Brexit - Post Match Reaction

[badgerx16]

The French are digging in over fisheries because they suspect that the UK Govt will back down on that to land more favourable agreements on more valuable areas of the economy. ( And they are probably correct in that assessment ).

[Wes Tender]

[quote]Wow you really are catastrophically stupid. What part of "If the Dutch catch them in February they wont be in British waters in March" don't you get?  [/quote]

I'm really concerned that you've got a screw loose, jumping to this weird interpretation of what you think I said. I've clearly stated that if the fish are in our waters, they're ours to catch and that if they are in other country's territorial waters they are theirs. All this nonsense about the fish spawning in one area, migrating to another whilst growing larger and then being in a third area later, affects the sustainability issue, but doesn't alter the fact that they can be caught by the countries in whose territorial waters they are in. The Bill alters the CFP also in stating that undersized fish caught will have to be retained and landed with the catch and included in allocations. Also that at least 65% will have to be landed at British ports.

 

 

[Wes Tender]

37 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

The French are digging in over fisheries because they suspect that the UK Govt will back down on that to land more favourable agreements on more valuable areas of the economy. ( And they are probably correct in that assessment ).

No, they have catastrophically miscalculated the British mood, and risk bringing about no deal because of their stupidity. They don't seem that realise that they aren't dealing with May and Robbins any longer. The obvious way to bring them to their senses is to tell the EU that unless the French accept that they are not going to get the fishing access that they had under the CFP, we will walk away from the talks. Tell them that they have 48 hours to come back to us with that agreement and if we don't have it, then it is WTO.

[badgerx16]

44 minutes ago, Wes Tender said:

No, they have catastrophically miscalculated the British mood, and risk bringing about no deal because of their stupidity. They don't seem that realise that they aren't dealing with May and Robbins any longer. The obvious way to bring them to their senses is to tell the EU that unless the French accept that they are not going to get the fishing access that they had under the CFP, we will walk away from the talks. Tell them that they have 48 hours to come back to us with that agreement and if we don't have it, then it is WTO.

And what, pray, is the "British mood" ? Yours is certainly not mine. Do you really think that most leave voters want 'no deal' ? As they are almost all employed elsewhere, would they concede on fisheries if it meant maintaining their own jobs and income ? As you are well aware, fishing is a minute part of the overall economy.

Edit: regarding the "British mood", how many businesses have come out supporting no-deal ? How many have advised against it ?

Edited 16 October, 2020 by badgerx16

[badgerx16]

1 minute ago, badgerx16 said:

...

 

Edited 16 October, 2020 by badgerx16

[Wes Tender]

1 hour ago, badgerx16 said:

And what, pray, is the "British mood" ? Yours is certainly not mine. Do you really think that most leave voters want 'no deal' ? As they are almost all employed elsewhere, would they concede on fisheries if it meant maintaining their own jobs and income ? As you are well aware, fishing is a minute part of the overall economy.

Edit: regarding the "British mood", how many businesses have come out supporting no-deal ? How many have advised against it ?

What you say about the size of the fisheries industry compared to the rest of the economy is true, but the policy decision on it is political rather than economic, just as it is in France of course. It is a matter of sovereignty, summed up by the referendum and election slogan to take back control of our money, our borders, our laws and our territorial waters. Renege on those pledges and face electoral annihilation losing coastal seats around the country and elsewhere

Just for balance, do you believe the French electorate which is also largely employed in other sectors other than fishing should also pressure their government to safeguard their jobs and income rather than pander to their fishermen? Germany are prepared to look at the bigger picture of how a no deal Brexit will affect their economy and Merkel has pressured Macron to relent over the stupidity of the French position.

