Brexit - Post Match Reaction

[doddisalegend]

Angela Merkel has told EU leaders a Brexit extension would be unavoidable if British MPs vote down the deal agreed with Boris Johnson.

 

During private talks at the EU summit, the German chancellor told her fellow leaders they could not pretend an extension would not be offered to the UK if it was requested, according to a source familiar with the discussions.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/18/brexit-extension-unavoidable-if-mps-reject-deal-says-merkel

 

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[egg]

reading point 77 of the new brexit deal....

 

Given the Union and the United Kingdom's geographic proximity and economic interdependence, the future relationship must ensure open and fair competition, encompassing robust commitments to ensure a level playing field. The precise nature of commitments should be commensurate with the scope and depth of the future relationshipand the economic connectedness of the Parties. These commitments should prevent distortions of trade and unfair competitive advantages. To that end, the Parties should uphold the common high standards applicable in the Union and the United Kingdom at the end of the transition period in the areas of state aid, competition, social and employment

[egg]

In my reading it means we can't get any trade deal that favours us more than the EU, and basically it seems the EU has a very deep concern that we will be better without the EU ... and Boris has given this away ... what's the point of having trade deals if can't be competitive?

[ecuk268]

The DUP have to pander to their support in NI from their point of view anything that marks NI out as different from the rest of the Union or might encourage closer ties with the Republic is dangerous. I'm not sure a load of cash will cut it this time.

 

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It's interesting to see the demographic changes in NI. By around 2021 the Catholics will be in the majority with the Unionists being predominant in the older population and the Catholics in the younger.

 

So it might take a few years but in 10 or 15 years time we might see a united Ireland.

[Whitey Grandad]

In my reading it means we can't get any trade deal that favours us more than the EU, and basically it seems the EU has a very deep concern that we will be better without the EU ... and Boris has given this away ... what's the point of having trade deals if can't be competitive?

 

No trade deal can ever make you more or less competitive. All we are usually talking about is a few percentage points on a tariff anyway and these are more than offset by swings in the exchange rate. I read it as being more concerned with employment and product standards. The EU as a whole has far more clout than the UK anyway.

[egg]

No trade deal can ever make you more or less competitive. All we are usually talking about is a few percentage points on a tariff anyway and these are more than offset by swings in the exchange rate. I read it as being more concerned with employment and product standards. The EU as a whole has far more clout than the UK anyway.

We read it very differently. There is clear reference to "competition" and specific reference to "These commitments should prevent distortions of trade and unfair competitive advantages" between the union and the United Kingdom.

 

It's pretty obvious what it means and is a new addition that is very restrictive to our ability to negotiate trade deals on whatever terms we want.

[doddisalegend]

Looks like Jez has had a change of heart.

 

Jeremy Corbyn announced that Labour will officially back a second referendum as he dismissed Boris Johnson’s new Brexit deal with the EU.

 

 

Read more: https://metro.co.uk/2019/10/17/jeremy-corbyn-backs-second-referendum-even-worse-deal-theresa-mays-10935091/?ito=cbshare

 

Twitter: https://twitter.com/MetroUK | Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MetroUK/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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[badgerx16]

ERG members saying they may well back this deal as it leaves open the chance of a no-deal result in 12 months time.

[Whitey Grandad]

We read it very differently. There is clear reference to "competition" and specific reference to "These commitments should prevent distortions of trade and unfair competitive advantages" between the union and the United Kingdom.

 

It's pretty obvious what it means and is a new addition that is very restrictive to our ability to negotiate trade deals on whatever terms we want.

 

Then we differ in our readings. 'Competition' and 'unfair advantages' could just as easily refer to artifically low wages or extreme working conditions or looser environmental restritions as to a different tariff regime.

 

So I don't agree that it is 'pretty obvious what it means'. It could just as easily refer to government support for individual industrial sectors.

[egg]

Then we differ in our readings. 'Competition' and 'unfair advantages' could just as easily refer to artifically low wages or extreme working conditions or looser environmental restritions as to a different tariff regime.

 

So I don't agree that it is 'pretty obvious what it means'. It could just as easily refer to government support for individual industrial sectors.

 

True, but either way it's a provision which means that we won't have full autonomy over our affairs with reference to "state aid, competition, social and employment".

[Whitey Grandad]

But for those concerned with workers' rights and the environment the EU provides a welcome safeguard against those who would exploit them.

[shurlock]

True, but either way it's a provision which means that we won't have full autonomy over our affairs with reference to "state aid, competition, social and employment".

