Brexit - Post Match Reaction

[Johnny Bognor]

What is it with the lefties on here .... you've been berating the tories for years for not supporting manufacturing and when they do, you have a problem with it.

I give up, I really do.

[shurlock]

Now you're making stuff up ... LOLs

 

A senior executive at Nissan Europe, Colin Lawther, said the company had received "no special deal". "It's just a commitment from the government to work with the whole of the automotive industry to make sure the whole automotive industry in the UK remains competitive," he told the BBC. "We would expect nothing for us that the rest of the industry wouldn't be able to have access to. We see this as a whole industry thing, not a Nissan thing."

 

Thanks for proving my point. Not quite the effect you intended, though I'm not sure you even know what you're trying to say

[shurlock]

What is it with the lefties on here .... you've been berating the tories for years for not supporting manufacturing and when they do, you have a problem with it.

I give up, I really do.

 

2/10

 

Compensating an industry for an entirely avoidable policy choice/mistake is not quite the same as providing strategic support, is it Baldrick. If anything the former just diverts resources that could have been used to pursue a properly thought through industrial policy.

Edited 27 October, 2016 by shurlock

[Johnny Bognor]

2/10

 

Compensating an industry for an entirely avoidable policy choice/mistake is not quite the same as providing strategic support, is it Baldrick. If anything the former just diverts resources that could have been used to pursue a properly thought through industrial policy.

 

Clutching at straws...

 

How do you know that assurances weren't along the lines of not levying tariffs on imports of automotive components?? Or placing funds raised by import duties on French and German cars into subsidies for UK manufacturers??

 

All we know is that GDP is growing and more cars will be made here. The rest is just conjecture. ..

Edited 27 October, 2016 by Johnny Bognor

[Wes Tender]

Its not a special deal in the sense that its exclusive to Nissan - its worse than that, the Government will have to write cheques all over the place. They had to promise to cover any losses due to Brexit otherwise Nissan were leaving. The Government has had to pay in order to try to stave off the effects of its own policy.

 

 

It seems that you are totally and utterly wrong with your conjecture, not for the first time when it comes to Brexit. On last night's Question Time, Greg Clark MP, Business, the Energy and Industrial Strategy Secretary who was involved in the talks with Nissan in Japan, categorically stated that no cheques will be written.

[sandwichsaint]

It seems that you are totally and utterly wrong with your conjecture, not for the first time when it comes to Brexit. On last night's Question Time, Greg Clark MP, Business, the Energy and Industrial Strategy Secretary who was involved in the talks with Nissan in Japan, categorically stated that no cheques will be written.

 

Clearly 'no cheques will be written', he might as well have gone on the telly box and said no paper bags full of cash will be handed over. Any subsidy/cross subsidy will be hidden well off the books, to the benefit of all involved (on both sides) and so that every other exporter in the country doesn't claim the same privileges. Best-case scenario is we now have ministers going around offering sweetheart grace and favour deals that are not on the public record and not subject to any democratic accountability, not much cause for concern there then. Alternatively we've had a word in their ear and made it clear that May has no intention of a hard Brexit and we will be (paying a levy) to stay in the single market: huzzah, we will be Norway!

 

So which is it then?

[Johnny Bognor]

Clearly 'no cheques will be written', he might as well have gone on the telly box and said no paper bags full of cash will be handed over. Any subsidy/cross subsidy will be hidden well off the books, to the benefit of all involved (on both sides) and so that every other exporter in the country doesn't claim the same privileges. Best-case scenario is we now have ministers going around offering sweetheart grace and favour deals that are not on the public record and not subject to any democratic accountability, not much cause for concern there then. Alternatively we've had a word in their ear and made it clear that May has no intention of a hard Brexit and we will be (paying a levy) to stay in the single market: huzzah, we will be Norway!

 

So which is it then?

 

It may be a shock to you, but the EU has HEAVILY subsidised automotive manufacturing. Germany introduced a €5 billion cash for clunkers scheme. The French have heavily subsidised green and electric vehicles. In fact, investment aids, export credits, direct cash injections have been going on since the 1980's. The EU auto industry remains the recipient of considerable direct and indirect subsidies as a consequence of complex national and EU policies.

 

Democratic accountability??? NOPE

Cause for concern??? NOPE

 

And you pipe up now???? Sounds like sour grapes to me...

