Brexit - Post Match Reaction

[shurlock]

I fear you may be mistaking me for someone that has declared they know something about this... Let me reassure you that I know diddly squat about the subject matter under discussion. Apologies for interupting the flow of the usual "I'm right", "No, I'm right", "No, you're wrong", "No, you're wrong" Saintsweb Forum bickering convention

 

I see the great light entertainers of the 80s taught you well – forever the forum crowd-pleaser and consensus-builder

[Guided Missile]

Meanwhile, the latest news from mainland Europe:

 

The German banking system is bust with Deutsche Bank (DB) going from bad to worse. Their bad loans are sufficient to collapse the bank and their derivatives portfolio will bankrupt not just the Bundesbank, but also Germany and the ECB. DB has derivatives of EUR 45 trillion. That is 13x German GDP. This means that when derivatives go no bid, which is virtually certain, the €45 trillion will just disappear into a black hole with zero value. It is not only DB and German banks that are bankrupt, but so are Italian, French, Spanish and Greek banks plus many others. And the ECB is totally bust. It has a balance sheet of EUR 4.7 trillion and 40% of that is loans to EU member states. The capital and reserves of the ECB is EUR 105 billion. So the net worth of the ECB is 2% of the total balance sheet. This means that loan losses of 2% is enough to bankrupt the ECB! The losses are more likely to be 50-100% so the demise of the ECB is certain. Before that they will embark on unlimited money printing.

Glad to see there is another website paying attention to this thread....

 

The message? BUY GOLD....

[shurlock]

Meanwhile, the latest news from mainland Europe:

 

 

Glad to see there is another website paying attention to this thread....

 

The message? BUY GOLD....

 

 

Feel like a swivel but I've got roughly £7K in a gold ETF and I'm sure its a holding in other funds I'm invested in. But that reflects my bearishness about the global economy, not your little fixation with DB.

 

My bet against sterling has been going great guns.

 

Crap website btw and even that you've managed to cherrypick

Edited 7 August, 2019 by shurlock

[trousers]

I see the great light entertainers of the 80s taught you well – forever the forum crowd-pleaser and consensus-builder

 

[Unbelievable Jeff]

Meanwhile, the latest news from mainland Europe:

 

 

Glad to see there is another website paying attention to this thread....

 

The message? BUY GOLD....

 

It will rely on a failure somewhere, probably along the lines of the 6th largest economy in the world going into recession at the end of October...

 

Personally, I don't know enough about Banking to comment, but if the above is from a reputable source, there is likely to be some rocky times ahead for the global economy. If course, the website looks ********, so I'm assuming it's not.

[shurlock]

It will rely on a failure somewhere, probably along the lines of the 6th largest economy in the world going into recession at the end of October...

 

Personally, I don't know enough about Banking to comment, but if the above is from a reputable source, there is likely to be some rocky times ahead for the global economy. If course, the website looks ********, so I'm assuming it's not.

 

Weak productivity, a long in the tooth economic expansion, high debt levels, QE-inflated asset prices, unfavourable demographics and now trade tensions - its not hard to paint a bearish picture (if somewhat extreme) but this isn't simply a European problem, its a global one. Little John struggles with this.

Edited 7 August, 2019 by shurlock

[Unbelievable Jeff]

Weak productivity, a long in the tooth economic expansion, high debt levels, QE-inflated asset prices, unfavourable demographics and now trade tensions - its not hard to paint a bearish picture (if somewhat extreme) but this isn't simply a European problem, its a global one. Little John struggles with this.

 

Oh, it's a global issue for sure. The thing is, all it takes is one issue and it could all come crashing down. The UK leaving the EU could be that butterfly flapping it's wings prior to the downfall of the world economy and capitalism...or something like that.

[so22saint]

Feel like a swivel but I've got roughly £7K in a gold ETF and I'm sure its a holding in other funds I'm invested in. But that reflects my bearishness about the global economy, not your little fixation with DB.

 

My bet against sterling has been going great guns.

