Brexit - Post Match Reaction

[OldNick]

Further evidence if any evidence were needed that you like so many Brexiters don’t like the modern world, although I do have a Twitter account it is dormant I just haven’t got engaged with it, but to dismiss it as vacuous is in itself vacuous.

In other news major US Banks and Financial institutions reiterate that Brexit will have a damaging impact on London as financial centre as they judge the EU will not allow the current pass-porting to continue, the continued wishful thinking of a large proportion of Brexiters that the EU will give the UK everything it wants s just that, wishful thinking.

I am /was a very pro stay voter, but we have to get behind the bizarre decision to leave for all our futures. Us banks and financial institutions may have their own agendas of course. I expect that the City will get the best of the deal as banks do and the government knows that we need it to be strong and so will get special treatment. Its the rest of us that will take the worst.

[buctootim]

As you very well know, I'm a Conservative and I'm afraid that I don't have a Tw*tter account and can't even be bothered to find out how it works. It seems pretty vacuous to me.

 

Why should Brexiteers worry about Switzerland's dealings with the EU? We aren't remotely like Switzerland. Even Timmy has finally recognised that we will almost certainly not be going down the Switzerland or Norway route in our future trading arrangements with the EU.

 

Well done Wes. Another spectacular inability to comprehend what is being said. My position hasn't changed since before the referendum. I think we will end up with the Switzerland or Norway deal. simply because the alternative of pulling out of the single market will be too damaging to contemplate. May knows that, she's just casting around to find the best way to make continuation of free movement of labour acceptable to the electorate. Imo there will be some tiny figleaf compromises probably requiring firm job offers and no serious criminal convictions which will allow the Government to trumpet a work permit scheme which gives back control (huzzah!) even though they'll be issued to anyone from the EU who asks.

 

 

ps Twitter is a means of communication, like the telephone or letter. Garbage in garbage out is the apt phrase. If Twitter is vacuous its down to whoever tweeted and their followers, not the medium.

Edited 21 September, 2016 by buctootim

[Guided Missile]

Brexit has had 'no major effect' on economy so far, as reported by the ONS here.

[Wes Tender]

Well done Wes. Another spectacular inability to comprehend what is being said. My position hasn't changed since before the referendum. I think we will end up with the Switzerland or Norway deal. simply because the alternative of pulling out of the single market will be too damaging to contemplate. May knows that, she's just casting around to find the best way to make continuation of free movement of labour acceptable to the electorate. Imo there will be some tiny figleaf compromises probably requiring firm job offers and no serious criminal convictions which will allow the Government to trumpet a work permit scheme which gives back control (huzzah!) even though they'll be issued to anyone from the EU who asks.

 

 

ps Twitter is a means of communication, like the telephone or letter. Garbage in garbage out is the apt phrase. If Twitter is vacuous its down to whoever tweeted and their followers, not the medium.

 

You were wittering on about tariffs on car imports of 10% which is something associated with the WTO, so a reasonable conclusion to reach. There is no way that we will go for a Norway or Switzerland deal. The freedom of movement of peoples will preclude that happening and neither will any fudge deal such as you have suggested be allowed. That sort of fig-leaf solution is what Cameron ought to have gone for before the Referendum and it might then have pushed the Remain vote over the line - just about. Now that we have voted to leave, it is not an option. There is already an impetus towards a cross party pressure group being formed to ensure that we will not accept the freedom of movement of peoples as part of any trade deal negotiated with the EU and if it is attempted in any form, they will stir up trouble for May from within her party and outside. The Brexit vote is an opportunity to make UKIP a political irrelevance if we go about it the right way, but a fudge like the one you are suggesting will have them back stronger than before.

 

That is what is concentrating Theresa May's mind.

[moonraker]

You were wittering on about tariffs on car imports of 10% which is something associated with the WTO, so a reasonable conclusion to reach. There is no way that we will go for a Norway or Switzerland deal. The freedom of movement of peoples will preclude that happening and neither will any fudge deal such as you have suggested be allowed. That sort of fig-leaf solution is what Cameron ought to have gone for before the Referendum and it might then have pushed the Remain vote over the line - just about. Now that we have voted to leave, it is not an option. There is already an impetus towards a cross party pressure group being formed to ensure that we will not accept the freedom of movement of peoples as part of any trade deal negotiated with the EU and if it is attempted in any form, they will stir up trouble for May from within her party and outside. The Brexit vote is an opportunity to make UKIP a political irrelevance if we go about it the right way, but a fudge like the one you are suggesting will have them back stronger than before.