 

The UK will always be a regulation taker, limiting its autonomy - the real question is whether it’s regulation is more aligned with the EU or the US, the other big regulatory power.

[Weston Super Saint]

True, but either way it's a provision which means that we won't have full autonomy over our affairs with reference to "state aid, competition, social and employment".

 

To be fair, it's not exactly 'legally binding'. It's more a direction of what 'should' happen at the end of the transition period rather than a legal requirement.

 

A lot can happen between now and then...

[Guided Missile]

To be fair, it's not exactly 'legally binding'. It's more a direction of what 'should' happen at the end of the transition period rather than a legal requirement.

 

A lot can happen between now and then...

Eurosceptics are reportedly asking Geoffrey Cox if Britain could crash out with a no-deal exit under the current arrangement. They believe that if no trade deal is agreed by the end of 2020, that Britain could switch from full EU rules to World Trade Organisation terms.

 

That clown Boris continues to play a blinder....

[egg]

The UK will always be a regulation taker, limiting its autonomy - the real question is whether it’s regulation is more aligned with the EU or the US, the other big regulatory power.

 

Under point 77 of the revised deal, the alignment must be between the "Union and the United Kingdom".

[shurlock]

Under point 77 of the revised deal, the alignment must be between the "Union and the United Kingdom".

 

You’re missing the point. The idea of regulatory autonomy for a country the size of the UK is a myth - in reality it will be compelled to ‘pick sides’. If you think the EU is playing hardball, you’ve seen nothing yet (from both the EU and the US). As for point 77, if it’s in the political declaration, it carries limited legal force.

[sadoldgit]

Eurosceptics are reportedly asking Geoffrey Cox if Britain could crash out with a no-deal exit under the current arrangement. They believe that if no trade deal is agreed by the end of 2020, that Britain could switch from full EU rules to World Trade Organisation terms.

 

That clown Boris continues to play a blinder....

 

Classic Dom.

[Shroppie]

Letwin has put down an amended which has wide support and, if Bercow selects it, might well pass.

 

It basically postpones the vote tomorrow and forces Johnson to request an extension. That's because there's a potential loophole in the Benn Act if Johnson wins tomorrow (and so doesn't need to ask for the extension).

 

If Johnson wins, the Withdrawal Agreement Act has to be debated (presumably with the full economic and other implications known) and if it doesn't pass by 31st Oct, we could crash out with no deal.

 

The Letwin amendment says the Benn requirement stays in place until all stages have been completed.

 

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[egg]

You’re missing the point. The idea of regulatory autonomy for a country the size of the UK is a myth - in reality it will be compelled to ‘pick sides’. If you think the EU is playing hardball, you’ve seen nothing yet (from both the EU and the US). As for point 77, if it’s in the political declaration, it carries limited legal force.

No, you're missing the point. Clause 77 (an addition not present in May's deal) essentially imposes upon us an alignment with the EU in many areas beyond us leaving.

That interferes with what brexit is meant to achieve, namely a launch pad to negotiate with others without any ties to the EU. Don't get me wrong, I know full well that Trump will turn us inside out on any trade deal, but clause 77 appears to stand in the way of such deals / negotiations.

Whichever way you look at it though, we're exposed to getting ****ed from all directions.

[CB Fry]

Eurosceptics are reportedly asking Geoffrey Cox if Britain could crash out with a no-deal exit under the current arrangement. They believe that if no trade deal is agreed by the end of 2020, that Britain could switch from full EU rules to World Trade Organisation terms.

 

That clown Boris continues to play a blinder....

That would have been true for May's deal as well. Transition periods tend to, you know, end.

[CB Fry]

Labour leave-supporters are falling over themselves to support the deal. It's going through no problem.

 

And those Labour MPs have sealed the fate of Corbyn. Labour facilitating Brexit is a simultaneously a gift for the Conservatives (Boris delivers Brexit and takes all the credit) and a gift for the Lib Dems (Labour delivered Brexit and take all the blame). So that's something.

[badgerx16]

Labour leave-supporters are falling over themselves to support the deal. It's going through no problem.

 

And those Labour MPs have sealed the fate of Corbyn. Labour facilitating Brexit is a simultaneously a gift for the Conservatives (Boris delivers Brexit and takes all the credit) and a gift for the Lib Dems (Labour delivered Brexit and take all the blame). So that's something.

 

I suspect that Labour believe they can win a GE. If BoJo 'delivers' Brexit, or at least this version of the WA, then they don't have a chance.

