Brexit - Post Match Reaction

[Batman]

pretty much everyone outside the big two parties had reason to be happy. This little piece in the Guardian sums it up in the end

 

Potentially most significantly, the share of the two unambiguously pro-Brexit parties – the Brexit party and Ukip – was 34.9%, markedly lower than the aggregate total of the pro-second referendum parties (the Lib Dems, Greens, Change UK, the Scottish National party and Plaid) at 40.3%.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/five-things-we-have-learned-from-uks-europe-elections/ar-AABXef5?ocid=spartandhp

 

kind of magic thinking that would suggest liverpool won the league

[Tamesaint]

Being a pinko snowflake Remoaner my fear has been that a People's Vote would lead to another Leave vote. After these results those fears have gone.

 

In the 2016 referendum the comparative lack of passion behind Remain was a critical factor. Remain voters now seem to be galvanised so that the Remain parties's combined vote easily outnumbered the Brexit/UKIP vote.

 

Bring on the People's Vote.

[Tamesaint]

kind of magic thinking that would suggest liverpool won the league

 

I don't understand. Please explain why this is the same logic.

[shurlock]

kind of magic thinking that would suggest liverpool won the league

 

Trying to give Jeff a run for his money in crap analogies. I’d say yours is worse. Head’s gone

Edited 27 May, 2019 by shurlock

[Batman]

I don't understand. Please explain why this is the same logic.

 

This was not a in/out referendum

what about tribal votes? what about those who voted leave but vote green in every other elections because of their stance on environmental issues?

why are the tory/labour votes discounted in these magic comparisons? Both are (officially) for leaving.

What if those who voted Libdem simply didn't know what they were voting for?

 

does not take into account that although it was an improved, it was a low turnout.

 

whoever wins the Peterborough election in a couple of weeks will spin this just the same. and round we go again!

[Batman]

Trying to give Jeff a run for his money in crap analogies. I’d say yours is worse. Head’s gone

 

 

London are premier league champions! Arsenal, Spurs, Chelsea and West ham accumulated more points than any single team ffs

[shurlock]

Being a pinko snowflake Remoaner my fear has been that a People's Vote would lead to another Leave vote. After these results those fears have gone.

 

In the 2016 referendum the comparative lack of passion behind Remain was a critical factor. Remain voters now seem to be galvanised so that the Remain parties's combined vote easily outnumbered the Brexit/UKIP vote.

 

Bring on the People's Vote.

 

And there are even smaller numbers supporting a WTO Brexit. MPs can feel vindicated and legitimised in their efforts to block no deal.

 

Please, please, please can the swivels in the Conservative Party membership vote in a hardliner. It might actually force a conclusion to the issue and bury them in the process.

Edited 27 May, 2019 by shurlock

[shurlock]

 

London are premier league champions! Arsenal, Spurs, Chelsea and West ham accumulated more points than any single team ffs

 

 

The Brexit Party are the largest single party in the EP, ergo they are Man City or winners of the Champions League. Why hasnt the rest of the EU given them a guard of honour. They get to call the shots. Because that’s how politics and proportional representation work. You’re having a mare

[Tamesaint]

This was not a in/out referendum

what about tribal votes? what about those who voted leave but vote green in every other elections because of their stance on environmental issues?

why are the tory/labour votes discounted in these magic comparisons? Both are (officially) for leaving.

What if those who voted Libdem simply didn't know what they were voting for?

 

does not take into account that although it was an improved, it was a low turnout.

 

whoever wins the Peterborough election in a couple of weeks will spin this just the same. and round we go again!

 

Where to begin:

 

The way that the Labour vote collapsed would indicate that it was just the members who voted Labour. Over 75% of Labour members want to remain.

 

Lib Dem leavers - hmmm. Which part of the Lib Dems manifesto title "******** to Brexit" do you think that Lib Dem leavers didn't understand? Any Lib Dem voter who didn't understand that they have been a pro Europe party must have been asleep for the past 10 plus years.

 

Green voters who want to Leave. They vote Green on environmental issues but want to vote Leave? Hmmm. I bet there are loads of those. Have you seen the Green campaign literature or Farage's views on climate change?

 

Tribal votes??? The way that the Tories and Labour vote collapsed would suggest that there were not many tribal voters in this election.

 

Farage did a remarkable job in motivating his vote. Do you honestly think that he motivated many people this time who didn't turn out but would turn out in a referendum ? A larger turnout would most likely dilute the Brexit vote.

 

 

I could go on but it is a bit like shooting fish in a barrel.

 

Sorry mate but your head's definitely gone.