 

That is what is concentrating Theresa May's mind.

 

Please clarify one thing for me, the referendum question was about leaving the EU not freedom of movement. A number of Brexiters have attempted to argue that the referendum was not decided on immigration, therfore why are so many Brexiters arguing that the ending of freedom of movement is essential in leaving the EU.

[Wes Tender]

Further evidence if any evidence were needed that you like so many Brexiters don’t like the modern world, although I do have a Twitter account it is dormant I just haven’t got engaged with it, but to dismiss it as vacuous is in itself vacuous.

 

I can't be bothered with Tw*tter as a form of communication, so that is conclusive proof that I and many Brexiters don't like the modern World? I prefer to actually speak to somebody on the phone rather than sending a message by text or Tw*tter.

 

You love the modern world because you have a Tw*tter account, but it is dormant. Saying that Tw*tter is vacuous is vacuous itself, you say? So saying that it is brilliant would be a brilliant remark?

What's dormant is your thought process.

[Wes Tender]

Please clarify one thing for me, the referendum question was about leaving the EU not freedom of movement. A number of Brexiters have attempted to argue that the referendum was not decided on immigration alone, therfore why are so many Brexiters arguing that the ending of freedom of movement is essential in leaving the EU.

 

You missed out a little word, rather conveniently. I have inserted it for you and highlighted it for clarity. There were several reasons given during the Referendum campaign both for staying and leaving. As the freedom of movement of peoples was one of the major ones featured in the Leave campaign, it was plenty clear enough to those that voted to leave that it was a red line issue.

 

Would you have preferred the ballot paper to have covered all of the issues over several pages, or for there to have been separate policy items that could be ticked according to the voters' preferences?

[moonraker]

You missed out a little word, rather conveniently. I have inserted it for you and highlighted it for clarity. There were several reasons given during the Referendum campaign both for staying and leaving. As the freedom of movement of peoples was one of the major ones featured in the Leave campaign, it was plenty clear enough to those that voted to leave that it was a red line issue.

 

Would you have preferred the ballot paper to have covered all of the issues over several pages, or for there to have been separate policy items that could be ticked according to the voters' preferences?

Good point Wes, however this is the heart of the problem, Brexit means many different things to the many different people who voted for it. The remain vote was for one thing only staying in the EU, there were no promises other than remaining. Once the fine details are sorted out and we know exactly what Brexit means a fair proportion of Brexiters will feel disenfranchised, then what?

[Wes Tender]

Good point Wes, however this is the heart of the problem, Brexit means many different things to the many different people who voted for it. The remain vote was for one thing only staying in the EU, there were no promises other than remaining. Once the fine details are sorted out and we know exactly what Brexit means a fair proportion of Brexiters will feel disenfranchised, then what?

 

You delude yourself if you believe that a Remain vote was just one thing, the continuance of the status quo. It would be seen as a green light for further progress towards a United States of Europe for a start. Anybody who voted for the original Common Market and has witnessed what it has since become, can have no doubt of that.

 

So some of the electorate might feel disenfranchised once the details of our future relationship with the EU is sorted out? So what? Don't you think that there was a substantial proportion of the electorate who felt disenfranchised by our membership of the EU project?

[badgerx16]

Brexit has had 'no major effect' on economy so far, as reported by the ONS here.

 

Because bugger all has happened so far. Once we trigger Article 50, and start trying to get our own way in trade negotiations, then we'll see if there's an impact.

[aintforever]

Because bugger all has happened so far. Once we trigger Article 50, and start trying to get our own way in trade negotiations, then we'll see if there's an impact.

 

Confidence seems remarkably high considering we will soon set the wheels in motion though. Wasn't there supposed to be some sort crisis in confidence or something? Emergency budget, world war 3, house prices through the floor?

[Johnny Bognor]

Good point Wes, however this is the heart of the problem, Brexit means many different things to the many different people who voted for it. The remain vote was for one thing only staying in the EU, there were no promises other than remaining. Once the fine details are sorted out and we know exactly what Brexit means a fair proportion of Brexiters will feel disenfranchised, then what?

 

 

Have to disagree

 

For some remainers, it was staying in the single market at all costs

 

For some remainers, they want to be part of a federalist Europe

 

For some socialist remainers, they see the EU as keeping tabs on the tories to hold them back from unfettered toryism

 

For some (myself included originally), reasons included better the devil you know, play it safe, don't rock the boat etc

 

For others, free movement between countries, cheap flights, cheap fags etc etc. The list goes on...

