Brexit - Post Match Reaction

[Wes Tender]

You can generally find syndicated stories elsewhere;

https://www.newscabal.co.uk/brussels-warns-uk-over-future-trade-relationship-ambitions/

 

I watched the interview with von der Leyen on You Tube by the Telegraph. A nice bit of sabre rattling from her in advance of the serious stuff post 31st January when we are finally out. Exactly what one would expect, them laying out the terms and conditions on their side, a perfectly normal negotiating procedure. Boris of course has already done the same on a couple of aspects, the time limit and divergence of standards. As she says, with compromise over these negotiations comes the reality that the trade agreement and ties between us and them will be less strong. So be it. Thankfully, we don't have the terminally useless May and Robbins negotiating on our behalf, and our negotiating hand is considerably strengthened since 12th December. Now that we have made it clear that we will leave on WTO terms if a free trade deal is not arranged with the EU by 31st December, and that the deadline will not be extended beyond that date, we have taken the initiative for the first time since we signed Article 50. Von der Leyen suggesting that perhaps we ought to wait until June/July before deciding on whether there is enough time to conclude a satisfactory deal without a time extension is pointless. What part of the statement that the deadline will not be extended does she not understand? Those tactics worked with the hung parliament allowing extension after extension and Benn's surrender act, but the whole political landscape has changed and they need to get used to the idea very quickly.

[Batman]

anyone think the stop brexit man is a bit 'tapped'?

 

[Lord Duckhunter]

anyone think the stop brexit man is a bit 'tapped'?

 

 

Didn’t that helmet lose his deposit at the last election. The people have spoken, now **** off....

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[shurlock]

Boris agreed to a border in his own country in order to safeguard the EU’s single market

 

#playingablinder

[Wes Tender]

https://brexitcentral.com/the-irish-government-now-ought-to-prioritise-securing-a-swift-uk-eu-free-trade-agreement/

 

Yes, Boris did play a blinder getting rid of the backstop and reopening the WA talks, things that the EU stated could not be done.

 

Next on the agenda to be shot down is von der Leyen's claim that "Without the free movement of people, you cannot have the free movement of capital, goods and services".

 

Boris has already made clear that the free movement of people is finished, so we'll have to wait and see whether he sticks to that and what the repercussions actually will be.

[aintforever]

https://brexitcentral.com/the-irish-government-now-ought-to-prioritise-securing-a-swift-uk-eu-free-trade-agreement/

 

Yes, Boris did play a blinder getting rid of the backstop and reopening the WA talks, things that the EU stated could not be done.

 

Next on the agenda to be shot down is von der Leyen's claim that "Without the free movement of people, you cannot have the free movement of capital, goods and services".

 

Boris has already made clear that the free movement of people is finished, so we'll have to wait and see whether he sticks to that and what the repercussions actually will be.

 

Not really playing a blinder though is it, he just ripped up one of the red lines and stuffed a border through the middle of the UK. May could have got a deal ages ago if she could just ignore one of the red lines.

 

Playing a blinder would have been keeping the UK as a whole and coming up with that mythical technological solutions to the Irish border you lot kept on banging on about.

[Wes Tender]

Not really playing a blinder though is it, he just ripped up one of the red lines and stuffed a border through the middle of the UK. May could have got a deal ages ago if she could just ignore one of the red lines.

 

Playing a blinder would have been keeping the UK as a whole and coming up with that mythical technological solutions to the Irish border you lot kept on banging on about.

 

May could have got a decent deal had she stuck to the thrust of her Lancaster House speech. But Boris was left with doing the best he could to undo as much of the mess as possible that the incompetent Vicar's daughter created in cahoots with the remainer Civil Servant Ollie Robbins, when between the two of them they allowed the EU to prepare the nearly 600 page WA Treaty and the much shorter Political Declaration. The waters were considerably muddied by her ridiculous Chequers deal, the archetypal bad deal that she said would be worse than no deal.

