Brexit - Post Match Reaction

[shurlock]

They likely won't extend their majority. Most predictions point to a hung Parliament so there will be deadlock again unless there is a broad coalition. If Corbyn is smart, big if, he'll whip against for the GE vote until some kind of Brexit way forward is agreed and beyond the point of no return.

 

Who knows: Corbyn’s riding low in the polls; Johnson is spunking billions on pre-election sweeteners and gearing up for an emotive people-against-parliament-and-johnny-foreigner campaign all before the consequences of No Deal become too obvious.

[aintforever]

I think the bill will pass and be taken out again when the conservatives extend their majority

 

Can’t see that happening, I expect both The Tories and Labour will get a kicking if there is a GE.

[Batman]

Who knows: Corbyn’s riding low in the polls; Johnson is spunking billions on pre-election sweeteners and gearing up for an emotive people-against-parliament campaign all before the consequences of No Deal become too obvious.

 

This will be fought on brexit like you say. The brexit party will more than likely give way in many seats to support the Government meaning a wide range of options for the other side.

[buctootim]

Who knows: Corbyn’s riding low in the polls; Johnson is spunking billions on pre-election sweeteners and gearing up for an emotive people-against-parliament-and-johnny-foreigner campaign all before the consequences of No Deal become too obvious.

 

Agree it will be much harder to predict than a normal non Brexit GE. Seems likely the Tories will lose around 14 seats in Scotland and London. Cant see them making that up elsewhere with BP splitting the vote

[whelk]

"We should recognise that the people are our masters and show us to be their lieges and servants, not to place ourselves in the position of their overlords."

 

I would love him to meet Malcom Tucker

 

Also ignoring nanny’s instruction not to slouch

[saint1977]

This will be fought on brexit like you say. The brexit party will more than likely give way in many seats to support the Government meaning a wide range of options for the other side.

 

Only if Boris definitely rules out a deal Farage has repeatedly said. That will lose the Tories key seats plus Farage campaigning for them is likely to maximise the Remain turnouts. As we saw in Peterborough, Brexit is not always a strong enough motivation to move enough votes to win seats on its own. Likely to be another hung parliament. Both sides need to compromise after that - Norway respects the referendum and is the only option that has been anywhere near a majority in parliament.

 

Then everyone can move on to health, social care, education, policing, environment and the economy - the stuff that actually matters.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

This will be fought on brexit like you say. The brexit party will more than likely give way in many seats to support the Government meaning a wide range of options for the other side.

 

Won't happen as Boris will have to campaign based on wanting a deal, or his vote will be cut to just Brexiteers who want no deal (which is obviously far fewer voters). If he campaigns on wanting a deal, the Brexit party will go against him, splitting the vote.

 

As GM said yesterday, Boris has played a blinder.

 

And as I repeatedly said before the Tory leadership election, a vote for Boris is a vote for No Brexit.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

Only if Boris definitely rules out a deal Farage has repeatedly said. That will lose the Tories key seats plus Farage campaigning for them is likely to maximise the Remain turnouts. As we saw in Peterborough, Brexit is not always a strong enough motivation to move enough votes to win seats on its own. Likely to be another hung parliament. Both sides need to compromise after that - Norway respects the referendum and is the only option that has been anywhere near a majority in parliament.

 

Then everyone can move on to health, social care, education, policing, environment and the economy - the stuff that actually matters.

 

Don't mention Norway, Wes will have pay £50 to Tim's choice of charity, which I believe is going to be to help Arabs and Jews against racism...delicious.

[sadoldgit]

Rees-Mogg and Johnson continue to show contempt for Parliament and the people they are supposed to serve, but it is good to see that some members of the Tory party have principles and backbones. Pass the popcorn, after years of misrule and blaming everything on others, the chickens are now coming home to roost. If there is such a thing as karma, the Tories might just be about to get what they deserve. They have had 3 years to sort out Brexit and we are no closer to knowing what we want from a deal thanks to the inept May. The EU have played a blinder in throwing the ball back into Johnson’s court as they know full well that he is as clueless as Donald Trump and all they have to do is call his bluff. The downside is that the rest of us will be financially shafted whilst this tragic comedy plays itself out for the foreseeable future.

[Plastic]

Had to be done, sorry.

Edited 3 September, 2019 by Plastic
Not my work, Twitter.

[shurlock]

Had to be done, sorry.