 

In fact there were as many different issues for remain as there were for leave, if not more. ..

Edited 21 September, 2016 by Johnny Bognor

[Verbal]

Who'd be up for this if it ever happened? I certainly would.

 

A Scottish friend of mine who works for the European Commission told me last week that there is a proposal in Brussels for the EU to offer special EU nationality and a EU passport to those UK citizens who do not agree with Brexit. it is still a proposal at the moment but it has not been dismissed. Such a passport would allow holders freedom of movement and the right to settle in any EU country, regardless of what arrangements the UK decides upon. Obviously, it would require approval by the 27 EU countries. There would be no problem with the UK government because the UK allows dual nationality. The idea was first mooted as a way to allow UK citizens who work for the European Commission to continue working and for the inhabitants of Gibraltar to continue working in Spain but it would apply to all UK citizens too.

[buctootim]

Who'd be up for this if it ever happened? I certainly would.

 

I might get three - EU, Irish and British.

[Whitey Grandad]

Confidence seems remarkably high considering we will soon set the wheels in motion though. Wasn't there supposed to be some sort crisis in confidence or something? Emergency budget, world war 3, house prices through the floor?

 

Mixed mesages at the moment and of course, we ain't heard nothing yet. Just wait unitl we start to hear what sort of Brexit we shall be given and then see what happens.

 

 

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/small-businesses-confidence-sinks-amid-brexit-fears-wbhhk2tbq

[buctootim]

A turf war in the government is unsettling businesses, who are unsure about how the UK’s negotiating strategy for Brexit will develop

“One strand is gung-ho and wants to drive on without fully understanding the consequences, the other is more measured.” The CBI is so frustrated by the lack of a clear communication channel with the government on Brexit that its director-general, Carolyn Fairbairn is ringing round to marshal support for a formal request for a single contact point to be established. The CBI and several of the business leaders who met with Mr Hammond on Wednesday believe the Treasury to be the most obvious choice for such a single point of contact....... Business demands essentially boiled down to access to the single market “without any of the bad bits”, in effect a retention of financial services’ passporting rights, intellectual property protection and access to the single market — but with no interference from the EU on issues such as pay.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/1f91316c-8099-11e6-bc52-0c7211ef3198

Edited 22 September, 2016 by buctootim

[Whitey Grandad]

Who'd be up for this if it ever happened? I certainly would.

 

Absolutely, yes please, where do I sign up?

[Guided Missile]

I vote we ban dual passports and ship the traitors out, to whatever EU country they want to go to, with none of the benefits the UK provides. After all, the benefits were won fighting a war half of the EU, the other half being defeated in a week in a flutter of white flags.

[CB Fry]

I vote we ban dual passports and ship the traitors out, to whatever EU country they want to go to, with none of the benefits the UK provides. After all, the benefits were won fighting a war half of the EU, the other half being defeated in a week in a flutter of white flags.

I think I'd probably hide in an upstairs wardrobe to escape capture from your forces who want to ship me out.

 

Sounds like a great plan though, and definitely what the allies had in mind for the British people back then.

[Verbal]

I vote we ban dual passports and ship the traitors out, to whatever EU country they want to go to, with none of the benefits the UK provides. After all, the benefits were won fighting a war half of the EU, the other half being defeated in a week in a flutter of white flags.

 

Mustn't go Godwin

Mustn't go Godwin

Mustn't go Godwin...

[so22saint]

I think I'd probably hide in an upstairs wardrobe to escape capture from your forces who want to ship me out.

 

Sounds like a great plan though, and definitely what the allies had in mind for the British people back then.

 

Exactly, my grandad fought in the BEF and then through the Middle and Far Easts to ensure good old British Fascism had a chance against that foreign Fascism rubbish.

 

As Brexit is all about Freedom, I think we should be free to have as many passports as we like - as long as we are paying our UK taxes what's the problem (and what's the problem with my Grand Cayman passport exactly)

[Wes Tender]

Absolutely, yes please, where do I sign up?

You're OK at your age. But all the kids who think that Brexit has ruined their future are the ones who need to consider the consequences of taking out EU dual citizenship, as they will be conscripted into the Euro-Army when they unsuspectingly take their first European holiday following their 17th birthday.

[Whitey Grandad]

You're OK at your age. But all the kids who think that Brexit has ruined their future are the ones who need to consider the consequences of taking out EU dual citizenship, as they will be conscripted into the Euro-Army when they unsuspectingly take their first European holiday following their 17th birthday.

