Brexit - Post Match Reaction

[Nordic Saint]

Not her either. Even she thinks it's a bad deal because she can't shake the backstop off.

 

There are few heroes in all this. One though is Yvette Cooper, who's used parliamentary procedure to outwit MAY repeatedly - the last time ambushing her by picking up the Spelman amendment. Her successes reflect the fact, which May has pointlessly tried to ignore, that parliament, not the government, is in control (governments only usually appear to be in control because they command parliamentary majorities).

 

All of which points to one of two conclusions: either May HAS to go to an election or a second referendum vote to break the parliamentary jam; or she accepts that parliament must henceforth take the lead. That means, ultimately, a much softer Brexit.

 

I think you're right. Brexit will lead to the break up of the UK. An independent Scotland will return to the EU. Demands for Irish unification are going to increase too. In some ways the English nationalism which has driven Brexit is similar to the Serbian nationalism which led to the break up of Yugoslavia.

[Nordic Saint]

I feel sorry for Scotland, what did they do to deserve this. I'm sure they would much rather be a part of the EU than the UK. Maybe that will be an eventual consequence, once we have the tech for soft borders, which will be fast-tracked, there will be nothing to stop them, and it may well end up a straightforward decision for the Scottish people.

(Sorry, I seem to have quoted the wrong post earlier)

 

I think you're right. Brexit will lead to the break up of the UK. An independent Scotland will return to the EU. Demands for Irish unification are going to increase too. In some ways the English nationalism which has driven Brexit is similar to the Serbian nationalism which led to the break up of Yugoslavia.

[Window Cleaner]

(Sorry, I seem to have quoted the wrong post earlier)

 

I think you're right. Brexit will lead to the break up of the UK. An independent Scotland will return to the EU. Demands for Irish unification are going to increase too. In some ways the English nationalism which has driven Brexit is similar to the Serbian nationalism which led to the break up of Yugoslavia.

 

Ah there I couldn't say. Aren't there less Scottish Nationalists in this Parliament than in the previos one?

There used to be 54 out of 59 seats but I think they're down to about 35 now. Mind you there are a lot of Independants who's attachments I know little about.

[trousers]

I feel sorry for Scotland, what did they do to deserve this. I'm sure they would much rather be a part of the EU than the UK

 

If the Scots had voted for independence in 2014, then it was a certainty that they would no longer be a member of the EU at the moment they left the UK. Of course, that reality doesn't stop the SNP continuing to pedal the "Scotland being taken out of the EU against our will due to Brexit" mantra whilst drawing a veil over the fact that a different result in the 2014 Scottish referendum would have resulted in the same outcome. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/scottish-eu-independence-referendum-scotland-join-queue-membership-apply-a7627201.html

Edited 20 March, 2019 by trousers

[doddisalegend]

If the Scots had voted for independence in 2014, then it was a certainty that they would no longer be a member of the EU at the moment they left the UK. Of course, that reality doesn't stop the SNP continuing to pedal the "Scotland being taken out of the EU against our will due to Brexit" mantra whilst drawing a veil over the fact that a different result in the 2014 Scottish referendum would have resulted in the same outcome. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/scottish-eu-independence-referendum-scotland-join-queue-membership-apply-a7627201.html

Brexit plays right into the hand of the SNP another independence referendum won't be far behind the UK leaving the EU. Mind you it's extremely undemocratic of the SNP to hold another referendum as they already had one once so should never vote on the issue of independence ever again..ever.

 

Sent from my moto g(6) using Tapatalk

[trousers]

Given the EU don't want the UK to leave, isn't it obvious to them that their best tactic now is to engineer a veto on an extension to article 50? That will just leave 'no deal' and 'article 50 revocation' as the only two options left on the table before 29th March. Given that scenario, isn't it more likely the Commons will vote for revocation, citing it as the lesser of two evils?

 

Et voila....?

 

 

Edit: report being denied by French government

Edited 20 March, 2019 by trousers

[Verbal]

Interesting developments this afternoon. Is the government about to fall?

[trousers]

Tusk: "May's request for a short extension will be acceptable on condition that the Withdrawal Agreement is approved by HoC before 29th March..."

 

Assume that means that Bercow can't now block MV#3 as that EU condition constitutes a significant change in circumstances....?

Edited 20 March, 2019 by trousers

[hypochondriac]

Tusk: "May's request for a short extension will be acceptable on condition that the Withdrawal Agreement is approved by HoC before 29th March..."

 

Assume that means that Bercow can't now block MV#3 as that EU condition constitutes a significant change in circumstances....?