 

Crap website btw and even that you've managed to cherrypick

 

Egon was spot on in 2010. oh hang on https://dailyreckoning.com/hyperinflation-guaranteed/

 

I've money in Gold as well but as a traitor, I remain in this ****hole country but my wealth is all elsewhere ;-)

[Guided Missile]

Prior to this thread being hijacked, it is worth remembering its initial premise, back in June, 2016, was not about Brexit vs Remain, as that question was answered in the largest ever referendum in UK history. Rather, it was regarding a potential trade deal with the US, post Brexit:

A Washington based conservative think tank, the Heritage Foundation, published a paper on the best option for the UK, should we leave the EU, focusing on free trade deals. To me, this is the most important thing to get right. (" It's all about the economy, stupid"). In summary, the report states:

 

"The U.S. and the U.K. should negotiate a free trade area based on the principles of national sovereignty and economic freedom.

For both nations, the barrier to this goal is the European Union. Britain cannot negotiate unless it leaves the EU, while the U.S. has wrongly supported the EU over the sovereignty of its member nations.

The U.S. policy of using Britain as its Trojan Horse in the EU is wrong in principle and doomed to failure in practice.

The U.K. must ensure that its referendum on EU membership offers a real choice. There is no reason why the U.K., the world’s sixth-largest economy, cannot negotiate trade arrangements outside the EU.

The benefits of an Anglo–American free trade area would be both economic and political. It would insulate the U.K. from the damaging effects of further EU regulatory interference and signal the two countries’ shared political commitment to their close relationship"

 

I found it exciting and stimulating. Onwards and upwards!

So, over three years on, it appears more and more likely that the post was bang on, as this article by the same author reports from the US.

Don't believe the doomsters: A US-UK trade deal is on the cards for 2020

This week a group of 45 US senators blew these fraudulent claims out of the water. Some of the most powerful men and women on Capitol Hill signed a letter from senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas congratulating Boris Johnson on becoming Prime Minister and offering full US support to the UK over Brexit. They pledged to back a US-UK free trade deal, and to work with the British Government to ensure that there is minimum disruption in the event of a no deal.

 

The journey towards the sunny uplands will begin on November 1st, after three wasted years. The path will be a rocky one for the first few miles, but the British people will come together and prosper, as they always do and this thread can die at the same time as the Brexit party....

[badgerx16]

Prior to this thread being hijacked, it is worth remembering its initial premise, back in June, 2016, was not about Brexit vs Remain, as that question was answered in the largest ever referendum in UK history. Rather, it was regarding a potential trade deal with the US, post Brexit:

 

So, over three years on, it appears more and more likely that the post was bang on, as this article by the same author reports from the US.

 

 

The journey towards the sunny uplands will begin on November 1st, after three wasted years. The path will be a rocky one for the first few miles, but the British people will come together and prosper, as they always do and this thread can die at the same time as the Brexit party....

 

How does that square against the this report ?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/31/brexit-mess-with-good-friday-and-well-block-uk-trade-deal-us-politicians-warn

 

"Any future US-UK trade deal would almost certainly be blocked by the US Congress if Brexit affects the Irish border"

[Nolan]

How does that square against the this report ?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/31/brexit-mess-with-good-friday-and-well-block-uk-trade-deal-us-politicians-warn

 

"Any future US-UK trade deal would almost certainly be blocked by the US Congress if Brexit affects the Irish border"

Hint. It won't effect the Irish border.

[Guided Missile]

How does that square against the this report ?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/31/brexit-mess-with-good-friday-and-well-block-uk-trade-deal-us-politicians-warn

 

"Any future US-UK trade deal would almost certainly be blocked by the US Congress if Brexit affects the Irish border"

 

Obviously you didn't read the article I cited :

 

The Senate letter was also an emphatic rebuttal of the empty threats against a UK trade deal from Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the House, who has sought to link such a deal to the Irish border issue. Despite limited opposition inside the Washington Beltway to a UK trade agreement from some liberal politicians, it is hard to see why Congress would derail a deal with America’s closest ally, especially one that would create jobs for American workers and benefit US firms, as well as their British counterparts. It is significant that the new Senate UK Trade Caucus is bipartisan, with Republican and Democratic co-chairs.

