Brexit - Post Match Reaction

[buctootim]

I'll agree with you here, polls are ********.

 

Four of the most recent five polls show a 4-5% lead for remain so pretty consistent, with one outlier showing much more. It largely depends on how you treat the ‘dont knows’ and ‘would not votes’. The other issue is not what most people think but how likely those people are to actually vote.

[Weston Super Saint]

Four of the most recent five polls show a 4-5% lead for remain so pretty consistent, with one outlier showing much more. It largely depends on how you treat the ‘dont knows’ and ‘would not votes’. The other issue is not what most people think but how likely those people are to actually vote.

 

What were the polls showing the month / week / days before the referendum?

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-10-03/the-super-trawler-just-14-miles-off-brighton-capable-of-landing-6-000-tonnes-of-fish/

 

Sadly this is not being debated on the BBC or Sky because it does not fit the EU rhetoric but whatever your views on Brexit we should be building smaller fishing boats.

[CB Fry]

What were the polls showing the month / week / days before the referendum?

Loads of polls in April, May and June 2016 had leave in front.

 

Since 2018 hardly any have. Not that it matters now.

[buctootim]

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-10-03/the-super-trawler-just-14-miles-off-brighton-capable-of-landing-6-000-tonnes-of-fish/

 

Sadly this is not being debated on the BBC or Sky because it does not fit the EU rhetoric but whatever your views on Brexit we should be building smaller fishing boats.

 

The UK government should be licensing smaller boats from harbours local to the fishing grounds. They don’t, in contravention of EU guidance.

[saint1977]

Given the submission to the Scottish court that states BoJo will produce the letter to the EU requesting an extension to the deadline, as required by the Benn Act, any ideas as to what the cunning plan to still deliver Brexit on 31st Oct might be ?

 

At a guess, reluctantly comply screaming blue murder in the DT that the horrible judges and undemocratic parliament (who don’t have Crispin Odey bankrolling them hoping to win £500m on No Deal to add to his allegedly colossal winnings from 2016). Then call an election in November on a harder deal platform and try to compete with Farage in an old white van man race to the bottom.

 

Whatever Farage says about an alignment, it would have to be no deal and I don’t think the Tory could carry on its current form if that happened. Boris is also going to get a level of exposure in a GE campaign he has never had before, it will be x100 what he has had in the job so far. Implosion risk is v high.

 

Either way, rather a positive scenario for Swinson, who I’m not sure I particularly rate. Labour will do so so, but they should be getting an overall majority with anyone other than Corbyn in charge.

[badgerx16]

Either way, rather a positive scenario for Swinson, who I’m not sure I particularly rate. Labour will do so so, but they should be getting an overall majority with anyone other than Corbyn in charge.

Was discussing a possible GE with my wife today, and the problem we have is that whilst there is no way we could ever vote Tory at the moment, the chances of an LD win in our constituency are extremely slim, as it is a Tory/Labour marginal, and we don't want to give an endorsement to Corbyn.

[Batman]

Four of the most recent five polls show a 4-5% lead for remain so pretty consistent, with one outlier showing much more. It largely depends on how you treat the ‘dont knows’ and ‘would not votes’. The other issue is not what most people think but how likely those people are to actually vote.

 

It’s like all the poll showing a very comfortable win for the conservatives in the pending GE.

 

Do you really believe that will be the case?

[Danbert]

I would assume 99% of Gregg's customers are Brexiteers, so that's big news for them.

 

Actually, they now have a vegan sausage roll, so perhaps just 98%.

[Danbert]

Polls are bollix.

Some are showing a stonking victory for the Torys in a GE. We all know that will not be the case

 

Do we? I'm not so sure, and it scares the living **** out of me. Descent into fascism here we come.

[OldNick]

Do we? I'm not so sure, and it scares the living **** out of me. Descent into fascism here we come.

Behave. You have been reading too much on FB

[saint1977]

Was discussing a possible GE with my wife today, and the problem we have is that whilst there is no way we could ever vote Tory at the moment, the chances of an LD win in our constituency are extremely slim, as it is a Tory/Labour marginal, and we don't want to give an endorsement to Corbyn.

 

I have the option of LD fortunately, although I'm not that keen on their Brexit position either. If it was Tory V Labour, whilst I detest Corbyn, I'm from the Peter Oborne school of thought recently which says Boris is even more harmful for the economy than Corbyn. Astonishing thought. Max Hastings says that if Labour had any other leader they would romp home and I agree, but Labour will need just as a big job purging the extremists as Kinnock had. Ditto the Tries although different demographics, nature may take its course instead to some extent.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

More project fear...