 

[buctootim]

Don't mention Norway, Wes will have pay £50 to Tim's choice of charity, which I believe is going to be to help Arabs and Jews against racism...delicious.

 

[buctootim]

What do people think Johnson will do if he loses both the vote for a GE and the vote on no deal? Resign or try another tack?

[Unbelievable Jeff]

Had to be done, sorry.

 

That is ****ing amazing

[Unbelievable Jeff]

What do people think Johnson will do if he loses both the vote for a GE and the vote on no deal? Resign or try another tack?

 

He needs to resign TBH. What do our ever do quiet Brexiteers think should happen? They voted him in on his promise to leave on the 31st October. He will have failed, and everyone was to judge him on that.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

Wow, Boris has removed the whip from Ken Clarke.

 

Staggering.

 

Also, what we will see tonight is Churchill's Grandson expelled from the Conservative party. The Conservatives are dead in anything but name.

Edited 3 September, 2019 by Unbelievable Jeff

[CB Fry]

Bravo for kicking out the sopping wet pinkos etc etc.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

Hopefully we'll hear Ed Vaizey on James O'Brien tomorrow.

[buctootim]

Bravo for kicking out the sopping wet pinkos etc etc.

 

Down to 289 out of 650 and counting...

[buctootim]

He needs to resign TBH. What do our ever do quiet Brexiteers think should happen? They voted him in on his promise to leave on the 31st October. He will have failed, and everyone was to judge him on that.

 

Some people are claiming that if the executive (ie the cabinet) no confidences itself that would trigger a GE without a need for a 2/3 majority vote. No idea if that is legal or likely but if he goes down that road all of a sudden anybody but him starts to look preferable.

[Tamesaint]

Some people are claiming that if the executive (ie the cabinet) no confidences itself that would trigger a GE without a need for a 2/3 majority vote. No idea if that is legal or likely but if he goes down that road all of a sudden anybody but him starts to look preferable.

 

A government declaring no confidence in itself is not a good look.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

Some people are claiming that if the executive (ie the cabinet) no confidences itself that would trigger a GE without a need for a 2/3 majority vote. No idea if that is legal or likely but if he goes down that road all of a sudden anybody but him starts to look preferable.

 

It would still need a majority though, and they now have 289 seats - it still wouldn't happen.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

So, Corbyn has said he will have an election once the legislation has passed. The issue is that to get the legislation through will take until proroguation, leaving no time for a post legislation vote on a GE. This means that the reason we cannot have a GE, and leave before October 31st, is due to the proroguation that Boris proposed.

 

Lapping up that delicious irony.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

Don't forget everyone...

 

BoJo's playing a blinder. No deal brexit, get rid of the Lib Dem infestation and greatly increase the Conservative majority at the next GE. A free trade agreement with the US, the EU on the back foot and the dream of the opening post on this thread, comes true.

 

I love this country...

[Tamesaint]

So, Corbyn has said he will have an election once the legislation has passed. The issue is that to get the legislation through will take until proroguation, leaving no time for a post legislation vote on a GE. This means that the reason we cannot have a GE, and leave before October 31st, is due to the proroguation that Boris proposed.

 

Lapping up that delicious irony.

 

.... you must be wrong. GM told us that Johnson was playing a blinder. Pompey Poly graduates are always correct.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

.... you must be wrong. GM told us that Johnson was playing a blinder. Pompey Poly graduates are always correct.

 

Not been wrong often in this thread...I maintained at the time and still do now, a vote for Boris in the leadership election, was a vote for no Brexit.

 

And this man...what a cretinous fool.

 

Edited 4 September, 2019 by Unbelievable Jeff

[badgerx16]

So, Corbyn has said he will have an election once the legislation has passed. The issue is that to get the legislation through will take until proroguation, leaving no time for a post legislation vote on a GE. This means that the reason we cannot have a GE, and leave before October 31st, is due to the proroguation that Boris proposed.

 

Lapping up that delicious irony.

We won't have a GE called before Oct 31st because the PM has the power to change the date of the vote once it has been called, so Boris could simply shift it to, for instance, Nov 14th, and in the meantime we would leave the EU without a deal by default. This is why today's debate is so important, the deadline must be extended beyond the point to which BoJo could move the polling day.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

We won't have a GE called before Oct 31st because the PM has the power to change the date of the vote once it has been called, so Boris could simply shift it to, for instance, Nov 14th, and in the meantime we would leave the EU without a deal by default. This is why today's debate is so important, the deadline must be extended beyond the point to which BoJo could move the polling day.