 

... and while we're at it, the CAP is a form of supporting agriculture. Support that other industries don't get. Yes, tax payers money being used to pay farmers and fishermen to sit on their arses. Yet remoaners don't have a problem with that. Unbelievable.

Edited 28 October, 2016 by Johnny Bognor

[Wes Tender]

Clearly 'no cheques will be written', he might as well have gone on the telly box and said no paper bags full of cash will be handed over. Any subsidy/cross subsidy will be hidden well off the books, to the benefit of all involved (on both sides) and so that every other exporter in the country doesn't claim the same privileges. Best-case scenario is we now have ministers going around offering sweetheart grace and favour deals that are not on the public record and not subject to any democratic accountability, not much cause for concern there then. Alternatively we've had a word in their ear and made it clear that May has no intention of a hard Brexit and we will be (paying a levy) to stay in the single market: huzzah, we will be Norway!

 

So which is it then?

 

You're p*ssing in the wind. Why don't you and some others on here just wait and see what transpires after we have triggered Article 50, instead of indulging in conjecture over things that might not happen? You lot lapped up the prophecies of economic Armageddon from Osborne and most economists that would immediately follow a vote to leave the EU and it hasn't happened. It is equally futile speculating on what sort of deal we will reach with the EU, if any, regarding access to the single market, but it will not include uncontrolled freedom of movement of peoples.

[buctootim]

It seems that you are totally and utterly wrong with your conjecture, not for the first time when it comes to Brexit. On last night's Question Time, Greg Clark MP, Business, the Energy and Industrial Strategy Secretary who was involved in the talks with Nissan in Japan, categorically stated that no cheques will be written.

 

Very naive as par Wes. Nissan and the other car manufacturers will gain an exemption from duty. Whether you physically send them a rebate cheque after the tax has been paid or grant them exemption from liability - its still money going from the Government to the car companies as the result of a stupid policy.

Edited 28 October, 2016 by buctootim

[Wes Tender]

Very naive as par Wes. Nissan and the other car manufacturers will gain an exemption from duty. Whether you physically send them a rebate cheque after the tax has been paid or grant them an exemption to remain in the customs union - its still money going from the Government to the car companies.

 

And very arrogant as par from you. Nissan received very attractive Government grants to set up in Sunderland originally, as it was a an area badly in need of regeneration due to the loss of several heavy regional industries. This link provides a comprehensive view of their relationship with the British Government in 2010/11, long before Brexit.

 

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201011/cmselect/cmbis/memo/561/gai07.htm

 

Greg Clarke referred to Nissan being satisfied that the Government would continue to ensure that the conditions conducive to manufacturing industry and the investment into research into new technologies would continue. On that basis, they were prepared to continue not only as they were, but with increased production with another additional car model.

 

Clearly the UK is a great place for Nissan to do business with, and their plant here is among the most productive in the World.

 

Its not a special deal in the sense that its exclusive to Nissan - its worse than that, the Government will have to write cheques all over the place. They had to promise to cover any losses due to Brexit otherwise Nissan were leaving. The Government has had to pay in order to try to stave off the effects of its own policy.

 

I reiterate; your original assertion that the Government "would have to write cheques all over the place" and that the Government "had to pay Nissan" to stay in the UK, is just unfounded post-Brexit hysterical posturing from you. Your subsequent reply moves away from such florid language, but is still speculative as to the possible alternatives.

[Verbal]

It seems that you are totally and utterly wrong with your conjecture, not for the first time when it comes to Brexit. On last night's Question Time, Greg Clark MP, Business, the Energy and Industrial Strategy Secretary who was involved in the talks with Nissan in Japan, categorically stated that no cheques will be written.

 

You understand what that means? It means this government has committed to remaining in the customs union. That's the only way that a guarantee that 'no cheques will be written' can be honoured. Which means no free trade deals with non-EU countries.

 

Mazel tov!

[buctootim]

You understand what that means?

 

I think we know the answer to that.

[Wes Tender]

You understand what that means? It means this government has committed to remaining in the customs union. That's the only way that a guarantee that 'no cheques will be written' can be honoured. Which means no free trade deals with non-EU countries.

 

Mazel tov!

 

It means nothing of the sort, no matter how much you wish to place that interpretation on it.

[buctootim]

It means nothing of the sort, no matter how much you wish to place that interpretation on it.

 

It does. The Government are going to try to carve out special circumstances for financial services and the car industry - keeping them inside the customs union. They will get told 'no way, all or nothing' and will then cave. We will be outside the EU but in the Customs Union. Referendum result respected, business as usual. Everybody happy. Apart from you.

