Brexit - Post Match Reaction

[shurlock]

As has been noted, the people who voted for Brexit, generally:

 

- had specific vested interests (generally a small number of people)

 

- were semi-senile old duffers

 

- were uneducated and ignorant.

 

Them's the facts.

 

We can see some of them on this thread. In some posters, we have instances of overlap. We all know who they are.

 

Those people don't care if they're right. This is about getting a win. It's about:

 

- narcissism and self promotion;

 

- a curmudgeonly "up yours" to a generation and a world they increasingly don't understand (particularly ironic given that this group, through pure generational serendipity has had more to be thankful for than most);

 

- getting one over on the establishment and, for once, exercising some political influence; impotent losers waking up one day with a raging morning glory and waving it at the man who, unbeknownst to them, is planning to grease them up for the bumming of a lifetime.

 

 

You know the old duffers and oddball culture war types on here better than they know themselves.

[Shroppie]

As has been noted, the people who voted for Brexit, generally:

 

- had specific vested interests (generally a small number of people)

 

- were semi-senile old duffers

 

- were uneducated and ignorant.

 

Them's the facts.

 

We can see some of them on this thread. In some posters, we have instances of overlap. We all know who they are.

 

Those people don't care if they're right. This is about getting a win. It's about:

 

- narcissism and self promotion;

 

- a curmudgeonly "up yours" to a generation and a world they increasingly don't understand (particularly ironic given that this group, through pure generational serendipity has had more to be thankful for than most);

 

- getting one over on the establishment and, for once, exercising some political influence; impotent losers waking up one day with a raging morning glory and waving it at the man who, unbeknownst to them, is planning to grease them up for the bumming of a lifetime.

Very well put, and very true. For many Brexiteers, it's just about winning, never mind the consequences.

 

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[buctootim]

I know it's not an EU related decision, but is this indicative of the sort of European legal ruling that Brexiteers are opposed to ?

 

"A French company has been found liable for the death of an employee who had a cardiac arrest while having sex with a stranger on a business trip.

 

A Paris court ruled that his death was an industrial accident and that the family was entitled to compensation."

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-49662134

 

Probably. But it makes sense when you dig a bit more. It’s about insurance and the ability to claim if you die on a work trip . As opposed to the company being able exclude some circumstances, like if you got blown up while on a work trip to Afghanistan

[whelk]

Operation Yellowhammer: Government no-deal Brexit documents released http://news.sky.com/story/operation-yellowhammer-government-no-deal-brexit-documents-released-11807339

 

Who’s not in favour for their electric bill going through the roof? Man up

[Unbelievable Jeff]

Operation Yellowhammer: Government no-deal Brexit documents released http://news.sky.com/story/operation-yellowhammer-government-no-deal-brexit-documents-released-11807339

 

Who’s not in favour for their electric bill going through the roof? Man up

 

The release of this has just seen 10 million people go from leave to remain...

[Shroppie]

And they've refused to release the communications between advisers regarding Yellowhammer and prorogation planning, as demanded by parliament.

 

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[Cartman]

Operation Yellowhammer: Government no-deal Brexit documents released http://news.sky.com/story/operation-yellowhammer-government-no-deal-brexit-documents-released-11807339

 

Who’s not in favour for their electric bill going through the roof? Man up

 

Points 5 (electricity prices increase), 6 (disruption to medical supplies and reduced ability to prevent disease outbreaks), 7 (increased food prices and potential supply disruptions), 12 (Gibraltar is screwed), 15 (redacted entirely, couldn't bring themselves to show what was written there) & 18 (businesses folding, relocating or passing increased trading costs onto consumers and increase in black market activity) in particular all sound like a lot of fun. GERRONWIVIT!!111!!!

[buctootim]

And they've refused to release the communications between advisers regarding Yellowhammer and prorogation planning, as demanded by parliament

 

By claiming it would be unfair to the people involved. Yet it was okay to demand the personal phone messages of the Chancellors SPAD?

[doddisalegend]

Operation Yellowhammer: Government no-deal Brexit documents released http://news.sky.com/story/operation-yellowhammer-government-no-deal-brexit-documents-released-11807339

 

Who’s not in favour for their electric bill going through the roof? Man up

 

Surely this just more project fear put out be filthy traitorous remainers...like the errr goverment

[Cartman]

Points 5 (electricity prices increase), 6 (disruption to medical supplies and reduced ability to prevent disease outbreaks), 7 (increased food prices and potential supply disruptions), 12 (Gibraltar is screwed), 15 (redacted entirely, couldn't bring themselves to show what was written there) & 18 (businesses folding, relocating or passing increased trading costs onto consumers and increase in black market activity) in particular all sound like a lot of fun. GERRONWIVIT!!111!!!