 

Yet more Brexit scaremongering.

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/if-you-re-voting-for-brexit-because-you-think-british-troops-will-be-called-up-to-an-eu-army-you-ve-a7024221.html

[so22saint]

Yet more Brexit scaremongering.

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/if-you-re-voting-for-brexit-because-you-think-british-troops-will-be-called-up-to-an-eu-army-you-ve-a7024221.html

 

It was until we said we're leaving anyway - we are a godsend to the Federalist nutters

[Guided Missile]

Yet more Brexit scaremongering.

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/if-you-re-voting-for-brexit-because-you-think-british-troops-will-be-called-up-to-an-eu-army-you-ve-a7024221.html

Keep up, Grandad. That article was from May. Here's one from September 14th, post Brexit:

 

European Leaders Discuss Plan for European Army "We are going to move towards an EU army much faster than people believe."

 

by Soeren Kern

September 14, 2016 at 5:00 am

 

Critics say that the creation of a European army, a long-held goal of European federalists, would entail an unprecedented transfer of sovereignty from European nation states to unelected bureaucrats in Brussels, the de facto capital of the EU.

 

Others say that efforts to move forward on European defense integration show that European leaders have learned little from Brexit, and are determined to continue their quest to build a European superstate regardless of opposition from large segments of the European public.

 

"Those of us who have always warned about Europe's defense ambitions have always been told not to worry... We're always told not to worry about the next integration and then it happens. We've been too often conned before and we must not be conned again." — Liam Fox, former British defense secretary.

 

"Creation of EU defense structures, separate from NATO, will only lead to division between transatlantic partners at a time when solidarity is needed in the face of many difficult and dangerous threats to the democracies." — Geoffrey Van Orden, UK Conservative Party defense spokesman.

 

European leaders are discussing "far-reaching proposals" to build a pan-European military, according to a French defense ministry document leaked to the German newspaper, the Süddeutsche Zeitung. The efforts are part of plans to relaunch the European Union at celebrations in Rome next March marking the 60th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome, which established the European Community. The document confirms rumors that European officials are rushing ahead with defense integration now that Britain — the leading military power in Europe — will be exiting the 28-member European Union.

Edited 23 September, 2016 by Guided Missile

[moonraker]

You're OK at your age. But all the kids who think that Brexit has ruined their future are the ones who need to consider the consequences of taking out EU dual citizenship, as they will be conscripted into the Euro-Army when they unsuspectingly take their first European holiday following their 17th birthday.

 

From where have you conjured this, that the highly improbable EU Army will be a conscripted force, but why not start another brexit myth. None of the major military nations in the EU have conscription so why would they re-introduce such a thing.

[Whitey Grandad]

Keep up, Grandad. That article was from May. Here's one from September 14th, post Brexit:

 

I knew it was from May, that's one of the reasons I chose it.

 

You need to understand how to separate the European rhetoric from the European facts. In Europe everybody likes to pretend publicly that they're all in favour of this great cooperation concept but behind the scenes they all know what isn't going to happen. Just because the British tend to say what they mean doesn't mean that everybody else means what they say.

[Wes Tender]

I knew it was from May, that's one of the reasons I chose it.

 

You need to understand how to separate the European rhetoric from the European facts. In Europe everybody likes to pretend publicly that they're all in favour of this great cooperation concept but behind the scenes they all know what isn't going to happen. Just because the British tend to say what they mean doesn't mean that everybody else means what they say.

 

This is all very encouraging as we will shortly embark on our post-Brexit negotiations early next year. What we can bear in mind right from the outset, is that all this rhetoric from the likes of Juncker about how the EU needs to make an example of us, no access to the single market without free movement of peoples, these are just really hollow threats that are not really meant. It is all a facade, they talk tough, but will crumble when push comes to shove.

 

Thanks for the thumbs-up, Whitey.

[Whitey Grandad]

This is all very encouraging as we will shortly embark on our post-Brexit negotiations early next year. What we can bear in mind right from the outset, is that all this rhetoric from the likes of Juncker about how the EU needs to make an example of us, no access to the single market without free movement of peoples, these are just really hollow threats that are not really meant. It is all a facade, they talk tough, but will crumble when push comes to shove.

 

Thanks for the thumbs-up, Whitey.

 

Once again you demonstrate your lack of understanding of how the EU works. Juncker is just a front man, the real decisions are taken behind the scenes.