[Wes Tender]

It does. The Government are going to try to carve out special circumstances for financial services and the car industry - keeping them inside the customs union. They will get told 'no way, all or nothing' and will then cave. We will be outside the EU but in the Customs Union. Referendum result respected, business as usual. Everybody happy. Apart from you.

 

In your dreams.

[Wade Garrett]

The only thing the EU did for our car manufacturing industry was subsidise a plant in Turkey for Ford to move into, closing Southampton in the process.

[solentstars]

The only thing the EU did for our car manufacturing industry was subsidise a plant in Turkey for Ford to move into, closing Southampton in the process.

,it was ford who did that not the eu by a cheaper loan which they paid back to the investment bank at a lower rate ,paid back in a year ,they were going to shut southampton anyway but anyway good news about nissan ,that means we are staying in the custom union which is good news .

[badgerx16]

On last night's Question Time, Greg Clark MP, Business, the Energy and Industrial Strategy Secretary who was involved in the talks with Nissan in Japan, categorically stated that no cheques will be written.

 

As Mandy Rice-Davies once asserted about another Tory Cabinet member, and 'in-law' of David Cameron - "Well he would wouldn't he".

[Guided Missile]

The only thing the EU did for our car manufacturing industry was subsidise a plant in Turkey for Ford to move into, closing Southampton in the process.

...and posters on here are moaning that the UK Government may have given an incentive to Nissan to stay here...

[Lord Duckhunter]

One advantage of leaving the EU is we can now give state aid to who the hell we wont , without breaking EU rules .

[badgerx16]

....

[Wes Tender]

As Mandy Rice-Davies once asserted about another Tory Cabinet member, and 'in-law' of David Cameron - "Well he would wouldn't he".

 

Believe what you want, but as it stands, until some evidence surfaces to the contrary, Timmy's assertions are groundless bluster.

[Wade Garrett]

,it was ford who did that not the eu by a cheaper loan which they paid back to the investment bank at a lower rate ,paid back in a year ,they were going to shut southampton anyway but anyway good news about nissan ,that means we are staying in the custom union which is good news .

 

The EU granted Ford Otosan a cheap £80m loan to be repaid in 8 years.

[Johnny Bognor]

Whatever who loaned who what, the EU have been doing special favours for the automotive industry for years.... not a peep from the remainers. Now the UK government are at it and now it's a problem? ??? Go figure...

 

Bugger me. .. remainers can teach lefties a few things about hypocrisy

 

One of the key facets of the EU is to protect certain industries. If you have a problem with the uK doing that, then surely you have a problem with the EU????

Edited 29 October, 2016 by Johnny Bognor

[Lord Duckhunter]

Whatever who loaned who what, the EU have been doing special favours for the automotive industry for years.... not a peep from the remainers. Now the UK government are at it and now it's a problem? ??? Go figure...

 

Bugger me. .. remainers can teach lefties a few things about hypocrisy

 

One of the key facets of the EU is to protect certain industries. If you have a problem with the uK doing that, then surely you have a problem with the EU????

 

It's like a parallel universe , lefties crying for years that we need an industrial policy & state aid for manufacturing are now moaning about it . Just shows their love of the EU trumps everything . Watching QT on Thursday you had the arch luvvie Ken Loach , kier starmer & some idiot lib dumb women , complaining about Govt money being used to protect jobs in Sunderland.

[shurlock]

Whatever who loaned who what, the EU have been doing special favours for the automotive industry for years.... not a peep from the remainers. Now the UK government are at it and now it's a problem? ??? Go figure...

 

Bugger me. .. remainers can teach lefties a few things about hypocrisy

 

One of the key facets of the EU is to protect certain industries. If you have a problem with the uK doing that, then surely you have a problem with the EU????

 

Still don't get it, do you Balders. Who said this is about opposition to industrial policy? Unlike Brexiters fairytales about the UK's place in the world, Nissan has made it clear that the UK is valuable only insofar as its trading relationship with the EU is preserved. The truth hurts pal. It's thus somewhat bemusing to see brexiters who have bashed industrial policy for years now champion it in the service of this relationship! Which begs the question: why alter the status quo in the first place?

Edited 30 October, 2016 by shurlock

[Wes Tender]

Nissan has made it clear that the UK is valuable only insofar as its trading relationship with the EU is preserved. The truth hurts pal. It's thus somewhat bemusing to see brexiters who have bashed industrial policy for years now champion it in the service of this relationship! Which begs the question: why alter the status quo in the first place?

