Brexit - Post Match Reaction

[Unbelievable Jeff]

I don't really understand why the EU doesn't agree to a finite end date for the back-stop and to allow the UK to unilaterally withdraw from it, given a notice period. Article 50 provides for unilateral withdrawal and a finite end date, after which there is no deal, unless a deal has been agreed. As a point of principle, a finite back-stop with unilateral withdrawal seems no different to the pre-exit position on withdrawal. An infinite back-stop with no unilateral right to withdraw puts the exiting country in a less-flexible position than pre-exit which, at a principles level, is obviously wrong.

 

If that concession was made, which puts the EU in no worse a position than the current situation (particularly when taken alongside the other aspects of the WA), we'd probably have a deal.

 

Yes, it kicks the can down the road somewhat - you've still got to deal with what happens after the back-stop - but so does "no deal" and so does the proposed WA.

 

I'm critical of our government's approach and ineptitude over the last few years but I think the EU's position on the back-stop is certainly a subject of valid criticism. I don't think they would be conceding much, in practical terms, by offering the unilateral ability to the UK to end it.

 

There was an indication that they would flex on that, but Boris has the Backstop as one of his red lines, and that even a time limited backstop is not acceptable.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

It seems Boris is trying to push for a deal with customs checks close to the Irish border, although it's still obscure exactly where. I'm not sure how this isn't a hard border, unless it's a half-hearted version, in which case it will leave the UK with a partially open border for immigration and goods.It'll be interesting to hear the details.

 

As far as I can see, the backstop is by far the most sensible solution, but then I'm not Irish or Northern Irish. It seems to be the only real Brexit, but of course leaves NI effectively in the EU.

 

The problem is it takes time to set these things up - and this is where you need the backstop until it's sorted, as they won't be set up by the 31st October.

[shurlock]

It seems Boris is trying to push for a deal with customs checks close to the Irish border, although it's still obscure exactly where. I'm not sure how this isn't a hard border, unless it's a half-hearted version, in which case it will leave the UK with a partially open border for immigration and goods.It'll be interesting to hear the details.

 

As far as I can see, the backstop is by far the most sensible solution, but then I'm not Irish or Northern Irish. It seems to be the only real Brexit, but of course leaves NI effectively in the EU.

 

The backstop is overwhelmingly supported by majorities in both NI and ROI. It’s just swivels who dislike the backstop without really knowing why other than some posh bloke telling them it amounts to slavery and ideologues who are fixated on a second referendum whatever the costs and long-term consequences.

[Baird of the land]

I don't really understand why the EU doesn't agree to a finite end date for the back-stop and to allow the UK to unilaterally withdraw from it, given a notice period. Article 50 provides for unilateral withdrawal and a finite end date, after which there is no deal, unless a deal has been agreed. As a point of principle, a finite back-stop with unilateral withdrawal seems no different to the pre-exit position on withdrawal. An infinite back-stop with no unilateral right to withdraw puts the exiting country in a less-flexible position than pre-exit which, at a principles level, is obviously wrong.

 

If that concession was made, which puts the EU in no worse a position than the current situation (particularly when taken alongside the other aspects of the WA), we'd probably have a deal.

 

Yes, it kicks the can down the road somewhat - you've still got to deal with what happens after the back-stop - but so does "no deal" and so does the proposed WA.

 

I'm critical of our government's approach and ineptitude over the last few years but I think the EU's position on the back-stop is certainly a subject of valid criticism. I don't think they would be conceding much, in practical terms, by offering the unilateral ability to the UK to end it.

 

A finite end and/or a unilateral withdrawal makes the backstop worthless. Can't see why the EU would ever agree to selling one of their members down the river in such a way or destroy the integrity of the single market.

[benjii]

There was an indication that they would flex on that, but Boris has the Backstop as one of his red lines, and that even a time limited backstop is not acceptable.

 

Fair enough - I must have missed that. Boris needs to control the Swivels then, really.

 

A finite end and/or a unilateral withdrawal makes the backstop worthless. Can't see why the EU would ever agree to selling one of their members down the river in such a way or destroy the integrity of the single market.

 

But Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty allows a finite end to membership unilaterally. Is the Lisbon Treaty "worthless"?. The point of this sort of back-stop I am suggesting would be that it preserves continuity whilst a permanent solution is looked for but doesn't conflict with the principle of self-determination under Article 50. The EU pushed it too far and May should never have brought back the WA with the back-stop in its current form; we should have pushed harder for a firm ability to draw a line under it, even if that was after a lengthy notice period.

