parliament, because a decision of such magnitude should be subject to scrutiny.

Edited 3 November, 2016 by Johnny Bognor

[sandwichsaint]

So we are basically back to where we started ... an advisory referundum!

[saint si]

Let's see what MPs are made of. It's career vs principles time.

[Window Cleaner]

What a monumental mess this is becoming. Governments should never ever organise public consultations over anything important.

[trousers]

The government will appeal against the ruling at the Supreme Court. If that fails, I suppose they can then take it to the European Court of Justice which, pre-Brexit, trumps UK courts.... oh....

[John B]

Wowsers... big development...

 

Government loses Article 50 court fight!!!

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37857785

 

Affirmation of parliamentary sovereignty - just what the Brexiteers wanted! Great!

 

 

So far May’s team have been all over the place when it comes to prioritising what is best for Britain, and it’s time they pull their socks up and started taking this seriously.

 

Ultimately, the British people voted for a departure but not for a destination, which is why what really matters possibly allowing them to vote again on the final deal, giving them the chance to say no to an irresponsible hard Brexit that risks our economy and our jobs.

[shurlock]

It's quite ironic that in our "democracy", democracy is being blocked by unelected judges...

 

It's called the separation of powers, a pretty fundamental element of the rule of law and yes the UK's 'democracy'. Terms and concepts pose a problem for you, don't they Balders?

[Verbal]

The government will appeal against the ruling at the Supreme Court. If that fails, I suppose they can then take it to the European Court of Justice which, pre-Brexit, trumps UK courts.... oh....

 

That would be a wonderful irony, but the ECJ rules supreme on matters of European law. This wouldn't count: it's up to nation states to decide the means by which they trigger Article 50.

[Johnny Bognor]

It's called the separation of powers, a pretty fundamental element of the rule of law and yes the UK's 'democracy'. Terms and concepts pose a problem for you, don't they Balders?

 

Errr I do get it (as my comment was tongue in cheek) and FWIW, I agree with the decision. But carry on trying to come up with ways to have a pop, it's quite flattering, me old chum.

Edited 3 November, 2016 by Johnny Bognor

[trousers]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-legal-challenge-article-50-high-court-ruling-jeremy-corbyn-a7395101.html

 

Labour says it will still push for UK to leave the EU after High Court ruling

[Chris27687]

I've been enjoying all the brexiters *****ing and moaning about uk parliamentary sovereignty this morning.

 

What a scandal - getting what you wanted!

[buctootim]

That would be a wonderful irony, but the ECJ rules supreme on matters of European law. This wouldn't count: it's up to nation states to decide the means by which they trigger Article 50.

 

Whereas the European Court on Human Rights....

[trousers]

I've been enjoying all the brexiters *****ing and moaning about uk parliamentary sovereignty this morning.

 

What a scandal - getting what you wanted!

 

It was a 'brexiter' that brought the case to the court in the first place...

[Chris27687]

It was a 'brexiter' that brought the case to the court in the first place...

 

I know, makes it even funnier.

 

Should be a good video of Farage crying about this later on today that I'll look forward to.