 

Nissan is only here because of access to the EU? The fact that Sunderland is one of their most productive and innovative plants and that they sell more to the UK than to any other EU country has no bearing at all, does it?

 

How do you conclude that "Brexiteers" have bashed industrial policy for years? Do you mean Eurosceptics? Brexiteers haven't existed for more than a few months. Even accusing Eurosceptics of that is somewhat bemusing. Give us examples.

 

Perhaps if you didn't post so early in the morning, your thought processes would be less muddled.

[Saint86]

It's like a parallel universe , lefties crying for years that we need an industrial policy & state aid for manufacturing are now moaning about it . Just shows their love of the EU trumps everything . Watching QT on Thursday you had the arch luvvie Ken Loach , kier starmer & some idiot lib dumb women , complaining about Govt money being used to protect jobs in Sunderland.

 

They are basically all behaving like Alpine.

 

Country is doing well and they hate it, they want us to fail, they can't except the Tories are doing well and they can't except that the current champions of the sycophantic left are a bunch of dribbling rapid dogs with an intelligence similar to that of their 4 legged friends. I for one am enjoying watching our continued GDP growth, international acknowledgement as the leading business centre in the g7 and watching our government focus policies to suit areas that need help. Rather that than sending taxpayer moneies out of the country, being forced to bail out EU countries, paying for EU citizens medical care, helping to subsidise foreign country that are taking British jobs etc.

 

It's all very embarrassing for them, but hilarious none the less

[Verbal]

It means nothing of the sort, no matter how much you wish to place that interpretation on it.

 

Which tells me you have no idea what the customs union is. Or why it's a red line for supply chain companies like Nissan.

[John B]

They are basically all behaving like Alpine.

 

Country is doing well and they hate it, they want us to fail, they can't except the Tories are doing well and they can't except that the current champions of the sycophantic left are a bunch of dribbling rapid dogs with an intelligence similar to that of their 4 legged friends. I for one am enjoying watching our continued GDP growth, international acknowledgement as the leading business centre in the g7 and watching our government focus policies to suit areas that need help. Rather that than sending taxpayer moneies out of the country, being forced to bail out EU countries, paying for EU citizens medical care, helping to subsidise foreign country that are taking British jobs etc.

 

It's all very embarrassing for them, but hilarious none the less

 

I think you and your fellow economically illiterate Brexiters are in for a shock as Low-earning families that Theresa May has promised to help will be thousands of pounds a year worse off by 2020 because of rising inflation, lower wage growth and Tory social security cuts.

 

One consequence of the big falls we have recently seen in the value of the pound is that prices will rise more quickly over the next few years. This will squeeze family budgets with higher prices in the shops, and turn the cash freeze in social security support for working age families into a significant and painful real terms cut.

 

Brexit has caused the UK permanent damage that would be made worse by higher inflation and slowing consumer demand, which would result in lower growth

[John B]

Which tells me you have no idea what the customs union is. Or why it's a red line for supply chain companies like Nissan.

 

As there is ignorance among Brexiters concerning the exact nature of a customs union, I should like to recommend to interested readers a most accessible guide to all things European. It is called The Routledge Guide to the European Union, and the authors, **** Leonard and Robert Taylor, have long experience of the EU.

[Johnny Bognor]

I think you and your fellow economically illiterate Brexiters are in for a shock as Low-earning families that Theresa May has promised to help will be thousands of pounds a year worse off by 2020 because of rising inflation, lower wage growth and Tory social security cuts.

 

One consequence of the big falls we have recently seen in the value of the pound is that prices will rise more quickly over the next few years. This will squeeze family budgets with higher prices in the shops, and turn the cash freeze in social security support for working age families into a significant and painful real terms cut.

 

Brexit has caused the UK permanent damage that would be made worse by higher inflation and slowing consumer demand, which would result in lower growth

So economically literate one, you seem to disagree with everyone that the £ was seriously overvalued pre referendum and was due a correction anyway

 

Sent from my SM-G920F using Tapatalk

[shurlock]

Nissan is only here because of access to the EU? The fact that Sunderland is one of their most productive and innovative plants and that they sell more to the UK than to any other EU country has no bearing at all, does it?

 

How do you conclude that "Brexiteers" have bashed industrial policy for years? Do you mean Eurosceptics? Brexiteers haven't existed for more than a few months. Even accusing Eurosceptics of that is somewhat bemusing. Give us examples.