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49961301

[Unbelievable Jeff]

And now a deal is "essentially impossible" - not a surprise as we all know - THERE IS NO SOLUTION TO THE BACKSTOP.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49970267

[doddisalegend]

And now a deal is "essentially impossible" - not a surprise as we all know - THERE IS NO SOLUTION TO THE BACKSTOP.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49970267

This is Boris's plan all along act like a tit hope the EU just get fed up and force us out without a deal and then just play the nasty foreigners made us do it card. He has made next to no effort to leave with a deal.

 

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[Unbelievable Jeff]

This is Boris's plan all along act like a tit hope the EU just get fed up and force us out without a deal and then just play the nasty foreigners made us do it card. He has made next to no effort to leave with a deal.

 

Sent from my moto g(6) using Tapatalk

 

TBH, it actually plays into Corbyn's hands - Johnson still has to ask for an extension and there will be a GE coming. That GE will be fought on the fact that a Tory Government can't get a deal through Parliament, and Boris can't even get one agreed with the EU, but that Labour could as there is no appetite from the majority of parliament to go No Deal.

[shurlock]

TBH, it actually plays into Corbyn's hands - Johnson still has to ask for an extension and there will be a GE coming. That GE will be fought on the fact that a Tory Government can't get a deal through Parliament, and Boris can't even get one agreed with the EU, but that Labour could as there is no appetite from the majority of parliament to go No Deal.

 

What Parliament wants is irrelevant if the maths and make-up are changed. It will depend whether the electorate as a whole wants no deal (a deal) and how those preferences interacts with the eccentricities of FPTP.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

What Parliament wants is irrelevant if the maths and make-up are changed. It will depend whether the electorate as a whole wants no deal (a deal) and how those preferences interacts with the eccentricities of FPTP.

 

I'm making the assumption that the numbers will still be positive for a Deal (as I think it is now), or for a Customs Union type of deal.

 

You may know this - can Parliament bring back the WA for another vote pre-Oct 31st?

Edited 8 October, 2019 by Unbelievable Jeff

[shurlock]

I'm making the assumption that the numbers will still be positive for a Deal (as I think it is now), or for a Customs Union type of deal.

 

You may know this - can Parliament bring back the WA for another vote pre-Oct 31st?

 

Time would be tight but in principle it could.

[Cartman]

Was discussing a possible GE with my wife today, and the problem we have is that whilst there is no way we could ever vote Tory at the moment, the chances of an LD win in our constituency are extremely slim, as it is a Tory/Labour marginal, and we don't want to give an endorsement to Corbyn.

 

From the Financial Times, not exactly Corbyn's biggest fans.

https://www.ft.com/content/7cdfa832-e908-11e9-a240-3b065ef5fc55

 

You have a choice between a bad option and a catastrophic one, it's not that hard surely?

[Unbelievable Jeff]

Time would be tight but in principle it could.

 

I think if Boris was to not ask for, or implement, the extension request, that will be the way to go.

[Nordic Saint]

Dominic Cummings' latest strategy appears to be to prepare people for the No Leave Brexit by getting government ministers to increase the number of times they repeat 17.4 million people voted for it. Michael Gove has just said it 6 times. Why doesn't somebody on the opposition bench, just once at least, point out that means 50.2 million people in this country did not vote for it? Also, sadly, as a disproportionate number of those leave voters were very old people, about a million of them have died since 2016 and been replaced by new young voters who are very much in favour of remaining in the EU.

[hypochondriac]

Dominic Cummings' latest strategy appears to be to prepare people for the No Leave Brexit by getting government ministers to increase the number of times they repeat 17.4 million people voted for it. Michael Gove has just said it 6 times. Why doesn't somebody on the opposition bench, just once at least, point out that means 50.2 million people in this country did not vote for it? Also, sadly, as a disproportionate number of those leave voters were very old people, about a million of them have died since 2016 and been replaced by new young voters who are very much in favour of remaining in the EU.

Not voting isn't an endorsement either way. If you don't vote then you don't have a voice.

[aintforever]

I think if Boris was to not ask for, or implement, the extension request, that will be the way to go.

 

Not sure what the point in dragging that deal up would be, apart from the comedy value of having Boris and his ERG chums block Brexit, again.

 

Parliament pretty much agreed it was "the worst deal in history", no MP is going to openly say that then force it on their people. The only way that would get through if it was with a confirmatory vote clause.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

Not sure what the point in dragging that deal up would be, apart from the comedy value of having Boris and his ERG chums block Brexit, again.

 

Parliament pretty much agreed it was "the worst deal in history", no MP is going to openly say that then force it on their people. The only way that would get through if it was with a confirmatory vote clause.

 

But they won't block it - they don't have the numbers anymore. Last time it lost was by 58 votes, but there have been massive changes since then to the make-up of Parliament, and a number of MPs who will now vote for it ahead of no-deal.