[badgerx16]

Obviously you didn't read the article I cited :

I can't as I refuse to register for that Tory propaganda outlet, and without registering I can only see the first paragraph.

[badgerx16]

Hint. It won't effect the Irish border.

 

United Ireland it is then.

[Guided Missile]

I can't as I refuse to register for that Tory propaganda outlet, and without registering I can only see the first paragraph.

Then read the letter from the US Senate, referred to in the Telegraph, here. I was able to get to it, through the Guardian, that carried the same story as the Telegraph, here.

[Guided Missile]

A great article, here, regarding US/UK cooperation. A pity the EU didn't take the same approach.

 

Of course, much US coverage of Britain and Brexit is whining, tedious, and negative. You can always rely on the New York Times — the Guardian of the United States — to argue that anyone who supported Brexit is as hypocritical as they are stupid. But as in Britain, once you get away from the Remainer core for whom all alternatives to the EU are self-evidently foolish, people in the US can see Brexit for the opportunity it is. Part of that, of course, is a trading opportunity. As Senator Portman put it, we have the opportunity to negotiate a “mutually-beneficial trade agreement” that also reaffirms the wider Anglo-American alliance and partnership. Or, as his colleague Senator Coons rightly says, the fact that thousands of American businesses already depend on “fair and open trade with the UK” makes it all the more important to negotiate a deal. Those considerations alone make it right for the US to make “a unified effort to push for an expeditious agreement,” as the Senators jointly put. But there is more to it than just that. It’s not every day that the world’s fifth or sixth largest economy has the chance to draw up its trade policy from scratch. It’s especially not every day when that great economy is one of the most law-abiding, open, and historically liberal nations in the world.

[Whitey Grandad]

A great article, here, regarding US/UK cooperation. A pity the EU didn't take the same approach.

The US sees us as turkeys ripe for plucking.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

The journey towards the sunny uplands will begin on November 1st, after three wasted years. The path will be a rocky one for the first few miles, but the British people will come together and prosper, as they always do and this thread can die at the same time as the Brexit party....

 

...and the majority of the Brexit voters.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

Hint. It won't effect the Irish border.

 

How will it not - what is the solution?

[Unbelievable Jeff]

The US sees us as turkeys ripe for plucking.

 

I think you mean chlorinated chickens...

[Tamesaint]

...

[Tamesaint]

 

 

The journey towards the sunny uplands will begin on November 1st, after three wasted years. The path will be a rocky one for the first few miles, but the British people will come together and prosper, as they always do and this thread can die at the same time as the Brexit party....

 

Any idea how long the "first few miles" will take to navigate??

[Guided Missile]

The US sees us as turkeys ripe for plucking.

Whereas the EU have been more than fair...

[Guided Missile]

Any idea how long the "first few miles" will take to navigate??

No more than a year, in my opinion, after a proper Conservative government, under Winston Johnson, wins a large majority in November and defeats the Marxist, antisemitic horde.

[Whitey Grandad]

Whereas the EU have been more than fair...

We ARE the EU.

[Whitey Grandad]

How will it not - what is the solution?

 

 

The only solution is for Northern Ireland to remain in the same regulatory sphere as the Single Market and that means EU or EEA/EFTA

[Plastic]

Recession, anyone?

[Unbelievable Jeff]

Recession, anyone?

 

2 quarters - but considering that the next quarter will run up to our supposed Brexit, we will definitely see a decline there...

[Plastic]

2 quarters - but considering that the next quarter will run up to our supposed Brexit, we will definitely see a decline there...

 

Indeed. Anybody think we will have a storming Q3?

[Guided Missile]

Recession, anyone?

Ich werde einen haben

[Whitey Grandad]

Ich werde einen haben

 

“werde” oder “würde” ?