I have always said that a deal is preferred to no deal, but my mood currently is that if we make concessions on the red lines of fisheries, level playing field rules and state subsidies, I would prefer WTO. Of course some of the remoaner mood still doesn't accept that we have left and are planning on some return to the EU in the distant future. On the leave side, whereas like me most would prefer a Canada style FTA to WTO, many are increasingly angry at the arrogance of the French fishermen and their threats of blocking their ports, dust-ups at sea and other belligerent threats.

 

[aintforever]

I'm not sure the British mood will be great if we trash our economy for the sake of a few fish.

How much cash will we make from this WTO fish windfall next year then?

[Wes Tender]

Hurrah! Well done Boris. Ball in the EU court, if they want a FTA, they need to get real on accepting our red lines. Our door is still open if they stop playing games and wasting time. Boris' body language was great. He clearly relished making that statement.

[trousers]

15 minutes ago, Wes Tender said:

 Boris' body language was great. 

Bit of an odd presentation though...... part speech, part interview (with an interviewer that didn't have a microphone).  

Edit: just seen the 'official' BBC footage where he's looking into the camera, ergo, ignore me

Edited 16 October, 2020 by trousers

[Lord Duckhunter]

1 hour ago, Wes Tender said:

Hurrah! Well done Boris. Ball in the EU court, if they want a FTA, they need to get real on accepting our red lines. Our door is still open if they stop playing games and wasting time. Boris' body language was great. He clearly relished making that statement.

Yep, got his Mojo back there. Excellent speech. Shame he doesn’t show the same vigour over Covid & get the country back working again. 

[Guided Missile]

Boris playing a blinder.

[badgerx16]

So much for the easiest trade deal in history. 🤩

[badgerx16]

"There is no plan for no deal, because we’re going to get a great deal." - Boris Johnson

"We have four years more or less between now and date of next election. We can easily conclude a new settlement with EU in that period." - Michael Gove

"If you think about it, the free trade agreement that we will have to come to with the European Union should be one of the easiest in human history.”  - Liam Fox

"It will be easy to negotiate a trade deal, and of course, it's in the European Union's interest, just as it is in ours." - Paul Nuttall (UKIP)

'trade relations with the EU could be sorted out "in an afternoon over a cup of coffee"' - Gerard Batten (UKIP)

"I think we could very easily get a better trade deal than we have at the moment." - Douglas Carswell

"All the problems that you traditionally have with a trade negotiation aren't there." - Matthew Elliott (Vote Leave Ch. Exec)

 

[Super_Uwe]

More of the same noise in public from both sides. Have felt all along we will end up with some sort of EFTA/Norway style deal, only sold in a different format.

As Dutch PM Rutte was quoted as saying yesterday, "It would be crazy for the outside world if the UK and the EU will not be able to come to an agreement". Can't argue with that really...

[badgerx16]

36 minutes ago, Super_Uwe said:

More of the same noise in public from both sides. Have felt all along we will end up with some sort of EFTA/Norway style deal, only sold in a different format.

As Dutch PM Rutte was quoted as saying yesterday, "It would be crazy for the outside world if the UK and the EU will not be able to come to an agreement". Can't argue with that really...

That'll upset Wes.

[Wes Tender]

51 minutes ago, Super_Uwe said:

More of the same noise in public from both sides. Have felt all along we will end up with some sort of EFTA/Norway style deal, only sold in a different format.

As Dutch PM Rutte was quoted as saying yesterday, "It would be crazy for the outside world if the UK and the EU will not be able to come to an agreement". Can't argue with that really...

I'd be happy to lay down a £50 bet for charity that we don't end up with a Norway style deal, but I'm afraid that remoaner ultras don't honour their bets

What different format could there be to an EFTA/Norway style deal anyway? It either is or it isnt one.

[Lord Duckhunter]

1 hour ago, Super_Uwe said:

 Have felt all along we will end up with some sort of EFTA/Norway style deal, only sold in a different format.

Behave man, how they gonna sell freedom of movement. Without that, there’s no way anything can be called a Norway “style” deal. 