[shurlock]

Fair enough - I must have missed that. Boris needs to control the Swivels then, really.

 

 

 

But Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty allows a finite end to membership unilaterally. Is the Lisbon Treaty "worthless"?. The point of this sort of back-stop I am suggesting would be that it preserves continuity whilst a permanent solution is looked for but doesn't conflict with the principle of self-determination under Article 50. The EU pushed it too far and May should never have brought back the WA with the back-stop in its current form; we should have pushed harder for a firm ability to draw a line under it, even if that was after a lengthy notice period.

 

The Lisbon Treaty simply refers to member states sovereign ability to trigger article 50 in the first place - what follows afterwards when they are no longer members of the EU is a different matter. At any rate, the UK has always been free to accept or reject the backstop -it is a sovereign choice- just that it must bear the political and economic consequences if it chooses to reject it. It makes no sense to time limit the backstop - it violates its insurance function never mind that as soon as you put an arbitrary number on it, it’ll be red meat for the swivels. What matters are the robustness of the processes regulating the UK’s ability leave the backstop, once in it, ensuring that neither party is acting in bad faith.

Edited 1 October, 2019 by shurlock

[Baird of the land]

Fair enough - I must have missed that. Boris needs to control the Swivels then, really.

 

But Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty allows a finite end to membership unilaterally. Is the Lisbon Treaty "worthless"?. The point of this sort of back-stop I am suggesting would be that it preserves continuity whilst a permanent solution is looked for but doesn't conflict with the principle of self-determination under Article 50. The EU pushed it too far and May should never have brought back the WA with the back-stop in its current form; we should have pushed harder for a firm ability to draw a line under it, even if that was after a lengthy notice period.

 

Membership will end if not article 50 isn't extended requiring hard borders with EU.

It's the Good Friday agreement that requires an open border in Ireland. The backstop was the UK's solution to that conundrum of a treaty/peace requiring an open border, the EU's goal (integrity of single market) and the uk's goal (integrity of uk market). The EU is well within its rights to make the treaty a prerequisite for a future trade deal, transition period etc.

 

The reality is the only solutions are border in Irish Sea or alignment between EU/UK(backstop).

[norwaysaint]

The backstop is overwhelmingly supported by majorities in both NI and ROI. It’s just swivels who dislike the backstop without really knowing why other than some posh bloke telling them it amounts to slavery and ideologues who are fixated on a second referendum whatever the costs and long-term consequences.

 

Thanks for the response, but can't we try to move away from the childish name calling? It's the biggest obstacle to discussion there is. Nobody is going to take anyone seriously while they are still operating at that level.

 

It's interesting to hear it's supported in Ireland though. Where is that from?

[shurlock]

Thanks for the response, but can't we try to move away from the childish name calling? It's the biggest obstacle to discussion there is. Nobody is going to take anyone seriously while they are still operating at that level.

 

It's interesting to hear it's supported in Ireland though. Where is that from?

 

https://news.sky.com/story/sky-data-poll-irish-overwhelmingly-back-governments-pressure-on-backstop-11629673

[Shroppie]

The incessant repetition of "Get Brexit done" is just an indication of the Tories' desperation. It's not what the majority in the country want - "Get Brexit gone" is the reality.

 

But the only way the Tories' can cling to power in the next election is to remove the Brexit Party's only reason for existing. Brexit is nothing to do with the well-being and future of Britain. It's about the survival of the Tory Party.

 

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[shurlock]

The incessant repetition of "Get Brexit done" is just an indication of the Tories' desperation. It's not what the majority in the country want - "Get Brexit gone" is the reality.

 

But the only way the Tories' can cling to power in the next election is to remove the Brexit Party's only reason for existing. Brexit is nothing to do with the well-being and future of Britain. It's about the survival of the Tory Party.

 

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It is the most simplistic and misleading slogan around (see Ivan Rogers); yet I wouldn't be surprised if it resonated with voters who are understandably fed up but should know better.

Edited 1 October, 2019 by shurlock

[badgerx16]

Brexit is nothing to do with the well-being and future of Britain, it's about the survival of the Tory Party.