Edited 27 May, 2019 by Tamesaint

[Batman]

Where to begin:

 

 

I could go on but it is a bit like shooting fish in a barrel. I think your logic is twisted.

 

Sorry mate but your head's definitely gone.

 

Tory are pro brexit and so are labour (officially)

so, why not include their 23% on the pro-brexit comparison?

 

I personally believe these daft comparisons are pointless, but there you go

[shurlock]

In other news, pro-EU parties held ground across Europe while Eurosceptic and far-right parties made only modest gains (and most of them no longer want to leave the EU or the Euro) and underperformed expectations. By contrast, some of the biggest gains were made by the Greens.

 

Remember when we were told (admittedly by Jihadi John who’s wrong about nearly everything) that Brexit and the referendum had set off an earthquake across the entire continent and would lead to the collapse of the EU.

 

Still waiting...

[CB Fry]

Tory are pro brexit and so are labour (officially)

so, why not include their 23% on the pro-brexit comparison?

 

I personally believe these daft comparisons are pointless, but there you go

And 80% of the electorate voted for leave parties in the last general election etc etc but that exact parliament that those exact people voted for is often described as a, er, remain parliament.

 

Complicated, ain't it.

[shurlock]

And 80% of the electorate voted for leave parties in the last general election etc etc but that exact parliament that those exact people voted for is often described as a, er, remain parliament.

 

Complicated, ain't it.

 

Can you come up with a football analogy so that Jamie can follow.

[benjii]

Oh Happy day....: smug:

 

Why are you happy?

[whelk]

Can you come up with a football analogy so that Jamie can follow.

 

Nigel Farage is Luis Suarez.

[whelk]

In other news, pro-EU parties held ground across Europe while Eurosceptic and far-right parties made only modest gains (and most of them no longer want to leave the EU or the Euro) and underperformed expectations. By contrast, some of the biggest gains were made by the Greens.

 

Remember when we were told (admittedly by Jihadi John who’s wrong about nearly everything) that Brexit and the referendum had set off an earthquake across the entire continent and would lead to the collapse of the EU.

 

Still waiting...

 

The floodgates are opening .....

 

[Tamesaint]

The floodgates are opening .....

 

 

Piano wire manufacturers are going to be busy.

[sadoldgit]

This was not a in/out referendum

what about tribal votes? what about those who voted leave but vote green in every other elections because of their stance on environmental issues?

why are the tory/labour votes discounted in these magic comparisons? Both are (officially) for leaving.

What if those who voted Libdem simply didn't know what they were voting for?

 

does not take into account that although it was an improved, it was a low turnout.

 

whoever wins the Peterborough election in a couple of weeks will spin this just the same. and round we go again!

 

Are you getting your Union Jack knickers in a twist because you realise that Remain could well win another public vote?

If you Brexiters are so sure of your position you should have nothing to fear, surely?

Shame about Tommy by the way.

[RedArmy]

‘Nobody wants no deal’

[Wes Tender]

There have been a lot of Remoaner sore losers on here this morning, trying to put a brave face on it. It's all very amusing following the reasoning that attempts to turn a massive defeat for the two main parties into some sort of victory for remain.

[Lighthouse]

There have been a lot of Remoaner sore losers on here this morning, trying to put a brave face on it. It's all very amusing following the reasoning that attempts to turn a massive defeat for the two main parties into some sort of victory for remain.

 

I don’t think the results have proven anything other than voters are moving to the polarised ends of the spectrum. Hard Brexit have made massive gains, as have hard remain Lib/Green/SNP.

 

It’s the squashy, middle ground, trying to please everyone parties who have lost out.

[shurlock]

There have been a lot of Remoaner sore losers on here this morning, trying to put a brave face on it. It's all very amusing following the reasoning that attempts to turn a massive defeat for the two main parties into some sort of victory for remain.

 

Les, I read your last sentence over and over but still couldn’t make head or tail of it.

 

So staunch remain parties outnumbered staunch Brexit ones, though the margins were ultimately small. More significant, a larger number rejected a no-deal WTO Brexit. As I say please please and pretty please, vote for a hardliner in the upcoming leadership election - it’s quite amusing watch you dig your own grave while the rest of us barely have to move a muscle

Edited 27 May, 2019 by shurlock

[RedArmy]

“Hard remain” There’s only one type of remain. Have you added the ‘hard’ to compete with hard brexit?

[shurlock]

I don’t think the results have proven anything other than voters are moving to the polarised ends of the spectrum. Hard Brexit have made massive gains, as have hard remain Lib/Green/SNP.

 

It’s the squashy, middle ground, trying to please everyone parties who have lost out.