 

It seems point 15 was closure of two fuel refineries and 2000 job losses leading to disruptions in fuel availability in the regions directly supplied by those refineries. Also the title of the document was changed from "base scenario" to "reasonable worst case scenario".

[buctootim]

It seems point 15 was closure of two fuel refineries and 2000 job losses leading to disruptions in fuel availability in the regions directly supplied by those refineries. Also the title of the document was changed from "base scenario" to "reasonable worst case scenario".

 

And as the area affected was SE England there is a good chance they mean Fawley.

[badgerx16]

Operation Yellowhammer: Government no-deal Brexit documents released http://news.sky.com/story/operation-yellowhammer-government-no-deal-brexit-documents-released-11807339

 

Who’s not in favour for their electric bill going through the roof? Man up

Why rename it from 'Base Case' ? If it wasn't the 'Worst Case' then, it isn't now.

 

As noted above, point 15, according to the copy leaked a month ago :"Petrol import tariffs, which the government has set at 0%, will “inadvertently” lead to the closure of two oil refineries, 2,000 job losses, widespread strike action and disruptions to fuel availability"

Edited 11 September, 2019 by badgerx16

[whelk]

Why rename it from 'Base Case' ? If it wasn't the 'Worst Case' then, it isn't now.

 

As noted above, point 15, according to the copy leaked a month ago :"Petrol import tariffs, which the government has set at 0%, will “inadvertently” lead to the closure of two oil refineries, 2,000 job losses, widespread strike action and disruptions to fuel availability"

 

Might have to look to buy a cheap second home in the waterside area.

[doddisalegend]

It's ok I've just seen Nigel on telly the government paper is just project fear

mark II so we can all just relax and get on with a clean break brexit (Whatever the **** that is supposed to be)

 

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[Unbelievable Jeff]

This paper is a disaster for the no-deal nut jobs.

[doddisalegend]

This paper is a disaster for the no-deal nut jobs.

 

Probably not. Like I said Farage was on telly last night basically calling the whole thing more project fear. Most of his cultists will go along with that idea so I doubt this will change their mind one bit. For the rest of us we knew a no deal Brexit was the worst kind of Brexit and this just adds more conformation the we are right.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

Probably not. Like I said Farage was on telly last night basically calling the whole thing more project fear. Most of his cultists will go along with that idea so I doubt this will change their mind one bit. For the rest of us we knew a no deal Brexit was the worst kind of Brexit and this just adds more conformation the we are right.

 

For those that were looking to vote Conservative in the next election it pushes them over to the Brexit Party though I would have thought as the Tories have to campaign on a deal now, and I would have thought they will have to rule out no deal as the risks are now "official".

[shurlock]

Probably not. Like I said Farage was on telly last night basically calling the whole thing more project fear. Most of his cultists will go along with that idea so I doubt this will change their mind one bit. For the rest of us we knew a no deal Brexit was the worst kind of Brexit and this just adds more conformation the we are right.

 

Given that Yellowhammer was intended only for internal consumption and not to be shared with the public, so it’s a bit odd to talk about project fear. Who were civil servants trying to persuade or scare - each other? Or as ever was it just their best reading of the situation with the facts at hand.

[doddisalegend]

Given that Yellowhammer was intended only for internal consumption and not to be shared with the public, so it’s a bit odd to talk about project fear. Who were civil servants trying to persuade or scare - each other? Or as ever was it just their best reading of the situation with the facts at hand.

Farage is campaigning on his "clean break" brexit so he can't agree with yellowhammer. I guess last night, on the telly, he just went to his default stance with anything negative about leaving comes up "project fear".

 

You just know the sort of people that go to his, air raid siren filled, speech's will lap it up along side their fear of Straight bananas and being molested in their beds by hairy Romanian immigrants. Yellow hammer won't change their opinion on a deal brexit one bit.

 

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[doddisalegend]

For those that were looking to vote Conservative in the next election it pushes them over to the Brexit Party though I would have thought as the Tories have to campaign on a deal now, and I would have thought they will have to rule out no deal as the risks are now "official".

The worrying thing is I assume Boris and his crew knew about this paper while trying to sneak us out on a no deal. Thank **** for the MPs in parliament.