 

Yes, obviously, but the 31st October deadline was Boris's red line. This is why Corbyn has said he will have an election once the legislation has passed. My point is that he has ****ed his own red lines due to his prorogation. If he hadn't prorogued Parliament he'd have time to call and complete the election once the No Deal legislation went through, get his majority and exit before October 31st.

Edited 4 September, 2019 by Unbelievable Jeff

[Wes Tender]

Timmy

what Johnson wants is May's deal minus the backstop - ie nearly two more years in the single market and customs union. During those two years he'd negotiate something near identical except in name to those transitional arrangements. But you aren't, so you don't.

 

I challenged you to another £50 bet that this situation won't arise. I see that you have ignored it. Still smarting because the chances of your Norway deal are now extremely remote? Certainly your original prediction didn't factor in that May would spend nearly three years negotiating what became her Surrender Treaty and would then be gone. As I say, you're really not very good at this prediction game, so are you prepared to back it up, or not?

[Guided Missile]

Boris continues to play a blinder. Gets rid of the Lib Dem infestation in one day and calls a GE the next day. Follows that up with no deal and a pact with the Brexit party and Corbyn is toast and the Conservatives have a 50 seat majority. I love it...

[Guided Missile]

My prediction for today:

 

The government tables a short bill which sets aside the provisions of the FTPA to allow an election on a specific date. This bill would only require a simple majority to pass.

[badgerx16]

My prediction for today:

 

The government tables a short bill which sets aside the provisions of the FTPA to allow an election on a specific date. This bill would only require a simple majority to pass.

After the bill to block no-deal on Oct 31st been passed. And you seem to be getting your predictions from the BBC news feed.

Edited 4 September, 2019 by badgerx16

[shurlock]

My prediction for today:

 

The government tables a short bill which sets aside the provisions of the FTPA to allow an election on a specific date. This bill would only require a simple majority to pass.

 

Everybody is mentioning it JJ.

[badgerx16]

Rory Stewart received a text message informing him of his sacking as he was receiving an award as GQ's 'Politician of the year'.

[Plastic]

So, who can tell me what the chances are of revoking article 50 are now?

Would this be a Labour / LibDem policy commitment in a GE?

[shurlock]

So, who can tell me what the chances are of revoking article 50 are now?

Would this be a Labour / LibDem policy commitment in a GE?

 

Very very very unlikely.

[Plastic]

Very very very unlikely.

 

Oh, what a shame.

My idiot MP voted for May’s deal, however she voted against the motion last night.

 

Fair to say, I think she will be gone come the next election / by-election.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

My prediction for today:

 

The government tables a short bill which sets aside the provisions of the FTPA to allow an election on a specific date. This bill would only require a simple majority to pass.

 

Yes, but there is no majority for it. What a shame.

 

By the way, we can all plagerise the many sites out there. Try and come up with something original.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

So, who can tell me what the chances are of revoking article 50 are now?

Would this be a Labour / LibDem policy commitment in a GE?

 

Revocation would only be on the back of a second referendum I would have thought.

[RedArmy]

Anne Milton looks like something out of the league of gentlemen.

[Plastic]

Revocation would only be on the back of a second referendum I would have thought.

 

Yes I put cart before horse.

Likelihood of a second ref / manifesto commitment for GE by libdems / labour then?

[Saint86]

Boris continues to play a blinder. Gets rid of the Lib Dem infestation in one day and calls a GE the next day. Follows that up with no deal and a pact with the Brexit party and Corbyn is toast and the Conservatives have a 50 seat majority. I love it...

 

Can't tell if this is sarcasm?

 

Boris is not playing a blinder. He's in a very tough spot as our the Conservatives in general.

 

He has given what power their is to Corbyn in my mind. We now have a government that cannot pass any legislation in the house of commons, and an opposition that has no interest in calling a GE because they know they'll get utterly spanked by the two not so fringe parties (Brexit and Lib dems).

 

To top it off, the remain MP's will now block no deal which completely hamstrings any negotiating position the UK government could hope to have...

 

This whole things seems to careen from bad to worse the longer it goes on.

 

I genuinely fear that the ultimate outcome of all this will be several more months of delays until Labour feel confident they can win (or at least form a coalition government), then a GE and a hung parliment with SNP as king makers. The result of that will be a second referendum in Scotland (who will leave), and they we'll be left with an overwhelmingly Brexit favouring (rest of) UK being led by a lib dem / labour remain government trying to force a second referendum. Its a path that would lead to years more uncertainty and division in society.