 

Or the parties that are charged with the complex task of governing the country and understand that compromise is the only way out of this mess. Its pretty easy to be an insurgent party and shout from the sidelines and not have to take responsibility for your actions.

[shurlock]

Swivel-eyed. Quite literally.

 

[Lighthouse]

“Hard remain” There’s only one type of remain. Have you added the ‘hard’ to compete with hard brexit?

 

I’ll rephrase, the remain voters who would usually vote Lab/Con but instead have backed the Libs and their ‘******** to Brexit.’

 

Or the parties that are charged with the complex task of governing the country and understand that compromise is the only way out of this mess. Its pretty easy to be an insurgent party and shout from the sidelines and not have to take responsibility for your actions.

 

True but the fact that they’ve failed to do so and couldn’t come up with anything in the negotiation has simply pushed voters away.

 

You only have to look at Trump to see how far brash promises can get you with voters.

[badgerx16]

There have been a lot of Remoaner sore losers on here this morning, trying to put a brave face on it. It's all very amusing following the reasoning that attempts to turn a massive defeat for the two main parties into some sort of victory for remain.

Other than their eponymous title, what exactly are the Brexit party's policies ?

[Saint_clark]

Hmmm.

 

Sent from my SM-J600FN using Tapatalk

[shurlock]

Hmmm.

 

Sent from my SM-J600FN using Tapatalk

 

Where's the methodology for this?

 

I've heard others absolutely tearing this analysis to shreds on the radio - saying the leave-remain splits for each party are based on past and thus outdated voting data produced under very different political and economic conditions, so cannot be be extrapolated from. Thus, the lib dems have become far more radical in their support for remaining in the EU in the past three years and their voting base has shifted accordingly. This is especially the case in a one-off contest like the 2019 EU elections which Farage has called a pseudo-referendum. So the idea that roughly a third of their vote in the EU elections was made up of leave votes is for the birds.

 

If you have the methodology, would be interested in seeing it.

Edited 27 May, 2019 by shurlock

[Lighthouse]

I like that 5% of UKIP supposedly want to remain.

[whelk]

“Hard remain” There’s only one type of remain. Have you added the ‘hard’ to compete with hard brexit?

 

Have you got voices in your head? Or are you just an incoherent simpleton?

[whelk]

Swivel-eyed. Quite literally.

 

 

Phwooooarrr

[Batman]

Are you getting your Union Jack knickers in a twist because you realise that Remain could well win another public vote?

If you Brexiters are so sure of your position you should have nothing to fear, surely?

Shame about Tommy by the way.

I don't fear anything, if there is another vote, so be it.

not that I believe there will or should there be, it will solve anything.

 

Genuine question, with these weird comparisons, any provision made for the 2m EU citizens who voted who (probably) can't vote in a General Election and any second vote?

[buctootim]

I like that 5% of UKIP supposedly want to remain.

 

Not really related to last night - but in general if you analyse what people believe in and what parties stand for, around 40% of people vote for the wrong party.

[buctootim]

Swivel-eyed. Quite literally.

 

 

I say that interview live last night. She's definitely on that slope that leads to hoarding your used incontinence pads.

[CB Fry]

9.49m votes for parties against either no-deal, or against Brexit altogether.

 

5.9m votes for parties supporting no deal.

 

Will of the people etc.

[Highfield Saint]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/26/scottish-thatcherite-who-lives-in-france-becomes-brexit-party-mep

 

gravy train...

[Saint86]

I thought the results made a very good case for not having a second referendum. It was clear that we have to extreme and irreconcilable views - anyone who wanted a second ref gave their vote to liberals/greens/change Uk / Plaid, or SNP. Yet that vote share was about equal to the no deal brexit vote.

 

In the middle you've got the remaining tory and labour voters who just want this whole thing dealt with so we can move on and govern the rest of the country.

 

Labour are in serious trouble, they can't afford to go for a second referendum because they will be annihilated up north as a result, and equally, it will not now distinguish them from the liberals or greens. Round of a applause to Jezza there.

 

God knows what will happen to the tories.

 

And if we have a second referendum, then scotland has a second referendum and leaves... at which point, the vast majority of the england and wales supports either brexit or no deal brexit.

 

Also very clear that failure to deliver brexit (or go back on it altogether) puts farage in No.10 with a massive majority.

 

A right fine mess. Best deliver a brexit deal and move on whilst their is still a parliamentary term that can be used for other things....!!

[hypochondriac]

Let's just suppose there is another referendum and remain wins. No one seriously thinks that will just be the end of the matter and we can move on do they?

[shurlock]

Let's just suppose there is another referendum and remain wins. No one seriously thinks that will just be the end of the matter and we can move on do they?