[hypochondriac]

3 hours ago, badgerx16 said:

So much for the easiest trade deal in history. 🤩

I said a few months ago that we will have a deal at the last minute and this hasn't changed. All this stuff is just posturing. 

[Wes Tender]

Well said Rupert

[trousers]

15 hours ago, hypochondriac said:

I said a few months ago that we will have a deal at the last minute and this hasn't changed. All this stuff is just posturing. 

This

[badgerx16]

1 hour ago, Wes Tender said:

Well said Rupert

The man is still a buffoon.

[Tamesaint]

3 hours ago, Wes Tender said:

Well said Rupert

He's getting very red in the face. Too much port with his duck???

The definition of "gammon".

 

[Kingsland Codger]

On 16/10/2020 at 14:02, Lord Duckhunter said:

Yep, got his Mojo back there. Excellent speech. Shame he doesn’t show the same vigour over Covid & get the country back working again. 

I would like to know how he defines "prosper mightily". This is a boast that requires a specific answer if it is to be taken seriously. Given the use of the word "mightily", can we expect sustained annual GDP growth of, say, 3~4%, and from when will this mighty prosperity start? Twelve months hence? Two years?

 

[badgerx16]

29 minutes ago, Kingsland Codger said:

I would like to know how he defines "prosper mightily". This is a boast that requires a specific answer if it is to be taken seriously. Given the use of the word "mightily", can we expect sustained annual GDP growth of, say, 3~4%, and from when will this mighty prosperity start? Twelve months hence? Two years?

 

Waffle is easy. Delivery is their problem.

[Wes Tender]

39 minutes ago, Kingsland Codger said:

I would like to know how he defines "prosper mightily". This is a boast that requires a specific answer if it is to be taken seriously. Given the use of the word "mightily", can we expect sustained annual GDP growth of, say, 3~4%, and from when will this mighty prosperity start? Twelve months hence? Two years?

 

Don't be silly. It is an expression of optimism, an opinion, and doesn't need any precise definition, any more than the dire forecasts of project fear did. None of us has a crystal ball, but that doesn't prevent us expressing an optimistic or a pessimistic view of how one thinks events will go. By all means disparage his view, but you have no concrete evidence to prove that he will be right or wrong. Only time will prove that.

[Lord Duckhunter]

1 hour ago, Wes Tender said:

By all means disparage his view, but you have no concrete evidence to prove that he will be right or wrong. Only time will prove that.

And with the pro  European loon Sir Starmer in charge,  Labour will  have the perfect opportunity to offer another referendum in their next manifesto. Or even to make the offer of going back in without the need for one. That’s democracy at work. 

[Super_Uwe]

On 16/10/2020 at 18:07, Lord Duckhunter said:

Behave man, how they gonna sell freedom of movement. Without that, there’s no way anything can be called a Norway “style” deal. 

It's not going to be exactly the same, I'm not suggesting it will be. The UK and EU will need to agree on something bespoke, if they reach agreement at all.

The Norway/EFTA model is IMO the closest of the available models out there. As for freedom of movement, I agree it is very very unlikely to be retained. But who knows? The whole Brexit process has done the job of significantly reducing net migration from the EU. And if most net migration now comes from non-EU countries, it hardly seems worth the fuss. But that's politics for you.

https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/#:~:text=Net migration to the UK%2C the difference between immigration and,the year ending March 2015.&text=Net migration of EU citizens,the June 2016 EU referendum.

[Wes Tender]

1 hour ago, Super_Uwe said:

It's not going to be exactly the same, I'm not suggesting it will be. The UK and EU will need to agree on something bespoke, if they reach agreement at all.

The Norway/EFTA model is IMO the closest of the available models out there. As for freedom of movement, I agree it is very very unlikely to be retained. But who knows? The whole Brexit process has done the job of significantly reducing net migration from the EU. And if most net migration now comes from non-EU countries, it hardly seems worth the fuss. But that's politics for you.

https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/#:~:text=Net migration to the UK%2C the difference between immigration and,the year ending March 2015.&text=Net migration of EU citizens,the June 2016 EU referendum.