 

Perhaps if you didn't post so early in the morning, your thought processes would be less muddled.

 

Poor old Les, is this going to go the same way as your embarrassing performance over productivity and UK's productivity record

 

You really don't have much of a clue about the UK's political and economic faultlines and the history of industrial policy, do you? An influential wing of thought, as embodied by the likes of Patrick Minford and the IEA has been hostile to industrial policy, seeing it as a form of cosy corporatism. Indeed their very scepticism of 'Europe' is inseperable from their opposition towards industrial policy and state intervention which have a longer history on the continent.

 

Whatever label you use 'Brexiter', 'Eurosceptic' - in effect another attempt to mask your ignorance through deflection- this thinking is very coherent and consistent. Alas you don't know whether you're coming or going pal.

Edited 30 October, 2016 by shurlock

[John B]

So economically literate one, you seem to disagree with everyone that the £ was seriously overvalued pre referendum and was due a correction anyway

 

Sent from my SM-G920F using Tapatalk

 

It maybe over valued post Brexit and may fall further but I dont think it was over valued pre Brexit as many countries we happy to buy sterling

[Lord Duckhunter]

Do these Brexit illiterates include Lord Digby Jones & Melvyn King?

[Johnny Bognor]

It maybe over valued post Brexit and may fall further but I dont think it was over valued pre Brexit as many countries we happy to buy sterling

So the IMF and pretty much every man and his dog thought it overvalued, but an economist extraordinaire like you didnt?

 

Is running a balance of payments deficit good for the country in the long term??

 

Do you think we should have spending power now, to feed our lust for consumerism, at the expense of ****ing future generations over??

[badgerx16]

......, at the expense of ****ing future generations over??

 

Are these the 'future generations' who, as an age demographic, voted to stay in the EU ?

[Johnny Bognor]

Are these the 'future generations' who, as an age demographic, voted to stay in the EU ?

 

Yes. The same future generations that would be damaged by a high £ in or out.

 

It's just some are too economically illiterate to see it...

Edited 30 October, 2016 by Johnny Bognor

[Wes Tender]

Poor old Les, is this going to go the same way as your embarrassing performance over productivity and UK's productivity record

 

You really don't have much of a clue about the UK's political and economic faultlines and the history of industrial policy, do you? An influential wing of thought, as embodied by the likes of Patrick Minford and the IEA has been hostile to industrial policy, seeing it as a form of cosy corporatism. Indeed their very scepticism of 'Europe' is inseperable from their opposition towards industrial policy and state intervention which have a longer history on the continent.

 

Whatever label you use 'Brexiter', 'Eurosceptic' - in effect another attempt to mask your ignorance through deflection- this thinking is very coherent and consistent. Alas you don't know whether you're coming or going pal.

 

Caught with your pants down posting tripe whilst still bleary-eyed, it is you that is trying to avoid the flack by deflection. You're even trying to assert that Eurosceptics and Brexiteers are the same thing. Go on, have the good grace to admit that you got it wrong by referring to the recently formed group known as Brexiteers as having "bashed industrial policy for years".

[buctootim]

Caught with your pants down posting tripe whilst still bleary-eyed, it is you that is trying to avoid the flack by deflection. You're even trying to assert that Eurosceptics and Brexiteers are the same thing. Go on, have the good grace to admit that you got it wrong by referring to the recently formed group known as Brexiteers as having "bashed industrial policy for years".

 

Ooh its a recently formed group. Where is it based Wes? Who are the members and the officers? How come you are so consistently unable to grasp every issue posted up? I'm genuinely amazed.

Edited 30 October, 2016 by buctootim

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

Caught with your pants down posting tripe whilst still bleary-eyed, it is you that is trying to avoid the flack....

 

Unless the opinions of 1970's Soul singer Roberta Flack have somehow become germane to the subject of the UK's retreat from the EU, methinks that the word you are looking for here must be 'Flak' rather than 'flack'. As I well know just how eager you are to see that the blight of poor spelling be eradicated from this thread I can only put this otherwise unaccountable error on your part down to you feeling a little 'bleary-eyed' yourself. Or have perhaps your own trousers too become detached during the cut and thrust of debate?

 

In any case, in order to maintain the standard you have yourself set do try to make sure that this type of thing does not happen again.