[Wes Tender]

Once again you demonstrate your lack of understanding of how the EU works. Juncker is just a front man, the real decisions are taken behind the scenes.

 

All of those chosen as negotiators on behalf of the EU for our Brexit are just front men, I'm well aware of that. But that hasn't stopped the Remoaners on here indulging in unbridled delight at the sort of people chosen to do that job and how hard it will be to squeeze an acceptable deal out of them. As you say, although the negotiations will be handled by these front men, it will be the leaders of the main member states who will exert the greatest pressure on the outcome, those from the original Treaty of Rome members having the most influence.

[moonraker]

This is all very encouraging as we will shortly embark on our post-Brexit negotiations early next year. What we can bear in mind right from the outset, is that all this rhetoric from the likes of Juncker about how the EU needs to make an example of us, no access to the single market without free movement of peoples, these are just really hollow threats that are not really meant. It is all a facade, they talk tough, but will crumble when push comes to shove.

 

Thanks for the thumbs-up, Whitey.

 

Like everything else post Brexit there is no certainity about when we will start the formal process. You have taken Boris the Liar at his word, there are many things that May will want sorted before she triggers Article 50 and there aint much sign of any real progress yet. Perhaps it is all being done very covertly with no leaks and everything is tickity boo, at least that would be first for a Tory Government.

[buctootim]

Like everything else post Brexit there is no certainity about when we will start the formal process. You have taken Boris the Liar at his word, there are many things that May will want sorted before she triggers Article 50 and there aint much sign of any real progress yet. Perhaps it is all being done very covertly with no leaks and everything is tickity boo, at least that would be first for a Tory Government.

 

According to some of the media May is trying to get an indication from EU members about what kind of deal they will accept before she decides whether or not to trigger Article 50. Can you imagine it from their point of view? Teenage Britain flumps off announcing its leaving home, but then hangs in the doorway asking if he can still use dad's credit credit card, get his washing done and his rent paid.

[Wes Tender]

Like everything else post Brexit there is no certainity about when we will start the formal process. You have taken Boris the Liar at his word, there are many things that May will want sorted before she triggers Article 50 and there aint much sign of any real progress yet. Perhaps it is all being done very covertly with no leaks and everything is tickity boo, at least that would be first for a Tory Government.

 

We can begin the process whenever we like within reason and it is annoying the hell out of the Eurocrats. Boris hasn't contradicted May as far as I can see and must be privy to the rough schedule that is anticipated.

 

Of course May is playing her cards close to her chest and making the right preparations to put a good negotiating team in place, both for the EU negotiations and for the ensuing World trade agreements. I realise how that irks some on here, who prefer to surmise that she doesn't have a clue about how to go about it all, but I'm confident that as well as planning the most effective strategy, it also strengthens our hand to proceed slowly, as events unfolding in the EU such as elections, financial collapse in the Eurozone and immigration problems could strengthen our hand.

[Wes Tender]

According to some of the media May is trying to get an indication from EU members about what kind of deal they will accept before she decides whether or not to trigger Article 50. Can you imagine it from their point of view? Teenage Britain flumps off announcing its leaving home, but then hangs in the doorway asking if he can still use dad's credit credit card, get his washing done and his rent paid.

 

By some of the media, you probably mean the Guardian, the Not Independent or the Mirror? And you give me a real belly-laugh with your hopeless analogy painting us as the stroppy teenager still wishing to remain tied to mummy's apron strings. We are more akin to the strong-willed and independently minded teenager wishing to break free from the constraints of home life to go out into the big wide World to seek his fortune.

[buctootim]

By some of the media, you probably mean the Guardian, the Not Independent or the Mirror? And you give me a real belly-laugh with your hopeless analogy painting us as the stroppy teenager still wishing to remain tied to mummy's apron strings. We are more akin to the strong-willed and independently minded teenager wishing to break free from the constraints of home life to go out into the big wide World to seek his fortune.

 

Brexit leaders told us it was all about control and building a brave new world, trigger article 50 and strike out on our own. In reality Britain wont leave before the EU tells us what we can have. Ooh, thats showing Johnny Foreigner and their dastardly plots to interfere in our lives.

[moonraker]

We can begin the process whenever we like within reason and it is annoying the hell out of the Eurocrats. Boris hasn't contradicted May as far as I can see and must be privy to the rough schedule that is anticipated.