All  this talk about Norway style deals is nonsense, even suggesting that it is the closest of the available models. It might be what some remoaners want as a way for us to be tied to the EU as a vassal colony, but it doesn't satisfy our desire to be an independent sovereign nation. Norway has to not only accept freedom of movement of peoples, but also has to pay an annual fee into the EU gravy train funding, as well as having EU laws foisted upon them without having hardly any voice in their formation.

https://www.efta.int/eea/eea-agreement/eea-basic-features

What we want is a Canada style deal, not a Norway style one. If we can't have that, then WTO it is. 

Regarding any sort of freedom of movement, there won't be any from the EU. If we arrange any via FTAs with countries like Australia, then that is up to us. Otherwise it will be on the basis of a points based system, so that we only allow the immigration that we need and want, whether that is from Europe, or the rest of the World.

[badgerx16]

A no-deal Brexit will mean road hauliers from around Britain will need a permit to enter Kent, and probably only a quarter of them will be granted access to the EU. This keeps getting better and better.

[Wes Tender]

I'm pleased to hear that despite rumours that the UK may have caved in on fishing in order to get the talks on trade with the EU underway, news surfaces today that Barnier has reported to the EU that no real progress has been made during the past couple of weeks of intensive talks. The sticking points remain fisheries, the so-called level playing field and ECJ jurisdiction over our laws. The irony is really delicious when Barnier accused the UK of intransigence over these matters, and says that we are deliberately running down the clock in the hope that the EU will cave in to our demands. We are being accused of employing the very tactics that the EU negotiators are renowned for. 

When we walked away from the talks a couple of weeks ago, accusing the EU of not taking the negotiations seriously, and that they were refusing to discuss legal text to back them, they very soon came running back to the negotiating table, worried sick about the no deal consequences. Surely it must have been made clear to them many times during the past few months that these three areas where we refuse to budge are red lines that we will not allow to be negotiated away and that we will not accept a FTA that is worse than those granted by them to Canada, S.Korea and Japan. It seems pointless to continue unless they are prepared to concede that we are not going to fold our position to their demands in these areas, so perhaps it is long overdue to just tell them that under these circumstances we consider that trading with them under WTO terms is now our preferred option. There is rising panic around the countries in the EU who have the most to lose if we go WTO, and in the meantime we are achieving some real success in signing trade deals with several other countries

[badgerx16]

According to the Government website, these are the trade agreements in place from Jan 1st 2021. ( The FTA with Japan is listed separately to this list )

Andean countries
CARIFORUM trade bloc
Central America
Chile
Côte d’Ivoire
Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) trade bloc
Faroe Islands
Georgia
Iceland and Norway
Israel
Jordan
Kenya (Agreement in principle)
Kosovo
Lebanon
Liechtenstein
Morocco
Pacific states
Palestinian Authority
South Korea
Southern Africa Customs Union and Mozambique (SACUM) trade bloc
Switzerland
Tunisia
Ukraine

 

[Sheaf Saint]

On 19/10/2020 at 12:50, Lord Duckhunter said:

And with the pro  European loon Sir Starmer in charge,  Labour will  have the perfect opportunity to offer another referendum in their next manifesto. Or even to make the offer of going back in without the need for one. That’s democracy at work. 

And if any future referendum returns a re-join result, or Starmer wins an election on a manifesto of taking us back in without one, will you take the same advice you have been giving to remainers since 2016 and accept that it's democracy and the will of the people?

[spyinthesky]

Rupert says that 'If a deal is not good enough, you walk away'

What happened with the Tommy Forepast, Augustin Delgado deals then?