Always has been, the referendum was only ever about mollifying the right wing of the Conservative party.

[norwaysaint]

https://news.sky.com/story/sky-data-poll-irish-overwhelmingly-back-governments-pressure-on-backstop-11629673

 

Thanks. Seems crazy that Boris and the others blocked the deal and stopped brexitwhen it's what the people wanted.

[OldNick]

The incessant repetition of "Get Brexit done" is just an indication of the Tories' desperation. It's not what the majority in the country want - "Get Brexit gone" is the reality.

 

But the only way the Tories' can cling to power in the next election is to remove the Brexit Party's only reason for existing. Brexit is nothing to do with the well-being and future of Britain. It's about the survival of the Tory Party.

 

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if that is the case then the opposition parties should vote for an election as the majority will obviously vote them in

[OldNick]

https://news.sky.com/story/sky-data-poll-irish-overwhelmingly-back-governments-pressure-on-backstop-11629673

I don’t get that as surely the border will be in place if we don’t do a deal, and so surely they should be campaigning to get a deal done without the backstop. If we leave, the EU will be forced to put up borders, would we not be able to say we aren’t going to put one up and so the EU/Irish have to do the border and they are the ones making the move not us

[Shroppie]

if that is the case then the opposition parties should vote for an election as the majority will obviously vote them in

In theory that's a plan. But calling an election now could close down parliament down over 31st Oct and let no-deal through by default.

 

And a GE doesn't answer the Brexit question as both leavers and remainers are spread across parties.

 

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[norwaysaint]

I don’t get that as surely the border will be in place if we don’t do a deal, and so surely they should be campaigning to get a deal done without the backstop. If we leave, the EU will be forced to put up borders, would we not be able to say we aren’t going to put one up and so the EU/Irish have to do the border and they are the ones making the move not us

 

I am reading that completely opposite. The Irish and Northern Irish are the ones most affected by the backstop, which was the main reason the deal was rejected. But if we listen to them, it's what they would have preferred.

 

If we leave with no deal and fail to secure the borders, then it goes against everything many leave voters voted for. Leaving open uncontrolled borders.

 

Forcing the EU/Irish to fix the problem and secure the border seems cowardly and a failure to stand up for our own decisions. The situation, whatever it turns out to be, is created by the British alone.

[badgerx16]

if that is the case then the opposition parties should vote for an election as the majority will obviously vote them in

But under FPTP the opposition votes would be spread, Lab/Lib in England, SNP/Lib in Scotland, and Plaid/Lab in Wales so whilst they might collectively garner a majority of the votes, unless the Brexit bunch significantly split the Tory vote, ( without taking too many from Labour ), the Tories could still end up as the biggest party at Westminster. An electoral pact between the opposition parties, however, might change things in their collective favour.

[badgerx16]

No need to panic, Greggs are stockpiling pork in case of a no-deal.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49890034

[Unbelievable Jeff]

No need to panic, Greggs are stockpiling pork in case of a no-deal.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49890034

 

I would assume 99% of Gregg's customers are Brexiteers, so that's big news for them.

[rallyboy]

Behind the triumphant press releases it doesn't sound like Boris has actually come up with anything new.

 

So when it fails and he blames the EU for dismissing a backstop solution that has already been dismissed by all sides, can we turn the attention back on Boris?

He sold the original idea, spent a couple of years smugly boasting how easy it should be, worked to block a deal, then promised to deliver one.

Cumming's strategy is so transparent even the most dedicated Daily Mail reader could predict it.

It's going to fail - and it's going to be everyone else's fault.

[norwaysaint]

Behind the triumphant press releases it doesn't sound like Boris has actually come up with anything new.

 

So when it fails and he blames the EU for dismissing a backstop solution that has already been dismissed by all sides, can we turn the attention back on Boris?

He sold the original idea, spent a couple of years smugly boasting how easy it should be, worked to block a deal, then promised to deliver one.

Cumming's strategy is so transparent even the most dedicated Daily Mail reader could predict it.

It's going to fail - and it's going to be everyone else's fault.

 

I think you'll find Boris is working extremely hard and being practical and businesslike. I know this because he's had them take pictures of him rolling his sleeves up while he sits down at a laptop.