 

Of course May is playing her cards close to her chest and making the right preparations to put a good negotiating team in place, both for the EU negotiations and for the ensuing World trade agreements. I realise how that irks some on here, who prefer to surmise that she doesn't have a clue about how to go about it all, but I'm confident that as well as planning the most effective strategy, it also strengthens our hand to proceed slowly, as events unfolding in the EU such as elections, financial collapse in the Eurozone and immigration problems could strengthen our hand.

 

I did not say Boris contradicted May I said he is liar and I take anything he says with a pinch of salt. I am not irked by May and actullay think she was a good choice for the task in hand. You make a good point wrt the looming German and French elections, however I think finnacial collapse in the Eurozone is unlikely in any time frame to suit Brexit.

[Guided Missile]

You need to understand how to separate the European rhetoric from the European facts.

I understand what I read. I'll underline the part you need to understand, which has nothing to do with "rhetoric":

European leaders are discussing "far-reaching proposals" to build a pan-European military, according to a French defense ministry document leaked to the German newspaper, theSüddeutsche Zeitung.

The French are worried, as usual, about their military standing in Europe and as they don't have the UK's petticoat to hide behind when it kicks off with Russia, they are looking towards the rest of the EU. That's not rhetoric. It's what the French do.

[Whitey Grandad]

I understand what I read. I'll underline the part you need to understand, which has nothing to do with "rhetoric":

 

The French are worried, as usual, about their military standing in Europe and as they don't have the UK's petticoat to hide behind when it kicks off with Russia, they are looking towards the rest of the EU. That's not rhetoric. It's what the French do.

 

The French do nothing but rhetoric. It's what they do best.

 

(And why are all the spellings the American version?)

[badgerx16]

 

(And why are all the spellings the American version?)

 

Because the article was published through the Gatestone Institute, a New York based right-wing 'NeoCon' think tank.

[Verbal]

I'm posting this as a resource for anyone genuinely interested in the vast and overwhelming complexities of Brexit. I strongly recommend the blog itself on the obstacles that need to be overcome - written by a lawyer who's genuinely on the fence about Brexit - but also (unusually) the comments BTL, which are from a variety of thoughtful lawyers and professionals.

 

The overall problem is neatly set out by this project manager:

 

As a very experienced and qualified project manager in software development, had I taken a project plan to my employer (IBM for 28 years) and told them “I have no idea what the specification of the product will be, how much it will cost to develop or when we expect to ship, but trust me it will be fine” I can be certain I would not have lasted long and certainly such a project would not be funded. Even if I had a plausible project plan but my colleagues in sales and marketing said “we have no idea what markets this product will succeed in, what potential customers are prepared to pay for it, how much revenue we expect to make, nor how it should be marketed but ‘trust me, it solves all known problems’ and the competition will simply melt away”, again, the company would not invest in such a proposal. But this is, by analogy, what Brexiters are meaning when they say “Brexit means Brexit; move on”. This is how the real world works, but it’s pretty clear that most of the Brexit leaders (Farage, Gove, Hannan, Johnson etc) have no experience of the real world – journalism and being a professional MEP don’t count.

 

But there's plenty of detail in the blog, the comments, and - if you wish - the links to a great deal of technical discussion.

 

http://jackofkent.com/2016/09/the-many-hurdles-of-brexit-a-short-summary-post/

 

This should probably come with a health warning - Not Safe For Brexiters (who'll have no credible solutions to these problems, and I can't see how they'd even understand a lot of the stuff).

[Johnny Bognor]

As a very experienced and qualified project manager in software development, had I taken a project plan to my employer (IBM for 28 years) and told them “I have no idea what the specification of the product will be, how much it will cost to develop or when we expect to ship, but trust me it will be fine” I can be certain I would not have lasted long and certainly such a project would not be funded. Even if I had a plausible project plan but my colleagues in sales and marketing said “we have no idea what markets this product will succeed in, what potential customers are prepared to pay for it, how much revenue we expect to make, nor how it should be marketed but ‘trust me, it solves all known problems’ and the competition will simply melt away”, again, the company would not invest in such a proposal. But this is, by analogy, what Brexiters are meaning when they say “Brexit means Brexit; move on”. This is how the real world works, but it’s pretty clear that most of the Brexit leaders (Farage, Gove, Hannan, Johnson etc) have no experience of the real world – journalism and being a professional MEP don’t count.

 

Hmmm....

 

Richard Branson says, I want to offer space travel to consumers...

 

His CTO will look at the technical requirements...

His CFO will look at the cost implications...

His CSO will look to draw up a strategy...

His CMO will look at getting messaging and pricing right...