 

I have firmly reach the point now where Brexit just needs to happen, preferably with a deal obviously(!), and if I hear one more of these self serving arrogant politicians bang on about blocking no deal I am going to go mad. Their the bloody people who stopped us leaving with a deal!

[Unbelievable Jeff]

Yes I put cart before horse.

Likelihood of a second ref / manifesto commitment for GE by libdems / labour then?

 

Very likely. However, you will see the Lib Dems distance themselves from the Labour party to garner more of their vote in the SW.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

Can't tell if this is sarcasm?

 

Boris is not playing a blinder. He's in a very tough spot as our the Conservatives in general.

 

He has given what power their is to Corbyn in my mind. We now have a government that cannot pass any legislation in the house of commons, and an opposition that has no interest in calling a GE because they know they'll get utterly spanked by the two not so fringe parties (Brexit and Lib dems).

 

To top it off, the remain MP's will now block no deal which completely hamstrings any negotiating position the UK government could hope to have...

 

This whole things seems to careen from bad to worse the longer it goes on.

 

I genuinely fear that the ultimate outcome of all this will be several more months of delays until Labour feel confident they can win (or at least form a coalition government), then a GE and a hung parliment with SNP as king makers. The result of that will be a second referendum in Scotland (who will leave), and they we'll be left with an overwhelmingly Brexit favouring (rest of) UK being led by a lib dem / labour remain government trying to force a second referendum. Its a path that would lead to years more uncertainty and division in society.

 

I have firmly reach the point now where Brexit just needs to happen, preferably with a deal obviously(!), and if I hear one more of these self serving arrogant politicians bang on about blocking no deal I am going to go mad. Their the bloody people who stopped us leaving with a deal!

 

This is what I said on the 14th June - it's getting closer:

 

If I were Boris, I'd let Raab have this one, as whichever Brexiteer wins they will be out within 3 months as they'll have lost a GE.

 

Who they losing as GE to?

 

T

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

It'll be a Labour, SNP, Lib Dem coalition.

[aintforever]

Boris continues to play a blinder. Gets rid of the Lib Dem infestation in one day and calls a GE the next day. Follows that up with no deal and a pact with the Brexit party and Corbyn is toast and the Conservatives have a 50 seat majority. I love it...

 

So a second refurendum is undemocratic but forcing the public to choose between a Corbyn government and no deal is ok?

 

That’s no choice anyone should have to face, If Boris forces that on us I think he will regret it big time.

[ecuk268]

 

I have firmly reach the point now where Brexit just needs to happen, preferably with a deal obviously(!), and if I hear one more of these self serving arrogant politicians bang on about blocking no deal I am going to go mad. Their the bloody people who stopped us leaving with a deal!

 

I'd say it was more Rees-Mogg and his cronies who stopped us leaving. If the Tories had got behind May's deal, we'd be heading for an orderly exit.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

I'd say it was more Rees-Mogg and his cronies who stopped us leaving. If the Tories had got behind May's deal, we'd be heading for an orderly exit.

 

Absolutely. It's pure madness that a lot of the rebels last night have voted for leaving the EU more than the likes of JRM and Steve Baker.

 

If May had expelled her rebels, BOJO wouldn't be PM.

[Guided Missile]

I'd say it was more Rees-Mogg and his cronies who stopped us leaving. If the Tories had got behind May's deal, we'd be heading for an orderly exit.

You're an idiot, as this article proves. It was Labour that stopped the deal.

Iain Duncan Smith, Liam Fox, Michael Gove, Sajid Javid, Boris Johnson, Andrea Leadsom and Jacob Rees-Mogg, amongst many other Conservatives, all voted for May's deal, the last time it was voted upon on March 29th.

[shurlock]

You're an idiot, as this article proves. It was Labour that stopped the deal.

Iain Duncan Smith, Liam Fox, Michael Gove, Sajid Javid, Boris Johnson, Andrea Leadsom and Jacob Rees-Mogg, amongst many other Conservatives, all voted for May's deal, the last time it was voted upon on March 29th.

 

You do realise that if the ERG and DUP had voted for the WA, it would have passed.

[ecuk268]

How could it have been Labour that stopped the deal when 34 Tories voted against it? If they'd toed the party line , it would have passed easily.

 

Maths not your strong point?