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

Notwithstanding the widespread suspicion that there is rather more to the matter than first meets the eye, last week's news that Renault-Nissan is set to approve a further round of investment at their huge Sunderland operation is of course a (very) welcome medium term development, both in regard to the future of our motor industry specifically and for this trading nation in general. However, the credibility of those on here who seek to selectively employ this type of good news as hard evidence that UK manufacturing now faces some idyllic 'happy ever after' future in this post-EU Single Market 'Nirvana' of their imagination are overlooking the other potentially significant motor industry story of the month:

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-vauxhall-general-motors-job-losses-pound-value-crash-cuts-a7379931.html - those on here who dislike the Independent for some reason can soon find any number of other links to the same story for themselves.

 

So it would seem that regardless of what happens in Sunderland the many thousands of working people employed today by GM at Ellesmere Port and Luton (and not forgetting all those in the supply-chain) have good reason to worry about the future prospects of both themselves individually and for the families their incomes provide for - regardless of what the usual suspects on here might have them believe.

 

The above illustrates nicely the danger of seizing upon every single development that happens to support one's own point of view, while choosing to ignore all those that do not. It seems to me that most of the stuff we see in the monthly economic news at this time represents far too unsubstantial a foundation to build any reliably firm set of conclusions upon as yet. Yes, thankfully fears that the economy might fall off the proverbial 'cliff' in the months immediately following the referendum outcome did not materialise - and God knows what a relief that should be to those on here who were (and still are) deeply concerned about this once great nation's future. But we are not exactly 'out of the woods' yet ... I don't think we have even started to enter that particular dark forest as yet, never mind view it only via a rear-view mirror.

 

Ignoring the political upheaval for a moment the principle 'concrete' economic development thus far is that Pound's exchange rate has fallen significantly post (and clearly because of) the referendum outcome. There seems little reason to believe that is currency situation will be reversed within the foreseeable future. Economic history and theory strongly suggests that a falling exchange rate will in turn lead to a increase in both exports and inflation - indeed the record shows that inflation is already rising fast as the cost of the imports our economy requires upon inevitably rise. Furthermore, though I suspect a handful of people on here will doubtless seek to dispute it again, in truth there seems little real reason to doubt that the Bank of England's forecast that this increase in UK living costs is set to continue in the months and years ahead will prove to be a accurate one. The bank's mandated 2% inflation target is toast.

 

As for everything else ... well we will just have to wait and see I suppose.

Edited 31 October, 2016 by CHAPEL END CHARLIE

[Wes Tender]

Ooh its a recently formed group. Where is it based Wes? Who are the members and the officers? How come you are so consistently unable to grasp every issue posted up? I'm genuinely amazed.

 

You can be really puerile when you put your mind to it, but just for your benefit:-

 

http://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/group.

[shurlock]

Caught with your pants down posting tripe whilst still bleary-eyed, it is you that is trying to avoid the flack by deflection. You're even trying to assert that Eurosceptics and Brexiteers are the same thing. Go on, have the good grace to admit that you got it wrong by referring to the recently formed group known as Brexiteers as having "bashed industrial policy for years".

 

It's very simple Les- there are many Brexiters who have opposed industrial policy during the course of their careers. And their views on the role of the state are intimately bound up with their views on Europe.

 

Are you telling me that because Brexit is a relatively recent term, supporters before that had never ever thought about Europe or the economy? You may have been born yesterday but come on pal

 

Once again your ability to get tripped up in your own dim, parochial train of thought is unrivalled.

[Wes Tender]

Notwithstanding the widespread suspicion that there is rather more to the matter than first meets the eye, last week's news that Renault-Nissan is set to approve a further round of investment at their huge Sunderland operation is of course a (very) welcome medium term development, both in regard to the future of our motor industry specifically and for this trading nation in general. However, the credibility of those on here who seek to selectively employ this type of good news as hard evidence that UK manufacturing now faces some idyllic 'happy ever after' future in this post-EU Single Market 'Nirvana' of their imagination are overlooking the other potentially significant motor industry story of the month:

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-vauxhall-general-motors-job-losses-pound-value-crash-cuts-a7379931.html - those on here who dislike the Independent for some reason can soon find any number of other links to the same story for themselves.

 

So it would seem that regardless of what happens in Sunderland the many thousands of working people employed today by GM at Ellesmere Port and Luton (and not forgetting all those in the supply-chain) have good reason to worry about the future prospects of both themselves individually and for the families their incomes provide for - regardless of what the usual suspects on here might have them believe.