 

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[badgerx16]

Business Minister Kwasi Kwarteng hiding his opinion that the judiciary is biased against the Government by hiding behind "People are saying.....". Will the "Enemies of the People" newspaper front pages make a reappearance ?

[John B]

So, after reading Yellowhammer, I think Project Fear can officially be renamed 'Project We ****ing Told You So'.

[Shroppie]

Farage is campaigning on his "clean break" brexit so he can't agree with yellowhammer. I guess last night, on the telly, he just went to his default stance with anything negative about leaving comes up "project fear".

 

You just know the sort of people that go to his, air raid siren filled, speech's will lap it up along side their fear of Straight bananas and being molested in their beds by hairy Romanian immigrants. Yellow hammer won't change their opinion on a deal brexit one bit.

 

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Yes. Project Fear. As you say, Farage's instant response to any legitimate evidence of problems or even chaos after Brexit.

 

"Project Fear" needs exposing as it's too easy for the unthinking masses to pick up as a way of avoiding any consideration of real issues and, in two words, laugh them off without any justification, response or evidence. Clever invention of Farage but totally fits his approach - simple slogans with no meaning designed to dismiss questions without answering them. And if that fails, talk over the questioner, All the time with a moronic grin whilst attempting ridicule. Never an answer. Johnson is working on it, but not there yet.

 

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[Batman]

So, after reading Yellowhammer, I think Project Fear can officially be renamed 'Project We ****ing Told You So'.

 

It is a worst case scenario

 

Much like the worst case scenario for voting to leave, I doubt any of it will happen

[badgerx16]

It is a worst case scenario

 

No it isn't, it's a "Base Case", whatever that is but I presume they mean baseline, that has been retitled before yesterday's forced release.

[shurlock]

No it isn't, it's a "Base Case", whatever that is but I presume they mean baseline, that has been retitled before yesterday's forced release.

 

Project Fear. Osborne. Punishment Budget. Cleggy. EU Army blah blah blah.

Edited 12 September, 2019 by shurlock

[Batman]

No it isn't, it's a "Base Case", whatever that is but I presume they mean baseline, that has been retitled before yesterday's forced release.

 

Baseline for a worst case scenario.

Much like the baseline for voting to leave.

 

It never happened

[OldNick]

https://www.hl.co.uk/news/2019/9/12/germany-hides-the-awkward-truth-about-the-euro

[shurlock]

Baseline for a worst case scenario.

Much like the baseline for voting to leave.

 

It never happened

 

Baseline for a worst case scenario - what does that even mean?

 

Best case - base case - worst case. Its not hard to follow.

[OldNick]

Reasonable Worst Case scenario, i expect if the Hampshire Police issued a worst case scenario for the Derby match you'd not go and board your windows up.lol

If you really believe that medicines will be stopped from entering the UK you are as mad as the extreme exitters. We are being played by the establishment and falling for it hook line and sinker.

Any responsible government will look at worst case as they should do, I suspect they will expect something a tad less extreme.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

Reasonable Worst Case scenario, i expect if the Hampshire Police issued a worst case scenario for the Derby match you'd not go and board your windows up.lol

If you really believe that medicines will be stopped from entering the UK you are as mad as the extreme exitters. We are being played by the establishment and falling for it hook line and sinker.

Any responsible government will look at worst case as they should do, I suspect they will expect something a tad less extreme.

 

It was renamed from "Base Case" to "Reasonable Worst Case" - that's the point. Don't forget this was put together by the Government, for the Government.

 

We're being lied to again.

[shurlock]

https://www.hl.co.uk/news/2019/9/12/germany-hides-the-awkward-truth-about-the-euro

 

In other words, the existential weakness of the euro and eurozone is a lack of EU integration. Yet the boffins on here keep telling us that the EU is a federal superstate.

[Batman]

Baseline for a worst case scenario - what does that even mean?

 

Best case - base case - worst case. Its not hard to follow.

 

A reasonable worst case scenario.

 

Much like the reasonable worst case scenarios for voting to leave. None of it will happen

[mrfahaji]

The release of this has just seen 10 million people go from leave to remain...

 

Unfortunately that's assuming even a small percentage of people (especially leavers) will actually read it. Or in some cases, even care. They are far more likely to read the headline and then listen to Farage saying it's more project fear.

[Batman]

Unfortunately that's assuming even a small percentage of people (especially leavers) will actually read it. Or in some cases, even care. They are far more likely to read the headline and then listen to Farage saying it's more project fear.