Edited 8 October, 2019 by Unbelievable Jeff

[Nordic Saint]

Not voting isn't an endorsement either way. If you don't vote then you don't have a voice.

 

You mean like the 5.5 million British people currently living abroad who weren't allowed to vote in a referendum which will affect their lives much more than it will ours?

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/28/british-expats-lose-legal-battle-right-to-vote-eu-referendum

[sadoldgit]

Dominic Cummings' latest strategy appears to be to prepare people for the No Leave Brexit by getting government ministers to increase the number of times they repeat 17.4 million people voted for it. Michael Gove has just said it 6 times. Why doesn't somebody on the opposition bench, just once at least, point out that means 50.2 million people in this country did not vote for it? Also, sadly, as a disproportionate number of those leave voters were very old people, about a million of them have died since 2016 and been replaced by new young voters who are very much in favour of remaining in the EU.

 

This is the major problem with democracy. It isn’t the will of the people. It is the will of the people who can be arsed to vote or those allowed to vote. Then there are those who use it as a protest vote because they think that the vote will be a certain way anyway. Apart from having a referendum in the first place, Cameron made 2 major errors. 1 - saying that he would abide by the decision of the vote even though it was “advisers.” 2. He should have stipulated that he would agree to a leave vote if it was substantial, say 60/40. Technically we would be having the same amount of bickering if leave had won by 1 vote. A great deal happened over the last 3 years and we know a lot more about what leaving really means. If that was what majority truly want now, let’s find up with a 2nd referendum.

[aintforever]

But they won't block it - they don't have the numbers anymore. Last time it lost was by 58 votes, but there have been massive changes since then to the make-up of Parliament, and a number of MPs who will now vote for it ahead of no-deal.

 

But the people in Parliament have not changed and neither have the details of the deal. If it was a bad deal for the country then it still is now.

 

An MPs job is to do what they think is best for their constituents and the country, no way will they vote through a deal which they have already said on record is going to be bad for the country.

[Baird of the land]

Was discussing a possible GE with my wife today, and the problem we have is that whilst there is no way we could ever vote Tory at the moment, the chances of an LD win in our constituency are extremely slim, as it is a Tory/Labour marginal, and we don't want to give an endorsement to Corbyn.

 

No fan of Corbyn labour at all but turns out the odiousness of Boris and company is one of few circumstances I'll hold my nose and vote for them.

[badgerx16]

You mean like the 5.5 million British people currently living abroad who weren't allowed to vote in a referendum which will affect their lives much more than it will ours?

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/28/british-expats-lose-legal-battle-right-to-vote-eu-referendum

Or the populations of the Channel Islands, the Isle of Man, or Anguilla, almost all of whom could not vote as these territories are technically not in the EU, despite most EU treaties applying to them as the UK is responsible for them.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

But the people in Parliament have not changed and neither have the details of the deal. If it was a bad deal for the country then it still is now.

 

An MPs job is to do what they think is best for their constituents and the country, no way will they vote through a deal which they have already said on record is going to be bad for the country.

 

Unfortunately. I think you're wrong on this, there are indications that large swathes of the Labour party, if not all of them, will now support the WA, and a number of Conservatives are at breaking point with Boris and supported the deal the first time round...if they voted against it that's the end for the Tory party as they would be seem to be blocking anything but a No Deal exit. It is also a revised WA, it hasn't been voted on yet.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/14/labour-bloc-plans-radical-move-to-push-through-brexit-deal

 

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/lisa-nandy-won-t-vote-for-boris-johnson-s-deal-1-6308444

[revolution saint]

Not voting isn't an endorsement either way. If you don't vote then you don't have a voice.

 

That's not the way the government treats not voting when it comes to strike ballots.

[hypochondriac]

That's not the way the government treats not voting when it comes to strike ballots.

This was a referendum and that's how it's treated.

[shurlock]

Unfortunately. I think you're wrong on this, there are indications that large swathes of the Labour party, if not all of them, will now support the WA, and a number of Conservatives are at breaking point with Boris and supported the deal the first time round...if they voted against it that's the end for the Tory party as they would be seem to be blocking anything but a No Deal exit. It is also a revised WA, it hasn't been voted on yet.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/14/labour-bloc-plans-radical-move-to-push-through-brexit-deal

 

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/lisa-nandy-won-t-vote-for-boris-johnson-s-deal-1-6308444

 

Very unlikely May’s WA with a few cosmetic changes (at least the minor changes that May was willing to entertain) would pass now.

Edited 8 October, 2019 by shurlock

[Unbelievable Jeff]

Very unlikely May’s WA with a few cosmetic changes (at least the minor changes that May was willing to entertain) would pass now.

 

I just don't know TBH - be interesting to see.