 

I still don't see why the backstop isn't the best solution for everyone. It would keep a secure border, avoid breaking the peace agreement and it's what the Irish and Northern Irish wanted for their countries. I think May and the EU did the hard work and found the best solution to a difficult problem. It feels as if it was blocked mainly by politicians who didn't want Brexit, so wouldn't have backed any deal and by people like BJ who were pursuing their own agenda and really not backing Brexit or following the people's choice. It's crazy that with all of this bluster about people trying to stop Brexit, it could already have been done if he and others like him had accepted the best and only deal. It feels like the UK ends up with the worst solution, no deal, just because Boris wanted it to be him doing it rather than May.

 

It's a little outrageous that he talks about other people trying to block Brexit, when he has been one of the biggest obstacles.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

I think you'll find Boris is working extremely hard and being practical and businesslike. I know this because he's had them take pictures of him rolling his sleeves up while he sits down at a laptop.

 

I still don't see why the backstop isn't the best solution for everyone. It would keep a secure border, avoid breaking the peace agreement and it's what the Irish and Northern Irish wanted for their countries. I think May and the EU did the hard work and found the best solution to a difficult problem. It feels as if it was blocked mainly by politicians who didn't want Brexit, so wouldn't have backed any deal and by people like BJ who were pursuing their own agenda and really not backing Brexit or following the people's choice. It's crazy that with all of this bluster about people trying to stop Brexit, it could already have been done if he and others like him had accepted the best and only deal. It feels like the UK ends up with the worst solution, no deal, just because Boris wanted it to be him doing it rather than May.

 

It's a little outrageous that he talks about other people trying to block Brexit, when he has been one of the biggest obstacles.

 

The best solution is a deal which incorporates a customs union, but that aint gonna happen cos it's not "taking back control".

[Shroppie]

Unless something unexpected happens in the next few days, we're going to be into the interesting endgame. Can he force through no-deal? How?

 

Various possibilities. He could request the extension but then refuse it. He could fix the EU to refuse to offer it, maybe. But he's insisted he won't even ask.

 

Or hope someone else takes over, asks for the extension and can then be blamed.

 

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[Baird of the land]

Boris has pulled the release trigger on his derisory plan as a pretense to claim he actually tried to negotiate a deal.

Intrigued to see what 's going to happen when he's faced with having to obey the Benn act.

Hopefully parliament expediate it based on continued attempts by govt figures to claim they'll get round it.

[badgerx16]

Boris to offer new powers to the Stormont assembly - which hasn't sat in session for three years.

[norwaysaint]

This new deal suggestion clearly seems to be far worse than May's deal. I get the impression that, after three votes, everyone is just too embarrassed to say "Actually, the original deal is far better than any of the other options and we're going to end up doing something really stupid if we don't admit there's no better brexit".

 

What a mess.

[aintforever]

Looks like after three years of internal fighting, time wasting and can-kicking the Tories are focusing on stage managing an outcome that blames everyone else except them.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

Now, surely there is a way for Parliament - as it now has control - to bring back and vote through the Withdrawal Agreement?

[Unbelievable Jeff]

Did anyone watch 'Thick and Dom' doing PMQs?

[aintforever]

Now, surely there is a way for Parliament - as it now has control - to bring back and vote through the Withdrawal Agreement?

 

What, the agreement that pretty much everyone said was sh!t?

[badgerx16]

Looks like after three years of internal fighting, time wasting and can-kicking the Tories are focusing on stage managing an outcome that blames everyone else except them.

 

It's those nasty Europeans, they want to punish us.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

What, the agreement that pretty much everyone said was sh!t?

 

Yep, but apart from the backstop issue, no-one could tell you what was **** about it.

[OldNick]

It's those nasty Europeans, they want to punish us.

well they are not going to do anything to help us as they dont want other nations to leave as well. I dont blame them wanting to do the best deal for their club, as I would do the same. They are just fortunate they are negotiating with a splintered nation. Had our political elite stuck together and done the right thing for our nation our deal would have been better for all.

[rallyboy]

Did anyone else laugh out loud when Boris said the Conservatives are the party of the NHS?

It's like saying the badger cull is great news for badgers.

He's beyond parody now.

I do hope they commission a second series, this first one's been hilarious.

[aintforever]

Yep, but apart from the backstop issue, no-one could tell you what was **** about it.

 

Yep, but the backstop was why it was considered sh!t, and it's the NI border that is causing the issue now.