 

So yes, under the circumstances Boris is playing a blinder having got shot of the Irish backstop and reopening the WA. As that article correctly points out, the whole Irish border question was cynically used merely as a device to stop Brexit, and as long as there was no prospect of us leaving without a deal, (thanks to the likes of Benn and his surrender treaty), or as long as the process could be delayed until a second referendum could be enacted, then there was no incentive for Ireland or the EU to soften their policy on the border.

 

In many ways, we have those remoaner MPs who pulled all those strokes in the House, to thank for the current situation. Had they not played fast and loose with the democratic will of the referendum decision by all of their devious tactics to delay it, legislating to weaken our hand by not allowing a no deal outcome, then Boris would not have the stonking great majority now to enable him to negotiate with a far stronger hand. As soon as Boris was elected, Varadkar realised that the game was up and that Ireland's trade and economy would have taken a massive hit without a EU free trade deal with us, so he rapidly came to his senses. Once that trade deal is in place, then the border situation becomes far less of a problem. Had May had the guts and the nous to have insisted on a trade deal being discussed simultaneously with the settlement payment and the citizenship issue, as the terms of Article 50 dictated as I understand it, then the border issue would never have been the problem it became.

 

As I say, at last we have the whip hand for the first time in these negotiations and the utterances of von der Leyen about what is or is not possible sound increasingly like platitudes and hot air.

[OldNick]

I thought Brexit was done?

 

https://www.ft.com/content/a0190f9a-3206-11ea-a329-0bcf87a328f2

I cant read the article but are you saying that Brexit is not going to be done. That BJ wil risk all his goodwill by not following it through?

[badgerx16]

I cant read the article but are you saying that Brexit is not going to be done. That BJ wil risk all his goodwill by not following it through?

The story is easily found elsewhere, ( see above ).

[Guided Missile]

Morning, campers.

Yet more good news:

Top finance directors reported the biggest jump in confidence on record during the fourth quarter after the election broke the Brexit deadlock and ended the threat of a far-left government, a Deloitte survey revealed. More than half of chief financial officers were more optimistic about their company’s prospects compared to three months earlier, up sharply from just 9pc in the third quarter. Confidence is now at the highest level recorded during the 11 years in which Deloitte has conducted the survey. Brexit has dropped to third place in blue-chip finance chiefs' list of concerns, falling behind weak demand in the UK and geopolitical risks. Economists expect growth to rebound from 2021 as lost business investment starts to return. The Conservatives' victory also looks set to put Britain’s jobs growth back on track after permanent hiring climbed for the first time in a year, according to a separate survey by the Recruitment & Employment Confederation and KPMG.

#projectjoy

[badgerx16]

Morning, campers.

Yet more good news:

 

#projectjoy

Interestingly, the Deloitte report states that "66% of CFOs expect the overall environment for business in the long term to be worse if the UK leaves the EU, down from a high of 83% in the second quarter of 2019."

( The results are 66% expect it to be worse, 18% expect it to be better: in Q3 76%/8%: in Q2 83%/7% ). So, perhaps an improving picture, but not quite as rosy as the Telegraph paints.

Edited 10 January, 2020 by badgerx16

[shurlock]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/13/brexit-irish-border-uk-northern-ireland

 

Isn’t Brexit done yet?

[Wes Tender]

Remoaners continue to believe that the country didn't really want us to leave the EU and that the election result giving the Tories a stonking majority wasn't really the electorate's mandate to get Brexit done. An opinion poll in the Not Independent commissioned by some second rate outfit called BMG, on a titchy sample of just 1508, concludes that 52% against 48%, (the reverse of the referendum result) wanted to remain in the EU. What are we to do? Is there still time for Boris to do a complete about face and revoke Article 50, or at least extend it until a second/third referendum can be held? Or will we just have to accept that failing that, on the basis of this poll a campaign to rejoin can commence on February 1st? Village idiot Steve Bray had obviously been tipped the wink on this, which is why he has remained on College Green wearing his stupid outfit, and no doubt he will now be joined by all the other remoaners who have nothing better to do with their lives.

 

Or perhaps the Independent are making themselves a laughing stock if they believe that some poxy poll has any more relevance since the election result than the Labour Party's attempts to amend the WAB.