[Wes Tender]

3 hours ago, Sheaf Saint said:

And if any future referendum returns a re-join result, or Starmer wins an election on a manifesto of taking us back in without one, will you take the same advice you have been giving to remainers since 2016 and accept that it's democracy and the will of the people?

I expect that LD had his tongue firmly in his cheek. Starmer wouldn't be so stupid in their manifesto as to offer a referendum on rejoining the EU, or even more incredibly making it policy to rejoin without one. He did his best right through the last parliament to obfuscate over his position on Brexit, so it would be very naive to believe that all of a sudden he and the Labour Party will commit themselves to a surefire vote loser in the next election. In any event, of course it isn't going to be a scenario whereby we are welcomed back with open arms by the EU. We would have to accept joining the Eurozone, Schengen, rejoining the CAP and the CFP, and paying through the nose towards the running costs of the gravy train.

By the time of the next election, we will have begun to see the fruits of our independence, whereas the EU will be falling apart at the seams, with growing campaigns from other members to follow us out of the door.

[badgerx16]

17 minutes ago, Wes Tender said:

 

By the time of the next election, we will have begun to see the fruits of our independence, whereas the EU will be falling apart at the seams, with growing campaigns from other members to follow us out of the door.

"

Now here you go again
You say you want your freedom
Well, who am I to keep you down
It's only right that you should
Play the way you feel it
But listen carefully
To the sound of your loneliness

Like a heartbeat drives you mad
In the stillness of remembering what you had
And what you lost
And what you had
And what you lost"

[Wes Tender]

1 minute ago, badgerx16 said:

"

Now here you go again
You say you want your freedom
Well, who am I to keep you down
It's only right that you should
Play the way you feel it
But listen carefully
To the sound of your loneliness

Like a heartbeat drives you mad
In the stillness of remembering what you had
And what you lost
And what you had
And what you lost"

Very poetic, but what exactly have I lost and why would I be lonely among the 52%? I'm a heartbeat away from what I have yearned for for the past decades. 😄

[badgerx16]

6 minutes ago, Wes Tender said:

Very poetic, but what exactly have I lost and why would I be lonely among the 52%? I'm a heartbeat away from what I have yearned for for the past decades. 😄

 

Not you personally, but the UK. ( Rumours is the World's greatest 'Dear John' letter ).

Also:

     Be careful of what you wish for.

     ( Aesop's Fables )

Edited 6 November, 2020 by badgerx16

[Lord Duckhunter]

9 hours ago, Sheaf Saint said:

And if any future referendum returns a re-join result, or Starmer wins an election on a manifesto of taking us back in without one, will you take the same advice you have been giving to remainers since 2016 and accept that it's democracy and the will of the people?

No , I’ll cry about it for years, call you all thick twats, and wallow in pious righteousness. 

[badgerx16]

This is from CNN's coverage of the comings and goings at No10;

"It also led to some No 10 staff wondering if this indicates a broader loosening of the Vote Leave grip on Johnson.
"I think something bigger is going on with the EU deal," said one Downing Street insider, referencing the ongoing Brexit negotiations which are approaching their end. The insider suggested a concession from London might be on the cards.
The UK government is still locked in talks with Brussels with less than two months before the scheduled conclusion of the Brexit transition period on December 31, 2020.

As things stand on Brexit, a concession from London would be the simplest route to a breakthrough that would lead to a deal."

 

[Wes Tender]

4 hours ago, badgerx16 said:

This is from CNN's coverage of the comings and goings at No10;

"It also led to some No 10 staff wondering if this indicates a broader loosening of the Vote Leave grip on Johnson.
"I think something bigger is going on with the EU deal," said one Downing Street insider, referencing the ongoing Brexit negotiations which are approaching their end. The insider suggested a concession from London might be on the cards.
The UK government is still locked in talks with Brussels with less than two months before the scheduled conclusion of the Brexit transition period on December 31, 2020.

As things stand on Brexit, a concession from London would be the simplest route to a breakthrough that would lead to a deal."