[shurlock]

F**k it, can’t we just GATT XXIV it?

[norwaysaint]

Yep, but the backstop was why it was considered sh!t, and it's the NI border that is causing the issue now.

 

The backstop is clearly a better solution than pretty much every alternative.

[aintforever]

The backstop is clearly a better solution than pretty much every alternative.

 

You are probably right, which is why a second referendum is the obvious way forward.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

Yep, but the backstop was why it was considered sh!t, and it's the NI border that is causing the issue now.

 

Yes, but there was no alternative mentioned to the backstop, so that was irrelevant. The backstop was the best we could do, so the WA was decent.

[badgerx16]

F**k it, can’t we just GATT XXIV it?

 

Has GM hijacked your account ?

[saint1977]

Looks like after three years of internal fighting, time wasting and can-kicking the Tories are focusing on stage managing an outcome that blames everyone else except them.

 

But one which suits one of Boris’s bosses, Crispin Odious, very nicely indeed so he can profit from the carcasses on a no deal, just like he allegedly did to the tune of £220m in 2016 after the result. Democracy my arse.

[badgerx16]

Looks like Boris's proposals are going down in Europe as well as Teresa May's 'deal' did in the HoC.

[CB Fry]

Looks like Boris's proposals are going down in Europe as well as Teresa May's 'deal' did in the HoC.

Boris is doing it his way round, and the ERG are nodding it along because

 

a) it's Boris doing it not May

b) it fu cks Ireland over therefore the EU won't like it therefore we do like it

c) because of the above they can vote it through and take the moral high ground of "look we voted for a deal"

d) the ERG need us out and we are edging uncomfortably towards a second ref and possibly no Brexit at all

 

It's all pitifully transparent and just about the blame game.

 

 

 

 

From my perspective I think Johnson might regret bringing the border down the Irish sea into the equation. Our friends in Brussels I think will run with that in a no-deal situation. Although in fairness its always been their obvious go-to.

 

And, of course, Gove and Johnson have said over and over again that Britain is ready for no deal. So that means its absolutely impossible for the EU to punish the UK in that scenario because we're absolutely ready. Aren't we?

Edited 4 October, 2019 by CB Fry

[Unbelievable Jeff]

Boris is doing it his way round, and the ERG are nodding it along because

 

a) it's Boris doing it not May

b) it fu cks Ireland over therefore the EU won't like it therefore we do like it

c) because of the above they can vote it through and take the moral high ground of "look we voted for a deal"

d) the ERG need us out and we are edging uncomfortably towards a second ref and possibly no Brexit at all

 

It's all pitifully transparent and just about the blame game.

 

 

 

 

From my perspective I think Johnson might regret bringing the border down the Irish sea into the equation. Our friends in Brussels I think will run with that in a no-deal situation. Although in fairness its always been their obvious go-to.

 

And, of course, Gove and Johnson have said over and over again that Britain is ready for no deal. So that means its absolutely impossible for the EU to punish the UK in that scenario because we're absolutely ready. Aren't we?

 

Yep, the Irish Sea equation has ****ed Johnson now, as with No Deal it won't be the EU contravening the GFA, it will be the British Government. It actually may mean that we cant now leave with no deal, as it will ruin Johnson and the Tory party.

[Shroppie]

Latest opinion poll showing over 63% now want to remain. Obviously not being ng reported very widely.

 

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[Batman]

Latest opinion poll showing over 63% now want to remain. Obviously not being ng reported very widely.

 

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Polls are bollix.

Some are showing a stonking victory for the Torys in a GE. We all know that will not be the case

[Unbelievable Jeff]

Polls are bollix.

Some are showing a stonking victory for the Torys in a GE. We all know that will not be the case

 

I'll agree with you here, polls are ********.

[badgerx16]

Given the submission to the Scottish court that states BoJo will produce the letter to the EU requesting an extension to the deadline, as required by the Benn Act, any ideas as to what the cunning plan to still deliver Brexit on 31st Oct might be ?

[Shroppie]

Given the submission to the Scottish court that states BoJo will produce the letter to the EU requesting an extension to the deadline, as required by the Benn Act, any ideas as to what the cunning plan to still deliver Brexit on 31st Oct might be ?

Simply decline it when offered? Try to engineer a member state vetoing it?

 

If I understand correctly, both of those are open to legal challenge.

 

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