His COO will look at the logistics involved...

His CHRO will look at people requirements... ...

and so on and so on.

 

Richard Branson doesn't have a detailed plan. He doesn't need to.

 

This is a far more realistic view of where we are ...

Edited 26 September, 2016 by Johnny Bognor

[moonraker]

Hmmm....

 

Richard Branson says, I want to offer space travel to consumers...

 

His CTO will look at the technical requirements...

His CFO will look at the cost implications...

His CSO will look to draw up a strategy...

His CMO will look at getting messaging and pricing right...

His COO will look at the logistics involved...

His CHRO will look at people requirements... ...

and so on and so on.

 

Richard Branson doesn't have a detailed plan. He doesn't need to.

 

This is a far more realistic view of where we are ...

 

Like Brexit little more than a vanity project that is yet to be realised. Also its his money he can do with it as he likes, politicians on the other hand are spending/ gambling with our money.

[Verbal]

Hmmm....

 

Richard Branson says, I want to offer space travel to consumers...

 

His CTO will look at the technical requirements...

His CFO will look at the cost implications...

His CSO will look to draw up a strategy...

His CMO will look at getting messaging and pricing right...

His COO will look at the logistics involved...

His CHRO will look at people requirements... ...

and so on and so on.

 

Richard Branson doesn't have a detailed plan. He doesn't need to.

 

This is a far more realistic view of where we are ...

 

And after all that the ****ing thing crashed, killing the pilot. Branson didn't come out of it exactly covered in glory. He was criticised for overreaching and not paying attention to warning signs that his 'Galactic Spaceship' had serious design flaws. So really quite a good analogy for Brexit

 

You Brexiters are distracted so easily. Did you actually read up on what the technical and legal hurdles were? Or did you take my NSFB health warning to heart? The project manager's point is an excellent one, since the problems are not in the airy-fairy conceiving of Brexit but in its execution, in all its frustrating and minutely complex detail.

[Guided Missile]

They are losing money and will need recapitalisation for sure, but its a couple of tens of billions not armeggedon. Banks are like a combination of bookie and insurance company now - covering business against unexpected movements in price / value. Most of their exposure is covered by other positions. Bookies write billions of pounds of business each years even though their capitalisation is a tiny fraction of that. The wins offset the losses and nobody seriously expects that they will have to pay out on every bet.

Read it and weep:

Banking stocks across Europe were also under pressure after shares in Germany's Deutsche Bank fell nearly 7% to its lowest level since the 1980s. The bank's shares were hit following reports at the weekend that the German government had ruled out state aid for the company."Since its peaks last October Deutsche Bank's share price has fallen over 60% reflecting increasing investor disquiet about its ability to deal with its problems at a time of negative rates, shrinking profitability, no dividend and the prospect of tighter capital rules," said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK.

"While one can understand the reticence of German politicians to bailout yet another bank, particularly in the lead up to an election next year, one has to question the wisdom of articulating that reluctance out loud when markets are already nervous about Deutsche Bank's capital position."

[Guided Missile]

Banks are nothing like bookies or insurance companies. They 100% rely on confidence in the strength of their asset base. If that goes, they are screwed. Unlike bookies and insurance companies. they are unable to cover their positions, should everyone withdraw their deposits. Once a run starts, that is the end. Deutsche Bank are too big to be allowed to fail, but also too big to rescue. I am sure they are not the only EU financial institution screwed...

Read this article and continue to weep.

....the German government looks to have abandoned it (Deutsche Bank) to its grisly fate. An article in Focus magazine quoted senior officials as saying the German Chancellor Angela Merkel was adamant that bank would not be rescued. There could be no state assistance if the bank was unable to raise the capital it needs to stay afloat, and she was not planning to intervene to get the American fine reduced. If it was in trouble, it was on its own.

There is, of course, something to be said for a hard-line position. It is hard to be sure the massive bank bail-outs of 2008 were such a great idea. Perhaps we would be better off now if a few had been allowed to fail. That said, Merkel is surely playing with fire. In the markets, investors, along with other financial institutions, have rightly or wrongly come to assume that major banks are, as the saying has it, ‘too big to fail’. You didn’t really have to worry about how solid they were, because if the crunch came the state would always ride to the rescue.

In Germany, that appears not to be the case – certainly for Deutsche, and possibly for its next biggest player, Commerzbank, which is hardly looking much healthier. Would you want to trade a few billion with Deutsche right now, and would you feel sure you’d get paid next month? Nope, thought not. The risk is that confidence evaporates – and as we know, once that is gone a bank is not long for this world.