 

But as a leaver, I was told that we would experience 700,000 immediate job losses, GDP crash, Housing Market crash etc etc etc for just voting to leave (before actually leaving)

 

This was all going to happen and not even dressed up as a worst case scenario...

 

It didn’t happen and in some cases, the exact opposite has occurred.

 

 

I would be more concerned if any government had not provisioned for any worst case scenario, in the extremely unlikely event it will become reality.

Edited 12 September, 2019 by Batman

[mrfahaji]

Reasonable Worst Case scenario, i expect if the Hampshire Police issued a worst case scenario for the Derby match you'd not go and board your windows up.lol

If you really believe that medicines will be stopped from entering the UK you are as mad as the extreme exitters. We are being played by the establishment and falling for it hook line and sinker.

Any responsible government will look at worst case as they should do, I suspect they will expect something a tad less extreme.

 

As somebody who is currently attending the hospital for my wife's cancer treatment, the doctors have told us that after Brexit they simply don't know what the situation will be for the medication. Obviously there is a possibility that it will all be fine, but I'm sure you can appreciate that the risk of it maybe not being fine is not really a scenario that bears thinking about, so it's quite frustrating to read people's opinions like this when actually you don't know one way or or the other. Hospitals have been instructed not to stockpile drugs, so if there is a hold up due to whatever bureaucratic reason (and also, pharmaceutical companies are still profit motivated and don't do things out of sheer kindness), the risk of running out of crucial medication is a real one.

[mrfahaji]

But as a leaver, I was told that we would experience 700,000 immediate job losses, GDP crash, Housing Market crash etc etc etc for just voting to leave (before actually leaving)

 

This was all going to happen and not even dressed up as a worst case scenario...

 

It didn’t happen and in some cases, the exact opposite has occurred.

 

 

I would be more concerned if any government had not provisioned for any worst case scenario, in the extremely unlikely event it will become reality.

 

You're right that in the campaigning Remain went overboard with the negatives, which played into the hands of the opposition, but while all these things haven't happened (yet) and some of it not as bad as claimed (yet), I think it's incorrect to say that none of it has happened, that the experts were totally wrong, and we're actually on the up since voting to leave.

 

Just out of interest, what will be the positive things about us leaving the EU without a deal? Or even with a deal? I'm sure there are some, but most of the comments I see from Leavers are either knocking away warnings as "negative and project fear" or using emotive language about the good old days.

Edited 12 September, 2019 by mrfahaji

[Sheaf Saint]

But as a leaver, I was told that we would experience 700,000 immediate job losses, GDP crash, Housing Market crash etc etc etc for just voting to leave (before actually leaving)

 

This was all going to happen and not even dressed up as a worst case scenario...

 

It didn’t happen and in some cases, the exact opposite has occurred.

 

 

I would be more concerned if any government had not provisioned for any worst case scenario, in the extremely unlikely event it will become reality.

 

This is blatantly untrue. Of course it was all 'worst case scenario'. You'd have to be monumentally thick to believe that those projections were anything else.

 

Who was saying it was all fact? And who would be stupid enough to believe that anybody actually knew exactly what would happen anyway?

 

I agree with mrfahaji that the official remain campaign did overdo it with the negative projections, and instead should have focused more on the positive benefits of retaining our membership. But for you to re-write history and claim they were stating it as absolute fact is disingenuous at best.

[doddisalegend]

It is a worst case scenario

 

Much like the worst case scenario for voting to leave, I doubt any of it will happen

Shame you can't ever muster this level of optimism about saints...

 

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[OldNick]

As somebody who is currently attending the hospital for my wife's cancer treatment, the doctors have told us that after Brexit they simply don't know what the situation will be for the medication. Obviously there is a possibility that it will all be fine, but I'm sure you can appreciate that the risk of it maybe not being fine is not really a scenario that bears thinking about, so it's quite frustrating to read people's opinions like this when actually you don't know one way or or the other. Hospitals have been instructed not to stockpile drugs, so if there is a hold up due to whatever bureaucratic reason (and also, pharmaceutical companies are still profit motivated and don't do things out of sheer kindness), the risk of running out of crucial medication is a real one.

I totally understand your concerns but Iam sure that there will be emergency measure. The RAF will be on standby and the pharm companies will be delighted to sell the product.

[OldNick]

. But for you to re-write history and claim they were stating it as absolute fact is disingenuous at best.

to be fair I suggest a few posters on here are stating it as fact, as well as the media at large.

[scally]

In other words, the existential weakness of the euro and eurozone is a lack of EU integration. Yet the boffins on here keep telling us that the EU is a federal superstate.