[aintforever]

Unfortunately. I think you're wrong on this, there are indications that large swathes of the Labour party, if not all of them, will now support the WA, and a number of Conservatives are at breaking point with Boris and supported the deal the first time round...if they voted against it that's the end for the Tory party as they would be seem to be blocking anything but a No Deal exit. It is also a revised WA, it hasn't been voted on yet.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/14/labour-bloc-plans-radical-move-to-push-through-brexit-deal

 

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/lisa-nandy-won-t-vote-for-boris-johnson-s-deal-1-6308444

 

If it’s revised then it’s not the same so it might stand a chance. No way they could push the same deal through.

 

I think the only way anything will get through now is with a condition of a confirmatory vote, too many remainers in the house can smell blood.

[Portugalsaint]

You mean like the 5.5 million British people currently living abroad who weren't allowed to vote in a referendum which will affect their lives much more than it will ours?

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/28/british-expats-lose-legal-battle-right-to-vote-eu-referendum

 

 

Incorrect, if you have been living abroad less than 15 years, you are able to vote in refendum and all elections, you just need to register with the last council you lived in. You can vote by proxy or post. I have recently been contacted by my local council to ensure I am up to date in case of a snap election. I have friends who live the other side of the world who voted as they have been away less than 15 years. The article does mention this.

 

It’s up to the individual to find out about their rights, I am afraid a lot don’t bother they certainly as Hypcondriac says have a lot to say but didn’t vote therefore should shut up and put up. Many still can’t be bothered so even if a second referendum happened they STILL couldn’t vote. No sympathy at all.

[shurlock]

 

Who said the swivels didn’t have facts and evidence on their side

[saint1977]

 

Who said the swivels didn’t have facts and evidence on their side

 

Sort of advert which would appeal to bottom stream dwellers at my old secondary school. Seem to remember them singing those words when a German secondary school party visited around the school and them thinking it was funny. Probably will also appeal to the same England Members Club idiots that sang the German Bombers/RAF song at the 2006 WC.

 

Frankly, it’s not Merkel’s fault that 110000 English nats voted the village buffoon to lead the country.

[Nordic Saint]

Sort of advert which would appeal to bottom stream dwellers at my old secondary school. Seem to remember them singing those words when a German secondary school party visited around the school and them thinking it was funny. Probably will also appeal to the same England Members Club idiots that sang the German Bombers/RAF song at the 2006 WC.

 

Frankly, it’s not Merkel’s fault that 110000 English nats voted the village buffoon to lead the country.

 

To be fair we shouldn't blame little Englanders for Brexit propaganda like this as most of it emanates from Russia. Even Dominic Cummings with his 'Take Back Control' propaganda came here after his formative years living in Moscow in the 1990s.

[doddisalegend]

 

Who said the swivels didn’t have facts and evidence on their side [emoji38]

I'm thinking I'd prefer Merkel as my PM more than Boris...

 

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[Weston Super Saint]

I'm thinking I'd prefer Merkel as my PM more than Boris...

 

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There's still time to make this your reality

[doddisalegend]

There's still time to make this your reality

Well if their is some way she can stand in the next GE for the Lib Dems I'm all for it

 

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[Plastic]

Apparently they have removed it an apologised. Its absolutely incredible that it got released in the first place.

The times we live in, any idiot with a crayon set can post their scrawls for the entertainment of other idiots.

[Weston Super Saint]

Well if their is some way she can stand in the next GE for the Lib Dems I'm all for it

 

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Or you could go and live in Germany

[buctootim]

Of 226 polls since July 2017 204 have shown 'remain' ahead and just 7 have shown 'leave' in front. (15 ties).

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-news-latest-britain-against-leaving-eu-as-poll-of-polls-says-most-now-want-to-stay-a4257476.html

[OldNick]

Why doesn't somebody on the opposition bench, just once at least, point out that means 50.2 million people in this country did not vote for it? Also, sadly, as a disproportionate number of those leave voters were very old people, about a million of them have died since 2016 and been replaced by new young voters who are very much in favour of remaining in the EU.

just because they didnt vote doesn't mean they wanted in or out. Why not wait to do the referendum in 10years time as another 2or 3 million will be gone? The problem is how can you appease the 17.4m people who voted leave and then betray their wishes.

It is a problem we can fix IMO

[shurlock]

Bercowitz getting under the skin of the swivels - I hope Les is OK.

[Wes Tender]

Bercowitz getting under the skin of the swivels - I hope Les is OK.

 

Do you mean Bercow, the collaborator?

[shurlock]

Do you mean Bercow, the collaborator?

 

Good to see you’re still being whipped up into unthinking hysteria Les. So what? These types of meetings are perfectly normal and commonplace. The swivel-eyed commentary of secret plotting and negotiations has been comedy gold.

Edited 10 October, 2019 by shurlock