And given that choice, the spineless politicians will line up to pass this turd of a deal. The lowest point for democracy in all our lifetimes.

[trousers]

And given that choice, the spineless politicians will line up to pass this turd of a deal. The lowest point for democracy in all our lifetimes.

 

Tusk has left open the door for a longer extension though (if MV#3 doesn't happen or fails), which some (majority?) of MPs might hold out for?

[Sheaf Saint]

Tusk: "May's request for a short extension will be acceptable on condition that the Withdrawal Agreement is approved by HoC before 29th March..."

 

Assume that means that Bercow can't now block MV#3 as that EU condition constitutes a significant change in circumstances....?

 

Doesn't really alter the substance of the motion being voted on though.

 

And what is the point in even granting an extension if the govt is expected to pass the WA before the current deadline anyway?

[trousers]

what is the point in even granting an extension if the govt is expected to pass the WA before the current deadline anyway?

 

Because there wouldn't be enough time to get the WA legislation in place before 29th March? (i.e. a 'technical extension')

[aintforever]

I'm still not sure how the HOC can vote through a deal they have mostly agreed is bad for the country just because they are scared to let the people have a final say.

 

A second ref is not exactly a great example of democracy but surely it's preferable to a collective act of self harm. In the short term the MPs might claim credit for acting out the will of the people but long term, if it f*cks the country up then they will pay the price.

[badgerx16]

Tusk: "May's request for a short extension will be acceptable on condition that the Withdrawal Agreement is approved by HoC before 29th March..."

 

Assume that means that Bercow can't now block MV#3 as that EU condition constitutes a significant change in circumstances....?

No, the Speaker's ruling refers to the content of the WA, which would be presented in exactly the same form as the last vote. I think that a revocation of A50 is fast becoming the outcome of last resort, and then the Magic Roundabout can start all over again.

[badgerx16]

I'm still not sure how the HOC can vote through a deal they have mostly agreed is bad for the country just because they are scared to let the people have a final say.

I wouldn't describe it as 'mostly', it was 'overwhelmingly' rejected, twice.

[trousers]

No, the Speaker's ruling refers to the content of the WA, which would be presented in exactly the same form as the last vote. I think that a revocation of A50 is fast becoming the outcome of last resort, and then the Magic Roundabout can start all over again.

I agree that revocation is looking like the most likely outcome now, and the EU have kindly teed up a 'Here, you can even blame it on us' olive branch. I feel it also means we could revoke A50 "in good faith" thus leaving May also to appease the brexiteers that this isn't necessarily the end game.

 

Maybe. Maybe not. Who the **** knows?!

[Window Cleaner]

I agree that revocation is looking like the most likely outcome now, and the EU have kindly teed up a 'Here, you can even blame it on us' olive branch. I feel it also means we could revoke A50 "in good faith" thus leaving May also to appease the brexiteers that this isn't necessarily the end game.

 

Maybe. Maybe not. Who the **** knows?!

 

That really isn't going to happen. There will be riots in the streets if bully EU gets it's way.

As you know I live in France and here just now we are seeing the results of people having the impression that they're not being listened to, and take my word for it, it is ugly, every bloody week-end for over 3 months now.

The British public voted to leave the EU by a nigh on 4% margin, that needs to happen now, some may not like it but denying the will of the people will end in serious revolt.

Edited 20 March, 2019 by Window Cleaner

[Batman]

That really isn't going to happen. There will be riots in the streets if bully EU gets it's way.

As you know I live in France and here just now we are seeing the results of people having the impression that they're not being listened to, and take my word for it, it is ugly, every bloody week-end for over 3 months now.

The British public voted to leave the EU by a nigh on 4% margin, that needs to happen now, some may not like it but denying the will of the people will end in serious revolt.

 

my father in-law lives in France and he assumed the civil unrest in country would have got decent coverage over here. He was shocked when he found it barely gets a mention in the UK in comparison.

 

in other news, Jezza walked out of a meeting with the PM because Chuka was present. Terrorist and such are fine, throw chuka umuna in the mix. It's a NO from him

[badgerx16]

The UK's no-deal Brexit contingency plan is code-named Operation YellowHammer. The Yellow Hammer is a small bird, whose call is often described as sounding like "A little bit of bread and no cheese". Prophetic ?

[Sheaf Saint]

That really isn't going to happen. There will be riots in the streets if bully EU gets it's way.

As you know I live in France and here just now we are seeing the results of people having the impression that they're not being listened to, and take my word for it, it is ugly, every bloody week-end for over 3 months now.