 

Is this not one of the reasons people think it's heading towards a federal state? Also funny how the rest of the remoaners on here don't bother responding to the original post

[shurlock]

Is this not one of the reasons people think it's heading towards a federal state? Also funny how the rest of the remoaners on here don't bother responding to the original post

 

Not really. Because they simultaneously claim the euro is going to collapse (because of the contradictions of having a monetary union without a fiscal union). Its difficult to have it both ways pal. Never mind it has little relevance to countries outside the eurozone.

 

What original post? The Heritage Foundation guff?

[OldNick]

was put together by the Government, for the Government.

 

We're being lied to again.

I dont think it was put together by the government but by the Civil service which of course if totally different.

[Batman]

This is blatantly untrue. Of course it was all 'worst case scenario'. You'd have to be monumentally thick to believe that those projections were anything else.

 

Who was saying it was all fact? And who would be stupid enough to believe that anybody actually knew exactly what would happen anyway?

 

I agree with mrfahaji that the official remain campaign did overdo it with the negative projections, and instead should have focused more on the positive benefits of retaining our membership. But for you to re-write history and claim they were stating it as absolute fact is disingenuous at best.

 

It was dressed up as fact by the then Prime Minister and chancellor. Which was used by anyone who wanted us to remain.

 

Immediate...

job losses between 500,000-700,000 (conservative estimate)

Recession, early 90s style

Punishment budget

10% drop in the housing market

GDP slump

Etc etc

All for just voting to leave

 

Funny old thing, the same document highlights a least worst case and worst case scenarios. It’s like these issues are tabled topped. [emoji23]

[Sheaf Saint]

It was dressed up as fact by the then Prime Minister and chancellor. Which was used by anyone who wanted us to remain.

 

Immediate...

job losses between 500,000-700,000 (conservative estimate)

Recession, early 90s style

Punishment budget

10% drop in the housing market

GDP slump

Etc etc

All for just voting to leave

 

Funny old thing, the same document highlights a least worst case and worst case scenarios. It’s like these issues are tabled topped. [emoji23]

 

What document?

[scally]

Not really. Because they simultaneously claim the euro is going to collapse (because of the contradictions of having a monetary union without a fiscal union). Its difficult to have it both ways pal. Never mind it has little relevance to countries outside the eurozone.

 

What original post? The Heritage Foundation guff?

 

So the only way to make the euro work is to have a federal state where the EU can't take over the finance of all the countries involved and move money around when one of them has a financial wobble

[shurlock]

It was dressed up as fact by the then Prime Minister and chancellor. Which was used by anyone who wanted us to remain.

 

Immediate...

job losses between 500,000-700,000 (conservative estimate)

Recession, early 90s style

Punishment budget

10% drop in the housing market

GDP slump

Etc etc

All for just voting to leave

 

Funny old thing, the same document highlights a least worst case and worst case scenarios. It’s like these issues are tabled topped. [emoji23]

 

I guess you don't know the difference between a set of forecasts that was politicised by one of the most political chancellors in living memory and meant for public advocacy and consumption and an internal technocratic document that was produced largely for planning purposes and not loaded with the same baggage. Nigel Evans made a fool of himself earlier today on the radio for missing that obvious difference.

Edited 12 September, 2019 by shurlock

[shurlock]

So the only way to make the euro work is to have a federal state where the EU can't take over the finance of all the countries involved and move money around when one of them has a financial wobble

 

No. Its not an either-or in practice. There are many options available that fall far short of a fullblown federal superstate. Read Martin Sandbu. Again you don't seem to understand the difference between the EU and eurozone. But you're a Brexiter, so what's new

Edited 12 September, 2019 by shurlock

[Guided Missile]

Meanwhile, the death knell for the euro:

 

The ECB just announced a big policy package to revive the Eurozone economy and to bring inflation back to target. Here is what the ECB will do:

• Deposit rate cut by 10 basis point to -0.5pc.
  
• A tiering system will be introduced.
  
• Forward guidance on rates is no longer calendar based but open-ended and state-dependent.
  
• QE will be restarted with 20bn euro per month, starting 1 November. There is no end date added to QE.
  
• The TLTROs will be repriced and include an incentive for banks to increase lending. Along the lines of the first two generations of TLTROs, banks which exceed the benchmark ECB loans will be charged at the deposit rate.
  

The euro is such a good idea that banks charge you for holding them in a deposit account.

 

$h!t or bust from Draghi and crooked Lagarde