[aintforever]

Remoaners continue to believe that the country didn't really want us to leave the EU and that the election result giving the Tories a stonking majority wasn't really the electorate's mandate to get Brexit done. An opinion poll in the Not Independent commissioned by some second rate outfit called BMG, on a titchy sample of just 1508, concludes that 52% against 48%, (the reverse of the referendum result) wanted to remain in the EU. What are we to do? Is there still time for Boris to do a complete about face and revoke Article 50, or at least extend it until a second/third referendum can be held? Or will we just have to accept that failing that, on the basis of this poll a campaign to rejoin can commence on February 1st? Village idiot Steve Bray had obviously been tipped the wink on this, which is why he has remained on College Green wearing his stupid outfit, and no doubt he will now be joined by all the other remoaners who have nothing better to do with their lives.

 

Or perhaps the Independent are making themselves a laughing stock if they believe that some poxy poll has any more relevance since the election result than the Labour Party's attempts to amend the WAB.

 

To be fair the Tories got a stonking majority because the opposition were a bunch of unelectable Marxists, and even then, more votes went to parties who favoured a second referendum or cancelling Brexit altogether.

[sadoldgit]

It’s ok. When the old Little Englanders die off we will be back in again.

[buctootim]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/13/brexit-irish-border-uk-northern-ireland

 

Isn’t Brexit done yet?

 

Nearly. Just waiting for the German car companies to start hammering on the door.

[Wes Tender]

To be fair the Tories got a stonking majority because the opposition were a bunch of unelectable Marxists, and even then, more votes went to parties who favoured a second referendum or cancelling Brexit altogether.

 

The election was effectively the fourth opportunity to decide on whether we stayed in the EU or left it. The first of course being the actual 2016 referendum itself, which gave a clear vote to leave. The second was the GE in 2017, where the majority of parties pledged in their manifestos that they would honour the referendum vote. The third was the EU elections where the biggest number of seats was won by a party whose sole purpose was to leave the EU and then in the latest GE the main party with a policy to leave won a stonking majority, when the other main parties had stood on manifestos to leave or hold another referendum. Of course, had the original referendum gone the other way, then the remoaners would have accused leavers of being bad losers for raking over the coals for years afterwards and bleating about how unfair it all was after the event, but they lack the self awareness to understand this. Somehow, losers consent doesn't apply to them.

[Wes Tender]

It’s ok. When the old Little Englanders die off we will be back in again.

 

You'll be dead long before we rejoin, Soggy. No doubt you'll whinge about the decision to leave right up until you draw your last breath though.

[aintforever]

The election was effectively the fourth opportunity to decide on whether we stayed in the EU or left it. The first of course being the actual 2016 referendum itself, which gave a clear vote to leave. The second was the GE in 2017, where the majority of parties pledged in their manifestos that they would honour the referendum vote. The third was the EU elections where the biggest number of seats was won by a party whose sole purpose was to leave the EU and then in the latest GE the main party with a policy to leave won a stonking majority, when the other main parties had stood on manifestos to leave or hold another referendum. Of course, had the original referendum gone the other way, then the remoaners would have accused leavers of being bad losers for raking over the coals for years afterwards and bleating about how unfair it all was after the event, but they lack the self awareness to understand this. Somehow, losers consent doesn't apply to them.

 

Doesn't change the fact that more people voted for parties that wanted to stop Brexit or hold a second vote, despite one of those parties being pretty much unelectable.

 

The choice we had at the last election wasn't Bexit yes or No. It was Bexit yes, or maybe no but with a Marxist government led by an IRA-loving antisemite.

[sadoldgit]

You'll be dead long before we rejoin, Soggy. No doubt you'll whinge about the decision to leave right up until you draw your last breath though.

 

I expect you are right Wes. But don’t worry, although I doubt if I will ever change my mind about what a mistake this is, I am sure I will find other things to whinge about soon.

[Wes Tender]

 

There are people as misguided as you in the EU parliament, Soggy. Once we're out, we're never going back.