[shurlock]

No, you're missing the point. Clause 77 (an addition not present in May's deal) essentially imposes upon us an alignment with the EU in many areas beyond us leaving.

That interferes with what brexit is meant to achieve, namely a launch pad to negotiate with others without any ties to the EU. Don't get me wrong, I know full well that Trump will turn us inside out on any trade deal, but clause 77 appears to stand in the way of such deals / negotiations.

Whichever way you look at it though, we're exposed to getting ****ed from all directions.

 

It’s in the Political Declaration. It’s a wish list, not a strict enforceable obligation. That’s all you need to know.

[Shroppie]

Labour leave-supporters are falling over themselves to support the deal. It's going through no problem.

 

And those Labour MPs have sealed the fate of Corbyn. Labour facilitating Brexit is a simultaneously a gift for the Conservatives (Boris delivers Brexit and takes all the credit) and a gift for the Lib Dems (Labour delivered Brexit and take all the blame). So that's something.

I think this is probably an accurate assessment.

 

The only hope for sanity is the Letwin amendment.

 

Otherwise we've just got a stampede of lemmings desperate to dive over the cliff because they've been talking about doing it for too long and it's time to get it done. And, after all, once upon a time they agreed to do it because they were promised it would give them back control and be really good. And no-one will give any details about what's over the cliff until they've jumped.

 

After all, it would be ridiculous to just pause a while on the edge and ask a few questions.

 

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[hypochondriac]

I think this is probably an accurate assessment.

 

The only hope for sanity is the Letwin amendment.

 

Otherwise we've just got a stampede of lemmings desperate to dive over the cliff because they've been talking about doing it for too long and it's time to get it done. And, after all, once upon a time they agreed to do it because they were promised it would give them back control and be really good. And no-one will give any details about what's over the cliff until they've jumped.

 

After all, it would be ridiculous to just pause a while on the edge and ask a few questions.

 

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I hardly think you can accuse anyone in this process of rushing things through. We've been paused on the edge for months.

[shurlock]

I hardly think you can accuse anyone in this process of rushing things through. We've been paused on the edge for months.

 

MPs were only informed about the specifics of the deal on Thursday (and have as yet not seen any of the implementing legislation). Indeed Johnson was pitching a different deal only a week ago. Two to three days is ridiculously short to scrutinise any act of Parliament - never mind arguably the most important piece of legislation in decades.

Edited 18 October, 2019 by shurlock

[Shroppie]

I hardly think you can accuse anyone in this process of rushing things through. We've been paused on the edge for months.

Yes, it's been going on a long time. But the actual deal bring voted on has had no scrutiny whatsoever. The economic and financial implications are deliberately being withheld.

 

The whole Johnson (ie Cummings) strategy is to bludgeon it through whilst screaming we've got to get this done! It's absolutely an obscene rush.

 

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Edited 18 October, 2019 by Shroppie

[scally]

Yes, it's been going on a long time. But the actual deal bring voted on has had no scrutiny whatsoever. The economic and financial implications are deliberately being withheld.

 

The whole Johnson (ie Cummings) strategy is to bludgeon it through whilst screaming we've got to get this done! It's absolutely an obscene rush.

 

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This might cheer you up if you think the mp's need a bit longer

 

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/how-oliver-letwin-could-go-from-zero-to-hero-among-brexiteers_uk_5daa0674e4b0422422c48755

[shurlock]

This might cheer you up if you think the mp's need a bit longer

 

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/how-oliver-letwin-could-go-from-zero-to-hero-among-brexiteers_uk_5daa0674e4b0422422c48755

 

The article overlooks the fact that any extension would not only enable Parliament to scrutinise the deal but also provide opportunities for Parliament to amend the deal.

[Guided Missile]

Classic Dom.

 

*This is the irony of those calling for a second referendum - we would absolutely kill them. It wouldn’t be about Brexit but about how much the public likes parliament and MPs. They'd be trounced. They are as popular as the clap. Everyone now knows that we don’t bluff.*

[Weston Super Saint]

Yes, it's been going on a long time. But the actual deal bring voted on has had no scrutiny whatsoever. The economic and financial implications are deliberately being withheld.

 

The whole Johnson (ie Cummings) strategy is to bludgeon it through whilst screaming we've got to get this done! It's absolutely an obscene rush.

 

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Pretty sure we've been told this is May's deal with a bit of lipstick on it! Surely there's been enough time to scrutinise that - it's been voted on enough times so surely, someone, somewhere jotted down some details?