True, Merkel’s position is understandable. The politics of a Deutsche rescue are terrible. Germany, with is Chancellor taking the lead, has set itself up as the guardian of financial responsibility within the euro-zone. Two years ago, it casually let the Greek bank system go to the wall, allowing the cash machines to be closed down as a way of whipping the rebellious Syriza government back into line. This year, there has been an unfolding Italian crisis, as bad debts mount, and yet Germany has insisted on enforcing euro-zone rules that say depositors – that is, ordinary people – have to shoulder some of the losses when a bank is in trouble.

For Germany to then turn around and say, actually we are bailing out our own bank, while letting everyone else’s fail, looks, to put it mildly, just a little inconsistent. Heck, a few people might even start to wonder if there was one rule for Germany, and another one for the rest. In truth, it would become impossible to maintain a hard-line in Italy, and probably in Greece as well.

And yet, if Deutsche Bank went down, and the German Government didn’t step in with a rescue, that would be a huge blow to Europe’s largest economy – and the global financial system. No one really knows where the losses would end up, or what the knock-on impact would be. It would almost certainly land a fatal blow to the Italian banking system, and the French and Spanish banks would be next. Even worse, the euro-zone economy, with France and Italy already back at zero growth, and still struggling with the impact of Brexit, is hardly in any shape to withstand a shock of that magnitude..

[buctootim]

Read this article and continue to weep.

 

Deutsche can still raise capital privately and they will - although current shareholders will be so heavily diluted as to be largely wiped out. I imagine they are looking at ringfencing the US fine in the US bank and considering putting into Chapter 13 so it doesnt weaken the whole bank.

[Guided Missile]

Deutsche can still raise capital privately and they will - although current shareholders will be so heavily diluted as to be largely wiped out.

So, the German government has refused to put capital into a major German bank, but private investors will? Yeah, right....

[Johnny Bognor]

And after all that the ****ing thing crashed, killing the pilot. Branson didn't come out of it exactly covered in glory. He was criticised for overreaching and not paying attention to warning signs that his 'Galactic Spaceship' had serious design flaws. So really quite a good analogy for Brexit

 

You Brexiters are distracted so easily. Did you actually read up on what the technical and legal hurdles were? Or did you take my NSFB health warning to heart? The project manager's point is an excellent one, since the problems are not in the airy-fairy conceiving of Brexit but in its execution, in all its frustrating and minutely complex detail.

LOL so i could have picked a better example, but the point being made remains the same.

 

 

 

Sent from my SM-G920F using Tapatalk

[Verbal]

LOL so i could have picked a better example, but the point being made remains the same.

 

Your point presumably being: 'Spaceships means spaceships' (followed by a loud bang). Works completely for me.

 

And are you seriously thinking that the Three Brexiteers are on some sort of analogical plane with Branson? Given their recent error-strewn pronouncements - all dismissively slapped down by May - they're more like bumblebees that don't understand how windows work.

 

So my point in offering a bit of analytical depth from experts - I know, I know - is that there's only so long we can watch those three puffed up idiots bounce back and forth about the deals they're plainly not going to get. At some point, someone is going to have to look into the actual hurdles - the detailed, technical challenges - and try to figure out a way out of this mess.

[Johnny Bognor]

Your point presumably being: 'Spaceships means spaceships' (followed by a loud bang). Works completely for me.

 

Errrr my point being that a leader doesn't need to have the plan detailed down to each and every specific point. Thats the job of other people in the organisation. There was no plan for remain, there was no plan for brexit. Now we know where we are, a plan can be (and is being) formulated. But I'm glad you place your faith in a very experienced IBM project manager. I guess it is a step up from a history graduate who's edited the comments section of the independent.

 

Anyway, as for the hurdles, talk about looking for problems... It's akin to me wanting to cook a sunday roast, when the shops are shut.

 

Here are my hurdles:

1. Can't make a roast, because the shop is shut

 

As for your blogger mate, his issues are:

1. Can't buy potatoes because the shop is shut

2. Can't buy beef because the shop is shut

3. Can't buy parsnips because the shop is shut

4. Can't buy brussels because the shop is shut

5. Cant buy carrots becuase the shop is shut

6. Can't buy gravy because the shop is shut

7. Can't buy swede because the shop is shut

8. Can't buy cabbage because the shop is shut

9. Can't buy cauliflour because the shop is shut

10. Can't buy cheese sauce because the shop is shut.