The British public voted to leave the EU by a nigh on 4% margin, that needs to happen now, some may not like it but denying the will of the people will end in serious revolt.

 

Serious revolt? In good old Blighty? I very much doubt it. There's no appetite for that sort of thing in this country, we're far too passive to take to the streets like they do in France. There will be a bit of unrest, and a few people will get arrested, and it will all blow over in time for people to get home and watch the bake-off.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

my father in-law lives in France and he assumed the civil unrest in country would have got decent coverage over here. He was shocked when he found it barely gets a mention in the UK in comparison.

 

in other news, Jezza walked out of a meeting with the PM because Chuka was present. Terrorist and such are fine, throw chuka umuna in the mix. It's a NO from him

 

So be doesn't like blacks as well as Jews?

[Plastic]

I don’t understand the EU’s ‘UK must approve TM’s deal’ extension caveat.

Isn’t the whole point in needing an extension because we can’t agree on the deal?

Why would we need an extension if the deal has been agreed?

[CB Fry]

May's statement in a nutshell:

 

[hypochondriac]

I don’t understand the EU’s ‘UK must approve TM’s deal’ extension caveat.

Isn’t the whole point in needing an extension because we can’t agree on the deal?

Why would we need an extension if the deal has been agreed?

Because they can't get the deal through in time now.

[trousers]

Surely, by directly slagging off MPs in a live televised appeal to the public this evening, May is a genius and playing a blinder, in the knowledge that this is bound to entrench MPs even further into not supporting her deal, and thus ultimately lead to us staying in the EU (as she privately wants)?

 

Either that or she thinks it'll galvanize support for her deal and she's just a bit dim...?

Edited 20 March, 2019 by trousers

[Tamesaint]

As for you, apparently you haven't cottoned on to the new Party which Farage would lead, the Brexit Party, which was formed to distance itself from UKIP. You also fail to realise that it doesn't matter too much whether people are as precious as you, and see them as too far to the right for your liking or not. Perhaps you have heard about the rise of "populist" parties in many parts of Europe and naively don't think that it could happen here. A vote for either party would mostly be a protest vote to give the two main parties a good kicking for ignoring the Referendum vote. Apart from existing UKIP voters, this vote will come from disaffected Conservative and Labour leave voters, many of them traditional supporters of those parties, but who believe that they have been badly let down by them.

 

Leader of Nigel Farage's party resigns over anti-Islam messages

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/20/leader-of-pro-brexit-party-catherine-blaiklock-resigns-over-anti-islam-messages?

 

Another one of Wes's comments that already looks just a teeny weeny bit wrong : lol:

[shurlock]

Leader of Nigel Farage's party resigns over anti-Islam messages

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/20/leader-of-pro-brexit-party-catherine-blaiklock-resigns-over-anti-islam-messages?

 

Another one of Wes's comments that already looks just a teeny weeny bit wrong : lol:

 

Les crashing out again.

[whelk]

Does Corbyn get worse by the day?

[Jonnyboy]

So be doesn't like blacks as well as Jews?

 

No, that would be Hypochondriac, batman and other Tommy Robinson fans on here.

[doddisalegend]

Remain would win second Brexit referendum but no-deal would get more votes than Theresa May's deal, poll indicates

 

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/brexit/remain-would-win-second-brexit-referendum-but-no-deal-would-get-more-votes-than-theresa-mays-deal-poll-indicates/ar-BBV083p?ocid=spartandhp

 

As the European Union mulls whether to grant the extension, a snap poll by YouGov indicates 61 per cent of the population would vote to remain in the EU rather than for Theresa May’s deal (39 per cent) if a referendum offering those options were called.

 

However, if people were asked in a public vote whether they would prefer to remain in the EU or leave with no deal in place, remain would still win, though by the smaller margin of 57-43 per cent.

 

It shows a 22-point lead for Remain over Ms May’s deal, or a 14-point lead for Remain over no deal at all.

[Weston Super Saint]

 

Either that or she thinks it'll galvanize support for her deal and she's just a bit dim...?

 

Whichever way you look at it, this lady is not for turning!

[sadoldgit]

Whichever way you look at it, this lady is not for turning!

 

This lady needs to resign. Today preferably.

[moonraker]

This lady needs to resign. Today preferably.