[Guided Missile]

I love the French. Here Jean-Marc Puissesseau, president of Port Boulogne Calais. comments on the effect of no-deal on the Port of Dover:

 

"The British authorities have been doing a great deal to prepare. People say they are asleep but I can assure you that they are highly professional and they are ready," said Jean-Marc Puissesseau, president of Port Boulogne Calais. "There are certain individuals in the UK who are whipping up this catastrophism for their own reasons. This has provoked a lot of concern but basically ‘c’est la bullsh**’. Nothing is going to happen the day after Brexit," he told The Telegraph.

 

‘c’est la bullsh**’...

[shurlock]

I love the French. Here Jean-Marc Puissesseau, president of Port Boulogne Calais. comments on the effect of no-deal on the Port of Dover:

 

 

 

‘c’est la bullsh**’...

 

We’ve been here before pal yet your memory is either failing you or you truly have gone swivel.

 

http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87286

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87112

[badgerx16]

We’ve been here before pal yet your memory is either failing you or you truly have gone swivel.

 

http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87286

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87112

 

Perhaps "Nothing is going to happen the day after Brexit," is actually accurate; no traffic passing customs checks in Calais, no ferries loading, no Eurostar trains passing through the tunnel.

[Guided Missile]

Of course, if the leaving date had been March, it is acknowledged that we wouldn't have been ready. In today's article in the Telegraph, Jean-Marc Puissesseau acknowledged that a no-deal Brexit in March would have been a hair-raising experience. "That would have been a huge problem because nobody believed it was going to happen and they were all dragging their feet. But we have seven more months and this time they are getting ready," he said.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

Of course, if the leaving date had been March, it is acknowledged that we wouldn't have been ready. In today's article in the Telegraph, Jean-Marc Puissesseau acknowledged that a no-deal Brexit in March would have been a hair-raising experience. "That would have been a huge problem because nobody believed it was going to happen and they were all dragging their feet. But we have seven more months and this time they are getting ready," he said.

 

You guys didn't acknowledge that, at all. You guys wanted to jump off the deep end in March, so failing to see what your point is.

[ashnats]

Indeed. Anybody think we will have a storming Q3?

 

I don’t know, but the stockpiling for nodeal might give enough of a bump. Q2 was partly so bad because of the q1 stockpiling which shifted a lot of potential q2 growth into q1, so we might see the same?

[Guided Missile]

We’ve been here before pal yet your memory is either failing you or you truly have gone swivel.

 

http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87286

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87112

Even by your standards, Herbert, that is a totally embarrassing post and two sh! te references. Richard A. E. North aka Muckspreader and I'm a swivel..?? .

[shurlock]

Even by your standards, Herbert, that is a totally embarrassing post and two sh! te references. Richard A. E. North aka Muckspreader and I'm a swivel..?? .

 

Missing the point yet again JJ.

 

I quote North only because he is a die-hard Brexiter yet even he can see through the massive con job that you've fallen for.

 

He's not a remoaner, a champion of project fear or a traitor. He is the Mick Strickland of Brexiters (for any London saints out there) who's supported leaving the EU longer than you and Les have had hot dinners (and that's saying something old boy) but understands that disentangling 40 years of integration is not straightforward and that promising the undeliverable may ultimately put Brexit itself at risk.

 

FWIW North coined the Flexcit concept back in 2014 which you subsequently supported -the idea that the UK might have to do a Norway or Iceland and remain in the single market, “at least in the medium term” as it negotiated a future arrangement with the EU. Indeed, in most serious commentators eyes, it remains the most credible strategy for leaving the EU. Either you think his arguments are ***** or you disavow what you've written on here. Not the first time you've tied yourself up in knots pal

Edited 11 August, 2019 by shurlock

[Guided Missile]

Missing the point yet again JJ.

You failed to make a point, Herbert. Been on the vodka?

[Cosham Scientist]

Good heavens! My old account still works! Interesting to see a majority of remainers here. Interesting to see GM taking his usual hard line.