 

The above illustrates nicely the danger of seizing upon every single development that happens to support one's own point of view, while choosing to ignore all those that do not. It seems to me that most of the stuff we see in the monthly economic news at this time represents far too unsubstantial a foundation to build any reliably firm set of conclusions upon as yet. Yes, thankfully fears that the economy might fall off the proverbial 'cliff' in the months immediately following the referendum outcome did not materialise - and God knows what a relief that should be to those on here who were (and still are) deeply concerned about this once great nation's future. But we are not exactly 'out of the woods' yet ... I don't think we have even started to enter that particular dark forest as yet, never mind view it only via a rear-view mirror.

 

Ignoring the political upheaval for a moment the principle 'concrete' economic development thus far is that Pound's exchange rate has fallen significantly post (and clearly because of) the referendum outcome. There seems little reason to believe that is currency situation will be reversed within the foreseeable future. Economic history and theory strongly suggests that a falling exchange rate will in turn lead to a increase in both exports and inflation - indeed the record shows that inflation is already rising fast as the cost of the imports our economy requires upon inevitably rise. Furthermore, though I suspect a handful of people on here will doubtless seek to dispute it again, in truth there seems little real reason to doubt that the Bank of England's forecast that this increase in UK living costs is set to continue in the months and years ahead will prove to be a accurate one. The bank's mandated 2% inflation target is toast.

 

As for everything else ... well we will just have to wait and see I suppose.

 

Your last line is the most sensible one of the entire post. Many forecasts of the Remainian project fear campaign for the immediate impact of a vote to leave the EU have not materialised, so it is sensible to await further developments before making longer term forecasts.

 

You say that the falling value of the Pound will lead to an increase in both exports and inflation and it is nice of you to recognise the export upside. I suspect though that you meant to say that it would lead to the increase in the price of imports and thus inflation.

[Wes Tender]

It's very simple Les- there are many Brexiters who have opposed industrial policy during the course of their careers. And their views on the role of the state are intimately bound up with their views on Europe.

 

Are you telling me that because Brexit is a relatively recent term, supporters before that had never ever thought about Europe or the economy? You may have been born yesterday but come on pal

 

Once again your ability to get tripped up in your own dim, parochial train of thought is unrivalled.

 

Wriggle, wriggle, wriggle. Have it your own way, the only reason that Nissan is here is because of access to the EU market and the recently formed grouping known as Brexiteers has bashed industrial policy for years before they even existed. It doesn't penetrate your cranium that I question your terminology in both cases, rather than the thrust of your argument. I realise that you would suffer loss of face by admitting your error, so it comes as no surprise that you employ this bluster and the usual arrogant insults in your vain attempt to deflect attention away from the original errors.

[Johnny Bognor]

Notwithstanding the widespread suspicion that there is rather more to the matter than first meets the eye, last week's news that Renault-Nissan is set to approve a further round of investment at their huge Sunderland operation is of course a (very) welcome medium term development, both in regard to the future of our motor industry specifically and for this trading nation in general. However, the credibility of those on here who seek to selectively employ this type of good news as hard evidence that UK manufacturing now faces some idyllic 'happy ever after' future in this post-EU Single Market 'Nirvana' of their imagination are overlooking the other potentially significant motor industry story of the month:

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-vauxhall-general-motors-job-losses-pound-value-crash-cuts-a7379931.html - those on here who dislike the Independent for some reason can soon find any number of other links to the same story for themselves.

 

So it would seem that regardless of what happens in Sunderland the many thousands of working people employed today by GM at Ellesmere Port and Luton (and not forgetting all those in the supply-chain) have good reason to worry about the future prospects of both themselves individually and for the families their incomes provide for - regardless of what the usual suspects on here might have them believe.

 

The above illustrates nicely the danger of seizing upon every single development that happens to support one's own point of view, while choosing to ignore all those that do not. It seems to me that most of the stuff we see in the monthly economic news at this time represents far too unsubstantial a foundation to build any reliably firm set of conclusions upon as yet. Yes, thankfully fears that the economy might fall off the proverbial 'cliff' in the months immediately following the referendum outcome did not materialise - and God knows what a relief that should be to those on here who were (and still are) deeply concerned about this once great nation's future. But we are not exactly 'out of the woods' yet ... I don't think we have even started to enter that particular dark forest as yet, never mind view it only via a rear-view mirror.