 

Instead of going to Brussels she should be going to the Palace to resign, worst PM in history

[Nordic Saint]

Remain would win second Brexit referendum but no-deal would get more votes than Theresa May's deal, poll indicates

 

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/brexit/remain-would-win-second-brexit-referendum-but-no-deal-would-get-more-votes-than-theresa-mays-deal-poll-indicates/ar-BBV083p?ocid=spartandhp

 

As the European Union mulls whether to grant the extension, a snap poll by YouGov indicates 61 per cent of the population would vote to remain in the EU rather than for Theresa May’s deal (39 per cent) if a referendum offering those options were called.

 

However, if people were asked in a public vote whether they would prefer to remain in the EU or leave with no deal in place, remain would still win, though by the smaller margin of 57-43 per cent.

 

It shows a 22-point lead for Remain over Ms May’s deal, or a 14-point lead for Remain over no deal at all.

 

Unfortunately, Brexit is no longer about what the British people want; it's all about Theresa May getting her place in the history books.

[Portugalsaint]

Serious revolt? In good old Blighty? I very much doubt it. There's no appetite for that sort of thing in this country, we're far too passive to take to the streets like they do in France. There will be a bit of unrest, and a few people will get arrested, and it will all blow over in time for people to get home and watch the bake-off.

 

The Poll Tax riots in 1990 caused the PM of the day “to turn”. When the Brits get going, they get going, it just takes something to spur them on. I agree with WC this could be the turning point because of the strong feelings in both camps.

[Window Cleaner]

The Poll Tax riots in 1990 caused the PM of the day “to turn”. When the Brits get going, they get going, it just takes something to spur them on. I agree with WC this could be the turning point because of the strong feelings in both camps.

 

The "Yellow Vests" as the UK populace know them started as a Facebook Group against an upcoming fuel tax hike for supposedly ecological reasons. It was quickly infested by the politicised few and anarchists from here, there and everywhere until you have today's movement with the army on the streets to supposedly protect public buildings because the police and gendarmerie just can't cope any more. Public opinion is a powder keg, just needs a spark to set it off.

[trousers]

Whilst acknowledging that these online petitions are token gestures, I've never seen one go up quite as quickly as this one: https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584

 

(It keeps crashing btw)

 

Edited 21 March, 2019 by trousers

[Unbelievable Jeff]

Whilst acknowledging that these online petitions are token gestures, I've never seen one go up quite as quickly as this one: https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584

 

(It keeps crashing btw)

 

 

680,000 now...

[Unbelievable Jeff]

The "Yellow Vests" as the UK populace know them started as a Facebook Group against an upcoming fuel tax hike for supposedly ecological reasons. It was quickly infested by the politicised few and anarchists from here, there and everywhere until you have today's movement with the army on the streets to supposedly protect public buildings because the police and gendarmerie just can't cope any more. Public opinion is a powder keg, just needs a spark to set it off.

 

Assassination of Nigel Farage?

[trousers]

[Guided Missile]

A petition backed by all of the faces who had been pretending to care about holding another referendum for the sake of ‘democracy’ have been sharing a new petition entitled ‘Revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU.’ They’re not even bothering to pretend to be democrats any more…

The petition saw a suspicious jump in signatures last night, with blatantly fake signatures arising everywhere from Russia, to Afghanistan, to North Korea. Tens of thousands of signatures have also come from EU states including Jean Claude Juncker’s tiny Luxembourg…

 

Suckers...

[Window Cleaner]

A petition backed by all of the faces who had been pretending to care about holding another referendum for the sake of ‘democracy’ have been sharing a new petition entitled ‘Revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU.’ They’re not even bothering to pretend to be democrats any more…

The petition saw a suspicious jump in signatures last night, with blatantly fake signatures arising everywhere from Russia, to Afghanistan, to North Korea. Tens of thousands of signatures have also come from EU states including Jean Claude Juncker’s tiny Luxembourg…

 

Suckers...

 

Ah these petitons remind me of the sign in sheets we had at Imperial (probably would be illegal nowadays). 40 or so presents, 80 or so on the sheet. Profs didn't care anyway, as far as they were concerned you were there to learn and if you didn't turn up that was your problem. Missing tutorials was something else. Stopped your grant for missing 2 without good reason in any term.

[Guided Missile]

Meanwhile, back on Planet Earth, some real statistics. New ONS figures released this morning reveal that borrowing in the current financial year was £23.1bn, £18bn less than a year before:

Two years ago, before the referendum, the Treasury forecast the following:

 

In this scenario net government borrowing would increase by around £24 billion, compared with a vote to remain.

 

Only £42 billion out...