[Unbelievable Jeff]

Pretty sure we've been told this is May's deal with a bit of lipstick on it! Surely there's been enough time to scrutinise that - it's been voted on enough times so surely, someone, somewhere jotted down some details?

 

Until they scrutinise it they don't know that it is just that. From the outside it does look like that, although we've already heard there has been a withdrawal of the alignment with EU regulations (I believe), so I would guess they want to read the text a little more closely to ensure there are no more nasty surprises.

[doddisalegend]

Pretty sure we've been told this is May's deal with a bit of lipstick on it! Surely there's been enough time to scrutinise that - it's been voted on enough times so surely, someone, somewhere jotted down some details?

When your pig changes her make up it takes a while to work out if you like the new look or not....

 

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Edited 19 October, 2019 by doddisalegend

[Weston Super Saint]

When your pig changes her make up it takes a while to work out if you like the new look or not....

 

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The Chancellor likes it and he's never wrong...

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50101866

[badgerx16]

When your pig changes her make up it takes a while to work out if you like the new look or not....

Maybe we should ask David Cameron.

[saint1977]

Pretty sure we've been told this is May's deal with a bit of lipstick on it! Surely there's been enough time to scrutinise that - it's been voted on enough times so surely, someone, somewhere jotted down some details?

 

Not around convergence with EU regulations it isn’t, and it is very dangerous for some sectors, including aerospace and as you will know, the impact on skilled jobs in places like the South West could be huge. Letwin will pass anyway so extension until 31/1/20 to enable proper scrutiny as is the correct role of Parliament and Cummings can scream all he wants via the non-independent newspapers who he will dictate copy to. The Treasury’s economic analysis also needs to be seen in public - Javid can’t hide that forever.

 

There has to be a shared risk level that is reasonable between the impact on skilled and unskilled roles/industries - the get it done emotions of the unskilled cannot be the dominant voice as the impact for the skilled will also last a generation.

[Guided Missile]

The Chancellor likes it and he's never wrong...

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50101866

 

He's the Governor of the BoE. The Chancellor is Sajid Javid....HTH

[shurlock]

The Chancellor likes it and he's never wrong...

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50101866

 

Carney is the Governor of the BoE. It’s hardly a ringing endorsement pal. He ‘likes’ it only because it’s preferable to a disorderly no deal. Then again a s**t sandwich is preferable to no deal.

[buctootim]

When your pig changes her make up it takes a while to work out if you like the new look or not....

 

I read that at first as "If your pig changes its makeup take it to work while you work out if you like the new look or not".

 

I guess thats also an option...

[Marsdinho]

With up to a million people marching for a peoples vote in London today, I was just wondering were the pro Brexit march is?

[scally]

With up to a million people marching for a peoples vote in London today, I was just wondering were the pro Brexit march is?

 

What do we have to march for?

[Marsdinho]

What do we have to march for?

 

Surely, if the will of the people was still to leave the EU...why aren't there massive protests to support that view? As opposed to completely the opposite.

 

You would have thought that pro brexit supporters would have rallied to counteract the People Vote march, but that hasnt happened.

[doddisalegend]

What do we have to march for?

Surely against Boris's surrender treaty?

 

Nigel Farage pleads with Eurosceptics to reject Boris Johnson's 'reheated' deal

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-news-latest-boris-johnson-deal-vote-nigel-farage-extension-a9162586.html

 

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[scally]

Surely, if the will of the people was still to leave the EU...why aren't there massive protests to support that view? As opposed to completely the opposite.

 

You would have thought that pro brexit supporters would have rallied to counteract the People Vote march, but that hasnt happened.

 

We had a referendum and we voted to leave why would we need to do anything else?

[Batman]

Surely, if the will of the people was still to leave the EU...why aren't there massive protests to support that view? As opposed to completely the opposite.

 

You would have thought that pro brexit supporters would have rallied to counteract the People Vote march, but that hasnt happened.

 

Left are very shouty this day and age.

[scally]

Left are very shouty this day and age.

 

They do love a march

[Marsdinho]

We had a referendum and we voted to leave why would we need to do anything else?

 

To re-enforce that view, in the face of such opposition.

[Wes Tender]

Good news. Things coming nicely to the boil for a clean break Brexit, aided and abetted by the likes of EU collaborators Letwin, Benn and Bercow.

[hypochondriac]

It's obvious this deal is going to pass eventually, even if there is a general election in between. The only hope remainers have is for the Tories not to be the biggest party.

[badgerx16]

It's obvious this deal is going to pass eventually,

Not to Wes...

Good news. Things coming nicely to the boil for a clean break Brexit....