 

You do make a good point here in that there will be bad news as well as good news. Whilst I highlight the good news (being a naturally positive person and an optimist), I am more than aware that there are downsides. Too many remainers only focus on the downsides and don’t consider any of the upsides. In relation to GM and the Ellesmere Port site, 80% of the cars produced there are shipped to the EU, cars which are now 15% cheaper relative to German or French cars. Compare this to the cuts from GM in Germany, where certain models produced for the UK will be more expensive.

 

 

 

Ignoring the political upheaval for a moment the principle 'concrete' economic development thus far is that Pound's exchange rate has fallen significantly post (and clearly because of) the referendum outcome. There seems little reason to believe that is currency situation will be reversed within the foreseeable future. Economic history and theory strongly suggests that a falling exchange rate will in turn lead to a increase in both exports and inflation - indeed the record shows that inflation is already rising fast as the cost of the imports our economy requires upon inevitably rise. Furthermore, though I suspect a handful of people on here will doubtless seek to dispute it again, in truth there seems little real reason to doubt that the Bank of England's forecast that this increase in UK living costs is set to continue in the months and years ahead will prove to be a accurate one. The bank's mandated 2% inflation target is toast.

 

As for everything else ... well we will just have to wait and see I suppose.

 

I fully appreciate the effects of the falling £ on inflation, but you like many others, fail to recognise that the £ was overvalued and that this was bad for the UK in the long term.

 

I urge you to read this article in the Independent. The high value of the pound was damaging the UK and our future prospects…

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/why-the-plummeting-pound-sterling-is-good-news-for-britain-a7353846.html

 

The £ needed to come down. Brexit was more of a catalyst than the cause…

[shurlock]

Wriggle, wriggle, wriggle. Have it your own way, the only reason that Nissan is here is because of access to the EU market and the recently formed grouping known as Brexiteers has bashed industrial policy for years before they even existed. It doesn't penetrate your cranium that I question your terminology in both cases, rather than the thrust of your argument. I realise that you would suffer loss of face by admitting your error, so it comes as no surprise that you employ this bluster and the usual arrogant insults in your vain attempt to deflect attention away from the original errors.

 

Good one, Les. The EU as an issue never existed before 2012. What would we do without you

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

Your last line is the most sensible one of the entire post. Many forecasts of the Remainian project fear campaign for the immediate impact of a vote to leave the EU have not materialised, so it is sensible to await further developments before making longer term forecasts.

 

You say that the falling value of the Pound will lead to an increase in both exports and inflation and it is nice of you to recognise the export upside. I suspect though that you meant to say that it would lead to the increase in the price of imports and thus inflation.

 

The increase in the competitiveness of UK exports that will no doubt follow the near crash the pound has suffered recently is certainly one positive outcome for our economy - as far as it goes. Unfortunately the corollary of that situation is that inflation too is now set to rise - indeed this process has already started. This effect will of course hit the living standards of millions of your fellow citizens - not all of whom have some relatively vast 'pension pot' in prospect to soften the blow. When/if inflation starts to exceed wage growth yet again then most of us will experience a fall in our real standard of living. This effect too has long term adverse consequences for the cohesion of society.

 

Now if I was to believe everything that I read on here then I might well think (if I were sufficiently gullible that is) that this virtual 'crash' in the value of the post referendum Pound was a mere 'bagatelle' because the UKP had somehow become artificially 'overvalued' before the referendum and therefore the drastic fall in its value was a good thing! How convenient. Unfortunately that is a specious argument and the pound's former exchange rate was more a form of 'verdict' delivered by the foreign exchange markets on the - pre referendum - health and prospects of our economy. In reality any beneficial increase in our export trade may well be only a temporary effect and this will almost certainly not fully counteract the harm that increasing inflation will do to our economy. There was a reason why conquering the evil of excessive inflation (and for that matter attempting to reduce our huge national debt) were once seen as THE crucial objective of monetary policy. Okay, it is obviously true that currencies need to find a appropriate level that reflects the strength and weaknesses of the economies they represent, indeed the inability of the Euro to fully achieve that function is its undoing, but currency weakness is in the long run not a sign of a healthy economy.

 

Anyone who attempts to tell you differently is just another 'Snake Oil' salesman I'm afraid.

[Wes Tender]

Good one, Les. The EU as an issue never existed before 2012. What would we do without you

 

Really? The EU was effectively born via the Maastricht Treaty in 1993, when Eurosceptism began to find its feet. It might not have been an issue for you before 2012, but it was for many others since Maastricht.