[Wes Tender]

Lord Grieves, Lib Dumb Peer:

"I am fearful that on 31 January some things may happen in some places that could be reminiscent of events in Germany in the early 1930s.”[/quote}

 

What particularly qualified this stupid old duffer to be a suitable candidate for the House of Lords? What with other barmy peers such as Lord Adonis, the time has come to look seriously at replacing the HOL with an elected body more in tune with 21st century politics.

[badgerx16]

Lord Grieves, Lib Dumb Peer:

"I am fearful that on 31 January some things may happen in some places that could be reminiscent of events in Germany in the early 1930s.”[/quote}

 

What particularly qualified this stupid old duffer to be a suitable candidate for the House of Lords? What with other barmy peers such as Lord Adonis, the time has come to look seriously at replacing the HOL with an elected body more in tune with 21st century politics.

So you don't think there is any chance he may be correct ?

[Lord Duckhunter]

Lord Grieves, Lib Dumb Peer:

 

So you don't think there is any chance he may be correct ?

 

Nope, not in The UK. Within certain countries in The EU maybe, but not in tolerant outward looking UK.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Wes Tender]

So you don't think there is any chance he may be correct ?

 

Did you think that me calling him a stupid old duffer inferred that I did? You're always going to get a small percentage of nutters across the political spectrum, but to draw comparisons with Germany in the thirties and the rise of Naziism just because we are leaving the EU is just plain barmy.

[badgerx16]

....tolerant outward looking UK.

 

LOL

[shurlock]

Did you think that me calling him a stupid old duffer inferred that I did? You're always going to get a small percentage of nutters across the political spectrum, but to draw comparisons with Germany in the thirties and the rise of Naziism just because we are leaving the EU is just plain barmy.

 

Stupid old duffer? Takes one to know one, I guess.

[Wes Tender]

Stupid old duffer? Takes one to know one, I guess.

 

Are you being self-deprecating there, Gavyn? That makes a change.

[sadoldgit]

 

There are people as misguided as you in the EU parliament, Soggy. Once we're out, we're never going back.

 

Really? They younger generation aren’t as blinkered as the old duffers who can’t understand that we don’t have an Empire anymore. I probably won’t live to see it but it would not surprise me to see us back in sometime.

[badgerx16]

... we don’t have an Empire anymore.

We still have Gibraltar, the Falklands, and Anguila.

[ashnats]

We still have Gibraltar, the Falklands, and Anguila.

 

Don't forget the Chagos Islands...

[badgerx16]

Don't forget the Chagos Islands...

Which belong to Mauritius according to the UN.

[Lord Duckhunter]

Really? They younger generation aren’t as blinkered as the old duffers who can’t understand that we don’t have an Empire anymore. I probably won’t live to see it but it would not surprise me to see us back in sometime.

 

Don’t talk pony man.

 

The EU will collapse in the next 25 years. It’s unsustainable.

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[ashnats]

Which belong to Mauritius according to the UN.

 

Not without a fight...

[sadoldgit]

Don’t talk pony man.

 

The EU will collapse in the next 25 years. It’s unsustainable.

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

What will be unsustainable will be dozens of countries thinking that they can go it alone like us when they are already in the second largest market in the world. It is in everyone’s interest to see that it works, including ours.

[hypochondriac]

What will be unsustainable will be dozens of countries thinking that they can go alone like us when they are already in the second largest market in the world. It is in everyone’s interest to see that it works, including ours.

 

Disagree. I hope for an EU collapse and then a close trading bloc between separate countries which doesn't involve ever closer political union.

[Wes Tender]

Disagree. I hope for an EU collapse and then a close trading bloc between separate countries which doesn't involve ever closer political union.

 

What, a Common Market, as it were?

[shurlock]

Glad to see characteristically strong understandings of how modern trade works

[sadoldgit]

Disagree. I hope for an EU collapse and then a close trading bloc between separate countries which doesn't involve ever closer political union.

 

You don’t believe that the EU has contributed to the outbreak of peace in Europe since 1945 then?

[Weston Super Saint]

You don’t believe that the EU has contributed to the outbreak of peace in Europe since 1945 then?