[Whitey Grandad]

Missing the point yet again JJ.

 

I quote North only because he is a die-hard Brexiter yet even he can see through the massive con job that you've fallen for.

 

He's not a remoaner, a champion of project fear or a traitor. He is the Mick Strickland of Brexiters (for any London saints out there) who's supported leaving the EU longer than you and Les have had hot dinners (and that's saying something old boy) but understands that disentangling 40 years of integration is not straightforward and that promising the undeliverable may ultimately put Brexit itself at risk.

 

FWIW North coined the Flexcit concept back in 2014 which you subsequently supported -the idea that the UK might have to do a Norway or Iceland and remain in the single market, “at least in the medium term” as it negotiated a future arrangement with the EU. Indeed, in most serious commentators eyes, it remains the most credible strategy for leaving the EU. Either you think his arguments are ***** or you disavow what you've written on here. Not the first time you've tied yourself up in knots pal

Dr. Richard North has probably done more research on leaving the EU than anybody else. I read his blog daily and there is a wealth of information on there from all sides of the argument. I highly recommend it.

[Tamesaint]

Has anyone seen or heard from Lord Pony lately? I fear for this man's blood pressure and overall wellbeing when he reads about this:

 

BBC News - Green MP Caroline Lucas calls for all-female emergency cabinet

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49314840

[Wes Tender]

Has anyone seen or heard from Lord Pony lately? I fear for this man's blood pressure and overall wellbeing when he reads about this:

 

BBC News - Green MP Caroline Lucas calls for all-female emergency cabinet

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49314840

 

I expect he's rolling on the floor laughing, like I did when I heard about this. It's pure comedy gold.

[badgerx16]

I wonder if this will lose Farage, ( rhymes with garage ), some of his support;

 

"Meghan has made Prince Harry less popular, says Farage"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49317656

[hypochondriac]

I wonder if this will lose Farage, ( rhymes with garage ), some of his support;

 

"Meghan has made Prince Harry less popular, says Farage"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49317656

I doubt it because he's correct. Identity politics and woke culture will harm anyone's popularity, particularly if you are in the Royal family and give the impression you are looking down on everyone else.

[hypochondriac]

Has anyone seen or heard from Lord Pony lately? I fear for this man's blood pressure and overall wellbeing when he reads about this:

 

BBC News - Green MP Caroline Lucas calls for all-female emergency cabinet

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49314840

The naked hypocrisy of this sort of thing is amazing. Could you imagine what Lucas would say if an all male so called "unity" government was proposed? Because in my experience men are just a bit better at getting things done. There would be absolute outrage and rightly so. It's a bit hard for self-confessed feminists like Lucas to claim they aren't anti-men and then to propose something like this simply because in her view "women"- any women- are just superior. I don't think anyone can seriously suggest the likes of Soubry are more competent than someone like Ken Clarke based on what she has between her legs. Edited 12 August, 2019 by hypochondriac

[Wade Garrett]

Anyone else see the hypocrisy in Tom Watson not supporting a ‘People Vote’ for indyref2 in Scotland?

[Unbelievable Jeff]

The naked hypocrisy of this sort of thing is amazing. Could you imagine what Lucas would say if an all male so called "unity" government was proposed? Because in my experience men are just a bit better at getting things done. There would be absolute outrage and rightly so. It's a bit hard for self-confessed feminists like Lucas to claim they aren't anti-men and then to propose something like this simply because in her view "women"- any women- are just superior. I don't think anyone can seriously suggest the likes of Soubry are more competent than someone like Ken Clarke based on what she has between her legs.

 

She should be reported for sexism.

 

 

And I'm only half joking really. It's a stupid thing to say, and she should probably resign.

Edited 12 August, 2019 by Unbelievable Jeff

[Unbelievable Jeff]

Anyone else see the hypocrisy in Tom Watson not supporting a ‘People Vote’ for indyref2 in Scotland?

 

Yep. They should be allowed a second vote as the circumstances and education of voters have changed, same as with Brexit.