 

Unless its a decisive winning margin. Which is unlikely. Compromise is the only way out of this mess. The media stoking up the fence-sitting narrative of the two main parties doesn't help.

[badgerx16]

 

And if we have a second referendum, then scotland has a second referendum

 

How does that automatically follow ? Are you assuming that a 2nd Brexit vote would reinforce the result of the first one ?

[shurlock]

I thought the results made a very good case for not having a second referendum. It was clear that we have to extreme and irreconcilable views - anyone who wanted a second ref gave their vote to liberals/greens/change Uk / Plaid, or SNP. Yet that vote share was about equal to the no deal brexit vote.

 

In the middle you've got the remaining tory and labour voters who just want this whole thing dealt with so we can move on and govern the rest of the country.

 

Labour are in serious trouble, they can't afford to go for a second referendum because they will be annihilated up north as a result, and equally, it will not now distinguish them from the liberals or greens. Round of a applause to Jezza there.

 

God knows what will happen to the tories.

 

And if we have a second referendum, then scotland has a second referendum and leaves... at which point, the vast majority of the england and wales supports either brexit or no deal brexit.

 

Also very clear that failure to deliver brexit (or go back on it altogether) puts farage in No.10 with a massive majority.

 

A right fine mess. Best deliver a brexit deal and move on whilst their is still a parliamentary term that can be used for other things....!!

 

Farage in No.10? Trying to outdo Guided Missile in batsh*t mental predictions?

[badgerx16]

Also very clear that failure to deliver brexit (or go back on it altogether) puts farage in No.10 with a massive majority.

Not a chance. In a GE most of his support will return to supporting their appropriate be-ribboned donkey.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

I thought the results made a very good case for not having a second referendum. It was clear that we have to extreme and irreconcilable views - anyone who wanted a second ref gave their vote to liberals/greens/change Uk / Plaid, or SNP. Yet that vote share was about equal to the no deal brexit vote.

 

In the middle you've got the remaining tory and labour voters who just want this whole thing dealt with so we can move on and govern the rest of the country.

 

Labour are in serious trouble, they can't afford to go for a second referendum because they will be annihilated up north as a result, and equally, it will not now distinguish them from the liberals or greens. Round of a applause to Jezza there.

 

God knows what will happen to the tories.

 

And if we have a second referendum, then scotland has a second referendum and leaves... at which point, the vast majority of the england and wales supports either brexit or no deal brexit.

 

Also very clear that failure to deliver brexit (or go back on it altogether) puts farage in No.10 with a massive majority.

 

A right fine mess. Best deliver a brexit deal and move on whilst their is still a parliamentary term that can be used for other things....!!

 

Farage in number 10? Not a ****ing chance mate.

 

Voting to leave the EU cos you're a bit racist is very different to voting for someone like that in a GE.

[hypochondriac]

Unless its a decisive winning margin. Which is unlikely. Compromise is the only way out of this mess. The media stoking up the fence-sitting narrative of the two main parties doesn't help.

Even if it was a decisive margin, it is going to be massively less people than the original vote so it won't be accepted by loads of people. I'm not sure how anyone can successfully compromise in a way that doesn't make both sides hate whatever they come up with- as May has shown.

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

I would recommend that somebody goes to Brussels discreetly and does what Cameron could not achieve and negotiate more relaxed clauses on freedom of movement. The leave vote will provide the added leverage needed. With these won you could justify going to a second referendum because the circumstances have changed. That should give a 45-55 vote in favour of remain.

[Baird of the land]

I would recommend that somebody goes to Brussels discreetly and does what Cameron could not achieve and negotiate more relaxed clauses on freedom of movement. The leave vote will provide the added leverage needed. With these won you could justify going to a second referendum because the circumstances have changed. That should give a 45-55 vote in favour of remain.

 

More nonsense. The Eu has been clear from the start you can’t cut out one of the freedoms and expect the rest of the freedoms.

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

More nonsense. The Eu has been clear from the start you can’t cut out one of the freedoms and expect the rest of the freedoms.

 

I would expect them to be more flexible than you would expect.

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

Lib dems, green, snp, change & plaid were all strongly anti brexit and they outstripped the combined Ukip/brexit party share of the vote.

 

Hook, line and sinker.

 

The one thing that last night showed us was that nothing has changed. Any new referendum would be a knife edge.

[buctootim]

I would expect them to be more flexible than you would expect.

 

I'm amazed there are still people suffering under this delusion after three years. There is no unicorn pick and mix option. Member, associate via EFTA / EEA or Free trade agreement. Thems the choices.