 

The outbreak of peace? Like it's some sort of disease?

[sadoldgit]

The outbreak of peace? Like it's some sort of disease?

 

It was a tongue in cheek remark, but I do wish that peace was contagious. We have been very lucky to live in relatively peaceful times (for us). The world is shrinking all the time and narrow, introspective thinking of the 19th century no longer serves us in the 21st century. It makes more sense to work more closely with our neighbours (and I mean that for all European countries) than it does to go back to the self interests of nationalism. The EU may not be perefect, but it is far better for us all than that old system of alliances that not only divided us, but brought about devastation across Europe and beyond.

[hypochondriac]

You don’t believe that the EU has contributed to the outbreak of peace in Europe since 1945 then?

I think modern society and mutually assured destruction can achieve that in the future without the EU.

[sadoldgit]

Given that the nuclear deterrent did stop Argentina invading the Falklands, didn’t stop the ethnic cleansing in Eastern Europe and has had no effect on the conflicts in the Middle East, I don’t have a great deal of faith in the MAD concept. Would you expect anyone in Europe to launch nuclear weapons next door to themselves?

[hypochondriac]

Given that the nuclear deterrent did stop Argentina invading the Falklands, didn’t stop the ethnic cleansing in Eastern Europe and has had no effect on the conflicts in the Middle East, I don’t have a great deal of faith in the MAD concept. Would you expect anyone in Europe to launch nuclear weapons next door to themselves?

I don't think we will descend into warring accross Europe simply because political union is no longer a thing. I mean it used to just be a common market and there wasn't war then.

[sadoldgit]

We probably won’t. But European nations have been a lot closer since the formation Common Market and the EU. Moves back to nationalism and all that follows with pursuing national interests takes us right back to times when conflict of interests can lead to instability. The more tribes you have the greater the chances of tribal conflict.

[Plastic]

Has brexit cost more than our total previous contribution to the EU, or is this more ‘pony’?

https://apple.news/AzSC2TP2eS4CWXfi5xDsIGQ

[Fan The Flames]

Disagree. I hope for an EU collapse and then a close trading bloc between separate countries which doesn't involve ever closer political union.

 

Then would you campaign to rejoin?

[Wes Tender]

Then would you campaign to rejoin?

 

It wouldn't be the EU then, would it?

[shurlock]

A quick primer on trade for dummies and stupid old duffers.

 

I. If you believe in free trade, then the Common Market is a sideshow.

II. Once upon a time, tariffs used to be the main impediment to trade - hence the emergence of the Common Market. However, thanks to global and regional efforts over the past half century, tariffs have fallen to a point where in most cases they are trivial.

III. Today the real barrier to trade is regulation - the fact that businesses must deal with overlapping, conflicting and complex regulations whenever they trade across borders. Complying with different rules of the game pushes up the cost of exporting and reduces business activity.

IV. Regulatory alignment is a way of reducing these costs. It also seeks to promote competition by integrating a market that would otherwise be fragmented and inefficiently small. Note alignment is a relative concept: sometimes it’s prescriptive; in other cases, it’s very loose, leaving regulatees plenty of discretion on how to meet outcomes.

V. Either way, regulatory alignment is inherently political. A country’s regulation says a lot about its values, how it balances risk and safety, price and quality, individualism and collectivism as well as the priority it gives to different stakeholders, including the environment.

VI. In other words, getting countries with different preferences to align on a regulatory standard, regardless whether it is loose or prescriptive, implies processes to manage and resolve these competing demands. That could be done by fiat - or it could be done as fairly and democratically as possible. Enter political institutions and impartial enforcement mechanisms to ensure countries are subsequently keeping their word.

 

Invoking the Common Market is basically a giveaway that you’re clueless about trade. Likewise it is clueless to champion free trade without understanding where it necessarily leads you in the 21st century i.e. regulatory alignment when most of the low-hanging fruit has been picked.

Edited 17 January, 2020 by shurlock

[hypochondriac]

Then would you campaign to rejoin?

I'd sign up to a strictly trade based bloc absolutely.