[Unbelievable Jeff]

A petition backed by all of the faces who had been pretending to care about holding another referendum for the sake of ‘democracy’ have been sharing a new petition entitled ‘Revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU.’ They’re not even bothering to pretend to be democrats any more…

The petition saw a suspicious jump in signatures last night, with blatantly fake signatures arising everywhere from Russia, to Afghanistan, to North Korea. Tens of thousands of signatures have also come from EU states including Jean Claude Juncker’s tiny Luxembourg…

 

Suckers...

 

You don't do this kind of thing through petitions - I'm not sure what they expect, the number will still be miniscule compared to the leave vote so it's a bit odd. I don't support it.

 

I do support a series of votes to ascertain the ACTUAL will of the nation though.

 

Vote 1: Leave or Remain (Remain need 55% majority to overturn)

 

If leave

 

Vote 2: Mays Deal, No Deal, New Negotiation

Edited 21 March, 2019 by Unbelievable Jeff

[Unbelievable Jeff]

Meanwhile, back on Planet Earth, some real statistics. New ONS figures released this morning reveal that borrowing in the current financial year was £23.1bn, £18bn less than a year before:

Two years ago, before the referendum, the Treasury forecast the following:

 

 

 

Only £42 billion out...

 

Doesn't take into account further Government cuts though, does it? Just the Status Quo at the time of prediction. Wasn't it pretty much 3 years ago as well?

[Window Cleaner]

You don't do this kind of thing through petitions - I'm not sure what they expect, the number will still be miniscule compared to the leave vote so it's a bit odd. I don't support it.

 

I do support a series of votes to ascertain the ACTUAL will of the nation though.

 

Vote 1: Leave or Remain (Remain need 55% majority to overturn)

 

If leave

 

Vote 2: Mays Deal, No Deal, New Negotiation

 

The time to vote nay or yay was the 23rd June 2016. All of the other petitions and calls for a do-over are pointless.

Anyone can sign an on line petition or or participate in an opinion poll paid for by one party or the other.

I believe that the turn out on that day was about 72%, so those of the 28% non-voters who'd have voted remain are paying the price of apathy.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

The time to vote nay or yay was the 23rd June 2016. All of the other petitions and calls for a do-over are pointless.

Anyone can sign an on line petition or or participate in an opinion poll paid for by one party or the other.

I believe that the turn out on that day was about 72%, so those of the 28% non-voters who'd have voted remain are paying the price of apathy.

 

But surely now we know more information, that vote should be re-run? The vote should have been handled completely different, with the initial vote in 2016 as an advisory vote (as it was) to look into what was possible, and then a further vote once the issues were outlined so the public could decide what they wanted.

 

Just because it was setup badly, does not mean that we should not look to change the process to one that makes sense. The vote, how it has been put together, and implemented, has been fraught with issues because it is a deeply flawed process.

Edited 21 March, 2019 by Unbelievable Jeff

[Highfield Saint]

Meanwhile, back on Planet Earth, some real statistics. New ONS figures released this morning reveal that borrowing in the current financial year was £23.1bn, £18bn less than a year before:

Two years ago, before the referendum, the Treasury forecast the following:

 

In this scenario net government borrowing would increase by around £24 billion, compared with a vote to remain.

 

Only £42 billion out...

 

Surely the key phrase is "compared with a vote to remain" and on that basis had we remained we would have shown a small surplus of c. £1bn

[Highfield Saint]

680,000 now...

 

800,000 and counting...

[Sheaf Saint]

A petition backed by all of the faces who had been pretending to care about holding another referendum for the sake of ‘democracy’ have been sharing a new petition entitled ‘Revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU.’ They’re not even bothering to pretend to be democrats any more…

The petition saw a suspicious jump in signatures last night, with blatantly fake signatures arising everywhere from Russia, to Afghanistan, to North Korea. Tens of thousands of signatures have also come from EU states including Jean Claude Juncker’s tiny Luxembourg…

 

Suckers...

 

So you're dismissing the petition due to the potential for foreign interference in the result, and that's fine. But if you're going to do that, then you also need to consider the well-evidenced widescale foreign interference in the 2016 referendum as well.

 

There was an hour-long piece on the dark money and electoral fraud that went into the Leave campaign on German TV yesterday, which paints a very dire picture of the validity of the result. But I have yet to encounter a single leave voter who is willing to even acknowledge it, let alone accept that it might have influenced the result. No, it's always - "we would have won anyway" or "we won, you lost - get over it".

 

Edit: You only have to look at how widely the petition is being shared on social media, and how passionately some people are promoting it, to see that there is genuine large scale engagement. There may well have been a few bots involved, but this has become the most viral thing I have seen for many years.

Edited 21 March, 2019 by Sheaf Saint