 

CNN have no more idea of events within No 10 than the BBC have about internal White House events. 

The simplest route to a breakthrough leading to a deal would be via concessions from London? 🤣Those CNN clowns seem to think that we should just roll over and allow the EU to have whatever they want in order to keep us as a vassal colony of theirs If those idiots wouldn't accept the USA making concessions against their national interest in trade deal talks, then why on earth would they expect us to do so? Would the USA accept a trade deal that allowed another nation to prevent them giving state subsidies to their industries if they sought to do so? Would they allow others to have any sort of control over their territorial waters? Would they accept the jurisdiction of a foreign court over their legal system? No, I wouldn't think so, so why would we?

[badgerx16]

[buctootim]

Cummings has gone. Is it Christmas already?? 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/11/13/boris-johnson-dominic-cummings-carrie-symonds-brexit-latest/

 

The tosspot couldn't leave quietly. Had to be photographed going through the front doors carrying a box. The fact Johnson didnt direct him to slip away through the back door for the sake of team morale and media management speaks volumes. 

Edited 13 November, 2020 by buctootim

[badgerx16]

5 minutes ago, buctootim said:

Cummings has gone. Is it Christmas already?? 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/11/13/boris-johnson-dominic-cummings-carrie-symonds-brexit-latest/

 

The tosspot couldn't leave quietly. Had to be photographed going through the front doors carrying a box. The fact Johnson didnt direct him to slip away through the back door for the sake of team morale and media management speaks volumes. 

Do you think Carrie had her Princess Diana "There are 3 of us in this marriage" moment ?

[ecuk268]

6 minutes ago, buctootim said:

Cummings has gone. Is it Christmas already?? 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/11/13/boris-johnson-dominic-cummings-carrie-symonds-brexit-latest/

 

The tosspot couldn't leave quietly. Had to be photographed going through the front doors carrying a box. The fact Johnson didnt direct him to slip away through the back door for the sake of team morale and media management speaks volumes. 

With Dom gone it looks like Carrie's running the country now.

[buctootim]

10 minutes ago, ecuk268 said:

With Dom gone it looks like Carrie's running the country now.

I know that's tongue in cheek but its looking as though she really does wield huge influence. I used to work for a marine conservation organisation who were very adept at finding ways to manipulate politicians into doing what they wanted on ocean conservation. They recruited Carrie last year as a consultant. Today's other less noticed piece of news was the creation of a massive marine protected area around Tristan da Cuhna, one of the largest in the world. Two big results in one day for Carrie...

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/13/tiny-atlantic-island-takes-giant-leap-towards-protecting-worlds-oceans

Edited 13 November, 2020 by buctootim

[buctootim]

8 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

Do you think Carrie had her Princess Diana "There are 3 of us in this marriage" moment ?

I think she realised the macho but incompetent boys club was destroying hubbies future. She stepped in to save him - and she certainly seems to be able to read the mood better than he does. 

[Whitey Grandad]

4 hours ago, ecuk268 said:

With Dom gone it looks like Carrie's running the country now.

Carrie on Governing 

[Weston Super Saint]

7 hours ago, Whitey Grandad said:

Carrie on Governing 

Cummins and goins

[Verbal]

9 hours ago, Whitey Grandad said:

Carrie on Governing 

Leave means leave apparently - with a collapsing cardboard box.  What a metaphor for Brexiter wet dreams. 

[Wes Tender]

Why all these posts about Cummings on the Brexit thread? There's a perfectly good Boris Johnson thread which would be more appropriate. Unless of course there is some idiotic, misguided assumption that his departure will somehow affect the WA negotiations. It seems as if some believe the claptrap conclusions put out by the remoaner media that we will be desperate to cave in to the EU's demands and drop our red lines to gain a FTA with them. If the EU are also stupid enough to believe that to be the case, then they are in for a rude awakening when we hold firm as the clock ticks away towards WTO.